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DOE OSTI2020

Predictive and Cooperative Voltage Control with Probabilistic Load and Solar Generation Forecasting

This paper proposes predictive cooperative voltage control method in a power system with high penetration of photovoltaic (PV) units. Cooperative distributed control of the reactive power output of PV inverters is coordinated with operation of voltage regulators (VRs) to maintain system voltages within an appropriate bandwidth. Probabilistic forecasting of the solar power generation and the loads is applied to estimate voltage changes which, in turn, are used to set the VR tap positions for preventing large voltage fluctuations with the lowest risk considering the voltage distribution estimation. The fine tuning of voltage adjustment is achieved by cooperative control of PV inverters to maintain a uniform voltage profile across the system. The proposed method is tested on the modified IEEE 123-node test feeder with high PV penetration using real insolation data and with constant loads replaced by several different load profiles. Simulation results demonstrate the effectiveness of the coordinated approach for voltage control with cooperative PV and predictive VR controls taking into account probabilistic load and solar power forecasts.

Cooperative Control↗

DOE OSTI2021

Predictive Coordinated and Cooperative Voltage Control for Systems With High Penetration of PV

In this paper, we propose a predictive coordinated and cooperative voltage control method in a power distribution system with high penetration of photovoltaic (PV) units. First, an integrated coordinated voltage control of voltage regulators (VRs) tap positions and cooperative distributed control of the reactive power output from PV inverters are used to maintain system voltages within an appropriate bandwidth. Next, solar power forecasting is applied to predict voltage changes, which are used to set the VR tap positions and capacitor switch status to prevent large voltage fluctuations. The fine tuning of voltage adjustment is then achieved by cooperative control of PV inverters to maintain a uniform voltage profile across the system. The proposed method is tested on a modified IEEE 123-node test feeder with high penetration of PVs using real measurement data and compared with the base case. Simulation results demonstrate the effectiveness of the integrated voltage control, as well as the enhancement from the predictive control through solar power forecasting-enabled voltage change estimates. Comparison to previous work in the literature shows significant improvement in terms of voltage deviation and reduction in excessive tap changes.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Multi-Agent Hierarchical Deep Reinforcement Learning for HVAC Control With Flexible DERs

As electricity consumption in commercial and residential buildings continues to rise, reducing energy costs presents an increasing challenge. Heating, ventilating, and air-conditioning (HVAC) systems, which typically account for 40%-50% of a building's energy use, are prime targets for energy savings. Intelligent control of HVAC temperature through the exploitation of HVAC load flexibility brings significant potential to reduce energy consumption and electricity expenses. The nonlinear models of HVAC systems challenge traditional control methods, while the uncertainty introduced by HVAC load flexibility complicates distributed energy resource (DER) management using conventional optimal dispatch techniques. In response to these challenges, we propose a hierarchical multi-agent deep reinforcement learning (DRL) approach. The lower-level agents focus on balancing comfort and energy conservation, while the upper-level DRL agents optimize the use of DERs to reduce peak demand based on the control outcomes of the HVAC by the lower-level agents. Here, in the upper-level agents, we incorporate a multi-agent structure based on ensemble learning, which acts based on historical and current data without relying on precise load forecasting to address the delayed rewarding issue in DRL. This allows for the effective reduction of energy costs. The proposed method is tested using a real-world microgrid comprising 413 buildings in Southern California, and the results demonstrate that our approach can significantly reduce overall electricity bills while ensuring the comfort of consumers and residents.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2022

Landscape connectivity for the invisibles

Because of land use changes, a worldwide decrease in biodiversity is underway, mostly driven by habitat degradation and fragmentation. Increasing landscape connectivity (i.e. the degree to which the landscape facilitates movement between habitat patches) has been proposed as a key landscape-level strategy to counterbalance the negative effects of habitat fragmentation. A robust theoretical and methodological framework has been developed for the concept of connectivity, and an increasing body of empirical evidence supports the relevance of connectivity for biodiversity. However, the framework was built ignoring species that represent the dominant proportion of biodiversity on earth: microorganisms. The extent to which the existing conceptual and methodological frameworks on connectivity can be applied to microorganisms remain unknown. We reviewed existing evidence and analyzed methods to test the influence of connectivity on microorganisms. We included all types of microorganisms, from symbiotic to pathogenic and free-living microorganisms, across all ecosystems. We describe the effect of connectivity on microorganism populations and communities, and identify the limitations and large gaps in current knowledge. Microorganisms can differ from macroorganisms in their response to connectivity due to short (distance less than a meter) dispersal distance of some groups, longer time lag of microorganisms response (possibly accompanied by evolutionary processes) and host association. The latter relies on tight interactions and feedback effects that drive microbial-landscape relationships and lead to possible coadaptation processes. Incorporating the connectivity concept in microbial community assembly rules to preserve the diversity of microbial communities and the ecosystem services they provide could be a crucial step forward in the face of pressing global changes.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Experimental Performance of a Nonlinear Control Strategy to Regulate Temperature of a High-Temperature Solar Reactor

