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Risk-Aware Measurement Synchronization and Recovery for DSSE With Heterogeneous Data Sources

Power distribution systems are increasingly integrating heterogeneous sensors with varying data reporting rates and types, which pose challenges to achieving observability at the desired temporal resolution of distribution system state estimation (DSSE). Multisensor failures caused by extreme events exacerbate these issues, introducing substantial uncertainties into DSSE. This article proposes a novel solution to these challenges by ensuring high-resolution system observability despite heterogeneous data sources and multisensor failures. First, a deep learning architecture combining long short-term memory (LSTM) and graph convolutional network (GCN) is employed to synchronize meters with different reporting rates, aiming to achieve system observability. A random-walk-model-based approach is introduced to generate pseudo-measurements while properly characterizing their uncertainties under multisensor failures. Finally, a disaster-risk-informed observability metric (RiOM) is defined to quantify the uncertainty associated with state estimation results. The proposed framework offers deeper insights into the system observability on the fly compared with conventional analysis. The effectiveness of the framework is demonstrated on an IEEE standard test case and a large-scale real-world distribution feeder in mid-Minnesota in the U.S.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Forecasting Solar Photovoltaic Power Production: A Comprehensive Review and Innovative Data-Driven Modeling Framework

The intermittent and stochastic nature of Renewable Energy Sources (RESs) necessitates accurate power production prediction for effective scheduling and grid management. This paper presents a comprehensive review conducted with reference to a pioneering, comprehensive, and data-driven framework proposed for solar Photovoltaic (PV) power generation prediction. The systematic and integrating framework comprises three main phases carried out by seven main comprehensive modules for addressing numerous practical difficulties of the prediction task: phase I handles the aspects related to data acquisition (module 1) and manipulation (module 2) in preparation for the development of the prediction scheme; phase II tackles the aspects associated with the development of the prediction model (module 3) and the assessment of its accuracy (module 4), including the quantification of the uncertainty (module 5); and phase III evolves towards enhancing the prediction accuracy by incorporating aspects of context change detection (module 6) and incremental learning when new data become available (module 7). This framework adeptly addresses all facets of solar PV power production prediction, bridging existing gaps and offering a comprehensive solution to inherent challenges. By seamlessly integrating these elements, our approach stands as a robust and versatile tool for enhancing the precision of solar PV power prediction in real-world applications.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Huge ensembles – Part 1: Design of ensemble weather forecasts using spherical Fourier neural operators

Abstract. Simulating low-likelihood high-impact extreme weather events in a warming world is a significant and challenging task for current ensemble forecasting systems. While these systems presently use up to 100 members, larger ensembles could enrich the sampling of internal variability. They may capture the long tails associated with climate hazards better than traditional ensemble sizes. Due to computational constraints, it is infeasible to generate huge ensembles (comprised of 1000–10 000 members) with traditional, physics-based numerical models. In this two-part paper, we replace traditional numerical simulations with machine learning (ML) to generate hindcasts of huge ensembles. In Part 1, we construct an ensemble weather forecasting system based on spherical Fourier neural operators (SFNOs), and we discuss important design decisions for constructing such an ensemble. The ensemble represents model uncertainty through perturbed-parameter techniques, and it represents initial condition uncertainty through bred vectors, which sample the fastest-growing modes of the forecast. Using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) as a baseline, we develop an evaluation pipeline composed of mean, spectral, and extreme diagnostics. With large-scale, distributed SFNOs with 1.1 billion learned parameters, we achieve calibrated probabilistic forecasts. As the trajectories of the individual members diverge, the ML ensemble mean spectra degrade with lead time, consistent with physical expectations. However, the individual ensemble members' spectra stay constant with lead time. Therefore, these members simulate realistic weather states during the rollout, and the ML ensemble passes a crucial spectral test in the literature. The IFS and ML ensembles have similar extreme forecast indices, and we show that the ML extreme weather forecasts are reliable and discriminating. These diagnostics ensure that the ensemble can reliably simulate the time evolution of the atmosphere, including low-likelihood high-impact extremes. In Part 2, we generate a huge ensemble initialized each day in summer 2023, and we characterize the simulations of extremes.

