Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Model Inference”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 649 records · Page 36

On the distance to Galactic planetary nebulae

The distances are determined for 145 Galactic PNe using two methods. The distances for a sample of 131 PNe are determined using method A, based on the stellar mass and surface gravity. Method B, making use of the stellar luminosity, is applied to another sample of 61 PNe, of which 47 are in common with those in the sample for method A. The properties of the central star, such as the core mass, luminosity, and surface gravity, are inferred from the modeling of the distance-independent parameters. The results from the two methods used in this paper are consistent with each other. A distance of 11.3 kpc is found for K648 using method A of this work. This is in good agreement with the distance of 10 kpc of its hosting globular cluster M15.

Zhang, C. Y.↗

Stationary premixed flames in spherical and cylindrical geometries

Stationary source-free spherical flames ('flame balls') in premixed combustible gases were studied by employing low-gravity (micro-g) environments in a drop tower and an aircraft flying parabolic trajectories to diminish the impact of buoyancy-induced convective flow. Flame balls were found in all mixture families tested when: (1) the Lewis number Le of the deficient reactant was sufficiently low; and (2) the compositions were sufficiently close to the flammability limits. Probably as a consequence of the reduction in buoyant convection, the flammability limits at micro-g were significantly more dilute than those at Earth gravity; for example, 3.35% H2 vs 4.0% H2 in lean H2-air mixtures. By comparison with analytical and computational models, it is inferred that the phenomenon is probably related to diffusive-thermal effects in low-Le mixtures in conjunction with flame-front curvature and radiative heat losses from the combustion products. The chemical reaction mechanism appears to play no qualitative role. In the aircraft experiments, the gravity levels (approximately equal 10(exp -2)g(sub 0)) were found to cause noticeable motion of flame balls due to buoyancy, which in turn influenced the behavior of flame balls. At these g levels, a new type of transient, nearly cylindrical flame structure, termed 'flame strings,' was observed.

Ronney, P. D.↗

Spectral Models of Neutron Star Magnetospheres

We revisit the association of unidentified Galactic plane EGRET sources with tracers of recent massive star formation and death. Up-to-date catalogs of OB associations, SNR's, young pulsars, H2 regions and young open clusters were used in finding counterparts for a recent list of EGRET sources. It has been argued for some time that EGRET source positions are correlated with SNR's and OB associations as a class; we extend such analyses by finding additional counterparts and assessing the probability of individual source identifications. Among the several scenarios relating EGRET sources to massive stars, we focus on young neutron stars as the origin of the gamma-ray emission. The characteristics of the candidate identifications are compared to the known gamma-ray pulsar sample and to detailed Galactic population syntheses using our outer gap pulsar model of gamma-ray emission. Both the spatial distribution and luminosity function of the candidates are in good agreement with the model predictions; we infer that young pulsars can account for the bulk of the excess low latitude EGRET sources. We show that with this identification, the gamma-ray point sources provide an important new window into the history of recent massive star death in the solar neighborhood.

Romani, Roger W.↗

SIR-C/X-SAR: Imaging Radar Analyses for Forest Ecosystem Modeling

Progress, significant results and future plans are discussed relating to the following objectives: (1) Ecosystem characterization using SIR-C/X-SAR and AirSAR data; (2) Improving radar backscatter models for forest canopies; and (3) Using SAR measurements and models with forest ecosystem models to improve inferences of ecosystem attributes and processes.

Ranson, K. Jon↗

Integrated Studies of Impact-Basin Ejecta as Probes of the Lunar Crust: Imbrium and Serenitatis

The large, late, basin impacts on the Earth side of the Moon fundamentally reshaped the structure of the crust, its surface morphology, and the composition of the megaregolith and surface soils. The latest (except for Orientale on the western limb) and largest was the Imbrium impact, which produced massive ejecta deposits over much of the Procellarum region and beyond, and ejected material that mixed with surface regolith nearly Moonwide. The basins serve as natural probes into the lunar crust; therefore, understanding the nature and composition of ejecta produced by them provides information about the crust at depth. Gravity data allow modeling of the structure of the crust beneath the basins, and from such models one can infer depths of excavation and the nature of crustal response following impact.

