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At least 649 records · Page 36

How AI Predicts the Untrained and Unseen

Focus Area: Model predictability improvements (Primary); Data optimization (secondary); Data complexity insights (secondary). The Scientific Challenge: If we believe that a future under extreme conditions will look very differently from today, we can likely agree that ML/AI models trained on past and present datasets will not be adequate to make reliable predictions into the future. This is true for water cycling, as well as biogeochemistry and other Earth system components and behaviors. Additionally, ML/AI models are inherently non-physical. Despite the flourishing success of ML/AI in many applications, such as computer vision, natural language process, and gaming, even the most sophisticated AI models don’t understand the very basic physical laws. Therefore, a natural question is: Can we trust ML/AI based predictions of Earth system behaviors that are fundamentally driven by physical laws? So, are physics models with meticulous process representation a better choice? Not exactly. Physical models, when firmly rooted in first principles, work great at predicting behaviors of systems with a well-defined set of boundary conditions and variables. However, as a complex system, the number of parameters and the degree of complexity and dynamics in processes, coupling, and scale dependent emergent behaviors make the Earth system behaviors very challenging to predict with physical models composed of deterministic laws. In addition, due to the lack of fundamental understandings, physical models often implement empirical correlations derived from observations with biases from locality of data generation. Because correlation is not necessarily causation or comply with first principles, scaling of model predictions beyond locality is often invalid. Beyond the limitation of models, physics or AI, our knowledge of the Earth system is limited by the lack of observational technologies and resources. Insufficient data density, dimensionality and diversity only offer a sliced (or projected) view of the Earth system, e.g. Plato’s Cave analogy, limiting our capability to better understand and represent fundamental processes in models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Sea–Level Rise Impacts on Tidal Marshes and Estuarine Biogeochemical Processes

We used a numerical model to investigate the effects of sea-level rise (SLR) on the biogeochemical processes in the York River Estuary with extensive tidal marshes. The fully-coupled hydrodynamic-water quality-marsh model accounts for the spatial and temporal variations of physical-biogeochemical interactions between the tidal marshes and surrounding waters. This study focuses on an SLR scenario where the vertical accretion of tidal marshes keeps pace with the rising sea levels. Results show that SLR amplifies the tidal range and prolongs flooding duration, which results in enhanced porewater exchanges of materials between the tidal marshes and the surrounding waters. The increased availability of shallow-water habitats and enhanced light utilization in the shallow areas under SLR promote phytoplankton production (PP) in the shallow-water regions of the York River. Consequently, the organic carbon in the open water is fueled by the contributions from shallow waters and the enhanced export of organic carbon from the marshes. The change in the dissolved oxygen (DO) budget in the York River Estuary is attributed to changes in water column respiration, net metabolism of the benthic layer, reaeration, PP, and increased stratification under SLR. The net DO flux out of the York River increases at the York River mouth. Diel DO variation, especially in the marshes in the upper estuary, promotes phosphorus release from the sediment. The changes in dissolved nitrogen under SLR are relatively minimal.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

River–aquifer interactions enhancing evapotranspiration in a semiarid riparian zone: A modelling study

The hydrologic flows across the river–aquifer interface play an important role in groundwater dynamics and biogeochemical reactions within the subsurface; however, little is known about the effects of river–aquifer interactions on land surface processes. In this study, we developed a fully coupled three-dimensional (3D) land surface and subsurface model at a high resolution (~1 km) that accounts for high-frequency hydrologic exchange flow conditions to investigate how river–aquifer interactions modulate surface water budgets in the Upper Columbia-Priest Rapids watershed, a typical semiarid watershed located in the northwestern United States where river stage fluctuates in response to reservoir releases changing. Our results show that the spatiotemporal dynamics of river–aquifer interactions are highly heterogeneous, driven mainly by river-stage fluctuations. Adding 6.64 × 10 6 m 3 year –1 of water over the watershed from the river to groundwater owing to the lateral flow, river–aquifer interactions led to an increase in soil evaporation and transpiration supplied by higher soil moisture content, particularly in deeper subsurface. In a hypothetic future scenarios where a 5-m rise in river stage was assumed, the hydrologic flow exchange rates were intensified, resulting in higher surface water over the entire watershed. Overall, lateral flow induced by river–aquifer exchanges leads to an increase in evapotranspiration of ~75% in the historical period and of ~83% in the hypothetical future scenario. Finally, our study demonstrates the potential of coupled model as an effective tool for understanding river–aquifer–land surface interactions, and indicates that river–aquifer interactions fundamentally alter the water balance of the riparian zone for the semiarid watershed and will likely become more frequent and intense in the future under the effects of climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A screening-level life cycle greenhouse gas analysis of CO 2 enhanced oil recovery with CO 2 sourced from the Shute Creek natural gas-processing facility

