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At least 631 records · Page 35

The Fall Speed Variability of Similarly Sized Ice Particle Aggregates

The terminal velocity ( V t ) of ice hydrometeors is of high importance to atmospheric modeling. V t is governed by the physical characteristics of a hydrometeor, including mass and projected area, as well as environmental conditions. When liquid hydrometeors coalesce to form larger hydrometeors, the resulting hydrometeor can readily be characterized by its spherical or near-spherical shape. For ice hydrometeors, it is more complicated because of the variability of ice shapes possible in the atmosphere as well as the inherent randomness in the aggregation process, which leads to highly variable characteristics. The abundance of atmospheric processes affecting ice particle dimensional characteristics creates potential for highly variable V t for ice particles that are predicted or measured to be of the “same size.” In this article we explore the variability of ice hydrometeor V t both theoretically and through the use of experimental observations. Theoretically, the variability in V t is investigated by analyzing the microphysical characteristics of randomly aggregated hexagonal shapes. The modeled dimensional characteristics are then compared to aircraft probe measurements to constrain the variability in atmospheric ice hydrometeor V t . Results show that the spread in V t can be represented with Gaussian distributions relative to a mean. Variability expressed as the full width at half maximum of the normalized Gaussian probability distribution function is around 20%, with somewhat higher values associated with larger particle sizes and warmer temperatures. Field campaigns where mostly convective clouds were sampled displayed low variability, while Arctic and midlatitude winter campaigns showed broader V t spectra.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Design and Calibration of Autonomous Coherent Doppler Lidar for Space Missions

Developed a new algorithm for the simulation of three dimensional homogeneous turbulent velocity fields. For typical atmospheric conditions it is impossible to produce a simulated velocity field that simultaneously satisfy a given spatial correlation and the corresponding spatial spectrum because of spectral aliasing. The new algorithms produce a turbulent velocity field which has accurate spatial correlations which is required for performance predictions from space-based systems. Developed a new algorithm for extracting the spatial statistics of the atmospheric velocity field using coherent Doppler lidar. The performance of the algorithm was compared with past methods and the new algorithm produces useful results for space-based data, which was not possible before. Developed new methods for verification of the errors in ground-based and space-based Doppler lidar wind measurements. These new methods do not require independent in situ data. This is an important issue for the verification of space-based Doppler lidar measurements of the global wind field. The performance of the new algorithm was compared with past results for both space-based and ground-based operation. The new algorithm has the best performance and is the only algorithm that performed satisfactory for spacebased operation. The performance of coherent Doppler lidar for a space missions with various scanning geometries was determined using computer simulation which contained the effects of random instrumental velocity errors, wind shear, wind variability along the range-gate and from shot-to-shot, and random variations in atmospheric aerosol backscatter over the measurement volume. The bias in the velocity estimates was small and the accuracy in the is typically less than 0.5 m/s for high signal conditions. For a large number of shot per velocity estimate, the threshold signal level for acceptable estimates is proportional to the number of shots to the minus one half power. This agrees with previous results determined for ground-based measurements. The use of multi-element optical detectors for autonomous operation of coherent Doppler lidar was shown to be a very promising technique. Optimal detector geometries were determined by computer simulation of performance: for ground-based testing with a fixed calibration target and for space-based operation using the random surface returns. The effects of refractive turbulence on ground-based calibration of coherent Doppler lidar was determined by computer simulations and compared with theoretical predictions. New techniques were required to correctly predict performance for the focused beam geometry commonly used for verification of space-based operation. An improved velocity estimator was evaluated for space-based applications were signal shot measurements are used to produce vector wind measurements. This permits more accurate measurements when the signal level is not known a priori or not available from multiple shot measurements. The average Doppler lidar signal spectrum including the effects of velocity turbulence was derived and calculated. This permits new estimation algorithms for turbulence based on spectral estimates. In situ atmospheric measurements were conducted and analyzed using an instrumented kite-platform. This work helps provide the required in situ data for verification of Doppler lidar velocity statistics.

