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At least 631 records · Page 35

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DOE OSTI2025

Acoustic Tomography of the Atmosphere: A Large-Eddy Simulation Sensitivity Study

Accurate measurement of atmospheric turbulent fluctuations is critical for understanding environmental dynamics and improving models in applications such as wind energy. Advanced remote sensing technologies are essential for capturing instantaneous velocity and temperature fluctuations. Acoustic tomography (AT) offers a promising approach that utilizes sound travel times between an array of transducers to reconstruct turbulence fields. This study presents a systematic evaluation of the time-dependent stochastic inversion (TDSI) algorithm for AT using synthetic travel-time measurements derived from large-eddy simulation (LES) fields under both neutral and convective atmospheric boundary-layer conditions. Unlike prior work that relied on field observations or idealized fields, the LES framework provides a ground-truth atmospheric state, enabling quantitative assessment of TDSI retrieval reliability, sensitivity to travel-time measurement noise, and dependence on covariance model parameters and temporal data integration. A detailed sensitivity analysis was conducted to determine the best-fit model parameters, identify the tolerance thresholds for parameter mismatch, and establish a maximum spatial resolution. The TDSI algorithm successfully reconstructed large-scale velocity and temperature fluctuations with root mean square errors ( RMSE s) below 0.35 m/s and 0.12 K, respectively. Spectral analysis established a maximum spatial resolution of approximately 1.4 m, and reconstructions remained robust for travel-time measurement uncertainties up to 0.002 s. These findings provide critical insights into the operational limits of TDSI and inform future applications of AT for atmospheric turbulence characterization and system design.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Polynomial Chaos Surrogate Construction for Random Fields with Parametric Uncertainty

Engineering and applied science rely on computational experiments to rigorously study physical systems. The mathematical models used to probe these systems are highly complex, and sampling-intensive studies often require prohibitively many simulations for acceptable accuracy. Surrogate models provide a means of circumventing the high computational expense of sampling such complex models. In particular, polynomial chaos expansions (PCEs) have been successfully used for uncertainty quantification studies of deterministic models where the dominant source of uncertainty is parametric. We discuss an extension to conventional PCE surrogate modeling to enable surrogate construction for stochastic computational models that have intrinsic noise in addition to parametric uncertainty. We develop a PCE surrogate on a joint space of intrinsic and parametric uncertainty, enabled by Rosenblatt transformations, which are evaluated via kernel density estimation of the associated conditional cumulative distributions. Furthermore, we extend the construction to random field data via the Karhunen–Loève expansion. We then take advantage of closed-form solutions for computing PCE Sobol indices to perform a global sensitivity analysis of the model which quantifies the intrinsic noise contribution to the overall model output variance. Additionally, the resulting joint PCE is generative in the sense that it allows generating random realizations at any input parameter setting that are statistically approximately equivalent to realizations from the underlying stochastic model. The method is demonstrated on a chemical catalysis example model and a synthetic example controlled by a parameter that enables a switch from unimodal to bimodal response distributions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2026

Uncertainty quantification for competing failure mechanisms in unidirectionally reinforced carbon–carbon composites

Microstructure-informed finite element models play a key role in the carbon–carbon composite design process. Variability in manufacturing process parameters and experimental limitations introduce model parameter uncertainty. This study quantifies the effect of model parameter uncertainty on transverse tensile fracture behavior and proposes a methodology to predict the failure mode based on competing microscale damage mechanisms. Finite element simulations incorporate fiber–matrix interface debonding with cohesive zones and matrix damage with a smeared crack band approach in a unidirectional carbon–carbon composite. Results from a variance-based global sensitivity analysis identifies interfacial and matrix damage parameters as the primary source of variability in fracture behavior. Sobol’ indices indicate that matrix and cohesive zone strengths contribute 94% of the variance in the effective ultimate stress. A local analysis elucidates the relationship between these constituent strength parameters and failure mode by estimating the probability of cohesive, matrix, and mixed-mode dominated failure. Based on the results for 4000 simulations, 93% exhibit mixed-mode or interfacial dominated failure, which underscores the crucial role of fiber–matrix interface debonding in the transverse tensile failure of carbon–carbon composites. These uncertainty quantification results facilitate more efficient model calibration and provide a framework for microstructure-informed failure predictions in the face of manufacturing-induced uncertainty.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NASA NTRS1992

Integrating aerodynamics and structures in the minimum weight design of a supersonic transport wing

