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At least 631 records · Page 35

A Proposal for an Integrated Geophysical Strategy to "Follow the Water" on Mars

The search for subsurface water has become a primary focus of Mars exploration. Its abundance and distribution (both as ground ice and groundwater) have important implications for understanding the geologic, hydrologic, and climatic evolution of the planet; the potential origin and continued survival of life; and the accessibility of a critical in situ resource for sustaining future human explorers. For these reasons, a principal goal of the Mars science, astrobiology, and the HEDS programs is to determine the 3-D distribution and state of subsurface H2O, at a resolution sufficient to permit reaching any desired volatile target by drilling. The three targets most often discussed are: groundwater, massive deposits of near-surface ground ice (associated with the ponded discharge of the outflow channels or the relic of a former ocean), and ice-saturated frozen ground. Based on the present best estimates of mean annual surface temperature, crustal thermal conductivity, geothermal heat flow, and groundwater freezing temperature, the mean thickness of frozen ground on Mars is expected to vary from approx. = 2.5 - 5 km at the equator to approx. = 6.5 - 13 km at the poles. However, natural variations in both crustal heat flow and thermal conductivity are likely to result in significant local departures from these predicted values. The recent discovery of "young" fluvial-like features, emanating from the slopes of local scarps, raises the possibility that liquid water may also exist episodically at shallow (approx. = 100 - 500 m) depth; however, the true nature and absolute age of these features remains highly uncertain. Although the belief that Mars is water-rich is supported by a wide variety geologic evidence, our ignorance about the heterogeneous nature and thermal evolution of the planet's crust effectively precludes geomorphic or theoretical attempts to quantitatively assess the current geographic and subsurface vertical distribution of ground ice and groundwater . For this reason, any exploration activity (such as drilling) whose success is contingent on the presence of subsurface water, must be preceded by a comprehensive high-resolution geophysical survey capable of assessing whether local reservoirs of water and ice actually exist. Terrestrial experience has demonstrated that the accurate identification of such targets is likely to require the application of multiple geophysical techniques. In this abstract we propose an integrated strategy for the geophysical exploration of Mars that we believe represents the fastest, most cost-effect, and technically capable approach to identifying the state and distribution of subsurface water. Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.

Clifford, S. M.↗

Exploring Plasma Heating in the Current Sheet Region in a Three-dimensional Coronal Mass Ejection Simulation

We simulate a coronal mass ejection using a three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic code that includes coronal heating, thermal conduction, and radiative cooling in the energy equation. The magnetic flux distribution at 1 Rs is produced by a localized subsurface dipole superimposed on a global dipole field, mimicking the presence of an active region within the global corona. Transverse electric fields are applied near the polarity inversion line to introduce a transverse magnetic field, followed by the imposition of a converging flow to form and destabilize a flux rope, producing an eruption. We examine the quantities responsible for plasma heating and cooling during the eruption, including thermal conduction, radiation, adiabatic effects, coronal heating, and ohmic heating. We find that ohmic heating is an important contributor to hot temperatures in the current sheet region early in the eruption, but in the late phase, adiabatic compression plays an important role in heating the plasma there. Thermal conduction also plays an important role in the transport of thermal energy away from the current sheet region throughout the reconnection process, producing a “thermal halo” and widening the region of high temperatures. We simulate emission from solar telescopes for this eruption and find that there is evidence for emission from heated plasma above the flare loops late in the eruption, when the adiabatic heating is the dominant heating term. These results provide an explanation for hot supra-arcade plasma sheets that are often observed in X-rays and extreme ultraviolet wavelengths during the decay phase of large flares.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The effect of original and initial saturation on residual nonwetting phase capillary trapping efficiency

