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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 649 records · Page 36
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1977

Numerical simulation of the Gulf Stream and Mid-Ocean eddies

Oceanographic field measurements have revealed intense, transient mesoscale motions in many parts of the world ocean. The circulation of the western North Atlantic, considered in the present study as a rectangular basin, is simulated with a primitive equation model that has five levels and a horizontal grid size of 37 km. The model ocean is driven by a 2.5 gyre pattern of steady zonal wind stress and by a Newtonian-type surface heating. Two cases are considered: the first uses a Laplacian formulation for the subgrid-scale lateral diffusions of heat and momentum; the second uses a highly scale-selective biharmonic formulation for these diffusions. An analysis of the heat transport, in the biharmonic experiment, shows that the horizontal transport of heat by eddies is much larger than the subgrid-scale horizontal heat diffusion. In the Gulf Stream region, the eddy heat transport is comparable to the effect of a lateral diffusion coefficient of 10 to the 7th sq cm/s.

Semtner, A. J., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Internal structure of Io and the global distribution of its topography

A global topography is presently calculated for two multilayer Io models in which dissipation occurs in a viscous asthenosphere and a solid mantle: (1) a 'thermal swell' model, in which topography and heat flow are positively correlated, and (2) a 'differentiated lithosphere' model, in which topography and heat flow are negatively correlated. Both the polar topography and the hypsometric distribution of elevations in the differentiated lithosphere model are better matched with observations than the thermal swell model. The shift of the equatorial basin-swell pattern indicates a recent zonal rotation of about 25 deg for Io's lithosphere.

Ross, M. N.↗
NASA NTRS2023

Irrigation in the Earth System

Irrigation accounts for ~70% of global freshwater withdrawals and ~90% of consumptive water use, driving myriad Earth system impacts. In this Review, we summarize how irrigation currently impacts key components of the Earth system. Estimates suggest that more than 3.6 million km 2 of currently irrigated land, with hot spots in the intensively cultivated US High Plains, California Central Valley, Indo-Gangetic Basin and northern China. Process-based models estimate that ~2,700 ± 540 km 3 irrigation water is withdrawn globally each year, broadly consistent with country-reported values despite these estimates embedding substantial uncertainties. Expansive irrigation has modified surface energy balance and biogeochemical cycling. A shift from sensible to latent heat fluxes, and resulting land–atmosphere feedbacks, generally reduce regional growing season surface temperatures by ~1–3 °C. Irrigation can ameliorate temperature extremes in some regions, but conversely exacerbates moist heat stress. Modelled precipitation responses are more varied, with some intensive cropping regions exhibiting suppressed local precipitation but enhanced precipitation downstream owing to atmospheric circulation interactions. Additionally, irrigation could enhance cropland carbon uptake; however, it can also contribute to elevated methane fluxes in rice systems and mobilize nitrogen loading to groundwater. Cross-disciplinary, integrative research efforts can help advance understanding of these irrigation–Earth system interactions, and identify and reduce uncertainties, biases and limitations.

Climate sciences↗
DOE OSTI2021

Water Management Cost Assessment of CO2 Storage Operations

A three panel poster providing an analysis of treatment of produced waters from potential CO2 storage reservoirs. Selected water treatment technologies are modeled for several formations in five sedimentary basins in the lower 48 states assessing storage costs across a range of water quality present in these potential CO2 storage reservoirs.

Wendt, Anna↗
DOE OSTI2020

Evaluation of Techniques for Vegetation Removal from UAV-Based Photogrammetric DSM near WIPP Land Withdrawal Act Boundary, NM

