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633 records · Page 36
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2016

A Public-Private-Acadmic Partnership to Advance Solar Power Forecasting

The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) is pleased to have led a partnership to advance the state-of-the-science of solar power forecasting by designing, developing, building, deploying, testing, and assessing the SunCast™ Solar Power Forecasting System. The project has included cutting edge research, testing in several geographically- and climatologically-diverse high penetration solar utilities and Independent System Operators (ISOs), and wide dissemination of the research results to raise the bar on solar power forecasting technology. The partners include three other national laboratories, six universities, and industry partners. This public-private-academic team has worked in concert to perform use-inspired research to advance solar power forecasting through cutting-edge research to advance both the necessary forecasting technologies and the metrics for evaluating them. The project has culminated in a year-long, full-scale demonstration of provide irradiance and power forecasts to utilities and ISOs to use in their operations. The project focused on providing elements of a value chain, beginning with the weather that causes a deviation from clear sky irradiance and progresses through monitoring and observations, modeling, forecasting, dissemination and communication of the forecasts, interpretation of the forecast, and through decision-making, which produces outcomes that have an economic value. The system has been evaluated using metrics developed specifically for this project, which has provided rich information on model and system performance. Research was accomplished on the very short range (0-6 hours) Nowcasting system as well as on the longer term (6-72 hour) forecasting system. The shortest range forecasts are based on observations in the field. The shortest range system, built by Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) and based on Total Sky Imagers (TSIs) is TSICast, which operates on the shortest time scale with a latency of only a few minutes and forecasts that currently go out to about 15 min. This project has facilitated research in improving the hardware and software so that the new high definition cameras deployed at multiple nearby locations allow discernment of the clouds at varying levels and advection according to the winds observed at those levels. Improvements over “smart persistence” are about 29% for even these very short forecasts. StatCast is based on pyranometer data measured at the site as well as concurrent meteorological observations and forecasts. StatCast is based on regime-dependent artificial intelligence forecasting techniques and has been shown to improve on “smart persistence” forecasts by 15-50%. A second category of short-range forecasting systems employ satellite imagery and use that information to discern clouds and their motion, allowing them to project the clouds, and the resulting blockage of irradiance, in time. CIRACast (the system produced by the Cooperative Institute for Atmospheric Research [CIRA] at Colorado State University) was already one of the more advanced cloud motion systems, which is the reason that team was brought to this project. During the project timeframe, the CIRA team was able to advance cloud shadowing, parallax removal, and implementation of better advecting winds at different altitudes. CIRACast shows generally a 25-40% improvement over Smart Persistence between sunrise and approximately 1600 UTC (Coordinated Universal Time) . A second satellite-based system, MADCast (Multi-sensor Advective Diffusive foreCast system), assimilates data from multiple satellite imagers and profilers to assimilate a fully three-dimensional picture of the cloud into the dynamic core of WRF. During 2015, MADCast (provided at least 70% improvement over Smart Persistence, with most of that skill being derived during partly cloudy conditions. That allows advection of the clouds via the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model