Mahesh, Ankur↗

Sparse distributed memory overview

The Sparse Distributed Memory (SDM) project is investigating the theory and applications of massively parallel computing architecture, called sparse distributed memory, that will support the storage and retrieval of sensory and motor patterns characteristic of autonomous systems. The immediate objectives of the project are centered in studies of the memory itself and in the use of the memory to solve problems in speech, vision, and robotics. Investigation of methods for encoding sensory data is an important part of the research. Examples of NASA missions that may benefit from this work are Space Station, planetary rovers, and solar exploration. Sparse distributed memory offers promising technology for systems that must learn through experience and be capable of adapting to new circumstances, and for operating any large complex system requiring automatic monitoring and control. Sparse distributed memory is a massively parallel architecture motivated by efforts to understand how the human brain works. Sparse distributed memory is an associative memory, able to retrieve information from cues that only partially match patterns stored in the memory. It is able to store long temporal sequences derived from the behavior of a complex system, such as progressive records of the system's sensory data and correlated records of the system's motor controls.

Raugh, Mike↗

Locomotor Dysfunction after Spaceflight: Characterization and Countermeasure Development

Astronauts returning from space flight show disturbances in locomotor control manifested by changes in various sub-systems including head-trunk coordination, dynamic visual acuity, lower limb muscle activation patterning and kinematics (Glasauer, et al., 1995; Bloomberg, et al., 1997; McDonald, et al., 1996; 1997; Layne, et al., 1997; 1998, 2001, 2004; Newman, et al., 1997; Bloomberg and Mulavara, 2003). These post flight changes in locomotor performance, due to neural adaptation to the microgravity conditions of space flight, affect the ability of crewmembers especially after a long duration mission to egress their vehicle and perform extravehicular activities soon after landing on Earth or following a landing on the surface of the Moon or Mars. At present, no operational training intervention is available pre- or in- flight to mitigate post flight locomotor disturbances. Our laboratory is currently developing a gait adaptability training program that is designed to facilitate recovery of locomotor function following a return to a gravitational environment. The training program exploits the ability of the sensorimotor system to generalize from exposure to multiple adaptive challenges during training so that the gait control system essentially "learns to learn" and therefore can reorganize more rapidly when faced with a novel adaptive challenge. Ultimately, the functional goal of an adaptive generalization countermeasure is not necessarily to immediately return movement patterns back to "normal". Rather the training regimen should facilitate the reorganization of available sensorimotor sub-systems to achieve safe and effective locomotion as soon as possible after space flight. We have previously confirmed that subjects participating in adaptive generalization training programs, using a variety of visuomotor distortions and different motor tasks from throwing to negotiating an obstacle course as the dependent measure, can learn to enhance their ability to adapt to a novel sensorimotor environment (Roller et al., 2001; Cohen et al. 2005). Importantly, this increased adaptability is retained even one month after completion of the training period. Our laboratory is currently developing adaptive generalization training procedures and the associated flight hardware to implement such a training program, using variations of visual flow, subject loading, and treadmill speed; during regular in-flight treadmill operations.

Mulavara, A. P.↗

Laser Frequency Stabilization for GRACE-II

The GRACE mission monitors changes in the Earth's gravity field by measuring changes in the distance between spacecraft induced by that changing field. The distance variation is measured with a microwave ranging system with sub-micron accuracy. The ranging measurement accuracy is limited by the signal-to-noise ratio and by the frequency stability of the microwave signal referenced to an ultra-stable oscillator (USO). For GRACE-2 a laser ranging system is envisioned with accuracy better than the GRACE microwave ranging system. A laser ranging system easily provides an improved signal-to-noise ratio over the microwave system. Laser frequency stability better than the GRACE USO stability has been demonstrated in several laboratories using thermally stabilized optical cavities. We are developing a space-qualifiable optical cavity and associated optics and electronics for use on GRACE-2 to provide a stable frequency reference for the laser ranging system. Two breadboard units have been developed and tested for performance and ability to survive launch and orbit environments. A prototype unit is being designed using lessons learned from tests of the breadboard units.