This life cycle analysis (LCA) evaluates life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions associated with a system that produces both natural gas and crude oil. Two systems are defined: System 1, which independently produces natural gas and oil, and System 2, which captures carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) from the natural gas-processing plant and utilizes this captured CO 2 for enhanced oil recovery (EOR). The LCA uses customized spreadsheet models with emission factors from peer-reviewed literature and publications of the National Energy Technology Laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy. The modeling results show that the CO 2 EOR scenario using captured CO 2 produces both natural gas and oil with lower life cycle GHG emissions than alternative systems producing natural gas and oil independently. Sensitivity analyses show that the model results are most sensitive to the fraction of CO 2 captured (or equivalently, the fraction of CO 2 vented) at the natural gas-processing facility and the incremental oil recovery factor and net CO 2 utilization factor of the EOR operations. The input variable driving the relative difference in life cycle GHG emissions between these two systems is the fraction of CO 2 captured at the natural gas-processing facility (i.e., the capture rate). Here, the results of this study highlight the necessity of linking processes in the life cycle modeling, as a change to one process can affect other processes within the coupled energy system comprised of natural gas and oil. In addition, this analysis shows, as prior work has also suggested, that CO 2 EOR using captured anthropogenic CO 2 provides a viable means for offsetting carbon emissions from oil production and combustion via the associated storage of CO 2 that occurs incidentally during this tertiary method of oil recovery.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Importance of the Antarctic Slope Current in the Southern Ocean Response to Ice Sheet Melt and Wind Stress Change

Abstract We use two coupled climate models, GFDL‐CM4 and GFDL‐ESM4, to investigate the physical response of the Southern Ocean to changes in surface wind stress, Antarctic meltwater, and the combined forcing of the two in a pre‐industrial control simulation. The meltwater cools the ocean surface in all regions except the Weddell Sea, where the wind stress warms the near‐surface layer. The limited sensitivity of the Weddell Sea surface layer to the meltwater is due to the spatial distribution of the meltwater fluxes, regional bathymetry, and large‐scale circulation patterns. The meltwater forcing dominates the Antarctic shelf response and the models yield strikingly different responses along West Antarctica. The disagreement is attributable to the mean‐state representation and meltwater‐driven acceleration of the Antarctic Slope Current (ASC). In CM4, the meltwater is efficiently trapped on the shelf by a well resolved, strong, and accelerating ASC which isolates the West Antarctic shelf from warm offshore waters, leading to strong subsurface cooling. In ESM4, a weaker and diffuse ASC allows more meltwater to escape to the open ocean, the West Antarctic shelf does not become isolated, and instead strong subsurface warming occurs. The CM4 results suggest a possible negative feedback mechanism that acts to limit future melting, while the ESM4 results suggest a possible positive feedback mechanism that acts to accelerate melt. Our results demonstrate the strong influence the ASC has on governing changes along the shelf, highlighting the importance of coupling interactive ice sheet models to ocean models that can resolve these dynamical processes.

Beadling, R. L.↗

A Novel Method for Diagnosing Land–Atmosphere Coupling Sensitivity in a Single-Column Model

The response of boundary layer properties and cloudiness to changes in surface evaporative fraction (EF) is investigated in a single-column model to quantify the locally coupled impact of subgrid surface variations on the atmosphere during summer. Sensitive coupling days are defined when the model atmosphere exhibits large variations across a range of EFs centered on the analyzed value. Coupling sensitivity exists as both positive feedback (cloudiness increases with EF) and negative feedback (clouds increase with decreasing EF) regimes. The positive regime manifests in shallow convection situations, which are capped by a strengthened inversion and subsidence, restricting the vertical extent of convection to just above the boundary layer. Surfaces with larger EF (greater surface latent heat flux) can inject more moisture into the vertically confined system, lowering the cloud base and an increasing cloud liquid water path (LWP). Negative feedback regimes tend to manifest when large-scale deep convection, such as from mesoscale convective systems and fronts, is advected through the domain, where convection strengthens over surfaces with a lower EF (greater surface sensible heat flux). The invigoration of these systems by the land surface leads to an increase in LWP through strengthened updrafts and stronger coupling between the boundary layer and the free atmosphere. These results apply in the absence of heterogeneity-induced mesoscale circulations, providing a one-dimensional dynamical perspective on the effect of surface heterogeneity. Finally, this study provides a framework of intermediate complexity, lying between parcel theory and high-resolution coupled land–atmosphere modeling, and therefore isolates the relevant first-order processes in land–atmosphere interactions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Groundwater elevation data for monitoring wells within the East and Taylor River basins, Colorado (USA)

