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DOE OSTI2020

dGen™ (Distributed Generation Market Demand Model) [SWR-17-09]

The Distributed Generation Market Demand (dGen™) model is a geospatially rich, bottom-up, market-penetration model that simulates the potential adoption of distributed energy resources (DERs) for residential, commercial, and industrial entities in the continental United States through 2050. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) developed dGen to analyze the key factors that will affect future market demand for distributed solar, wind, storage, and other DER technologies in the United States within a single modeling platform. The dGen model builds on, extends, and provides significant advances over NREL’s SolarDS model (Denholm et al. 2009), which is now deprecated. All Authors and Contributors are alphabetized in the Developers section with Authors of Code listed first, followed by Contributors and do not reflect equal contributions.

Sigrin, Benjamin↗

DOE OSTI2020

dGen™ (Distributed Generation Market Demand Model) [SWR-17-09]

Preus, Robert↗

DOE OSTI2012

Demand Response Dispatch Tool

The Demand Response (DR) Dispatch Tool uses price profiles to dispatch demand response resources and create load modifying profiles. These annual profiles are used as inputs to production cost models and regional planning tools (e.g., PROMOD). The tool has been effectively implemented in transmission planning studies conducted by the Western Electricity Coordinating Council via its Transmission Expansion Planning and Policy Committee. The DR Dispatch Tool can properly model the dispatch of DR resources for both reliability and economic conditions.

Satchwell, Andrew↗

DOE OSTI2012

A Hybrid Demand Response Simulator Version 1.0

A hybrid demand response simulator is developed to test different control algorithms for centralized and distributed demand response (DR) programs in a small distribution power grid. The HDRS is designed to model a wide variety of DR services such as peak having, load shifting, arbitrage, spinning reserves, load following, regulation, emergency load shedding, etc. The HDRS does not model the dynamic behaviors of the loads, rather, it simulates the load scheduling and dispatch process. The load models include TCAs (water heaters, air conditioners, refrigerators, freezers, etc) and non-TCAs (lighting, washer, dishwasher, etc.) The ambient temperature changes, thermal resistance, capacitance, and the unit control logics can be modeled for TCA loads. The use patterns of the non-TCA can be modeled by probability of use and probabilistic durations. Some of the communication network characteristics, such as delays and errors, can also be modeled. Most importantly, because the simulator is modular and greatly simplified the thermal models for TCA loads, it is very easy and fast to be used to test and validate different control algorithms in a simulated environment.

Lu, Ning↗

DOE OSTI2019

Joint Optimization Scheme for the Planning and Operations of Shared Autonomous Electric Vehicle Fleets Serving Mobility on Demand

As the transportation sector undergoes three major transformations—electrification, shared/on-demand mobility, and automation—there are new challenges to analyzing the impacts of these trends on both the transportation system and the power sector. Most models that analyze the requirements of fleets of shared autonomous electric vehicles (SAEVs) operate at the scale of an urban region, or smaller. A quadratically constrained, quadratic programming problem is formulated, designed to model the requirements of SAEVs at a national scale. The size of the SAEV fleet, the necessary charging infrastructure, the fleet charging schedule, and the dispatch required to serve demand for trips in a region are treated as decision variables. By minimizing both the amortized cost of the fleet and chargers as well as the operational costs of charging, it is possible to explore the coupled interactions between system design and operation. To apply the model at a national scale, key complications about fleet operations are simplified; but a detailed agent-based regional simulation model to parameterize those simplifications is leveraged. Preliminary results are presented, finding that all mobility in the United States (U.S.) currently served by 276 million personally owned vehicles could be served by 12.5 million SAEVs at a cost of $\$ 0.27$/vehicle-mile or $ 0.18/passenger-mile. In conclusion, the energy requirements for this fleet would be 1142 GWh/day (8.5% of 2017 U.S. electricity demand) and the peak charging load 76.7 GW (11% of U.S. power peak). Several model sensitivities are explored, and it is found that sharing is a key factor in the analysis.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2020

On-demand indistinguishable single photons from an efficient and pure source based on a Rydberg ensemble