Abstract Despite the significant potential of solar thermochemical process technology for storing solar energy as solid-state solar fuel, several challenges have made its industrial application difficult. It is important to note that solar energy has a transient nature that causes instability and reduces process efficiency. Therefore, it is crucial to implement a robust control system to regulate the process temperature and tackle the shortage of incoming solar energy during cloudy weather. In our previous works, different model-based control strategies were developed namely a proportional integral derivative controller (PID) with gain scheduling and adaptive model predictive control (MPC). These methods were tested numerically to regulate the temperature inside a high-temperature tubular solar reactor. In this work, the proposed control strategies were experimentally tested under various operation conditions. The controllers were challenged to track different setpoints (500 °C, 1000 °C, and 1450 °C) with different amounts of gas/particle flowrates. Additionally, the flow controller was tested to regulate the reactor temperature under a cloudy weather scenario. The ultimate goal was to produce 5 kg of reduced solar fuel magnesium manganese oxide (MgMn2O4) successfully, and the controllers were able to track the required process temperature and reject disturbances despite the system's strong nonlinearity. The experimental results showed a maximum error in the temperature setpoint of less than 0.5% (6 °C), and the MPC controller demonstrated superior performance in reducing the control effort and rejecting disturbances.

Energy & Fuels↗

DOE OSTI2023

Physical vapor deposition simulator by graphical processor unit ray casting

This paper presents fast, accurate software for modeling physical vapor deposition systems over irregular surfaces. The model is implemented using graphics processing unit (GPU) ray casting. Applied models are viewed as a cross section of the area of interest. Given evaporation rate, time, and angular profiles in a vacuum system, an iterative time-step approach for calculating deposition profiles is calculated in the GPU architecture following a ballistic modeling approach. Thin-film technologies for the electronics industry will require evaporations on complex surfaces. Depending on the nature of the surface, a uniform thin film across the topology is wanted for various device parameters. The ray casting method is tested against various profiles. The code is freely distributed on GitHub (see https://github.com/adam-r-thomas/PVDS).

Engineering↗

DOE OSTI2021

Multilevel Hierarchical Decomposition of Finite Element White Noise with Application to Multilevel Markov Chain Monte Carlo

In this work we develop a new hierarchical multilevel approach to generate Gaussian random field realizations in an algorithmically scalable manner that is well suited to incorporating into multilevel Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms. This approach builds off of other partial differential equation (PDE) approaches for generating Gaussian random field realizations; in particular, a single field realization may be formed by solving a reaction-diffusion PDE with a spatial white noise source function as the right-hand side. While these approaches have been explored to accelerate forward uncertainty quantification tasks, e.g., multilevel Monte Carlo, the previous constructions are not directly applicable to multilevel MCMC frameworks which build fine-scale random fields in a hierarchical fashion from coarse-scale random fields. Our new hierarchical multilevel method relies on a hierarchical decomposition of the white noise source function in $L^2$ which allows us to form Gaussian random field realizations across multiple levels of discretization in a way that fits into multilevel MCMC algorithmic frameworks. After presenting our main theoretical results and numerical scaling results to showcase the utility of this new hierarchical PDE method for generating Gaussian random field realizations, this method is tested on a four-level MCMC algorithm to explore its feasibility.

algebraic multigrid↗

DOE OSTI2024

Discovering the Unknowns: A First Step

This article aims at discovering the unknown variables in the system through data analysis. The main idea is to use the time of data collection as a surrogate variable and try to identify the unknown variables by modeling gradual and sudden changes in the data. We use Gaussian process modeling and a sparse representation of the sudden changes to efficiently estimate the large number of parameters in the proposed statistical model. The method is tested on a realistic dataset generated using a one-dimensional implementation of a Magnetized Liner Inertial Fusion (MagLIF) simulation model, and encouraging results are obtained.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