This dataset is comprised of temporal variations in groundwater elevation data for the 24 monitoring wells located throughout the East River watershed. Seasonal to annual variations in groundwater elevations are a critical property of mountainous watersheds needed to understand both hydrological and below ground biogeochemical processes. Such data serve as a critical constraint for numerical models describing coupled groundwater-surface water behavior within the watershed. Additionally, the offset between the maximum and minimum groundwater elevations defines the extent of the bedrock weathering zone, with annual excursions in the groundwater hydrographic (i.e., the rising and falling hydrographic limbs) imposing primary controls on bedrock saturation state and redox conditions that govern biogeochemical reactions impacting nitrogen, carbon, and metals cycling. Manufacturer-specific software is used to download pressure data from each transducer, with broadly available spreadsheet software (e.g. Microsoft Excel) used to convert temporal variations in water pressure to elevations in units of meters above mean sea level. As additional monitoring wells are installed within the East River watershed and new groundwater monitoring wells are installed in the Taylor River watershed, temporal groundwater elevation data will be included as a part of this master dataset. Details regarding the metadata associated with each monitoring well location, including well depths, screened intervals, well location coordinates, and bedrock type, are included, as is a standard operating procedure for generating groundwater elevation data from water pressure values recorded by the pressure transducers. This dataset includes: (1) a zip file (East_River_Watershed_Compiled_Groundwater_Elevation_Data_Plots.zip), containing (a) PNG of groundwater hydrographs, (b) a CSV file with groundwater elevation data, and (c) CSV file containing metadata organized by location; (2) an Excel file (East_River_Watershed_Compiled_Groundwater_Elevation_Data_Plots.xlsx) with the groundwater elevation data, groundwater hydrographs, and metadata organized by location; (3) a Word file (Groundwater_elevation_data_protocols.docx) and a PDF file version (Groundwater_elevation_data_protocols.pdf) containing field protocols and methods; (4) a location metadata (locations.csv) file; (5) a file level metadata (flmd.csv); and (6) data dictionary (dd.csv) file.This work was supported by the Watershed Function Science Focus Area at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory funded by the US Department of Energy, Office of Science, Biological and Environmental Research under Contract No. DE-AC02-05CH11231.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Multi-configuration Membrane Distillation Model (MCMD)

Many membrane distillation models have been created to simulate the heat and mass exchange process involved but most of the literature only validates models to a couple of cases with minor configuration changes. Tools are needed that allow tradeoffs between many configurations. The multiconfiguration membrane distillation model handles many configurations. This report introduces membrane distillation, provides theory, and presents the work to verify and validate the model against experimental data from Colorado School of Mines and a lower resolution model created at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. Though more data analysis and testing are needed, an initial look at the model to experimental comparisons indicates that the model correlates to the data well but that design comparisons are likely to be incorrect across a broad range of configurations. More accurate quantification of heat and mass transfer through computational fluid mechanics is suggested.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Decovalex-2019 (Task A Final Report)

The DECOVALEX Project is an on-going international research collaboration, established in 1992, to advance the understanding and modeling of coupled Thermal (T), Hydrological (H), Mechanical (M) and Chemical (C) processes in geological in geological systems. This document is the final report of Task A which was proposed by the DECOVALEX Project and coordinated by the British Geological Survey (BGS), presenting the technical definitions of the problems studied, approaches applied, achievements made and outstanding issues for future research. The purpose of Task A under DECOVALEX-2019 is to better understand the processes governing the advective movement of gas in both low-permeability argillaceous repository host rocks and clay-based engineered barriers. Special attention is given to the mechanisms controlling gas entry, flow and pathway sealing and their impact on the performance of the engineered clay barrier. Previous work suggests gas flow may be accompanied by the creation of dilatant pathways whose properties change temporally and spatially within the medium. Thus, new numerical representations for the quantitative prediction of gas migration fluxes through argillaceous rock formations have been developed. These provide an invaluable tool with which to assess the impact of gas flow on repository layout and therefore design of any future facility. In addition, experience gained through this task is of direct relevance to other clay-based engineering issues where immiscible gas flow is a consideration including shale gas, hydrocarbon migration, carbon capture and storage and landfill design.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DECOVALEX-2019 (Task G Final Report)

