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Support for Advanced Fuel Fabrication MC&A Approaches

This report summarizes the key activities of the Material Protection, Accounting, and Control Technologies (MPACT) program’s safeguards training work package for FY25. The work focused on two main areas: domestic safeguards training and the development of new technologies for nuclear material accounting and control (NMAC). A key development during this FY was the delivery of NMAC statistics for US Nuclear Regulatory Commission requirements refresher course. The course objective was to assist industry in meeting the MC&A program requirements for fuel cycle facilities; this training focused on front-end bulk fuel cycle processes. At the same time, a report was prepared on the research output of an effort that focused on the benefits of commercial fuel debundling for NMAC and waste management. The MPACT team evaluated various technologies and proposed a fuel debundling detector that integrates gamma spectroscopy and neutron detection as the most practical solution. The scope of activities under this work package for FY26 focuses on developing a fundamental nuclear material control plan, also known as MC&A plan, for tristructural isotropic (TRISO) fuel fabrication facilities. This plan will address the various NMAC requirements for facilities that handle Category II.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Scaling Studies for Advanced High Temperature Reactor Concepts, Final Technical Report: October 2014—December 2017

Computer simulations of nuclear reactor thermal-hydraulic phenomena are often used in the design and licensing of nuclear reactor systems. In order to assess the accuracy of these computer simulations, computer codes and methods are often validated against experimental data. This experimental data must be of sufficiently high quality in order to conduct a robust validation exercise. In addition, this experimental data is generally collected at experimental facilities that are of a smaller scale than the reactor systems that are being simulated due to cost considerations. Therefore, smaller scale test facilities must be designed and constructed in such a fashion to ensure that the prototypical behavior of a particular nuclear reactor system is preserved. The work completed through this project has resulted in scaling analyses and conceptual design development for a test facility capable of collecting code validation data for the following high temperature gas reactor systems and events— 1. Passive natural circulation core cooling system, 2. pebble bed gas reactor concept, 3. General Atomics Energy Multiplier Module reactor, and 4. prismatic block design steam-water ingress event. In the event that code validation data for these systems or events is needed in the future, significant progress in the design of an appropriate integral-type test facility has already been completed as a result of this project. Where applicable, the next step would be to begin the detailed design development and material procurement. As part of this project applicable scaling analyses were completed and test facility design requirements developed. Conceptual designs were developed for the implementation of these design requirements at the Oregon State University (OSU) High Temperature Test Facility (HTTF). The original HTTF is based on a ¼-scale model of a high temperature gas reactor concept with the capability for both forced and natural circulation flow through a prismatic core with an electrical heat source. The peak core region temperature capability is 1400°C. As part of this project, an inventory of test facilities that could be used for these experimental programs was completed. Several of these facilities showed some promise, however, upon further investigation it became clear that only the OSU HTTF had the power and/or peak temperature limits that would allow for the experimental programs envisioned herein. Thus the conceptual design and feasibility study development focused on examining the feasibility of configuring the current HTTF to collect validation data for these experimental programs. In addition to the scaling analyses and conceptual design development, a test plan was developed for the envisioned modified test facility. This test plan included a discussion on an appropriate shakedown test program as well as the specific matrix tests. Finally, a feasibility study was completed to determine the cost and schedule considerations that would be important to any test program developed to investigate these designs and events.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Developing and Implementing the Data Mining Algorithms in RAVEN

The RAVEN code is becoming a comprehensive tool to perform probabilistic risk assessment, uncertainty quantification, and verification and validation. The RAVEN code is being developed to support many programs and to provide a set of methodologies and algorithms for advanced analysis. Scientific computer codes can generate enormous amounts of data. To post-process and analyze such data might, in some cases, take longer than the initial software runtime. Data mining algorithms/methods help in recognizing and understanding patterns in the data, and thus discover knowledge in databases. The methodologies used in the dynamic probabilistic risk assessment or in uncertainty and error quantification analysis couple system/physics codes with simulation controller codes, such as RAVEN. RAVEN introduces both deterministic and stochastic elements into the simulation while the system/physics code model the dynamics deterministically. A typical analysis is performed by sampling values of a set of parameter values. A major challenge in using dynamic probabilistic risk assessment or uncertainty and error quantification analysis for a complex system is to analyze the large number of scenarios generated. Data mining techniques are typically used to better organize and understand data, i.e. recognizing patterns in the data. This report focuses on development and implementation of Application Programming Interfaces (APIs) for different data mining algorithms, and the application of these algorithms to different databases.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