dynamics directly. After WRF-Solar™ showed initial success, it was also deployed in nowcasting mode with coarser runs out to 6 hours made hourly. It provided improvements on the order of 50-60% over Smart Persistence for forecasts up to 1600 UTC. The advantages of WRF-Solar-Nowcasting and MADCast were then blended to develop the new MAD-WRF model that incorporates the most important features of each of those models, both assimilating satellite cloud fields and using WRF-So far physics to develop and dissipate clouds. MAE improvements for MAD-WRF for forecasts from 3-6 hours are improved over WRF-Solar-Now by 20%. While all the Nowcasting system components by themselves provide improvement over Smart Persistence, the largest benefit is derived when they are smartly blended together by the Nowcasting Integrator to produce an integrated forecast. The development of WRF-Solar™ under this project has provided the first numerical weather prediction (NWP) model specifically designed to meet the needs of irradiance forecasting. The first augmentation improved the solar tracking algorithm to account for deviations associated with the eccentricity of the Earth’s orbit and the obliquity of the Earth. Second, WRF-Solar™ added the direct normal irradiance (DNI) and diffuse (DIF) components from the radiation parameterization to the model output. Third, efficient parameterizations were implemented to either interpolate the irradiance in between calls to the expensive radiative transfer parameterization, or to use a fast radiative transfer code that avoids computing three-dimensional heating rates but provides the surface irradiance. Fourth, a new parameterization was developed to improve the representation of absorption and scattering of radiation by aerosols (aerosol direct effect). A fifth advance is that the aerosols now interact with the cloud microphysics, altering the cloud evolution and radiative properties, an effect that has been traditionally only implemented in atmospheric computationally costly chemistry models. A sixth development accounts for the feedbacks that sub-grid scale clouds produce in shortwave irradiance as implemented in a shallow cumulus parameterization Finally, WRF-Solar™ also allows assimilation of infrared irradiances from satellites to determine the three dimensional cloud field, allowing for an improved initialization of the cloud field that increases the performance of short-range forecasts. We find that WRF-Solar™ can improve clear sky irradiance prediction by 15-80% over a standard version of WRF, depending on location and cloud conditions. In a formal comparison to the NAM baseline, WRF-Solar™ showed improvements in the Day-Ahead forecast of 22-42%. The SunCast™ system requires substantial software engineering to blend all of the new model components as well as existing publically available NWP model runs. To do this we use an expert system for the Nowcasting blender and the Dynamic Integrated foreCast (DICast®) system for the NWP models. These two systems are then blended, we use an empirical power conversion method to convert the irradiance predictions to power, then apply an analog ensemble (AnEn) approach to further tune the forecast as well as to estimate its uncertainty. The AnEn module decreased RMSE (root mean squared error) by 17% over the blended SunCast™ power forecasts and provided skill in the probabilistic forecast with a Brier Skill Score of 0.55. In addition, we have also developed a Gridded Atmospheric Forecast System (GRAFS) in parallel, leveraging cost share funds. An economic evaluation based on Production Cost Modeling in the Public Service Company of Colorado showed that the observed 50% improvement in forecast accuracy will save their customers $819,200 with the projected MW deployment for 2024. Using econometrics, NCAR has scaled this savings to a national level and shown that an annual expected savings for this 50% forecast error reduction ranges from $11M in 2015 to $43M expected in 2040 with increased solar deployment. This amounts to a $455M discounted savings over the 26 year period of analysis.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2016