The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant is located within New Mexico's karst landscape and is the United States' only deep geologic radioactive waste repository which isolates transuranic waste from defense activities underground in a bedded salt formation. Characteristic karst topography in this region is made up of material (such as limestone) that can be dissolved by water over a long period of time, and includes features such as springs, surface streams, sinking streams, caves, and sinkholes. Karst features can potentially impact the integrity of the waste repository in the future and compromise WIPP's performance, particularly when coupled with incompatible land-use activities within the Land Withdrawal Act (LWA) boundary as well as increased water withdrawals outside the LWA. In order to better capture the ground surface topography to support hydrology modeling efforts, the U.S. DOE has enlisted FIU to develop a high-resolution digital elevation model (DEM). In a previous field study, a high-resolution digital surface model (DSM) of an adjacent representative site, Basin 6, was developed by photogrammetry using aerial images captured with unmanned aerial vehicles. The DSM generated was based on point clouds representing the entire landscapes, including points of terrain, vegetation and infrastructure. These above-ground features need to be removed to create a DSM/DEM with good representation of the bare ground. In recent years, many techniques including both pre- and post-processing of DSMs, were developed for vegetation removal with varied success. This research focuses on applying and comparing various vegetation removal methods using point clouds generated of the Basin 6 pilot study area. The 3D RGB-based point cloud classification using Python scripts was a modification of the procedure by Themistocleous (2019). The method using Liblas classifies the point cloud three-dimensionally, whereas the method by Themistocleous (2019) is two-dimensional. The preliminary result of the method using Liblas, however, still had a large amount of vegetation remaining compared to the Pix4D Machine Learning method. The vegetation layer remains highly visible in the DEMs processed using the vegetation indices as opposed to the Pix4D Machine Learning method, which produces a DEM where mostly bare ground is seen. Further modifications to the input parameters are required to improve the vegetation vs. bare ground classification using this approach. The next step will be to improve the method using Liblas and to also test other vegetation removal methods found in the literature review to compare them against the two described here.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2018

Geocellular model of St. Peter Sandstone for University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign DDU Feasibility Study

The geocellular model of the St. Peter Sandstone was constructed for the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign DDU feasibility study. Starting with the initial area of review (18.0 km by 18.1 km [11.2 miles by 11.3 miles]) the boundaries of the model were trimmed down to 9.7 km by 9.7 km (6 miles by 6 miles) to ensure that the model enclosed a large enough volume so that the cones of depression of both the production and injection wells would not interact with each other, while at the same time minimizing the number of cells to model to reduce computational time. The grid-cell size was set to 61.0 m by 61.0 m (200 feet by 200 feet) for 160 nodes in the X and Y directions. The top surface of the St. Peter Sandstone was provided by geologists working on the project, and the average thickness of the formation was taken from the geologic prospectus they provided. An average thickness of 68.6 m (225 feet) was used for the St. Peter Sandstone, resulting in 45 layers for the model. Petrophysical data was taken from available rotary sidewall core data (Morrow et al., 2017). As geothermal properties (thermal conductivity, specific heat capacity) are closely related to mineralogy, specifically the percentage of quartz, available mineralogical data was assembled and used with published data of geothermal values to determine these properties (Waples and Waples, 2004; Robertson, 1988). The St. Peter Sandstone was divided into facies according to similar geothermal and petrophysical properties, and distributed according to available geophysical log data and prevailing interpretations of the depositional/diagenetic history (Will et al. 2014). Petrophysical and geothermal properties were distributed through geostatistical means according to the associated distributions for each lithofacies. The formation temperature was calculated, based on data from continuous temperature geophysical log from a deep well drilled into the Precambrian basement at the nearby Illinois Basin Decatur Project (IBDP) where CO2 is currently being sequestered (Schlumberger, 2012). Salinity values used in the model were taken from regional studies of brine chemistry in the St. Peter Sandstone, including for the IBDP (e.g., Panno et al. 2018). After being reviewed by the project's geologists, the model was then passed onto the geological engineers to begin simulations of the geothermal reservoir and wellbores.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2018

Geocellular Model of Mt. Simon Sandstone for University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign DDU feasibility study

