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At least 631 records · Page 35

Seasonal variability of wake impacts on US mid-Atlantic offshore wind plant power production

Abstract. The mid-Atlantic will experience rapid wind plant development due to its promising wind resource located near large population centers. Wind turbines and wind plants create wakes, or regions of reduced wind speed, that may negatively affect downwind turbines and plants. We evaluate wake variability and annual energy production with the first yearlong modeling assessment using the Weather Research and Forecasting model, deploying 12 MW turbines across the domain at a density of 3.14 MW km−2, matching the planned density of 3 MW km−2. Using a series of simulations with no wind plants, one wind plant, and complete build-out of lease areas, we calculate wake effects and distinguish the effect of wakes generated internally within one plant from those generated externally between plants. We also provide a first step towards uncertainty quantification by testing the amount of added turbulence kinetic energy (TKE) by 0 % and 100 %. We provide a sensitivity analysis by additionally comparing 25 % and 50 % for a short case study period. The strongest wakes, propagating 55 km, occur in summertime stable stratification, just when New England's grid demand peaks in summer. The seasonal variability of wakes in this offshore region is much stronger than the diurnal variability of wakes. Overall, yearlong simulated wake impacts reduce power output by a range between 38.2 % and 34.1 % (for 0 %–100 % added TKE). Internal wakes cause greater yearlong power losses, from 29.2 % to 25.7 %, compared to external wakes, from 14.7 % to 13.4 %. The overall impact is different from the linear sum of internal wakes and external wakes due to non-linear processes. Additional simulations quantify wake uncertainty by modifying the added amount of turbulent kinetic energy from wind turbines, introducing power output variability of 3.8 %. Finally, we compare annual energy production to New England grid demand and find that the lease areas can supply 58.8 % to 61.2 % of annual load. We note that the results of this assessment are not intended to make nor are they suitable to make commercial judgments about specific wind projects.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

A Simple Non-Planckian Radiation Source for ICF and HED Simulations (Rev.1)

The purpose of this paper is to present a simple way to build frequency dependent spectral (FDS) sources for use in inertial confinement fusion and high energy density physics simulations. This process takes an arbitrary temperature history and converts it into a radiation source with both Planckian and non-Planckian components, the latter of which is to describe high energy photon energies emitted by gold hohlraums. This method is then used to generate spectral energy sources for use in inertial confinement fusion (ICF) and high energy density (HED) simulations which are compared to integrated laser simulations along with experimental measurements.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗

Characterization of PyC/SiC interfaces with FIB-SEM tomography

Tristructural-isotropic (TRISO) fuel is being considered for multiple reactor designs due to its exceptional performance. This work studies pyrocarbon (PyC) and silicon carbide (SiC) substrates that are near-representative of the inner pyrocarbon (IPyC) and SiC in TRISO fuel. Focused ion beam (FIB)-scanning electron microscopy (SEM) tomography was used to understand the influence of different processing routes on the PyC/SiC interface structure. Additionally, this work outlines a methodology for characterizing the IPyC/SiC interface when considering fission product accommodation and retention in TRISO fuel design. The high-fidelity images collected with FIB-SEM tomography can be used to achieve a more in-depth interpretation of microstructural parameters and pore-shape analysis that can inform simulations and processing.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Generative adversarial networks for scintillation signal simulation in EXO-200

Generative Adversarial Networks trained on samples of simulated or actual events have been proposed as a way of generating large simulated datasets at a reduced computational cost. In this work, a novel approach to perform the simulation of photodetector signals from the time projection chamber of the EXO-200 experiment is demonstrated. The method is based on a Wasserstein Generative Adversarial Network — a deep learning technique allowing for implicit non-parametric estimation of the population distribution for a given set of objects. Our network is trained on real calibration data using raw scintillation waveforms as input. We find that it is able to produce high-quality simulated waveforms an order of magnitude faster than the traditional simulation approach and, importantly, generalize from the training sample and discern salient high-level features of the data. In particular, the network correctly deduces position dependency of scintillation light response in the detector and correctly recognizes dead photodetector channels. Furthermore, the network output is then integrated into the EXO-200 analysis framework to show that the standard EXO-200 reconstruction routine processes the simulated waveforms to produce energy distributions comparable to that of real waveforms. Finally, the remaining discrepancies and potential ways to improve the approach further are highlighted.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Characterizing How Meteorological Forcing Selection and Parameter Uncertainty Influence Community Land Model Version 5 Hydrological Applications in the United States

