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At least 649 records · Page 36

Modeling the Information Age Combat Model: An Agent-Based Simulation of Network Centric Operations

The Information Age Combat Model (IACM) was introduced by Cares in 2005 to contribute to the development of an understanding of the influence of connectivity on force effectiveness that can eventually lead to quantitative prediction and guidelines for design and employment. The structure of the IACM makes it clear that the Perron-Frobenius Eigenvalue is a quantifiable metric with which to measure the organization of a networked force. The results of recent experiments presented in Deller, et aI., (2009) indicate that the value of the Perron-Frobenius Eigenvalue is a significant measurement of the performance of an Information Age combat force. This was accomplished through the innovative use of an agent-based simulation to model the IACM and represents an initial contribution towards a new generation of combat models that are net-centric instead of using the current platform-centric approach. This paper describes the intent, challenges, design, and initial results of this agent-based simulation model.

Deller, Sean↗

Microstructural Characterization of Metal Foams: An Examination of the Applicability of the Theoretical Models for Modeling Foams

Establishing the geometry of foam cells is useful in developing microstructure-based acoustic and structural models. Since experimental data on the geometry of the foam cells are limited, most modeling efforts use the three-dimensional, space-filling Kelvin tetrakaidecahedron. The validity of this assumption is investigated in the present paper. Several FeCrAlY foams with relative densities varying between 3 and 15 percent and cells per mm (c.p.mm.) varying between 0.2 and 3.9 c.p.mm. were microstructurally evaluated. The number of edges per face for each foam specimen was counted by approximating the cell faces by regular polygons, where the number of cell faces measured varied between 207 and 745. The present observations revealed that 50 to 57 percent of the cell faces were pentagonal while 24 to 28 percent were quadrilateral and 15 to 22 percent were hexagonal. The present measurements are shown to be in excellent agreement with literature data. It is demonstrated that the Kelvin model, as well as other proposed theoretical models, cannot accurately describe the FeCrAlY foam cell structure. Instead, it is suggested that the ideal foam cell geometry consists of 11 faces with 3 quadrilateral, 6 pentagonal faces and 2 hexagonal faces consistent with the 3-6-2 cell.

Raj, S. V.↗

Modeling Progressive Damage Using Local Displacement Discontinuities Within the FEAMAC Multiscale Modeling Framework

A method for performing progressive damage modeling in composite materials and structures based on continuum level interfacial displacement discontinuities is presented. The proposed method enables the exponential evolution of the interfacial compliance, resulting in unloading of the tractions at the interface after delamination or failure occurs. In this paper, the proposed continuum displacement discontinuity model has been used to simulate failure within both isotropic and orthotropic materials efficiently and to explore the possibility of predicting the crack path, therein. Simulation results obtained from Mode-I and Mode-II fracture compare the proposed approach with the cohesive element approach and Virtual Crack Closure Techniques (VCCT) available within the ABAQUS (ABAQUS, Inc.) finite element software. Furthermore, an eccentrically loaded 3-point bend test has been simulated with the displacement discontinuity model, and the resulting crack path prediction has been compared with a prediction based on the extended finite element model (XFEM) approach.

Ranatunga, Vipul↗

Corrigendum to "Microstructural Characterization of Metal Foams: An Examination of the Applicability of the Theoretical Models for Modeling Foams"

Establishing the geometry of foam cells is useful in developing microstructure-based acoustic and structural models. Since experimental data on the geometry of the foam cells are limited, most modeling efforts use an idealized three-dimensional, space-filling Kelvin tetrakaidecahedron. The validity of this assumption is investigated in the present paper. Several FeCrAlY foams with relative densities varying between 3 and 15% and cells per mm (c.p.mm.) varying between 0.2 and 3.9 c.p.mm. were microstructurally evaluated. The number of edges per face for each foam specimen was counted by approximating the cell faces by regular polygons, where the number of cell faces measured varied between 207 and 745. The present observations revealed that 50-57% of the cell faces were pentagonal while 24-28% were quadrilateral and 15-22% were hexagonal. The present measurements are shown to be in excellent agreement with literature data. It is demonstrated that the Kelvin model, as well as other proposed theoretical models, cannot accurately describe the FeCrAlY foam cell structure. Instead, it is suggested that the ideal foam cell geometry consists of 11 faces with 3 quadrilateral, 6 pentagonal faces and 2 hexagonal faces consistent with the 3-6-2 Matzke cell