MiniMOD

SAND2025-03854O MiniMod is a user-friendly software tool designed to assess the performance of high-performance computing (HPC) systems. Researchers can use the program to test communication methods and computational tasks to understand how different setups can affect application efficiency. This software is particularly useful for optimizing network performance in scientific research, simulations, and data analysis. MiniMod‘s flexible design allows users to make informed decisions about their computing environments, which can enhance productivity and results in real-world applications. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

Dosanjh, Matthew [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), L↗

DOE OSTI2021

Too Good to Be True? Evaluation of Colonoscopy Sensitivity Assumptions Used in Policy Models

Background: Models can help guide colorectal cancer screening policy. Although models are carefully calibrated and validated, there is less scrutiny of assumptions about test performance. Methods: We examined the validity of the CRC-SPIN model and colonoscopy sensitivity assumptions. Standard sensitivity assumptions, consistent with published decision analyses, assume sensitivity equal to 0.75 for diminutive adenomas (<6 mm), 0.85 for small adenomas (6–10 mm), 0.95 for large adenomas (≥10 mm), and 0.95 for preclinical cancer. We also selected adenoma sensitivity that resulted in more accurate predictions. Targets were drawn from the Wheat Bran Fiber study. In the study, we examined how well the model predicted outcomes measured over a three-year follow-up period, including the number of adenomas detected, the size of the largest adenoma detected, and incident colorectal cancer. Results: Using standard sensitivity assumptions, the model predicted adenoma prevalence that was too low (42.5% versus 48.9% observed, with 95% confidence interval 45.3%–50.7%) and detection of too few large adenomas (5.1% versus 14.% observed, with 95% confidence interval 11.8%–17.4%). Predictions were close to targets when we set sensitivities to 0.20 for diminutive adenomas, 0.60 for small adenomas, 0.80 for 10- to 20-mm adenomas, and 0.98 for adenomas 20 mm and larger. Conclusions: Colonoscopy may be less accurate than currently assumed, especially for diminutive adenomas. Alternatively, the CRC-SPIN model may not accurately simulate onset and progression of adenomas in higher-risk populations. Impact: Misspecification of either colonoscopy sensitivity or disease progression in high-risk populations may affect the predicted effectiveness of colorectal cancer screening. When possible, decision analyses used to inform policy should address these uncertainties.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Automatic Traffic Queue-End Identification using Location-Based Waze User Reports

Traffic queues, especially queues caused by non-recurrent events such as incidents, are unexpected to high-speed drivers approaching the end of queue (EOQ) and become safety concerns. Though the topic has been extensively studied, the identification of EOQ has been limited by the spatial-temporal resolution of traditional data sources. This study explores the potential of location-based crowdsourced data, specifically Waze user reports. It presents a dynamic clustering algorithm that can group the location-based reports in real time and identify the spatial-temporal extent of congestion as well as the EOQ. The algorithm is a spatial-temporal extension of the density-based spatial clustering of applications with noise (DBSCAN) algorithm for real-time streaming data with an adaptive threshold selection procedure. Here, the proposed method was tested with 34 traffic congestion cases in the Knoxville, Tennessee area of the United States. It is demonstrated that the algorithm can effectively detect spatial-temporal extent of congestion based on Waze report clusters and identify EOQ in real-time. The Waze report-based detection are compared to the detection based on roadside sensor data. The results are promising: The EOQ identification time of Waze is similar to the EOQ detection time of traffic sensor data, with only 1.1 min difference on average. In addition, Waze generates 1.9 EOQ detection points every mile, compared to 1.8 detection points generated by traffic sensor data, suggesting the two data sources are comparable in respect of reporting frequency. The results indicate that Waze is a valuable complementary source for EOQ detection where no traffic sensors are installed.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2021

DeepGRN: prediction of transcription factor binding site across cell-types using attention-based deep neural networks

Abstract Background Due to the complexity of the biological systems, the prediction of the potential DNA binding sites for transcription factors remains a difficult problem in computational biology. Genomic DNA sequences and experimental results from parallel sequencing provide available information about the affinity and accessibility of genome and are commonly used features in binding sites prediction. The attention mechanism in deep learning has shown its capability to learn long-range dependencies from sequential data, such as sentences and voices. Until now, no study has applied this approach in binding site inference from massively parallel sequencing data. The successful applications of attention mechanism in similar input contexts motivate us to build and test new methods that can accurately determine the binding sites of transcription factors. Results In this study, we propose a novel tool (named DeepGRN) for transcription factors binding site prediction based on the combination of two components: single attention module and pairwise attention module. The performance of our methods is evaluated on the ENCODE-DREAM in vivo Transcription Factor Binding Site Prediction Challenge datasets. The results show that DeepGRN achieves higher unified scores in 6 of 13 targets than any of the top four methods in the DREAM challenge. We also demonstrate that the attention weights learned by the model are correlated with potential informative inputs, such as DNase-Seq coverage and motifs, which provide possible explanations for the predictive improvements in DeepGRN. Conclusions DeepGRN can automatically and effectively predict transcription factor binding sites from DNA sequences and DNase-Seq coverage. Furthermore, the visualization techniques we developed for the attention modules help to interpret how critical patterns from different types of input features are recognized by our model.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2023