An Integrated Energy Systems Prototype Human-System Interface for a Steam Extraction Loop System to Support Joint Electricity-Hydrogen Flexible Operations

Due to increasing economic competition from renewables and combined-cycle natural gas plants, nuclear power plants are looking toward flexible operations to enhance their cost competitiveness. The Integrated Energy Systems project under the Light Water Reactor Sustainability program of the U.S. Department of Energy focuses on joint electricity-hydrogen flexible operations. Joint electricity-hydrogen flexible operations entail the nuclear power plant diverting thermal energy via main steam to a hydrogen production plant located nearby. The steam serves to enhance the efficiency of the hydrogen production. Furthermore, high temperature electrolysis requires a large amount of electricity, which the plant can also provide. The plant provides steam and electricity to the hydrogen plant throughout the day, but during peak demand hours the nuclear power plant returns to solely providing electricity to meet the high demand. Through this flexible concept of operations, the plant can optimize the thermal energy it produces without having to maneuver the power of the plant. This report documents the human factors process to design and develop a prototype human-system interface for the steam extraction loop that serves as the conduit between the nuclear power plant and the adjacent hydrogen plant. The design process followed the human factors guidelines set by NUREG-0711, Human Factors Engineering Program Review Model (O’Hara, Higgins, & Fleger, 2012), and expanded upon by the Guideline for Operational Nuclear Usability and Knowledge Elicitation (GONUKE; Boring, Ulrich, Joe, & Lew, 2015; Boring, Lew, & Ulrich, 2016). The design process entailed operator interviews to determine the concept of operations for the steam extraction loop, a review and adaptation of digital interface design concepts developed by the team in prior projects, an iterative design process, and reviews conducted by both operators and human factors experts. Several versions of the prototype human-system interface were developed. Operators were interviewed to determine what design features they found useful and would like to see in the interface. The design underwent a review by human factors experts against NUREG-0700, Human Interface Design Review Guidelines (U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, 2019), to ensure compliance with the latest human factors standards for digital interfaces in nuclear applications. The design was then prototyped as a functional windows-based application integrated with the Generic Pressurized Water Reactor simulator modified to include the steam extraction loop. The simulation is supported by the Human Systems Simulation Laboratory at Idaho National Laboratory, which supports operator-in-the-loop testing. This is an ongoing project and the next phase of the project entails performing an operator-in-the-loop usability study to evaluate the interface and examine the proposed concept of operations to extraction steam from the nuclear power plant for delivery to the coupled hydrogen production plant.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Insights from Smart Meters. Ramp-up, dependability, and short-term persistence of savings from Home Energy Reports

Smart meters, smart thermostats, and other new technologies provide previously unavailable high-frequency and location-specific energy usage data. Many utilities are now able to capture real-time, customer specific hourly interval usage data for a large proportion of their residential and small commercial customers. These vast, constantly growing streams of rich data (or, “big data”) have the potential to provide novel insights into key policy questions about how people make energy decisions. The richness and granularity of these data enable many types of creative and cutting-edge analytics. Technically sophisticated and rigorous statistical techniques can be used to pull useful insights out of this high-frequency, human-focused data. In this series, we call this “behavior analytics.” This kind of analytics has the potential to provide tremendous value to a wide range of energy programs. For example, disaggregated and heterogeneous information about actual energy use allows energy efficiency (EE) and/or demand response (DR) program implementers to target specific programs to specific households; enables evaluation, measurement and verification (EM&V) of energy efficiency programs to be performed on a much shorter time horizon than was previously possible; and may provide better insights into the energy and peak hour savings associated with EE and DR programs (e.g., behavior-based (BB) programs). The goal of this series is to enable evidence-based and data-driven decision making by policy makers and industry stakeholders, including program planners, program administrators, utilities, state regulatory agencies, and evaluators. We focus on research findings that are immediately relevant.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Large Scale Metal Additive Manufacturing with Wolf Robotics

