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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

SIRIUS: Simulation Infrastructure for Research on Interoperating Unmanned Systems

This paper presents the Simulation Infrastructure for Research on Interoperating Unmanned Systems (SIRIUS), a research framework for simulation and analysis of future conceptual Urban Air Mobility (UAM) operations. SIRIUS is being developed under the auspices of the NASA Air Traffic Management eXploration project, UAM subproject (ATM-X UAM). SIRIUS provides an intuitive, highly configurable graphical user interface to design complex traffic scenarios and airspace configurations representative of conceptual UAM operations. Aircraft simulated with SIRIUS can be equipped with flight-tested capabilities for detect and avoid (DAA), geofencing, distributed merging and spacing, path conformance, and path planning while executing time-constrained, 4D trajectories generated by a UAM ground operations system. Central to the design of the SIRIUS simulation framework is the capability to evaluate the integration and interoperability of ground-based separation services (e.g., strategic separation) with extended DAA functionality (e.g., path monitoring, separation provision, merging and spacing, etc.) The simulation environment also supports modelling of wind, navigation, and sensor uncertainties, as well as communication delays. SIRIUS enables distributed simulation of large-scale scenarios. An interactive graphical analysis capability helps isolate, visualize, and compare relevant vehicle state data and widely used measures of performance metrics across multiple scenarios.

Andrew Peters↗
DOE OSTI2023

Learning heterogeneous reaction kinetics from X-ray movies pixel-by-pixel

Reaction rates at spatially heterogeneous, unstable interfaces are notoriously difficult to quantify, yet are essential in engineering many chemical systems, such as batteries 1 and electrocatalysts 2. Experimental characterizations of such materials by operando microscopy produce rich image datasets 3–6, but data-driven methods to learn physics from these images are still lacking because of the complex coupling of reaction kinetics, surface chemistry and phase separation 7. Here we show that heterogeneous reaction kinetics can be learned from in situ scanning transmission X-ray microscopy (STXM) images of carbon-coated lithium iron phosphate (LFP) nanoparticles. Combining a large dataset of STXM images with a thermodynamically consistent electrochemical phase-field model, partial differential equation (PDE)-constrained optimization and uncertainty quantification, we extract the free-energy landscape and reaction kinetics and verify their consistency with theoretical models. We also simultaneously learn the spatial heterogeneity of the reaction rate, which closely matches the carbon-coating thickness profiles obtained through Auger electron microscopy (AEM). Across 180,000 image pixels, the mean discrepancy with the learned model is remarkably small (<7%) and comparable with experimental noise. Our results open the possibility of learning nonequilibrium material properties beyond the reach of traditional experimental methods and offer a new non-destructive technique for characterizing and optimizing heterogeneous reactive surfaces.

Chueh, William↗
DOE OSTI2023

Kernel-based global sensitivity analysis obtained from a single data set

Results from global sensitivity analysis (GSA) often guide the understanding of complicated input–output systems. Kernel-based GSA methods have recently been proposed for their capability of treating a broad scope of complex systems. In this paper, we develop a new set of kernel GSA tools when only a single set of input–output data is available. Three key advances are made: (1) A new numerical estimator is proposed that demonstrates an empirical improvement over previous procedures. (2) A computational method for generating inner statistical functions from a single data set is presented. (3) A theoretical extension is made to define conditional sensitivity indices, which reveal the degree that the inputs carry shared information about the output when inherent input–input correlations are present. Utilizing these conditional sensitivity indices, a decomposition is derived for the output uncertainty based on what is called the optimal learning sequence of the input variables, which remains consistent when correlations exist between the input variables. Further, while these advances cover a range of GSA subjects, a common single data set numerical solution is provided by a technique known as the conditional mean embedding of distributions. The new methodology is implemented on benchmark systems to demonstrate the provided insights.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Modular Autonomous Experimentation for Biological Applications (Full Report)

