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NASA NTRS2007

Progress Toward Improving Jet Noise Predictions in Hot Jets

An acoustic analogy methodology for improving noise predictions in hot round jets is presented. Past approaches have often neglected the impact of temperature fluctuations on the predicted sound spectral density, which could be significant for heated jets, and this has yielded noticeable acoustic under-predictions in such cases. The governing acoustic equations adopted here are a set of linearized, inhomogeneous Euler equations. These equations are combined into a single third order linear wave operator when the base flow is considered as a locally parallel mean flow. The remaining second-order fluctuations are regarded as the equivalent sources of sound and are modeled. It is shown that the hot jet effect may be introduced primarily through a fluctuating velocity/enthalpy term. Modeling this additional source requires specialized inputs from a RANS-based flowfield simulation. The information is supplied using an extension to a baseline two equation turbulence model that predicts total enthalpy variance in addition to the standard parameters. Preliminary application of this model to a series of unheated and heated subsonic jets shows significant improvement in the acoustic predictions at the 90 degree observer angle.

Khavaran, Abbas↗
NASA NTRS2007

Climate-Induced Boreal Forest Change: Predictions versus Current Observations

For about three decades, there have been many predictions of the potential ecological response in boreal regions to the currently warmer conditions. In essence, a widespread, naturally occurring experiment has been conducted over time. In this paper, we describe previously modeled predictions of ecological change in boreal Alaska, Canada and Russia, and then we investigate potential evidence of current climate-induced change. For instance, ecological models have suggested that warming will induce the northern and upslope migration of the treeline and an alteration in the current mosaic structure of boreal forests. We present evidence of the migration of keystone ecosystems in the upland and lowland treeline of mountainous regions across southern Siberia. Ecological models have also predicted a moisture-stress-related dieback in white spruce trees in Alaska, and current investigations show that as temperatures increase, white spruce tree growth is declining. Additionally, it was suggested that increases in infestation and wildfire disturbance would be catalysts that precipitate the alteration of the current mosaic forest composition. In Siberia, five of the last seven years have resulted in extreme fire seasons, and extreme fire years have also been more frequent in both Alaska and Canada. In addition, Alaska has experienced extreme and geographically expansive multi-year outbreaks of the spruce beetle, which had been previously limited by the cold, moist environment. We suggest that there is substantial evidence throughout the circumboreal region to conclude that the biosphere within the boreal terrestrial environment has already responded to the transient effects of climate change. Additionally, temperature increases and warming-induced change are progressing faster than had been predicted in some regions, suggesting a potential non-linear rapid response to changes in climate, as opposed to the predicted slow linear response to climate change.

Soja, Amber J.↗
NASA NTRS2008

A Process for Assessing NASA's Capability in Aircraft Noise Prediction Technology

An acoustic assessment is being conducted by NASA that has been designed to assess the current state of the art in NASA s capability to predict aircraft related noise and to establish baselines for gauging future progress in the field. The process for determining NASA s current capabilities includes quantifying the differences between noise predictions and measurements of noise from experimental tests. The computed noise predictions are being obtained from semi-empirical, analytical, statistical, and numerical codes. In addition, errors and uncertainties are being identified and quantified both in the predictions and in the measured data to further enhance the credibility of the assessment. The content of this paper contains preliminary results, since the assessment project has not been fully completed, based on the contributions of many researchers and shows a select sample of the types of results obtained regarding the prediction of aircraft noise at both the system and component levels. The system level results are for engines and aircraft. The component level results are for fan broadband noise, for jet noise from a variety of nozzles, and for airframe noise from flaps and landing gear parts. There are also sample results for sound attenuation in lined ducts with flow and the behavior of acoustic lining in ducts.