Earth gravity↗

Comparison of Venous Return Characteristics with Right Ventricular Mechanics During Cephalic Fluid Shift

For my summer internship project, I organized a pilot study to analyze the effects of a cephalic fluid shift on venous return and right ventricular mechanics to increase right ventricular and venous knowledge. To accomplish this pilot study, I wrote a testing protocol, obtained Institutional Review Board (IRB) approval, completed subject payment forms, lead testing sessions, and analyzed the data. This experiment used -20deg head down tilt (20 HDT) as the ground based simulation for the fluid shift that occurs during spaceflight and compared it to data obtained from the seated and supine positions. Using echocardiography, data was collected for the right ventricle, hepatic vein, internal jugular vein, external jugular vein, and inferior vena cava. Additionally, non-invasive venous pressure measurements, similar to those soon to be done in-orbit, were collected. It was determined that the venous return from below the heard is increased during 20 HDT, which was supported by increased hepatic vein velocities, increased right ventricular inflow, and increased right ventricular strain at 20 HDT relative to seated values. Jugular veins in the neck undergo an increase in pressure and area, but no significant increase in flow, relative to seated values when a subject is tilted 20 HDT. Contrary to the initial expectations based on this jugular flow, there was no significant increase in central venous pressure, as evidenced by no change in Doppler indices for right arterial pressure or inferior vena cava diameter. It is suspected that these differences in pressure are due to the hydrostatic pressure indifference point shifting during tilt; there is a potential for a similar phenomenon with microgravity. This data will hopefully lead to a more in-depth understanding of the response of the body to microgravity and how those relate to the previously mentioned cardiovascular risk of fluid shift that is associated with spaceflight. These results were presented in greater detail to the Cardiovascular Laboratory and the Space Life Science Summer Institute, which helped me prepare for future graduate school research presentations. This internship allowed me to apply and expand the anatomy, physiology, and mechanics information I learned during my undergraduate degree in Biomedical Engineering to the cardiovascular system with the unique zero gravity perspective. Additionally, I was able to develop skills with data analysis techniques involving speckle tracking for ventricular strain and Doppler waveforms for blood velocities. Additionally, I was able to expand upon my previous work in the Cardiovascular Laboratory by writing a literature review on a data analysis project I completed last summer. Ultimately, this internship and venous relationship comparison project provided me with a significant learning experience and additional skill sets, which are applicable to my goals of attaining a Ph.D. in biomedical engineering with a focus on tissue engineering and the cardiovascular system.

Elliott, Morgan↗

Utilizing the ISS Mission as a Testbed to Develop Cognitive Communications Systems