Large Scale Metal Additive Manufacturing (LSMAM) is a new additive manufacturing (AM) technology based on the metal arc welding. A continuously fed metal wire is melted by an electric arc that forms between the wire and the substrate, and deposited in the form of a bead of molten metal along the predetermined path. Objects are manufactured one layer at a time starting from the base plate. The final properties of the manufactured object are dependent on its geometry and the metal deposition path, in addition to depending on the basic welding process parameters. The focus of the first phase of this two phase program was the installation, initial operation and development of processing parameters to demonstrate the ability to manufacture metal large scale parts. If successful, the second phase will focus on the development, and validation, of process models for the system.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Contech to Accelerate Cleantech: Seeding Emerging Innovation Programs for Construction Productivity and Energy Efficiency Integration; Preprint

Investments in U.S.-based start-ups that focus on advanced building construction technologies to increase construction productivity (contech) surged to approximately $3.1 billion in 2018 (as per Crunchbase data). More recently, emerging programs by government funding agencies, philanthropic foundations, and venture capitalists have been instrumental in supporting contech start-ups for innovations that increase productivity of energy efficiency integration and accelerate clean energy technologies (cleantech) for the buildings sector. These programs include R&D support and funding mechanisms for contech and cleantech. Traditionally, contech and cleantech are considered as two different innovation ecosystems. To enhance and scale up energy efficiency in buildings, creative programs that bring together contech and cleantech are critical. This paper provides a landscape assessment of the "contech-for-cleantech" innovation ecosystem in the U.S. and its impact in accelerating technology readiness and the development pipeline of "contech-for-cleantech". Technologies highlighted are robotics for retrofits, prefabrication of energy-efficient products, and advanced manufacturing of low-carbon net-zero buildings construction. Programs discussed include those led by (1) government funding agencies: American-Made Challenges with prizes like E-ROBOT for retrofits with robotics, (2) philanthropic foundations: Wells Fargo Innovation Incubator (IN2) that includes focus on energy efficiency and prefabrication, and (3) venture capitalists: Shadow Ventures Green Building Accelerator program which provides funding support to start-ups with ambitious plans for decarbonizing the built environment. This paper will also expand upon robust processes and criteria involved in judging and down-selection of start-ups through vetting and feedback from national lab researchers and industry experts in both cleantech and contech.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Transformational Challenge Reactor preconceptual core design studies

In the nuclear industry, a manufacturing-informed design approach has the potential to yield the most benefit from advanced manufacturing. By leveraging advanced materials, data science, and rapid testing and deployment, manufacturing-informed design can drive down costs and development times, ultimately improving future commercial viability. This approach is being demonstrated in the US Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy (DOE-NE) Transformational Challenge Reactor (TCR) program. Preconceptual design activities for TCR have been focused on analyzing and maturing four reactor core design concepts: two fast-spectrum and two thermal-spectrum systems. Furthermore, the designs were iteratively modified and analyzed, and subcomponents were manufactured in parallel over weeks instead of months or years. To meet key program initiatives (e.g., timeline and material use), several constraints—including fissile material availability, component availability, materials compatibility, and additive manufacturing capabilities—were factored into the design effort, yielding small cores less than one cubic meter in volume with near-term viability. Additionally, the TCR program has made significant progress on development of advanced moderator materials such as yttrium hydride, advancing the feasibility of gas-cooled thermal spectrum systems using less than 250 kg of high-assay low enriched uranium (HALEU) and occupying less than 1 m3. Each of the two resulting thermal designs uses a different fuel form: traditional UO2 ceramic fuel and tristructural isotropic (advanced TRISO) fuel particles embedded inside a SiC matrix. Core neutronics and thermal performance for these systems were assessed and summarized. Evaluation of the performance metrics for these two moderated designs has yielded the downselected TCR design: a TRISO-fueled and yttrium hydride moderated gas-cooled reactor.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Economic Assessment of Federal Scientific Programs

