Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “sensitivity analyses”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 631 records · Page 35

Interplanetary Electric Propulsion Uranus Mission Trades Supporting the Decadal Survey

The Decadal Survey Committee was tasked to develop a comprehensive science and mission strategy for planetary science that updates and extends the National Academies Space Studies Board s current solar system exploration decadal survey. A Uranus orbiter mission has been evaluated as a part of this 2013-2022 Planetary Science Decadal Survey. A comprehensive Uranus orbiter mission design was completed, including a broad search of interplanetary electric propulsion transfer options. The scope of interplanetary trades was limited to electric propulsion concepts, both solar and radioisotope powered. Solar electric propulsion offers significant payloads to Uranus. Inserted mass into the initial science orbit due is highly sensitive to transfer time due to arrival velocities. The recommended baseline trajectory is a 13 year transfer with an Atlas 551, a 1+1 NEXT stage with 15 kW of power using an EEJU trajectory and a 1,000km EGA flyby altitude constraint. This baseline delivers over 2,000kg into the initial science orbit. Interplanetary trajectory trades and sensitivity analyses are presented herein.

Dankanich, John W.↗

Global Burned Area and Biomass Burning Emissions from Small Fires

In several biomes, including croplands, wooded savannas, and tropical forests, many small fires occur each year that are well below the detection limit of the current generation of global burned area products derived from moderate resolution surface reflectance imagery. Although these fires often generate thermal anomalies that can be detected by satellites, their contributions to burned area and carbon fluxes have not been systematically quantified across different regions and continents. Here we developed a preliminary method for combining 1-km thermal anomalies (active fires) and 500 m burned area observations from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) to estimate the influence of these fires. In our approach, we calculated the number of active fires inside and outside of 500 m burn scars derived from reflectance data. We estimated small fire burned area by computing the difference normalized burn ratio (dNBR) for these two sets of active fires and then combining these observations with other information. In a final step, we used the Global Fire Emissions Database version 3 (GFED3) biogeochemical model to estimate the impact of these fires on biomass burning emissions. We found that the spatial distribution of active fires and 500 m burned areas were in close agreement in ecosystems that experience large fires, including savannas across southern Africa and Australia and boreal forests in North America and Eurasia. In other areas, however, we observed many active fires outside of burned area perimeters. Fire radiative power was lower for this class of active fires. Small fires substantially increased burned area in several continental-scale regions, including Equatorial Asia (157%), Central America (143%), and Southeast Asia (90%) during 2001-2010. Globally, accounting for small fires increased total burned area by approximately by 35%, from 345 Mha/yr to 464 Mha/yr. A formal quantification of uncertainties was not possible, but sensitivity analyses of key model parameters caused estimates of global burned area increases from small fires to vary between 24% and 54%. Biomass burning carbon emissions increased by 35% at a global scale when small fires were included in GFED3, from 1.9 Pg C/yr to 2.5 Pg C/yr. The contribution of tropical forest fires to year-to-year variability in carbon fluxes increased because small fires amplified emissions from Central America, South America and Southeast Asia-regions where drought stress and burned area varied considerably from year to year in response to El Nino-Southern Oscillation and other climate modes.

Randerson, J. T.↗

Uncertainty Quantification and Certification Prediction of Low-Boom Supersonic Aircraft Configurations

The primary objective of this work was to develop and demonstrate a process for accurate and efficient uncertainty quantification and certification prediction of low-boom, supersonic, transport aircraft. High-fidelity computational fluid dynamics models of multiple low-boom configurations were investigated including the Lockheed Martin SEEB-ALR body of revolution, the NASA 69 Delta Wing, and the Lockheed Martin 1021-01 configuration. A nonintrusive polynomial chaos surrogate modeling approach was used for reduced computational cost of propagating mixed, inherent (aleatory) and model-form (epistemic) uncertainty from both the computation fluid dynamics model and the near-field to ground level propagation model. A methodology has also been introduced to quantify the plausibility of a design to pass a certification under uncertainty. Results of this study include the analysis of each of the three configurations of interest under inviscid and fully turbulent flow assumptions. A comparison of the uncertainty outputs and sensitivity analyses between the configurations is also given. The results of this study illustrate the flexibility and robustness of the developed framework as a tool for uncertainty quantification and certification prediction of low-boom, supersonic aircraft.