Injection of supercritical carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) into geological formations is a strategy for both atmospheric greenhouse gas reduction (climate change mitigation) and enhanced oil recovery. To understand CO 2 trapping efficiency, the capillary trapping behaviors that immobilize subsurface fluids were analyzed at the pore-scale using pairs of proxy fluids representing the range of in situ nonwetting and wetting fluid properties encountered in geologic storage reservoirs. The pairs of fluids were cycled through imbibition and drainage processes using a flow cell apparatus containing a sintered glass bead column. Computed x-ray microtomography (microCT) was used to identify immobilized nonwetting fluid after imbibition and drainage events. From microCT images, the trapped residual (post-secondary imbibition) nonwetting phase was spatially correlated to both the original (post-primary imbibition) and the initial (post-primary drainage) nonwetting phase; this relationship is referred to here as the original saturation dependence (SO-dependence) and initial saturation dependence (SI-dependence), respectively. Significant trends of decreasing SO- and SI-dependence with increasing wetting and nonwetting fluid phase viscosities were observed. This finding implies that the amount of CO 2 injected and ultimately trapped is dependent on the nonwetting phase (e.g. oil or gas) already present in the formation, as well as on the manner in which supercritical CO 2 is initially injected, which are factors not considered in current trapping models. To explore the potential effect that varying viscosity and interfacial tension (IFT) might have on this process, we report on a variety of fluid pairs with different viscosities and IFT.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Development and evaluation of a variably saturated flow model in the global E3SM Land Model (ELM) version 1.0

Abstract. Improving global-scale model representations of near-surface soil moisture and groundwater hydrology is important for accurately simulating terrestrial processes and predicting climate change effects on water resources. Most existing land surface models, including the default E3SM Land Model (ELMv0), which we modify here, routinely employ different formulations for water transport in the vadose and phreatic zones. Clark et al. (2015) identified a variably saturated Richards equation flow model as an important capability for improving simulation of coupled soil moisture and shallow groundwater dynamics. In this work, we developed the Variably Saturated Flow Model (VSFM) in ELMv1 to unify the treatment of soil hydrologic processes in the unsaturated and saturated zones. VSFM was tested on three benchmark problems and results were evaluated against observations and an existing benchmark model (PFLOTRAN). The ELMv1-VSFM's subsurface drainage parameter, fd, was calibrated to match an observationally constrained and spatially explicit global water table depth (WTD) product. Optimal spatially explicit fd values were obtained for 79 % of global 1.9∘ × 2.5∘ grid cells, while the remaining 21 % of global grid cells had predicted WTD deeper than the observationally constrained estimate. Comparison with predictions using the default fd value demonstrated that calibration significantly improved predictions, primarily by allowing much deeper WTDs. Model evaluation using the International Land Model Benchmarking package (ILAMB) showed that improvements in WTD predictions did not degrade model skill for any other metrics. We evaluated the computational performance of the VSFM model and found that the model is about 30 % more expensive than the default ELMv0 with an optimal processor layout. The modular software design of VSFM not only provides flexibility to configure the model for a range of problem setups but also allows for building the model independently of the ELM code, thus enabling straightforward testing of the model's physics against other models.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

A statistical and simulation-informed model for estimating permeability from pore size distribution in saturated geomaterials

Accurate permeability estimation is essential across subsurface engineering applications but remains challenging due to the complex pore structures of natural geomaterials. Traditional empirical methods and simplified theoretical models often inadequately capture the role of pore size distribution and connectivity. Here, this study develops a statistical and simulation-informed permeability model that collapses pore-scale complexity into a compact scaling of the form k = αϕμ d 2 , where ϕ is porosity, μ d is mean pore size, and α is a weakly varying coefficient. By combining pore network simulations with statistical analysis of unimodal and bimodal pore size distributions, we identify three key findings: (i) permeability is much more sensitive to mean pore size than to porosity; (ii) across extensive datasets, the ratio σ d /μ d (standard deviation to mean) clusters around a characteristic value ∼0.4, allowing the effects of the full pore size distribution to be represented by μ d and a narrowly varying α ≈ 0.05; and (iii) for bimodal systems, there exists a critical fraction of small pores ∼0.78 above which flow becomes small-pore dominated, enabling the definition of an effective flow-controlling pore population and facilitating simplified permeability estimation for such systems. The resulting model, which requires only porosity and a representative mean pore size as inputs, is validated against comprehensive experimental datasets (>1700 samples) spanning diverse soils and rocks and achieves good predictive accuracy. Overall, this work provides a physically grounded yet practically simple permeability estimator suitable for subsurface engineering, environmental protection, and resource management applications.