An important aspect of ensuring national security is state regulation of industry through federal institutes. In view of the scale of the threats to Russia’s national security, the constraints on federal resources, and the critical state of industrial enterprises, it is important to review the strategy and tools of state regulation. In particular, a change in orientation is required, with a focus on novel and nontraditional organizational and economic programs and with cross-financing of defense and civilian projects. However, that is associated with changes not only in the procedures for assessing the effectiveness of such programs but also in the concept of effectiveness itself. Accordingly, it is necessary to deal with a set of concepts and characteristics of effectiveness and also to develop basic procedures for the assessment of effectiveness. That reduces to assessing the expected results of an innovative project and the effectiveness of its implementation. A method for generating such predictive estimates is proposed.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Research and Technology Development Activities to Address the DOE-EM Environmental Mercury Challenge

Human activities have altered trace metal distributions globally. This is especially true for the trace metal mercury (Hg), a pervasive global pollutant that can be methylated to form highly toxic methylmercury (MeHg), which bioaccumulates in aquatic food webs, endangering humans and other biota. Currently there are more than 3,000 mercury-contaminated sites identified worldwide and the United Nations Environment Programme has recently highlighted the risk of this contamination to human health [1, 2]. The Oak Ridge Reservation (ORR) represents an example of one of these mercury-contaminated sites. Unlike other contaminants metals, radionuclides, and organic solvents that impact the Department of Energy Office of Environmental Management (DOE-EM) cleanup program at the ORR and other DOE sites, mercury has several unique characteristics that make environmental remediation of the Y-12 National Security Complex one of the most formidable challenges ever encountered. These distinctive physicochemical properties for mercury include the following: it is a liquid at ambient temperature and pressure; it is the only metal that biomagnifies; and it is the only contaminant transported as a cation, as a dissolved or gaseous elemental metal (similar to an organic solvent), or as both a cation and a dissolved or gaseous elemental metal under environmental conditions. Because of these complexities, implementing cost effective and sustainable solutions that reduce mercury flux from various primary and secondary contamination sources will require linking basic science understanding and applied research advancements into Oak Ridge Office of Environmental Management s (OREM) cleanup process. Currently, DOE is investing in mercury-related research through a variety of programs, including the Office of Science sponsored Critical Interfaces Science Focus Area, EM headquarters sponsored Applied Field Research Initiative, OREM-sponsored Lower East Fork Poplar Creek (LEFPC) Mercury Technology Development Program, Small Business Innovative Research (SBIR), and EM s Minority Serving Institutions Partnership Program. Collectively, these multi-institutional and multidisciplinary programs are generating new tools, knowledge, and remediation approaches that will enable efficient cleanup of mercury contaminated systems locally and globally. In this talk we will highlight the progress made to date in addressing key knowledge gaps required to solve this watershed-scale conundrum.

Pierce, Eric M↗

Bulk Electrical Cable Non-Destructive Examination Methods for Nuclear Power Plant Cable Aging Management Programs

This Pacific Northwest National Laboratory milestone report describes progress to date on the investigation of nondestructive test methods focusing particularly on bulk electrical test methods that provide key indicators of cable aging and damage. The work includes a review of relevant literature as well as hands-on experimental verification of inspection capabilities. As nuclear power plants consider applying for second, or subsequent, license renewal to extend their operating period from 60 years to 80 years, it is important to understand how the materials installed in plant systems and components will age during that time and develop aging management programs to assure continued safe operation under normal and design basis events (DBE). Normal component and system tests typically confirm the cables can perform their normal operational function. The focus of the cable test program, however, is directed toward the more demanding challenge of assuring the cable function under accident or DBE. The industry has adopted 50% elongation at break (EAB) relative to the un-aged cable condition as the acceptability standard. All tests are benchmarked against the cable EAB test. EAB, however, is a destructive test so the test programs must apply an array of other nondestructive examination (NDE) tests to assure or infer the overall set of cable’s system integrity. Assessment of cable integrity is further complicated in many cases by vendor’s use of dissimilar material for jacket and insulation. Frequently the jacket will degrade more rapidly than the underlying insulation. Although this can serve as an early alert to cable damage, direct test of the cable insulation without violating the protective jacket becomes problematic. This report addresses the range of bulk electrical NDE cable tests that are or could be practically implemented in a field-test situation with a particular focus on frequency domain reflectometry (FDR). The FDR test method offers numerous advantages over many other bulk electrical tests. Two commercial FDR systems plus a laboratory vector network analyzer are used to test an array of aged and un-aged cables under identical conditions. Several conclusions are set forth, and a number of knowledge gaps are identified.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