Jolliff, Brad L.↗

Lunar Basins: New Evidence from Gravity for Impact-Formed Mascons

The prominent gravity highs (mascons) associated with uncompensated mass anomalies in lunar mare basins are a dramatic expression of the present-day rigidity of the lunar lithosphere. First discovered in Lunar Orbiter tracking data, these about 350-mGal gravity highs have been redetermined from the analysis of Clementine and historical tracking. These highs coincide with topographic lows, indicating nonisostatic support. One of the rediscoveries of this analysis is the encirclement of the highs by substantial negative anomalies over topographic highs. Recent gravity fields are providing the increased resolution necessary to determine the causes of this unique mascon signature. The compensation of the basin anomalies remains controversial. The mascon highs have long been interpreted as the result of mare loading, subsequent to the decay of residual stresses resulting from the impact. Substantially more mare fill is required to produce mascon highs than has been inferred on geological grounds, and the amount of near-surface mass deficit required to produce a gravity most exceeds bounds inferred from terrestrial examples. This problem is most acute for the youngest basin, Orientale. Recent gravity fields from Lunar Prospector have suggested mascon highs associated with nonmare basins such as Mendel-Rydberg, or minimally filled basins like Humboldtianum, further calling this explanation into question. We suggest that the mascon gravity signal is produced by a combination of crustal thickness changes, manifested by central mantle uplift, outward displacement of crust, and downward flexure of the lithosphere under mare loading. The mantle uplift is superisostatic, maintained by residual stresses resulting from the process of impact cratering and modification. In particular, the process of crater collapse and mantle rebound terminates abruptly, leaving the mantle plug in a non-equilibrium state, surrounded by a ring of thickened crust. Viscous relaxation over geological timescales has erased some but not all of the signature of the impact process. Mantle uplift inferred from gravity modeling is inversely correlated with age. While the oldest basins such as South Pole Aitken are mainly compensated isotatically, the younger basins appear to have been in a state of superisostatic loading prior to mare emplacement. If this is true, this places an important constraint on the impact process at basin scales. The idea that rebound of the transient crater via acoustic fluidization may freeze substantial stresses imcomplete to this day, may be tested by examining the gravity signatures of major basins on terrestrial bodies. The moon provides the clearest resolved examples to date, but uncertainty in gravity knowledge remains problematic.

Neumann, Gregory A.↗

Validity of the Temperature Reconstruction from Water Isotopes in Ice Cores

Well-documented present-day distributions of stable water isotopes (HDO and others) show the existence, in middle and high latitudes, of a linear relationship between the mean annual isotope content of precipitation (SD and 51"0) and the mean annual temperature at the precipitation site. Paleoclimatologists have used this relationship, which is particularly well obeyed over Greenland and Antarctica, to infer paleotemperatures from ice core data. There is, however, growing evidence that spatial and temporal isotope/ surface temperature slopes differ, thus complicating the use of stable water isotopes as paleothermometers. In this paper we review empirical estimates of temporal slopes in polar regions and relevant information that can be inferred from isotope models: simple, Rayleigh-type distillation models and (particularly over Greenland) general circulation models (GCMS) fitted with isotope tracer diagnostics. Empirical estimates of temporal slopes appear consistently lower than present-day spatial slopes and are dependent on the timescale considered. This difference is most probably due to changes in the evaporative origins of moisture, changes in the seasonality of the precipitation, changes in the strength of the inversion layer, or some combination of these changes. Isotope models have not yet been used to evaluate the relative influences of these different factors. The apparent disagreement in the temporal and spatial slopes clearly makes calibrating the isotope paleothermometer difficult. Nevertheless, the use of a (calibrated) isotope paleothermometer appears justified; empirical estimates and most (though not all) GCM results support the practice of interpreting ice core isotope records in terms of local temperature changes.

Jouzel, J.↗

Dynamics of Vapour Bubbles in Nucleate Boiling: Evolution of Thermally Controlled Bubbles - 2

The previously developed dynamic theory of growth and detachment of vapour bubbles under conditions of nucleate pool boiling is applied to study motion and deformation of a bubble evolving at a single nucleation site. The bubble growth is presumed to be thermally controlled, and two components of heat transfer to the bubble are accounted of: the one from the bulk of surrounding liquid and the one due to heat conduction across a liquid microlayer formed underneath the bubble. Bubble evolution is governed by the buoyancy and an effective surface tension force, both the forces making the bubble centre of mass move away from the wall and, thus, assisting its detachment. Buoyancy-controlled and surface-tension-controlled regimes are considered separately in a meticulous way. The duration of the whole process of bubble evolution till detachment, the rate of growth, and the bubble departure size are found as functions of time and physical and operating parameters. Some repeatedly observed phenomena, such as an influence of gravity on the growth rate, are explained. Inferences of the model agree qualitatively with available experimental evidence, and conclusions pertaining to the dependence on gravity of the bubble radius at detachment and the whole time of the bubble development when being attached to the wall are confirmed quantitatively.

