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DOE OSTI2020

Science & Technology Review August 2020

At Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, we focus on science and technology research to ensure our nation’s security. We also apply that expertise to solve other important national problems in energy, bioscience, and the environment. Science & Technology Review is published eight times a year to communicate, to a broad audience, the Laboratory’s scientific and technological accomplishments in fulfilling its primary missions. The publication’s goal is to help readers understand these accomplishments and appreciate their value to the individual citizen, the nation, and the world.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Peak Demand Savings from Efficiency: Opportunities and Practices [Slides]

Electricity systems are designed to meet peak demand - the maximum load during a specified period, typically in summer - even if that demand occurs only a few hours in a year. Yet most evaluations of electricity efficiency programs focus on reductions in annual energy use. However, these efficiency programs are also delivering peak demand savings at an affordable cost. A new study by the Department of Energy’s Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Berkeley Lab) explores the program administrator (PA) cost - or the cost to implement an energy efficiency program to a utility or third party administrator - of saving peak demand through efficiency programs for electric utility customers. Berkeley Lab collected data on costs, annual energy savings, and peak demand savings for electricity efficiency programs for 52 utilities and other program administrators in 15 states between 2014 and 2018. The analysis focused on eight program types that represent 68% of the peak demand savings for the utilities and program administrators studied. The findings improve our understanding of which energy efficiency programs produce the most peak demand savings and their cost performance.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2021

U.S. Industrial and Commercial Motor System Market Assessment Report Volume 1: Characteristics of the Installed Base

Motor systems are an integral part of our industrial and commercial facilities. They provide the motive force behind the fans, pumps, compressors, chillers, and conveyors in these facilities. Given their centrality to any facility’s operations, they are a critical energy end use to understand, particularly when developing technologies and policies to meet sustainability goals, improve productivity, and enhance resilience. In the late 1990s, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) conducted two seminal studies to better understand the installed stock and energy savings opportunities of industrial and commercial motor systems. In the industrial sector, The United States Industrial Electric Motor Systems Market Opportunities Assessment used primary data collected through onsite assessments and led to a greater understanding of the installed base of motor systems, their characteristics, and the opportunities for energy savings (U.S. Department of Energy, 2002). Notable findings included the following: Industrial motor systems consumed 679 billion kilowatt-hours (kWh) in 1994, representing 23 percent of U.S. electricity consumption. Cost-effective energy efficiency measures could result in 62-104 billion kWh of energy savings annually. Sixty-two percent of the energy savings potential was from fan, pump, and compressor end use equipment. Nearly half of motor system electricity consumption was attributable to approximately 3,500 facilities, or 1.5 percent of U.S. manufacturing facilities. Opportunities for Energy Savings in the Residential and Commercial Sectors with High Efficiency Electric Motors provided an evaluation of the installed stock of motor driven equipment in U.S. commercial and residential buildings and opportunities for utilization of high efficiency motors and variable speed technologies (Arthur D. Little, 1999). Notable findings included the following: Commercial motor systems consumed 343 billion kWh in 1995, with refrigeration and space conditioning constituting 93 percent of the total. Cost-effective energy efficiency measures could result in 51 billion kWh of energy savings annually. Due in no small part to these seminal studies, motor system technologies and usage characteristics have changed drastically since the late 1990s. Greater awareness of cost-effective strategies for reducing motor system electricity consumption have been developed and deployed. This includes several software tools, literature, and utility and government programs promoting energy efficiency improvements in motor driven systems. Additionally, several rounds of energy efficiency standards have been enacted, resulting in improved installed motor efficiency. The cost of variable speed drives has dropped substantially, and combined with utility rebate programs, has led to their greater adoption. Further, since these results were published, the U.S. manufacturing sector has undergone a massive transformation. Due to global competition, some sectors have relocated operations overseas. Others have brought operations onshore to avail low cost and abundant natural gas. Additionally, automation and robotics have pervaded the entire sector. Consequently, these two reports likely do not represent the current state of motor driven systems in U.S. industrial and commercial facilities. As cited in recent studies, the lack of current information on motor system electricity consumption and use characteristics limits the ability to conduct analysis on energy savings potential, develop technologies to address energy and productivity gaps, and develop programs to promote energy efficiency practices and technologies for motor systems (International Energy Agency, 2007; UNIDO, 2010; McKane and Hasanbeigi, 2011; Waide and Brunner, 2011). Specifically, the lack of information affects a range of stakeholders: Governments must rely on outdated information when setting research agendas, developing policies, and designing energy efficiency programs and offerings. Utilities and energy efficiency programs cannot identify the current market needs or potential impact when designing rebate and energy efficiency programs. Electric grid planners cannot identify motor system usage characteristics when developing plans to support the resilience of the electric grid. Manufacturers of motors, motor driven equipment, and drives are hampered when developing technologies to meet the needs of their market. Motor system end users are limited in their ability to identify energy saving opportunities within their own facilities because they do not have reliable benchmark information. In response to the lack of current information and analysis on industrial and commercial motor systems, the DOE initiated an update to these two studies. Launched in 2016 and led by Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), the Motor System Market Assessment (MSMA) provides an updated, more comprehensive assessment of the installed stock of motor systems in both the industrial and commercial sectors, a review of the supply chains supporting motor and drives in the U.S., and the performance improvement opportunity available from using best available technologies and maintenance and operation practices. The outcomes of the MSMA are documented in three U.S. Industrial and Commercial Motor System Market Assessment reports, with this report being the first listed: 1. Volume 1: Characteristics of the Installed Base (this report) documents the findings on the installed base of motor systems in the U.S. industrial and commercial sectors. Quantification of energy savings potential is not documented in this report but in Volume 3. 2. Volume 2: Motors and Drives Supply Chain Review reviews the state of supply chains for motors and drives installed in U.S. industrial and commercial facilities, focusing on advanced motor and drive technologies and their constituent materials. 3. Volume 3: Energy Savings Opportunity analyzes the energy performance improvement opportunity for the installed base of U.S. industrial and commercial motor systems. This report has been prepared as a reference for motor system stakeholders. It provides factual information as could be best determined by the assessment results and avoids speculating on any findings.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2020

