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Exploration Health Risks: Probabilistic Risk Assessment

Maintenance of human health on long-duration exploration missions is a primary challenge to mission designers. Indeed, human health risks are currently the largest risk contributors to the risks of evacuation or loss of the crew on long-duration International Space Station missions. We describe a quantitative assessment of the relative probabilities of occurrence of the individual risks to human safety and efficiency during space flight to augment qualitative assessments used in this field to date. Quantitative probabilistic risk assessments will allow program managers to focus resources on those human health risks most likely to occur with undesirable consequences. Truly quantitative assessments are common, even expected, in the engineering and actuarial spheres, but that capability is just emerging in some arenas of life sciences research, such as identifying and minimize the hazards to astronauts during future space exploration missions. Our expectation is that these results can be used to inform NASA mission design trade studies in the near future with the objective of preventing the higher among the human health risks. We identify and discuss statistical techniques to provide this risk quantification based on relevant sets of astronaut biomedical data from short and long duration space flights as well as relevant analog populations. We outline critical assumptions made in the calculations and discuss the rationale for these. Our efforts to date have focussed on quantifying the probabilities of medical risks that are qualitatively perceived as relatively high risks of radiation sickness, cardiac dysrhythmias, medically significant renal stone formation due to increased calcium mobilization, decompression sickness as a result of EVA (extravehicular activity), and bone fracture due to loss of bone mineral density. We present these quantitative probabilities in order-of-magnitude comparison format so that relative risk can be gauged. We address the effects of conservative and nonconservative assumptions on the probability results. We discuss the methods necessary to assess mission risks once exploration mission scenarios are characterized. Preliminary efforts have produced results that are commensurate with earlier qualitative estimates of risk probabilities in this and other operational contexts, indicating that our approach may be usefully applied in support of the development of human health and performance standards for long-duration space exploration missions. This approach will also enable mission-specific probabilistic risk assessments for space exploration missions.

Rhatigan, Jennifer↗

A cost-effective intelligent robotic system with dual-arm dexterous coordination and real-time vision

Dexterous coordination of manipulators based on the use of redundant degrees of freedom, multiple sensors, and built-in robot intelligence represents a critical breakthrough in development of advanced manufacturing technology. A cost-effective approach for achieving this new generation of robotics has been made possible by the unprecedented growth of the latest microcomputer and network systems. The resulting flexible automation offers the opportunity to improve the product quality, increase the reliability of the manufacturing process, and augment the production procedures for optimizing the utilization of the robotic system. Moreover, the Advanced Robotic System (ARS) is modular in design and can be upgraded by closely following technological advancements as they occur in various fields. This approach to manufacturing automation enhances the financial justification and ensures the long-term profitability and most efficient implementation of robotic technology. The new system also addresses a broad spectrum of manufacturing demand and has the potential to address both complex jobs as well as highly labor-intensive tasks. The ARS prototype employs the decomposed optimization technique in spatial planning. This technique is implemented to the framework of the sensor-actuator network to establish the general-purpose geometric reasoning system. The development computer system is a multiple microcomputer network system, which provides the architecture for executing the modular network computing algorithms. The knowledge-based approach used in both the robot vision subsystem and the manipulation control subsystems results in the real-time image processing vision-based capability. The vision-based task environment analysis capability and the responsive motion capability are under the command of the local intelligence centers. An array of ultrasonic, proximity, and optoelectronic sensors is used for path planning. The ARS currently has 18 degrees of freedom made up by two articulated arms, one movable robot head, and two charged coupled device (CCD) cameras for producing the stereoscopic views, and articulated cylindrical-type lower body, and an optional mobile base. A functional prototype is demonstrated.

Marzwell, Neville I.↗

Combined Electromagnetic and Thermal Design Optimization Studies of In-Slot Cooling for UAM Electric Motors

Urban Air Mobility vehicles will require high specific power and high reliability electric motors. Motor specific power is limited by the temperature limits of stator winding insulation and the motor cooling system’s ability to extract heat from the motor windings. The temperature limits of the stator winding are set by both thermal-chemical aging and thermo-mechanical stresses. In-slot cooling is known to be able to both more effectively reduce the max hotspot temperature in a winding and the thermo-mechanical stress in a winding at a given hotspot temperature relative to external cooling jackets. In this paper, a combined electromagnetic, thermal, and mechanical optimization of in-slot cooled motors for UAM applications is completed. Initial thermal and mechanical studies of in-slot cooling topologies with a reference design were used to down select an in-slot cooled topology for optimization. Optimizations were carried out for both the in-slot cooled topology and a traditional externally cooled motor. Results show that the in-slot cooling topology can achieve a smaller mass than a traditional water jacket cooled design, but at the cost of lower efficiency due to larger required stator thicknesses and correspondingly larger stator iron loss.