West, Thomas K., IV↗

Electron Backstreaming Determination for Ion Thrusters

Electron backstreaming in ion thrusters is caused by the random flux of beam electrons past a potential barrier established by the accel grid. A technique that integrates this flux over the radial extent of the barrier reveals important aspects of electron backstreaming phenomena for individual beamlets, across the thruster beam, and throughout thruster life. For individual beamlets it was found that over 99% of the electron backstreaming occurs in a small annulus at the center of the beamlet that is less than 20% the area of the beamlet at the potential barrier established by the accel grid. For the thruster beam it was found that over 99% of the backstreaming current occurs inside of r = 6 cm for the over 28 cm diameter NSTAR grid. Initial validation against ELT data shows that the technique provides the correct behavior and magnitude of electron backstreaming limit, V(sub ebs). From the sensitivity analyses it is apparent that accel grid chamfering may be the dominant mechanism contributing to the sharp rise in the absolute value of V(sub ebs) observed in the ELT but does not explain the rise in ion transparency. Grid gap change also contributes to the absolute value of V(sub ebs) rise and large rises in ion transparency with thruster life for the center gridlet. Screen grid erosion contributes generally to rises in the absolute value of V(sub ebs) and ion transparency, but for the assumptions used herein, it appears to not have as much of an effect chamfering or grid gap change. Overall, it is apparent that accel grid chamfering, grid gap change, and screen grid erosion are important to the increase in electron backstreaming observed during the ELT.

Wirz, Richard E.↗

Navigation and Dispersion Analysis of the First Orion Exploration Mission

This paper seeks to present the Orion EM-1 Linear Covariance Analysis for the DRO mission. The delta V statistics for each maneuver are presented. Included in the memo are several sensitivity analyses: variation in the time of OTC-1 (the first outbound correction maneuver), variation in the accuracy of the trans-Lunar injection, and variation in the length of the optical navigation passes.

Zanetti, Renato↗

Mars Hybrid Propulsion System Trajectory Analysis: Crew Missions - Part I

NASAs Human spaceflight Architecture team is developing a reusable hybrid transportation architecture in which both chemical and electric propulsion systems are used to send crew and cargo to Mars destinations such as Phobos, Deimos, the surface of Mars, and other orbits around Mars. By combining chemical and electrical propulsion into a single space- ship and applying each where it is more effective, the hybrid architecture enables a series of Mars trajectories that are more fuel-efficient than an all chemical architecture without significant increases in flight times. This paper provides the analysis of the interplanetary segments of the three Evolvable Mars Campaign crew missions to Mars using the hybrid transportation architecture. The trajectory analysis provides departure and arrival dates and propellant needs for the three crew missions that are used by the campaign analysis team for campaign build-up and logistics aggregation analysis. Sensitivity analyses were performed to investigate the impact of mass growth, departure window, and propulsion system performance on the hybrid transportation architecture. The results and system analysis from this paper contribute to analyses of the other human spaceflight architecture team tasks and feed into the definition of the Evolvable Mars Campaign.

Chai, Patrick R.↗

Earth Entry Vehicle Design for Sample Return Missions Using M-SAPE

Most mission concepts that return sample material to Earth share one common element: an Earth entry vehicle (EEV). The primary focus of this paper is the examination of EEV design space for relevant sample return missions. Mission requirements for EEV concepts can be divided into three major groups: entry conditions (e.g., velocity and flight path angle), payload (e.g., mass, volume, and g-load limit), and vehicle characteristics (e.g., thermal protection system, structural topology, and landing concepts). The impacts of these requirements on the EEV design have been studied with an integrated system analysis tool, and the results will be discussed in details. In addition, through sensitivities analyses, critical design drivers that have been identified will be reviewed.

Samareh, Jamshid↗

Mid-L/D Lifting Body Entry Demise Analysis

The mid-lift-to-drag ratio (mid-L/D) lifting body is a fully autonomous spacecraft under design at NASA for enabling a rapid return of scientific payloads from the International Space Station (ISS). For contingency planning and risk assessment for the Earth-return trajectory, an entry demise analysis was performed to examine three potential failure scenarios: (1) nominal entry interface conditions with loss of control, (2) controlled entry at maximum flight path angle, and (3) controlled entry at minimum flight path angle. The objectives of the analysis were to predict the spacecraft breakup sequence and timeline, determine debris survival, and calculate the debris dispersion footprint. Sensitivity analysis was also performed to determine the effect of the initial pitch rate on the spacecraft stability and breakup during the entry. This report describes the mid-L/D lifting body and presents the results of the entry demise and sensitivity analyses.