The geocellular model of the Mt. Simon Sandstone was constructed for the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign DDU feasibility study. Starting with the initial area of review (18.0 km by 18.1 km [11.2 miles by 11.3 miles]) the boundaries of the model were trimmed down to 9.7 km by 9.7 km (6 miles by 6 miles) to ensure that the model enclosed a large enough volume so that the cones of depression of both the production and injection wells would not interact with each other, while at the same time minimizing the number of cells to model to reduce computational time. The grid-cell size was set to 61.0 m by 61.0 m (200 feet by 200 feet) for 160 nodes in the X and Y directions. Within the model, 67 layers are represented that are parameterized with their sediment/rock properties and petrophysical data. The top surface of the Mt. Simon Sandstone was provided by geologists working on the project, and the average thickness of the formation was taken from the geologic prospectus they provided. An average thickness of 762 m (2500 feet) was used for the Mt. Simon Sandstone, resulting in 60 layers for the model. Petrophysical data was taken from available rotary sidewall core data (Morrow et al., 2017). As geothermal properties (thermal conductivity, specific heat capacity) are closely related to mineralogy, specifically the percentage of quartz, available mineralogical data was assembled and used with published data of geothermal values to determine these properties (Waples and Waples, 2004; Robertson, 1988). The Mt. Simon Sandstone was divided into three separate units (lower, middle, upper) according to similar geothermal and petrophysical properties, and distributed according to available geophysical log data and prevailing interpretations of the depositional/diagenetic history (Freiburg et al. 2016). Petrophysical and geothermal properties were distributed through geostatistical means according to the associated distributions for each lithofacies. The formation temperature was calculated, based on data from continuous temperature geophysical log from a deep well drilled into the Precambrian basement at the nearby Illinois Basin Decatur Project (IBDP) where CO2 is currently being sequestered (Schlumberger, 2012). Salinity values used in the model were taken from regional studies of brine chemistry in the Mt. Simon Sandstone, including for the IBDP (e.g., Panno et al. 2018). After being reviewed by the project's geologists, the model was then passed onto the geological engineers to begin simulations of the geothermal reservoir and wellbores.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS2023

Future Increases in Amazonia Water 1 Stress from CO2 Physiology and Deforestation

Several different drivers are contributing to climate change within the Amazon basin, including forcing from greenhouse gases and aerosols, plant physiology responses to rising CO 2 , and deforestation. Attribution among these drivers has not been quantified for Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) climate simulations. Here we identify the contribution of CO 2 physiology and deforestation to future hydroclimate change in the Amazon basin by combining information from four experiments and eight different Earth system models in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6. Together, forcing from CO 2 physiology and deforestation account for about 44% of the projected annual precipitation decline, 48% of surface relative humidity decline and 11% of warming over the Amazon basin by 2100 for SSP3-7.0. Other Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 SSP simulations have similar contributions from the two drivers. Insight from our attribution analysis can aid in identifying research priorities aimed at reducing uncertainty in future projections of water availability, carbon dynamics and wildfire risk.

Yue Li↗
NASA NTRS1988

Determination of convergence rates across the Ventura Basin, Southern California, using GPS and historical triangulation

Comparison of angles from historical triangulation observations dating as far back as 1932 with Global Positions System (GPS) measurements taken in 1987 indicates that rapid convergence may be taking place on decade timescales in the central and eastern part of the Ventura basin, an east-west trending trough bounded by thrust faults. Changes in angles over this time were analyzed using Prescott's modified Frank's method and in terms of a model which assumes that the regions to the north and south of the basin are rigid blocks undergoing relative motion. For the two block model, inversion of the observed angle changes over the last 28 years for the relative motion vector leads to north-south convergence across the basin of 30 + or - 5 mm/yr, with a left lateral component of 10 + or - 1 mm/yr in the Fillmore-Santa Paula area in the central part of the basin. The modified Frank's method yields strain rates of approximately 2 microrad/yr in both the east and central parts of the basin for measurements spanning the 1971 San Fernando earthquake. Assuming no east-west strain yeilds north-south compression of approximately 3.5 + or - .2 cm/yr. Comparison of triangulation data prior to the earthquake shows no strain outside the margin of error. The convergence rates determined by geodetic techniques are consistent with geologic observations in the area. Such large geodetic deformation rates, with no apparent near-surface creep on the major thrust, can be understood if these faults become subhorizontal at relatively shallow depths and if the subhorizontal portions of the faults are creeping. An alternative explanation of the large displacement rates might be that the pumping of oil in the vicinity of the benchmarks caused large horizontal motions, although it is unlikely that meter scale horizontal motions are due to oil withdrawal. These and other hypotheses are evaluated to better constrain the tectonics of this active region.