DECOVALEX-2019 (Task B Final Report)

The DECOVALEX Project is an on-going international research collaboration, established in 1992, to advance the understanding and modeling of coupled Thermal (T), Hydrological (H), Mechanical (M) and Chemical (C) processes in geological in geological systems. DECOVALEX was initially motivated by the recognition that prediction of these coupled effects is an essential part of the performance and safety assessment of geologic disposal systems for radioactive waste and spent nuclear fuel. This document is the final report of Task B which was proposed and coordinated by the Swiss Federal Nuclear Safety Inspectorate (ENSI) and Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), presenting the technical definitions of the problems studied, approaches applied, achievements made and outstanding issues for future research. Task B focused mainly on modelling of fault activation experiments (FS experiment) recently performed at the Mont Terri underground research laboratory, Switzerland. The FS experiment explores the coupling between fault reactivation in a clay host rock and the potential-enhanced fluid displacement through a previously low-permeability formation. Based on this experiment, the DECOVALEX-2019 Task B addresses how the change in permeability induced by the fault activation and the resulting fluid flow within the fault can be simulated including the dependence on its mechanical behavior. This will support the understanding of the processes during fault activation itself and it can help to determine consequences for contaminant transport due to potentially created permeable flow paths in otherwise low permeability argillaceous rocks.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

FY20 LLNL Experimental Programs at Omega

In Fiscal Year 2020 (FY20), Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory’s (LLNL’s) High-Energy-Density Physics (HED) and Indirect Drive Inertial Confinement Fusion (ICF-ID) programs conducted numerous campaigns on the OMEGA and OMEGA-EP (EP) laser systems. This was the 22ndyear of National Lab collaborative experiments at OMEGA since the Nova Laser at LLNL shut down in 1999, building upon prior collaborations. In FY20overall,these LLNL programs led 375target shots, with 166shots using just the OMEGA laser system and209 shots using just the EP laser system. Approximately 34% of the total number of shots (35OMEGA shots and 93EP shots) supported the Indirect Drive Inertial Confinement Fusion Campaign. The remaining 66% (131OMEGA-only shots and 116EP-only shots) were dedicated to experiments for High-Energy-Density Physics.Highlights of the various HED and ICF-ID campaigns are summarized in the following reports.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Verification of Spent Fuel Inside Dry Storage Casks by Fast/Epi-thermal Neutron Mapping: FY2020 Annual Report to NA241 (Annual Report)

Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory has embarked upon development of a novel methodology for verification of spent fuel inside dry storage casks. The issue of verification of the integrity of spent fuel inside dry storage has been one of the most challenging technical problems facing IAEA for many decades. The difficulty arises because of the massive amount of shielding between the inner spent fuel and the outer surface where measurements can be performed. Despite many efforts, detection of useful gamma rays or neutrons from the outer surface has so far proven unsuccessful.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2021