Permeability↗

Subsurface Cl-bearing salts as potential contributors to recurring slope lineae (RSL) on Mars

We report laboratory experimental results that support a brine-related hypothesis for the recurring slope lineae (RSL) on Mars in which the subsurface Cl-salts, i.e., hydrous chlorides and oxychlorine salts (HyCOS) are the potential source materials. Our experiments revealed that within the observed RSL temperature window TRSL (250–300 K), the deliquescence of HyCOS could occur in relative humidity ranges (RH≥22%–46%) much lower than those for hydrous (Mg, Fe)-sulfates (RH≥75%–96%). In addition, we demonstrated that the RH values kept by common HyCOS and hydrous sulfates in enclosures have a general trend as RH(sulfates) > RH(perchlorates) > RH(chlorides) (with same type of cation) in wide T range. It means that the required RH range for a Cl-bearing salt to deliquescence can be satisfied by a co-existing salt of different type, e.g., in the subsurface layers of mixed salts on Mars. Furthermore, we found a strong temperature dependence of the deliquescence rates for all tested HyCOS, e.g., a duration of 1–5 sols for all HyCOS at the high end (300 K) of TRSL, and of 20–70 sols for all tested HyCOS (except NaClO4·H2O) at the low end (250 K) of TRSL, which is consistent with the observed seasonal behavior of RSL on Mars. From a mass-balance point of view, the currently observed evidences on Mars do not support a fully-brine-wetted track model, thus we suggest a brine-triggered granular-flow model for the most RSL. Considering the recurrence of RSL in consecutive martian years, our experimental results support the rehydration of remnant HyCOS layers during a martian cold season through H2O vapor-to-salt direct interaction. We found that the evidences of HyCOS rehydration under Mars relevant P-T-RH conditions are detectable in a few minutes by in situ Raman spectroscopy. This rehydration would facilitate the recharge of H2O back into subsurface HyCOS, which could serve as the source material to trigger RSL in a subsequent warm season. The major limiting factor for this rehydration is the H2O supply, i.e., the H2O vapor density carried by current Mars atmospheric circulation and the diffusion rate of H2O vapor into the salt-rich subsurface in a cold season. In a worst-case scenario, these H2O supplies can support a maximum increase of hydration degrees of two for totally dehydrated HyCOS, whereas the full rehydration of subsurface HyCOS layers can be easily reached during a>30° obliquity period that has H2O vapor density 10× to 20× times the value of current obliquity. Overall, our results imply the existence of a large amount of Cl-bearing salts in the subsurface at RSL sites.

Alian Wang↗

Geochemistry and Strontium Isotopes for Coal Creek Watershed, Colorado, 2021-2022

The geochemistry and strontium isotope data for Coal Creek Watershed, Colorado, consists of cation, anion, and 87Sr/87Sr isotope values from samples collected at 8 stream location along Coal Creek, samples from two groundwater springs within the watershed, and a shallow subsurface piezometer. All stream and spring samples were collected between June and October, 2021, and the shallow, near stream piezometer sample was collected in July of 2022. These data were collected to evaluate how groundwater contributions to Coal Creek originating from shallow vs deep flow paths respond seasonal drying. Understanding of groundwater-surface water interactions in montane systems in critical for the future of water availability in the Western US as groundwater contributions are expected to become more important for sustaining summer stream flows. This data package contains: (1) a csv of all cation samples; (2) a csv of all anion samples; (3) a csv of all 87Sr/87Sr isotope samples; and (4) a csv of locations for each sampling site. The dataset additionally includes a file-level metadata (flmd.csv) file that lists each file contained in the dataset with associated metadata; and a data dictionary (dd.csv) file that contains column/row headers used throughout the files along with a definition, units, and data type.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Vadose Zone Transport of Tritium and Nitrate under Ponded Water Conditions

Vadose zone transport of tritium and nitrate can be important considerations at radioactive waste sites, landfills, or areas with industrial impacts. These contaminants are of particular concern because they typically have a relatively higher mobility in the subsurface compared to other compounds. Here, we describe a semiarid site with tritium and nitrate contamination involving a manmade ponded water source above a thick unsaturated zone at Los Alamos National Laboratory in New Mexico, USA. This study demonstrates the value of vadose zone flow and transport modeling for the development of field investigation plans (i.e., identifying optimal borehole locations and depths for contaminant characterization), and how a combination of modeling with isotope and geochemical measurements can provide insight into how tritium and nitrate transport in the vadose zone in semiarid environments. Modeling results suggest that at this location, tritium transport is well predicted by classical multiphase theory. Our work expands the demonstrated usefulness of a standard tritium conceptual model to sites with ponded surface conditions and agrees with previous results where a standard model was able to explain the evolution of a tritium plume at an arid waste disposal site. In addition, depth-based analyses of δ 18 O and δ 2 H of pore waters helped confirm the extent of pond infiltration into the vadose zone, and the δ 15 N of nitrate showed that the contaminant release history of the site was different than originally assumed.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Heat flow experiment

