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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 649 records · Page 36
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2007

POST2 End-To-End Descent and Landing Simulation for the Autonomous Landing and Hazard Avoidance Technology Project

The Program to Optimize Simulated Trajectories II (POST2) is used as a basis for an end-to-end descent and landing trajectory simulation that is essential in determining the design and performance capability of lunar descent and landing system models and lunar environment models for the Autonomous Landing and Hazard Avoidance Technology (ALHAT) project. This POST2-based ALHAT simulation provides descent and landing simulation capability by integrating lunar environment and lander system models (including terrain, sensor, guidance, navigation, and control models), along with the data necessary to design and operate a landing system for robotic, human, and cargo lunar-landing success. This paper presents the current and planned development and model validation of the POST2-based end-to-end trajectory simulation used for the testing, performance and evaluation of ALHAT project system and models.

Fisher, Jody l.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Analysis of the Variable Pressure Growth Chamber using the CASE/A simulation package

A computer simulation of the Variable Pressure Growth Chamber (VPGC), located at the NASA Johnson Space Center, has been developed using the Computer Aided Systems Engineering and Analysis (CASE/A) package. The model has been used to perform several analyses of the VPGC. The analyses consisted of a study of the effects of a human metabolic load on the VPGC and a study of two new configurations for the temperature and humidity control (THC) subsystem in the VPGC. The objective of the human load analysis was to study the effects of a human metabolic load on the air revitalization and THC subsystems. This included the effects on the quantity of carbon dioxide injected and oxygen removed from the chamber and the effects of the additional sensible and latent heat loads. The objective of the configuration analysis was to compare the two new THC configurations against the current THC configuration to determine which had the best performance.

Mcfadden, Carl D.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Capturing Safety Requirements to Enable Effective Task Allocation Between Humans and Automaton in Increasingly Autonomous Systems

There is a current drive towards enabling the deployment of increasingly autonomous systems in the National Airspace System (NAS). However, shifting the traditional roles and responsibilities between humans and automation for safety critical tasks must be managed carefully, otherwise the current emergent safety properties of the NAS may be disrupted. In this paper, a verification activity to assess the emergent safety properties of a clearly defined, safety critical, operational scenario that possesses tasks that can be fluidly allocated between human and automated agents is conducted. Task allocation role sets were proposed for a human-automation team performing a contingency maneuver in a reduced crew context. A safety critical contingency procedure (engine out on takeoff) was modeled in the Soar cognitive architecture, then translated into the Hybrid Input Output formalism. Verification activities were then performed to determine whether or not the safety properties held over the increasingly autonomous system. The verification activities lead to the development of several key insights regarding the implicit assumptions on agent capability. It subsequently illustrated the usefulness of task annotations associated with specialized requirements (e.g., communication, timing etc.), and demonstrated the feasibility of this approach.

Neogi, Natasha A.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Earth-Based Analogs & Modeling for Exercise Biomechanics in Space

The biomechanics of exercise in space is difficult to study and there are unknowns surrounding exercise performance on future space exploration countermeasures systems. These issues are beginning to be addressed through enhanced modeling techniques fueled initially by human-in-the-loop data collections in ground-based environments. The presentation will focus on an effort completed at the University of South Florida to apply the Computer Assisted Rehabilitation Environment (CAREN) system to address a human spaceflight need. The research explored the interaction between a human and a moving platform while exercise was completed.

Kaitlin Lostroscio↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Analytical Study of a Cryogenic Thermal Control Coating

This study focuses on the analysis of a cryogenic thermal control coating designed to reflect most of the Sun’s irradiance while emitting long wavelength radiation, thus enabling propulsion systems to maintain cryogenic temperatures while in deep space. This “solar white” coating is composed of yttrium oxide (Y2O3) which has properties that are well-suited for cryogenic propellant storage applications. To conduct proof of concept and material development, many tests have been run at both NASA Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Glenn Research Center (GRC) to demonstrate the performance of the coating in the cryogenic regime in both powder and ceramic forms. At GRC, the Deep Space Solar Simulator (DS3) was used to run thermal vacuum tests where the coating was exposed to a deep space environment (~10 K) with some tests conducted under the illumination of a solar lamp. Using the test data, a thermal model of the DS3 test setup was developed to correlate the test results to predict the optical properties of the coating. Once the optical properties were determined, an additional thermal model, based on previous work by R.C. Young quist et al., was developed to verify the performance of a theoretical lunar, cryogenic propellant depot. The latter thermal model also demonstrates the usage of the HLS-UG-001 Human Landing System Lunar Thermal Analysis Guidebook published to baseline Artemis-related lunar studies.