Method to Investigate Cognitive Aging Effects in Nuclear Operations Using the Rancor Microworld Simulator

Many nuclear power plant (NPP) operators are close to, or at retirement age. Since NPP operators are responsible for tasks that engage different and complex cognitive abilities, human factors researchers recently called for the need to examine cognitive aging effects and potential interactions with modernized control rooms. One way control rooms are being modernized is by replacing paper-based procedures with computer-based procedures (CBPs). This paper outlines a method for testing preference and usability of three types of CBPs as a function of age, in simulated NPP operations. The Rancor Microworld Simulator will be used, which mimics an NPP control room, allowing novices to learn to perform operator tasks quickly. The experiment will have two independent variables: age (young and old) and CBP-type (Type 1, Type 2, and Type 3). The three types of CBPs vary in levels of embedded instrumentation and controls. Adults aged 18–25 years (young group) and =60 years (older group) will be recruited from the general population. The dependent variables will be preference and usability metrics via survey and simulator logs. All participants will perform two scenario types (startup and loss of feedwater operations) and will be randomly assigned to one type of CBP to guide them through the scenario. Analyses of variance (ANOVAs) will be used to determine whether there is a main effect of age and any age x CBP-type interactions on the preference and usability dependent variables.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2020

Experiments at Sandia to Measure the Effect of Temperature on Critical Systems

Estimation of the uncertainty in a critical experiment attributable to uncertainties in the measured experiment temperature is done by calculating the variation of the eigenvalue of a benchmark configuration as a function of temperature. In the low-enriched water-moderated critical experiments performed at Sandia, this is done by 1) estimating the effects of changing the water temperature while holding the UO 2 fuel temperature constant, 2) estimating the effects of changing the UO 2 temperature while holding the water temperature constant, and 3) combining the two results. This assumes that the two effects are separable. The results of such an analysis are nonintuitive and need experimental verification. Critical experiments are being planned at Sandia National Laboratories (Sandia) to measure the effect of temperature on critical systems and will serve to test the methods used in estimating the temperature effects in critical experiments.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Caribbean deepwater snappers: Application of the bomb radiocarbon age estimation validation in understanding aspects of ecology and life history

Reef fishes have been utilized as food fish throughout the U.S. Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico waters for centuries, with increasing fishing effort in recent decades. As a result, many species have experienced declines in landings, including deepwater snappers such as queen snapper Etelis oculatus and blackfin snapper Lutjanus buccanella . However, little to no peer-reviewed published research exists on basic life history parameters for either species. Confirming the accuracy of an age estimation method for a fish species is essential for ensuring sustainable fisheries management. This is because in the assessment of fisheries species population age-based parameters, including longevity, age at sexual maturity, growth rate, mortality, age-specific reproductive output, and lifetime reproductive output, are important in understanding overall life history strategies of managed stocks. The past stock assessment on U.S. Caribbean queen snapper utilized an estimated longevity of 8 y, derived from length frequencies for fish from St. Lucia. Blackfin snapper has an estimated longevity of 27 y based on a relatively small study from offshore waters of the southeastern U.S. The focus of our investigation was to estimate maximum longevity of two data-poor species in the U.S. Caribbean. The accuracy of ageing methods was tested via bomb radiocarbon age estimation validation and effects of depth on Δ 14 C in otolith cores and eye lens core values were examined. Results from our work indicate a maximum validated age of 45 y for queen snapper, and 43 y for blackfin snapper. Our findings indicate queen snapper and blackfin snapper are long-lived (> 40 y). The resulting Δ 14 C comparison between eye lens cores and otolith cores has important implications for the study of age validation, specifically when deepwater species are involved.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