Ling, Lisa↗

The EOSDIS Products Usability for Disaster Response

The focus of the study is to categorize both NRT and standard data products based on applicability to the SDR-defined disaster types. This will identify which datasets from current NASA satellite missions instruments are best suited for disaster response. The distribution metrics of the products that have been used for studying various selected disasters that have occurred over last 5 years will be analyzed that include volume, number of files, number of users, user domains, user country, etc. This data usage analysis will provide information to the data centers staff that can help them develop the functionality and allocate the resources needed for enhanced access and timely availability of the data products that are critical for the time-sensitive analyses.

LANCE↗

Sensitivity Analysis of the Bone Fracture Risk Model

Introduction: The probability of bone fracture during and after spaceflight is quantified to aid in mission planning, to determine required astronaut fitness standards and training requirements and to inform countermeasure research and design. Probability is quantified with a probabilistic modeling approach where distributions of model parameter values, instead of single deterministic values, capture the parameter variability within the astronaut population and fracture predictions are probability distributions with a mean value and an associated uncertainty. Because of this uncertainty, the model in its current state cannot discern an effect of countermeasures on fracture probability, for example between use and non-use of bisphosphonates or between spaceflight exercise performed with the Advanced Resistive Exercise Device (ARED) or on devices prior to installation of ARED on the International Space Station. This is thought to be due to the inability to measure key contributors to bone strength, for example, geometry and volumetric distributions of bone mass, with areal bone mineral density (BMD) measurement techniques. To further the applicability of model, we performed a parameter sensitivity study aimed at identifying those parameter uncertainties that most effect the model forecasts in order to determine what areas of the model needed enhancements for reducing uncertainty. Methods: The bone fracture risk model (BFxRM), originally published in (Nelson et al) is a probabilistic model that can assess the risk of astronaut bone fracture. This is accomplished by utilizing biomechanical models to assess the applied loads; utilizing models of spaceflight BMD loss in at-risk skeletal locations; quantifying bone strength through a relationship between areal BMD and bone failure load; and relating fracture risk index (FRI), the ratio of applied load to bone strength, to fracture probability. There are many factors associated with these calculations including environmental factors, factors associated with the fall event, mass and anthropometric values of the astronaut, BMD characteristics, characteristics of the relationship between BMD and bone strength and bone fracture characteristics. The uncertainty in these factors is captured through the use of parameter distributions and the fracture predictions are probability distributions with a mean value and an associated uncertainty. To determine parameter sensitivity, a correlation coefficient is found between the sample set of each model parameter and the calculated fracture probabilities. Each parameters contribution to the variance is found by squaring the correlation coefficients, dividing by the sum of the squared correlation coefficients, and multiplying by 100. Results: Sensitivity analyses of BFxRM simulations of preflight, 0 days post-flight and 365 days post-flight falls onto the hip revealed a subset of the twelve factors within the model which cause the most variation in the fracture predictions. These factors include the spring constant used in the hip biomechanical model, the midpoint FRI parameter within the equation used to convert FRI to fracture probability and preflight BMD values. Future work: Plans are underway to update the BFxRM by incorporating bone strength information from finite element models (FEM) into the bone strength portion of the BFxRM. Also, FEM bone strength information along with fracture outcome data will be incorporated into the FRI to fracture probability.

mathematical models↗

New York City Panel on Climate Change 2019 Report Chapter 4: Coastal Flooding

Coastal flooding from storm surge is one of the most dangerous and damaging natural hazards that societies face. It was responsible for half of all hurricane related mortalities in the United States from 1963 to 2012, far more than any other factor. Coastal extreme water levels are increasing globally, mainly driven by rises in mean sea level. Sea level rise is also causing rapid increases in the annual number of shallow “nuisance floods” for low-lying neighborhoods. The objectives of this chapter are to review the latest knowledge on New York City flood risk from storms and tides, and to evaluate how climate change will affect this risk between now and the end of the century. Methods used by NPCC (2015) for assessing storm-driven extreme floods are generally repeated here, including the use of the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA, 2013) baseline flood hazards (e.g., the 100-year flood(sup a)) and the methods for adding sea level rise and mapping the resulting hazard. New advancements include an innovative analysis of monthly tidal flooding based on a dynamic model, a broadened set of sea level rise scenarios supplemented with the Antarctic Rapid Ice Melt (ARIM) scenario (see Chapter 3), and sensitivity analyses that show how differing methods would affect our results. Wind is a primary factor for coastal storm surge, and a brief review is given in Appendix 4.A, with the latest scientific knowledge on what drives extreme wind events in the New York City area and how they may change in the future.