Cryogenic↗
DOE OSTI2019

Exploring Energy-Efficient and Sustainable Urban Mobility Strategies: An Initial Framework to Curate Data/Models, Measure Performance, and Diffuse Innovation: Preprint

Many cities across the United States seek to understand the maturity of data and models that are available to help manage challenges, opportunities, and uncertainties associated with the shifts in technologies, human behaviors and sustainable urban mobility strategies. One key question identified for smart city action planning includes how to best shape continuous improvements for urban populations at the intersection of mobility, energy, and quality of life? With the emerging megatrends of urbanization (more than 70% of world population in cities by 2050), on-demand shared mobility, vehicle electrification, and automated vehicles, initial 'urban science' studies to date have demonstrated the potential and need for maturing the related data and model ecosystems and on-going performance measurement across multiple urban system goals: e.g., from more mobility, clean and efficient energy use, accessibility and safety to less air pollution, traffic, and resource-intensive urban sprawl. To build on emerging literature and understand city responses to disruptive change, this initial study engages researchers and practitioners across four smart city finalists (Columbus, Denver, Austin and Portland) that competed in the U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) Smart City Challenge. The initial results emphasize the need for a suite of datasets and diverse analytical approaches that support U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) relevant research with cities. Considering desirable energy and mobility outcomes as a first step to advancing smart city solutions strategies, we systematically review approaches of and shortcomings in four U.S. cities, and suggest improvements in three areas: measurement, modeling effectiveness of new mobility technologies, and data-driven governance.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

TPSAS-NF1676L-35370-DND

The above anvil cirrus plume (AACP) is a weather phenomenon that signifies an intense tropopause penetrating updraft which can inject cirrus clouds several kilometers into the stratosphere. Storms that have such intense updrafts are often supercells which generate severe weather such as tornadoes, high winds, and hail. In addition, AACPs moisten the stratosphere and influence the Earth's radiative balance. Though an AACP can be identified by the human eye, no automated AACP detection methods currently exist. Lack of detection inhibits understanding of where and how often AACPs occur, and how these storms influence stratospheric air composition. Previous work involved synthesis of multiple remote sensing and severe weather report/warning data sources to identify AACPs in Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite system (GOES) satellite imagery and better understand their weather impacts (Bedka et al. (Wea. Forecasting, 2018)). This current study demonstrates an automated AACP identification method based on the application of a deep learning segmentation model known as a U-net. This study documents the development of a U-net model capable of identifying emergent AACPs using only satellite infrared (IR) and visible reflected sunlight imagery. The performance of a U-net is quantitatively benchmarked with human AACP identifications and qualitatively assessed through animations of detections generated from GOES-16 1-minute temporal resolution imagery.

Charles Liles↗
NASA NTRS2017

An Unobtrusive System to Measure, Assess, and Predict Cognitive Workload in Real-World Environments

Across many careers, individuals face alternating periods of high and low attention and cognitive workload, which can result in impaired cognitive functioning and can be detrimental to job performance. For example, some professions (e.g., fire fighters, emergency medical personnel, doctors and nurses working in an emergency room, pilots) require long periods of low workload (boredom), followed by sudden, high-tempo operations during which they may be required to respond to an emergency and perform at peak cognitive levels. Conversely, other professions (e.g., air traffic controllers, market investors in financial industries, analysts) require long periods of high workload and multitasking during which the addition of just one more task results in cognitive overload resulting in mistakes. An unobtrusive system to measure, assess, and predict cognitive workload could warn individuals, their teammates, or their supervisors when steps should be taken to augment cognitive readiness. In this talk I will describe an approach to this problem that we have found to be successful across work domains including: (1) a suite of unobtrusive, field-ready neurophysiological, physiological, and behavioral sensors that are chosen to best suit the target environment; (2) custom algorithms and statistical techniques to process and time-align raw data originating from the sensor suite; (3) probabilistic and statistical models designed to interpret the data into the human state of interest (e.g., cognitive workload, attention, fatigue); (4) and machine-learning techniques to predict upcoming performance based on the current pattern of events, and (5) display of each piece of information depending on the needs of the target user who may or may not want to drill down into the functioning of the system to determine how conclusions about human state and performance are determined. I will then focus in on our experimental results from our custom functional near-infrared spectroscopy sensor, designed to operate in real-world environments to be worn comfortably (e.g., positioned into a baseball cap or a surgeons cap) to measure changes in brain blood oxygenation without adding burden to the individual being assessed.

