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Reactive nitrogen, ozone, and nitrate aerosols observed in the Arctic stratosphere in January 1990

Ozone mixing ratios in the vicinity of the 525-K potential temperature surface in January and early February of 1990 were observed to decrease sharply across the edge of the vortex boundary, where the vortex position was estimated from Ertel's potential vorticity. The changes in NO(y) mixing ratio with respect to altitude measured on January 18 and 31 were quite well correlated with those of ozone between 15 and 24 km, indicating that NO(y) also had a large gradient across the edge of the vortex. This is interpreted as being mainly due to the significant denitrification that occurred inside the vortex. The total amount of gas and particulate phase HNO3 was close to the NO(y) amount at the altitude of the 22- to 23-km region, suggesting that the conversion of non-HNO3 reactive nitrogen to HNO3 had occurred with a PSC.

Kondo, Y.↗

H II regions and the abundance properties of spiral galaxies

We investigate the relationships between the characteristic oxygen abundance, the radial abundance gradient, and the macroscopic properties of spiral galaxies by examining the properties of individual H II regions within those galaxies. Our observations of the line flux ratio (O II) lambda lambda 3726, 3729 + (O III) lambda lambda 4959, 5007)/H beta for 159 H II regions in 14 spiral galaxies are combined with published data to provide a sample of 39 disk galaxies for which (O II) + (O III)/H beta has been measured for at least five H II regions. We find that the characteristic gas-phase abundances and luminosities of spiral galaxies are strongly correlated. This relationship maps almost directly onto the luminosity-metallicity relationship of irregular galaxies and is also quite similar to that found for elliptical and dwarf spheroidal galaxies. Within our sample of spirals, a strong correlation between characteristic abundance and Hubble type also exists. The correlation between luminosity and Hubble type complicates the issue, but we discuss several interpretations of the correlations. The relationship between circular velocity and characteristic abundance is also discussed. We find that the slopes of the radial abundance gradients, when expressed in units of dex/isophotal radius, do not significantly correlate with either luminosity or Hubble type. However, the hypothesis that both early and very late type spirals have shallower gradients than intermediate spirals is consistent with the data. We find suggestive evidence that the presence of a bar induces a flatter gradient and also briefly discuss whether abundance gradients are exponential, as is usually assumed. We investigate the properties of individual H II regions in a subset of 42 regions for which we have spectra that cover almost the entire spectral range from 3500 to 9800 A. We use those data to estimate the densitites and ionizing spectra within the H II regions. We confirm that the ionizing spectrum hardens with increasing radius and decreasing abundance. We find no correlation between the ionization parameter and either radius or abundance, but this may be due to significant scatter introduced by the simple conversion of line ratios to ionization parameter.

Zaritsky, Dennis↗

A Composite View of Ozone Evolution in the 1995-1996 Northern Winter Polar Vortex Developed from Airborne Lidar and Satellite Observations

The processes which contribute to the ozone evolution in the high latitude northern lower stratosphere are evaluated using a three dimensional model simulation and ozone observations. The model uses winds and temperatures from the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System. The simulation results are compared with ozone observations from three platforms: the differential absorption lidar (DIAL) which was flown on the NASA DC-8 as part of the Vortex Ozone Transport Experiment; the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS); the Polar Ozone and Aerosol Measurement (POAM II) solar occultation instrument. Time series for the different data sets are consistent with each other, and diverge from model time series during December and January. The model ozone in December and January is shown to be much less sensitive to the model photochemistry than to the model vertical transport, which depends on the model vertical motion as well as the model vertical gradient. We evaluate the dependence of model ozone evolution on the model ozone gradient by comparing simulations with different initial conditions for ozone. The modeled ozone throughout December and January most closely resembles observed ozone when the vertical profiles between 12 and 20 km within the polar vortex closely match December DIAL observations. We make a quantitative estimate of the uncertainty in the vertical advection using diabatic trajectory calculations. The net transport uncertainty is significant, and should be accounted for when comparing observations with model ozone. The observed and modeled ozone time series during December and January are consistent when these transport uncertainties are taken into account.