Raj. Sai V.↗

Implementation of a Sage-Based Stirling Model Into a System-Level Numerical Model of the Fission Power System Technology Demonstration Unit

The Fission Power System (FPS) project is developing a Technology Demonstration Unit (TDU) to verify the performance and functionality of a subscale version of the FPS reference concept in a relevant environment, and to verify component and system models. As hardware is developed for the TDU, component and system models must be refined to include the details of specific component designs. This paper describes the development of a Sage-based pseudo-steady-state Stirling convertor model and its implementation into a system-level model of the TDU.

Briggs, Maxwell H.↗

JPL Thermal Design Modeling Philosophy and NASA-STD-7009 Standard for Models and Simulations - A Case Study

The Standard JPL thermal engineering practice prescribes worst-case methodologies for design. In this process, environmental and key uncertain thermal parameters (e.g., thermal blanket performance, interface conductance, optical properties) are stacked in a worst case fashion to yield the most hot- or cold-biased temperature. Thus, these simulations would represent the upper and lower bounds. This, effectively, represents JPL thermal design margin philosophy. Uncertainty in the margins and the absolute temperatures is usually estimated by sensitivity analyses and/or by comparing the worst-case results with "expected" results. Applicability of the analytical model for specific design purposes along with any temperature requirement violations are documented in peer and project design review material. In 2008, NASA released NASA-STD-7009, Standard for Models and Simulations. The scope of this standard covers the development and maintenance of models, the operation of simulations, the analysis of the results, training, recommended practices, the assessment of the Modeling and Simulation (M&S) credibility, and the reporting of the M&S results. The Mars Exploration Rover (MER) project thermal control system M&S activity was chosen as a case study determining whether JPL practice is in line with the standard and to identify areas of non-compliance. This paper summarizes the results and makes recommendations regarding the application of this standard to JPL thermal M&S practices.

thermal blanket performance↗

Metroplex Optimization Model Expansion and Analysis: The Airline Fleet, Route, and Schedule Optimization Model (AFRS-OM)

This report describes the Airline Fleet, Route, and Schedule Optimization Model (AFRS-OM) that is designed to provide insights into airline decision-making with regards to markets served, schedule of flights on these markets, the type of aircraft assigned to each scheduled flight, load factors, airfares, and airline profits. The main inputs to the model are hedged fuel prices, airport capacity limits, and candidate markets. Embedded in the model are aircraft performance and associated cost factors, and willingness-to-pay (i.e. demand vs. airfare curves). Case studies demonstrate the application of the model for analysis of the effects of increased capacity and changes in operating costs (e.g. fuel prices). Although there are differences between airports (due to differences in the magnitude of travel demand and sensitivity to airfare), the system is more sensitive to changes in fuel prices than capacity. Further, the benefits of modernization in the form of increased capacity could be undermined by increases in hedged fuel prices

Sherry, Lance↗

A Model of Rapid Radicalization Behavior Using Agent-Based Modeling and Quorum Sensing

Understanding the dynamics of radicalization, especially rapid radicalization, has become increasingly important to US policy in the past several years. Traditionally, radicalization is considered a slow process, but recent social and political events demonstrate that the process can occur quickly. Examining this rapid process, in real time, is impossible. However, recreating an event using modeling and simulation (M&S) allows researchers to study some of the complex dynamics associated with rapid radicalization. We propose to adapt the biological mechanism of quorum sensing as a tool to explore, or possibly explain, rapid radicalization. Due to the complex nature of quorum sensing, M&S allows us to examine events that we could not otherwise examine in real time. For this study, we employ Agent Based Modeling (ABM), an M&S paradigm suited to modeling group behavior. The result of this study was the successful creation of rapid radicalization using quorum sensing. The Battle of Mogadishu was the inspiration for this model and provided the testing conditions used to explore quorum sensing and the ideas behind rapid radicalization. The final product has wider applicability however, using quorum sensing as a possible tool for examining other catalytic rapid radicalization events.