Despite the increasing use of large-scale Land Surface Models (LSMs) in predicting hydrological responses in extreme conditions, there's a critical gap in understanding the uncertainties in these predictions. This study addresses this gap through a detailed diagnostic evaluation of the uncertainties arising from meteorological forcing selection and model parametrization in hydrological simulations of the Community Land Model version 5 (CLM5). CLM5 is configured at a spatial scale of about 12-km to simulate runoff processes for 464 headwater watersheds, selected from the Catchment Attributes for Large-Sample Studies (CAMELS) dataset to be representative of physiographic and climatic gradients across the conterminous United States. For each watershed, CLM5 is driven by five commonly used gridded forcing datasets in combination with a large ensemble (> 1200) of key CLM5 hydrologic parameters. Our results suggest that uncertainty in CLM5 runoff simulations resulting from both forcing and parametric sources is markedly higher in arid regions, e.g., Great Plains and Midwest regions. Uncertainty in low flow is dominated by parametric uncertainty, while the selection of meteorological forcing contributes more dominantly to high flow and seasonal flows during fall and spring. Our analysis also demonstrates that the selection of forcing datasets and the metrics used to calibrate CLM5 significantly impact the model’s predictive accuracy in extreme event severity for both floods and droughts. Overall, the results from this study highlight the need to understand and account for forcing and parametric uncertainties in CLM5 simulations, particularly for hazard and risk assessments addressing hydrologic extremes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Enhanced Monte Carlo Simulation of the Voxel Phantom Lattice Submersed in a Contaminated Air Environment

External dose coefficient calculations reported for submersions in semi-infinite clouds, as in the Environmental Protection Agency: Federal Guidance Report 12, assume a person standing on the ground submerged in a radioactive cloud. In the scope of the work presented here, Oak Ridge National Laboratory's Center for Radiation Protection Knowledge has computed dose coefficients for monoenergetic photons, electrons, and positrons for worker exposures in three rooms of finite sizes representing an office, laboratory, and warehouse. In the process of simulating these exposures, International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) Publication 110 reference adult male and female voxel phantom lattices were placed in the rooms filled with contaminated air. It was apparent that additional simulations were need to treat the non-tissue voxels surrounding the phantoms as containing the contaminated air. Dose coefficients for three room sizes representing an office, laboratory, and warehouse were computed. The coefficients for electrons exhibit little dependence on room size for most energies. However, for organs within the range of electron transport, the dose from source activity within the non-tissue voxels of the lattice surrounding the phantom becomes increasingly important. The photon dose coefficients vary based on room size because of longer mean free paths. It is important to include the air surrounding the voxel phantom within the voxel lattice in the calculations, when simulating a voxel phantom submersed in air for source particle energies below 200-300 keV, otherwise, the organ dose coefficient would be underestimated. Organ and effective dose coefficients for each gender, energy, and room size will be tabulated on the Oak Ridge National Laboratory - Center for Radiation Protection Knowledge website: http://ornl.gov/crpk.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

Experimentally validated multiphysics modeling of fracture induced by thermal shocks in sintered UO 2 pellets

Uranium Dioxide (UO 2 ) fuel powers almost all commercial Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) worldwide, generating carbon-free energy and contributing to the fight against climate change. UO 2 fuel incurs damage and fractures due to large thermal gradients that develop across the fuel pellet during normal and transient operating conditions. A comprehensive understanding of the underlying mechanisms by which these processes take place is still lacking. A combined experimental and computational approach is utilized here to quantify the behavior of UO 2 fuel fracture induced by thermal shock. Here, this work introduces both (1) an experimental study to understand the fuel fracturing behavior of sintered UO 2 pellets when exposed to thermal shock, and (2) a Multiphysics phase-field fracture model capable of simulating this process. Parametric studies were conducted to evaluate the effects of uncertainties in fracture properties on the fracture behavior of UO 2 due to thermal shocking. A set of energy release rate (or equivalently fracture toughness) and contract area (the part of the fuel pellet in direct contact with the cold bath) were able to capture the overall fracture trends of the corresponding experimental data. Our combined approach presents a new method for accounting for the effects of microstructure and sample size on the energy release rate/fracture toughness. The experimental data were collected from multiple experiments that exposed UO 2 pellets to high-temperature conditions (589–676 °C) followed by a quench in sub-zero water. This work demonstrates that joint experimental and computational efforts are able to advance the understanding of thermal fracture in the primary fuel source for existing and future NPPs.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Determining the N -Representability of a Reduced Density Matrix via Unitary Evolution and Stochastic Sampling