The heat flow experiment installed on the lunar surface during the Apollo 15 flight is described. Subjects discussed are: (1) the experiment concept and design, (2) the operations of the experiment, (3) the employment of the experiment on the lunar surface at Hadley Rille site, (4) subsurface lunar temperatures, and (5) extrapolation of sensor temperatures to equilibrium values. Graphs of the data obtained from the experiment are provided.

Langseth, M. G., Jr.↗

Projecting Antarctica's contribution to future sea level rise from basal ice shelf melt using linear response functions of 16 ice sheet models (LARMIP-2)

Abstract. The sea level contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet constitutes a large uncertainty in future sea level projections. Here we apply a linear response theory approach to 16 state-of-the-art ice sheet models to estimate the Antarctic ice sheet contribution from basal ice shelf melting within the 21st century. The purpose of this computation is to estimate the uncertainty of Antarctica's future contribution to global sea level rise that arises from large uncertainty in the oceanic forcing and the associated ice shelf melting. Ice shelf melting is considered to be a major if not the largest perturbation of the ice sheet's flow into the ocean. However, by computing only the sea level contribution in response to ice shelf melting, our study is neglecting a number of processes such as surface-mass-balance-related contributions. In assuming linear response theory, we are able to capture complex temporal responses of the ice sheets, but we neglect any self-dampening or self-amplifying processes. This is particularly relevant in situations in which an instability is dominating the ice loss. The results obtained here are thus relevant, in particular wherever the ice loss is dominated by the forcing as opposed to an internal instability, for example in strong ocean warming scenarios. In order to allow for comparison the methodology was chosen to be exactly the same as in an earlier study (Levermann et al., 2014) but with 16 instead of 5 ice sheet models. We include uncertainty in the atmospheric warming response to carbon emissions (full range of CMIP5 climate model sensitivities), uncertainty in the oceanic transport to the Southern Ocean (obtained from the time-delayed and scaled oceanic subsurface warming in CMIP5 models in relation to the global mean surface warming), and the observed range of responses of basal ice shelf melting to oceanic warming outside the ice shelf cavity. This uncertainty in basal ice shelf melting is then convoluted with the linear response functions of each of the 16 ice sheet models to obtain the ice flow response to the individual global warming path. The model median for the observational period from 1992 to 2017 of the ice loss due to basal ice shelf melting is 10.2 mm, with a likely range between 5.2 and 21.3 mm. For the same period the Antarctic ice sheet lost mass equivalent to 7.4 mm of global sea level rise, with a standard deviation of 3.7 mm (Shepherd et al., 2018) including all processes, especially surface-mass-balance changes. For the unabated warming path, Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5), we obtain a median contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet to global mean sea level rise from basal ice shelf melting within the 21st century of 17 cm, with a likely range (66th percentile around the mean) between 9 and 36 cm and a very likely range (90th percentile around the mean) between 6 and 58 cm. For the RCP2.6 warming path, which will keep the global mean temperature below 2 ∘C of global warming and is thus consistent with the Paris Climate Agreement, the procedure yields a median of 13 cm of global mean sea level contribution. The likely range for the RCP2.6 scenario is between 7 and 24 cm, and the very likely range is between 4 and 37 cm. The structural uncertainties in the method do not allow for an interpretation of any higher uncertainty percentiles. We provide projections for the five Antarctic regions and for each model and each scenario separately. The rate of sea level contribution is highest under the RCP8.5 scenario. The maximum within the 21st century of the median value is 4 cm per decade, with a likely range between 2 and 9 cm per decade and a very likely range between 1 and 14 cm per decade.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Boat-Dragged Riverbed and Mid-Column Water Quality along the Hanford Reach in the Columbia River Shorelines