An approach is presented for determining the minimum weight design of aircraft wing models which takes into consideration aerodynamics-structure coupling when calculating both zeroth order information needed for analysis and first order information needed for optimization. When performing sensitivity analysis, coupling is accounted for by using a generalized sensitivity formulation. The results presented show that the aeroelastic effects are calculated properly and noticeably reduce constraint approximation errors. However, for the particular example selected, the error introduced by ignoring aeroelastic effects are not sufficient to significantly affect the convergence of the optimization process. Trade studies are reported that consider different structural materials, internal spar layouts, and panel buckling lengths. For the formulation, model and materials used in this study, an advanced aluminum material produced the lightest design while satisfying the problem constraints. Also, shorter panel buckling lengths resulted in lower weights by permitting smaller panel thicknesses and generally, by unloading the wing skins and loading the spar caps. Finally, straight spars required slightly lower wing weights than angled spars.

Barthelemy, Jean-Francois M.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Effects of radiative heat loss on extinction limits of counterflow premixed ammonia-air flames

The effect of radiative heat loss on counterflow premixed ammonia-air flames has been investigated as a function of equivalence ratio and system pressure. Non-adiabatic counterflow premixed flame simulations incorporating detailed chemistry, transport, and radiative heat transfer in the optically thin limit have been employed to elucidate important underlying physics and extinction characteristics. Similar to methane-air flame systems, non-adiabatic counterflow premixed computations show that the combined effects of positive flame stretch, sub-unity Lewis number, and radiative heat loss lead to the extension of the lean flammability limit for ammonia-air flames, revealing a C-shaped curve near the lean flammability limit that exhibits both radiation-induced and stretch-induced extinction states. Here, the computations compare favorably with the experimentally determined extinction stretch rate values for the stretch-induced extinction states over a wide range of equivalence ratios at different pressures up to 5 atm. A novel feature sensitivity analysis has also been developed to highlight important sensitive reactions for the stretch- and radiation-induced extinction states. Furthermore, the controlling chemistry at the dual-extinction states and at varying pressures are compared and discussed.

10 SYNTHETIC FUELS↗

NASA NTRS1973

Computer-aided communication satellite system analysis and optimization

The capabilities and limitations of the various published computer programs for fixed/broadcast communication satellite system synthesis and optimization are discussed. A satellite Telecommunication analysis and Modeling Program (STAMP) for costing and sensitivity analysis work in application of communication satellites to educational development is given. The modifications made to STAMP include: extension of the six beam capability to eight; addition of generation of multiple beams from a single reflector system with an array of feeds; an improved system costing to reflect the time value of money, growth in earth terminal population with time, and to account for various measures of system reliability; inclusion of a model for scintillation at microwave frequencies in the communication link loss model; and, an updated technological environment.

Stagl, T. W.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Integrated Technology Assessment Center (ITAC) Update

The Integrated Technology Assessment Center (ITAC) has developed a flexible systems analysis framework to identify long-term technology needs, quantify payoffs for technology investments, and assess the progress of ASTP-sponsored technology programs in the hypersonics area. For this, ITAC has assembled an experienced team representing a broad sector of the aerospace community and developed a systematic assessment process complete with supporting tools. Concepts for transportation systems are selected based on relevance to the ASTP and integrated concept models (ICM) of these concepts are developed. Key technologies of interest are identified and projections are made of their characteristics with respect to their impacts on key aspects of the specific concepts of interest. Both the models and technology projections are then fed into the ITAC's probabilistic systems analysis framework in ModelCenter. This framework permits rapid sensitivity analysis, single point design assessment, and a full probabilistic assessment of each concept with respect to both embedded and enhancing technologies. Probabilistic outputs are weighed against metrics of interest to ASTP using a multivariate decision making process to provide inputs for technology prioritization within the ASTP. ITAC program is currently finishing the assessment of a two-stage-to-orbit (TSTO), rocket-based combined cycle (RBCC) concept and a TSTO turbine-based combined cycle (TBCC) concept developed by the team with inputs from NASA. A baseline all rocket TSTO concept is also being developed for comparison. Boeing has recently submitted a performance model for their Flexible Aerospace System Solution for Tomorrow (FASST) concept and the ISAT program will provide inputs for a single-stage-to-orbit (SSTO) TBCC based concept in the near-term. Both of these latter concepts will be analyzed within the ITAC framework over the summer. This paper provides a status update of the ITAC program.

