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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Sensitivity Analysis Comparisons on Geologic Case Studies: An International Collaboration

Over the past four years, an informal working group has developed to investigate existing sensitivity analysis methods, examine new methods, and identify best practices. The focus is on the use of sensitivity analysis in case studies involving geologic disposal of spent nuclear fuel or nuclear waste. To examine ideas and have applicable test cases for comparison purposes, we have developed multiple case studies. Four of these case studies are presented in this report: the GRS clay case, the SNL shale case, the Dessel case, and the IBRAE groundwater case. We present the different sensitivity analysis methods investigated by various groups, the results obtained by different groups and different implementations, and summarize our findings.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2022

(U) Calculating First-Order Sensitivities to Material Density and Composition in Fixed-Source Problems Using the MCNP6 Perturbation Capability

The Taylor series (differential operator) perturbation method, as implemented in the PERT capability in MCNP6 (Ref. 1), can be used for first-order sensitivity analyses in fixed-source problems.2 Sensitivities of a response with respect to material and nuclide densities can be used for efficient first-order uncertainty quantification. This report discusses how to compute sensitivities of material densities and compositions in order to propagate uncertainties using the standard uncertainty propagation formula.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Uncertainty Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis for Simulation of Hostile Blast Events [Slides]

A mesh convergence study shows that shock arrival times converge for basic flow shots. Sensitivity study reveals a surprisingly high sensitivity to the placement of the HE package. Bayesian inference tools used on the experimental datasets suggest this is a real effect. Sensitivity analysis of ambient conditions such as temperature and pressure reveal minimal effect. Porting of pressure data from QUINOA simulations to perform structural analysis on the aeroshell geometry was successful, and shows a strong dependence of payload response to the angle of attack.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Surface Acoustic Wave Sensors for Refrigerant Leak Detection: Compact, Inexpensive, Selective and Sensitive Sensors

Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), in collaboration with Parker and Hannifin, is developing a compact, inexpensive, and highly sensitive and selective surface acoustic wave sensor coated with fluorophillic sorbent for detecting fluorocarbon leaks from HVAC systems. Having a highly effective sorbent sensitive to fluorocarbon refrigerant vapors provides a means to develop a sensing device for leak detection. Surface acoustic wave (SAW) sensors with a gas sensing film deposited between the delay lines or on the interdigital transducer have been used to detect gas and vapor molecules in harsh environments with high sensitivity. As part of this project, PNNL screened several sorbent materials that are shown to be selective towards fluorocarbon refrigerant (R32) molecule. The identified sorbent materials were synthesized, characterized, and tested towards R32 using various spectroscopic technique. Next, the sorbent material was coated on a SAW sensor as a thin film using vapor deposition and drop coating methods. The coated thin film was further characterized and tested towards the detection of pure R32 and R32 in ambient air at room temperature to demonstrate the SAW response towards R32 in presence of other competing gases and vapors in air.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Sensitivity Effects of Hollow Glass Micro-Balloon Doping on RDX-Based Explosives

Sensitivity to initiation is an important characteristic of high explosives. Many chemical and physical properties are fine-tuned to deliver an energetic material that behaves according to the user’s specifications exactly. In some cases, it is advantageous to study the effects that non energetic additives have on the performance of an explosive material. Following on the promising results obtained in other experiments, a study is conducted on the effects of hollow glass micro-balloons (bubbles, spheres), or HGMB, on a material’s sensitivity. Threshold test data is compared between several formulations of explosives. The control formulation is an RDX-based explosive with a non-energetic binder, and the test formulations are identical in composition, but with the addition of HGMB, up to 6% by volume. Safety testing of the new HGMB-doped explosive formulations is conducted to ensure they can be produced and handled safely prior to intentional detonation. This experiment utilizes an attenuation card of varying thicknesses between the initiator and the test article to attenuate the shock imparted, and a witness plate is analyzed for each test article to determine a GO or NO GO result. The data collected and the conclusions of this study affect how additives like HGMB are utilized in future explosive sensitivity threshold experiments.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Deterministic-Monte Carlo Hybrid Methods for Eigenvalue Sensitivity Coefficient Calculations [Slides]

Hybrid method was developed based on a need to generate accurate sensitivities for specified systems with CLUTCH. This new method provides improved sensitivities with HMF-028-001, specifically with 238 U in the large reflector region. With the importance of each voxel predetermined with the adjoint flux, the hybrid method is able to generate more accurate sensitivities. More testing is needed for other types of systems and materials (i.e., thermal and intermediate energy ranges and different moderators and reflectors). Initial results are very promising and continual development of the new hybrid method is currently in progress.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Impact of Increased Monte Carlo Parameters on Sensitivity Calculations with SCALE [Slides]