The Modular Autonomous Research System (MARS) was developed to address the pressing need for faster, more reliable, and more adaptable scientific discovery. Traditional experimentation is limited by manual labor, long cycle times, and fragmented data streams, which constrain the ability to explore complex chemical and materials design spaces. To overcome these limitations, we created an integrated, modular platform that combines laboratory robotics, diverse measurement instruments, and a central data infrastructure with artificial intelligence–driven decision-making. The system links liquid handling robots, robotic arms, and optical plate readers into a closed loop where experiments are executed automatically, data is analyzed in real time, and subsequent experimental conditions are adaptively chosen to maximize information gain. Over the course of the project, MARS was validated on two primary test cases—spectroscopic metal–ligand binding assays and peptide-directed mineralization—which highlighted the system’s ability to handle uncertainty and variability in experimental measurements. To further demonstrate modularity and extensibility, we also established additional testbeds in electrochemistry for catalyst discovery and electrolyte formulation for advanced batteries. The results show that MARS can reliably conduct autonomous campaigns with minimal human intervention, adapt to distinct scientific domains, and provide a scalable model for future self-driving laboratories. This work establishes new capabilities for modular, uncertainty-aware automation and directly supports the need for advanced, data-driven research platforms capable of accelerating discovery across a wide range of scientific and national security missions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1994

Acquisition and processing of data for isotope-ratio-monitoring mass spectrometry

Methods are described for continuous monitoring of signals required for precise analyses of 13C, 18O, and 15N in gas streams containing varying quantities of CO2 and N2. The quantitative resolution (i.e. maximum performance in the absence of random errors) of these methods is adequate for determination of isotope ratios with an uncertainty of one part in 10(5); the precision actually obtained is often better than one part in 10(4). This report describes data-processing operations including definition of beginning and ending points of chromatographic peaks and quantitation of background levels, allowance for effects of chromatographic separation of isotopically substituted species, integration of signals related to specific masses, correction for effects of mass discrimination, recognition of drifts in mass spectrometer performance, and calculation of isotopic delta values. Characteristics of a system allowing off-line revision of parameters used in data reduction are described and an algorithm for identification of background levels in complex chromatograms is outlined. Effects of imperfect chromatographic resolution are demonstrated and discussed and an approach to deconvolution of signals from coeluting substances described.

NASA Discipline Exobiology↗
DOE OSTI2023

Sensitivity analysis of numerical modeling input parameters on floating offshore wind turbine loads

Abstract. Floating wind turbines must withstand a unique and challenging set of loads from the wind and ocean environment. To de-risk development, accurate predictions of these loads are necessary. Uncertainty in modeling predictions leads to larger required safety factors, increasing project costs and the levelized cost of energy. Complex aero-hydro-elastic modeling tools use many input parameters to represent the wind, waves, current, aerodynamic loads, hydrodynamic loads, and structural properties. It is helpful to understand which of these parameters ultimately drives a design. In this work, an ultimate and fatigue-proxy load sensitivity analysis was performed with 35 different input parameters, using an elementary effects approach to identify the most influential parameters for a case study involving the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) 5 MW baseline wind turbine atop the OC4-DeepCwind semisubmersible during normal operation. The importance of each parameter was evaluated using 14 response quantities of interest across three operational wind speed conditions. The study concludes that turbulent wind velocity standard deviation is the parameter with the strongest sensitivity; this value is important not just for turbine loads, but also for the global system response. The system center of mass in the wind direction is found to have the highest impact on the system rotation and tower loads. The current velocity is found to be the most dominating parameter for the system global motion and consequently the mooring loads. All tested wind turbulence parameters in addition to the standard deviation are also found to be influential. Wave characteristics are influential for some fatigue-proxy loading but do not significantly impact the extreme ultimate loads in these operational load cases. The required number of random seeds for stochastic environmental conditions is considered to ensure that the sensitivities are due to the input parameters and not due to the seed. The required number of analysis points in the parameter space is identified so that the conclusions represent a global sensitivity. The results are specific to the platform, turbine, and choice of parameter ranges, but the demonstrated approach can be applied widely to guide focus in parameter uncertainty.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Digital camera imagery for vegetation phenology, Seward Peninsula, Alaska, 2022-2023