Douglass, A. R.↗

Improved Rainfall Estimates and Predictions for 21st Century Drought Early Warning

As temperatures increase, the onset and severity of droughts is likely to become more intense. Improved tools for understanding, monitoring and predicting droughts will be a key component of 21st century climate adaption. The best drought monitoring systems will bring together accurate precipitation estimates with skillful climate and weather forecasts. Such systems combine the predictive power inherent in the current land surface state with the predictive power inherent in low frequency ocean-atmosphere dynamics. To this end, researchers at the Climate Hazards Group (CHG), in collaboration with partners at the USGS and NASA, have developed i) a long (1981-present) quasi-global (50degS-50degN, 180degW-180degE) high resolution (0.05deg) homogenous precipitation data set designed specifically for drought monitoring, ii) tools for understanding and predicting East African boreal spring droughts, and iii) an integrated land surface modeling (LSM) system that combines rainfall observations and predictions to provide effective drought early warning. This talk briefly describes these three components. Component 1: CHIRPS The Climate Hazards group InfraRed Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS), blends station data with geostationary satellite observations to provide global near real time daily, pentadal and monthly precipitation estimates. We describe the CHIRPS algorithm and compare CHIRPS and other estimates to validation data. The CHIRPS is shown to have high correlation, low systematic errors (bias) and low mean absolute errors. Component 2: Hybrid statistical-dynamic forecast strategies East African droughts have increased in frequency, but become more predictable as Indo- Pacific SST gradients and Walker circulation disruptions intensify. We describe hybrid statistical-dynamic forecast strategies that are far superior to the raw output of coupled forecast models. These forecasts can be translated into probabilities that can be used to generate bootstrapped ensembles describing future climate conditions. Component 3: Assimilation using LSMs CHIRPS rainfall observations (component 1) and bootstrapped forecast ensembles (component 2) can be combined using LSMs to predict soil moisture deficits. We evaluate the skill such a system in East Africa, and demonstrate results for 2013.

Funk, Chris↗

Improved Rainfall Estimates and Predictions for 21st Century Drought Early Warning

As temperatures increase, the onset and severity of droughts is likely to become more intense. Improved tools for understanding, monitoring and predicting droughts will be a key component of 21st century climate adaption. The best drought monitoring systems will bring together accurate precipitation estimates with skillful climate and weather forecasts. Such systems combine the predictive power inherent in the current land surface state with the predictive power inherent in low frequency ocean-atmosphere dynamics. To this end, researchers at the Climate Hazards Group (CHG), in collaboration with partners at the USGS and NASA, have developed i) a long (1981-present) quasi-global (50degS-50degN, 180degW-180degE) high resolution (0.05deg) homogenous precipitation data set designed specifically for drought monitoring, ii) tools for understanding and predicting East African boreal spring droughts, and iii) an integrated land surface modeling (LSM) system that combines rainfall observations and predictions to provide effective drought early warning. This talk briefly describes these three components. Component 1: CHIRPS The Climate Hazards group InfraRed Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS), blends station data with geostationary satellite observations to provide global near real time daily, pentadal and monthly precipitation estimates. We describe the CHIRPS algorithm and compare CHIRPS and other estimates to validation data. The CHIRPS is shown to have high correlation, low systematic errors (bias) and low mean absolute errors. Component 2: Hybrid statistical-dynamic forecast strategies East African droughts have increased in frequency, but become more predictable as Indo- Pacific SST gradients and Walker circulation disruptions intensify. We describe hybrid statistical-dynamic forecast strategies that are far superior to the raw output of coupled forecast models. These forecasts can be translated into probabilities that can be used to generate bootstrapped ensembles describing future climate conditions. Component 3: Assimilation using LSMs CHIRPS rainfall observations (component 1) and bootstrapped forecast ensembles (component 2) can be combined using LSMs to predict soil moisture deficits. We evaluate the skill such a system in East Africa, and demonstrate results for 2013.