Thomas Tallerico↗

NASA’s Strategic Analysis Cycle 2021 (SAC21) Human Mars Architecture

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s (NASA) Mars Architecture Team (MAT) was challenged to develop a mission architecture capable of transporting humans to the surface of Mars and back as fast—and as soon—as practical. This challenge represented a significant departure from previous approaches that minimized Earth-launched mass and maximized in-space transportation efficiency, often resulting in roundtrip missions of three years or more in duration. In the interest of crew health, MAT’s cross-Agency team of subject matter experts was challenged to develop an architecture capable of shortening crew time away from Earth to about two years. MAT was given specific mission constraints, such as number of crew, as well as mandates to minimize surface infrastructure as much as possible and to incorporate nuclear transportation options. The resulting MAT-developed concept, referred to here as the Strategic Analysis Cycle 2021 (SAC21) architecture, leverages Artemis elements and emerging commercial capabilities for cargo and logistics launches, and features a hybrid Nuclear Electric Propulsion (NEP)/Chemical transportation system able to complete the 1.8 billion kilometer round-trip journey to Mars and back in 760 to 850 days transit time for the 2039 Earth departure opportunity. Three Mars Descent Systems (MDS), each capable of landing about 25 metric tons of useful cargo on the surface of Mars, would be pre-deployed in advance of crew departure from Earth; two of these MDS’s would deliver a partially fueled Mars Ascent Vehicle (MAV), a fission power system, surface mobility, and additional MAV propellant. To minimize surface infrastructure, only two of the four Mars crew would descend and live in an MDS-landed pressurized rover, exploring the martian surface for 30 martian days, or sols, before returning to Mars orbit aboard their MAV and rejoining the other two crew on the Deep Space Transport for the Earth return voyage. Specifics of many of these architecture elements are detailed in separate technical publications; this paper outlines the end-to-end integrated architecture performance and concept of operations, including synergies with Artemis lunar architecture elements. It is important to note that NASA does not have a formal human Mars program and no decisions have been made; the architecture described here is intended to fill in an often-overlooked corner of the trade space, helping to complete the menu of options available to decision-makers as they chart the course for humans to Mars.

exploration↗

NASA’s Strategic Analysis Cycle 2021 (SAC21) Human Mars Architecture

[Note: this is the presentation for a companion paper with the following abstract] The National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s (NASA) Mars Architecture Team (MAT) was challenged to develop a mission architecture capable of transporting humans to the surface of Mars and back as fast—and as soon—as practical. This challenge represented a significant departure from previous approaches that minimized Earth-launched mass and maximized in-space transportation efficiency, often resulting in roundtrip missions of three years or more in duration. In the interest of crew health, MAT’s cross-Agency team of subject matter experts was challenged to develop an architecture capable of shortening crew time away from Earth to about two years. MAT was given specific mission constraints, such as number of crew, as well as mandates to minimize surface infrastructure as much as possible and to incorporate nuclear transportation options. The resulting MAT-developed concept, referred to here as the Strategic Analysis Cycle 2021 (SAC21) architecture, leverages Artemis elements and emerging commercial capabilities for cargo and logistics launches, and features a hybrid Nuclear Electric Propulsion (NEP)/Chemical transportation system able to complete the 1.8 billion kilometer round-trip journey to Mars and back in 760 to 850 days transit time for the 2039 Earth departure opportunity. Three Mars Descent Systems (MDS), each capable of landing about 25 metric tons of useful cargo on the surface of Mars, would be pre-deployed in advance of crew departure from Earth; two of these MDS’s would deliver a partially fueled Mars Ascent Vehicle (MAV), a fission power system, surface mobility, and additional MAV propellant. To minimize surface infrastructure, only two of the four Mars crew would descend and live in an MDS-landed pressurized rover, exploring the martian surface for 30 martian days, or sols, before returning to Mars orbit aboard their MAV and rejoining the other two crew on the Deep Space Transport for the Earth return voyage. Specifics of many of these architecture elements are detailed in separate technical publications; this paper outlines the end-to-end integrated architecture performance and concept of operations, including synergies with Artemis lunar architecture elements. It is important to note that NASA does not have a formal human Mars program and no decisions have been made; the architecture described here is intended to fill in an often-overlooked corner of the trade space, helping to complete the menu of options available to decision-makers as they chart the course for humans to Mars. Note: Slide 9 contains a ~2 min video, best viewed when downloaded. Once downloaded to begin video you may be requested to hit options and Trust this document.