The N-representability problem consists in determining whether, for a given p-body matrix, there exists at least one N-body density matrix from which the p-body matrix can be obtained by contraction, that is, if the given matrix is a p-body reduced density matrix (p-RDM). The knowledge of all necessary and sufficient conditions for a p-body matrix to be N-representable allows the constrained minimization of a many-body Hamiltonian expectation value with respect to the p-body density matrix and, thus, the determination of its exact ground state. However, the number of constraints that complete the N-representability conditions grows exponentially with system size, and hence, the procedure quickly becomes intractable for practical applications. This work introduces a hybrid quantum-stochastic algorithm to effectively replace the N-representability conditions. The algorithm consists of applying to an initial N-body density matrix a sequence of unitary evolution operators constructed from a stochastic process that successively approaches the reduced state of the density matrix on a p-body subsystem, represented by a p-RDM, to a target p-body matrix, potentially a p-RDM. The generators of the evolution operators follow the well-known adaptive derivative-assembled pseudo-Trotter method (ADAPT), while the stochastic component is implemented by using a simulated annealing process. The resulting algorithm is independent of any underlying Hamiltonian, and it can be used to decide whether a given p-body matrix is N-representable, establishing a criterion to determine its quality and correcting it. We apply the proposed hybrid ADAPT algorithm to alleged reduced density matrices from a quantum chemistry electronic Hamiltonian, from the reduced Bardeen–Cooper–Schrieffer model with constant pairing, and from the Heisenberg XXZ spin model. In all cases, the proposed method behaves as expected for 1-RDMs and 2-RDMs, evolving the initial matrices toward different targets.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Emergent facilitation and glassy dynamics in supercooled liquids

In supercooled liquids, dynamical facilitation refers to a phenomenon where microscopic motion begets further motion nearby, resulting in spatially heterogeneous dynamics. This is central to the glassy relaxation dynamics of such liquids, which show super-Arrhenius growth of relaxation timescales with decreasing temperature. Despite the importance of dynamical facilitation, there is no theoretical understanding of how facilitation emerges and impacts relaxation dynamics. Here, we present a theory that explains the microscopic origins of dynamical facilitation. We show that dynamics proceeds by localized bond-exchange events, also known as excitations, resulting in the accumulation of elastic stresses with which new excitations can interact. At low temperatures, these elastic interactions dominate and facilitate the creation of new excitations near prior excitations. Using the theory of linear elasticity and Markov processes, we simulate a model, which reproduces multiple aspects of glassy dynamics observed in experiments and molecular simulations, including the stretched exponential decay of relaxation functions, the super-Arrhenius behavior of relaxation timescales as well as their two-dimensional finite-size effects. The model also predicts the subdiffusive behavior of the mean squared displacement (MSD) on short, intermediate timescales. Furthermore, we derive the phonon contributions to diffusion and relaxation, which when combined with the excitation contributions produce the two-step relaxation processes, and the ballistic–subdiffusive–diffusive crossover MSD behaviors commonly found in supercooled liquids.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

A Framework for Process-to-Module Modeling of a-Si/c-Si (HIT) Heterojunction Solar Cells to Investigate the Cell-to-Module Efficiency Gap

The cell-to-module efficiency gap observed in a-Si/c-Si heterojunction solar cells is a key challenge to the broad adoption of this technology. To systematically address this issue, we describe an end-to-end modeling framework to explore the implications of process and device variations at the module level. First, a process model is developed to connect the a-Si deposition parameters to the material properties. Next, a physics-based device model is presented; the model uses the thermionic emission/diffusion theory to capture the essential features of photocurrent and diode injection current. Using the process and device models, the effects of process conditions on cell performance are explored. Finally, the performance of the module, as a function of device and process parameters, is explored to establish the cell-to-module efficiency gap. As a result, the insights developed through this process-to-module modeling framework will help close the cell-to-module efficiency gap of this commercially promising technology.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

A Data-Driven Nonparametric Approach for Probabilistic Load-Margin Assessment Considering Wind Power Penetration

A modern power system is characterized by an increasing penetration of wind power, which results in large uncertainties in its states. These uncertainties must be quantified properly; otherwise, the system security may be threatened. Facing this challenge, here we propose a cost-effective, data-driven approach to assessing a power system's load margin probabilistically. Using actual wind data, a kernel density estimator is applied to infer the nonparametric wind speed distributions, which are further merged into the framework of a vine copula. The latter enables us to simulate complex multivariate and highly dependent model inputs with a variety of bivariate copulae that precisely represent the tail dependence in the correlated samples. Furthermore, to reduce the prohibitive computational time of traditional Monte-Carlo simulations that process a large amount of samples, we propose to use a nonparametric, Gaussian-process-emulator-based reduced-order model to replace the original complicated continuation power-flow model through a Bayesian-learning framework. To accelerate the convergence rate of this Bayesian algorithm, a truncated polynomial chaos surrogate, which serves as a highly efficient, parametric Bayesian prior, is developed. This emulator allows us to execute the time-consuming continuation power-flow solver at the sampled values with a negligible computational cost. Results of simulations that are performed on several test systems reveal the impressive performance of the proposed method in the probabilistic load-margin assessment.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