Dahl, Milo D.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Modeling and Prediction of Fan Noise

Fan noise is a significant contributor to the total noise signature of a modern high bypass ratio aircraft engine and with the advent of ultra high bypass ratio engines like the geared turbofan, it is likely to remain so in the future. As such, accurate modeling and prediction of the basic characteristics of fan noise are necessary ingredients in designing quieter aircraft engines in order to ensure compliance with ever more stringent aviation noise regulations. In this paper, results from a comprehensive study aimed at establishing the utility of current tools for modeling and predicting fan noise will be summarized. It should be emphasized that these tools exemplify present state of the practice and embody what is currently used at NASA and Industry for predicting fan noise. The ability of these tools to model and predict fan noise is assessed against a set of benchmark fan noise databases obtained for a range of representative fan cycles and operating conditions. Detailed comparisons between the predicted and measured narrowband spectral and directivity characteristics of fan nose will be presented in the full paper. General conclusions regarding the utility of current tools and recommendations for future improvements will also be given.

Envia, Ed↗
NASA NTRS2008

A Grid Sourcing and Adaptation Study Using Unstructured Grids for Supersonic Boom Prediction

NASA created the Supersonics Project as part of the NASA Fundamental Aeronautics Program to advance technology that will make a supersonic flight over land viable. Computational flow solvers have lacked the ability to accurately predict sonic boom from the near to far field. The focus of this investigation was to establish gridding and adaptation techniques to predict near-to-mid-field (<10 body lengths below the aircraft) boom signatures at supersonic speeds using the USM3D unstructured grid flow solver. The study began by examining sources along the body the aircraft, far field sourcing and far field boundaries. The study then examined several techniques for grid adaptation. During the course of the study, volume sourcing was introduced as a new way to source grids using the grid generation code VGRID. Two different methods of using the volume sources were examined. The first method, based on manual insertion of the numerous volume sources, made great improvements in the prediction capability of USM3D for boom signatures. The second method (SSGRID), which uses an a priori adaptation approach to stretch and shear the original unstructured grid to align the grid and pressure waves, showed similar results with a more automated approach. Due to SSGRID s results and ease of use, the rest of the study focused on developing a best practice using SSGRID. The best practice created by this study for boom predictions using the CFD code USM3D involved: 1) creating a small cylindrical outer boundary either 1 or 2 body lengths in diameter (depending on how far below the aircraft the boom prediction is required), 2) using a single volume source under the aircraft, and 3) using SSGRID to stretch and shear the grid to the desired length.

Carter, Melissa B.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Predicting the Earth encounters of (99942) Apophis

Arecibo delay-Doppler measurements of (99942) Apophis in 2005 and 2006 resulted in a five standard-deviation trajectory correction to the optically predicted close approach distance to Earth in 2029. The radar measurements reduced the volume of the statistical uncertainty region entering the encounter to 7.3% of the pre-radar solution, but increased the trajectory uncertainty growth rate across the encounter by 800% due to the closer predicted approach to the Earth. A small estimated Earth impact probability remained for 2036. With standard-deviation plane-of-sky position uncertainties for 2007-2010 already less than 0.2 arcsec, the best near-term ground-based optical astrometry can only weakly affect the trajectory estimate. While the potential for impact in 2036 will likely be excluded in 2013 (if not 2011) using ground-based optical measurements, approximations within the Standard Dynamical Model (SDM) used to estimate and predict the trajectory from the current era are sufficient to obscure the difference between a predicted impact and a miss in 2036 by altering the dynamics leading into the 2029 encounter. Normal impact probability assessments based on the SDM become problematic without knowledge of the object's physical properties; impact could be excluded while the actual dynamics still permit it. Calibrated position uncertainty intervals are developed to compensate for this by characterizing the minimum and maximum effect of physical parameters on the trajectory. Uncertainty in accelerations related to solar radiation can cause between 82 and 4720 Earth-radii of trajectory change relative to the SDM by 2036. If an actionable hazard exists, alteration by 2-10% of Apophis' total absorption of solar radiation in 2018 could be sufficient to produce a six standard-deviation trajectory change by 2036 given physical characterization; even a 0.5% change could produce a trajectory shift of one Earth-radius by 2036 for all possible spin-poles and likely masses. Planetary ephemeris uncertainties are the next greatest source of systematic error, causing up to 23 Earth-radii of uncertainty. The SDM Earth point-mass assumption introduces an additional 2.9 Earth-radii of prediction error by 2036. Unmodeled asteroid perturbations produce as much as 2.3 Earth-radii of error. We find no future small-body encounters likely to yield an Apophis mass determination prior to 2029. However, asteroid (144898) 2004 VD17, itself having a statistical Earth impact in 2102, will probably encounter Apophis at 6.7 lunar distances in 2034, their uncertainty regions coming as close as 1.6 lunar distances near the center of both SDM probability distributions.

