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NASA NTRS2018

Space-to-Ground Interactions While Conducting Scientific Fieldwork Under Mars Mission Constraints

The Biologic Analog Science Associated with Lava Terrains (BASALT) project is a 4-year program dedicated to iteratively designing, implementing, and evaluating concepts of operations (ConOps) and supporting capabilities to enable and enhance scientific exploration for future human Mars missions. BASALT incorporates three field deployments during which real (non-simulated) biological and geochemical field science is conducted at two high-fidelity Mars analog locations under simulated Mars mission conditions, including communication de-lays and data transmission limitations. BASALT’s primary science objective is to investigate how the redox conditions of altered basaltic environments affect the development of microbial communities in these Mars-relevant settings. Field sites include the active East Rift Zone on the Big Island of Hawaii, reminiscent of early Mars when basaltic volcanism and interaction with water were widespread, and the dormant eastern Snake River Plain in Idaho, similar to present-day Mars where basaltic volcanism is rare and most evidence for volcano-driven hydrothermal activity is relict. BASALT’s primary science operations objective is to investigate exploration ConOps and capabilities that facilitate scientific return during human-robotic exploration under Mars mission constraints. Each field deployment consists of ten extravehicular activities (EVAs) on the volcanic flows in which two extravehicular and two intravehicular (IV) crew-members conduct the science while communicating across time delay and under bandwidth constraints with an Earth-based Mission Support Center (MSC) comprised of expert scientists and operators. Communication latencies of 5 and 15-minute one-way light time and low (0.512 Mb/s uplink, 1.54 Mb/s down-link) and high (5.0 Mb/s uplink, 10.0 Mb/s downlink) bandwidth conditions are being evaluated. EVA crewmembers communicate with the MSC via voice and text messaging and provide scientific instrument data, still imagery, video streams, and GPS tracking information. The MSC reviews this data across delay and provides recommendations for presampling and sampling tasks. The scientists used dynamic leaderboards (priority rank-ing lists), to track and rank candidate samples relative to one another and against the science objectives for the current EVA and the overall mission. Updates to the dynamic leaderboards are relayed regularly to the IV crewmembers to provide scientific feedback from Earth and to help minimize crew idle time (time spent waiting for Earth input during which no productive tasks are performed). EVA timelines are strategically designed to enable continuous (delayed) feedback from an Earth-based science team while simultaneously minimizing crew idle time. Such timelines are operationally advantageous, reducing transport costs by eliminating the need for crews to return to the same locations on multiple EVAs while still providing opportunities for recommendations from science experts on Earth, and scientifically advantageous by minimizing the potential for cross-contamination across sites. This paper will highlight the space-to-ground interaction results from the three BASALT field deployments, including planned versus actual EVA time-line data, ground assimilation times (the amount of time available to the MSC to provide input to the crew), and idle time. Furthermore, we describe how these results vary under the different communication latency and bandwidth conditions. Together, these data will provide a basis for guiding and prioritizing capability development for future human exploration missions.

Beaton, Kara H.↗

NASA NTRS2020

Parametric Cost Estimates of Four 20 Ton Payload Mars EDL Vehicle Concepts

Cost is one of the biggest obstacles to sending humans to Mars. Many studies have examined various vehicles and/or technologies which could be used to send humans to Mars. However, nearly all of these studies have either ignored cost or have used the mass of the vehicles as a surrogate for cost. This work presents parametric cost estimates of four Mars Entry, Descent, and Landing vehicle concepts capable of landing 20 tons of payload on the surface of Mars. The concepts are the Co-Optimization Blunt-body Re-entry Analysis-Mid lift to drag ratio Rigid Vehicle (Cobra–MRV), Adaptive Deployable Entry and Placement Technology (ADEPT), Hypersonic Inflatable Aerodynamic Decelerator (HIAD), and Capsule concepts. Two variants of the HIAD concept are studied, one with a single HIAD heatshield and one with two HIADs. The study presents the development and production cost of each vehicle and the total cost to build five flight units and fifteen flight units. Five flight units is representative of a single mission, or a "Flags and Footprints" style campaign, whereas fifteen flight units is representative of multiple missions going to multiple sites on Mars. All costs presented in this work are normalized to the average of the first unit production cost of the lander concepts. There is a large amount of uncertainty both in the design of the vehicles and the cost of the vehicles and it is impossible to claim with certainty which vehicle will cost the least. However, it is likely that the total cost to produce five flight units will be in the following ranking from least costly to most costly, Single HIAD, Capsule, Dual HIAD, Cobra, ADEPT. The ranking for fifteen units is similar but with the positions of the Dual HIAD and Cobra reversed. This study only considers the cost of the entry vehicle and does not take into account the effect of the entry vehicle’s mass on the cost of the in-space propulsion stage or launch vehicle.