A propagation-based fault detection and discrimination method and the optimization of sensor deployment

Industrial processes can be affected by faults having a serious impact on operation when not promptly detected and diagnosed. Here in this paper, a propagation-based fault detection and discrimination(PFDD) method is proposed to develop a strategy for fault diagnosis while in the design phase of a system. The PFDD method constructs the system model using the Integrated System Fault Analysis(ISFA) technique. Based on the system model, the propagation of hardware and software faults are simulated qualitatively. Given the results of the simulation, the process by which a fault propagates can be characterized using the qualitative features of system variables including the deviation of the system variables from their expected values, the variation of the system variables over time, and the order in which each variable is influenced during the propagation of the fault. The strategy by which a fault can be detected and discriminated is defined using those features. The PFDD method supports the detection and discrimination of faults in both steady states and transient states. Based on the PFDD method, the optimization of sensor deployment in a system is discussed. A brute force algorithm is developed to examine the system’s capability at diagnosing faults and the cost of sensor deployment for all possible configurations of sensors. The optimal sensor deployment strategy can be derived accordingly. However, the brute force method is only applicable to small-scale systems due to its high computational cost. A genetic algorithm is used to optimize sensor deployment in large-scale systems. The PFDD and sensor deployment optimization methods are applied to the Experimental Breeder Reactor II (EBR-II) for verification.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Status of PyGriffin Development for Integration into the NEAMS Workbench

The integration of Griffin into Workbench, by way of the PyGriffin code package, was initiated by the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program in FY-2022. PyGriffin was developed as a Python wrapper to Griffin to streamline the complex workflow involving mesh, cross section, and Griffin input generation, code execution, and results postprocessing, by improving user experience with high fidelity neutronics analysis through the Workbench GUI interface. PyGriffin can be used as a standalone application or through the PyARC code suite. FY-2023 saw the continued development of PyGriffin to expand its capabilities including advanced post-processing of simulation results and initial development of the Monte Carlo (MC) cross section generation workflow with the Shift MC code. PyGriffin was also approved for open-source software status in FY-2023, initiating plans to move the code repository into an open location. In addition to PyGriffin development, there were many improvements and developments made in PyARC leading to several software releases (latest version is v2.3.0), but the focus of this report is PyGriffin.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Dust on a surface in a plasma: A charge simulation

An electrically isolated particle on a substrate surface will be electrically charged when a plasma is applied above it. We show that the magnitude of this charge is determined by a balance of the impeding ion and electron fluxes that are strongly influenced by the nearby substrate. By simulating this process, we find that the charge density of the particle can be much higher than that of the substrate. This is due to the height of the particle, which causes additional electron collection.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Subject-specific modeling framework for particle deposition using computational fluid dynamics

Quantifying particle deposition and dose in the respiratory tract requires a physiologically realistic representation and reproducible computational workflows. However, existing modeling frameworks, such as the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) compartmental models and the Multiple Path Particle Dosimetry (MPPD) tool, lack detailed deposition profiles and subject-specific capabilities. The combination of advances in computer vision algorithms applied to the respiratory tract and Computational Fluid and Particle Dynamics (CFPD) allows high-fidelity simulations of particle behavior in anatomically accurate geometries derived from individual CT scans. The segmentation, preprocessing, and file preparation task for a CFPD simulation was often time-consuming, and no prior studies to-date have yet presented a fully automated framework. This work presents a fully automated workflow to obtain individualized particle deposition profiles in the human respiratory tract. The pipeline starts with segmenting upper and lower airway geometries using morphological and deep learning-based methods, generating three-dimensional (3D) models from CT imaging data. Next, a series of algorithms are presented to quality check and prepare the 3D geometry for a CFD or CFPD simulation. The preprocessing step includes correcting geometric artifacts, enforcing a physically consistent mesh, and automatically identifying and capping multiple outlets, which is required for CFD/CFPD simulations. These processed models are then input into open-source (OpenFOAM) or commercial (StarCCM+) CFD solvers, where flow and transient particle transport equations — including turbulence and particle–wall interactions are solved under realistic breathing conditions. Finally, the resulting particle deposition profiles can be integrated with Monte Carlo radiation transport codes and state-of-the-art computational phantoms to assess organ-specific absorbed doses in scenarios of radioactive aerosol inhalation. The presented work streamlines respiratory tract segmentation, preprocessing for CFD/CFPD simulations, and integration with dose assessment workflows, reducing manual intervention and improving access to high-fidelity, subject-specific modeling. The high precision in predicted particle deposition and dose distributions can improve personalized treatment strategies in respiratory medicine and refine dose estimates for radiation protection.