Frehlich, Rod G.↗

Interpolating Low Time-Resolution Forecast Data

Methodology that interpolates low time-resolution data (e.g., hourly) to high time-resolution (e.g., minutely) with variability patterns extracted from historical records. Magnitude of the variability inserted into the low time resolution data can be adjusted according to the installed capacity represented by the low time-resolution data compared to that by historical records. This approach enables detailed analysis of the impacts from wind and solar on power system intra-hour operations and balancing reserve requirements even with only hourly data. It also allows convenient creation of high resolution wind or solar generation data with various degree of variability to investigate their operational impacts. The methodology comprises of the following steps: 1. Smooth the historical data (set A) with an appropriate window length l to get its trend (set B); l can be a fraction of an hour (e.g., 15 minutes) or longer than an hour, of which the length of the variability patterns will be; 2. Extract the variable component (set C) of historical data by subtracting the smooth trend from it, i.e. set C = set A - set B 3. For each window length l of the variable component data set, find the average value x (will call it base component) of the corresponding window of the historical data set; 4. Define a series of segments (set D) that the values of data will be grouped into, e.g. (0, 0.1), (0.1, 0.2), ..., (0.9, 1.0) after normalization; Link each variability pattern to a data segment based on its corresponding base component x; after this step, each data segment should be linked to multiple variability patterns after this step; 5. Use spline function to interpolate the low time-resolution forecast data (set E) to become a high time-resolution smooth curve (set F); 6. Based on the window length l , calculate the average value y in each window length of set F; find the data segment that y belongs to; then randomly select one of the variability patterns linked to this data segment; 7. Add the selected variability pattern in each window to set F to get the high time-resolution data (set G) with variability observed from historical data set A; a coefficient k can be multiplied to the selected variability pattern to reflect the potential difference in variability between forecast set E and historical data set A caused by installation capacity and other factors. 8. After set G is constructed, variability statistics can be checked for set A and set G for comparison. Adjust the coefficient k if necessary to achieve desired variability in the reconstructed data.

Lu, Shuai↗

Effects of the Mount Pinatubo eruption on decadal climate prediction skill of Pacific sea surface temperatures

Multi-model simulations show a post-Pinatubo eruption sequence of Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) that includes a La Niña-like pattern the third northern winter after an eruption, opposite in sign to what was observed after Pinatubo. This leads to the loss of hindcast skill for years in the 1990s affected by the Pinatubo eruption because the post-eruption internal variability of the climate system did not match the multi-model forced response. Agung (1963) and El Chichón (1982) happened to have post-eruption Pacific SST sequences more similar to the multi-model response and thus do not degrade prediction skill as measured by anomaly pattern correlation in the hindcasts. As such, decadal hindcast skill is reduced if the post-eruption randomly occurring internal El Niño variability in the observations deviates from the multi-model forced response that, by definition, averages out internal variability in favor of the forced response.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

An approximate analysis of delay for fixed and variable length packets in an unslotted ALOHA channel

In this paper we compute the mean delay for an unslotted ALOHA random access channel for both fixed and variable length packets. The analysis is based on the concept of a user cycle and obtains steady state results. When the channel is 'stable', the results seem quite accurate. The input parameters to the model are the number of users, the mean think time, and mean retransmission time. The model yields total traffic, throughput and delay but only the latter is emphasized here. Because of the steady state nature of the analysis, no information is obtained on stability. The results are verified by simulation.

Ferguson, M. J.↗

Characteristics of Water Vapor Turbulence Profiles in Convective Boundary Layers During the Wet and Dry Seasons Over Darwin