Paul D Friz↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Using the System Complexity Metric (SCM) to Compare CO2 Removal Systems

A fundamental cause of difficulty in large engineering projects is their inherent complexity. An impression of complexity occurs if a system is simply difficult to understand, where there is no obvious mental model that correctly predicts its behavior. Higher system complexity is usually associated with higher cost and higher failure rate. Complexity is perceived if a system has many diverse components, multiple interactions and feedback loops, transients and dynamic behavior, and unanticipated failure modes. Identifying and removing these signs of complexity should improve performance and reduce the cost and failure rate. Complexity can be directly measured by the number of components and their interactions. The System Complexity Metric (SCM) is defined as the sum of the number of parts in a system, N, plus the number of the one-way interconnections between them, I. SCM = N + I. The SCM is easily determined by direct inspection of the system block diagram. SCM can be used to compare systems and to guide their redesign to reduce cost and failure rate. Carbon dioxide removal systems are analyzed using SCM, cost, and failure rate. As in previous work, cost is directly proportional to SCM and that failure rate increases as a power of SCM for large differences in SCM. The SCM ranking of carbon dioxide removal systems is the same as their ranking in detailed analysis and practice.

Harry W. Jones↗

NASA NTRS2019

Swift-XRT Follow-up of Gravitational-wave Triggers in the Second Advanced LIGO/Virgo Observing Run

The Neil Gehrels Swift Observatory carried out prompt searches for gravitational-wave (GW) events detected by the LIGO/Virgo Collaboration (LVC) during the second observing run ("O2"). Swift performed extensive tiling of eight LVC triggers, two of which had very low false-alarm rates (GW170814 and the epochal GW170817), indicating a high confidence of being astrophysical in origin; the latter was the first GW event to have an electromagnetic counterpart detected. In this paper we describe the follow-up performed during O2 and the results of our searches. No GW electromagnetic counterparts were detected; this result is expected, as GW170817 remained the only astrophysical event containing at least one neutron star after LVC's later retraction of some events. A number of X-ray sources were detected, with the majority of identified sources being active galactic nuclei. We discuss the detection rate of transient X-ray sources and their implications in the O2 tiling searches. Finally, we describe the lessons learned during O2 and how these are being used to improve the Swift follow-up of GW events. In particular, we simulate a population of gamma-ray burst afterglows to evaluate our source ranking system's ability to differentiate them from unrelated and uncataloged X-ray sources. We find that ≈60%–70% of afterglows whose jets are oriented toward Earth will be given high rank (i.e., "interesting" designation) by the completion of our second follow-up phase (assuming that their location in the sky was observed), but that this fraction can be increased to nearly 100% by performing a third follow-up observation of sources exhibiting fading behavior.

N. J. Klingler↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Continuum covariance propagation for understanding variance loss in advective systems

At the heart of modern data assimilation schemes is covariance propagation.Loss of variance experienced in large-scale applications such as numerical weather prediction is problematic, and the development of auxiliary methods to mitigate this issue is an active research area. The focus of this work is to understand the root causes of variance loss and show that for advective dynamics, the covariance propagation by itself typically causes significant, spurious loss of variance, even at full rank. To demonstrate this, we first study continuum covariance propagation by analyzing the covariance evolution equation for advective dynamics. The behavior of this evolution equation changes abruptly as the correlation length tends to zero, for example in the vicinity of sharp gradients in the advection field. This happens because the diagonal of the kernel of the covariance operator is a characteristic surface for advective dynamics. Our numerical experiments then confirm that the variance lost during numerical propagation greatly exceeds that due to numerical dissipation alone. The variance loss is driven primarily by inaccurate variance propagation resulting from standard, full-rank covariance propagation schemes, which have difficulty capturing the abrupt change in dynamics as the correlation length tends to zero. These results suggest that developing local covariance propagation methods may prove useful in ameliorating the variance loss observed in data assimilation schemes