workload collection↗
NASA NTRS2022

Directed Acyclic Graphs: A Tool for Understanding the NASA Human Spaceflight System Risks - Human System Risk Board

For over a decade, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has tracked and configuration-managed approximately 30 risks to astronaut health and performance that occur before, during and after spaceflight. The Human System Risk Board (HSRB), a Health and Medical Technical Authority (HMTA) Board at NASA Johnson Space Center, is the entity responsible for identifying, assessing, analyzing, and monitoring the official understanding of the risk or risk posture for each of the Human System Risks and determining – based on evaluation of the available evidence – when that risk posture changes. The ultimate purpose of tracking and researching these risks is to find ways to reduce the risk that astronaut crews face during spaceflight. Historically, research, development and operations relevant to one risk have been conducted in isolation from other risks; these individual risk ‘silos’ enabled initial characterization of each specific risk. In spaceflight however, the impact of exposure to risk for astronaut crews is cumulative, and not independent of exposures or other risks, as all the adverse effects of the spaceflight environment begin at launch, continue throughout the duration of the mission and in some cases across the lifetime of the crews. In January of 2020, the HSRB at NASA embarked on a pilot project designed to assess the potential value of causal diagramming as a tool to facilitate understanding of these cumulative and interdependent effects as applied within Human System Risk management. This process uses directed acyclic graphs as a means of formalizing a shared mental model of the causal flow of risk among Risk Board stakeholders. Initially this model was to improve communication among those stakeholders, but the potential value exceeds communication alone. The causal diagrams are formulated as directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) to function as a type of knowledge graph for reference for the board and its stakeholders. This document is a sister document to NASA/TM 20220006812 Directed Acyclic Graph Guidance Documentation (1). In that document, the basic guidance for creating and standardizing directed acyclic graphs as tools for cross-risk analysis is provided. This document contains the initial configuration managed DAGs that were created as a result of applying those principles. These initial versions were accepted by the HSRB in January of 2022. Each of the Human System Risks are represented by a DAG that has been reviewed by the larger Human Health and Performance community at NASA including life scientists, physical scientists, physicians, nurses, pharmacists, exercise specialists and more. These results show the starting point for Human System Risk DAGs as shared mental models and communication aids across the boundaries of the various expertise needed to understand and mitigate the human risks in spaceflight. Because they are a starting point, each of these DAGs can be expected to change over time as new or refined evidence becomes available. The process for updating these DAGs can be found in the JSC-66705 Human System Risk Management Plan (2) that is publicly available on the NASA Technical Reports Server.

Erik L. Antonsen↗
NASA NTRS1989

Connectionist model-based stereo vision for telerobotics

Autonomous stereo vision for range measurement could greatly enhance the performance of telerobotic systems. Stereo vision could be a key component for autonomous object recognition and localization, thus enabling the system to perform low-level tasks, and allowing a human operator to perform a supervisory role. The central difficulty in stereo vision is the ambiguity in matching corresponding points in the left and right images. However, if one has a priori knowledge of the characteristics of the objects in the scene, as is often the case in telerobotics, a model-based approach can be taken. Researchers describe how matching ambiguities can be resolved by ensuring that the resulting three-dimensional points are consistent with surface models of the expected objects. A four-layer neural network hierarchy is used in which surface models of increasing complexity are represented in successive layers. These models are represented using a connectionist scheme called parameter networks, in which a parametrized object (for example, a planar patch p=f(h,m sub x, m sub y) is represented by a collection of processing units, each of which corresponds to a distinct combination of parameter values. The activity level of each unit in the parameter network can be thought of as representing the confidence with which the hypothesis represented by that unit is believed. Weights in the network are set so as to implement gradient descent in an energy function.