Timelapse camera images from Council Mile Marker (MM) 71, Kougarok MM 64, Kougarok Fire Complex (KFC), and Teller MM 27 NGEE-Arctic field sites on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska, captured from July 2022 to July 2023. Eight Wingscape Timelapse Pro cameras, and thirty-one Power-interval Camera Automation Modules (PiCAMs) designed by Brookhaven National Laboratory?s Terrestrial Ecosystem Science and Technology (TEST) group were deployed targeting patches of low and tall shrubs (including Alnus sp. and Salix sp.) and general vegetation and landscape views. Images from Wingscape cameras were recorded at hourly intervals from 11 AM to 2 PM, and images from PiCAMs were recorded at 5 hourly intervals from 12 AM to 8 PM, continuously for 12 months and capture vegetation phenology, snow accumulation and snow melt events. This data package includes images (*.jpg), organized by site and camera ID, and metadata with details of the cameras used, number of images recorded, start and end dates, GPS locations and example fields of view. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2022

A SUBLIME 3D Model for Cometary Coma Emission: The Hypervolatile-rich Comet C/2016 R2 (PanSTARRS)

The coma of comet C/2016 R2 (PanSTARRS) is one of the most chemically peculiar ever observed, in particular due to its extremely high CO/H2O and N(+2)/H2O ratios, and unusual trace volatile abundances. However, the complex shape of its CO emission lines, as well as uncertainties in the coma structure and excitation, has lead to ambiguities in the total CO production rate. We performed high-resolution, spatially, spectrally, and temporally resolved CO observations using the James Clerk Maxwell Telescope and Submillimeter Array to elucidate the outgassing behavior of C/2016 R2. Results are analyzed using a new, time-dependent, three-dimensional radiative transfer code (SUBlimating gases in LIME; SUBLIME, based on the open-source version of the LIne Modeling Engine), incorporating for the first time, accurate state-to-state collisional rate coefficients for the CO–CO system. The total CO production rate was found to be in the range of (3.8 − 7.6) × 10^(28) per s between 2018 January 13 and February 1 (at r(H) = 2.8–2.9 au), with a mean value of (5.3 ± 0.6) × 10^(28) per s. The emission is concentrated in a near-sunward jet, with a half-opening angle of ∼62° and an outflow velocity of 0.51 ± 0.01 km/s, compared to 0.25 ± 0.01 km/s in the ambient (and nightside) coma. Evidence was also found for an extended source of CO emission, possibly due to icy grain sublimation around 1.2 × 10^(5) km from the nucleus. Based on the coma molecular abundances, we propose that the nucleus ices of C/2016 R2 can be divided into a rapidly sublimating apolar phase, rich in CO, CO2, N2, and CH3OH, and a predominantly frozen (or less abundant), polar phase containing more H2O, CH4, H2CO, and HCN.

Martin Andrew Cordiner↗
DOE OSTI2021

Occupancy-Driven Stochastic Decision Framework for Ranking Commercial Building Loads

For effective integration of building operations into the evolving demand response programs of the power grid, real-time decisions concerning the use of building appliances for grid services must excel on multiple criteria, ranging from the added value to occupants' comfort to the quality of the grid services. In this paper, we present a data-driven stochastic decision-support framework to dynamically rank load control alternatives in a commercial building, addressing the needs of multiple decision criteria (e.g. occupant comfort, grid service quality) under uncertainties in occupancy patterns. We adopt a stochastic multi-criteria decision algorithm recently applied to prioritize residential on/off loads, and extend it to i) consider complex load control decisions (e.g. dimming of lights, changing zone temperature set-points) in a commercial building; and ii) systematically integrate zonal occupancy patterns to better identify short-term (and time-varying) opportunities for grid service participation. We evaluate the performance of the proposed framework for curtailment of air-conditioning, lighting, and plug-loads in a multi-zone commercial office building for a range of design choices. With the help of a prototype system that integrates an interactive \textit{Data Analytics and Visualization} frontend we demonstrate a way for the building operators to monitor and change in real-time the available flexibility in energy consumption and to develop trust in the decision recommendations by interpreting the rationale behind the ranking.