Orbit determination↗
NASA NTRS2008

If We Can't Predict Solar Cycle 24, What About Solar Cycle 34?

Predictions of solar activity in Solar Cycle 24 range from 50% larger than SC 23 to the onset of a Grand Minimum. Because low levels of solar activity are associated with global cooling in paleoclimate and isotopic records, anticipating these extremes is required in any longterm extrapolation of climate variability. Climate models often look forward 100 or more years, which would mean 10 solar cycles into the future. Predictions of solar activity are derived from a number of methods, most of which, such as climatology and physics-based models, will be familiar to atmospheric scientists. More than 50 predictions of the maximum amplitude of SC 24 published before solar minimum will be discussed. Descriptions of several methods that result in the extreme predictions and some anticipation of even longer term predictions will be presented.

Pesnell. William Dean↗
NASA NTRS2008

Study of the Correlation between the Performances of Lunar Vehicle Wheels Predicted by the Nepean Wheeled Vehicle Performance Model and Test Data

This paper describes the results of a study of the correlation between the performances of wheels for lunar vehicles predicted using the Nepean wheeled vehicle performance model (NWVPM), developed under the auspices of Vehicle Systems Development Corporation, Ottawa, Canada, and the corresponding test data presented in Performance evaluation of wheels for lunar vehicles , Technical Report M-70-2, prepared for George C. Marshall Space Flight Center, National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), USA, by the US Army Engineer Waterways Experiment Station (WES). The NWVPM was originally developed for design and performance evaluation of terrestrial off-road wheeled vehicles. The purpose of this study is to assess the potential of the NWVPM for evaluating wheel candidates for the new generation of extra-terrestrial vehicles. Two versions of a wire-mesh wheel and a hoop-spring wheel, which were considered as candidates for lunar roving vehicles for the NASA Apollo program in the late 1960s, together with a pneumatic wheel were examined in this study. The tractive performances of these wheels and of a 464 test vehicle with the pneumatic wheels on air-dry sand were predicted using the NWVPM and compared with the corresponding test data obtained under Earth s gravity and previously documented in the above-named report. While test data on wheel or vehicle performances obtained under Earth s gravity may not necessarily be representative of those on extra-terrestrial bodies, because of the differences in gravity and in environmental conditions, such as atmospheric pressure, it is still a valid approach to use test data obtained under Earth s gravity to evaluate the predictive capability of the NWVPM and its potential applications to predicting wheel or wheeled rover performances on extra-terrestrial bodies. Results of this study show that, using the ratio (P20/W) of the drawbar pull to normal load at 20 per cent slip as a performance indicator, there is a reasonable correlation between the predictions and experimental data. This indicates that the NWVPM has the potential as an engineering tool for evaluating wheel candidates for a future generation of extra-terrestrial vehicles, provided that appropriate input data are available.