Covariance Propagation↗

NASA NTRS2021

Evaluation of Higher-order Quadrature Schemes in Improving Computational Efficiency for Orientation-averaged Single-Scattering Properties of Nonspherical Ice Particles

We evaluate several high-order quadrature schemes for accuracy and efficacy in obtaining orientation-averaged single-scattering properties (SSPs). We use the highly efficient MIDAS to perform electromagnetic scattering calculations to evaluate the gain in efficiency from these schemes. MIDAS is shown to be superior to DDSCAT, a popular discrete dipole approximation (DDA) method. This study is motivated by the fact that quality physical precipitation retrievals rely on using accurate orientation-averaged SSPs derived from realistic hydrometeors as input to radiative transfer Models (RTMs). The DDA has been a popular choice for single-scattering calculations, due to its versatility with respect to target geometry. However, being iterative-solver-based (ISB), the most used DDA codes, e.g. DDSCAT and ADDA, must solve the scattering problem for each orientation of the target separately. As the size parameter and geometric anisotropy of the hydrometeor increase, the number of orientations needed to obtain accurate orientation-averages can increase drastically and so does the computation cost incurred by the ISB-DDA methods. MIDAS is a Direct-Solver-Based (DSB) code, its decomposition of the original large matrix with a high rank into multiple more manageable smaller matrices of lower ranks makes it much more computationally efficient while maintaining excellent accuracy. In addition, direct solvers consider all requested orientations at once, giving MIDAS further advantage over popular ISB-DDA methods. MIDAS, when combined with high-order quadrature for orientation averaging, can be greater than three orders of magnitude more efficient in obtaining RTM-ready SSPs of complex-shaped hydrometeors than existing ISB-DDA methods, with the native quadrature schemes they offer.

Ines Fenni↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Using the System Complexity Metric (SCM) to Compare CO2 Reduction Systems

A fundamental cause of difficulty in large engineering projects is their inherent complexity. An impression of complexity occurs if a system is simply difficult to understand, where there is no obvious mental model that correctly predicts its behavior. Higher system complexity is usually associated with higher cost and higher failure rate. Complexity is perceived if a system has many diverse components, multiple interactions and feedback loops, transients and dynamic behavior, and unanticipated failure modes. Identifying and removing these signs of complexity should improve performance and reduce the cost and failure rate. Complexity can be directly measured by the number of components and their interactions. The System Complexity Metric (SCM) is defined as the sum of the number of parts in a system, N, plus the number of the one-way interconnections between them, I. SCM = N + I. The SCM is easily determined by direct inspection of the system block diagram. SCM can be used to compare systems and to guide their redesign to reduce cost and failure rate. Carbon dioxide reduction systems are analyzed using SCM, cost, and failure rate. As in previous work, cost is directly proportional to SCM and that failure rate increases as a power of SCM for large differences in SCM. The SCM ranking of carbon dioxide reduction systems is the same as their ranking in detailed analysis and practice.

Harry W. Jones↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Improving Efficacy and Safety of Pharmacological Treatment Through Precision Medicine and Pharmacogenomics for Human Deep Space Exploration