AI↗

Definition, dimensionality, and resolution effects on the flame surface area at high Karlovitz number [Turbulent flame surface area at high Karlovitz number]

Direct numerical simulations of turbulent premixed flames are used to assess differences in flame surface area between recent experimental and numerical studies at high Karlovitz number. Simulations performed at varying Karlovitz number and integral length scale reveal a strong correlation between the turbulent flame speed and the flame surface area. Experimental measurements from the literature do not always exhibit such strong correlation. Potential discrepanices between the experimental and numerical methodologies are identified and quantified. The experimental PLIF images are two-dimensional and their resolution is limited by that of the PLIF system. The implication of using two-dimensional isocontours is assessed by post-processing the simulation data. It is shown that the surface computed from the three-dimensional field is always greater than that computed from the two-dimensional images. Furthermore, the effect of the PLIF resolution is assessed by filtering the simulated data. Significant differences between the unfiltered and filtered surface areas are observed at a filter width representative of the PLIF resolution.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Control-Theory-Informed Feature Selection for Detecting Malicious Tampering in Additive Layer Manufacturing Processes

Additive layer manufacturing (ALM) is rapidly becoming an appealing solution to the low-volume manufacturing of metal, polymer, or composite parts. However, ALM’s reliance on digital part specifications, microcontrollers, and modern networking makes these devices vulnerable to malicious tampering by cyber attackers, which can negatively affect part performance and even result in catastrophic failure. We present a hybrid analytic approach to feature discovery using control theoretic techniques and linear modelling on input-output data collected from a representative controller system. Employing this approach, we design, train, and test an anomaly detection system. The preliminary results show that the proposed approach effectively discovers useful input-output relationships for anomaly detection in a simulated ALM process. Application to larger and more complex systems are discussed.

Dawson, Joel↗

Quantification of hydraulic trait control on plant hydrodynamics and risk of hydraulic failure within a demographic structured vegetation model in a tropical forest (FATES–HYDRO V1.0)

Abstract. Vegetation plays a key role in the global carbon cycle and thus is an important component within Earth system models (ESMs) that project future climate. Many ESMs are adopting methods to resolve plant size and ecosystem disturbance history, using vegetation demographic models. These models make it feasible to conduct more realistic simulation of processes that control vegetation dynamics. Meanwhile, increasing understanding of the processes governing plant water use, and ecosystem responses to drought in particular, has led to the adoption of dynamic plant water transport (i.e., hydrodynamic) schemes within ESMs. However, the extent to which variations in plant hydraulic traits affect both plant water stress and the risk of mortality in trait-diverse tropical forests is understudied. In this study, we report on a sensitivity analysis of an existing hydrodynamic scheme (HYDRO) model that is updated and incorporated into the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES) (FATES–HYDRO V1.0). The size- and canopy-structured representation within FATES is able to simulate how plant size and hydraulic traits affect vegetation dynamics and carbon–water fluxes. To better understand this new model system, and its functionality in tropical forest systems in particular, we conducted a global parameter sensitivity analysis at Barro Colorado Island, Panama. We assembled 942 observations of plant hydraulic traits on 306 tropical plant species for stomata, leaves, stems, and roots and determined the best-fit statistical distribution for each trait, which was used in model parameter sampling to assess the parametric sensitivity. We showed that, for simulated leaf water potential and loss of hydraulic conductivity across different plant organs, the four most important traits were associated with xylem conduit taper (buffers increasing hydraulic resistance with tree height), stomatal sensitivity to leaf water potential, maximum stem hydraulic conductivity, and the partitioning of total hydraulic resistance above vs. belowground. Our analysis of individual ensemble members revealed that trees at a high risk of hydraulic failure and potential tree mortality generally have a lower conduit taper, lower maximum xylem conductivity, lower stomatal sensitivity to leaf water potential, and lower resistance to xylem embolism for stem and transporting roots. We expect that our results will provide guidance on future modeling studies using plant hydrodynamic models to predict the forest responses to droughts and future field campaigns that aim to better parameterize plant hydrodynamic models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