Jain, Milan↗
DOE OSTI2025

Assessing the impact of climate change on rainfall-triggered landslides: a case study in California

Landslides are widespread natural hazards which take a heavy toll on lives, property, and infrastructure each year. In January 2023 and 2024, widespread landslides occurred in California as a result of extreme winter precipitation. Estimating the regional evolution of landslide hazard in a changing climate is essential for adaptation planning and risk mitigation efforts. The complex effects of climate change on landslide hazard, however, are poorly understood. Here, we use climate and landslide observations to develop a novel data-driven approach for landslide susceptibility assessment under historical and future climate conditions. We apply this framework to investigate the evolution of landslide susceptibility in California and its impacts on the roadway system based on downscaled climate projections under moderate and high greenhouse gas emission scenarios. On average, the results indicate an increase in landslide susceptibility through 2100 in regions where historical susceptibility is moderate to very high. Although the spatio-temporal variations in landslide susceptibility are sensitive to climate model uncertainties in predicting extreme rainfall, the direst impacts are largely circumvented in lower emission scenarios.

Climate Change↗
DOE OSTI2023

A comparison of machine learning surrogate models of street-scale flooding in Norfolk, Virginia

Low-lying coastal cities, exemplified by Norfolk, Virginia, face the challenge of street flooding caused by rainfall and tides, which strain transportation and sewer systems and can lead to personal and property damage. While high-fidelity, physics-based simulations provide accurate predictions of urban pluvial flooding, their computational complexity renders them unsuitable for real-time applications. Using data from Norfolk rainfall events between 2016 and 2018, this study compares the performance of a previous surrogate model based on a random forest algorithm with two deep learning models: Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU). The comparison of deep learning to the random forest algorithm is motivated by the desire to utilize a machine learning architecture that allows for the future inclusion of common uncertainty quantification techniques and the effective integration of relevant, multi-modal features.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Shallow Cumulus Properties as Captured by Adiabatic Fraction in High-Resolution LES Simulations

Abstract Shallow convective clouds are important players in Earth’s energy budget and hydrological cycle, and are abundant in the tropical and subtropical belts. They greatly contribute to the uncertainty in climate predictions due to their unresolved, complex processes that include coupling between the dynamics and microphysics. Analysis of cloud structure can be simplified by considering cloud motions as a combination of moist adiabatic motions like adiabatic updrafts and turbulent motions leading to deviation from adiabaticity. In this work, we study the sizes and occurrence of adiabatic regions in shallow cumulus clouds during their growth and mature stages, and use the adiabatic fraction (AF) as a continuous metric to describe cloud processes and properties from the core to the edge. To do so, we simulate isolated trade wind cumulus clouds of different sizes using the System of Atmospheric Modeling (SAM) model in high resolution (10 m) with the Hebrew University spectral bin microphysics (SBM). The fine features in the clouds’ dynamics and microphysics, including small near-adiabatic volumes and a thin transition zone at the edge of the cloud (∼20–40 m in width), are captured. The AF is shown to be an efficient measure for analyzing cloud properties and key processes determining the droplet-size distribution formation and shape during the cloud evolution. Physical processes governing the properties of droplet size distributions at different cloud regions (e.g., core, edge) are analyzed in relation to AF. Significance Statement 1) This study investigates the evolution of cumulus clouds (Cu) using a 10-m-resolution LES model with spectral bin microphysics. 2) The study improves the understanding of the mutual effects of adiabatic updrafts and lateral entrainment and mixing. 3) The study demonstrates the existence of an adiabatic core in nonprecipitating Cu. 4) Shapes of the droplet size distributions are closely related to the adiabatic fraction values. 5) Utilization of high resolution reveals the existence of physically significant small features in the cloud structure, such as a narrow cloud interface zone and small adiabatic volumes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Development of Multiresolution Capabilities for the Holistic Energy Resource Optimization Network (HERON) tool A progress update