A Prospective Analysis of the Costs, Benefits, and Impacts of U.S. Renewable Portfolio Standards

As states have gained experience with renewable portfolio standards (RPS) policies, many have made significant revisions to existing programs. In 2015 and 2016, seven states raised and extended their final RPS targets, while another state enacted a new RPS policy (Barbose 2016b). Interest in expanding and strengthening state RPS programs may continue, while efforts like recent proposals in many states to repeal or freeze existing RPS policies may also persist. In either context, questions about the potential costs, benefits, and other impacts of RPS programs are usually central to the decision-making process. This report follows on previous analyses that have focused on the historical costs, benefits, and other impacts of existing state RPS programs (Heeter et al. 2014; Wiser et al. 2016a). This report examines RPS outcomes prospectively, considering both current RPS policies as well as a potential expansion of those policies. The goal of this work is to provide a consistent and independent analytical methodology for that examination. This analysis relies on National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s (NREL’s) Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model to estimate changes to the U.S. electric power sector across a number of scenarios and sensitivity cases, focusing on the 2015–2050 timeframe. Based on those modeled results, we evaluate the costs, benefits, and other impacts of renewable energy contributing to RPS compliance using the suite of methods employed in a number of recent studies sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE): a report examining retrospective benefits and impacts of RPS programs (Wiser et al. 2016a), the Wind Vision report (DOE 2015), the On the Path to SunShot report focusing on environmental benefits (Wiser et al. 2016b), and the Hydropower Vision report (DOE 2016).

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Focusing the Sun: State Considerations for Designing Community Solar Policy

This report summarizes outcomes from the National Community Solar Partnership State Best Practices working group by identifying key differences in state policies that enable community solar and illustrating how various policy design approaches may impact the market. For the latter question, it is too early to quantify a relationship between policy design and market impacts, because most state programs have not been fully implemented. So, the authors conducted interviews with 19 subject matter experts, including project developers, regulators, and utilities to better understand how various policy design approaches may impact community solar markets. These perspectives, along with those gleaned from the working group and relevant literature were synthesized to identify key considerations for policymakers designing community solar programs. Though state community solar policies vary in numerous ways, the report focuses on the following critical elements: program cap, project size cap, subscriber location requirements, subscriber eligibility requirements, low- and moderate-income stipulations, and subscriber compensation.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Business Models for Scaling Demand Flexibility Volume IV – Program life cycle challenges and lessons learned from U.S. programs

Load growth at the grid edge is driving increased attention to the distribution system and its ability to enable customer technology adoption in an affordable and timely manner. Key industry stakeholders, including electric utilities and regulators, can benefit from strategies to manage and balance customer needs with infrastructure investments, such as demand flexibility. This report focuses on demand flexibility—the ability to reduce, shift, shed, generate, or modulate loads in response to building and grid needs—to reduce the need for costly grid upgrades by deferring investment needs and increase system reliability by shifting electricity usage during periods of high risk. Specifically, we focus on the emerging characteristics of business models for demand flexibility as a framework to understand how demand flexibility programs generate value. In this report, we focus on the life cycle of demand flexibility programs, which provides information on value creation and describes the various deployment phases program implementers navigate from initial program conceptualization through to program expansion and replication to new customer segments and regions. This report characterizes the key phases of the demand flexibility program life cycle, identifies existing challenges across the program deployment phases, and describes lessons learned. This report is part of a series that includes reports on customer relationship management strategies, stakeholder ecosystem management, and program life cycle.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Long-Term Fish Monitoring in Large Rivers: Utility of “Benchmarking” across Basins