Donnellan, Andrea↗
DOE OSTI2015

Modeling the global emission, transport and deposition of trace elements associated with mineral dust

Trace element deposition from desert dust has important impacts on ocean primary productivity, the quantification of which could be useful in determining the magnitude and sign of the biogeochemical feedback on radiative forcing. However, the impact of elemental deposition to remote ocean regions is not well understood and is not currently included in global climate models. In this study, emission inventories for eight elements primarily of soil origin, Mg, P, Ca, Mn, Fe, K, Al, and Si are determined based on a global mineral data set and a soil data set. The resulting elemental fractions are used to drive the desert dust model in the Community Earth System Model (CESM) in order to simulate the elemental concentrations of atmospheric dust. Spatial variability of mineral dust elemental fractions is evident on a global scale, particularly for Ca. Simulations of global variations in the Ca / Al ratio, which typically range from around 0.1 to 5.0 in soils, are consistent with observations, suggesting that this ratio is a good signature for dust source regions. The simulated variable fractions of chemical elements are sufficiently different; estimates of deposition should include elemental variations, especially for Ca, Al and Fe. The model results have been evaluated with observations of elemental aerosol concentrations from desert regions and dust events in non-dust regions, providing insights into uncertainties in the modeling approach. The ratios between modeled and observed elemental fractions range from 0.7 to 1.6, except for Mg and Mn (3.4 and 3.5, respectively). Using the soil database improves the correspondence of the spatial heterogeneity in the modeling of several elements (Ca, Al and Fe) compared to observations. Total and soluble dust element fluxes to different ocean basins and ice sheet regions have been estimated, based on the model results. The annual inputs of soluble Mg, P, Ca, Mn, Fe and K associated with dust using the mineral data set are 0.30 Tg, 16.89 Gg, 1.32 Tg, 22.84 Gg, 0.068 Tg, and 0.15 Tg to global oceans and ice sheets.

Zhang, Y.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Representing lateral groundwater flow from land to river in Earth system models

Lateral groundwater flow (LGF) is an important hydrologic process in controlling water table dynamics. Due to the relatively coarse spatial resolutions of land surface models, the representation of this process is often overlooked or overly simplified. In this study, we developed a hillslope-based lateral groundwater flow model. Specifically, we first developed a hillslope definition model based on an existing watershed delineation model to represent the subgrid spatial variability in topography. Building upon this hillslope definition, we then developed a physical-based lateral groundwater flow using Darcy’s equation. This model explicitly considers the relationships between the groundwater table along the hillslope and the river water table levels. We coupled this intra-grid model to the land component (E3SM Land Model: ELM) and river component (MOdel for Scale Adaptive River Transport: MOSART) of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). We tested both the hillslope definition model and the lateral groundwater flow model and performed sensitivity experiments using different configurations. Simulations for a single grid cell at 0.5°×0.5° within the Amazon basin show that the definition of hillslope is the key to modeling lateral flow processes and the runoff partition between surface and subsurface can be dramatically changed using the hillslope approach. Although our method provides a pathway to improve the lateral flow process, future improvements are needed to better capture the subgrid structure to account for the spatial variability in hillslopes within the simulated grid of land surface models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2003

Earth System Dynamics: The Determination and Interpretation of the Global Angular Momentum Budget using the Earth Observing System

The objective of this investigation has been to examine the mass and momentum exchange between the atmosphere, oceans, solid Earth, hydrosphere, and cryosphere. The investigation has focused on changes in the Earth's gravity field, its rotation rate, atmospheric and oceanic circulation, global sea level change, ice sheet change, and global ground water circulation observed by contemporary sensors and models. The primary component of the mass exchange is water. The geodetic observables provided by these satellite sensors are used to study the transport of water mass in the hydrological cycle from one component of the Earth to another, and they are also used to evaluate the accuracy of models. As such, the investigation is concerned with the overall global water cycle. This report provides a description of scientific, educational and programmatic activities conducted during the period July 1, 1999 through June 30,2000. Research has continued into measurements of time-varying gravity and its relationship to Earth rotation. Variability of angular momentum and the related excitation of polar motion and Earth rotation have been examined for the atmosphere and oceans at time-scales of weeks to several years. To assess the performance of hydrologic models, we have compared geodetic signals derived from them with those observed by satellites. One key component is the interannual mass variability of the oceans obtained by direct observations from altimetry after removing steric signals. Further studies have been conducted on the steric model to quantify its accuracy at global and basin-scales. The results suggest a significant loss of water mass from the Oceans to the land on time-scales longer than 1-year. These signals are not reproduced in any of the models, which have poorly determined interannual fresh water fluxes. Output from a coupled atmosphere-ocean model testing long-term climate change hypotheses has been compared to simulated errors from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission. Results indicate that GRACE will be able to observe seasonal signals at half-wavelengths ranging from 1000 to 10000 km, and may be able to observe secular trends at half- wavelengths of greater than 2000-3000 km for soil moisture and snow depth if they are as large as some of the climate experiments predict.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS2006