The DECOVALEX Project is an on-going international research collaboration, established in 1992, to advance the understanding and modeling of coupled Thermal (T), Hydrological (H), Mechanical (M) and Chemical (C) processes in geological in geological systems. This document is the final report of Task G which was proposed by the Swedish Radiation Safety Authority (SSM) and coordinated by geomecon GmbH, presenting the technical definitions of the problems studied, approaches applied, achievements made and outstanding issues for future research. Task G in DECOVALEX-2019 is primarily concerned with the evolution of transmissivity throughout the lifetime of a repository for radioactive waste, and in particular of spent nuclear fuel, in sparsely fractured and competent crystalline rock masses, and the representation of these processes via numerical simulation. The numerical simulations were to be evaluated for their suitability, and to be validated. Over the course of the work presented here, not only were transmissivity changes and the best approaches to simulate those change examined, but also strategies were to be developed on how to monitor transmissivity change. Guidelines on what a control program and a monitoring system for a repository should include and be able to measure, and how this can be done in practice, was a key objective of the research project.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DECOVALEX-2019 (Task D: INBEB Final Report)

The DECOVALEX Project is an on-going international research collaboration, established in 1992, to advance the understanding and modeling of coupled Thermal (T), Hydrological (H), Mechanical (M) and Chemical (C) processes in geological in geological systems. This document is the final report of Task D which was proposed by the DECOVALEX Project and coordinated by CIMNE_UPC, presenting the technical definitions of the problems studied, approaches applied, achievements made and outstanding issues for future research. Task D of the DECOVALEX 2019 project is devoted to the study of the hydro-mechanical (HM) and thermo-hydro-mechanical (THM) Interactions in Bentonite Engineered Barriers (INBEB). Special attention is paid to the evolution of barrier heterogeneity under transient conditions. A proper understanding of the processes occurring during the transient period requires the appropriate simulation of the behavior of the engineered barrier by means of coupled numerical analyses. In this context, the main objective of the Task is to assess the capabilities of numerical formulations and codes to simulate and interpret the HM and THM behavior of the bentonite barrier, with a particular focus on the final state reached on saturation.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Science Plan for the Deployment of the Third ARM Mobile Facility to the Southeastern United States at the Bankhead National Forest, Alabama (AMF3 BNF)

In 2018, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) held a workshop for the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) (Mather and Voyles 2013) user facility to discuss critical climate challenges and locations where key ARM Mobile Facility (AMF) observational assets could impact Earth system modeling (ESM). As an outcome, the southeast United States (SE U.S.) was identified as a high-priority region to target climate-process studies that promote a deeper understanding of the climate system and bolster ARM interactions with the community to drive ESM advancement. The DOE ARM user facility is a globally recognized leader in deploying and operating strategically located observation sites around the world for studying the properties of aerosols and clouds and their interaction with radiation, precipitation, and the Earth’s surface. In partnering with the DOE Atmospheric System Research (ASR) program, ARM solicited a multi-agency Site Science Team approach to provide input and close interaction with ARM management towards a successful SE U.S. deployment of the ARM third Mobile Facility (AMF3) (Miller et al. 2016). These efforts included identifying key locations, science drivers and instruments, and measurement strategies to address the wider climate-process needs and ESM improvement. Community input served a vital role in establishing, refining, and informing the relevant drivers and decisions regarding this AMF3 deployment. The team has identified Northern Alabama (N. AL) as regionally representative to unlock the key opportunities that will improve our understanding and model representation of aerosol, cloud, and land-surface processes and their couplings in the SE U.S. A defining aspect of the AMF3 deployment is its commitment to long-term (anticipated five-year) observations to mitigate potential seasonal-to-annual variability that often limits appropriate attribution of phenomena to local or larger-scale processes. The proposed location may leverage nearby surface networks and multi-agency and partner assets to enrich this multi-year deployment. One motivation is to understand the role of spatiotemporal variability (thermodynamic, land-surface) across aspects of the climate system, with our AMF3 team anticipating future demands on characterizing the relationships between local-to-regional cloud development and surface processes across a diverse patchwork of natural, managed, and urban landscapes as found throughout the N. AL regions. The main site targets an intact, representative, forested region – the Bankhead National Forest (BNF) – underscoring further team commitment to regionally important land-atmosphere two-way interactive studies “from the canopy to the clouds”, with enhanced tower instrumentation augmenting traditional ARM capabilities adjacent to this site. Multiple supplemental sites will also be distributed across this region, prioritizing added needs for biodiversity. Anticipated high-priority cloud science themes will target N. AL as a regional SE U.S. hotbed for high-impact weather, convective cloud onset, and shallow-to-deep cloud transitioning. Anticipated aerosol drivers will focus on chemical processes that control the evolution of organic aerosol, the seasonality and spatial distribution of water vapor and particle-phase water, and its role on aerosol optical properties. Anticipated land-atmosphere drivers consider the two-way feedbacks between surface influence on aerosols, clouds, and precipitation properties and the associated radiative impacts on plant physiology and canopy-scale fluxes. Emphasis will include the study of the impact of surface processes on aerosols via precursor emission, and on clouds via moisture flux and thermal development.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Methodology to Generate the Decay Gamma Source for a Second Target Station Target Wedge