The ISS provides an excellent opportunity for pioneering artificial intelligence software to meet the challenges of real-time communications (comm) link management. This opportunity empowers the ISS Program to forge a testbed for developing cognitive communications systems for the benefit of the ISS mission, manned Low Earth Orbit (LEO) science programs and future planetary exploration programs. In November, 1998, the Flight Operations Directorate (FOD) started the ISS Antenna Manager (IAM) project to develop a single processor supporting multiple comm satellite tracking for two different antenna systems. Further, the processor was developed to be highly adaptable as it supported the ISS mission through all assembly stages. The ISS mission mandated communications specialists with complete knowledge of when the ISS was about to lose or gain comm link service. The current specialty mandated cognizance of large sun-tracking solar arrays and thermal management panels in addition to the highly-dynamic satellite service schedules and rise/set tables. This mission requirement makes the ISS the ideal communications management analogue for future LEO space station and long-duration planetary exploration missions. Future missions, with their precision-pointed, dynamic, laser-based comm links, require complete autonomy for managing high-data rate communications systems. Development of cognitive communications management systems that permit any crew member or payload science specialist, regardless of experience level, to control communications is one of the greater benefits the ISS can offer new space exploration programs. The IAM project met a new mission requirement never previously levied against US space-born communications systems management: process and display the orientation of large solar arrays and thermal control panels based on real-time joint angle telemetry. However, IAM leaves the actual communications availability assessment to human judgment, which introduces unwanted variability because each specialist has a different core of experience with comm link performance. Because the ISS utilizes two different frequency bands, dynamic structure can be occasionally translucent at one frequency while it can completely interdict service at the other frequency. The impact of articulating structure on the comm link can depend on its orientation at the time it impinges on the link. It can become easy for a human specialist to cross-associate experience at one frequency with experience at the other frequency. Additionally, the specialist's experience is incremental, occurring one nine-hour shift at a time. Only the IAM processor experiences the complete 24x7x365 communications link performance for both communications links but, it has no "learning capability." If the IAM processor could be endowed with a cognitive ability to remember past structure-induced comm link outages, based on its knowledge of the ISS position, attitude, communications gear, array joint angles and tracking accuracy, it could convey such experience to the human operator. It could also use its learned communications link behaviors to accurately convey the availability of future communications sessions. Further, the tool could remember how accurately or inaccurately it predicted availability and correct future predictions based on past performance. The IAM tool could learn frequency-specific impacts due to spacecraft structures and pass that information along as "experience." Such development would provide a single artificial intelligence processor that could provide two different experience bases. If it also "knew" the satellite service schedule, it could distinguish structure blockage from schedule or planet blockage and then quickly switch to another satellite. Alternatively, just as a human operator could judge, a cognizant comm system based on the IAM model could "know" that the blockage is not going to last very long and continue tracking a comm satellite, waiting for it to track away from structure. Ultimately, once this capability was fully developed and tested in the Mission Control Center, it could be transferred on-orbit to support development of operations concepts that include more advanced cognitive communications systems. Future applications of this capability are easily foreseen because even more dynamic satellite constellations with more nodes and greater capability are coming. Currently, the ISS fully employs a 300 million bit-per-second (Mbps) return link for harvesting payload science. In the coming eighteen months, it will step up to 600 Mbps. Already there is talk of a 1.2 billion bit-per-second (Gbps) upgrade for the ISS and laser comm links have already been tested from the ISS. Every data rate upgrade mandates more complicated and sensitive communications equipment which implies greater expertise invested in the human operator. Future on-orbit cognizant comm systems will be needed to meet greater performance demands aboard larger, far more complicated spacecraft. In the LEO environment, the old-style one-satellite-per-spacecraft operations concept will give way to a new concept of a single customer spacecraft simultaneously using multiple comm satellites. Much more highly-dynamic manned LEO missions with decades of crew members potentially increase the demand for communications link performance. A cognizant on-board communications system will meet advanced communications demands from future LEO missions and future planetary missions. The ISS has fledgling components of future exploration programs, both LEO and planetary. Further, the Flight Operations Directorate, through the IAM project, has already begun to develop a communications management system that attempts to solve advanced problems ideally represented by dynamic structure impacting scheduled satellite service. With an earnest project to integrate artificial intelligence into the IAM processor, the ISS Program could develop a cognizant communications system that could be adapted and transferred to future on-orbit avionics designs.

Jackson, Dan↗

Utilizing the ISS Mission as a Testbed to Develop Cognitive Communications Systems