Terrestrial Water Mass Load Changes from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE)

Recent studies show that data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) is promising for basin- to global-scale water cycle research. This study provides varied assessments of errors associated with GRACE water storage estimates. Thirteen monthly GRACE gravity solutions from August 2002 to December 2004 are examined, along with synthesized GRACE gravity fields for the same period that incorporate simulated errors. The synthetic GRACE fields are calculated using numerical climate models and GRACE internal error estimates. We consider the influence of measurement noise, spatial leakage error, and atmospheric and ocean dealiasing (AOD) model error as the major contributors to the error budget. Leakage error arises from the limited range of GRACE spherical harmonics not corrupted by noise. AOD model error is due to imperfect correction for atmosphere and ocean mass redistribution applied during GRACE processing. Four methods of forming water storage estimates from GRACE spherical harmonics (four different basin filters) are applied to both GRACE and synthetic data. Two basin filters use Gaussian smoothing, and the other two are dynamic basin filters which use knowledge of geographical locations where water storage variations are expected. Global maps of measurement noise, leakage error, and AOD model errors are estimated for each basin filter. Dynamic basin filters yield the smallest errors and highest signal-to-noise ratio. Within 12 selected basins, GRACE and synthetic data show similar amplitudes of water storage change. Using 53 river basins, covering most of Earth's land surface excluding Antarctica and Greenland, we document how error changes with basin size, latitude, and shape. Leakage error is most affected by basin size and latitude, and AOD model error is most dependent on basin latitude.

Seo, K.-W.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Historical and Future Extreme Event Indices for the Colorado River Basin

Extremes events are occurring more frequently and are projected to increase in the future. This data set includes extreme event indices that were generated for the Colorado River basin using data from the Variable Infiltration Capacity hydrologic model. VIC simulations were run using six CMIP5 earth system models (ESMs), two different time periods, (historical, 1970-1999) and future (2070-2099), and for one Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP 8.5). ESMs available are MPI-ESM-LR, MIROC-ESM, IPSL-CM5A-LR, GFDL-ESM2M, and GFDL-ESM2G. The different indicators include temperature (min/max, freezing days, heating days), precipitation (dry days, max), runoff (min, max), soil moisture (min, max), evapotranspiration (max), snow water equivalent (SWE, max), wind speeds (max), and pressure (min). Detailed information on the indicators, file names, and how they were calculated is included in the README.txt document. Data sets were used to calculate results are in related references Bennett et al. 2020 and Talsma et al. 2021. Details on the VIC model configuration is described in related references Bennett et al. 2018 and Bennett et al. 2017.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Xanthos Output Dataset Under ISIMIP3b Selected CMIP6 Scenarios: 1850 - 2100 (Basin and Regional Scale)

Xanthos is an open-source hydrologic model, written in Python, designed to quantify and analyze global water availability. Xanthos simulates historical and future global water availability on a monthly time step at a spatial resolution of 0.5 geographic degrees. Xanthos was designed to be extensible and used by scientists that study global water supply and work with the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM). Xanthos Output Dataset This dataset includes Xanthos outputs forced by the ISIMIP3b bias-adjusted CMIP6 climate forcing (1850 - 2100). There are 30 scenarios consists of 10 CMIP6 GCMs and 3 SSP-RCP scenarios. (1) 10 CMIP6 GCMs: GFDL-ESM4, IPSL-CM6A-LR, MPI-ESM1-2-HR, MRI-ESM2-0, UKESM1-0-LL, CanESM5, CNRM-CM6-1, CNRM-ESM2-1, EC-Earth3, and MIROC6 (2) 3 SSP-RCP Scenarios: SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 The output variables in this dataset are aggregated to basin and regional scales. (1) Monthly runoff at basin scale (2) Annual accessible renewable water at basin scale (2) Annual actual hydropower production, hydropower potential, and exploitable hydropower potential at regional scale