This study explores water vapor turbulence in the convective boundary layer (CBL) using the Raman lidar observations the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) site located at Darwin, Australia. These observations have temporal and vertical resolutions of 10 s and 37.5 m, respectively. An autocovariance technique has been used to separate out the random instrument error from the atmospheric variability during time periods when the CBL is cloud-free, quasi-stationary and well mixed. We identified 62 cases, comprising of 13 monsoon and 49 non-monsoon events, over the 5-year data record period. The seasonal variations of the vertical profiles of integral scale, variance, coefficient of the structure function, and skewness were analyzed and compared with similar observations from the Raman lidar at the ARM Southern Great Plains (SGP) site. The monsoon shows larger median variance profiles than the non-monsoon. The median profile of the variance from the non-monsoon and the SGP site are found to have similar magnitudes between 0.3-0.75 zi, while the median variance profile from the monsoon and the SGP are approximately the same between 0.9-1.1 zi. The variance and coefficient of the structure function are linearly related by height, with larger slopes in the monsoon season suggesting larger dissipation rates in that season relative to the non-monsoon. The median value in the skewness is mostly positive below 0.6 zi and above this it becomes negative until it crosses zero just below 1.0 zi. Its smallest value is seen at around 0.95 zi and it remains positive above 1.0 zi.

Osman, Mohammed K.↗

Uncertainty Analysis of the CE-22 Advanced Nozzle Test Facility

This paper presents methods and results of a detailed measurement uncertainty analysis that was performed for the Advanced Nozzle Test Facility, CE-22, located at the NASA Glenn Research Center. Results for the uncertainty in thrust and flow coefficients, in addition to other variables of interest, are provided. Results are presented separately as random uncertainty (characterizing errors inherent to instrument or measurement environment, impacting repeatability), systematic uncertainty (capturing inaccuracies due to measurement process, calibration, installation effects or other sources which may introduce bias), and total combined uncertainty. The statistical methods and engineering judgments used to estimate elemental uncertainties are described. The analysis tool MANTUS (Measurement Analysis Tool for Uncertainty in Systems) was used to quantify instrumentation system uncertainty, and statistical analysis and engineering judgment were used to quantify other random and systematic uncertainty sources. The Monte Carlo method was used to propagate systematic and random elemental uncertainties to determine the uncertainties of various calculated variables of interest.

data quality↗

Combining remotely sensed and other measurements for hydrologic areal averages

A method is described for combining measurements of hydrologic variables of various sampling geometries and measurement accuracies to produce an estimated mean areal value over a watershed and a measure of the accuracy of the mean areal value. The method provides a means to integrate measurements from conventional hydrological networks and remote sensing. The resulting areal averages can be used to enhance a wide variety of hydrological applications including basin modeling. The correlation area method assigns weights to each available measurement (point, line, or areal) based on the area of the basin most accurately represented by the measurement. The statistical characteristics of the accuracy of the various measurement technologies and of the random fields of the hydrologic variables used in the study (water equivalent of the snow cover and soil moisture) required to implement the method are discussed.

Johnson, E. R.↗

Interactions Between Climate Mean and Variability Drive Future Agroecosystem Vulnerability

ABSTRACT Agriculture is crucial for global food supply and dominates the Earth's land surface. It is unknown, however, how slow but relentless changes in climate mean state, versus random extreme conditions arising from changing variability , will affect agroecosystems' carbon fluxes, energy fluxes, and crop production. We used an advanced weather generator to partition changes in mean climate state versus variability for both temperature and precipitation, producing forcing data to drive factorial‐design simulations of US Midwest agricultural regions in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model. We found that an increase in temperature mean lowers stored carbon, plant productivity, and crop yield, and tends to convert agroecosystems from a carbon sink to a source, as expected; it also can cause local to regional cooling in the earth system model through its effects on the Bowen Ratio. The combined effect of mean and variability changes on carbon fluxes and pools was nonlinear, that is, greater than each individual case. For instance, gross primary production reduces by 9%, 1%, and 13% due to change in mean temperature, change in temperature variability, and change in both temperature mean and variability, respectively. Overall, the scenario with change in both temperature and precipitation means leads to the largest reduction in carbon fluxes (−16% gross primary production), carbon pools (−35% vegetation carbon), and crop yields (−33% and −22% median reduction in yield for corn and soybean, respectively). By unambiguously parsing the effects of changing climate mean versus variability and quantifying their nonadditive impacts, this study lays a foundation for more robust understanding and prediction of agroecosystems' vulnerability to 21st‐century climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Resistance controllability and variability improvement in a TaO{sub x}-based resistive memory for multilevel storage application