Funk, Chris↗

Thermodynamic and Diffusion Model Estimates on Metamorphic Temperatures and Timescales for Basaltic Eucrite GRA 98098

Introduction: HED meteorites are thought to rep-resent igneous rocks from Vesta’s basaltic crust and preserve evidence of early crustal metamorphism. Determining the temperatures and timescales of thermal metamorphism is important for reconstructing crustal evolution in the early solar system. Here, we study basaltic eucrite Graves Nunataks (GRA) 98098, which has been identified as a highly metamorphosed eucrite [1]. We present new estimates on metamorphic temperatures determined via thermodynamic modeling as well as the initial results from diffusion models constraining timescales of thermal metamorphism. Sample Description: GRA 98098 is an unbrecciated eucrite with a granoblastic plagioclase and pyroxene mineralogy. Millimeter to cm-long lathes of tridymite cross-cut and poikilitically enclose plagioclase and pyroxene [1,this work]. Pyroxene grains have exsolved into Ca-rich (~Wo38En29Fs33) and Ca-poor (~Wo4.5En36Fs59.5) lamellae. Both unzoned and zoned plagioclase grains are observed. Unzoned plagioclase grains are found solely with tridymite laths. These grains have ~An92 compositions. The cores of the zoned plagioclase grains have the same composition and thin, relatively sodic rims (~An67), (Fig. 1). The bulk sample is unusually enriched in highly in-compatible elements and has one of the most fractionated REE patterns reported [1]. Maximum metamorphic temperatures of 985±78°C have been estimated using two-pyroxene thermometry [2]. Methods: Thermodynamic modeling. Thermodynamic models were constructed using the software Perple_X, which employs a Gibbs free energy minimization in order to determine the most stable phase assemblage for a given bulk rock composition [3]. Bulk composition was calculated using mineral com-positions acquired via EMPA (this study) and the observed abundancies present in the thin section. Two bulk compositions were estimated; 1) includes all phases present in the thin section, (assumes that all phases are present during metamorphism), 2) excludes tridymite from the bulk calculation (assumes that tridymite was not present during metamorphism). In order to determine whether metamorphic equilibria was achieved and estimate temperatures of metamorphism, we compared measured pyroxene compositions with thermodynamically predicted compositions [4, Fig. 2]. Diffusion Modeling. Several time-temperature de-pendent diffusion profiles were calculated in order to determine the best match for XAn chemical profiles observed at the edges of the zoned plagioclase (Fig. 3). We assumed that the start condition was a stepwise gradient at the plagioclase/pyroxene interface. We also assumed an average diffusion coefficient (D) and a constant temperature using the equation in [5]. D was determined for two temperatures (T = 1060ºC; near eucrite solidus [6] and T = 985ºC; metamorphism reported in [4]) and then XAn was calculated as a function of distance from plagioclase core to rim using an error function solution to Fick’s second law. Results: Thermodynamic model results are summarized in Fig. 2. For a bulk composition that includes all phases in the thin section, pyroxene endmember compositions plot in the following temperature ranges: Fs ~660-860ºC, En~1000ºC & 1150ºC, and Wo~760-900ºC (Fig. 2a). For a bulk composition that excludes tridymite from the peak metamorphic assemblage (i.e., the bulk composition minus the contribution from tridymite), a temperature range could not be determined for the Fs component of pyroxene. For Wo, T~760-900ºC and En, T~1000ºC & 1150ºC (Fig. 2b). Fig. 3 summarizes the diffusion model results. For T = 1060°C & 985°C, the most appropriate time interval was estimated based on which diffusion curve most matched (solid lines, Fig. 3) the EMPA data. For T = 1060°C, the best looking match was t = 500 ka. For T = 985°C, the best match was t = 7 Ma. Discussion and future work: Temperature estimates from thermodynamic models are not conclusive because the temperature ranges determined for pyroxene endmember stability do not overlap (colored fields in Fig. 2), thus implying that there is disequilibrium between pyroxene crystals and the bulk composition considered [4]. Thus, additional exploration is needed to define a metamorphically equilibrated do-main that accurately records peak temperature. The utility of defining metamorphically equilibrated do-mains to improve the accuracy and level of detail elucidated regarding the petrogenetic history of metamorphose samples has been demonstrated previously [4,7]. We suggest that in the case of Fig. 2a, the thin section composition is not representative of the length scales over which metamorphic equilibrium was achieve and in the case of Fig. 2b, the assumption that tridymite was not present during metamorphism was incorrect. However, results from thermodynamic models can provide insight into the relative timing of mineral and compositional textures. For example from texture alone, it is unclear whether tridymite was igneous in origin and represents the last bits of melt in a crystallizing magma chamber, or if it formed during (and possibly initiated) open system thermal metamorphism. The latter could be consistent with a partial melt hypothesis [8,9] while the former implies that simple fractional crystallization can yield the textures present in GRA 98098. The lack of coincidence be-tween pyroxene endmember compositions in Fig. 2b suggest that the bulk composition minus tridymite was not the assemblage in equilibrium with the pyroxene, suggesting that tridymite was present during metamorphism and formed during igneous crystallization. We conclude that the development of the Na-rich plagioclase rims likely occurred during or immediately after peak thermal metamorphism, because eucrites of similar metamorphic grade and texture have unzoned plagioclase (~An92) [2,4,8], and Na zoning is only observed in the plagioclase not included in the tridymite. This suggests that the zoning formed after tridymite formation, and therefore after igneous crystallization. Thus, the timescales calculated via diffusion modeling possibly represent the time interval over which thermal metamorphism occurred. Cooling rates approximated for the Vestan crust predict that the crust cooled below 300°C around 35-40 Ma after formation[10]. This is consistent with our modeling results that predict formation of the Na rich plagioclase rims occurring at higher temperatures over a period of 0.5 to 7 Ma years. Future work. Additional thermodynamic modeling work will focus on selecting an equilibrated bulk rock domain in which to elucidate metamorphic conditions. Diffusion models currently provide a minimum time-scale, since diffusion slows down as the system cools. Future work with will focus on integrating cooling into the diffusion models and constraining the depth at which thermal metamorphism occurs because it could be used to determine whether the range of time-scales calculated for thermal metamorphism are consistent with the geologic environment.