INTRODUCTION: Future spaceflight will require increased crew medical autonomy as exploration class missions expanding duration and distance from Earth, especially for Mars missions. As mission duration increases, it will be even more essential to have appropriate amounts of effective medication to ensure the maintenance of crew health and performance. Conversely, mass and volume constraints will become more severe as future spaceflight expands beyond low Earth orbit, where resupply is difficult or becomes impossible. These constraints thus convey an urgency to further tailor medications included in the spacecraft formulary and increased examination of appropriate dosing regimens. BACKGROUND: Precision Health is an exciting area of cutting-edge research and medicine focused on maintaining an individual’s health and performance through in-depth understanding of an individual’s unique factors and molecular profiles. This approach can be adapted to better predict, monitor, and address physiological responses to the spaceflight environment. One example is the field of pharmacogenomics (PGX),the study of how the expressed genome impacts drug responses with the goal of prescribing the right dose of the right drug at the right time. Specifically, PGX testing provides valuable information on an individual’s precise allelic variations to guide physicians in making informed decisions on pharmaceutical choice and dosing to avoid adverse drug events and maximize pharmacological efficacy. The goal of this study was to evaluate which drugs in the current space pharmacy could be evaluated using PGX testing and to understand the potential impact on the health and wellness of the astronaut population. Additionally, we sought to evaluate clinically available FDA-approved PGX testing solutions to better understand its applicability. METHODS: A complete list of drugs onboard the International Space Station (ISS) was analyzed for risk and likelihood of drug failure and PGX actionability. This analysis encompassed both personal astronaut medications, including supplements and over the counter drugs (n=151) and ISS MedKit formulary medications (n=95). Duplicate medications and different formulations were removed, which resulted in 157 total drugs used in the subsequent analysis. A 5x5 risk assessment table was produced by examining the likelihood of drug failure compared to the consequence of drug failure. Likelihood of individual drug failure was defined by whether existing processes are sufficient to prevent adverse events, as ranked from 1 (very low, can easily be prevented) to 5 (very high, cannot be prevented) during a Mars mission. In contrast, the consequence of drug failure was defined by impact to safety, schedule, cost or technical and ranked from 1 (very low) to 5 (very high).A comprehensive assessment of commercially available PGX solutions is currently underway to evaluate specimen requirements, cost/benefit analysis (cost vs. number of alleles assessed), utility of variant analysis, relevance to inflight medication usage, quality of reporting in enabling clinical application, and ease of integration into electronic medical records. RESULTS: Risk assessments(LxC 5x5 table) indicated29medicationswere in the yellow or red zone driven predominantly by drug failure or safety concerns, with the remainder(n=128)of the medications in the green zone where risk is acceptable. We found that current PGX testing results could impact 21% of the total medications in the ISS MedKit and IMAK; of these, 9 medications currently have direct clinically actionable guidance available. Results of the clinical PGX solution evaluations as related to these medications will be presented. CONCLUSION: PGX testing has demonstrated clear benefits in terrestrial medicine and clinical environments for the selection of proper medications, avoiding adverse drug reactions, and maximizing drug efficacy. We propose that similar benefits would be bestowed on the astronaut and commercial spaceflight passenger population by performing preemptive pre-flight PGX testing to reduce risk of mission failure due to ineffective or toxic medications, improve targeting drug efficacy and safety, and further open the door to countermeasure research exploring PGX-related allelic variants. For example, PGX results could allow tailoring of specific medications at optimal doses more precisely to each individual astronaut, particularly in areas of space motion sickness, sleep aids, and analgesics. An additional benefit is that PGX results could provide information for better planning of the components of a space pharmacy for deep space missions to be more cost effective and more efficient in the utilization of limited pharmaceutical resources. Finally, while PGX testing of the astronaut corps is not currently conducted, this approach could provide immediate impact in support of mission success by reducing risks, optimizing astronaut performance, and providing valuable insights into long-term astronaut health. Such advancements in clinical decision making are important next steps in building dynamic individual risk profiles for astronauts, increasing crew autonomy and providing tailored countermeasures

Alice R W Tang↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Improving Efficacy and Safety of Pharmacological Treatment Through Precision Health and Pharmacogenomics