In order to obtain reliable multilevel cell (MLC) characteristics, resistance controllability between the different resistance levels is required especially in resistive random access memory (RRAM), which is prone to resistance variability mainly due to its intrinsic random nature of defect generation and filament formation. In this study, we have thoroughly investigated the multilevel resistance variability in a TaO{sub x}-based nanoscale (<30 nm) RRAM operated in MLC mode. It is found that the resistance variability not only depends on the conductive filament size but also is a strong function of oxygen vacancy concentration in it. Based on the gained insights through experimental observations and simulation, it is suggested that forming thinner but denser conductive filament may greatly improve the temporal resistance variability even at low operation current despite the inherent stochastic nature of resistance switching process.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

SU-E-J-227: Breathing Pattern Consistency and Reproducibility: Comparative Analysis for Supine and Prone Body Positioning

Purpose: Evaluate and compare the cycle-to-cycle consistency of breathing patterns and their reproducibility over the course of treatment, for supine and prone positioning. Methods: Respiratory traces from 25 patients were recorded for sequential supine/prone 4DCT scans acquired prior to treatment, and during the course of the treatment (weekly or bi-weekly). For each breathing cycle, the average(AVE), end-of-exhale(EoE) and end-of-inhale( EoI) locations were identified using in-house developed software. In addition, the mean values and variations for the above quantities were computed for each breathing trace. F-tests were used to compare the cycle-to-cycle consistency of all pairs of sequential supine and prone scans. Analysis of variances was also performed using population means for AVE, EoE and EoI to quantify differences between the reproducibility of prone and supine respiration traces over the treatment course. Results: Consistency: Cycle-to-cycle variations are less in prone than supine in the pre-treatment and during-treatment scans for AVE, EoE and EoI points, for the majority of patients (differences significant at p<0.05). The few cases where the respiratory pattern had more variability in prone appeared to be random events. Reproducibility: The reproducibility of breathing patterns (supine and prone) improved as treatment progressed, perhaps due to patients becoming more comfortable with the procedure. However, variability in supine position continued to remain significantly larger than in prone (p<0.05), as indicated by the variance analysis of population means for the pretreatment and subsequent during-treatment scans. Conclusions: Prone positioning stabilizes breathing patterns in most subjects investigated in this study. Importantly, a parallel analysis of the same group of patients revealed a tendency towards increasing motion amplitude of tumor targets in prone position regardless of their size or location; thus, the choice for body positioning during radiation therapy will have to consider the clinical relevance of the two opposing trends - breathing consistency and motion amplitude.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

An increase in marine heatwaves without significant changes in surface ocean temperature variability

Marine heatwaves (MHWs)—extremely warm, persistent sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies causing substantial ecological and economic consequences—have increased worldwide in recent decades. Concurrent increases in global temperatures suggest that climate change impacted MHW occurrences, beyond random changes arising from natural internal variability. Moreover, the long-term SST warming trend was not constant but instead had more rapid warming in recent decades. Here we show that this nonlinear trend can—on its own—appear to increase SST variance and hence MHW frequency. Using a Linear Inverse Model to separate climate change contributions to SST means and internal variability, both in observations and CMIP6 historical simulations, we find that most MHW increases resulted from regional mean climate trends that alone increased the probability of SSTs exceeding a MHW threshold. Our results suggest the need to carefully attribute global warming-induced changes in climate extremes, which may not always reflect underlying changes in variability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