Schwartz, Noah↗

Elastic-Plastic J-Integral Solutions or Surface Cracks in Tension Using an Interpolation Methodology. Appendix C -- Finite Element Models Solution Database File, Appendix D -- Benchmark Finite Element Models Solution Database File

No closed form solutions exist for the elastic-plastic J-integral for surface cracks due to the nonlinear, three-dimensional nature of the problem. Traditionally, each surface crack must be analyzed with a unique and time-consuming nonlinear finite element analysis. To overcome this shortcoming, the authors have developed and analyzed an array of 600 3D nonlinear finite element models for surface cracks in flat plates under tension loading. The solution space covers a wide range of crack shapes and depths (shape: 0.2 less than or equal to a/c less than or equal to 1, depth: 0.2 less than or equal to a/B less than or equal to 0.8) and material flow properties (elastic modulus-to-yield ratio: 100 less than or equal to E/ys less than or equal to 1,000, and hardening: 3 less than or equal to n less than or equal to 20). The authors have developed a methodology for interpolating between the goemetric and material property variables that allows the user to reliably evaluate the full elastic-plastic J-integral and force versus crack mouth opening displacement solution; thus, a solution can be obtained very rapidly by users without elastic-plastic fracture mechanics modeling experience. Complete solutions for the 600 models and 25 additional benchmark models are provided in tabular format.

Allen, Phillip A.↗

Technical Report Series on Global Modeling and Data Assimilation: Global Surface Ocean Carbon Estimates in a Model Forced by MERRA - Volume 31

MERRA products were used to force an established ocean biogeochemical model to estimate surface carbon inventories and fluxes in the global oceans. The results were compared to public archives of in situ carbon data and estimates. The model exhibited skill for ocean dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), partial pressure of ocean CO2 (pCO2) and air-sea fluxes (FCO2). The MERRA-forced model produced global mean differences of 0.02% (approximately 0.3 microns) for DIC, -0.3% (about -1.2 (micro) atm; model lower) for pCO2, and -2.3% (-0.003 mol C/sq m/y) for FCO2 compared to in situ estimates. Basin-scale distributions were significantly correlated with observations for all three variables (r=0.97, 0.76, and 0.73, P<0.05, respectively for DIC, pCO2, and FCO2). All major oceanographic basins were represented as sources to the atmosphere or sinks in agreement with in situ estimates. However, there were substantial basin-scale and local departures.

Gregg, Watson W.↗

Modeling Increased Complexity and the Reliance on Automation: FLightdeck Automation Problems (FLAP) Model

This paper highlights the development of a model that is focused on the safety issue of increasing complexity and reliance on automation systems in transport category aircraft. Recent statistics show an increase in mishaps related to manual handling and automation errors due to pilot complacency and over-reliance on automation, loss of situational awareness, automation system failures and/or pilot deficiencies. Consequently, the aircraft can enter a state outside the flight envelope and/or air traffic safety margins which potentially can lead to loss-of-control (LOC), controlled-flight-into-terrain (CFIT), or runway excursion/confusion accidents, etc. The goal of this modeling effort is to provide NASA's Aviation Safety Program (AvSP) with a platform capable of assessing the impacts of AvSP technologies and products towards reducing the relative risk of automation related accidents and incidents. In order to do so, a generic framework, capable of mapping both latent and active causal factors leading to automation errors, is developed. Next, the framework is converted into a Bayesian Belief Network model and populated with data gathered from Subject Matter Experts (SMEs). With the insertion of technologies and products, the model provides individual and collective risk reduction acquired by technologies and methodologies developed within AvSP.

Ancel, Ersin↗

Nonlinear Modeling by Assembling Piecewise Linear Models

To preserve nonlinearity of a full order system over a parameters range of interest, we propose a simple modeling approach by assembling a set of piecewise local solutions, including the first-order Taylor series terms expanded about some sampling states. The work by Rewienski and White inspired our use of piecewise linear local solutions. The assembly of these local approximations is accomplished by assigning nonlinear weights, through radial basis functions in this study. The efficacy of the proposed procedure is validated for a two-dimensional airfoil moving at different Mach numbers and pitching motions, under which the flow exhibits prominent nonlinear behaviors. All results confirm that our nonlinear model is accurate and stable for predicting not only aerodynamic forces but also detailed flowfields. Moreover, the model is robustness-accurate for inputs considerably different from the base trajectory in form and magnitude. This modeling preserves nonlinearity of the problems considered in a rather simple and accurate manner.