Development of a Thin Film Primary Surface Heat Exchanger for Advanced Power Cycles

This project objective is to develop a high-temperature design upgrade for an existing primary surface heat exchanger so that the redesigned hardware is capable of operation in CO 2 at temperatures up to 1,510°F (821°C) and pressure differentials up to 130 psi (9 bar). The heat exchanger is proposed for use as a recuperator in an advanced low-pressure oxy-fuel Brayton cycle that is predicted to achieve over 50% thermodynamic efficiency, although the heat exchanger could also be used in other high-temperature, low-differential pressure cycles. This report describes the progress to date, which includes continuing work performed to select and test new candidate materials for the recuperator redesign, final mechanical and thermal performance analysis results of various redesign concepts, and the preliminary design of a test loop for the redesigned recuperator including a budgetary estimate for detailed test loop design, procurement, and test operation. A materials search was performed in order to investigate high-temperature properties of many candidate materials, including high-temperature strength and nickel content. These properties were used to rank the candidate materials, resulting in a reduced list of nine materials for corrosion testing. Multiple test rigs were considered and analyzed for short-term corrosion testing and Thermal Gravimetric Analysis (TGA) was selected as the most cost-effective option for evaluating corrosion resistance of the candidate materials. In addition, tantalum, niobium, and chromium coatings were identified as potential options for increased corrosion resistance. The test results show that many materials exhibit relatively low weight gain rates, and that niobium and tantalum coatings may improve corrosion resistance for many materials, while chromium coatings appear to oxidize and debond quickly. Metallurgical analysis of alloys was also performed, showing evidence of intergranular attack in 282 that may cause long-term reliability problems in CO 2 service at these temperatures. However, long-term testing in a flowing environment is recommended in order to understand accurately the severity of the attack. Detailed economic modeling of the existing air cycle recuperator and CO 2 cycle recuperator options was also completed, including costs for material, fabrication, fuel, maintenance, and operation. The analysis results show that the increased capital cost for high-temperature materials may be offset by higher cycle efficiencies, decreasing the overall lifetime cost of the system. The economic analysis also examines costs associated with increased pressure drop and material changes for two redesign options. These results show that, even with slightly reduced performance and/or higher material costs, the lifetime cost per energy production may still be reduced by over 12%. The existing recuperator design information was provided by Solar Turbines, Inc. via several models, drawings, and design handoff meetings. Multiple fluid/thermal and structural models were created in order to analyze critical recuperator performance and mechanical strength in critical areas throughout the redesign process. These models were analyzed for a baseline condition (consistent with current Mercury 50 operation) for validation purposes. Results are presented for heat transfer coefficients and pressure drops, matching well with the existing operational data. Simulation of higher-temperature CO 2 conditions was also performed, showing a slight expected increase in both heat transfer and pressure drop. Mechanical analysis results for critical areas on the cross-flow and counter-flow sheets have also been obtained for air and CO 2 cases. These results show similar stresses in both cases but significantly reduced safety factors for the CO 2 case due to reduced yield and creep rupture strengths of alloy 625 at the higher temperatures. A concept brainstorm session and initial down-selection were completed in order to identify promising redesign options for further analysis. Detailed analysis of all promising redesign options was performed via finite element and computational fluid dynamic simulations in order to characterize mechanical and thermal-fluid performance of each option. These options included material change, various sheet thickness configurations, pitch and phasing of cross-flow and counter-flow sheets, and separator sheets. The analysis results have identified two viable redesign options that maintain existing safety margins optimally through a material change to Haynes 282 and (A) sheet thickness increases of 40% on the counter-flow sheet and 75% on the hot side cross-flow corrugation sheet or (B) addition of a separator sheet in the counter-flow section while maintaining the original counter-flow sheet thickness and increasing the cross-flow corrugation sheet thickness by 90% to account for the increase in cell height. While both options satisfy mechanical stress constraints, the separator sheet design has a higher part count, slightly reduced heat transfer, and slightly higher pressure drop than the first option and is not preferred. Finally, several test loop concepts have been developed for different full-scale and reduced-scale recuperator testing options. For each option, various loop components, such as heat exchangers, valves, heaters, and compressors, were evaluated in an effort to maximize utilization of existing resources. All concepts utilize an existing 3-MW CO 2 compressor, heater, and loop coolers, but the concepts vary by incorporating different amounts of new equipment for achieving various flow rates (all concepts operate at design pressure and temperature). The third concept achieves a 1 kg/s test without purchasing any costly equipment (coolers, heaters, blowers, etc.). Since the stacked cell design of the recuperator results in the same flow conditions at each core cell (even for a reduced-scale test). Thus, test loop Concept #3 was selected for the preliminary design. This loop design is detailed within the report, culminating in a budgetary estimate of $1,013,000.00 for the detailed design, construction, commissioning, and operation of a high-temperature recuperator test loop.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Performance of the CMS high-level trigger during LHC Run 2

The CERN LHC provided proton and heavy ion collisions during its Run 2 operation period from 2015 to 2018. Proton-proton collisions reached a peak instantaneous luminosity of 2.1× 10 34 cm -2 s -1 , twice the initial design value, at √(s)=13 TeV. The CMS experiment records a subset of the collisions for further processing as part of its online selection of data for physics analyses, using a two-level trigger system: the Level-1 trigger, implemented in custom-designed electronics, and the high-level trigger, a streamlined version of the offline reconstruction software running on a large computer farm. This paper presents the performance of the CMS high-level trigger system during LHC Run 2 for physics objects, such as leptons, jets, and missing transverse momentum, which meet the broad needs of the CMS physics program and the challenge of the evolving LHC and detector conditions. Sophisticated algorithms that were originally used in offline reconstruction were deployed online. Highlights include a machine-learning b tagging algorithm and a reconstruction algorithm for tau leptons that decay hadronically.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