SU-E-J-263: Repeatability of SUV and Texture Parameters in Serial PET Studies

Purpose: Standardized uptake values (SUV) are standard quantitative PET measures of FDG tumor uptake used,and are used as a tool to monitor response to therapy. Textural analysis is emerging as a new tool for assessing intratumoral heterogeneity which may allow better tissue characterization and improved prediction of response and survival rate.Understanding what variations may be expected in these parameters is key in order to make decisions based on how the change throughout the course of treatment. The aim of this study was to assess repeatability in SUV measures and texture parameters,and establish criteria that differentiate changes associated with treatment rather than statistical variability. Methods: Eighty patients,167 random lesions total,were scanned in a GE Discovery STE PET/CT Scanner. One field-of-view was chosen centered on the largest lesion observed in a clinical whole-body FDG PET.Immediately following,a gated 9 min scan was acquired in list mode,without changing the patient’s position between any scans. Data was replayed into 3 time bins,3 min each,in order to insure equivalent noise characteristics in each replicate.Data was reconstructed into 128×128×47 square matrices.One VOI was drawn over each lesion for each patient and used to segment all 3 replicates. The mean.max and peak SUV were calculated for each VOI and replicate. First-order textural features were also calculated (skewness and kurtosis). Repeatability was calculated as the average standard deviation over the mean for the 3 repeated measurements for each lesion. Results: The average percent error in the SUV max,peak and mean were 3.4%(0– 12.9%),1.9% (0–7.5%),2.8% (0–12.2%),respectively.For skewness and kurtosis they were 10.9% and 17.8%. Conclusion: We have shown that there is a large variation in %error in SUV measures across patients. SUVpeak is the least variable and kurtosis and skewness parameters are less reliable thatn SUVs.Higher order textures are be.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Subsampling of Parametric Models with Bifidelity Boosting

Least squares regression is a ubiquitous tool for building emulators (a.k.a. surrogate models) of problems across science and engineering for purposes such as design space exploration and uncertainty quantification. When the regression data are generated using an experimental design process (e.g., a quadrature grid) involving computationally expensive models, or when the data size is large, sketching techniques have shown promise at reducing the cost of the construction of the regression model while ensuring accuracy comparable to that of the full data. However, random sketching strategies, such as those based on leverage scores, lead to regression errors that are random and may exhibit large variability. To mitigate this issue, we present a novel boosting approach that leverages cheaper, lower-fidelity data of the problem at hand to identify the best sketch among a set of candidate sketches. This in turn specifies the sketch of the intended high-fidelity model and the associated data. We provide theoretical analyses of this bifidelity boosting (BFB) approach and discuss the conditions the low- and high-fidelity data must satisfy for a successful boosting. In doing so, we derive a bound on the residual norm of the BFB sketched solution relating it to its ideal, but computationally expensive, high-fidelity boosted counterpart. Finally, empirical results on both manufactured and PDE data corroborate the theoretical analyses and illustrate the efficacy of the BFB solution in reducing the regression error, as compared to the nonboosted solution.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

iRF v2.0

A predictive, stable, and interpretable machine learning tool: the iterative random forest algorithm (iRF). iRF discovers high-order interactions among variables with the same order of computational cost as random forests (RF). We have demonstrated the utility of iRF in several applications in the biological and environmental sciences. It is a general purpose machine learning framework for building "explainable" predictive engines.

Brown, JamesB.↗

Predictive links between microbial communities and biological oxygen utilization in the Arctic Ocean

Microbial metabolism influences rates of net community production (NCP), exerting a direct biological control on marine oxygen and carbon fluxes. In the Arctic, it is increasingly important to understand and quantify this process, as ecological and oceanographic conditions shift due to changing climate. Here, we describe potential ecological links between pelagic microbial diversity and an NCP precursor, biological oxygen utilization, using machine learning and paired observations of community structure and metabolic activity from a seasonally and spatially variable transect of the Arctic Ocean (2019–2020 MOSAiC Expedition). Community structure was determined using 16S (prokaryotic) and 18S (eukaryotic) rRNA gene amplicon sequencing, and metabolic activity was derived from ΔO 2 /Ar. Using self-organizing maps, we identified clear successional patterns in observed microbial community structure that were seasonally driven in the upper ocean and vertically stratified with depth. Metabolic activity was also stratified, with a primarily net heterotrophic water column (median −1.5% biological oxygen saturation), excepting periodic oxygen supersaturation (maximum: 13.6%) within the mixed layer. Using DNA sequences as predictor variables, we then constructed a random forest regression model that reliably reconstructed biological oxygen concentrations (root mean squared error = 4.14 μmol kg −1 ). Top predictors from this model were from heterotrophic (bacteria) or potentially mixotrophic (dinoflagellate) taxa. These analyses highlight biologically driven diagnostic tools that can be used to expand biogeochemical datasets and improve the microbial perspectives and metabolisms represented in ecological models of net productivity and carbon flux in a changing Arctic Ocean.