This report details the specifics of applying the Position-Averaged Method methodology for the calculation of the rotating lasagna-style target wedge activation and the resulting decay gamma source terms. The methodology uses MCNP® Code Version 6.2.0 with the RNUCS patch coupled with CINDER2008 from the AARE V1.0 package. The process begins with model preparations that include ensuring impurities are included in the materials in the regions of interest along with segmentation of the geometry in order to capture the decay gamma source gradients. This report also details the physics models and other MCNP®, CINDER2008, and ADVANTG 3.2.0 related options used to calculate the decay gamma source terms. ADVANTG 3.2.0 is used to generate a weight window set to aid in convergence of the neutron fluxes in the initial MCNP® protons-on-target particle transport calculation to calculate the neutron fluxes and spallation products in the regions of interest. The neutron fluxes and spallation products are then used in the CINDER2008 transmutation calculation, and the decay gamma sources are generated by the AARE_GAMMA_SOURCE_SCRIPT as a part of the AARE V1.0 package. These decay gamma sources include the energy distributions as well as the necessary distributions to sample the location of the source using the cell rejection method. The gamma sources that are produced using the methodology may be used for a wide variety of analysis involving the target wedge. This report includes the material specifications, physics options, proton source term description, geometrical configuration, and post-processing details.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Rocket engine thrust chamber wall temperature distribution calculation and analysis

An analytical computational concept is presented which predicts the temperature profiles along a regeneratively cooled thrust chamber wall on the hot gas side and on the coolant side, and also the coolant bulk temperature profile. The computational model is based upon a coupling of the boundary layer heat transfer process with the heat transfer process through the chamber wall and the coolant flow heat absorption. The calculation is started with approximate temperature distributions for the hot gas side wall and the coolant flow. The iteration process of the computer program is terminated when the total heat transfer rates from the hot gas boundary layer to the wall and from the wall to the coolant are equal. The computer program for the integration of regenerative cooling process to a thrust chamber is kept general such that this program can be used with any boundary layer analysis computer program for temperature profile and heat transfer studies. A sample application of this concept is shown by using a boundary layer analysis program for the RL10 rocket engine thrust chamber.

Saha, H.↗

Dynamic interactions between hypersonic vehicle aerodynamics and propulsion system performance

Described here is the development of a flexible simulation model for scramjet hypersonic propulsion systems. The primary goal is determination of sensitivity of the thrust vector and other system parameters to angle of attack changes of the vehicle. Such information is crucial in design and analysis of control system performance for hypersonic vehicles. The code is also intended to be a key element in carrying out dynamic interaction studies involving the influence of vehicle vibrations on propulsion system/control system coupling and flight stability. Simple models are employed to represent the various processes comprising the propulsion system. A method of characteristics (MOC) approach is used to solve the forebody and external nozzle flow fields. This results in a very fast computational algorithm capable of carrying out the vast number of simulation computations needed in guidance, stability, and control studies. The three-dimensional fore- and aft body (nozzle) geometry is characterized by the centerline profiles as represented by a series of coordinate points and body cross-section curvature. The engine module geometry is represented by an adjustable vertical grid to accommodate variations of the field parameters throughout the inlet and combustor. The scramjet inlet is modeled as a two-dimensional supersonic flow containing adjustable sidewall wedges and multiple fuel injection struts. The inlet geometry including the sidewall wedge angles, the number of injection struts, their sweepback relative to the vehicle reference line, and strut cross-section are user selectable. Combustion is currently represented by a Rayleigh line calculation including corrections for variable gas properties; improved models are being developed for this important element of the propulsion flow field. The program generates (1) variation of thrust magnitude and direction with angle of attack, (2) pitching moment and line of action of the thrust vector, (3) pressure and temperature distributions throughout the system, and (4) performance parameters such as thrust coefficient, specific impulse, mass flow rates, and equivalence ratio. Preliminary results are in good agreement with available performance data for systems resembling the NASP vehicle configuration.