Wong, J. Y.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Predicting the Size of Sunspot Cycle 24 on the Basis of Single- and Bi-Variate Geomagnetic Precursor Methods

Examined are single- and bi-variate geomagnetic precursors for predicting the maximum amplitude (RM) of a sunspot cycle several years in advance. The best single-variate fit is one based on the average of the ap index 36 mo prior to cycle minimum occurrence (E(Rm)), having a coefficient of correlation (r) equal to 0.97 and a standard error of estimate (se) equal to 9.3. Presuming cycle 24 not to be a statistical outlier and its minimum in March 2008, the fit suggests cycle 24 s RM to be about 69 +/- 20 (the 90% prediction interval). The weighted mean prediction of 11 statistically important single-variate fits is 116 +/- 34. The best bi-variate fit is one based on the maximum and minimum values of the 12-mma of the ap index; i.e., APM# and APm*, where # means the value post-E(RM) for the preceding cycle and * means the value in the vicinity of cycle minimum, having r = 0.98 and se = 8.2. It predicts cycle 24 s RM to be about 92 +/- 27. The weighted mean prediction of 22 statistically important bi-variate fits is 112 32. Thus, cycle 24's RM is expected to lie somewhere within the range of about 82 to 144. Also examined are the late-cycle 23 behaviors of geomagnetic indices and solar wind velocity in comparison to the mean behaviors of cycles 2023 and the geomagnetic indices of cycle 14 (RM = 64.2), the weakest sunspot cycle of the modern era.

Wilson, Robert M.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Atomic Oxygen Erosion Yield Predictive Tool for Spacecraft Polymers in Low Earth Orbit

A predictive tool was developed to estimate the low Earth orbit (LEO) atomic oxygen erosion yield of polymers based on the results of the Polymer Erosion and Contamination Experiment (PEACE) Polymers experiment flown as part of the Materials International Space Station Experiment 2 (MISSE 2). The MISSE 2 PEACE experiment accurately measured the erosion yield of a wide variety of polymers and pyrolytic graphite. The 40 different materials tested were selected specifically to represent a variety of polymers used in space as well as a wide variety of polymer chemical structures. The resulting erosion yield data was used to develop a predictive tool which utilizes chemical structure and physical properties of polymers that can be measured in ground laboratory testing to predict the in-space atomic oxygen erosion yield of a polymer. The properties include chemical structure, bonding information, density and ash content. The resulting predictive tool has a correlation coefficient of 0.914 when compared with actual MISSE 2 space data for 38 polymers and pyrolytic graphite. The intent of the predictive tool is to be able to make estimates of atomic oxygen erosion yields for new polymers without requiring expensive and time consumptive in-space testing.

Bank, Bruce A.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Fan Noise Prediction with Applications to Aircraft System Noise Assessment

This paper describes an assessment of current fan noise prediction tools by comparing measured and predicted sideline acoustic levels from a benchmark fan noise wind tunnel test. Specifically, an empirical method and newly developed coupled computational approach are utilized to predict aft fan noise for a benchmark test configuration. Comparisons with sideline noise measurements are performed to assess the relative merits of the two approaches. The study identifies issues entailed in coupling the source and propagation codes, as well as provides insight into the capabilities of the tools in predicting the fan noise source and subsequent propagation and radiation. In contrast to the empirical method, the new coupled computational approach provides the ability to investigate acoustic near-field effects. The potential benefits/costs of these new methods are also compared with the existing capabilities in a current aircraft noise system prediction tool. The knowledge gained in this work provides a basis for improved fan source specification in overall aircraft system noise studies.

Nark, Douglas M.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Atomic Oxygen Erosion Yield Prediction for Spacecraft Polymers in Low Earth Orbit