The ISS provides an excellent opportunity for pioneering artificial intelligence software to meet the challenges of real-time communications (comm) link management. This opportunity empowers the ISS Program to forge a testbed for developing cognitive communications systems for the benefit of the ISS mission, manned Low Earth Orbit (LEO) science programs and future planetary exploration programs. In November, 1998, the Flight Operations Directorate (FOD) started the ISS Antenna Manager (IAM) project to develop a single processor supporting multiple comm satellite tracking for two different antenna systems. Further, the processor was developed to be highly adaptable as it supported the ISS mission through all assembly stages. The ISS mission mandated communications specialists with complete knowledge of when the ISS was about to lose or gain comm link service. The current specialty mandated cognizance of large sun-tracking solar arrays and thermal management panels in addition to the highly-dynamic satellite service schedules and rise/set tables. This mission requirement makes the ISS the ideal communications management analogue for future LEO space station and long-duration planetary exploration missions. Future missions, with their precision-pointed, dynamic, laser-based comm links, require complete autonomy for managing high-data rate communications systems. Development of cognitive communications management systems that permit any crew member or payload science specialist, regardless of experience level, to control communications is one of the greater benefits the ISS can offer new space exploration programs. The IAM project met a new mission requirement never previously levied against US space-born communications systems management: process and display the orientation of large solar arrays and thermal control panels based on real-time joint angle telemetry. However, IAM leaves the actual communications availability assessment to human judgement, which introduces unwanted variability because each specialist has a different core of experience with comm link performance. Because the ISS utilizes two different frequency bands, dynamic structure can be occasionally translucent at one frequency while it can completely interdict service at the other frequency. The impact of articulating structure on the comm link can depend on its orientation at the time it impinges on the link. It can become easy for a human specialist to cross-associate experience at one frequency with experience at the other frequency. Additionally, the specialist's experience is incremental, occurring one nine-hour shift at a time. Only the IAM processor experiences the complete 24x7x365 communications link performance for both communications links but, it has no "learning capability." If the IAM processor could be endowed with a cognitive ability to remember past structure-induced comm link outages, based on its knowledge of the ISS position, attitude, communications gear, array joint angles and tracking accuracy, it could convey such experience to the human operator. It could also use its learned communications link behaviors to accurately convey the availability of future communications sessions. Further, the tool could remember how accurately or inaccurately it predicted availability and correct future predictions based on past performance. The IAM tool could learn frequency-specific impacts due to spacecraft structures and pass that information along as "experience." Such development would provide a single artificial intelligence processor that could provide two different experience bases. If it also "knew" the satellite service schedule, it could distinguish structure blockage from schedule or planet blockage and then quickly switch to another satellite. Alternatively, just as a human operator could judge, a cognizant comm system based on the IAM model could "know" that the blockage is not going to last very long and continue tracking a comm satellite, waiting for it to track away from structure. Ultimately, once this capability was fully developed and tested in the Mission Control Center, it could be transferred on-orbit to support development of operations concepts that include more advanced cognitive communications systems. Future applications of this capability are easily foreseen because even more dynamic satellite constellations with more nodes and greater capability are coming. Currently, the ISS fully employs its high-data-rate return link for harvesting payload science. In the coming months, it will double that data rate and is forecast to fully utilize that capability. Already there is talk of an upgrade that quadruples the current data rate allocated to ISS payload science before the end of its mission and laser comm links have already been tested from the ISS. Every data rate upgrade mandates more complicated and sensitive communications equipment which implies greater expertise invested in the human operator. Future on-orbit cognizant comm systems will be needed to meet greater performance demands aboard larger, far more complicated spacecraft. In the LEO environment, the old-style one-satellite-per-spacecraft operations concept will give way to a new concept of a single customer spacecraft simultaneously using multiple comm satellites. Much more highly-dynamic manned LEO missions with decades of crew members potentially increase the demand for communications link performance. A cognizant on-board communications system will meet advanced communications demands from future LEO missions and future planetary missions. The ISS has fledgling components of future exploration programs, both LEO and planetary. Further, the Flight Operations Directorate, through the IAM project, has already begun to develop a communications management system that attempts to solve advanced problems ideally represented by dynamic structure impacting scheduled satellite service. With an earnest project to integrate artificial intelligence into the IAM processor, the ISS Program could develop a cognizant communications system that could be adapted and transferred to future on-orbit avionics designs.

Jackson, Dan↗

An Open-Science Approach to Address Individual Response to Simulated GCR In Genetically Diverse Populations of Mice and Humans

This project addresses the challenge of understanding and predicting individual radiation sensitivity by integrating genetics, demographics and biomarker characteristics across species (mice and humans). We hypothesize that ex vivo DNA repair response to GCR components is a central determinant of cancer risk from space radiation and can serve as a biomarker of radiation risk in combination with genetics. Automated image quantification of 53BP1+ radiation-induced foci (RIF) during the first 4-48 h post-irradiation was performed as a function of dose and LET in non-immortalized primary skin fibroblasts derived from 76 mice across 15 strains (5 inbred reference strains and 10 collaborative-cross strains) exposed to X rays (0.1, 1 and 4 Gy), 350 MeV/n 40Ar and 600 MeV/n 56Fe (1.1 and 3 particles/100sq. μm), as well as in peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) from 768 healthy donors (matched ethnicity, 50/50 male/female, 18-70 years old) exposed to gamma rays (0.1 and 1 Gy), 350 MeV/n 28Si, 350 MeV/n 40Ar and 600 MeV/n 56Fe (1.1 and 3 particles/100sq. μm). A genome-wide association study (GWAS) was performed on the mouse strains between DNA damage responses to space radiation and single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). We found SNPs, which were significantly associated to the RIF phenotype, mapped to genes and pathways that are functionally linked to health hazards for deep space exploration (e.g. carcinogenesis, nervous system damage and immune dysfunction). Some of these SNPs were located within protein coding regions, potentially interfering with protein functions and providing promising genetic targets for countermeasures. We also found correlations between both spontaneous and radiation-induced DNA damage and SNPs mapped to pathways associated with cellular metabolism. GWAS is undergoing for the human data. All data have been made available via the NASA Space Biology Open-Science database (genelab.nasa.gov) and we will discuss how various genomic and transcriptomic datasets can be accessed for modeling and integrated using machine learning methods for discovering new radiation biology.