Single photons coupled to atomic systems have shown to be a promising platform for developing quantum technologies. Yet a bright on-demand, highly pure, and highly indistinguishable single-photon source compatible with atomic platforms is lacking. In this work, we demonstrate such a source based on a strongly interacting Rydberg system. The large optical nonlinearities in a blockaded Rydberg ensemble convert coherent light into a single collective excitation that can be coherently retrieved as a quantum field. We simultaneously observe a fully single-mode (spectral, temporal, spatial, and polarization) efficiency up to 0.098(2), a detector-background-subtracted g ( 2 ) = 5.0 ( 1.6 ) × <#comment/> 10 − <#comment/> 4 , and indistinguishability of 0.980(7), at an average photon production rate of 1.18 ( 2 ) × <#comment/> 10 4 s − <#comment/> 1 . All of these make this system promising for scalable quantum information applications. Furthermore, we investigate the effects of contaminant Rydberg excitations on the source efficiency and observed single-mode efficiencies up to 0.18(2) for lower photon rates. Finally, recognizing that many quantum information protocols require a single photon in a fully single mode, we introduce metrics that take into account all degrees of freedom to benchmark the performance of on-demand sources.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2012

Renewable Electricity Futures Study, Volume 3: End-Use Electricity Demand

The Renewable Electricity Futures (RE Futures) Study investigated the challenges and impacts of achieving very high renewable electricity generation levels in the contiguous United States by 2050. The analysis focused on the sufficiency of the geographically diverse U.S. renewable resources to meet electricity demand over future decades, the hourly operational characteristics of the U.S. gridwith high levels of variable wind and solar generation, and the potential implications of deploying high levels of renewables in the future. RE Futures focused on technical aspects of high penetration of renewable electricity; it did not focus on how to achieve such a future through policy or other measures. Given the inherent uncertainties involved with analyzing alternative long-term energyfutures as well as the multiple pathways that might be taken to achieve higher levels of renewable electricity supply, RE Futures explored a range of scenarios to investigate and compare the impacts of renewable electricity penetration levels (30%-90%), future technology performance improvements, potential constraints to renewable electricity development, and future electricity demand growthassumptions. RE Futures was led by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT).

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2013

Optimization of Ventilation Energy Demands and Indoor Air Quality in the ZEBRAlliance Homes

High-performance homes require that ventilation energy demands and indoor air quality (IAQ) be simultaneously optimized. Researchers have primarily addressed these two areas independently because of the assumption that their goals have to be mutually exclusive. This assumption is based on the fact that the typical mechanism to reduce the concentration of indoor air pollutants has been dilution through increased ventilation, which causes heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) units to consume more energy. High-performance homes aim to provide the essential energy end-uses (for example, water heating, refrigeration, space heating, and air conditioning) in an energy efficient manner. Given that IAQ is among these essential energy end-uses, we investigated means to optimize the concentration of indoor air pollutants and ventilation energy demands. To this end, we conducted tests in four houses located in Oak Ridge, TN, that were 11 to 20 months old, energy efficient (i.e., expected to consume 50% less energy than a house built per the 2006 International Residential Code), airtight (i.e., natural ventilation rate ~0.02 to 0.2 h -1 ), unoccupied, and unfurnished. Our evaluation consisted of identifying air pollutants of concern in these homes that could generally serve as indicators of IAQ, and conducting field experiments and computer simulations to determine the effectiveness and energy required by various techniques that lessened the concentration of these contaminants.

formaldehyde↗

DOE OSTI2014

Dynamic Optimized Advanced Scheduling of Bandwidth Demands for Large-Scale Science Applications (Final Report)

In this project, developed scheduling frameworks for dynamic bandwidth demands for large-scale science applications. In particular, we developed scheduling algorithms for dynamic bandwidth demands in this project. Apart from theoretical approaches such as Integer Linear Programming, Tabu Search and Genetic Algorithm heuristics, we have utilized practical data from ESnet OSCARS project (from our DOE lab partners) to conduct realistic simulations of our approaches. We have disseminated our work through conference paper presentations and journal papers and a book chapter. In this project we addressed the problem of scheduling of lightpaths over optical wavelength division multiplexed (WDM) networks. We published several conference papers and journal papers on this topic. We also addressed the problems of joint allocation of computing, storage and networking resources in Grid/Cloud networks and proposed energy-efficient mechanisms for operation optical WDM networks.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2014

Interoperability of Demand Response Resources Demonstration in NY

The Interoperability of Demand Response Resources Demonstration in NY (Interoperability Project) was awarded to Con Edison in 2009. The objective of the project was to develop and demonstrate methodologies to enhance the ability of customer sited Demand Response resources to integrate more effectively with electric delivery companies and regional transmission organizations.