Long-duration spaceflight↗

Combined Electromagnetic and Thermal Design Optimization Studies of in-Slot Cooling for UAM Electric Motors

Abstract- Urban Air Mobility vehicles will require high specific power and high reliability electric motors. Motor specific power is limited by the temperature limits of stator windings insulation and the motor cooling system’s ability to extract heat from the motor windings. The temperature limits of the stator winding are set by both thermal-chemical aging and thermo-mechanical stresses. In-slot cooling is known to be able to both more effectively reduce the max hotspot temperature in a winding and the thermo-mechanical stress in a winding at a given hotspot temperature relative to external cooling jackets. In this paper, a combined electromagnetic, thermal, and mechanical optimization of in-slot cooled motors for UAM applications is completed. Initial thermal and mechanical studies of in-slot cooling topologies with a reference design were used to down select an in-slot cooled topology for optimization. Optimizations were carried out for a representative UAM mission profile on both the in-slot cooled topology and a traditional externally cooled motor. Results show that the in-slot cooling topology can achieve a smaller mass than a traditional water jacket cooled design, but at the cost of lower efficiency due larger required stator thicknesses and correspondingly larger stator iron loss.

Thomas Tallerico↗

RApid Blade and Blade-Vortex InTeraction (RABBIT) GUI implementation via MATLAB Application Designer

Rotorcraft noise source identification and reduction is crucial to the emergence of the Urban Air Mobility (UAM) market. One key rotor noise source is Blade Vortex Interaction (BVI), caused by the rotor wake interacting with the rotor blades. The low-fidelity RApid Blade and Blade-Vortex InTeraction (RABBIT) tool was created to predict the location and characteristics of Blade-Vortex Interaction (BVI) noise. RABBIT enables engineers to quickly locate and understand designs or configurations that cause significant BVI noise. Furthermore, RABBIT can identify the time and location of blade overlap for coaxial rotors. RABBIT is not a general acoustic prediction tool, but instead utilizes vortex and wake parameters to visualize and predict only BVI noise. To date, RABBIT has been validated against CAMRAD II and ANOPP2/AARON for three NASA Revolutionary Vertical Lift Technology (RVLT) concept vehicles: the Quiet Single Main Rotor (QSMR), Side-by-Side, and Quadrotor. RABBIT has been shown to be a useful BVI prediction tool capable of visualizing BVI as a function of various parameters. Impulse factor and time rate of change of loading allows for a unique BVI prediction technique that provides information on impulse strength, location, and frequency. This presentation will highlight how MATLAB’s App Designer was utilized to enable users to navigate RABBIT easily and efficiently without prior experience with MATLAB or rotorcraft acoustics. RABBIT users can build and view rotors in real time with options to control blade chord, radius, phasing, and airfoil geometry. Furthermore, multiple rotors can be combined to create state-of-the-art multi-rotor vehicles or fleets. Editable tables, sliding bars, and push buttons were implemented within MATLAB’s App Designer for RABBIT’s GUI to allow engineers and designers to predict low order acoustic impact of BVI occurrences.

Natasha Lydia Schatzman↗

Machine-learning Solution for Automatic Spacesuit Motion Recognition and Measurement from Conventional Video