Sylvain V Costes↗

On Road vs. Off Road Low Load Cycle Comparison

Reducing criteria pollutants while reducing greenhouse gases is an active area of research for commercial on-road vehicles as well as for off-road machines. The heavy duty on-road sector has moved to reducing NOx by 82.5% compared to 2010 regulations while increasing the engine useful life from 435,000 to 650,000 miles by 2027 in the United States (US). An additional certification cycle, the Low Load Cycle (LLC), has been added focusing on part load operation having tight NOx emissions levels. In addition to NOx, the total CO2 emissions from the vehicle will also be reduced for various model years. The off-road market is following with a 90% NOx reduction target compared to Tier 4 Final for 130-560 kW engines along with greenhouse gas targets that are still being established. The off-road market will also need to certify with a Low Load Application Cycle (LLAC), a version of which was proposed for evaluation in 2021. Since the LLAC has not been finalized, this study is being conducted to compare and contrast the LLC for on-road with the LLAC for off-road as there might be some shared learnings. A US off-road production 2023 Fiat Powertrain 13L engine and aftertreatment system was chosen for this work. This engine is used in production for both off-road and on-road products, so it is a good choice for this study. The associated off-road aftertreatment system was aged for more relevant comparisons. The engine calibration was not altered for either of the low load cycles. This study shows that the cycles are quite different in nature as the market needs are different. The LLC includes a large fraction of operation at idle and lower speeds, representing products that use the engine primarily for motive power, where lower vehicle speed means a lower engine speed and load. The LLAC has more time and load spent at high speeds and slightly higher loads. The off-road products represented by this cycle often use the engine to drive auxiliary equipment which means higher parasitic loads and hand/fixed throttle. The comparison will include the use profiles, tailpipe NOx and greenhouse gas emissions (CO2, N2O).

McCarthy, James↗

Predictive models of the genetic bases underlying budding yeast fitness in multiple environments

Abstract The ability of organisms to adapt and survive depends on the effects of genes and the environment on fitness. However, the multigenic nature of fitness and genotype-by-environment interactions hinder our understanding of the genetic basis of fitness. Here, we established fitness prediction models for 35 environments using machine learning and existing fitness data and different genetic variant types for a Saccharomyces cerevisiae population. Models revealed that the predictive ability of genetic variants varied across environments, with copy number variants explaining the majority of fitness variation in most cases. Model interpretation showed that different variant types identified distinct gene sets associated with predictive variants. These gene sets were significantly enriched in experimentally validated genes affecting fitness in only a subset of environments, indicating that many genes influencing fitness remain unexplored. Notably, non-experimentally validated genes were more important than validated ones for fitness predictions. Gene contributions to predictions were both isolate- and environment-dependent, pointing to gene-by-gene and gene-by-environment interactions. Furthermore, models uncovered experimentally validated and novel candidate genetic interactions for a well-characterized stress, the fungicide benomyl. These findings highlight the feasibility of identifying the genetic basis of fitness by using different genetic variant types and offer novel targets for future functional analysis.