This dataset contains water quality measurements used to identify sites of hydrologic exchange (i.e.hydrologic exchange flows; HEFs) in the Columbia River near Richland, WA by looking for anomalies in temperature and electrical conductivity (EC) along the bed of the river in February, June, July, August, and November 2017. These are ultimately the ‘ends’ of HEFs as they are locations of subsurface inflow to the river. This dataset contains dissolved oxygen (DO) measurements at 1-min intervals; temperature, EC, depth, and GPS coordinates at 1-second intervals; and N-NO3 at 2-min intervals along the river bed and mid-column water. DO measurements are included in this dataset for completeness but were not used in the analysis of HEFs due to the relatively long time interval of collection.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

An Integrated Feasibility Study of Reservoir Thermal Energy Storage (RTES) in Portland, OR, USA

In regions with long cold overcast winters and sunny summers, Deep Direct-Use (DDU) can be coupled with Reservoir Thermal Energy Storage (RTES) technology to take advantage of pre-existing subsurface permeability to save summer heat for later use during cold seasons. Many aquifers worldwide are underlain by permeable regions (reservoirs) containing brackish or saline groundwater that has limited beneficial use due to poor water quality. We investigate the utility of these relatively deep, slow flowing reservoirs for RTES by conducting an integrated feasibility study in the Portland Basin, Oregon, USA, developing methods and obtaining results that can be widely applied to RTES systems elsewhere. As a case study, we have conducted an economic and social cost-benefit analysis for the Oregon Health and Science University (OHSU), a teaching hospital that is recognized as critical infrastructure in the Portland Metropolitan Area. Our investigation covers key factors that influence feasibility including 1) the geologic framework, 2) heat and fluid flow modeling, 3) capital and maintenance costs, 4) the regulatory framework, and 5) operational risks. By pairing a model of building seasonal heat demand with an integrated model of RTES resource supply, we determine that the most important factors that influence RTES efficacy in the study area are operational schedule, well spacing, the amount of summer heat stored (in our model, a function of solar array size), and longevity of the system. Generally, heat recovery efficiency increases as the reservoir and surrounding rocks warm, making RTES more economical with time. Selecting a base-case scenario, we estimate a levelized cost of heat (LCOH) to compare with other sources of heating available to OHSU and find that it is comparable to unsubsidized solar and nuclear, but more expensive than natural gas. Additional benefits of RTES include energy resiliency in the event that conventional energy supplies are disrupted (e.g., natural disaster) and a reduction in fossil fuel consumption resulting in a smaller carbon footprint. Key risks include reservoir heterogeneity and a possible reduction in permeability through time due to scaling (mineral precipitation). Lastly, a map of thermal energy storage capacity for the Portland Basin yields a total of 43,400 GWh, suggesting tremendous potential for RTES in the Portland Metropolitan Area.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

3D Geologic Framework Modelling of the Los Alamos National Laboratory Site and Pajarito Plateau: Integrating a realistic 3D fault network and modelling subsurface relationships in a sparsely sampled and complex geologic region

The subsurface geology beneath the Pajarito Plateau is critical to understanding the seismic hazard of the Pajarito Fault System, yet our understanding of this geology is relatively poor. While previous 3D geologic framework models of the area have been created for the purposes of understanding hydrogeologic flow, they are inadequate for the purposes of understanding the Pajarito Fault System. The specific challenges of using oil and gas software for this purpose include: (1) the geologic complexities resulting from volcanism and tectonism; (2) a need for a high level of stratigraphic detail over a large area; (3) a near complete lack of seismic data; and (4) sparse wellbore data. Presented here is a workflow that handles these challenges of adapting commercially available software used by the oil and gas industries to this seismic hazard problem.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Thermal Characterization and Exhumation of Northwest San Juan Basin Area, NM