Yao, Weigang↗

Second-Moment RANS Model Verification and Validation Using the Turbulence Modeling Resource Website (Invited)

The implementation of the SSG/LRR-omega differential Reynolds stress model into the NASA flow solvers CFL3D and FUN3D and the DLR flow solver TAU is verified by studying the grid convergence of the solution of three different test cases from the Turbulence Modeling Resource Website. The model's predictive capabilities are assessed based on four basic and four extended validation cases also provided on this website, involving attached and separated boundary layer flows, effects of streamline curvature and secondary flow. Simulation results are compared against experimental data and predictions by the eddy-viscosity models of Spalart-Allmaras (SA) and Menter's Shear Stress Transport (SST).

Eisfeld, Bernhard↗

Modeling to Mars: a NASA Model Based Systems Engineering Pathfinder Effort

The NASA Engineering Safety Center (NESC) Systems Engineering (SE) Technical Discipline Team (TDT) initiated the Model Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) Pathfinder effort in FY16. The goals and objectives of the MBSE Pathfinder include developing and advancing MBSE capability across NASA, applying MBSE to real NASA issues, and capturing issues and opportunities surrounding MBSE. The Pathfinder effort consisted of four teams, with each team addressing a particular focus area. This paper focuses on Pathfinder team 1 with the focus area of architectures and mission campaigns. These efforts covered the timeframe of February 2016 through September 2016. The team was comprised of eight team members from seven NASA Centers (Glenn Research Center, Langley Research Center, Ames Research Center, Goddard Space Flight Center IV&V Facility, Johnson Space Center, Marshall Space Flight Center, and Stennis Space Center). Collectively, the team had varying levels of knowledge, skills and expertise in systems engineering and MBSE. The team applied their existing and newly acquired system modeling knowledge and expertise to develop modeling products for a campaign (Program) of crew and cargo missions (Projects) to establish a human presence on Mars utilizing In-Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU). Pathfinder team 1 developed a subset of modeling products that are required for a Program System Requirement Review (SRR)/System Design Review (SDR) and Project Mission Concept Review (MCR)/SRR as defined in NASA Procedural Requirements. Additionally, Team 1 was able to perform and demonstrate some trades and constraint analyses. At the end of these efforts, over twenty lessons learned and recommended next steps have been identified.

Phojanamongkolkij, Nipa↗

Aerosol-Radiation-Cloud Interactions in the South-East Atlantic: Model-Relevant Observations and the Beneficiary Modeling Efforts in the Realm of the EVS-2 Project ORACLES

Globally, aerosols remain a major contributor to uncertainties in assessments of anthropogenically-induced changes to the Earth climate system, despite concerted efforts using satellite and suborbital observations and increasingly sophisticated models. The quantification of direct and indirect aerosol radiative effects, as well as cloud adjustments thereto, even at regional scales, continues to elude our capabilities. Some of our limitations are due to insufficient sampling and accuracy of the relevant observables, under an appropriate range of conditions to provide useful constraints for modeling efforts at various climate scales. In this talk, I will describe (1) the efforts of our group at NASA Ames to develop new airborne instrumentation to address some of the data insufficiencies mentioned above; (2) the efforts by the EVS-2 ORACLES project to address aerosol-cloud-climate interactions in the SE Atlantic and (3) time permitting, recent results from a synergistic use of A-Train aerosol data to test climate model simulations of present-day direct radiative effects in some of the AEROCOM phase II global climate models.

Redemann, Jens↗

Atmospheric Chemistry Modeling Using a Regression Forest Model

Atmospheric chemistry is central to many environmental issues such as air pollution, climate change, and stratospheric ozone loss. Chemistry Transport Models (CTM) are a central tool for understanding these issues, whether for research or for forecasting. These models split the atmosphere in a large number of grid-boxes and consider the emission of compounds into these boxes and their subsequent transport, deposition, and chemical processing. The chemistry is represented through a series of simultaneous ordinary differential equations, one for each compound. Given the difference in life-times between the chemical compounds (milli-seconds for O1D to years for CH4) these equations are numerically stiff and solving them consists of a significant fraction of the computational burden of a CTM. We have investigated a machine learning approach to solving the differential equations instead of solving them numerically. From an annual simulation of the GEOS-Chem model we have produced a training dataset consisting of the concentration of compounds before and after the differential equations are solved, together with some key physical parameters for every grid-box and time-step. From this dataset we have trained a machine learning algorithm (regression forest) to be able to predict the concentration of the compounds after the integration step based on the concentrations and physical state at the beginning of the time step. We have then included this algorithm back into the GEOS-Chem model, bypassing the need to integrate the chemistry. This machine learning approach shows many of the characteristics of the full simulation and has the potential to be substantially faster. There are a wide range of application for such an approach - generating boundary conditions, for use in air quality forecasts, chemical data assimilation systems, centennial scale climate simulations etc. We discuss our approches' speed and accuracy, and highlight some potential future directions for improving this approach.