Flandro, G. A.↗

On the spectral stability of time integration algorithms for a class of constrained dynamics problems

Incomplete field formulations have recently been the subject of intense research because of their potential in coupled analysis of independently modeled substructures, adaptive refinement, domain decomposition, and parallel processing. This paper discusses the design and analysis of time-integration algorithms for these formulations and emphasizes the treatment of their inter-subdomain constraint equations. These constraints are shown to introduce a destabilizing effect in the dynamic system that can be analyzed by investigating the behavior of the time-integration algorithm at infinite and zero frequencies. Three different approaches for constructing penalty-free unconditionally stable second-order accurate solution procedures for this class of hybrid formulations are presented, discussed and illustrated with numerical examples. The theoretical results presented in this paper also apply to a large family of nonlinear multibody dynamics formulations. Some of the algorithms outlined herein are important alternatives to the popular technique consisting of transforming differential/algebraic equations into ordinary differential equations via the introduction of a stabilization term that depends on arbitrary constants and that influences the computed so1ution.

Farhat, Charbel↗

Powder Bed Fusion Laser Beam Metals Additive Manufacturing: Process Monitoring Approaches for Qualification and Certification

The use of in-situ process monitoring is of interest to lower the cost of inspection for the qualification of powder bed fusion laser beam metal (PBF-LB/M) additively manufactured (AM) parts. Precise monitoring of the PBF-LB/M AM build process constitutes a multi-scale and multi-discipline task. There are several significant challenges to the in-situ approach: the synchronization of sensor signals to process steps; the physical interpretation and classification of sensor signals; managing very large datasets; and comparing the inputs with the observed monitoring signals. At NASA Langley Research Center, a configurable architecture additive testbed has been developed to monitor the build process with synchronized sensors. The philosophy and method adopted for the synchronization of the cameras with laser power and position throughout a complex PBF-LB/M AM build will be described. The synchronized in-situ monitoring signals are compared with ex-situ nondestructive inspection, x-ray computed tomography (XCT). Such comparisons permit a better understanding of how the sequential process actions of LPBF-AM can affect build quality. The multi-scale and complex process of printing additively manufactured (AM) parts can have unexpected, but predictable, build conditions that result in material microstructure variability. This presentation will describe an additive manufacturing model-based process metric (AM-PM) computational method that is a fully parallel reduced order modeling approach developed to evaluate the evolution of AM processes. This method couples the known sequence of the AM process with a physically informed nearest neighbors’ calculation to map the conditions of a part-scale build. The result is a map of the build that is derived directly from build files or in-situ process monitoring sensors. The methodology of the approach will be described and mapped to the porosity observed from XCT for a complex PBF-LB/M build. Such comparative results develop understanding of how the sequential process actions can affect the PBF-LB/M AM build quality and microstructure variability.

Laser Powder Bed Fusion↗

Increasing Contribution of the Atmospheric Vertical Motion to Precipitation in a Warming Climate

Global warming already influences precipitation, with more intense precipitation in many locations. Although the ‘wet-get-wetter, dry-get-drier’ tendency in mean precipitation holds in many locations, the situations for precipitation extremes are more complex, due to changes in dynamic and thermodynamic influences on atmospheric moisture distributions. Here, we build a dynamically interactive atmospheric moisture model for the present (2006–2025) and the future climate (2081–2100), using outputs from coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models. We find that the dynamic process of vertical advection of moisture dominates the same-day precipitation, while the smaller impact of the thermodynamic process provides available moisture for several days. As climate warms, we find that the dynamical-induced precipitation more completely exhausts the vertically-integrated moisture and the distribution of the dynamic process’s impact on precipitation exhibits a greater spread in the warmer future. The dynamical process is primarily responsible for more extreme heavy precipitation as climate warms, at all latitudes.

Climate and Earth system modelling↗