INL researchers work on technoeconomic analyses for integrated energy systems (IES) using the Framework for Optimization of ResourCes and Economics (FORCE). Within FORCE, researchers use the Holistic Energy Resource Optimization Network (HERON) tool to conduct optimization of grid portfolios under uncertain market conditions. These optimizations determine optimal capacities for all IES components and strategies for resource dispatch which maximize some economic metric (e.g., net present value). Resource dispatch occurs on finer timescales (typically hours) and thus are asked to respond to a given time series (e.g. hourly load demand profiles for a grid, or pre-determined electricity prices). Volatile and complex bidding dynamics as well as poorly forecasted weather events within deregulated markets add uncertainty to the time series; FORCE can address this uncertainty by training a reduced order model on historical time series and generate unique synthetic time series which represent individual scenarios or realizations of the market. The IES configuration can be simulated under these different sampled realizations and a stochastic optimization is conducted which optimizes the expected value of the desired economic metric. The training of a synthetic time series generator is limited by the chosen time resolution; dynamics can occur on different time scales. Seasonal demand trends can dominate faster dynamical events (such as power outages from certain sectors or severe weather events) which might not get captured correctly by the trained model. In this report, we investigate different ways of addressing the training and generation of time series on multiple time scales using three main algorithms: wavelet decomposition, dynamic mode decomposition, and generative adversarial networks for time series. We demonstrate a time series analysis that yields information on not just the frequency space but also temporal space: where a fast Fourier transform can provide what frequencies dominate, the new algorithms can provide when the frequencies dominate as well. These analyses can help improve IES optimization by allowing researchers to couple simulations at different timescales when it is most needed - seasonal, day-ahead, and real time optimization - with greater computational efficiency. Future work will include implementation of a subset of the proposed algorithms into the FORCE toolset and application of these analyses into multiple timescale optimization.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
NASA NTRS2015

Mars Ascent Vehicle-First Stage Motor

This project is development effort of a first stage solid motor based on a two-stage solid motor Mars Ascent Vehicle (MAV) design for the robotic Mars Sample Return (MSR) mission (fig. 1). The MSR MAV has been studied for decades and multiple concepts have been shown to meet the mission objectives as posed.1 However, there remains significant uncertainty with the MAV requirements. The sample container and sample cache itself is immature. Additionally, MAV-specific requirements ranging from full three-axis controlled and strict communication requirements to minimal capability concepts are still under consideration. Given the maturity of the overall mission requirements, the MAV has been limited to a large number of parametric analyses and paper studies. Recently, a Jet Propulsion Laboratory study highlighted the flexibility of a two-stage solid motor concept. The MAV itself is driven by the constraints of the Entry, Decent, and Landing (EDL) system. Within the EDL constraints, there is a range of MAV options ranging in complexity from simple spun upper stage options to higher capability three-axis controlled solutions. There are also options to trade the ratio of mission (Delta)V between the first and second stage. Finally, sensitivity studies also indicated that solid motors with a high percentage of off-load flexability only had minor impact on the total system mass over a single point design optimized motor. This flexibility in the first stage motor has allowed NASA to mature the design of the motor beyond parametric analyses and start to address known design challenges of the motor.