DNA copy number variations↗

Predicting Pulsed-Laser Deposition SrTiO 3 Homoepitaxy Growth Dynamics Using High-Speed Reflection High-Energy Electron Diffraction

Pulsed-laser deposition (PLD) is a powerful technique for growing complex oxides with controlled stoichiometry. To understand growth dynamics therein, it is common to leverage in situ spectroscopies, such as reflection high-energy electron diffraction (RHEED), to monitor surface crystallinity. Most commercial systems rely on video-rate cameras operating at 60-120 Hz that lack sufficient temporal resolution to capture growth dynamics at practical deposition frequencies. Here, a high-speed platform to record in situ dynamics via RHEED at >500 Hz is implemented. An open-source analysis package is designed to fit diffraction spots to 2D Gaussians, allowing single-pulse surface reconstruction kinetics extraction. Using homoepitaxially deposited (001)-oriented SrTiO 3 as a model system, we demonstrate how high-speed RHEED can provide real-time insight into growth processes obscured by slower acquisition systems. By fitting the single-pulse intensity to a set of exponential functions, we observe changes in the characteristic decay time and mechanism correlated to the substrate step width and surface termination. We observe distinct surface effects, with diffraction intensity decaying on lower-energy TiO 2 -terminated surfaces and stabilizing on SrO- or mixed-terminated surfaces. Similarly, using an exponential model, the extracted characteristic time of adatom deposition decreases with increased density of bonding sites associated with mixed termination and narrower step widths. Ultimately, this work shows how increasing RHEED temporal resolution can uncover new insights into growth processes, with practical implications for the design and control of PLD processes. This experimental platform provides new capabilities to enable data-driven machine learning analysis and autonomous control systems to enhance the complexity and fecundity of PLD.

(SrO)↗

Validation of new and existing methods for time-domain simulations of turbulence and loads

We seek to obtain a second-by-second match between the simulated and measured structural loads of a utility-scale wind turbine. To obtain the one-to-one load simulations, we start with the furthest upstream component of the modeling chain: the turbulent inflow. We consider new and existing methods to generate constrained-turbulence flow fields. The new method is based on large-eddy simulations (LES) and machine learning (ML). The existing methods include Kaimal-based TurbSim and the superstatistical wind field model. The inflow measurements used to constrain these simulations are obtained with a nacelle-mounted scanning lidar. We compare the flow fields for the different inflow simulation approaches and validate their associated load predictions against measurements collected in the Rotor Aero-dynamics, Aeroelastics, and Wake (RAAW) field campaign. We find that the rotor-position control developed for this study is key in enabling the time match between measurements and simulations. When this control approach is used, the load simulation performance tracks with the inflow simulation fidelity, with LES+ML yielding errors ≤ 4% for the damage-equivalent loads of flapwise bending moment, and tower fore-aft bending moments.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Compiling the space shuttle wind tunnel data base: An exercise in technical and managerial innovators

Engineers evaluating Space Shuttle flight data and performance results are using a massive data base of wind tunnel test data. A wind tunnel test data base of the magnitude attained is a major accomplishment. The Apollo program spawned an automated wind tunnel data analysis system called SADSAC developed by the Chrysler Space Division. An improved version of this system renamed DATAMAN was used by Chrysler to document analyzed wind tunnel data and data bank the test data in standardized formats. These analysis documents, associated computer graphics and standard formatted data were disseminated nationwide to the Shuttle technical community. These outputs became the basis for substantiating and certifying the flight worthiness of the Space Shuttle and for improving future designs. As an aid to future programs this paper documents the lessons learned in compiling the massive wind tunnel test data base for developing the Space Shuttle. In particular, innovative managerial and technical concepts evolved in the course of conceiving and developing this successful DATAMAN system and the methods and organization for applying the system are presented.