Chamberlain, Emelia J. [Univ. of San Diego, San Di↗

Exploring microscopic driving volatility in naturalistic driving environment prior to involvement in safety critical events—Concept of event-based driving volatility

The sequence of instantaneous driving decisions and its variations, known as driving volatility, prior to involvement in safety critical events can be a leading indicator of safety. Here, this study focuses on the component of “driving volatility matrix” related to specific normal and safety-critical events, named “event-based volatility.” The research issue is characterizing volatility in instantaneous driving decisions in the longitudinal and lateral directions, and how it varies across drivers involved in normal driving, crash, and/or near-crash events. To explore the issue, a rigorous quasi-experimental study design is adopted to help compare driving behaviors in normal vs unsafe outcomes. Using a unique real-world naturalistic driving database from the 2nd Strategic Highway Research Program (SHRP), a test set of 9593 driving events featuring 2.2 million temporal samples of real-world driving are analyzed. This study features a plethora of kinematic sensors, video, and radar spatiotemporal data about vehicle movement and therefore offers the opportunity to initiate such exploration. By using information related to longitudinal and lateral accelerations and vehicular jerk, 24 different aggregate and segmented measures of driving volatility are proposed that captures variations in extreme instantaneous driving decisions. In doing so, careful attention is given to the issue of intentional vs. unintentional volatility. The volatility indices, as leading indicators of near-crash and crash events, are then linked with safety critical events, crash propensity, and other event specific explanatory variables. Owing to the presence of unobserved heterogeneity and omitted variable bias, fixed- and random-parameter discrete choice models are developed that relate crash propensity to unintentional driving volatility and other factors. Statistically significant evidence is found that driver volatilities in near-crash and crash events are significantly greater than volatility in normal driving events. After controlling for traffic, roadway, and unobserved factors, the results suggest that greater intentional volatility increases the likelihood of both crash and near-crash events. A one-unit increase in intentional volatility is associated with positive vehicular jerk in longitudinal direction increases the chance of crash and near-crash outcome by 15.79 and 12.52 percentage points, respectively. Importantly, intentional volatility in positive vehicular jerk in lateral direction has more negative consequences than intentional volatility in positive vehicular jerk in longitudinal direction. Compared to acceleration/deceleration, vehicular jerk can better characterize the volatility in microscopic instantaneous driving decisions prior to involvement in safety critical events. Finally, the magnitudes of correlations exhibit significant heterogeneity, and that accounting for the heterogeneous effects in the modeling framework can provide more reliable and accurate results. The study demonstrates the value of quasi-experimental study design and big data analytics for understanding extreme driving behaviors in safe vs. unsafe driving outcomes.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Low-rank separated representation surrogates of high-dimensional stochastic functions: Application in Bayesian inference

This study introduces a non-intrusive approach in the context of low-rank separated representation to construct a surrogate of high-dimensional stochastic functions, e.g., PDEs/ODEs, in order to decrease the computational cost of Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulations in Bayesian inference. The surrogate model is constructed via a regularized alternative least-square regression with Tikhonov regularization using a roughening matrix computing the gradient of the solution, in conjunction with a perturbation-based error indicator to detect optimal model complexities. The model approximates a vector of a continuous solution at discrete values of a physical variable. The required number of random realizations to achieve a successful approximation linearly depends on the function dimensionality. The computational cost of the model construction is quadratic in the number of random inputs, which potentially tackles the curse of dimensionality in high-dimensional stochastic functions. Furthermore, this vector-valued separated representation-based model, in comparison to the available scalar-valued case, leads to a significant reduction in the cost of approximation by an order of magnitude equal to the vector size. The performance of the method is studied through its application to three numerical examples including a 41-dimensional elliptic PDE and a 21-dimensional cavity flow.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