Wellington, Andre↗

DOE OSTI2013

Modeling the Capacity and Emissions Impacts of Reduced Electricity Demand. Part 1. Methodology and Preliminary Results

Policies aimed at energy conservation and efficiency have broad environmental and economic impacts. Even if these impacts are relatively small, they may be significant compared to the cost of implementing the policy. Methodologies that quantify the marginal impacts of reduced demand for energy have an important role to play in developing accurate measures of both the benefits and costs of a given policy choice. This report presents a methodology for estimating the impacts of reduced demand for electricity on the electric power sector as a whole. The approach uses the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS), a mid-range energy forecast model developed and maintained by the U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration (EIA)(DOE EIA 2013). The report is organized as follows: In the rest of this section the traditional NEMS-BT approach is reviewed and an outline of the new reduced form NEMS methodology is presented. Section 2 provides an overview of how the NEMS model works, and describes the set of NEMS-BT runs that are used as input to the reduced form approach. Section 3 presents our NEMS-BT simulation results and post-processing methods. In Section 4 we show how the NEMS-BT output can be generalized to apply to a broader set of end-uses. In Section 5 we disuss the application of this approach to policy analysis, and summarize some of the issues that will be further investigated in Part 2 of this study.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2015

Expected international demand for woody and herbaceous feedstock

The development of a U.S. bioenergy market and ultimately ‘bioeconomy’ has primarily been investigated with a national focus. Limited attention has been given to the potential impacts of international market developments. The goal of this project is to advance the current State of Technology of a single biorefinery to the global level providing quantitative estimates on how international markets may influence the domestic feedstock supply costs. The scope of the project is limited to feedstock that is currently available and new crops being developed to be used in a future U.S. bioeconomy including herbaceous residues (e.g., corn stover), woody biomass (e.g., pulpwood), and energy crops (e.g., switchgrass). The timeframe is set to the periods of 2022, 2030, and 2040 to align with current policy targets (e.g., the RFS2) and future updates of the Billion Ton data. This particular milestone delivers demand volumes for generic woody and herbaceous feedstocks for the main (net) importing regions along the above timeframes. The regional focus of the study is the European Union (EU), currently the largest demand region for U.S. pellets made from pulpwood and forest residues. The pellets are predominantly used in large-scale power plants (>5MWel) in the United Kingdom (UK), the Netherlands (NL), Belgium (BE), and Denmark (DK).

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2012

Renewable Electricity Futures Study - Volume 3: End-Use Electricity Demand

The Renewable Electricity Futures (RE Futures) Study investigated the challenges and impacts of achieving very high renewable electricity generation levels in the contiguous United States by 2050. The analysis focused on the sufficiency of the geographically diverse U.S. renewable resources to meet electricity demand over future decades, the hourly operational characteristics of the U.S. grid with high levels of variable wind and solar generation, and the potential implications of deploying high levels of renewables in the future. RE Futures focused on technical aspects of high penetration of renewable electricity; it did not focus on how to achieve such a future through policy or other measures. Given the inherent uncertainties involved with analyzing alternative long-term energy futures as well as the multiple pathways that might be taken to achieve higher levels of renewable electricity supply, RE Futures explored a range of scenarios to investigate and compare the impacts of renewable electricity penetration levels (30%–90%), future technology performance improvements, potential constraints to renewable electricity development, and future electricity demand growth assumptions. RE Futures was led by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). Learn more at the RE Futures website. http://www.nrel.gov/analysis/re_futures/

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2015

Economic Rebalancing and Electricity Demand in China

Understanding the relationship between economic growth and electricity use is essential for power systems planning. This need is particularly acute now in China, as the Chinese economy is going through a transition to a more consumption and service oriented economy. This study uses 20 years of provincial data on gross domestic product (GDP) and electricity consumption to examine the relationship between these two factors. We observe a plateauing effect of electricity consumption in the richest provinces, as the electricity demand saturates and the economy develops and moves to a more service-based economy. There is a wide range of forecasts for electricity use in 2030, ranging from 5,308 to 8,292 kWh per capita, using different estimating functions, as well as in existing studies. It is therefore critical to examine more carefully the relationship between electricity use and economic development, as China transitions to a new growth phase that is likely to be less energy and resource intensive. The results of this study suggest that policymakers and power system planners in China should seriously re-evaluate power demand projections and the need for new generation capacity to avoid over-investment that could lead to stranded generation assets.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2016

Distributed Generation Market Demand Model (dGen): Documentation

The Distributed Generation Market Demand model (dGen) is a geospatially rich, bottom-up, market-penetration model that simulates the potential adoption of distributed energy resources (DERs) for residential, commercial, and industrial entities in the continental United States through 2050. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) developed dGen to analyze the key factors that will affect future market demand for distributed solar, wind, storage, and other DER technologies in the United States. The new model builds off, extends, and replaces NREL's SolarDS model (Denholm et al. 2009a), which simulates the market penetration of distributed PV only. Unlike the SolarDS model, dGen can model various DER technologies under one platform--it currently can simulate the adoption of distributed solar (the dSolar module) and distributed wind (the dWind module) and link with the ReEDS capacity expansion model (Appendix C). The underlying algorithms and datasets in dGen, which improve the representation of customer decision making as well as the spatial resolution of analyses (Figure ES-1), also are improvements over SolarDS.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2015