Climate Change↗
DOE OSTI2021

Concurrent Changes in Extreme Hydroclimate Events in the Colorado River Basin

Extreme events resulting in catastrophic damage have more than doubled in the last five years, costing hundreds of lives and thousands of homes, and heavily undermining regional economic stability. At present, most of these hydroclimatic extreme events are documented by the media as individual events; however, in scientific terms, many are better understood as concurrent events—concurrent extremes of both temperature and precipitation (e.g., drought, floods). This paper considers concurrent changes in hydroclimate extremes, including heatwaves, drought, flooding, and low flows, in six historical-to-future (1970–1999, 2070–2099) Earth System Model (ESM) climate scenarios for the Colorado River basin. Results indicate that temperature-driven Impacts (heatwaves, drought) have the strongest responses while precipitation-driven Impacts have weaker responses. All Impacts exhibit an increase in magnitude from synoptic to annual time scales, with heatwaves increasing in strength about three times at the annual time scale versus the synoptic, while low flows only increase slightly. Critical watersheds in the Colorado were identified, highlighting the Blue River basin, Uncompahgre, East Taylor, Salt/Verde watersheds, locations of important water infrastructures, water resources, and hydrological research. Our results indicate that concurrent extreme hydroclimate events are projected to increase in the future and intensify within critical regions of the Colorado River basin. Considering extreme hydroclimate events concurrently is an important step towards linking economic and social effects of these events and their associated instabilities on a regional scale.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Experimental investigation of advanced turbine control strategies and load-mitigation measures with a model-scale floating offshore wind turbine system

To advance the control co-design of offshore wind energy systems, the authors perform basin-scale experiments with a fully instrumented and actuated floating offshore wind turbine model. The model consists of a 1:70 scale performance-matched model of the International Energy Agency Wind Technology Collaboration Programme 15-MW reference turbine atop the VolturnUS-S semisubmersible platform. The Reference OpenSource Controller provides real-time blade pitch and generator torque control. Here we aim to develop an open data set for the validation of numerical models in predicting the influence of turbine control and load-mitigation measures. For this purpose, we measure the effects of advanced turbine control features, including peak shaving and floating feedback as well as hull-based control using tuned mass dampers on the system. Overall, the results demonstrate measurable and consistent influences from the control and load-mitigation measures, thus confirming the usefulness as a validation data set. Peak shaving attenuates the response to wind turbulence at near-rated wind speed. Floating feedback reduces the load and platform pitch motion associated with the negative damping induced by blade pitch control. The tuned mass dampers also attenuate the system response near the targeted frequencies under suitable conditions. We also identify detrimental side effects of each load-mitigation measure.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Unprecedented Shifts in Hydrology Are Emerging Across California's Critical Basins: An Evaluation From 0.5 to 3.5°C

With advances in climate models and downscaling techniques, stakeholders anticipate high-resolution analysis to inform regional to local changes in water management. Here, we produce hydrologic projections from an ensemble of Earth System Models (ESMs) that were selected and downscaled to support California's 5th Climate Assessment. An ensemble of 19 ESMs was downscaled to a 3-km resolution across California using a statistical-dynamical downscaling approach and subsequently run through two calibrated hydrology models. Although California has been extensively studied in the context of climate change, we provide the first evaluation of the warming thresholds at which hydroclimate metrics demonstrate statistically significant shifts. We show that present-day to near-term warming levels in Klamath and Northern Sierra Nevada basins, which serve as a critical source of water for California, show statistically significant decreases in snowfall and peak snowpack and associated decreases in summer snowmelt and runoff. More generally, shifts in these hydroclimate metrics occur for intermediate elevation basins ranging from 1,315 to 1,455 m (4,314.3–4,773.6 ft), while the warming level of emergence is delayed for lower and higher elevation basins. We also find that several basins already demonstrate significant increases in 5- to 100-year runoff intensities, primarily due to the increasing influence of precipitation falling as rain. Hydroclimate metrics with trends that demonstrate near-term warming levels of emergence are reflected in reanalysis-based observations, suggesting California is entering a fundamentally different hydroclimate regime. While this will likely stress California's water management, the research provided can support when to implement adaptation efforts.

Bass, B. [Univ. of California, Los Angeles, CA (Un↗