Extravehicular Activity (EVA) spacesuits exhibit unique movement patterns due to their design characteristics. Mobility assessments using traditional motion capture systems are cost prohibitive and not feasible for some training conditions (e.g., simulated lunar outdoor terrain). This paper aims to present the ongoing development of machine learning solutions to quantify suit motions from conventional videos without special sensors or hardware. Preliminary work into this field was promising but given the fast growth in deep/machine learning technologies, external expertise was sought from open-source communities. Partnerships were formed with the NASA JSC Center of Excellence for Collaborative Innovation (CoCEI) and an execution crowdsourcing platform partner to solicit machine learning framework developments from external contenders. NASA provided contenders with images and video clips of spacesuits with simultaneously measured motion capture data during EVA simulation tasks. The contenders used this data to train and develop generalized algorithms to predict motions. At the end of the crowdsourcing event, the top five solutions were selected from 250 submissions. Each submission was tested and scored using video clips not previously disclosed to the contenders. The weighted scoring metrics measured how well the algorithm detected the suit shape, the 2D suit joint detection accuracy, and 3D joint detection accuracy. The winning solution was able to achieve roughly 85% prediction accuracy. Overall, the algorithms could efficiently detect various types of spacesuits and motions across different EVA environments such as the NASA Active Response Gravity Offload System (ARGOS). After continued improvements and validation, the fully developed system will enable EVA stakeholders to quantify suit kinematic patterns, which can help optimize suit, hardware, and task designs.

Linh Vu↗

Binary Oscillatory Crossflow Electrophoresis

Electrophoresis has long been recognized as an effective analytic technique for the separation of proteins and other charged species, however attempts at scaling up to accommodate commercial volumes have met with limited success. In this report we describe a novel electrophoretic separation technique - Binary Oscillatory Crossflow Electrophoresis (BOCE). Numerical simulations indicate that the technique has the potential for preparative scale throughputs with high resolution, while simultaneously avoiding many problems common to conventional electrophoresis. The technique utilizes the interaction of an oscillatory electric field and a transverse oscillatory shear flow to create an active binary filter for the separation of charged protein species. An oscillatory electric field is applied across the narrow gap of a rectangular channel inducing a periodic motion of charged protein species. The amplitude of this motion depends on the dimensionless electrophoretic mobility, alpha = E(sub o)mu/(omega)d, where E(sub o) is the amplitude of the electric field oscillations, mu is the dimensional mobility, omega is the angular frequency of oscillation and d is the channel gap width. An oscillatory shear flow is induced along the length of the channel resulting in the separation of species with different mobilities. We present a model that predicts the oscillatory behavior of charged species and allows estimation of both the magnitude of the induced convective velocity and the effective diffusivity as a function of a in infinitely long channels. Numerical results indicate that in addition to the mobility dependence, the steady state behavior of solute species may be strongly affected by oscillating fluid into and out of the active electric field region at the ends of the cell. The effect is most pronounced using time dependent shear flows of the same frequency (cos((omega)t)) flow mode) as the electric field oscillations. Under such conditions, experiments indicate that solute is drawn into the cell from reservoirs at both ends of the cell leading to a large mass build up. As a consequence, any initially induced mass flux will vanish after short times. This effect was not captured by the infinite channel model and hence numerical and experimental results deviated significantly. The revised model including finite cell lengths and reservoir volumes allowed quantitative predictions of the time history of the concentration profile throughout the system. This latter model accurately describes the fluxes observed for both oscillatory flow modes in experiments using single protein species. Based on the results obtained from research funded under NASA grant NAG-8-1080.S, we conclude that binary separations are not possible using purely oscillatory flow modes because of end effects associated with the cos((omega)t) mode. Our research shows, however, that a combination of cos(2(omega)t) and steady flow should lead to efficient separation free of end effects. This possibility is currently under investigation.

Molloy, Richard F.↗

New Retropropulsion Concept with NTAC Power for Mars Entry

Since the initial deployments of probes, orbiters, and rovers on Mars, there have been many ideas and concepts on how to perform an entry, descent, and landing (EDL) process efficiently and safely through the Martian atmosphere to place payloads onto the surface of Mars. Among the missions sent to perform EDL on Mars, only roughly sixty percent of the missions have been successful. The 5 minutes to 20 minutes of communication gap due to long-range telecommunications to Earth, described as seven minutes of terror, add to the complexity of EDL missions to Mars. As the payloads have become larger, the method of EDL has become more complex. To place an automobile-size science rover on the Martian surface requires the use of retrorockets mounted on a Sky Crane during the final subsonic stage of EDL. Larger payloads will require more propellant and more and/or larger retropropulsion engines during the earlier supersonic stage of EDL. The Sky Crane concept may not be scalable for these larger payloads and during supersonic flight; hence, new approaches are sought. A new power technology invented at NASA called Nuclear Thermionic Avalanche Cell (NTAC) may offer an additional solution. Powered by NTAC, the newly invented retropropulsion concept would ingest carbon dioxide gas, heat it up and blast it out as a new feature of the EDL process. NTAC would be reusable as a primary power source for payloads such as excavators, three-dimensional (3D) printers, or mobile equipment for mining, construction, and additive manufacturing tasks. Since NTAC would need to be landed with its host payload or as a standalone power package, assessing its ability to assist in its own EDL seems reasonable. The purpose of this Technical Memorandum (TM) is to examine the performance of NTAC in the context of EDL at Mars for motivating studies for integrating NTAC into future Mars mission architectures.