A comprehensive guide to CAN IDS data and introduction of the ROAD dataset

Although ubiquitous in modern vehicles, Controller Area Networks (CANs) lack basic security properties and are easily exploitable. A rapidly growing field of CAN security research has emerged that seeks to detect intrusions or anomalies on CANs. Producing vehicular CAN data with a variety of intrusions is a difficult task for most researchers as it requires expensive assets and deep expertise. To illuminate this task, we introduce the first comprehensive guide to the existing open CAN intrusion detection system (IDS) datasets. We categorize attacks on CANs including fabrication (adding frames, e.g., flooding or targeting and ID), suspension (removing an ID’s frames), and masquerade attacks (spoofed frames sent in lieu of suspended ones). We provide a quality analysis of each dataset; an enumeration of each datasets’ attacks, benefits, and drawbacks; categorization as real vs. simulated CAN data and real vs. simulated attacks; whether the data is raw CAN data or signal-translated; number of vehicles/CANs; quantity in terms of time; and finally a suggested use case of each dataset. State-of-the-art public CAN IDS datasets are limited to real fabrication (simple message injection) attacks and simulated attacks often in synthetic data, lacking fidelity. In general, the physical effects of attacks on the vehicle are not verified in the available datasets. Only one dataset provides signal-translated data but is missing a corresponding “raw” binary version. This issue pigeon-holes CAN IDS research into testing on limited and often inappropriate data (usually with attacks that are too easily detectable to truly test the method). The scarcity of appropriate data has stymied comparability and reproducibility of results for researchers. As our primary contribution, we present the Real ORNL Automotive Dynamometer (ROAD) CAN IDS dataset, consisting of over 3.5 hours of one vehicle’s CAN data. ROAD contains ambient data recorded during a diverse set of activities, and attacks of increasing stealth with multiple variants and instances of real (i.e. non-simulated) fuzzing, fabrication, unique advanced attacks, and simulated masquerade attacks. To facilitate a benchmark for CAN IDS methods that require signal-translated inputs, we also provide the signal time series format for many of the CAN captures. Our contributions aim to facilitate appropriate benchmarking and needed comparability in the CAN IDS research field.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2026

A scalable variational method for estimating the latent infection-rate field of an outbreak

In this paper, we explore whether the infection-rate of a disease can serve as a robust monitoring variable in epidemiological surveillance algorithms. The infection-rate is dependent on population mixing patterns that do not vary erratically day-to-day; in contrast, daily case-counts used in contemporary surveillance algorithms are corrupted by reporting errors. The technical challenge lies in estimating the latent infection-rate from case-counts. Here we devise a Bayesian method to estimate the infection-rate across multiple adjoining areal units, and then use it, via an anomaly detector, to discern a change in epidemiological dynamics. We extend an existing model for estimating the infection-rate in an areal unit by incorporating a Markov random field model, so that we may estimate infection-rates across multiple areal units, while preserving spatial correlations observed in the epidemiological dynamics. To carry out the high-dimensional Bayesian inverse problem, we develop an implementation of mean-field variational inference specific to the infection model and integrate it with the random field model to incorporate correlations across counties. The method is tested on estimating the COVID-19 infection-rates across all 33 counties in New Mexico using data from the summer of 2020, and then employing them to detect the arrival of the Fall 2020 COVID-19 wave. We perform the detection using a temporal algorithm that is applied county-by-county. We also show how the infection-rate field can be used to cluster counties with similar epidemiological dynamics.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Dynamical model for social distancing in the U.S. during the COVID-19 epidemic

Social distancing has led to a “flattening of the curve” in many states across the U.S. This is part of a novel, massive, global social experiment which has served to mitigate the COVID-19 pandemic in the absence of a vaccine or effective anti-viral drugs. Hence it is important to be able to forecast hospitalizations reasonably accurately. We propose on phenomenological grounds a random walk/generalized diffusion equation which incorporates the effect of social distancing to describe the temporal evolution of the probability of having a given number of hospitalizations. The probability density function is log-normal in the number of hospitalizations, which is useful in describing pandemics where the number of hospitalizations is very high. We used this insight and data to make forecasts for states using Monte Carlo methods. Back testing validates our approach, which yields good results about a week into the future. States are beginning to reopen at the time of submission of this paper and our forecasts indicate possible precursors of increased hospitalizations. However, the trends we forecast for hospitalizations as well as infections thus far show moderate growth. Additionally we studied the reproducibility in New York (Italian strain) and California (Wuhan strain). We find that even if there is a difference in the transmission of the two strains, social distancing has been able to control the progression of COVID 19.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