The San Juan Basin (SJB), located in southwestern Colorado northwestern New Mexico, containing Paleozoic through middle Cenozoic strata, formed as a partitioned basin approximately 80 Ma in response to the Laramide orogeny. The SJB is a commercially mature, petroleum-producing basin, and currently being explored for CCUS and geothermal resources. Modern heat flow within the SJB is spatially variable with higher geothermal gradients in its northern and eastern portions. The temporal history of the basin thermal history is essential for understanding capacity for carbon storage and geothermal exploration. We present thermochronometric analyses of two surface and two subsurface samples to constrain spatial-temporal thermal evolution of the northwestern San Juan Basin. Apatite (U-Th)/He thermochronometric analyses were conducted on Cliff House and Kirtland Formation outcrops and subsurface samples of the Ojo Alamo and Pictured Cliffs Formations from a DOE funded, CCUS project pilot-well. In addition, vitrinite reflectance data and 1D basin modelling constrain possible time-temperature pathways of the samples in an area where no previous studies have constrained the uplift/exhumation of the Hogback Monocline using thermochronometry. Modeling suggests that elevated subsurface temperatures developed simultaneously with regional late Oligiocene volcanism in the San Juan Volcanic field and timing of maximum burial in the SJB. Late Miocene to Pliocene cooling/exhumation through the apatite (U-Th)/He partial retention zone support stratigraphic evidence of the Colorado Plateau uplift, possibly regional epeirogenic uplift driven by mantle processes.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Evaluation of Two-Dimensional to One-Dimensional Site Response for Idaho National Laboratory

We perform two-dimensional (2D) site response analyses accounting for spatial variability of soil properties and subsurface geometry of the Eastern Snake River Plane (ESRP), and quantify their effects on ground surface motion relative to one-dimensional (1D) site response analyses at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL). We first present the development of random field idealizations of the repeated basalt lava flows, heterogeneously inter-layered with sediments, from seismic velocity data collected over four decades in the ESRP. Using realizations of the stochastic fields mapped on 2D deterministic finite element models, we perform 2D viscoelastic and equivalent-linear wave propagation simulations, and quantify the mean and variance of site response aggravation factors, defined as the response spectral ratio of 2D to 1D analyses on the ground surface. Results are shown to be insensitive to the constitutive material behavior considered here, for strains induced by rock outcrop peak ground acceleration (PGA) as high as 0.7g: viscoelastic and equivalent-linear analyses predict peak mean 2D/1D aggravation factor 1.05 at period T=0.075 sec (i.e. the 2D response spectrum is 5% higher than the corresponding 1D at that period, on average), which corresponds to the wavelength of the horizontal correlation length of the random field (50m). For periods longer than the fundamental period of the site (here, T 1 =0.3125 sec), the propagating wavelengths are too long to be affected by the 1D site response and the aggravation factor becomes equal to 1. The standard deviation of the natural logarithms of the 2D/1D aggravation factors is ~0.15 for periods shorter than the fundamental period of the site, and decays thereafter at a steady rate.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Determining stress states using dike swarms: The Lauma Dorsa example

Initial examination of the Magellan coverage of Venus has revealed between 150 and 300 large, radially lineated landforms distributed across the planet's surface. Where the lineaments have been examined in detail, the majority fail to exhibit signatures indicative of relief at or above the resolution of the radar; however, when the sense of topographic relief may be ascertained, the lineaments commonly appear as fissures or flat-floored trenches interpreted as graben. Individual lineaments can display graben, fissure, and zero relief behavior along their length, suggesting either that these differences are a function of the resolution of the radar, or that the morphological distinctions are real but somehow genetically linked. In many instances, radial lineaments exhibiting these characteristics are directly associated with surface volcanism, including flanking and terminal flows, superimposed shield domes and pit chains, and central, calderalike topographic lows. These observable characteristics, as well as theoretical studies and comparison with similar terrestrial features, have led to the working hypothesis that many of the radial fracture systems on Venus are the surface manifestation of subsurface dikes propagating laterally from a central magma source. If this interpretation is correct, studies of terrestrial dikes suggest that the lineament directions, with localized exceptions and barring subsequent deformation, should be perpendicular to the orientation of the least compressive stress at the time of their formation. To test this hypothesis, we briefly examine a radial fracture system (63.7 degrees N, 195 degrees E) located between two deformation belts in Vinmara Planitia, and verify that the lineaments to the east behave in the expected manner. We have also chosen this feature, however, because of its proximity to Lauma Dorsa to the west. On the basis of Venera 15/16 data, both compressional and extensional origins for this deformation belt have been proposed. By examining the stratigraphy and applying our interpretation that the fracture system is linked to the presence of subsurface dikes, we present an independent evaluation of the stress state associated with Lauma Dorsa, and thus contribute to the assessment of its origin.