The 2021 Defense Strategy Review and Modern Strategic Conflict (Workshop Summary)

On December 15-17, 2020, the Center for Global Security Research (CGSR) at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) hosted a workshop titled “The 2021 Defense Strategy Review and Modern Strategic Conflict.” This session was the 7 th Annual Deterrence Workshop that CGSR organized, bringing together participants drawn across the policy, military, and technical communities of the United States and its allies. The workshop examined the challenges of regional wars and multi-domain competition and how a potential 2021 defense strategy review should address them. A special attention was paid to the question of escalation and how it can be controlled at various levels of conflict.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2020

Fit for Purpose? The U.S. Nuclear Posture in 2030 and Beyond (Workshop Summary)

On June 8-10, the Center for Global Security Research (CGSR) at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) hosted a workshop titled “Fit for Purpose? The U.S. Nuclear Posture in 2030 and Beyond.” This session brought together participants drawn across the policy, military, and technical communities. The workshop aimed to examine the existing modernization plans, the challenges that might obstruct their implementation, and the new deterrence requirements that might emerge in the future, in light of the modernization efforts of Russia and China.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2020

Technical Issues in the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) Ratification Debate: A 20 Year Retrospective

Two decades after the U.S. Senate declined in 1999 to give its consent to ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT), the treaty remains in legal and political limbo. Legally, the treaty cannot enter into force without U.S. ratification. However, the Senate’s rejection does not strip the treaty of its force as an element of customary international law or alter the will of other signatories to see it enter into force. Politically, the debate over the virtues and flaws of the treaty remains as strong as ever, with some CTBT advocates pushing energetically for U.S. re-review while some opponents seek ways to “un-sign” the treaty. Meanwhile, despite the Senate’s rejection of the treaty, the United States acts in a manner consistent with its main obligations by maintaining a moratorium on explosive nuclear testing and providing financial support (as well as technical expertise) to the CTBT Organization (CTBTO)—in particular the CTBTO’s International Monitoring System (IMS). The CTBT may well remain in such limbo for a long time to come, unless some catalytic event comes along to re-shape national perceptions and priorities, one way or the other. The treaty’s future, whatever it might be, will be determined in part by how much perspectives might have changed in light of interim developments. Our purpose is to shed light on some of those developments and to assess their relevance. The 1999 ratification debate addressed a large number of issues. Rejection was driven by various policy and technical judgments. The purpose of this paper is to re-examine those technical judgments in light of what has been learned over the following two decades. On some technical matters, there was explicit recognition of extant uncertainties, as well as a conviction and hope that time would dispel them. To be doubly clear, our purpose is not to recommend a way forward on CTBT ratification. The policy judgments of 1999 and 2020 are beyond the scope of this paper. This technical re-examination proceeds as follows. It begins with a short background section to introduce the key technical matters in discussion in the U.S. ratification process. Then it moves systematically through each of those topics with a review of relevant background information, a discussion of key points in debate, an analysis of subsequent experience, and a current assessment. The historical analysis draws on many sources including the primary documents of the Congressional debate, the official article-by-article interpretation by the Department of State, and the statements of key players in the process. We also relied on key technical reports and publications by subject matter experts that have addressed in more detail many of the issues in our focus. These sources include the 2002 and 2012 reports of the National Academy of Sciences as well as publications by senior technical staff of Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) who were actively involved in the ratification debate, including then-Laboratory Director Bruce Tarter. We also conducted several interviews with government officials from the 1990s, past laboratory directors, and other members of the scientific community. But, except where individuals are specifically cited by name, the judgments offered here are our own and should not be attributed to any other individual or to LLNL as such.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗
DOE OSTI2020

Nuclear Risk Reduction in an Era of Major Power Rivalry (Workshop Summary)

On February 19-20, the Center for Global Security Research (CGSR) at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) hosted a workshop titled “Nuclear Risk Reduction in an Era of Major Power Rivalry.” This session brought together participants drawn across the policy, military, and technical communities. Among the participants, there were experts from allied countries in Europe and the Asia-Pacific region, as well as experts from Russia and China.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2020

The Next U.S. Strategic Posture - and the Posture After Next (Workshop Summary)