The ability to predict the atomic oxygen erosion yield of polymers based on their chemistry and physical properties has been only partially successful because of a lack of reliable low Earth orbit (LEO) erosion yield data. Unfortunately, many of the early experiments did not utilize dehydrated mass loss measurements for erosion yield determination, and the resulting mass loss due to atomic oxygen exposure may have been compromised because samples were often not in consistent states of dehydration during the pre-flight and post-flight mass measurements. This is a particular problem for short duration mission exposures or low erosion yield materials. However, as a result of the retrieval of the Polymer Erosion and Contamination Experiment (PEACE) flown as part of the Materials International Space Station Experiment 2 (MISSE 2), the erosion yields of 38 polymers and pyrolytic graphite were accurately measured. The experiment was exposed to the LEO environment for 3.95 years from August 16, 2001 to July 30, 2005 and was successfully retrieved during a space walk on July 30, 2005 during Discovery s STS-114 Return to Flight mission. The 40 different materials tested (including Kapton H fluence witness samples) were selected specifically to represent a variety of polymers used in space as well as a wide variety of polymer chemical structures. The MISSE 2 PEACE Polymers experiment used carefully dehydrated mass measurements, as well as accurate density measurements to obtain accurate erosion yield data for high-fluence (8.43 1021 atoms/sq cm). The resulting data was used to develop an erosion yield predictive tool with a correlation coefficient of 0.895 and uncertainty of +/-6.3 10(exp -25)cu cm/atom. The predictive tool utilizes the chemical structures and physical properties of polymers to predict in-space atomic oxygen erosion yields. A predictive tool concept (September 2009 version) is presented which represents an improvement over an earlier (December 2008) version.

Banks, Bruce A.↗
NASA NTRS2007

The Impact on EOP Predictions of AAM Forecasts from the ECMWF and NCEP

Predictions of UT1 are improved when dynamical model-based forecasts of the axial component of atmospheric angular momentum (AAM) are used as proxy length-of-day (LOD) forecasts (Freedman et al. 1994; Johnson et al. 2005). For example, the accuracy of JPL's predictions of UT1 are improved by nearly a factor of 2 when AAM forecast data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) are used. Given the importance of AAM forecasts on the accuracy of UT1 predictions, other sources of AAM forecasts should be sought. Here, the angular momentum of the forecasted wind fields from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) are computed and used to predict UT1. The results are compared to those obtained using NCEP forecasts.

atmospheric angular momentum (AAM)↗
NASA NTRS2009

Contribution of Soil Moisture Information to Streamflow Prediction in the Snowmelt Season: A Continental-Scale Analysis

In areas dominated by winter snowcover, the prediction of streamflow during the snowmelt season may benefit from three pieces of information: (i) the accurate prediction of weather variability (precipitation, etc.) leading up to and during the snowmelt season, (ii) estimates of the amount of snow present during the winter season, and (iii) estimates of the amount of soil moisture underlying the snowpack during the winter season. The importance of accurate meteorological predictions and wintertime snow estimates is obvious. The contribution of soil moisture to streamflow prediction is more subtle yet potentially very important. If the soil is dry below the snowpack, a significant fraction of the snowmelt may be lost to streamflow and potential reservoir storage, since it may infiltrate the soil instead for later evaporation. Such evaporative losses are presumably smaller if the soil below the snowpack is wet. In this paper, we use a state-of-the-art land surface model to quantify the contribution of wintertime snow and soil moisture information -- both together and separately -- to skill in forecasting springtime streamflow. We find that soil moisture information indeed contributes significantly to streamflow prediction skill.

Reichle, Rolf↗
NASA NTRS2009

The Updated Solar Activity Prediction during the MAVEN Mission, but Should We Believe It?

Mars atmospheric processes are very dependent not only on the absolute level of the solar irradiance but also the changes in solar irradiance. Correlated with many of these irradiance changes, especially during solar flares, are large particle events called coronal mass ejections that themselves significantly drive processes in the Martian atmosphere. The NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center has issued a consensus solar cycle activity prediction for the upcoming solar cycle 24 maximum, and this maximum period of solar activity will be during the prime MAVEN science mission. This 'consensus' prediction calls for lower activity than the previous solar cycle maximum that occurred during the years 2001-2002, but looking at the wide spread of peer-reviewed predictions there is little faith that can be taken in any one prediction. This drives the importance of real-time measurements from the LPW/EUV diodes and the measurement and modeling results that will be improved upon using results from the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO).