Kemp, N. D.↗

NEEMO 20: Science Training, Operations, and Tool Development

The 20th mission of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Extreme Environment Mission Operations (NEEMO) was a highly integrated evaluation of operational protocols and tools designed to enable future exploration beyond low-Earth orbit. NEEMO 20 was conducted from the Aquarius habitat off the coast of Key Largo, FL in July 2015. The habitat and its surroundings provide a convincing analog for space exploration. A crew of six (comprised of astronauts, engineers, and habitat technicians) lived and worked in and around the unique underwater laboratory over a mission duration of 14-days. Incorporated into NEEMO 20 was a diverse Science Team (ST) comprised of geoscientists from the Astromaterials Research and Exploration Science (ARES/XI) Division from the Johnson Space Center (JSC), as well as marine scientists from the Department of Biological Sciences at Florida International University (FIU). This team trained the crew on the science to be conducted, defined sampling techniques and operational procedures, and planned and coordinated the science focused Extra Vehicular Activities (EVAs). The primary science objectives of NEEMO 20 was to study planetary sampling techniques and tools in partial gravity environments under realistic mission communication time delays and operational pressures. To facilitate these objectives two types of science sites were employed 1) geoscience sites with available rocks and regolith for testing sampling procedures and tools and, 2) marine science sites dedicated to specific research focused on assessing the photosynthetic capability of corals and their genetic connectivity between deep and shallow reefs. These marine sites and associated research objectives included deployment of handheld instrumentation, context descriptions, imaging, and sampling; thus acted as a suitable proxy for planetary surface exploration activities. This abstract briefly summarizes the scientific training, scientific operations, and tool development conducted during NEEMO 20 with an emphasis on the primary lessons learned.

Graff, T.↗

Recent Advances in Discrete Crack Modeling Applied to Laminated Composites with Emphasis on: Floating Node Method, VCCT and Cohesive Zone Modeling

The present talk will provide an overview of the work performed during the Advanced Composites Project (ACP) on the development, and verification and validation of the Floating Node Method (FNM) as well as the Virtual Crack Closure Technique (VCCT) and cohesive zone modeling (CZM). The FNM is a finite element-based technique to represent crack networks. The complex nature of matrix crack-delamination interactions observed in unidirectional (UD) tape laminates suggests that a methodology such as the FNM method may be required to be able to accurately simulate damage progression in these laminates. Simulating crack onset and growth within the context of the FNM relies on techniques such as VCCT and CZM. The talk is organized to provide, via select examples, an overview of the breadth of the Verification & Validation (V&V) exercises performed during the ACP, and how these challenged the state-of-the art and guided further developments in discrete crack modeling, while helping to establish confidence in the progress made and map the challenges ahead. The performance of the VCCT and CZM individually, and in combination with the FNM can be assessed through verification exercises. These exercises typically consist of a comparison of simulation results to known numerical or analytical solutions. Verification is key to identify implementation issues and limitations that, otherwise, may remain undetected and cloud any subsequent validation efforts. Indeed, a subset of these numerical exercises led to further developments of the VCCT and the FNM method as will be illustrated. Before embarking on the subsequent validation of the framework, it is critical to have adequate characterization data. However, the testing campaign conducted revealed material responses that challenged the state-of-the-art and required further developments. The developments in CZM technology associated with the modeling of the responses of hybrid interfaces (fabric/UD) will be given as an example. Finally, the talk will conclude with a summary of the validation exercises performed under quasi-static and fatigue loadings, highlighting some of the key achievements, outstanding challenges and lessons learned.

finite elements↗

W2VPCA: A Machine Learning Method for Measuring Attitudes With Natural Language

Company strategy influences many decisions in freight transportation. Behavioral models of company decision-making therefore could benefit from including strategy variables. However, strategy is difficult to observe and quantify. Attitudinal surveys of company executives can be used to collect measurements of latent strategy to use in quantitative models. However, surveys are costly and burdensome. Text mining methods to collect measurements overcome these issues somewhat, but typically require manual intervention and ignore the context of words, which can be problematic. This study introduces a new machine learning method to generate strategy measurement data from existing big text data. The new method, called W2VPCA, combines Natural Language Processing and Principal Components Analysis. W2VPCA produces measurement data that serve as quantitative indicators of latent strategy in behavioral models. W2VPCA is unsupervised, data-driven, and uses information on word context. We apply W2VPCA to generate measurements of latent strategies using readily available, large-scale text data: annual company reports. The empirical measurements are used successfully to associate two latent strategies, one focusing on distribution and the other on products, with truck fleet and distribution center outsourcing decisions. The main empirical outcome is that the W2VPCA measurements outperform Bag-of-Words measurements in a psychometric analysis of latent firm strategies. While this study focuses on freight behavioral models, W2VPCA may also have applications in behavioral modeling in other domains.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