On July 8-10, the Center for Global Security Research (CGSR) at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) hosted a workshop titled “The Next U.S. Strategic Posture – And the Posture After Next.” This session brought together participants drawn across the policy, military, and technical communities in the United States and among allies. The event was a follow-up discussion to CGSR’s last meeting titled “Fit for Purpose? The U.S. Nuclear Posture in 2030 and Beyond.” The July workshop had a broader scope and looked at the different elements of U.S. strategic posture, including not just nuclear capabilities but missile defense, conventional prompt global strike, and space and cyberspace. Participants assessed the 2030 U.S. posture relative to the predicted Russian and Chinese postures, and they examined what capabilities will be crucial beyond 2030.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2021

The security implications of global climate change. Workshop summary

The Center for Global Security Research (CGSR) at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) hosted a workshop titled, “The Security Implications of Global Climate Change” on January 5-7, 2021, convened virtually due to the ongoing global COVID-19 pandemic. The workshop included participants from scientific/technical, defense, diplomacy, advocacy, and academic communities in the United States as well as from U.S. allies.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Establishing an Early CO 2 Storage Complex in Kemper County, Mississippi (ECO 2 S) (CarbonSAFE Phase II, Final Report)

The CarbonSAFE Phase II: Storage Complex Feasibility project, entitled “Establishing an Early CO 2 Storage Complex in Kemper County, Mississippi: Project ECO 2 S,” demonstrates that the subsurface adjacent to the Kemper County energy facility can safely and permanently store commercial-scale volumes of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ). Project ECO 2 S is led by the Southern States Energy Board (SSEB). Mississippi Power Company (MPC) serves as the site host. The project includes technical and field implementation support from Advanced Resources International (ARI) and obtains analytical support from two national laboratories (Los Alamos and Lawrence Berkeley), a host of universities, and other key participants. A 30,000-acre area of interest was established. Three new characterization wells were drilled to facilitate the detailed geologic analyses, characterization, and modeling of three prospective storage reservoirs. The results verify and validate that the subsurface reservoirs examined have gigatonne CO 2 storage potential. This final report documents the achievements of the project team in successfully attaining the goals and objectives set forth for the project and summarizes the results of the feasibility study.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2021

FWP FEW0223: "Advanced Manufactured Carbonate Materials for Algal Biomass Production: Joint LLNL SNL Program" (Final Report)

The ability to easily and cheaply transport carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) from coal-fired power plants equipped with capture facilities to multiple, potentially distant utilization sites of widely varying scales will enable wider use of CO 2 captured from flue gas. In the case of algal biomass cultivation, delivery of CO 2 in the form of carbonate-based materials may provide a more efficient and economical method of inorganic carbon delivery than CO 2 sparging, reducing the cost of algae cultivation and increasing the value of carbon capture. Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) has developed advanced manufactured materials that are well-suited for carbon capture, storage, transport, and delivery. These materials consist of aqueous sodium carbonate, which captures CO 2 as sodium bicarbonate, extruded or 3D printed in a CO 2 permeable polymer to increase the surface area and improve capture kinetics. By encapsulating carbonate solutions, LLNL has demonstrated order-of-magnitude enhancements in carbon capture rates compared with liquid carbonates, enabling the use of these (otherwise kinetically-limited) inexpensive, environmentally-benign solvents for carbon capture.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Cloud-Feedback Model Intercomparison Project: Tier 2 Simulations (Final Report)

The University of Miami (Subcontractor)’s Research Scientist James Benedict (with oversight by PI Amy Clement) was tasked with producing global climate model simulations as part of the Cloud-Feedback Model Intercomparison Project (CFMIP) Tier 2 protocol, managing the output of these simulations, providing assistance (as requested) to staff at Lawrence Livermore National Lab (LLNL) regarding model output and setup, and meeting with LLNL scientists and team members to coordinate work on the project. The simulations represent an important contribution to the CFMIP data repository and will advance understanding of a wide range of critical cloud, circulation, and precipitation responses to climate change. The Subcontractor completed all proposed simulations, formatted the model output to be compliant with CFMIP protocols, and published the model data to the CFMIP repository. When requested, the Subcontractor provided assistance to LLNL for model output and configuration queries. Benedict and/or Clement also met in person or virtually 1-2 times per year with project scientists to coordinate work and review results.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

LLNLs Neurotechnology Portfolio Presentation to Society for Brain Mapping and Therapeutics (SBMT) [Slides]

Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory has a long history in Bioengineering. They developed the first-ever bionic eye, as one example given. LLNL works in the Electroceuticals area. ELECTROnic pharmaCEUTICAL: Bioelectronic devices designed to stimulate electrically active tissues to affect biological systems in such a fashion as to alleviate or mitigate symptomatology and/or pathology. The market outlook in the Brain Computer Interface (BCI) area is discussed, as is Polymeric Opto-Electro-Mechanical Systems (POEMS). The presentation ends with iCHIP and Tissue Research topics.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Improved Performance of Cu(InGa)(SeS) 2 PV Modules Using the Reaction of Metal Precursors. Final Report

This project “Improved Performance of Cu(InGa)(SeS) 2 PV Modules using the Reaction of Metal Precursors” was a partnership led by the Institute of Energy Conversion (IEC) at the University of Delaware with Columbia University and the Molecular Foundry at the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. The aim was to develop pathways to improve Cu(InGa)(SeS) 2 (CIGSS) thin film photovoltaic modules using processes compatible with low manufacturing cost. The CIGSS approach investigated was a two-step process including deposition of metal precursor films following by reaction in hydride gases utilizing IEC’s novel reactor. The process was similar to that under commercial development by the project’s industry partner Stion. When Stion went out of business mid-project the focus changed to a rapid thermal process considered more commercially viable. Approaches to improve the performance of solar cells using the reacted films focused on two material innovations. First, the overall Ga content was increased to increase the operating voltage, which is desirable for scale-up to commercial modules. Second, the processing and performance advantages arising from Ag alloying were investigated. Advanced characterization guided process and material development including control of relative composition gradients. Research on the formation of Cu-Ga-In metal precursors utilized sputtering deposition which is normally used in commercial applications. The work resulted in processes for deposition of precursor stacks with increased relative Ga content and effects of deposition parameters on morphology and phase composition were established. It was shown that the metal precursor films have comparable phase composition and morphology so subsequent reaction follows from the same starting point. The addition of Ag to the metal precursors gave more uniform morphology and improved adhesion of reacted films which enable higher reaction temperature for faster processing. A novel outcome was the discovery of a previously undocumented material phase in sputter-deposited and evaporated Ag-Cu-In-Ga thin films. Hydride gas reaction processes including time-temperature-concentration profiles were developed for different precursor compositions. This enables control of composition profiles to engineer through-film gradients for solar cell optimization with characterization and simulations used to correlate measured film composition profiles to measurements of devices. In particular, the gradient of sulfur at the front of the CIGSS film was found to be critical. The simulations guided process development leading to improved reproducibility of devices improved performance with higher Ga content and higher voltage. With Ag-alloyed precursors, the reaction pathways leading were determined. A significant finding was that Ag-alloying increases the reaction rate to completely convert precursor films to the final chalcopyrite which could enable reduced reaction time to benefit manufacturability. To maintain potential commercial viability, the process under investigation was refocused to a rapid thermal process that could potentially be incorporated into an in-line process for manufacturing. Precursors with different composition were capped with an extra selenium layer and reacted in hydrogen sulfide 5-15 minutes, compared to typically 2 hours in the previous multi-step batch process. Critical RTP parameters were identified to control the reaction. Further optimization would be needed for high efficiency solar cells but pathways to high quality devices with further optimization and improved heating uniformity were developed. The project also developed new optoelectronic characterization approaches with a focus on development and application of spatial- and time-resolved photoluminescence and a custom mapping photoluminescence microscope built. It was shown how critical electronic transport properties strongly depend on the chemical composition of the material and that a wide range of samples show inhomogeneity on a length scale larger than the grains in the films. Additionally, two-photon excitation capability was developed to distinguish bulk vs surface losses. The project advances the state-of-the -art for precursor reaction processes in several ways that could impact manufacturing. This includes validation of approaches to increase voltage and establishment of model-guided control to form optimal composition profiles. The application of process control approaches with knowledge of phase formation and reaction pathways can be critically valuable in designing a large-scale process.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Preliminary Design of a New Pulsed-Neutron Die-Away Experimental Testbed for Thermal Scattering Law Benchmarks (PNDA) (IER-501 CED-1)

This report presents the preliminary design (CED-1) of IER-501, a new testbed for pulsed-neutron die-away (PNDA) experiments at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL). The PNDA experiments will be high-quality benchmarks that serve to optimize and validate thermal scattering laws (TSLs), which are high-priority nuclear data for the Department of Energy’s Criticality Safety Program (NCSP). PNDA experiments can be used to generate nuclear data validation benchmarks quickly and cheaply, as they do not require fissile material or a nuclear facility to conduct them.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