INTRODUCTION: Future spaceflight will require increased crew medical autonomy as exploration class missions expand in duration and distance from Earth, especially for Mars missions. As mission duration increases, it will be essential to have appropriate amounts of effective medication to ensure the maintenance of crew health and performance. Conversely, mass and volume constraints will become more severe as future spaceflight expands beyond low Earth orbit, where resupply is difficult or becomes impossible. These constraints thus convey an urgency to tailor medications for individual crewmembers and further examine appropriate dosing regimens. BACKGROUND: Precision Health is an exciting area of medicine focused on maintaining an individual’s health and performance through in-depth understanding of an individual’s unique clinical and environmental history, genetic makeup, and molecular profiles. This approach can be adapted to better predict, monitor, and address physiological responses to the spaceflight environment. A subset of this field is pharmacogenomics (PGX), the study of how the expressed genome impacts drug responses with the goal of prescribing the right dose of the right drug at the right time. Specifically, PGX testing provides valuable information on an individual’s precise allelic variations to guide physicians in making informed decisions on drug choice and dosing to avoid adverse events and maximize efficacy. The study goal was to identify which current space pharmacy drugs could be evaluated using PGX testing and to understand the potential impact on the health and wellness of the astronaut population. Additionally, we sought to evaluate clinically available FDA-approved PGX testing solutions to better understand its applicability. METHODS: A complete list of drugs on the ISS was analyzed for risk and likelihood of drug failure and PGX actionability. This analysis encompassed both astronauts’ personal medications, including supplements and over the counter drugs (n=151) contained in the ISS medical accessory kit (IMAK), and ISS MedKit formulary medications (n=95). Duplicate medications and different formulations were removed, which resulted in a total of 157 drugs used in the subsequent analysis. A 5x5 risk assessment table was produced by examining the likelihood of drug failure compared to the consequence of drug failure (LxC). Likelihood of individual drug failure was defined by whether existing processes are sufficient to prevent ineffective treatment or impactful side effect events, as ranked from 1 (very low, can easily be prevented) to 5 (very high, cannot be prevented) during a Mars mission. In contrast, the consequence of drug failure was defined by impact to safety, schedule, cost, or technical criteria and ranked from 1 (very low) to 5 (very high). An assessment of PGX reference laboratories is currently underway to evaluate sample requirements, benefit analysis (cost vs. utility of allele variant analysis), relevance to inflight medication usage, quality of reporting in enabling clinical application, and ease of integration into electronic medical records. RESULTS: Risk assessments (LxC 5x5 table) indicated 128 medications were in the green zone where risk is acceptable, with the remaining 29 of the medications in the yellow or red zone driven predominantly due to drug failure or safety concerns. We found that current PGX testing results could impact 21% of the total medications in the ISS MedKit and IMAK; of these, 9 medications currently have direct clinically actionable guidance available. Results of the clinical PGX solution evaluations as related to these medications will be presented. CONCLUSION: PGX testing has demonstrated clear benefits in terrestrial medicine and clinical environments for the selection of proper medications, avoiding adverse drug reactions, and maximizing drug efficacy. We propose that similar benefits would be bestowed on the astronaut and commercial spaceflight passenger population by performing preemptive preflight PGX testing to reduce risk of mission failure due to ineffective or toxic medications, improve drug efficacy, and further open the door to countermeasure research. For example, PGX results could allow tailoring of specific medications at optimal doses more precisely to each individual astronaut, particularly in areas of space motion sickness, sleep aids, and analgesics. An additional benefit is that PGX results could provide information for better planning of the components of a space pharmacy for deep space missions to be more effective and efficient in the utilization of limited pharmaceutical resources. Finally, while PGX testing of the astronaut corps is not currently conducted, this approach could provide immediate impact in support of mission success by reducing risks, optimizing astronaut performance, and providing valuable insights into long-term astronaut health. Such advancements in clinical decision making are important next steps in building dynamic individual risk profiles for astronauts, increasing selection of the best treatment choice, and providing tailored countermeasures for individual crewmembers.

Pharmacogenomics↗

NASA NTRS2021

Machine Learning Based Path Planning for Improved Rover Navigation

Enhanced AutoNav (ENav), the baseline surface navigation software for NASA’s Perseverance rover, sorts a list of candidate paths for the rover to traverse, then uses the Approximate Clearance Evaluation (ACE) algorithm to evaluate whether the most highly ranked paths are safe. ACE is crucial for maintaining the safety of the rover, but is computationally expensive. If the most promising candidates in the list of paths are all found to be infeasible, ENav must continue to search the list and run time-consuming ACE evaluations until a feasible path is found. In this paper, we present two heuristics that, given a terrain heightmap around the rover, produce cost estimates that more effectively rank the candidate paths before ACE evaluation. The first heuristic uses Sobel operators and convolution to incorporate the cost of traversing high-gradient terrain. The second heuristic uses a machine learning (ML) model to predict areas that will be deemed untraversable by ACE. We used physics simulations to collect training data for the ML model and to run Monte Carlo trials to quantify navigation performance across a variety of terrains with various slopes and rock distributions. Compared to ENav's baseline performance, integrating the heuristics can lead to a significant reduction in ACE evaluations and average computation time per planning cycle, increase path efficiency, and maintain or improve the rate of successful traverses. This strategy of targeting specific bottlenecks with ML while maintaining the original ACE safety checks provides an example of how ML can be infused into planetary science missions and other safety-critical software.