J S Gorce↗

An experimental estimate of the O/+/-O resonant charge transfer cross section, collision frequency, and energy transfer rate

The resonant-charge-transfer cross section dominates the interaction between neutral and ionized atomic oxygen at temperatures greater than several hundred degrees Kelvin. This cross section is of direct importance to F-region studies of ion diffusion, ion thermal balance, and neutral atmospheric winds and pressure gradients, since it determines collision frequencies and energy and momentum transfer rates. However, the uncertainty in this cross section is roughly 25-40%. Incoherent-scatter measurements allow determination of the product of the atomic oxygen concentration multiplied by the cross section. If present-day atmospheric models are accepted as statistically representative of F-region atomic oxygen concentrations experimental (aeronomical) data presented indicate that the resonant-charge-transfer cross section is about 1.3 times greater than the value presently in general use, though in excellent agreement with the only other available (laboratory) experimental value. This revised cross section has obvious implications for thermospheric studies.

Carlson, H. C.↗

Data from: Understanding the biogeochemical and spatial drivers of methane and carbon dioxide fluxes in a large temperate reservoir

This dataset contains spatially resolved measurements of CO₂ and CH₄ fluxes and associated environmental variables collected across 200 sites in Douglas Reservoir (Tennessee, USA) between July 29-August 2, 2024. Measurements include diffusive fluxes of CO₂ and CH₄, CH₄ ebullition, and biogeochemical and spatial variables such as dissolved oxygen, temperature, conductivity, chlorophyll-a, pH, water depth, and distance from the dam. Sampling was conducted using a spatially balanced design to capture longitudinal and depth-related gradients throughout the reservoir. The dataset is structured to support analyses of spatial variability, flux pathway comparisons, and modeling approaches (e.g., spatial statistics and machine learning) aimed at understanding controls on reservoir CO₂ and CH₄ fluxes and improving upscaling to whole-reservoir and regional estimates.