For both models and tests, NPG and NSK parameters have only small effects on calculated sensitivity coefficients. Outside of NPG=100, only differences in CFP affected sensitivity coefficient values. Fission reactions ( 235 U) require more NPG values than scattering ( 238 U) reactions – more particles are needed to locate fission sources in the model more accurately. This work confirms the previous results with the IFP method where the CFP parameter has the greatest impact on calculated sensitivity coefficients. While immediate work focuses on fast systems, other model specifications may require a different set of MC parameters.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Comparison of the sensitivity of 236 U measurements in environmental samples by MC-ICP-MS and ATONA based high precision U TIMS measurements

The ATONA project is focused upon exploring the improvements in uranium isotope ratio measurements by thermal ionization mass spectrometry (TIMS) provided by a new, capacitor-based, amplifier technology. These “ATONA” Faraday amplifiers (Isotopx Ltd, UK) promise accurate, low-noise measurements of very small signals (< 1 femto-amp) in a traditional Faraday cup, which was only previously possible using an ion counter. This report outlines a series of experiments that were performed to assess the performance of the system in samples that test our rapid analysis procedures, and then compare the results against other mass spectrometry techniques currently available for environmental analyses. The following major goals were achieved: (1) illustrated the importance of 236 U measurements for the screening and analysis of environmental samples; (2) improved sensitivity for 236 U, and then identified 236 U in the 4350B standard at ultra-trace levels (3) Provided comparison of the 236 U sensitivity to multi-collector inductively coupled mass spectrometry techniques (4) Illustrated high TRL for the ATONA based measurement technique. This completes the reporting requirements for task 4 in the project LCP and highlights the utility of the system to make highly sensitive 236 U measurements in programmatically relevant sample matrices and at relevant uranium concentrations.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis Methods and Applications in the GDSA Framework (FY2025)

The Spent Fuel and Waste Science and Technology Campaign (SFWST) of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Nuclear Energy (NE) is conducting research and development on geologic disposal of spent nuclear fuel (SNF) and high-level nuclear waste (HLW). Two priorities for SFWST are design concept development and disposal system modeling. These priorities are directly addressed in the Geologic Disposal Safety Assessment (GDSA) control account, which is charged with developing a geologic repository system modeling and analysis capability, and the associated software, GDSA Framework, for evaluating disposal system performance for nuclear waste in geologic media. This report describes specific activities in the Fiscal Year (FY) 2025 associated with the GDSA Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis Methods work package. This report fulfills the GDSA Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis Methods work package (SF-25SN01030407) level 3 milestone, Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis Methods and Applications in GDSA Framework (FY2025) (M3SF-25SN010304072). This work was closely coordinated with the other Sandia National Laboratory GDSA work packages: the GDSA Framework Development work package (SF-25SN01030408), the GDSA Repository Systems Analysis work package (SF-25SN01030409), and the GDSA PFLOTRAN Development work package (SF-25SN01030410). This report builds on developments reported in previous GDSA Framework milestones, particularly M3SF-24SN010304072.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2022

An EvoDevo Study of Salmonid Visual Opsin Dynamics and Photopigment Spectral Sensitivity

Salmonids are ideal models as many species follow a distinct developmental program from demersal eggs and a large yolk sac to hatching at an advanced developmental stage. Further, these economically important teleosts inhabit both marine- and freshwaters and experience diverse light environments during their life histories. At a genome level, salmonids have undergone a salmonid-specific fourth whole genome duplication event (Ss4R) compared to other teleosts that are already more genetically diverse compared to many non-teleost vertebrates. Thus, salmonids display phenotypically plastic visual systems that appear to be closely related to their anadromous migration patterns. This is most likely due to a complex interplay between their larger, more gene-rich genomes and broad spectrally enriched habitats; however, the molecular basis and functional consequences for such diversity is not fully understood. This study used advances in genome sequencing to identify the repertoire and genome organization of visual opsin genes (those primarily expressed in retinal photoreceptors) from six different salmonids [Atlantic salmon ( Salmo salar ), brown trout ( Salmo trutta ), Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytcha ), coho salmon ( Oncorhynchus kisutch ), rainbow trout ( Oncorhynchus mykiss ), and sockeye salmon ( Oncorhynchus nerka )] compared to the northern pike ( Esox lucius ), a closely related non-salmonid species. Results identified multiple orthologues for all five visual opsin classes, except for presence of a single short-wavelength-sensitive-2 opsin gene. Several visual opsin genes were not retained after the Ss4R duplication event, which is consistent with the concept of salmonid rediploidization. Developmentally, transcriptomic analyzes of Atlantic salmon revealed differential expression within each opsin class, with two of the long-wavelength-sensitive opsins not being expressed before first feeding. Also, early opsin expression in the retina was located centrally, expanding dorsally and ventrally as eye development progressed, with rod opsin being the dominant visual opsin post-hatching. Modeling by spectral tuning analysis and atomistic molecular simulation, predicted the greatest variation in the spectral peak of absorbance to be within the Rh2 class, with a ∼40 nm difference in λ max values between the four medium-wavelength-sensitive photopigments. Overall, it appears that opsin duplication and expression, and their respective spectral tuning profiles, evolved to maximize specialist color vision throughout an anadromous lifecycle, with some visual opsin genes being lost to tailor marine-based vision.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Sensitive Electrochemical Cholinesterase-Inhibiting Biosensor for Organophosphorus Pesticides Based on Ti 3 C 2 TX MXene Quantum Dots