Mars entry↗

Therma1 Conductivity and Durability of Advanced Thermal Barrier Coatings

Thermal barrier coatings (TBCs) will play a crucial role in advanced gas turbine engines because of their ability to further increase engine operating temperature and reduce cooling, thus helping to achieve engine emission and efficiency goals. Future TBCs must be designed with increased phase stability, lower thermal conductivity, and improved sintering and thermal stress resistance in order to effectively protect engine hot-section components. Advanced low conductivity TBCs are being developed at NASA by incorporating multi-component oxide dopants into zirconia-yttria or hafnia-yttria to promote the formation of thermodynamically stable defect clusters within the coating structures. This presentation will primarily focus on thermal conductivity and durability of the novel defect cluster thermal barrier coatings for turbine airfoil and combustor applications, determined by a unique CO2 laser heat-flux approach. The laser heat-flux testing approach emphasizes the real-time monitoring and assessment of the coating thermal conductivity under simulated engine temperature and thermal gradient conditions. The conductivity increase due to coating sintering (and/or phase change) and the conductivity decrease due to coating delamination have been determined under steady-state, cyclic, uniform or non-uniform heat-flux conditions. The coating radiation flux resistance has been evaluated by varying coating thermal gradients, and also by using a laser-heated radiative-flux source. Advanced multi-component TBC systems have been shown to have significantly reduced thermal conductivity and improved high temperature stability due to the nano-sized, low mobility defect clusters associated with the paired rare earth dopant additions. The effect of oxide defect cluster dopants on coating thermal conductivity, thermal stability and furnace cyclic durability will also be discussed. The current low conductivity TBC systems have demonstrated long-term cyclic durability at very high temperatures which is far beyond the baseline ZrO2-Y2O3 capabilities.

Zhu, Dong-Ming↗

Fully Printed High-Frequency Phased-Array Antenna on Flexible Substrate

To address the issues of flexible electronics needed for surface-to-surface, surface-to-orbit, and back-to-Earth communications necessary for manned exploration of the Moon, Mars, and beyond, a room-temperature printing process has been developed to create active, phased-array antennas (PAAs) on a flexible Kapton substrate. Field effect transistors (FETs) based on carbon nanotubes (CNTs), with many unique physical properties, were successfully proven feasible for phased-array antenna systems. The carrier mobility of an individual CNT is estimated to be at least 100,000 sq cm/V(dot)s. The CNT network in solution has carrier mobility as high as 46,770 sq cm/V(dot)s, and has a large current-density carrying capacity of approx. 1,000 mA/sq cm , which corresponds to a high carrying power of over 2,000 mW/ sq cm. Such high carrier mobility, and large current carrying capacity, allows the achievement of high-speed (>100 GHz), high-power, flexible electronic circuits that can be monolithically integrated on NASA s active phasedarray antennas for various applications, such as pressurized rovers, pressurized habitats, and spacesuits, as well as for locating beacon towers for lunar surface navigation, which will likely be performed at S-band and attached to a mobile astronaut. A fully printed 2-bit 2-element phasedarray antenna (PAA) working at 5.6 GHz, incorporating the CNT FETs as phase shifters, is demonstrated. The PAA is printed out at room temperature on 100-mm thick Kapton substrate. Four CNT FETs are printed together with microstrip time delay lines to function as a 2-bit phase shifter. The FET switch exhibits a switching speed of 0.2 ns, and works well for a 5.6-GHz RF signal. The operating frequency is measured to be 5.6 GHz, versus the state-of-the-art flexible FET operating frequency of 52 MHz. The source-drain current density is measured to be over 1,000 mA/sq cm, while the conventional organic FETs, and single carbon nanotube-based FETs, are typically in the mA to mA/sq cm range. The switching voltage used is 1.8 V, while the state-of-the-art flexible FET has a gate voltage around 50 V. The gate voltage can effectively control the source-drain current with an ON-OFF ratio of over 1,000 obtained at a low Vds bias of 1.8 V. The azimuth steering angles of PAA are measured at 0deg, -14.5deg, -30deg, and 48.6deg. The measured far-field patterns agree well with simulation results. The efficiency of the 2-bit 2-element PAA is measured to be 39 percent, including the loss of transmission line, FET switch, and coupling loss of RF probes. With further optimization, the efficiency is expected to be around 50-60 percent.