Orton, Philip↗

Navigation Using Deep-Space Optical Communication Systems

This work investigates the deep-space spacecraft navigation performance achievable from tracking data types obtained using optical communication systems. These optical navigation types include ranging between spacecraft and a station on Earth and astrometric measurements of angular position. Two mission scenarios are analyzed: an interplanetary cruise trajectory for a Mars lander (Mars 2020), and a science orbit for a Mars orbiter (MAVEN). Various data types are simulated using comprehensive measurement models, tracking schedules, and geometrical constraints. Sensitivity analyses are performed to assess the effect of various contributors to measurement accuracy and navigation performance. For both of the mission scenarios studied, the optical navigation types yield equivalent or improved performance as compared to traditional radiometric observables, though radiometric data types slightly outperform optical observables during tracking data gaps in the science orbit scenario.

McCandless, Sarah Elizabeth↗

NEXT Ion Propulsion System Risk Mitigation Tests in Support of the Double Asteroid Redirection Test Mission

Risk mitigation tests have been conducted by the NASA Glenn Research Center and The Aerospace Corporation in support of the DART Mission. The tests focused on NEXT performance characterizations intended to ensure its operations and characteristics are compatible with the DART mission operations, and to assist in the definition of the propulsion system. Tests were performed at the Aerospace Corporation and they involved: flow sensitivity-analyses, steady-state performance characterizations, and measurements of thruster erosion. The tests also involved defining, demonstrating, verifying, and evaluating the start-up sequences and a beam current regulation algorithm consistent with DART mission requirements. It was found that NEXT thruster operations are compatible with the proposed relaxation of flow control ranges for ignition and for steady-state operation.

Thomas, Robert E.↗

NEXT Ion Propulsion System Risk Mitigation Tests in Support of the Double Asteroid Redirection Test Mission

Risk mitigation tests have been conducted by the NASA Glenn Research Center and The Aerospace Corporation in support of the DART Mission. The tests focused on NEXT performance characterizations intended to ensure its operations and characteristics are compatible with the DART mission operations, and to assist in the definition of the propulsion system. Tests were performed at the Aerospace Corporation and they involved: flow sensitivity-analyses, steady-state performance characterizations, and measurements of thruster erosion. The tests also involved defining, demonstrating, verifying, and evaluating the start-up sequences and a beam current regulation algorithm consistent with DART mission requirements. It was found that NEXT thruster operations are compatible with the proposed relaxation of flow control ranges for ignition and for steady-state operation.

Thomas, Robert E.↗

Impacts of In-Space Assembly as Applied to Human Exploration Architectures

Human missions to Mars present several major challenges that must be overcome, including delivering multiple large mass and volume elements, keeping the crew safe and productive, meeting cost constraints, and ensuring a sustainable campaign. Traditional methods for executing human Mars missions minimize or eliminate in-space assembly (iSA), which provides a narrow range of options for addressing these challenges and limits the types of missions that can be performed. This paper discusses recent work to evaluate how the inclusion of in-space assembly in space mission architectural concepts could provide novel solutions to address these challenges by increasing operational flexibility, robustness, risk reduction, crew health and safety, and sustainability. Several assembly focus areas identified through previous work were developed and evaluated to identify high-potential iSA applications that can have meaningful impacts on the challenges facing Mars missions. Architecture trade options were developed and assessed through sensitivity analyses, resulting in identification of six iSA-based architecture solutions that could be incorporated into Mars mission architectures with moderate levels of assembly. Assembly agent and infrastructure concepts were also developed that would be necessary to enable or facilitate the iSA operations. Several observations developed through the study are presented to inform future human mission architecture and campaign developments.