Hoff, William↗
NASA NTRS2014

State Event Models for the Formal Analysis of Human-Machine Interactions

The work described in this paper was motivated by our experience with applying a framework for formal analysis of human-machine interactions (HMI) to a realistic model of an autopilot. The framework is built around a formally defined conformance relation called "fullcontrol" between an actual system and the mental model according to which the system is operated. Systems are well-designed if they can be described by relatively simple, full-control, mental models for their human operators. For this reason, our framework supports automated generation of minimal full-control mental models for HMI systems, where both the system and the mental models are described as labelled transition systems (LTS). The autopilot that we analysed has been developed in the NASA Ames HMI prototyping tool ADEPT. In this paper, we describe how we extended the models that our HMI analysis framework handles to allow adequate representation of ADEPT models. We then provide a property-preserving reduction from these extended models to LTSs, to enable application of our LTS-based formal analysis algorithms. Finally, we briefly discuss the analyses we were able to perform on the autopilot model with our extended framework.

State-event Models↗
DOE OSTI2019

A Multiple Lines of Evidence Approach for Conceptual Site Models in Performance Assessments - 19070

Demonstration of the long-term performance of remediated radioactive waste sites relies on models that evaluate vadose zone and groundwater flow and contaminant transport for thousands of years. Model qualification, verification, and comparisons with data are essential elements to demonstrating the accuracy of long-term performance assessments (PAs). However, comparisons with data are generally limited due to incomplete characterization data and long-time scales. Since PAs support decision making to assure long-term protection of both human health and the environment, a conceptual site model (CSM) is needed to explain the hydrodynamic behavior and account for subsurface heterogeneities in sufficient detail to support confident decisions. In the case of the Waste Management Area (WMA) C PA, where the focus of the effort is on characterizing flow and transport through a thick vadose zone, site-specific data are sparse and larger-scale geologic descriptions are adopted with the risk of losing small scale features that may affect contaminant transport. Features such as horizontal bedding and sloping interfaces between contrasting material types, as well as vertically oriented features such as clastic dikes, may be difficult to delineate from sparse characterization data, but may affect the extent to which contaminants are transported. The PA conducted to identify long-term impacts associated with the closure of the single-shell tank (SST) farm at WMA C adopted an equivalent homogenous medium approach to represent the major stratigraphic units at the site. This approach explicitly represents major stratigraphic units but assigns hydraulic properties that implicitly account for the presence of small-scale heterogeneities and their impact on flow and contaminant transport to the groundwater. The objective of this study is to evaluate the available site-specific and analogue data that can be used to characterize heterogeneity and to assess its impact on fate and transport of contaminants that may lead to different conclusions when compared to the results of the equivalent homogeneous media approach. To this end, a multiple lines of evidence approach was used to construct alternative CSMs based on an evaluation of several types of data. These data include 1) general characteristics and features of the major stratigraphic units from historical descriptions; 2) borehole geologic logs; 3) particle size distribution measurements; 4) moisture content measurements; 5) spectral gamma data; and 6) concentrations of key constituents (i.e., Tc-99) in both the vadose zone and groundwater impacted by past releases. Based on an analysis of the available data, lines of evidence are evaluated for consistency and integrated in a consistent manner into scientifically defensible CSMs. Numerical models are then used to evaluate the impact that the explicit representation of heterogeneities has on contaminant transport. Together, the field data and the numerical modeling results indicate that heterogeneity caused by the small-scale features do not have a significant (i.e. greater than a factor of 2) impact on transport below WMA C relative to peak concentrations and arrival times for potential releases from waste tanks. The results of this study underscore the value of using multiple lines of evidence based on the quantity and quality of available data in developing alternative CSMs and evaluating their relative impact on key transport metrics such as arrival times and peak concentration. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Combinatorial Reasoning: Selecting Reasons in Generative AI Pipelines via Combinatorial Optimization