Chen, Yihong↗

In-Flight Personalized Medication Management

Current medication selection for treatment of astronauts during spaceflight missions is primarily dictated by the task of efficiently treating the widest possible range of physiological conditions and illnesses with a limited set of medications. Dosage and recommendations on the combination of drugs are based on the assumption of genetically equal drug sensitivity and unchanged metabolism. To our knowledge, there was no pre-flight drug sensitivity testing on a genetic level for any of the previous manned NASA space missions. Although many of the common, binary drug-drug interactions are, most likely, already considered in the ISS Medical kit composition, multi-drug and multi-drug-gene factors are not incorporated in the medication selection or prescription. Furthermore, due to the physiological changes occurring in microgravity environments, astronauts might be susceptible to potential increased drug toxicity as a result of decreased clearance of numerous drugs. In particular, perturbation of CYP450 enzymes which contribute to the hepatic metabolism of the majority of drugs may have significant effects on therapeutic efficacy and increase treatment-related toxicity5. The genes encoding the CYP450 enzymes are highly variable in humans. Inheritable variations of CYP450 hepatic metabolizer enzymes and transport proteins play a crucial role in the inter-individual variability of drug efficiency and risks of adverse drug reactions5. Additionally, there are some reports that document changes in the levels of production of drug-metabolizing enzymes in microgravity. These data can be extrapolated to provide reasonable assumptions of decreased levels of expression for most CYP450 enzymes in human body during prolonged space travel. If the prescribed medication regiment is not fully effective or causes undesirable side effects, the ability of the astronauts to function and maintain peak performance levels during space flight could be seriously compromised. Therefore, technologies capable of predicting and managing medication side effects, interactions, and toxicity of drugs during spaceflight are needed. We propose to develop and customize for NASAs applications available on the market Personalized Prescribing System (PPS) that would provide a comprehensive, non-invasive solution for safer, targeted medication management for every crew member resulting in safer and more effective treatment and, consequently, better performance. PPS will function as both decision support and record-keeping tool for flight surgeons and astronauts in applying the recommended medications for situations arising in flight. The information on individual drug sensitivity will translate into personalized risk assessment for adverse drug reactions and treatment failures for each drug from the medication kit as well as predefined outcome of any combination of them. Dosage recommendations will also be made individually. The mobile app will facilitate ease of use by crew and medical professionals during training and flight missions.

Personalized Medication↗

Machine-learning Solution for Automatic Spacesuit Motion Recognition and Measurement from Conventional Video

Extravehicular Activity (EVA) spacesuits exhibit unique movement patterns due to their design characteristics. Mobility assessments using traditional motion capture systems are cost prohibitive and not feasible for some training conditions (e.g., simulated lunar outdoor terrain). This paper aims to present the ongoing development of machine learning solutions to quantify suit motions from conventional videos without special sensors or hardware. Given the fast growth in deep/machine learning technologies, external expertise was sought from open-source communities. This was expected to accelerate development and provide more cost-effective, time-saving solutions. This work was selected for a NASA Crowdsourcing project through an agency-wide solicitation. Partnerships were formed with the NASA JSC Center of Excellence for Collaborative Innovation and an execution crowdsourcing platform partner to solicit framework developments from external contenders. NASA provided contenders with video clips of spacesuits and simultaneously measured motion capture data during EVA simulation tasks. The contenders used this data to train and develop generalized algorithms to predict motions. At the end of the crowdsourcing event, five solutions were selected from 250 submissions. Each submission was tested and scored using video clips not previously disclosed to the contenders. The scoring metrics measured how well the algorithm detected the suit shape, the 2D suit joint detection accuracy, and 3D joint detection accuracy. The winning solution was able to achieve roughly 85% prediction accuracy (weighted combination of scoring metrics). Overall, the algorithms could efficiently detect various types of spacesuits and motions across different EVA simulation environments such as the Neutral Buoyancy Lab (NBL). However, 3D joint identification is less reliable when parts of the suit were obstructed in the image. After continued improvements and validation, the fully developed system will enable EVA stakeholders to quantify suit kinematic patterns, which can help optimize suit, hardware, and task designs.