Jefferies, Sharon A.↗

NEXT Ion Propulsion System Risk Mitigation Tests in Support of the Double Asteroid Redirection Test Mission

Risk mitigation tests have been conducted by the NASA Glenn Research Center and The Aerospace Corporation in support of the DART Mission. The tests focused on NEXT performance characterizations intended to ensure its operations and characteristics are compatible with the DART mission operations, and to assist in the definition of the propulsion system. Tests were performed at the Aerospace Corporation and they involved: flow sensitivity-analyses, steady-state performance characterizations, and measurements of thruster erosion. The tests also involved defining, demonstrating, verifying, and evaluating the start-up sequences and a beam current regulation algorithm consistent with DART mission requirements. It was found that NEXT thruster operations are compatible with the proposed relaxation of flow control ranges for ignition and for steady-state operation.

Thomas, Robert E.↗

Sensitivity of Satellite Ocean Color Data to System Vicarious Calibration of the Long Near Infrared Band

Satellite ocean color missions require accurate (< 1% uncertainties) system vicarious calibrations (SVC) in order to retrieve the relatively small remote sensing reflectance (Rrs, sr-1) from the at-sensor radiance. However, current atmospheric correction and SVC procedures do not include calibration of the “long” near infrared band (NIRL–869nm for MODIS), partially because earlier studies indicated that accuracy in the retrieved Rrsis insensitive to moderate changes in the NIRLvicarious gain (g). However, the sensitivity of ocean color data products to g(NIRL) has not been thoroughly examined. Here, we first derived 10 SVC ‘gain configurations’ (vicarious gains for all visible and NIR bands) for MODIS/Aqua using current operational NASA protocols, each time assuming a different g(869). From these, we derived a suite of ~1.4E6 unique gain configurations with g(869) ranging from 0.85 to 1.2. All MODIS/A data for 25locations within each of five ocean gyres were then processed using each of these gain configurations. Such time series show substantial variability inthe dominant Rrs(547) patterns in response to changes in g(869). Overall gyre mean Rrs(547) generally decreased with increasing g(869), while the standard deviations around those means show gyre-specific minima for 0.97 < g(869) < 1.02. Following these sensitivity analyses, we assess the potential to resolve g(869) using suchtime series, finding g(869) = 1.025 most closely comports with expectations. This approach is broadly applicable to other ocean color sensors, and highlights the importance of rigorous cross-sensor calibration of the NIRLbands, with implications on consistency of merged-sensor datasets.

vicarious calibration↗

Robust Algorithm for Estimating Total Suspended Solids (TSS) in Inland and Nearshore Coastal Waters

One of the challenging tasks in modern aquatic remote sensing is the retrieval of near-surface concentrations of Total Suspended Solids (TSS). This study aims to present a Statistical, inherent Optical property (IOP) -based, and muLti-conditional Inversion proceDure (SOLID) for enhanced retrievals of satellite-derived TSS under a wide range of in-water bio-optical conditions in rivers, lakes, estuaries, and coastal waters. In this study, using a large in situ database (N > 3500), the SOLID model is devised using a three-step procedure: (a) water-type classification of the input remote sensing reflectance (R(sub rs)), (b) retrieval of particulate backscattering (b(sub bp)) in the red or near-infrared (NIR) regions using semi-analytical, machine-learning, and empirical models, and (c) estimation of TSS from b(sub bp) via water-type-specific empirical models. Using an independent subset of our in situ data (N = 2729) with TSS ranging from 0.1 to 2626.8 [g/m (exp 3)], the SOLID model is thoroughly examined and compared against several state-of-the-art algorithms (Miller and McKee, 2004; Nechad et al., 2010; Novoa et al., 2017; Ondrusek et al., 2012; Petus et al., 2010). We show that SOLID outperforms all the other models to varying degrees, i.e., from 10 to > 100%, depending on the statistical attributes (e.g., global versus water-type-specific metrics). For demonstration purposes, the model is implemented for images acquired by the MultiSpectral Imager aboard Sentinel-2A/B over the Chesapeake Bay, San-Francisco-Bay-Delta Estuary, Lake Okeechobee, and Lake Taihu. To enable generating consistent, multimission TSS products, its performance is further extended to, and evaluated for, other missions, such as the Ocean and Land Color Instrument (OLCI), Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS), and Operational Land Imager (OLI). Sensitivity analyses on uncertainties induced by the atmospheric correction indicate that 10% uncertainty in Rrs leads to < 20% uncertainty in TSS retrievals from SOLID. While this study suggests that SOLID has a potential for producing TSS products in global coastal and inland waters, our statistical analysis certainly verifies that there is still a need for improving retrievals across a wide spectrum of particle loads.

Total suspended solids↗