Organophosphorus pesticides (OPs) pose significant environmental and health risks due to their widespread use and toxicity, primarily by inhibiting acetylcholinesterase. Traditional detection methods are often slow and costly, highlighting the urgent need for advanced, sensitive, and accessible technologies. This study developed a highly sensitive electrochemical cholinesterase-inhibiting biosensor for OP pesticides, utilizing Ti 3 C 2 T x MXene Quantum Dots (MQDs), which was synthesized via a hydrothermal method. The biosensor’s performance was characterized using electrochemical impedance spectroscopy, differential pulse voltammetry (DPV), and cyclic voltammetry. DPV proved to be the optimal technique, exhibiting an ultralow detection limit of 1 × 10 −17 M and a wide linear range (10 −14 –10 −8 M) for chlorpyrifos (a model OP) with an estimated inhibition constant of 62 nM. The biosensor demonstrated high selectivity for OPs (chlorpyrifos, acephate, glyphosate) over a non-target pyrethroid (permethrin), confirmed by distinct electrochemical signatures and compared to in vitro cholinergic activity assays in bean beetle homogenates. The enhanced performance is attributed to the high surface-to-volume ratio, quantum confinement effects, and superior conductivity of the MQDs, as well as the robust enzyme immobilization facilitated by glutaraldehyde cross-linking and a chitosan matrix. This work presents a promising platform for rapid, sensitive, and selective detection of OP pesticides, with potential applications in environmental monitoring and public health protection.

Chemistry↗
DOE OSTI2021

Sensitivity-Informed Bayesian Inference for Home PLC Network Models with Unknown Parameters

Bayesian inference is used to calibrate a bottom-up home PLC network model with unknown loads and wires at frequencies up to 30 MHz. A network topology with over 50 parameters is calibrated using global sensitivity analysis and transitional Markov Chain Monte Carlo (TMCMC). The sensitivity-informed Bayesian inference computes Sobol indices for each network parameter and applies TMCMC to calibrate the most sensitive parameters for a given network topology. A greedy random search with TMCMC is used to refine the discrete random variables of the network. This results in a model that can accurately compute the transfer function despite noisy training data and a high dimensional parameter space. The model is able to infer some parameters of the network used to produce the training data, and accurately computes the transfer function under extrapolative scenarios.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Evidence for a cytokine-sensitive network of iron-associated genes that protects pancreatic islets against ferroptosis

Background/Objectives: The micronutrient iron is closely connected to inflammation and is among the complex factors contributing to beta-cell failure in diabetes. High levels of dietary iron increase the risk of developing type 2 diabetes, and excessive iron uptake by beta-cells can cause oxidative stress and inhibit function. Elevated levels of proinflammatory cytokines in obese individuals, such as interleukin (IL)-1beta and IL-6, increase the risk of developing type 2 diabetes, and there is evidence that these low levels of circulating cytokines can lead to islet dysfunction. Methods: In this study, gene microarray and other data were analyzed for expression differences in islets treated for 48 h with 10 pg/mL IL-1beta + 20 pg/mL IL-6 as a model of low-grade inflammation versus untreated. Results: Three iron-associated genes were among the most cytokine-sensitive in the mouse genome: Hamp, Steap4, and Lcn2. These proteins are all involved with increasing/retaining cellular iron. We hypothesized that increased cellular iron would lead to increased susceptibility to ferroptosis. Surprisingly, 24 h pre-exposure to low-grade inflammation, which upregulates this iron-gene network, prevented subsequent erastin-induced ferroptosis. We also found that Steap4 overexpression reduced islet dysfunction caused by high-dose proinflammatory cytokines (10× low-dose), suggesting an overall protective effect. Steap4 overexpression also upregulated Hamp and Lcn2, suggesting Steap4 regulates these cytokine-sensitive iron genes.; in contrast, ferritin and ferroportin gene expression, which are not sensitive to cytokines, were unchanged. Conclusions: These data suggest an inflammation-induced network of genes involved in cellular iron uptake and retention plays a protective role in islets against oxidative stress and ferroptosis.