Grosfils, Eric B.↗

Earth Source Heat: A Cascaded Systems Approach to DDU of Geothermal Energy on the Cornell Campus

This report documents the completion of the DOE study DE-EE0008103: Earth Source Heat: A Cascaded Systems Approach to DDU of Geothermal Energy on the Cornell Campus. This study involved a comprehensive evaluation of the potential for Earth Source Heat (ESH), Cornell’s specific application of Deep Direct Use (DDU) geothermal energy, to create a viable renewable source of thermal energy for its Ithaca, NY campus district heating system. The study included stochastic modeling that married each of two potential subsurface resources (two specific geological reservoirs) to documented campus heating operations based on hourly campus heating profiles and proposed integrated equipment controls (variable speed pumps and heat pumps). The outputs of the subsurface modeling were used as inputs for a Cornell-developed surface heat use Excel-based modeling program (the program was named “Modeled ENergy Use”, or “MEnU”). This allowed Cornell to compute realistic annual totals of extractable and useable heat for the campus, including details like heat losses, minimum summer demand, and controllable building temperature settings. The Cornell team then evaluated the costs and benefits of each modeled scenario. The primary evaluation was a standard “single bottom line” economic calculation for the Levelized Cost of Heat (LCOH). This represents the annualized cost (per unit heat) for Cornell. Additional valuations were also computed based on the benefit to the environment and to the regional economy (i.e., economic benefits external to campus). The results of this study demonstrate that if suitable reservoir flow can be attained, Earth Source Heat would be a viable technology to supply Cornell’s district heating system. This viability is based on the following criteria: (1) The modeled system produced a total useable heat output that exceeded the minimum annual campus heat load determined at the onset of the project (i.e., offsetting at least 20% of the annual campus thermal load). The output range is substantial depending on both the subsurface resource and the surface applications; at the high end, our modeled solutions produced up to ~70% of existing campus heat load with a single well pair producing 70 kg/s with integrated high-temperature heat pumps, and (2) Modeling demonstrated that multiple geothermal reservoirs could provide economically viable results when heat pumps were strategically integrated, a design that has been proven in at least one European installation already. In this context, “economically viable” means that the LCOH for the project is less than the regional commercial price of heat that would be generated using natural gas (the most common and cheapest fossil alternative in our area). Based on a single-bottom-line (LCOH) valuation, our results show that economic success is likely for any reservoir deeper than about 2.25 km where a sufficient permeability exists (or can be created with stimulation or similar engineering enhancement) and reasonable production temperatures sustained over time. The LCOH values of $\$ 4.77$ to $\$ 6.46$ per MMBtu are all lower than the comparable cost of providing heat energy with a natural gas boiler for a facility in the Northeast U.S. that obtains natural gas at commercial rates (Commercial heat costs would include at least $\$ 9.41$ in fuel costs, representing total boiler/transfer efficiency of 85% using gas at $\$ 8.00$ per MMBtu; LCOH would be higher if capital equipment and other operating costs were included). In addition to LCOH, Cornell’s scope also included evaluation of the Environmental value and Regional Economic value of each scenario. When considering the environmental and regional economic value of such a project, the overall “triple bottom line” cost (i.e., the LCOH less the LCOH ENV and LCOH REG values) is even lower and in some cases negative; i.e., in some cases a project achieving the listed performance would have higher value to the environment and to the regional economy than the total project costs over the 30-year project timeframe.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Deep Unsaturated Zone Contributions to Carbon Cycling in Semiarid Environments

Understanding terrestrial carbon cycling has relied primarily on studies of topsoils that are typically characterized to depths shallower than 0.5 m. At a semiarid site instrumented down to 7 m, here we measured seasonal- and depth-resolved carbon inventories and fluxes and groundwater and unsaturated zone flow rates. Measurements showed that ~30% of the CO 2 efflux to the atmosphere (60% in winter) originates from below 1 m, contrary to predictions of less than 1% by Earth System Model land modules. Respiration from deeper roots and deeper microbial communities is supported by favorable subsurface temperatures, moisture, and oxygen availability. Below 1 m, dissolved organic carbon fluxes from the overlying soil and C from deep roots and exudates are expected to be important in sustaining microbial respiration. Finally, because these conditions are characteristic of semiarid climate regions, we contend that Earth System Model land modules should incorporate such deeper soil processes to improve CO 2 flux predictions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