Yue, Yisong↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Combustion and Emissions Analysis of Alternatives

NASA’s Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate requested an analysis of alternatives (AoA) study on the following three competencies in 2020: subsonic transport acoustics, combustion and emissions, and aircraft icing. This presentation will address details specific to the combustion and emissions analysis of alternatives study. The basic process used for during the AoA study in shown in Figure 1. Figure 1. Flow chart of the Analysis of Alternative process used in this study. The combustion study team was multidisciplinary, including a wide range perspectives and areas of expertise. Inputs were collected from within NASA and a wide range of external stakeholders, including aircraft engine companies, aircraft airframe companies and other government agencies. Eight future realities for aviation were developed in preparation for the applying the AoA process, such as future realities with increased or decrease airline traffic, greater emissions stringency, or a revolution in energy infrastructure (such as hydrogen usage). Based on the inputs collected, over seventy technical elements applicable to combustion and emissions research were developed. To rank the importance of these technical elements for each future reality, a set of evaluation criterion were developed that can be generally characterized as environmental impacts, technologies enabling reduced fuel burn, and elements requiring significant NASA involvement or having significant industry pull. Using in-house codes to apply the TOPSIS (Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution) methodology, as well performing consistency checks and other analysis by the study team, a ranked set of technical elements was generated. Several research needs were identified and analyzed to determine the highest priorities for potential research by NASA in the combustion and emissions area. Results from the study will be presented.

combustion↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Development of the Suited Injury Modes and Effects Analysis for Identification of Top Injury Risks in Lunar Missions and Training

A new Exploration Extravehicular Activity Services (xEVAS) suit is being designed to replace the current Extravehicular Mobility Unit (EMU) for the National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s (NASA’s) Artemis program to return astronauts to the lunar surface. This new suit will allow for increased range of motion compared to the current EMU and Apollo era suits and additional features will enhance the health and safety of exploration. With the design of lunar missions and the xEVAS suit progressing, it is important to consider possible injuries and injury mechanisms that could occur in the suit. To address these concerns, the suited Injury Modes and Effects Analysis (IMEA) was developed to outline suited injury scenarios and rank them based on risk score. The IMEA documents possible scenarios and underlying mechanisms of injury. History has shown that more suit injuries occur during training than in flight; therefore, currently planned training events to prepare for lunar missions and tasks during lunar surface EVAs were considered. Each scenario is ranked with likelihood and consequence scorings based on our current understanding of suit and application of Artemis design reference missions. The scoring allowed identification of the high-risk cases that will drive further work in suited injury. Mechanisms of injury, injury outcomes, and mitigation strategies are evaluated within each scenario. The Suited Injury Summit was held on January 5, 2022, to vet the IMEA with external experts. This was an all-day virtual meeting with the suited injury team; ergonomists; suit engineers; safety engineers; the flight operations directorate; flight doctors; astronauts; astronaut strength, conditioning, and rehabilitation specialists (ASCRS); and external subject matter experts (SMEs). External SMEs consisted of surgeons with varying specialties. The intent of this meeting was to walk through the top injury risks identified in the analysis, identify any gaps that were not captured, and discuss mitigations. With participation from all groups, countless lessons-learned came from the Summit meeting. Using these, the top 10 risks have been identified: neutral buoyancy laboratory training, hand/glove injuries, poor suit fit, field training, specific EVA tasks/design of task, boots/ankle injuries, falls from heights, background radiation, repetitive contact, and ambulation/longdistance ambulation. Mitigation steps have also been determined for each of the top risks. The IMEA and documentation of top risks is a living document. Yearly meetings are planned to update the analysis and reevaluate top risks and mitigations. The IMEA is being used to drive work in suited injury, and this work will continue to evolve with IMEA and lunar mission updates.