IL-1β↗
DOE OSTI2020

Bismuth Subcarbonate Decorated Reduced Graphene Oxide Nanocomposite for the Sensitive Stripping Voltammetry Analysis of Pb(II) and Cd(II) in Water

In this paper, bismuth subcarbonate (BiO)2CO3-reduced graphene oxide nanocomposite incorporated in Nafion matrix ((BiO)2CO3-rGO-Nafion) was synthesized and further applied, for the first time, in the sensitive detection of Pb(II) and Cd(II) by square-wave anodic stripping voltammetry (SWASV). The as-synthesized nanocomposites were characterized by energy-dispersive spectroscopy (EDS), Raman spectroscopy, scanning electron microscopy (SEM), Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR), X-ray diffraction (XRD), cyclic voltammetry (CV), and electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS). (BiO)2CO3 composite plays a key role in the improvement of the detection sensitivity, which can form multicomponent alloy with cadmium and lead. Additionally, the unique structure of rGO can enlarge the surface area and provide abundant active sites. Moreover, Nafion incorporation in the nanocomposite can effectively increase the adhesion and mechanical strength of the film, and further improve the preconcetration ability due to the cation-exchange capacity of its abundant sulfonate groups. As expected, the (BiO)2CO3-rGO/Nafion nanocomposite-modified glassy carbon electrode ((BiO)2CO3-rGO-Nafion/GCE) achieved low detection limits of 0.24 μg/L for Pb(II) and 0.16 μg/L for Cd(II), in the linear range of 1.0–60 μg/L, and showed some excellent performance, such as high stability, good selectivity, and sensitivity. Finally, synthetic water samples were prepared and further used to verify the practicability of the (BiO)2CO3-rGO-Nafion/GCE with satisfactory results.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Mu2e Run I Sensitivity Projections for the Neutrinoless Conversion Search in Aluminum

The Mu2e experiment at Fermilab will search for the neutrinoless conversion in the field of an aluminum nucleus. The Mu2e data-taking plan assumes two running periods, Run I and Run II, separated by an approximately two-year-long shutdown. This paper presents an estimate of the expected Mu2e Run I search sensitivity and includes a detailed discussion of the background sources, uncertainties of their prediction, analysis procedures, and the optimization of the experimental sensitivity. The expected Run I discovery sensitivity is , with a total expected background of events. In the absence of a signal, the expected upper limit is at 90% CL. This represents a three order of magnitude improvement over the current experimental limit of at 90% CL set by the SINDRUM II experiment.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Effective radiative forcing of anthropogenic aerosols in E3SMv1: historical changes, causality, decomposition, and parameterization sensitivities

The effective radiative forcing of anthropogenic aerosols (ERF aer ) is an important measure of the anthropogenic aerosol effects simulated by a global climate model. Here we analyze ERF aer simulated by the E3SMv1 atmosphere model using both century-long free-running atmosphere-land simulations and short nudged simulations. We relate the simulated ERF aer to characteristics of the aerosol composition and optical properties, and evaluate the relationships between key aerosol and cloud properties. In terms of historical changes from the year 1870 to 2014, our results show that the global mean anthropogenic aerosol burden and optical depth increase during the simulation period as expected, but the regional averages show large differences in the temporal evolution. The largest regional differences are found in the emission-induced evolution of the burden and optical depth of the sulfate aerosol: a strong decreasing trend is seen in the Northern Hemisphere high-latitude region after around 1970, while a continued increase is simulated in the tropics. Consequently, although the global mean anthropogenic aerosol burden and optical depth increase from 1870 to 2014, the ERF aer magnitude does not increase after around year 1970. The relationships between key aerosol and cloud properties (relative changes between preindustrial and present-day conditions) also show evident changes after 1970, diverging from the linear relationships exhibited for the period from 1870 to 2014. The ERF aer in E3SMv1 is relatively large compared to the recently published multi-model estimates; the primary reason is the large indirect aerosol effect (i.e., through aerosol-cloud interactions). Compared to other models, E3SMv1 features a stronger sensitivity of the cloud droplet effective radius to changes in the cloud droplet number concentration. Large sensitivity is also seen in the liquid cloud optical depth, which is determined by changes in both the effective radius and liquid water path. Aerosol-induced changes in liquid and ice cloud properties in E3SMv1 are found to have a strong correlation, as the evolution of anthropogenic sulfate aerosols affects both the liquid cloud formation and the homogeneous ice nucleation in cirrus clouds. The ERF aer estimates in E3SMv1 for the shortwave and longwave components are sensitive to the parameterization changes in both liquid and ice cloud processes. When the parameterization of ice cloud processes is modified, the top-of-atmosphere forcing changes in the shortwave and longwave components largely offset each other, so the net effect is negligible. This suggests that, to reduce the magnitude of the net ERF aer , it would be more effective to reduce the anthropogenic aerosol effect through liquid or mixed-phase clouds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Environmental sensitivities of shallow-cumulus dilution – Part 2: Vertical wind profile