Dankanich, John↗
DOE OSTI2020

Effects of cluster expansion on the locations of phase transition boundary as a first step to quantify uncertainty in first principles statistical mechanics framework

Predicting phase diagrams from first principle calculations eliminates the need of tedious experimental trials and errors. Fully automating first principle phase diagram calculations without any sort of human intervention has been a long daunting task and troubling scientific communities for decades. This grand problem remains not fully resolved, largely due to the vastly high-dimensional parameter space associated with density functional theory, cluster expansion, lattice Monte Carlo, and the substantial uncertainty propagating through a set of complex simulations. As a first step to tackle this grand problem, we reported a first demonstration of how sensitive phase boundary locations can be to various cluster expansion fittings and input DFT training data. To the best knowledge of the authors, this study reported the first ever attempt to quantify uncertainty in first principles statistical mechanics framework. In addition, a semi-automated phase transition detection algorithm has been devised in this paper to deal with the associated statistical errors and uncertainties from Monte Carlo method and its predecessor DFT calculations and cluster expansions. This algorithm has been applied in a classical cluster expansion Mg-Cd binary alloy system to detect phase transitions at various locations of phase diagram using different cluster expansions to demonstrate its predictive power and quantify uncertainties. The results suggested that using Chebyshev basis function shifted the transition locations toward the dilute solid solution phase and expanded the phase stability of concentrated ordered phases to wider composition range. The addition of perturbed defect configurations into training data set lowered the order-disorder transition temperature to be away from true transition temperature, suggesting the transition nature is indeed configurational disorder dominated rather than defect assisted. Finally, we found that the weighting has negligible effect on the transition locations, except for the case of using Chebyshev basis function to fit all non-weighted configurations that can be susceptible to Monte Carlo sampling hysteresis.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Multiclass Flight Anomaly Detection Using Sensor Fusion Based on Dempster-Shafer Theory

As aviation systems in commercial operations continue to grow in complexity, the anomalies exhibited by these systems become more elaborate and difficult to detect. To address the challenge of detecting these complex anomalies, deep learning models have been used extensively in aviation anomaly detection studies, at the expense of end-user interpretability. Aiming to maintain the same level of interpretability as traditional threshold-exceedance methods, we continue our development of prediction models using ordinal patterns and their distributions throughout the flight. Specifically, this study extends our work into multiclass anomaly detection using sensor fusion based on Dempster-Shafer theory (DST), a second-order probability theory used to combine information from different sources of evidence. Our approach uses DST toreduce the uncertainty in the class predictions of an ensemble of classifiers. These classifiers rely on the similarity between flight data and class templates to make a prediction of the state of the aircraft. Our approach aims to take advantage of simple models trained on interpretable features (ordinal patterns) to correctly predict an anomaly and identify the flight dynamics linked to the anomaly. Our results show an improvement when using DST-based sensor fusion over simple majority voting. Additionally, our results provide insight into aircraft states linked to rare high-risk anomalies.

Risk detection↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Architecture Options for Navigation in Cislunar Space for Human Landing System Vehicles

As part of architecture studies and insight analysis focused on requirements development into Human Landing System lunar architecture designs, multiple studies are underway to understand the sensitivities and options for achieving high precision landing on the lunar surface. The baseline approach utilizes a combination of multiple sensors to capture autonomous state observations of the lander with respect to the lunar surface. These systems are typically constrained in terms of operational altitudes by parameters such as onboard map size, camera focus, or sensor transmitted power (for altimeter observations). While these sensor suites do enable high precision landing, they are typically very complex and expensive. For a human-rated vehicle, fault detection algorithms are needed in addition to redundant sensors drive additional design complexity. Conversely, for these early missions, mass performance is key, so extended analysis is required to identify numbers of sensors, their ideal placement, and integration algorithms. A key part of this analysis is to help identify key sensor suites and options to help alleviate this design tension. An alternate approach is to take advantage and build out in-situ assets to allow for GPS-like navigation within the lunar regime through the use of navigation references or beacons. This can be achieved through the integration of navigation services into potential relays and pre-placed lunar surface assets. This research focuses on the capability of this infrastructure to support navigation in all areas of cislunar space such as: approach to the moon, in orbit around the moon, and ascent/descent operations to the surface. An augmented state linear covariance analysis (LinCov) and navigation state covariance analysis (NavCov) tools were used to assess a variety of navigation reference locations and how they can support vehicle operations through both understanding of state uncertainties and trajectory dispersions. This research helps to supplement existing studies focused on communication link analysis by providing additional insight into specific vehicle operational scenarios that are tied closely to potential Human Landing System scenarios. Key aspect of this analysis focus on the sensitivity to state knowledge of the references, the accuracy of inter-asset measurements, and placement in support of the various scenarios.