Teresa Reiber↗

NASA NTRS2022

Galaxy Correlation Function and Local Density from Photometric Redshifts Using the Stochastic Order Redshift Technique (SORT)

The stochastic order redshift technique (SORT) is a simple, efficient, and robust method to improve cosmological redshift measurements. The method relies upon having a small (∼10 per cent) reference sample of high-quality redshifts. Within pencil- beam-like sub-volumes surrounding each galaxy, we use the precise dN/dz distribution of the reference sample to recover new redshifts and assign them one-to-one to galaxies such that the original rank order of redshifts is preserved. Preserving the rank order is motivated by the fact that random variables drawn from Gaussian probability density functions with different means but equal standard deviations satisfy stochastic ordering. This process is repeated for sub-volumes surrounding each galaxy in the survey. This results in every galaxy being assigned multiple ‘recovered’ redshifts from which a new redshift estimate is determined. An earlier paper applied SORT to a mock Sloan Digital Sky Survey at z 0.2 and accurately recovered the two-point correlation function (2PCF) on scales > 4 h−1Mpc. In this paper, we test the performance of SORT in surveys spanning the redshift range 0.75 < z < 2.25. We used two mock surveys extracted from the Small MultiDark–Planck and Bolshoi–Planck N-body simulations with dark matter haloes that were populated by the Santa Cruz semi-analytic model. We find that SORT overall improves redshift estimates, accurately recovers the redshift-space 2PCF ξ (s) on scales > 2.5 h−1Mpc, and provides improved local density estimates in regions of average or higher density, which may allow for improved understanding of how galaxy properties relate to their environments.

James Kakos↗

NASA NTRS2022

Continuum Covariance Propagation for Understanding Variance Loss in Advective Systems

Motivated by the spurious variance loss encountered during covariance propagation in atmospheric and other large-scale data assimilation systems, we consider the problem for state dynamics governed by the continuity and related hyperbolic partial differential equations. This loss of variance has been attributed to reduced-rank representations of the covariance matrix, as in ensemble methods for example, or else to the use of dissipative numerical methods. Through a combination of analytical work and numerical experiments, we demonstrate that significant variance loss, as well as gain, typically occurs during covariance propagation, even at full rank. The cause of this unusual behavior is a discontinuous change in the continuum covariance dynamics as correlation lengths become small, for instance in the vicinity of sharp gradients in the velocity field. This discontinuity in the covariance dynamics arises from hyperbolicity: the diagonal of the kernel of the covariance operator is a characteristic surface for advective dynamics. Our numerical experiments demonstrate that standard numerical methods for evolving the state are not adequate for propagating the covariance, because16they do not capture the discontinuity in the continuum covariance dynamics as correlations lengths tend to zero. Our analytical and numerical results show that this leads to significant, spurious variance loss in certain regions, and gain in others. The results suggest that developing local covariance propagation methods designed specifically to capture covariance evolution near the diagonal may prove a useful alternative to current methods of covariance propagation.

covariance propagation↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Evaluation of the NASA Artemis Regions of Interest for ISRU Water Mine Potential

The NASA Artemis Campaign has a stated goal to return to the Moon to maintain a sustainable presence; In-Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU) is a key part of sustainability. The regions of interest identified for the Artemis campaign are at Lunar the South Pole where water ice, a valuable resource for ISRU, has been identified. As such, a preliminary evaluation of the ISRU ice mining potential has been performed for of these regions of interest. A set of ground rules for this evaluation were developed to align with current assumptions for customer needs, hardware capabilities, an initially limited infrastructure, and lunar environments/terrain. These ground rules, and the evaluation of six regions of interest, are presented here. The site selections (ISRU and customer assets) and their associated traverses are notional and were intended only to provide a broad preliminary evaluation of the water ISRU potential of the regions. Evaluation of these regions are subject to change as decisions regarding utilization are made. Water ISRU is possible at all regions, though the degree to which each criterion are met is variable. The two regions near Shackleton ranked highest in this evaluation, while the de Gerlache region presented the most difficulties meeting the current criteria. The regions were not explicitly ranked due to the nuances associated with the high number of variables but evaluation summaries of each are presented. It should also be noted that all ISRU ‘mine’ sites in this analysis focused on smaller (few kilometer) size permanently shadowed regions (PSRs). This was necessary to meet proximity requirements between these PSRs and the highly illuminated regions needed for customers and ISRU processing. The areas identified in this study are meant to focus exploration and reconnaissance efforts needed to better evaluate the ISRU potential.