State Approaches to Demand Reduction Induced Price Effects: Examining How Energy Efficiency Can Lower Prices for All

Effects (DRIPE) as a real, quantifiable benefit of energy efficiency and demand response programs. DRIPE is a measurement of the value of demand reductions in terms of the decrease in wholesale energy prices, resulting in lower total expenditures on electricity or natural gas across a given grid. Crucially for policymakers and consumer advocates, DRIPE savings accrue not only to the subset of customers who consume less, but to all consumers. Rate-paying customers realize DRIPE savings when price reductions across an electricity or natural gas system are passed on to all retail customers as lower rates (depending upon regulation and market structure, residual savings may be wholly or partially retained by utilities). DRIPE savings, though seemingly small in terms of percent price reductions or dollars per household, can amount to hundreds of millions of dollars per year across entire states or grids. Therefore, accurately assessing DRIPE benefits can help to ensure appropriate programs are designed and implemented for energy efficiency measures. This paper reviews the existing knowledge and experience from select U.S. states regarding DRIPE (including New York and Ohio), and the potential for expanded application of the concept of DRIPE by regulators. Policymakers and public utility commissions have a critical role to play in setting the methodology for determining DRIPE, encouraging its capture by utilities, and allocating DRIPE benefits among utilities, various groups of customers, and/or society at large. While the methodologies for estimating DRIPE benefits are still being perfected, policymakers can follow the examples of states such as Maryland and Vermont in including conservative DRIPE estimates in their resource planning.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2016

Coordinating Demand-Side Efficiency Evaluation, Measurement and Verification Among Western States: Options for Documenting Energy and Non-Energy Impacts for the Power Sector

Demand-side energy efficiency (efficiency) represents a low-cost opportunity to reduce electricity consumption and demand and provide a wide range of non-energy benefits, including avoiding air pollution. Efficiency-related energy and non-energy impacts are determined and documented by implementing evaluation, measurement and verification (EM&V) systems. This technical brief describes efficiency EM&V coordination strategies that Western states can consider taking on together, outlines EM&V-related products that might be appropriate for multistate coordination, and identifies some implications of coordination. Coordinating efficiency EM&V activities can save both time and costs for state agencies and stakeholders engaged in efficiency activities and can be particularly beneficial for multiple states served by the same utility. First, the brief summarizes basic information on efficiency, its myriad potential benefits and EM&V for assessing those benefits. Second, the brief introduces the concept of multistate EM&V coordination in the context of assessing such benefits, including achievement of state and federal goals to reduce air pollutants.1 Next, the brief presents three coordination strategy options for efficiency EM&V: information clearinghouse/exchange, EM&V product development, and a regional energy efficiency tracking system platform. The brief then describes five regional EM&V products that could be developed on a multistate basis: EM&V reporting formats, database of consistent deemed electricity savings values, glossary of definitions and concepts, efficiency EM&V methodologies, and EM&V professional standards or accreditation processes. Finally, the brief discusses options for next steps that Western states can take to consider multistate coordination on efficiency EM&V. Appendices provide background information on efficiency and EM&V, as well as definitions and suggested resources on the covered topics. This brief is intended to inform state public utility commissions, boards for public and consumer-owned utilities, state energy offices and air agencies, and other organizations involved in discussions about the use of efficiency EM&V.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2014

Enabling On-Demand Scientific Workflows on a Federated Cloud

The Fermilab Grid and Cloud Computing Department and the KISTI Global Science experimental Data hub Center are working on a multi-year Collaborative Research and Development Agreement.With the knowledge developed in the first year on how to provision and manage a federation of virtual machines through Cloud management systems. In this second year, we expanded the work on provisioning and federation, increasing both scale and diversity of solutions, and we started to build on-demand services on the established fabric, introducing the paradigm of Platform as a Service to assist with the execution of scientific workflows. We have enabled scientific workflows of stakeholders to run on multiple cloud resources at the scale of 1,000 concurrent machines. The demonstrations have been in the areas of (a) Virtual Infrastructure Automation and Provisioning, (b) Interoperability and Federation of Cloud Resources, and (c) On-demand Services for ScientificWorkflows.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