Taylor, J. L.↗

DOE OSTI2024

SHOCK TUBE IGNITION STUDIES OF RENEWABLE DIESEL FUELS FOR MEDIUM AND HEAVY-DUTY TRANSPORTATION

Currently extensive research on alternative fuels is being conducted due to their increasing demand to reduce greenhouse emissions. One renewable fuel studied in this work is dimethyl ether (DME) blended with propane(C3H8) as a potential mixture for heavy-duty engines used in semi-trucks. The blend has the potential to drastically reduce particulate and greenhouse gas emissions compared to a conventional diesel engine operating under similar conditions. To develop the use of mixture, one must conduct detailed conceptual and simulation studies before progressing to detail studies in CFD, engine modifications, and live testing. For simulations, accurate high-fidelity chemical kinetic models are necessary. However, the validity of the chemical kinetic mechanism for operating conditions of a heavy-duty mixing-controlled compression (MCCI) engine was widely unknown until recent work presented here and published. In this work, we studied the ignition of DME and propane blends in a shock tube under MCCI engine conditions. Ignition delay time (IDT) gathered behind the reflected shock for DME-propane mixtures for heavy-duty compression ignition (CI) engine parameters. Testing was conducted for undiluted varieties spanning from temperatures of 700 to 1100 K at pressures ranging from 55 to 84 bar for various blends (100% CH3OCH3, 100% C3H8, 60% CH3OCH3/ 40% C3H8) of DME and propane were combusted in synthetic air (21% O2/ 79% N2). Several experiments were conducted at higher pressures (90-120 bar) to improve the model performance and accuracy. The ignition delay times (IDTs) were compared to recent mechanisms, including Aramco3.0, NUIG, and Dames et al. A common trend among the mechanisms was overpredicted experimental IDTs. Further studies were conducted by a sensitivity analysis using the Dames et al. model, and critical reactions sensitive to IDTs of DME-propane mixture near 60 bar are outlined. Chemical analysis was conducted on the NTC region to explain chemical kinetics which is critical for developing MCCI heavy duty engines.

Mohammed, Zuhayr Pasha↗

NASA NTRS1991

Management of a CFD organization in support of space hardware development

The management strategy of NASA-Marshall's CFD branch in support of space hardware development and code validation implements various elements of total quality management. The strategy encompasses (1) a teaming strategy which focuses on the most pertinent problem, (2) quick-turnaround analysis, (3) the evaluation of retrofittable design options through sensitivity analysis, and (4) coordination between the chief engineer and the hardware contractors. Advanced-technology concepts are being addressed via the definition of technology-development projects whose products are transferable to hardware programs and the integration of research activities with industry, government agencies, and universities, on the basis of the 'consortium' concept.

Schutzenhofer, L. A.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Evaluation of GPS/UTC steering performance

The Global Positioning System (GPS) is required to maintain GPS time to Universal Coordinated Time (UTC) to an accuracy of one microsecond and broadcast to the user the offset between GPS and UTC to an accuracy of 100 nanoseconds (1 sigma). On 25 Jun. 1990, an automatic steering algorithm was implemented to control GPS time to synchronize it with UTC. The description of the steering laws and predicted performance results were presented at the 1989 Precise Time and Time Interval (PTTI) conference, while preliminary performance results were presented at the 1990 PTTI conference. The initial performance was not as predicted, resulting in an in-depth analysis of the observed performance and a more thorough sensitivity analysis. In addition, responses to anomalies were investigated. This paper will describe these analyses and results, and evaluate actual steering performance from Jun. 1990 to Nov. 1991. Although anomalies were observed during the initial phase of steering, recent experience is more in line with expectations.

W. A. Feess↗

DOE OSTI2026

Evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet from 2000–2300 and beyond: model sensitivity and uncertainty analysis using MPAS-Albany Land Ice