In-situ resource utilization↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Evaluation of the NASA Artemis Regions of Interest for ISRU Water Mine Potential

In-situ resource utilization↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Development of the Suited Injury Modes and Effects Analysis for Identification of Top Injury Risks in Lunar Missions and Training

A new Exploration Extravehicular Activity Suit (xEVAS) is being designed to replace the current Extravehicular Mobility Unit (EMU) for the National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s (NASA’s) Artemis program to return astronauts to the lunar surface. This new suit will allow for increased range of motion compared the current EMU and Apollo era suits and will have additional features that will enhance the health and safety of exploration. With the design of lunar missions and the xEVAS progressing, it is important to consider possible injuries and injury mechanisms that could occur in the suit. To address these concerns, the suited Injury Modes and Effects Analysis (IMEA) was developed to outline suited injury scenarios and rank them based on risk score. The IMEA documents possible scenarios and underlying mechanisms of injury while wearing an extravehicular activity (EVA) suit. Tasks during lunar surface EVA as well as training events to prepare for lunar missions were considered as history has shown that more suit injuries occur during training than in flight. Each scenario is ranked with a consequence and likelihood scoring based on our current understanding of the suit and Artemis design reference missions to identify high-risk cases that will drive further work in suited injury. Injuries, mechanisms of injury, and mitigation strategies are evaluated within each scenario. The Suited Injury Summit was held on January 5, 2022, to vet the IMEA with external experts. This was an all-day virtual meeting with the suited injury team, ergonomists, suit engineers, safety engineers, the flight operations directorate, flight doctors, astronauts, astronaut strength, conditioning, and rehabilitation specialists (ASCRS), and external subject matter experts (SMEs). External SMEs consisted of surgeons with varying specialties. The intent of this meeting was to walk through the top injury risks identified in the analysis, identify any gaps that were not captured, and discuss mitigations. With participation from all groups, countless lessons-learned came from the Summit meeting. Using the lessons-learned and discussion from the Summit, the top 10 risks have been identified: neutral buoyancy laboratory training, hand/glove injuries, poor suit fit, field training, specific EVA tasks/design of task, boots/ankle injuries, falls from heights, background radiation, repetitive contact, and ambulation/long-distance ambulation. Mitigation steps have also been determined for each of the top risks. The IMEA and documentation of top risks is a living document. Yearly meetings are planned to update the analysis and reevaluate top risks and mitigations. The IMEA is being used to drive work in suited injury, and this work will continue to evolve with IMEA and lunar mission updates.

Teresa Reiber↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Selection of Next Priority IMPACT Medical Conditions Based on Available Terrestrial and Spaceflight Data

BACKGROUND: As the era of exploration class missions begins, identification of medical conditions that may occur and require management becomes essential for the modeling of medical risk. To this end, NASA has developed IMPACT (Informing Mission Planning via Analysis of Complex Tradespaces), a suite of tools to assist in assessment of medical risk analysis. It has incorporated an initial list of the 120 conditions of highest concern, labeled the IMPACT condition list 1.0 (ICL 1.0). This abstract describes a method for prioritizing the 92 conditions included on the Proposed Future Conditions List (PFCL) for inclusion in future iterations of the ICL. OVERVIEW: To construct the Prioritized Proposed Future Conditions List (P-PFCL), each condition on the PFCL was scored as “low,” “medium,” or “high” on each of four variables: incidence, likelihood of significant task impairment, diagnostic and treatment complexity, and treatment futility. Qualitative assessment using clinical judgement was utilized to score complexity, futility, and likelihood of impairment. Incidence was assessed quantitatively using spaceflight data and/or analog populations where available then assigned a score using established cutoffs. Logarithmic numerical values were assigned to each category label. A Prioritization Score was generated for each condition by taking the product of incidence and likelihood of task impairment (risk) divided by the product of complexity and futility (difficulty of care), with higher values corresponding to higher priority for future inclusion in the ICL. DISCUSSION: The described methods allow for the generation of a ranked P-PFCL to act as a decision support tool for selection of the next generation of modeled medical conditions. Some of the conditions ranked highly on the P-PFCL include EVA-related upper and lower extremity sprain/strain, iron deficiency, delirium, and hypertension, among others. While this effort does not attempt to quantify the absolute risk associated with each condition, it does attempt to semi-quantitatively estimate the risk of each condition relative to the other possible conditions. This tool in concert with subject matter expert opinion could optimize the future use of limited resources thereby producing a more accurate medical risk model, which will be essential to the upcoming exploration class missions.

Michael Pohlen↗