Linh Vu↗

Validation of a Mid-Fidelity Approach for Aircraft Stability and Control Characterization

This paper describes an efficient computational approach for aircraft aerodynamic model development intended for use in flight dynamics simulations. A commercial surface-vorticity flow solver called FlightStream is employed to predict performance, stability, and control characteristics for a NASA subscale electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft in its isolated-airframe configuration. A framework is described to rapidly convert OpenVSP geometry into a form compatible with the FlightStream software. FlightStream predictions for the variation of aerodynamic force and moment coefficients with airflow angles and control surface deflection angles are compared to static wind-tunnel data to illustrate the process and assess the accuracy of FlightStream solutions. The results and approach presented in this paper are encouraging for use in rapid aerodynamic modeling and flight dynamics simulation development early in the aircraft design process.

aerodynamic modeling↗

Urban Air Mobility (UAM) Market Study

The Booz Allen Team explored market size and potential barriers to Urban Air Mobility (UAM) by focusing on three potential markets – Airport Shuttle, Air Taxi, and Air Ambulance. We found that the Airport Shuttle and Air Taxi markets are viable, with a significant total available market value in the U.S. of $500 billion, for a fully unconstrained scenario. In this unconstrained best-case scenario, passengers would have the ability to access and fly a UAM at any time, from any location to any destination, without being hindered by constraints such as weather, infrastructure, or traffic volume. Significant legal and regulatory, weather, certification, public perception, and infrastructure constraints exist, which reduce the market potential for these applications to only about 0.5% of the total available market, or $2.5 billion, in the near term. However, we determined that these constraints can be addressed through ongoing intra-governmental partnerships, government and industry collaboration, strong industry commitment, and existing legal and regulatory enablers. We found that the Air Ambulance market is not a viable market if served by electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) vehicles due to technology constraints but may potentially be viable if a hybrid VTOL aircraft are utilized. The barriers and challenges we characterized in this study can be stratified according to their applicability or potential mitigation through technology as well as market maturity (Figure 1). In the near term, high cost of service will be a key economic challenge. We found potential for significant reduction in service cost through increased vehicle and component efficiency, and automation in a more mature market scenario. Weather conditions also pose a challenge to the UAM market, though there is potential for mitigation of some of these impacts through technology such as sensors enabling operations in low visibility. However, even in a mature market with advanced technology, disruptions are still likely to occur due to weather events such as thunderstorms and strong winds. High density operations will likely stress the current Air Traffic Management (ATM) system in the near term, but technology and new initiatives such as the Air Traffic Management -eXploration project (ATM-X) will enable safe and efficient integration of UAM into the National Airspace System (NAS). Current battery technology creates a barrier in the near term, especially for the Air Ambulance market, as battery weight and extensive recharging times would be needed for these operations. Advancements in battery technology, as well as use of hybrid VTOLs, could significantly reduce this barrier in the longer term. As UAM emerges as a viable mode of transportation in the near term, adverse energy and environmental impacts, particularly noise, may impact community acceptance and potentially persist as the market matures into larger-scale operations. For non-technology related challenges, we found that infrastructure constraints will create a significant barrier to UAM in the near term but could be addressed in the longer term through development and expansion of vertiports. Competition from existing modes of transportation such as ride-sharing (e.g., Lyft, Uber) and ground taxi’s pose a key barrier to UAM in the short term, which will likely evolve into competition from other emerging technologies such as autonomous cars and electric trains in the longer term. Weather events will influence other components of the operation such as passenger comfort (e.g., extreme temperatures, turbulence) and infrastructure (e.g., winter weather causing cracks and degradation in vertiports). There is also potential for these impacts to be heightened in the longer term from the increased frequency of adverse weather such as thunderstorms due to changing climatic conditions. We also found that the public has strong concerns about safety as a passenger in a piloted UAM, including “lasing” of pilots, unruly passengers, and sabotage. They would prefer that all passengers pass through a security screening process before boarding a vehicle. They would also prefer to use UAM for longer regional trips, such as flying from Washington, DC to Baltimore, MD or San Diego, CA to Los Angeles, CA. A longer term automated UAM vehicle market will face challenges due to public apprehension about automation and unmanned operations, and a preference to fly with passengers they know in an autonomous (unmanned) operational scenario.