Evan J Anzalone↗
DOE OSTI2024

FORCE Update 2024

The Framework for Optimization of Resources and Economics (FORCE) tool suite is the U.S. Department of Energy’s Nuclear Integrated Energy Systems (IES) Program flagship tool suite for technoeconomic IES analysis of IES. This tool suite is useful for analysis designed to evaluate and improve the technoeconomics of energy production systems, particularly for systems including nuclear technology. In this report, we document the development activity for the FORCE tool suite to extend its capabilities as performed during fiscal year 2024. In addition to reliability and accessibility, capability is one of the three standards guiding the development of the FORCE tool suite and the software codes that are its constituent parts. Extending the capabilities of the FORCE tool suite allows analysis both within the IES program as well as industry, university, and laboratory partners to perform analysis with more accuracy, insight, and impactful narrative. Four areas of capability development were the focus of activity this year: economic parameter uncertainty quantification, multiresolution analysis, components-to-optimization workflow automation, and statespace construction workflows for real-time optimal control. In economic parameter uncertainty quantification, the ability of HERON to capture risk due to scenarios (weather and energy demand uncertainty) was expanded to also include uncertainties in financial parameters such as capital cost or operation and maintenance costs. By including these sources of uncertainty, which are sometimes very large compared with scenario uncertainty, HERON is better able to capture the risk posed by investment in various IES technology. Because of this, analysts can also consider the reduction in risks that can be realized by choice of some technologies. In multiresolution analysis, development activity extended on work completed previously. In fiscal year 2023, methods for decomposing time series signals, such as demand, solar and wind availability, and price profiles, were analyzed and down-selected to those most effective at splitting signals into different resolutions. These resolutions allow considering the influence of different energy demand and supply behaviors across different time scales. For example, energy demand might be divided into seasonal, weekly, and hourly profiles. In fiscal year 2024, this preliminary work was extended and implemented within the Risk Analysis Virtual Environment (RAVEN) risk and uncertainty analysis platform, which is used throughout the FORCE framework. This development of the “multi-resolution time series analysis” (MR-TSA) module in RAVEN allows training synthetic history generators on complex time series. These synthetic history generators can then be used in HERON for generating scenarios that represent possible market and weather scenarios that can be analyzed on different time scales. We envision completing this work in the future, implementing multiresolution dispatch optimization strategies that can make the most beneficial use of these stratified time histories. In components-to-optimization workflow development, workflows for translating user inputs of components into algorithms for algebraic optimization were selected and implemented. Similar algorithms within the Holistic Energy Resource Optimization Network (HERON) were separated from the main code base of HERON and gathered with the components-to-optimization workflows in the new Dispatch Optimization Variable Engine (DOVE) software library. This modularization allows FORCE users to analyze dispatch optimization and energy system duty cycles independently of HERON, which previously was a burdensome task. Additionally, these dispatch optimization algorithms, set up in an independent library, can now be used across all software applications within FORCE, especially including the real-time optimal control software Optimization of Real-time Capacity Allocation (ORCA). Allowing FORCE software to share dispatch optimization algorithms within a single library allows for improved software maintenance and reliability. In statespace characterization workflow development, alternative workflows for optimizing dispatch with additional technical accuracy was the focus, particularly to improve the real-time optimization decision making in ORCA. Using algorithms and workflows initially developed for the Feasible Actuator Range Modifier (FARM), workflows for determining the statespace representation of IES were identified and demonstrated. The resulting dispatch optimization required a more robust optimization algorithm than that originally used in HERON (and moved to DOVE), which required adding an alternate workflow to DOVE that can more accurately match the behavior of physical systems using a partial differential equation representation. In conclusion, capability developments in the FORCE tool suite in fiscal year 2024 have improved the ability of the FORCE tool suite to perform

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