This second part of a numerical study on shallow-cumulus dilution focuses on the sensitivity of cloud dilution to changes in the vertical wind profile. Insights are obtained through large-eddy simulations of maritime and continental cloud fields. In these simulations, the speed of the initially uniform geostrophic wind and the strength of geostrophic vertical wind shear in the cloud and subcloud layer are varied. Increases in the cloud-layer vertical wind shear (up to 9 ms -1 km -1 ) lead to 40%–50% larger cloud-core dilution rates compared to their respective unsheared counterparts. When the background wind speed, on the other hand, is enhanced by up to 10 ms -1 and subcloud-layer vertical wind shear develops or is initially prescribed, the dilution rate decreases by up to 25%. The sensitivities of the dilution rate are linked to the updraft strength and the properties of the entrained air. Increases in the wind speed or vertical wind shear result in lower vertical velocities across all sets of experiments with stronger reductions in the cloud-layer wind shear simulation (27%–47%). Weaker updrafts are exposed to mixing with the drier surrounding air for a longer time period, allowing more entrainment to occur (i.e., the “core-exposure effect”). However, reduced vertical velocities, in concert with increased cloud-layer turbulence, also assist in widening the humid shell surrounding the cloud cores, leading to entrainment of more humid air (i.e., the “core–shell dilution effect”). In the experiments with cloud-layer vertical wind shear, the core-exposure effect dominates and the cloud-core dilution increases with increasing shear. Conversely, when the wind speed is increased and subcloud-layer vertical wind shear develops or is imposed, the core–shell dilution effect dominates to induce a buffering effect. The sensitivities are generally stronger in the maritime simulations, where weaker sensible heat fluxes lead to narrower, more tilted, and, therefore, more suppressed cumuli when cloud-layer shear is imposed. Moreover, in the experiments with subcloud wind shear, the weaker baseline turbulence in the maritime case allows for a larger turbulence enhancement, resulting in a widening of the transition zones between the cores and their environment, leading to the entrainment of more humid air.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

High sensitivity of simulated fog properties to parameterized aerosol activation in case studies from ParisFog

Aerosols influence fog properties such as visibility and lifetime by affecting fog droplet number concentrations (N d ). Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models often represent aerosol–fog interactions using highly simplified approaches. Incorporating prognostic size-resolved aerosol microphysics from climate models could allow them to simulate N d and aerosol–fog interactions without incurring excessive computational expense. However, microphysics code designed for coarse spatial resolution may struggle with sub-kilometer-scale grid spacings. Here, we test the ability of the UK Met Office Unified Model to simulate aerosol and fog properties during case studies from the ParisFog field campaign in 2011. We examine the sensitivity of fog properties to variations in N d caused by modifications to simulated aerosol activation. Our model, with a 500 m horizontal resolution and interactive aerosol and cloud microphysics, significantly underpredicts N d , although it only slightly underestimates the cloud condensation nuclei concentration. With an updated version of the Abdul-Razzak and Ghan (2000) activation scheme, we produce N d that are more consistent with those predicted by a cloud parcel model under fog-like conditions. We activate droplets only by adiabatic cooling. We incorporate more realistic hygroscopicities for sulfate and organic aerosols and explore the sensitivity of simulated N d to unresolved updrafts. We find that both N d and simulated fog liquid water content are very sensitive to the updated activation scheme but remain less affected by the update to hygroscopicities. Our improvements offer insights into the physical processes regulating N d in stable conditions, potentially laying foundations for improved operational fog forecasts that incorporate interactive aerosol simulations or aerosol climatologies.

Ghosh, Pratapaditya [Carnegie Mellon University, P↗