Neeper, Jamie [ORNL] (ORCID:0009000842342101)↗

Overcoming Dynamic Disturbances in Imaging Systems

We develop and discuss a methodology with the potential to yield a significant reduction in complexity, cost, and risk of space-borne optical systems in the presence of dynamic disturbances. More robust systems almost certainly will be a result as well. Many future space-based and ground-based optical systems will employ optical control systems to enhance imaging performance. The goal of the optical control subsystem is to determine the wavefront aberrations and remove them. Ideally reducing an aberrated image of the object under investigation to a sufficiently clear (usually diffraction-limited) image. Control will likely be distributed over several elements. These elements may include telescope primary segments, telescope secondary, telescope tertiary, deformable mirror(s), fine steering mirror(s), etc. The last two elements, in particular, may have to provide dynamic control. These control subsystems may become elaborate indeed. But robust system performance will require evaluation of the image quality over a substantial range and in a dynamic environment. Candidate systems for improvement in the Earth Sciences Enterprise could include next generation Landsat systems or atmospheric sensors for dynamic imaging of individual, severe storms. The technology developed here could have a substantial impact on the development of new systems in the Space Science Enterprise; such as the Next Generation Space Telescope(NGST) and its follow-on the Next NGST. Large Interferometric Systems of non-zero field, such as Planet Finder and Submillimeter Probe of the Evolution of Cosmic Structure, could benefit. These systems most likely will contain large, flexible optomechanical structures subject to dynamic disturbance. Furthermore, large systems for high resolution imaging of planets or the sun from space may also benefit. Tactical and Strategic Defense systems will need to image very small targets as well and could benefit from the technology developed here. We discuss a novel speckle imaging technique with the potential to separate dynamic aberrations from static aberrations. Post-processing of a set of image data, using an algorithm based on this technique, should work for all but the lowest light levels and highest frequency dynamic environments. This technique may serve to reduce the complexity of the control system and provide for robust, fault-tolerant, reduced risk operation. For a given object, a short exposure image is "frozen" on the focal plane in the presence of the environmental disturbance (turbulence, jitter, etc.). A key factor is that this imaging data exhibits frame-to-frame linear shift invariance. Therefore, although the Point Spread Function is varying from frame to frame, the source is fixed; and each short exposure contains object spectrum data out to the diffraction limit of the imaging system. This novel speckle imaging technique uses the Knox-Thompson method. The magnitude of the complex object spectrum is straightforward to determine by well-established approaches. The phase of the complex object spectrum is decomposed into two parts. One is a single-valued function determined by the divergence of the optical phase gradient. The other is a multi-valued function determined by the circulation of the optical phase gradient-"hidden phase." Finite difference equations are developed for the phase. The novelty of this approach is captured in the inclusion of this "hidden phase." This technique allows the diffraction-limited reconstruction of the object from the ensemble of short exposure frames while simultaneously estimating the phase as a function of time from a set of exposures.

Young, Eric W.↗

Overcoming Dynamic Disturbances in Imaging Systems

We develop and discuss a methodology with the potential to yield a significant reduction in complexity, cost, and risk of space-borne optical systems in the presence of dynamic disturbances. More robust systems almost certainly will be a result as well. Many future space-based and ground-based optical systems will employ optical control systems to enhance imaging performance. The goal of the optical control subsystem is to determine the wavefront aberrations and remove them. Ideally reducing an aberrated image of the object under investigation to a sufficiently clear (usually diffraction-limited) image. Control will likely be distributed over several elements. These elements may include telescope primary segments, telescope secondary, telescope tertiary, deformable mirror(s), fine steering mirror(s), etc. The last two elements, in particular, may have to provide dynamic control. These control subsystems may become elaborate indeed. But robust system performance will require evaluation of the image quality over a substantial range and in a dynamic environment. Candidate systems for improvement in the Earth Sciences Enterprise could include next generation Landsat systems or atmospheric sensors for dynamic imaging of individual, severe storms. The technology developed here could have a substantial impact on the development of new systems in the Space Science Enterprise; such as the Next Generation Space Telescope(NGST) and its follow-on the Next NGST. Large Interferometric Systems of non-zero field, such as Planet Finder and Submillimeter Probe of the Evolution of Cosmic Structure, could benefit. These systems most likely will contain large, flexible optormechanical structures subject to dynamic disturbance. Furthermore, large systems for high resolution imaging of planets or the sun from space may also benefit. Tactical and Strategic Defense systems will need to image very small targets as well and could benefit from the technology developed here. We discuss a novel speckle imaging technique with the potential to separate dynamic aberrations from static aberrations. Post-processing of a set of image data, using an algorithm based on this technique, should work for all but the lowest light levels and highest frequency dynamic environments. This technique may serve to reduce the complexity of the control system and provide for robust, fault-tolerant, reduced risk operation. For a given object, a short exposure image is "frozen" on the focal plane in the presence of the environmental disturbance (turbulence, jitter, etc.). A key factor is that this imaging data exhibits frame-to-frame linear shift invariance. Therefore, although the Point Spread Function is varying from frame to frame, the source is fixed; and each short exposure contains object spectrum data out to the diffraction limit of the imaging system. This novel speckle imaging technique uses the Knox-Thompson method. The magnitude of the complex object spectrum is straightforward to determine by well-established approaches. The phase of the complex object spectrum is decomposed into two parts. One is a single-valued function determined by the divergence of the optical phase gradient. The other is a multi-valued function determined by, the circulation of the optical phase gradient-"hidden phase." Finite difference equations are developed for the phase. The novelty of this approach is captured in the inclusion of this "hidden phase." This technique allows the diffraction-limited reconstruction of the object from the ensemble of short exposure frames while simultaneously estimating the phase as a function of time from a set of exposures.