Recent Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated impressive capabilities at tasks that require human intelligence and are a significant step towards human-like artificial intelligence (AI). Yet the performance of LLMs at reasoning tasks have been subpar and the reasoning capability of LLMs is a matter of significant debate. While it has been shown that the choice of the prompting technique to the LLM can alter its performance on a multitude of tasks, including reasoning, the best performing techniques require human-made prompts with the knowledge of the tasks at hand. We introduce a framework for what we call Combinatorial Reasoning (CR), a fully-automated prompting method, where reasons are sampled from an LLM pipeline and mapped into a Quadratic Unconstrained Binary Optimization (QUBO) problem. The framework investigates whether QUBO solutions can be profitably used to select a useful subset of the reasons to construct a Chain-of-Thought style prompt. We explore the acceleration of CR with specialized solvers. We also investigate the performance of simpler zero-shot strategies such as linear majority rule or random selection of reasons. Our preliminary study indicates that coupling a combinatorial solver to generative AI pipelines is an interesting avenue for AI reasoning and elucidates design principles for future CR methods.

combinatorial reasoning↗
NASA NTRS1991

Acquisition and improvement of human motor skills: Learning through observation and practice

Skilled movement is an integral part of the human existence. A better understanding of motor skills and their development is a prerequisite to the construction of truly flexible intelligent agents. We present MAEANDER, a computational model of human motor behavior, that uniformly addresses both the acquisition of skills through observation and the improvement of skills through practice. MAEANDER consists of a sensory-effector interface, a memory of movements, and a set of performance and learning mechanisms that let it recognize and generate motor skills. The system initially acquires such skills by observing movements performed by another agent and constructing a concept hierarchy. Given a stored motor skill in memory, MAEANDER will cause an effector to behave appropriately. All learning involves changing the hierarchical memory of skill concepts to more closely correspond to either observed experience or to desired behaviors. We evaluated MAEANDER empirically with respect to how well it acquires and improves both artificial movement types and handwritten script letters from the alphabet. We also evaluate MAEANDER as a psychological model by comparing its behavior to robust phenomena in humans and by considering the richness of the predictions it makes.

Iba, Wayne↗
NASA NTRS2003

Utilization of the Space Vision System as an Augmented Reality System For Mission Operations

Augmented reality is a technique whereby computer generated images are superimposed on live images for visual enhancement. Augmented reality can also be characterized as dynamic overlays when computer generated images are registered with moving objects in a live image. This technique has been successfully implemented, with low to medium levels of registration precision, in an NRA funded project entitled, "Improving Human Task Performance with Luminance Images and Dynamic Overlays". Future research is already being planned to also utilize a laboratory-based system where more extensive subject testing can be performed. However successful this might be, the problem will still be whether such a technology can be used with flight hardware. To answer this question, the Canadian Space Vision System (SVS) will be tested as an augmented reality system capable of improving human performance where the operation requires indirect viewing. This system has already been certified for flight and is currently flown on each shuttle mission for station assembly. Successful development and utilization of this system in a ground-based experiment will expand its utilization for on-orbit mission operations. Current research and development regarding the use of augmented reality technology is being simulated using ground-based equipment. This is an appropriate approach for development of symbology (graphics and annotation) optimal for human performance and for development of optimal image registration techniques. It is anticipated that this technology will become more pervasive as it matures. Because we know what and where almost everything is on ISS, this reduces the registration problem and improves the computer model of that reality, making augmented reality an attractive tool, provided we know how to use it. This is the basis for current research in this area. However, there is a missing element to this process. It is the link from this research to the current ISS video system and to flight hardware capable of utilizing this technology. This is the basis for this proposed Space Human Factors Engineering project, the determination of the display symbology within the performance limits of the Space Vision System that will objectively improve human performance. This utilization of existing flight hardware will greatly reduce the costs of implementation for flight. Besides being used onboard shuttle and space station and as a ground-based system for mission operational support, it also has great potential for science and medical training and diagnostics, remote learning, team learning, video/media conferencing, and educational outreach.