Rohit Goyal↗

Human-Robot Interaction

Human-robot interaction (HRI) is a discipline investigating the factors affecting the interactions between humans and robots. It is important to evaluate how the design of interfaces affect the human's ability to perform tasks effectively and efficiently when working with a robot. By understanding the effects of interface design on human performance, workload, and situation awareness, interfaces can be developed to appropriately support the human in performing tasks with minimal errors and with appropriate interaction time and effort. Thus, the results of research on human-robot interfaces have direct implications for the design of robotic systems. For efficient and effective remote navigation of a rover, a human operator needs to be aware of the robot's environment. However, during teleoperation, operators may get information about the environment only through a robot's front-mounted camera causing a keyhole effect. The keyhole effect reduces situation awareness which may manifest in navigation issues such as higher number of collisions, missing critical aspects of the environment, or reduced speed. One way to compensate for the keyhole effect and the ambiguities operators experience when they teleoperate a robot is adding multiple cameras and including the robot chassis in the camera view. Augmented reality, such as overlays, can also enhance the way a person sees objects in the environment or in camera views by making them more visible. Scenes can be augmented with integrated telemetry, procedures, or map information. Furthermore, the addition of an exocentric (i.e., third-person) field of view from a camera placed in the robot's environment may provide operators with the additional information needed to gain spatial awareness of the robot. Two research studies investigated possible mitigation approaches to address the keyhole effect: 1) combining the inclusion of the robot chassis in the camera view with augmented reality overlays, and 2) modifying the camera frame of reference. The first study investigated the effects of inclusion and exclusion of the robot chassis along with superimposing a simple arrow overlay onto the video feed of operator task performance during teleoperation of a mobile robot in a driving task. In this study, the front half of the robot chassis was made visible through the use of three cameras, two side-facing and one forward-facing. The purpose of the second study was to compare operator performance when teleoperating a robot from an egocentric-only and combined (egocentric plus exocentric camera) view. Camera view parameters that are found to be beneficial in these laboratory experiments can be implemented on NASA rovers and tested in a real-world driving and navigation scenario on-site at the Johnson Space Center.

Sandor, Aniko↗

How Mars lost its atmosphere

There is a widespread suspicion that Mars thin atmosphere is in some way attributable to the planet's size. Another possibility is that the atmosphere was never degassed or outgassed in the first place. I prefer escape. Hydrodynamic escape (vigorous thermal escape) and impact erosion (expulsion of atmosphere by impacts) are two processes that should have been operative early. Although in principle hydrodynamic escape could have shrunk Mars atmosphere a hundredfold while leaving the composition of the remnant atmosphere nearly unaltered, very high escape fluxes are required. The implicated escape mechanism must have been efficient, nearly non-fractionating, and vastly more potent for Mars than for Earth or Venus. Impact erosion is an appealing candidate. Noble gases are the obvious first test. Noble gases are the most volatile elements and so are the most likely to have been affected by impact erosion and the easiest to address quantitatively. Xenon in particular imposes three constraints on how Mars lost its atmosphere: (1) the very low abundance of nonradiogenic Xe abundance of nonradiogenic Xe compared to Earth, Venus, and likely meteoritic sources; (2) its nonradiogenic isotopes distinct from likely meteoritic sources; and (3) the relatively high absolute abundance of radiogenic daughter of the extinct radionuclide I-129 (half-life 17 Myr). In impact erosion, the first two become constraints on the composition, mass distribution, and orbital elements of the impactors. The third requires that Mars lost its nonradiogenic Xe early, probably before it was 100 Myr old. Impact erosion can explain Mars by any of three stories. (1) Mars in unlikely. In a sort of planetary brinkmanship, impact erosion almost removed the entire atmosphere but was arrested just in time. (2) Martian noble gases are cometary and cometary Xe is as isotopically mass fractionated as Martian and terrestrial Xe. This is most easily accomplished if a relatively thick geochemically controlled CO2 atmosphere protected trace atmophiles against escape. (3) Mars was indeed stripped of its early atmosphere but a small remnant was safely stored in the regolith, later released as a byproduct of water mobilization.

Zahnle, Kevin↗