Young, Eric W.↗

Tectonic-Climate Interactions in Action Orogenic Belts: Quantification of Dynamic Topography with SRTM data

This project was undertaken to examine the approach to steady state in collisional mountain belts. Although the primary thrust of this grant was to look at larger collisional mountain belts, such as the Himalaya, the Tien Shan, and Southern Alps, we began by looking at smaller structures represented by growing and propagating folds. Like ranges that are evolving toward a topographic steady state, these folds undergo a series of morphologic changes as they are progressively uplifted and eroded. We wanted to document the nature of these changes and to try to discern some of the underlying controls on them. We initially focused on the Wheeler Ridge anticline in southern California. Subsequently, we progressed to looking at the topographic development and the effects of differential uplift and glaciation on the Kyrgyz Range in the northern Tien Shan. This range is unusual inasmuch as it is transformed along its length from a simple uplift with a largely preserved Mesozoic erosion surface arching across it to a highly dissected and heavily glaciated uplift in the region where uplift has been sustained at higher rates over longer intervals. In efforts to understand the distribution of erosion rates at 10(exp 3) - 10(exp 5) year time scales, cosmogenic radionuclide (CRN) concentrations have been gaining increasingly widespread usage (Brown et al., 1995; Riebe et al., 2004; Riebe et al., 2001; Vance et al., 2003). Most studies to date, however, have been conducted in slowly eroding ranges. In rapidly eroding mountains where landslides deliver most of the sediments to the rivers, we hypothesized that CRN concentrations could be highly perturbed by the stochastic processes of landsliding. Therefore, we undertook the development of a numerical model that simulated the effects of both landsliding and grain-by-grain attrition within fluvial catchments. This modeling effort has shown the effects of catchment size and erosion rate on CRN concentrations and allows a prediction of where to sample to obtain the optimal erosion rate estimates using CRN techniques. Finally, we developed computational techniques to operate on DEMs to extract useful information that would enable quantification of climate-erosion interactions. In particular, we worked on rapid techniques to define catchments of any given range of sizes, to extract channel gradients, to combine precipitation information to calculate discharge, and to utilize various stream-power models to determine the erosional energy within any given catchment within a transect. We briefly describe results from Wheeler Ridge, the Kyrgyz Range, the Nepal Himalaya, and our numerical modeling.

Burbank, Douglas W.↗

Ammonia and Methane Dairy Emission Plumes in the San Joaquin Valley of California from Individual Feedlot to Regional Scales

Agricultural ammonia (NH3) emissions are highly uncertain, with high spatiotemporal variability and a lack of widespread in situ measurements. Regional NH3 emission estimates using mass balance or emission ratio approaches are uncertain due to variable NH3 sources and sinks as well as unknown plume correlations with other dairy source tracers. We characterize the spatial distributions of NH3 and methane (CH4) dairy plumes using in situ surface and airborne measurements in the Tulare dairy feedlot region of the San Joaquin Valley, California, during the NASA Deriving Information on Surface conditions from Column and Vertically Resolved Observations Relevant to Air Quality 2013 field campaign. Surface NH3 and CH4 mixing ratios exhibit large variability with maxima localized downwind of individual dairy feedlots. The geometric mean NH3:CH4 enhancement ratio derived from surface measurements is 0.15 +/- 0.03 ppmv ppmv−1. Individual dairy feedlots with spatially distinct NH3 and CH4 source pathways led to statistically significant correlations between NH3 and CH4 in 68% of the 69 downwind plumes sampled. At longer sampling distances, the NH3:CH4 enhancement ratio decreases 20-30%, suggesting the potential for NH3 deposition as a loss term for plumes within a few kilometers downwind of feedlots. Aircraft boundary layer transect measurements directly above surface mobile measurements in the dairy region show comparable gradients and geometric mean enhancement ratios within measurement uncertainties, even when including NH3 partitioning to submicron particles. Individual NH3 and CH4 plumes sampled at close proximity where losses are minimal are not necessarily correlated due to lack of mixing and distinct source pathways. Our analyses have important implications for constraining NH3 sink and plume variability influences on regional NH3 emission estimates and for improving NH3 emission inventory spatial allocations.