Chamberlin, Philip↗
NASA NTRS2010

The Prediction of Broadband Shock-Associated Noise from Dualstream and Rectangular Jets Using RANS CFD

Supersonic jets operating off-design produce broadband shock-associated noise. Broadband shock-associated noise is characterized by multiple broadband peaks in the far-field and is often the dominant source of noise towards the sideline and upstream direction relative to the jet axis. It is due to large scale coherent turbulence structures in the jet shear layers interacting with the shock cell structure. A broadband shock-associated noise model recently developed by the authors predicts this noise component from solutions to the Reynolds averaged Navier-Stokes equations using a two-equation turbulence model. The broadband shock-associated noise model is applied to dualstream and rectangular nozzles operating supersonically, heated, and off-design. The dualstream jet broadband shock-associated noise predictions are conducted for cases when the core jet is supersonic and the fan jet is subsonic, the core jet is subsonic and the fan jet is supersonic, and when both jet streams operate supersonically. Rectangular jet predictions are shown for a convergent-divergent nozzle operating both over- and under-expanded for cold and heated conditions. The original model implementation has been heavily modified to make accurate predictions for the dualstream jets. It is also argued that for over-expanded jets the oblique shock wave attached to the nozzle lip contributes little to broadband shock-associated noise. All predictions are compared with experiments.

Miller, Steven A.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Sources of Uncertainty in Predicting Land Surface Fluxes Using Diverse Data and Models

In the domain of predicting land surface fluxes, models are used to bring data from large observation networks and satellite remote sensing together to make predictions about present and future states of the Earth. Characterizing the uncertainty about such predictions is a complex process and one that is not yet fully understood. Uncertainty exists about initialization, measurement and interpolation of input variables; model parameters; model structure; and mixed spatial and temporal supports. Multiple models or structures often exist to describe the same processes. Uncertainty about structure is currently addressed by running an ensemble of different models and examining the distribution of model outputs. To illustrate structural uncertainty, a multi-model ensemble experiment we have been conducting using the Terrestrial Observation and Prediction System (TOPS) will be discussed. TOPS uses public versions of process-based ecosystem models that use satellite-derived inputs along with surface climate data and land surface characterization to produce predictions of ecosystem fluxes including gross and net primary production and net ecosystem exchange. Using the TOPS framework, we have explored the uncertainty arising from the application of models with different assumptions, structures, parameters, and variable definitions. With a small number of models, this only begins to capture the range of possible spatial fields of ecosystem fluxes. Few attempts have been made to systematically address the components of uncertainty in such a framework. We discuss the characterization of uncertainty for this approach including both quantifiable and poorly known aspects.

Dungan, Jennifer L.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Analysis of Flight Management System Predictions of Idle-Thrust Descents

To enable arriving aircraft to fly optimized descents computed by the flight management system (FMS) in congested airspace, ground automation must accurately predict descent trajectories. To support development of the predictor and its uncertainty models, descents from cruise to the meter fix were executed using vertical navigation in a B737-700 simulator and a B777-200 simulator, both with commercial FMSs. For both aircraft types, the FMS computed the intended descent path for a specified speed profile assuming idle thrust after top of descent (TOD), and then it controlled the avionics without human intervention. The test matrix varied aircraft weight, descent speed, and wind conditions. The first analysis in this paper determined the effect of the test matrix parameters on the FMS computation of TOD location, and it compared the results to those for the current ground predictor in the Efficient Descent Advisor (EDA). The second analysis was similar but considered the time to fly a specified distance to the meter fix. The effects of the test matrix variables together with the accuracy requirements for the predictor will determine the allowable error for the predictor inputs. For the B737, the EDA prediction of meter fix crossing time agreed well with the FMS; but its prediction of TOD location probably was not sufficiently accurate to enable idle-thrust descents in congested airspace, even though the FMS and EDA gave similar shapes for TOD location as a function of the test matrix variables. For the B777, the FMS and EDA gave different shapes for the TOD location function, and the EDA prediction of the TOD location is not accurate enough to fully enable the concept. Furthermore, the differences between the FMS and EDA predictions of meter fix crossing time for the B777 indicated that at least one of them was not sufficiently accurate.

Stell, Laurel↗