Keller, Christoph A.↗

Satellite Constellation Cost Modeling: An Aggregate Model

Satellite constellations and Distributed Spacecraft Mission (DSM) architectures offer unique benefits to Earth observation scientists and unique challenges to cost estimators. The Cost and Risk (CR) module of the Tradespace Analysis Tool for Constellations (TAT-C) being developed by NASA Goddard seeks to address some of these challenges by providing a new approach to cost modeling, which aggregates existing Cost Estimating Relationships (CER) from respected sources, cost estimating best practices, and data from existing and proposed satellite designs. Cost estimation through this tool is approached from two perspectives: parametric cost estimating relationships and analogous cost estimation techniques. The dual approach utilized within the TAT-C CR module is intended to address prevailing concerns regarding early design stage cost estimates, and offer increased transparency and fidelity by offering two preliminary perspectives on mission cost. This work outlines the existing cost model, details assumptions built into the model, and explains what measures have been taken to address the particular challenges of constellation cost estimating. The risk estimation portion of the TAT-C CR module is still in development and will be presented in future work. The cost estimate produced by the CR module is not intended to be an exact mission valuation, but rather a comparative tool to assist in the exploration of the constellation design tradespace. Previous work has noted that estimating the cost of satellite constellations is difficult given that no comprehensive model for constellation cost estimation has yet been developed, and as such, quantitative assessment of multiple spacecraft missions has many remaining areas of uncertainty. By incorporating well-established CERs with preliminary approaches to approaching these uncertainties, the CR module offers more complete approach to constellation costing than has previously been available to mission architects or Earth scientists seeking to leverage the capabilities of multiple spacecraft working in support of a common goal.

Science Data Processing↗

Multi-Model Mean Nitrogen and Sulfur Deposition from the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP): Evaluation of Historical and Projected Future Changes

We present multi-model global datasets of nitrogen and sulfate deposition covering time periods from 1850 to 2100, calculated within the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP). The computed deposition fluxes are compared to surface wet deposition and ice core measurements.We use a new dataset of wet deposition for 2000-2002 based on critical assessment of the quality of existing regional network data. We show that for present day (year 2000 ACCMIP time slice), the ACCMIP results perform similarly to previously published multi-model assessments. For this time slice, we find a multimodel mean deposition of approximately 50 Tg(N) yr−1 from nitrogen oxide emissions, 60 Tg(N) yr−1 from ammonia emissions, and 83 Tg(S) yr−1 from sulfur emissions. The analysis of changes between 1980 and 2000 indicates significant differences between model and measurements over the United States but less so over Europe. This difference points towards a potential misrepresentation of 1980 NH3 emissions over North America. Based on ice core records, the 1850 deposition fluxes agree well with Greenland ice cores, but the change between 1850 and 2000 seems to be overestimated in the Northern Hemisphere for both nitrogen and sulfur species. Using the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) to define the projected climate and atmospheric chemistry related emissions and concentrations, we find large regional nitrogen deposition increases in 2100 in Latin America, Africa and parts of Asia under some of the scenarios considered. Increases in South Asia are especially large, and are seen in all scenarios, with 2100 values more than double their 2000 counterpart in some scenarios and reaching >1300 mg(N)m−2 yr−1 averaged over regional to continental-scale regions in RCP 2.6 and 8.5, 30-50% larger than the values in any region currently (circa 2000). However, sulfur deposition rates in 2100 are in all regions lower than in 2000 in all the RCPs. The new ACCMIP multimodel deposition dataset provides state-of-the-science, consistent and evaluated time slice (spanning 1850-2100) global gridded deposition fields for use in a wide range of climate and ecological studies.

Lamarque, J.-F.↗