Maida, James C.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Cooperative Three-Robot System for Traversing Steep Slopes

Teamed Robots for Exploration and Science in Steep Areas (TRESSA) is a system of three autonomous mobile robots that cooperate with each other to enable scientific exploration of steep terrain (slope angles up to 90 ). Originally intended for use in exploring steep slopes on Mars that are not accessible to lone wheeled robots (Mars Exploration Rovers), TRESSA and systems like TRESSA could also be used on Earth for performing rescues on steep slopes and for exploring steep slopes that are too remote or too dangerous to be explored by humans. TRESSA is modeled on safe human climbing of steep slopes, two key features of which are teamwork and safety tethers. Two of the autonomous robots, denoted Anchorbots, remain at the top of a slope; the third robot, denoted the Cliffbot, traverses the slope. The Cliffbot drives over the cliff edge supported by tethers, which are payed out from the Anchorbots (see figure). The Anchorbots autonomously control the tension in the tethers to counter the gravitational force on the Cliffbot. The tethers are payed out and reeled in as needed, keeping the body of the Cliffbot oriented approximately parallel to the local terrain surface and preventing wheel slip by controlling the speed of descent or ascent, thereby enabling the Cliffbot to drive freely up, down, or across the slope. Due to the interactive nature of the three-robot system, the robots must be very tightly coupled. To provide for this tight coupling, the TRESSA software architecture is built on a combination of (1) the multi-robot layered behavior-coordination architecture reported in "An Architecture for Controlling Multiple Robots" (NPO-30345), NASA Tech Briefs, Vol. 28, No. 10 (October 2004), page 65, and (2) the real-time control architecture reported in "Robot Electronics Architecture" (NPO-41784), NASA Tech Briefs, Vol. 32, No. 1 (January 2008), page 28. The combination architecture makes it possible to keep the three robots synchronized and coordinated, to use data from all three robots for decision- making at each step, and to control the physical connections among the robots. In addition, TRESSA (as in prior systems that have utilized this architecture) , incorporates a capability for deterministic response to unanticipated situations from yet another architecture reported in Control Architecture for Robotic Agent Command and Sensing (NPO-43635), NASA Tech Briefs, Vol. 32, No. 10 (October 2008), page 40. Tether tension control is a major consideration in the design and operation of TRESSA. Tension is measured by force sensors connected to each tether at the Cliffbot. The direction of the tension (both azimuth and elevation) is also measured. The tension controller combines a controller to counter gravitational force and an optional velocity controller that anticipates the motion of the Cliffbot. The gravity controller estimates the slope angle from the inclination of the tethers. This angle and the weight of the Cliffbot determine the total tension needed to counteract the weight of the Cliffbot. The total needed tension is broken into components for each Anchorbot. The difference between this needed tension and the tension measured at the Cliffbot constitutes an error signal that is provided to the gravity controller. The velocity controller computes the tether speed needed to produce the desired motion of the Cliffbot. Another major consideration in the design and operation of TRESSA is detection of faults. Each robot in the TRESSA system monitors its own performance and the performance of its teammates in order to detect any system faults and prevent unsafe conditions. At startup, communication links are tested and if any robot is not communicating, the system refuses to execute any motion commands. Prior to motion, the Anchorbots attempt to set tensions in the tethers at optimal levels for counteracting the weight of the Cliffbot; if either Anchorbot fails to reach its optimal tension level within a specified time, it sends message to the other robots and the commanded motion is not executed. If any mechanical error (e.g., stalling of a motor) is detected, the affected robot sends a message triggering stoppage of the current motion. Lastly, messages are passed among the robots at each time step (10 Hz) to share sensor information during operations. If messages from any robot cease for more than an allowable time interval, the other robots detect the communication loss and initiate stoppage.

Stroupe, Ashley↗
DOE OSTI2021

Trade-offs between individual and ensemble forecasts of an emerging infectious disease

Probabilistic forecasts play an indispensable role in answering questions about the spread of newly emerged pathogens. However, uncertainties about the epidemiology of emerging pathogens can make it difficult to choose among alternative model structures and assumptions. To assess the potential for uncertainties about emerging pathogens to affect forecasts of their spread, we evaluated the performance 16 forecasting models in the context of the 2015-2016 Zika epidemic in Colombia. Each model featured a different combination of assumptions about human mobility, spatiotemporal variation in transmission potential, and the number of virus introductions. We found that which model assumptions had the most ensemble weight changed through time. We additionally identified a trade-off whereby some individual models outperformed ensemble models early in the epidemic, but on average the ensembles outperformed all individual models. Our results suggest that multiple models spanning uncertainty across alternative assumptions are necessary to obtain robust forecasts for emerging infectious diseases.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