We present a description of the Antarctic Ice Sheet model configuration submitted to the ISMIP6-Antarctica-2300 experiment using the MPAS-Albany Land Ice model, along with three new sets of simulations: (1) a set of extended simulations to 2500 for three forced experiments and to 2775 for the control experiment; (2) a sensitivity analysis of our model configuration to parameters controlling basal sliding and sub-shelf melt, and to model structural choices including the choice of the energy and stress balances; and (3) a 72-member ensemble run on graphics processing units (GPUs) and analysis of variance to determine the primary sources of uncertainty in our ice-sheet model projections. Our extended simulations predict rapid retreat beginning after 2300 for SSP1-2.6 forcing and after 2500 for present-day (control) forcing, primarily in the Amundsen Sea Embayment. We find that varying the sub-shelf melt parameter between the 5th to 95th percentile values for a mean-Antarctic calibration target results in an up to ∼ ± 40 % change in sea-level contribution relative to our baseline simulations that used the median value. Using a linear basal sliding law reduces sea-level contribution by 51 %–73 % relative to our baseline nonlinear sliding law with an exponent of 1/5. When using basal sliding law exponents of 1/3 and 1/10, the overall difference from our baseline simulations at 2300 is on the order of 10 %. The Amundsen Sea Embayment region displays a strongly non-linear dependence of mass loss on the sliding law exponent, with no discernible relationship between the sliding law exponent and the mass loss by 2300, while the sectors feeding the Ross and Filchner-Ronne ice shelves exhibit more mass loss with a more-plastic sliding law. Our model fidelity sensitivity experiments reveal a 9 %–31 % increase in sea-level contribution when using a depth-integrated stress balance approximation relative to our three-dimensional solver, while using a fixed-in-time temperature field increases sea-level contribution by 14 %–88 % relative to two thermomechanically coupled configurations. Our 72-member ensemble and analysis of variance show that the uncertainty in long-term projections is dominated by the choice of Earth system model forcing and the presence or absence of hydrofracture forcing, rather than uncertainty in sliding and sub-shelf melt parameters.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1989

Error analysis for semi-analytic displacement derivatives with respect to shape and sizing variables

Sensitivity analysis is fundamental to the solution of structural optimization problems. Consequently, much research has focused on the efficient computation of static displacement derivatives. As originally developed, these methods relied on analytical representations for the derivatives of the structural stiffness matrix (K) with respect to the design variables (b sub i). To extend these methods for use with complex finite element formulations and facilitate their implementation into structural optimization programs using the general finite element method analysis codes, the semi-analytic method was developed. In this method the matrix the derivative of K/the derivative b sub i is approximated by finite difference. Although it is well known that the accuracy of the semi-analytic method is dependent on the finite difference parameter, recent work has suggested that more fundamental inaccuracies exist in the method when used for shape optimization. Another study has argued qualitatively that these errors are related to nonuniform errors in the stiffness matrix derivatives. The accuracy of the semi-analytic method is investigated. A general framework was developed for the error analysis and then it is shown analytically that the errors in the method are entirely accounted for by errors in delta K/delta b sub i. Furthermore, it is demonstrated that acceptable accuracy in the derivatives can be obtained through careful selection of the finite difference parameter.

Fenyes, Peter A.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Uncertainty Analysis for the Miniaturized Laser Heterodyne Radiometer (mini-LHR)

Presented here is a sensitivity analysis for the miniaturized laser heterodyne radiometer (mini-LHR). This passive, ground-based instrument measures carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmospheric column and has been under development at NASA/GSFC since 2009. The goal of this development is to produce a low-cost, easily-deployable instrument that can extend current ground measurement networks in order to (1) validate column satellite observations, (2) provide coverage in regions of limited satellite observations, (3) target regions of interest such as thawing permafrost, and (4) support the continuity of a long-term climate record. In this paper an uncertainty analysis of the instrument performance is presented and compared with results from three sets of field measurements. The signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) and corresponding uncertainty for a single scan are calculated to be 329.4+/-1.3 by deploying error propagation through the equation governing the SNR. Reported is an absorbance noise of 0.0024 for 6 averaged scans of field data, for an instrument precision of approximately 0.2 ppmv for CO2.

carbon dioxide (CO2)↗

NASA NTRS1997

Analysis of myosin heavy chain mRNA expression by RT-PCR

An assay was developed for rapid and sensitive analysis of myosin heavy chain (MHC) mRNA expression in rodent skeletal muscle. Only 2 microg of total RNA were necessary for the simultaneous analysis of relative mRNA expression of six different MHC genes. We designed synthetic DNA fragments as internal standards, which contained the relevant primer sequences for the adult MHC mRNAs type I, IIa, IIx, IIb as well as the embryonic and neonatal MHC mRNAs. A known amount of the synthetic fragment was added to each polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and yielded a product of different size than the amplified MHC mRNA fragment. The ratio of amplified MHC fragment to synthetic fragment allowed us to calculate percentages of the gene expression of the different MHC genes in a given muscle sample. Comparison with the traditional Northern blot analysis demonstrated that our reverse transcriptase-PCR-based assay was reliable, fast, and quantitative over a wide range of relative MHC mRNA expression in a spectrum of adult and neonatal rat skeletal muscles. Furthermore, the high sensitivity of the assay made it very useful when only small quantities of tissue were available. Statistical analysis of the signals for each MHC isoform across the analyzed samples showed a highly significant correlation between the PCR and the Northern signals as Pearson correlation coefficients ranged between 0.77 and 0.96 (P < 0.005). This assay has potential use in analyzing small muscle samples such as biopsies and samples from pre- and/or neonatal stages of development.