Miller, David J.↗

CFD modeling of natural circulation in LiCl-KCl molten salt closed loop

Characterizing flow within a molten salt closed-loop system is crucial for assessing system requirements, evaluating performance, and identifying potential flaws. Direct flow measurement using instrumentation is challenging due to extreme environmental conditions and the limitations associated with measuring molten salt flow under natural convection. Here, this study aims to provide comprehensive insights into the thermal-hydraulic behavior of a closed loop, with a particular focus on temperature distribution and velocity prediction. The Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) model demonstrated the capability to effectively simulate and predict both temperature distributions and flow velocities within the molten salt loop. The CFD model's predictive capability was validated by its ability to replicate temperature measurements under varying boundary conditions. The analysis revealed that the CFD model tends to underpredict temperatures in the cold leg and overpredict them in the hot leg, highlighting the need for continuous model refinement and acknowledging the limitations of using a steady-state approach. Furthermore, the potential of using external temperature measurements to estimate internal molten salt temperatures and predict flow velocity was explored, revealing that this approach could introduce up to a 5.5% error in flow velocity calculations. Line probes mapping temperature distributions across the tube's cross-section and molten salt provided valuable insights into temperature gradients, emphasizing the need for a thermal conductivity equation for molten salt with lower uncertainty to achieve more accurate temperature predictions of the system.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Bayesian Exploration and Surrogate Emulation of Nonlinear Beam-Response Geometry in the LBNF Beamline

Next-generation long-baseline neutrino experiments aim to achieve multi-MW proton beam power while reducing accelerator-induced systematic uncertainties. At Fermilab, the LBNF beamline is designed for 1.2 MW operation with PIP-II and is upgradeable to 2.4 MW. DUNE will probe the three-flavor neutrino paradigm and search for CP violation, requiring precise neutrino-flux normalization and improved control of accelerator-related uncertainties. Within the LBNF beamline, the System for On-Axis Neutrino Detection (SAND) will constrain flux uncertainties using precision near-detector measurements, while the Muon Monitor System (MuMS) will provide beamline diagnostics sensitive to the proton beam, target, and horn configuration. However, the pion phase space relevant for DUNE depends simultaneously on many correlated parameters, including beam centroid, beam width, horn current and alignment, target position, optics shifts, and radiation-induced changes. Consequently, MuMS observables exhibit nonlinear and coupled responses that are difficult to characterize using traditional one-parameter scans. To address this challenge, we are developing a Bayesian Exploration framework coupled to physics-informed surrogate emulators trained on Geant4 beamline simulations. Gaussian-process emulators provide both fast predictions and uncertainty estimates, enabling adaptive selection of new simulation points in beam-parameter space. As an initial demonstration, we construct surrogate emulators for MuMS response observables using a verified simulation campaign spanning proton-beam steering conditions. The emulators reproduce the simulated dependence of MuMS centroid and gradient observables while providing predictive uncertainties, and serve as the foundation for future multidimensional exploration including beam width, horn current, and additional beamline parameters. This work establishes a framework for uncertainty-aware beam monitoring, adaptive simulation campaigns, and rapid beam-response inference for future DUNE operations.

Ganguly, Sudeshna [Fermilab] (ORCID:00000003163482↗

Heat-Transfer Characteristics of Partially Film Cooled Plug Nozzle on a J-85 Afterburning Turbojet Engine

Plug nozzle film cooling data were obtained downstream of a slot located at 42 percent of the total plug length on a J-85 engine. Film cooling reduced the aft end wall temperature as much as 150 K, reduced total pressure loss in the upstream convection cooling passages by 50 percent, and reduced estimated compressor bleed flow requirement by 14 percent compared to an all convectively cooled nozzle. Shock waves along the plug surface strongly influenced temperature distributions on both convection and film cooled portions. The effect was most severe at nozzle pressure ratios below 10 where adverse pressure gradients were most severe.