Abstract In business, benchmarking is a widely used practice of comparing your own business processes to those of other comparable companies and incorporating identified best practices to improve performance. Biologists and resource managers designing and conducting monitoring programs for fish in large river systems tend to focus on single river basins or segments of large rivers, missing opportunities to learn from those conducting fish monitoring in other rivers. We briefly examine five long-term fish monitoring programs in large rivers in the United States (Colorado, Columbia, Mississippi, Illinois, and Tallapoosa rivers) and identify opportunities for learning across programs by detailing best monitoring practices and why these practices were chosen. Although monitoring objectives, methods, and program maturity differ between each river system, examples from these five case studies illustrate the important role that long-term monitoring programs play in interpreting temporal and spatial shifts in fish populations for both established objectives and newly emerging questions. We suggest that deliberate efforts to develop a broader collaborative network through benchmarking will facilitate sharing of ideas and development of more effective monitoring programs.

Ward, David L.↗

Temporal ensemble learning of univariate methods for short term load forecasting

Short term load forecasting (STLF) is a fundamental component of demand response programs in smart grids. Recent literature has focused on complex neural networks and deep learning models for solving STLF. While these models work well for load forecasting with complex non-linear relationships, they have been shown to be less effective than simpler univariate models for STLF problems with under a 6 hours horizon. Given the lack of multivariate data (such as temperature) in many practical datasets, we need better univariate prediction models for STLF. By partitioning the dataset by temporal features, we develop a novel ensemble learning method that exploits daily seasonality in electricity consumption data to improve accuracy of popular univariate models. We train an ensemble of models from the dataset partitions. We develop a variety of methods, including Ridge Regression, to increase the robustness of the ensemble prediction. To show the effectiveness of our approach, we perform detailed evaluation using an aggregated user electricity consumption dataset collected by the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power (LADWP). We select four popular prediction algorithms in literature for our experiments, including Kernel Regression (KR), Support Vector Regression (SVR) and neural network approaches. We compare the performance of these algorithms applying our ensemble approach to training only one single model. Our approach leads to an 11.2% decrease in mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and 21.3% decrease in root mean squared error (RMSE) over the single model approach for KR, and a 30% and 32.4% decrease in MAPE and RMSE respectively for SVR. These ensemble models also outperform the neural network approaches.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Hawthorne Nevada Deep Direct-Use Feasibility Study - 3D Seismic

The objective of this project is to use a multi-disciplinary, three-tiered approach to assess the geothermal resource and determine the feasibility of implementing a large-scale, direct-use facility for the Hawthorne Army Depot (HAD) and the various town and county facilities in Hawthorne, Nevada. This assessment directly targets a geothermal resource recently characterized by the Navy Geothermal Program Office (GPO) as part of a focused exploration and development campaign. This data includes but is not limited to: OD Data, Map of Hawthorne Area 3D Seismic Survey, HAW 3D Seismic interpretation report, Zip folder containing DBF files pertaining to the Spring Well Seismic Survey Zone, Zip file containing one shapefile of 3D seismic data.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Hawthorne Nevada Deep Direct-Use Feasibility Study - References, Reports, Literature

The objective of this project is to use a multi-disciplinary, three-tiered approach to assess the geothermal resource and determine the feasibility of implementing a large-scale, direct-use facility for the Hawthorne Army Depot (HAD) and the various town and county facilities in Hawthorne, Nevada. This assessment directly targets a geothermal resource recently characterized by the Navy Geothermal Program Office (GPO) as part of a focused exploration and development campaign. Data includes: Zip folder containing information from Bjornstad. Includes isotope, temperature, water, well, and reports from 2002; Zip folder contains PDF and power point files of references for the Hawthorne Geothermal project; Zip folder containing PDF files of the literature cited in the proposal.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