Non-NASA Center↗

DOE OSTI2025

Hypercomplex Automatic Differentiation in the Eulerian Hydrocode PAGOSA

Enabling the computation of partial derivatives or sensitivities in production hydrocodes is beneficial for design, optimization, sensitivity analysis, and uncertainty quantification. Traditional finite difference approximations of these sensitivities are inefficient since convergence studies of the step size is required for each parameter of interest. For these reasons, HYPercomplex Automatic Differentiation (HYPAD) was implemented in the Eulerian hydrocode PAGOSA. HYPAD is analogous to forward-mode automatic differentiation except hypercomplex numbers (numbers with multiple imaginary parts) are used instead of dual numbers. Accurate partial derivatives can be computed of all state variables with respect to multiple input variables in a single run. The method was implemented using operator overloading to handle hypercomplex algebra. HYPAD was demonstrated and verified on Sod’s shock tube problem to compute derivatives of the state variables with respect to a material parameter, initial conditions, and geometry.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS1991

Thermal analysis of conceptual designs for GPHS/FPSE power systems of 250 We and 500 We

Thermal analyses were performed for two distinct configurations of a proposed space nuclear power system which combines General Purpose Heat Source (GPHS) modules with the state of the art Free-Piston Stirling Engines (FPSEs). The two configurations correspond to systems with power levels of 250 and 500 W(sub e). The 250 W(sub e) GPHS/FPSE power system utilizes four GPHS modules and one FPSE, and the 500 W(sub e) contains eight GPHS modules and two FPSEs. The configurations of the systems and the bases for selecting the configurations are described. Brief introductory sections are included to describe the GPHS modules and free piston Stirling engines. The primary focus of the thermal analyses is on the temperature of the iridium fuel clad within the GPHS modules. A design goal temperature of 1573 K was selected as the upper limit for the fuel clad during normal operating conditions. The basis for selecting this temperature limit is discussed in detail. Results obtained from thermal analysis of the 250 W(sub e) GPHS/FPSE power system indicate fuel clad temperatures which slightly exceed the design goal temperature of 1573 K. The results are considered favorable due to the numerous conservative assumptions used in developing the thermal model and performing the thermal analysis. To demonstrate the effects of the conservatism, a brief sensitivity analysis is performed in which a few of the key system parameters are varied to determine their effect on the fuel clad temperatures. It is concluded that thermal analysis of a more detailed thermal model would be expected to yield fuel clad temperatures below the design foal temperature limiy 1573 K.

Mccomas, Thomas J.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Reliability Analysis for AFTI-F16 SRFCS Using ASSIST and SURE

This paper reports the results of a study on reliability analysis of an AFTI-16 Self-Repairing Flight Control System (SRFCS) using software tools SURE (Semi-Markov Unreliability Range Evaluator and ASSIST (Abstract Semi-Markov Specification Interface to the SURE Tool). The purpose of the study is to investigate the potential utility of the software tools in the ongoing effort of the NASA Aviation Safety Program, where the class of systems must be extended beyond the originally intended serving class of electronic digital processors. The study concludes that SURE and ASSIST are applicable to reliability, analysis of flight control systems. They are especially efficient for sensitivity analysis that quantifies the dependence of system reliability on model parameters. The study also confirms an earlier finding on the dominant role of a parameter called a failure coverage. The paper will remark on issues related to the improvement of coverage and the optimization of redundancy level.

Wu, N. Eva↗

NASA NTRS1986

Senstitivty analysis and optimization of nodal point placement for vibration reduction

A method is developed for sensitivity analysis and optimization of nodal point locations in connection with vibration reduction. A straightforward derivation of the expression for the derivative of nodal locations is given, and the role of the derivative in assessing design trends is demonstrated. An optimization process is developed which uses added lumped masses on the structure as design variables to move the node to a preselected location - for example, where low response amplitude is required or to a point which makes the mode shape nearly orthogonal to the force distribution, thereby minimizing the generalized force. The optimization formulation leads to values for added masses that adjust a nodal location while minimizing the total amount of added mass required to do so. As an example, the node of the second mode of a cantilever box beam is relocated to coincide with the centroid of a prescribed force distribution, thereby reducing the generalized force substantially without adding excessive mass. A comparison with an optimization formulation that directly minimizes the generalized force indicates that nodal placement gives essentially a minimum generalized force when the node is appropriately placed.

Pritchard, J. I.↗