Nosek, S. M.↗

Numerical prediction of transition of the F-16 wing at supersonic speeds

This work is part of the high speed research program currently underway at NASA. This project has the goal of gaining understanding of the technical requirements for supersonic-hypersonic flight. Specifically, this research is part of a continuing project to study the laminar flow over swept wings at high speeds and involves the numerical prediction of the flow about the F-16XL wing. The research uses the CNS/ARC3D codes and the resulting crossflow velocity components in order to estimate transition locations on the wing. Effects of angle of attack on the extent of laminar flows was found to be minimal. This result can be attributed to the fact that a laminar flow airfoil was used in this study, which has a continuous favorable pressure gradient over approximately the first 20 percent of the chord for angles of attacks up to 10 degrees. It should also be noted that even after 20 percent chord the pressure gradient either slowly continued to increase, but never decreased before 90 percent chord, except for the higher swept cases when separation occurs. Angles of attack greater than 10 degrees were not considered since this study assumes natural laminar flow for normal supersonic cruise flight conditions.

Cummings, Russell M.↗

3-D Modeling of Double-Diffusive Convection During Directional Solidification of a Non-Dilute Alloy with Application to the HgCdTe Growth Under Microgravity Conditions

A numerical calculation for a non-dilute alloy solidification was performed using the FIDAP finite element code. For low growth velocities plane front solidification occurs. The location and the shape of the interface was determined using melting temperatures from the HgCdTe liquidus curve. The low thermal conductivity of the solid HgCdTe causes thermal short circuit through the ampoule walls, resulting in curved isotherms in the vicinity of the interface. Double-diffusive convection in the melt is caused by radial temperature gradients and by material density inversion with temperature. Cooling from below and the rejection at the solid-melt interface of the heavier HgTe-rich solute each tend to reduce convection. Because of these complicating factors dimensional rather then non-dimensional modeling was performed. Estimates of convection contributions for various gravity conditions was performed parametrically. For gravity levels higher then 1 0 -7 of earth's gravity it was found that the maximum convection velocity is extremely sensitive to gravity vector orientation and can be reduced at least by factor of 50% for precise orientation of the ampoule in the microgravity environment. The predicted interface shape is in agreement with one obtained experimentally by quenching. The results of 3-D modeling are compared with previous 2-D finding. A video film featuring melt convection will be presented.

Bune, Andris V.↗

An Overview of Atmospheric Features Over the Western North Atlantic Ocean and North American East Coast – Part 2: Circulation, Boundary Layer, and Clouds

The Western North Atlantic Ocean (WNAO) is a complex land-ocean-atmosphere system that experiences a broad range of atmospheric phenomena, which in turn drive unique aerosol transport pathways, cloud morphologies, and boundary layer variability. This work, Part 2 of a 2-part paper series, provides an overview of the atmospheric circulation, boundary layer variability, three-dimensional cloud structure, and precipitation over the WNAO; the companion paper (Part 1) focused on chemical characterization of aerosols, gases, and wet deposition.Seasonal changes in atmospheric circulation and sea surface temperature explain a clear transition in cloud morphologies from small shallow cumulus clouds, convective clouds, and tropical storms in summer, to stratus/stratocumulus and multi-layer cloud systems associated with winter storms. Synoptic variability in cloud fields is estimated using satellite-based weather states, and the role of postfrontal conditions (cold-air outbreaks) in the development of stratiform clouds is further analyzed. Precipitation is persistent over the ocean, with a regional peak over the Gulf Stream path, where offshore sea surface temperature gradients are large and surface fluxes reach a regional peak. Satellite data show a clear annual cycle in cloud droplet number concentration with maxima (minima) along the coast in winter (summer), suggesting a marked annual cycle in aerosol-cloud interactions. Compared with satellite cloud retrievals, four climate models qualitatively reproduce the annual cycle in cloud cover and liquid water path, but with large discrepancies across models, especially in the extra-tropics. The paper concludes with a summary of outstanding issues and recommendations for future work.

David Painemal↗