Buyevich, Yu A.↗

Detection of Pulsed X-Ray Emission from XMM-Newton Observations of PSR J0538+2817

We report on the XMM-Newton observations of the 143 ms pulsar PSR J0538+2817. We present evidence for the first detections of pulsed X-rays from the source at a frequency that is consistent with the predicted radio frequency. The pulse profile is broad and asymmetric, with a pulse fraction of 18% +/- 3%. We find that the spectrum of the source is well-fitted with a blackbody with T(sup infinity) = (2.12 (sup +0.04) (sub -0.03)) x 10(exp 6) K and N(sub H) = 2.5 x 10(exp 2)/sq cm. The radius determined from the model fit of 1.68 +/- 0.05 km suggests that the emission is from a heated polar cap. A fit to the spectra with an atmospheric model reduces the inferred temperature and, hence, increases the radius of the emitting region; however, the pulsar distance determined from the fit is then smaller than the dispersion distance.

McGowan, K. E.↗

Transient Plume Model Testing Using LADEE Spacecraft Attitude Control System Operations

The Lunar Atmosphere Dust Environment Explorer (LADEE) spacecraft is being designed for a mission featuring low altitude orbits of the Moon to take relevant ambient measurements before that environment becomes altered by future exploration activities. Instruments include a neutral mass spectrometer capable of measuring ambient species density levels below 100 molecules/cu cm. Coincidentally, with a favorable combination of spacecraft orientations, it is also possible to measure plume gases from LADEE attitude control system thruster operations as they are reflected from the daytime lunar surface and subsequently intercepted by the spacecraft as it orbits overhead. Under such circumstances, it may be possible to test a variety of properties and assumptions associated with various transient plume models or to infer certain aspects regarding lunar surface properties.

Woronowicz, M. S.↗

Enceladus: An Active Cryovolcanic Satellite

Enceladus is one of the most remarkable satellites in the solar system, as revealed by Cassini's detection of active plumes erupting from warm fractures near its south pole. This discovery makes Enceladus the only icy satellite known to exhibit ongoing internally driven geological activity. The activity is presumably powered by tidal heating maintained by Enceladus 2:1 mean-motion resonance with Dione, but many questions remain. For instance, it appears difficult or impossible to maintain the currently observed radiated power (probably at least 6 GW) in steady state. It is also not clear how Enceladus first entered its current self-maintaining warm and dissipative state initial heating from non-tidal sources is probably required. There are also many unanswered questions about Enceladus interior. The silicate fraction inferred from its density of 1.68 g per cubic centimeter is probably differentiated into a core, though we have only indirect evidence for differentiation. Above the core there is probably a global or regional water layer, inferred from several models of tidal heating, and an ice shell thick enough to support the ~1 kilometer amplitude topography seen on Enceladus. It is possible that dissipation is largely localized beneath the south polar region. Enceladus surface geology, ranging from moderately cratered terrain to the virtually crater-free active south polar region, is highly diverse, tectonically complex, and remarkably symmetrical about the rotation axis and the direction to Saturn. South polar activity is concentrated along the four tiger stripe fractures, which radiate heat at temperatures up to at least 167 K and are the source of multiple plumes ejecting ~200 kilograms per second of H2O vapor along with significant N2 (or C2H4), CO2, CH4, NH3, and higher-mass hydrocarbons. The escaping gas maintains Saturn's neutral gas torus, and the plumes also eject a large number of micron-sized H2O ice grains that populate Saturn's E-ring. The mechanism that powers the plumes is not well understood, and whether liquid water is involved is a subject of active debate (but likely nonetheless). Enceladus provides a promising potential habitat for life in the outer solar system, and the active plumes allow the unique opportunity for direct sampling of that zone. Enceladus is thus a prime target for Cassini's continued exploration of the Saturn system, and will be a tempting target for future missions.

Spencer, J. R.↗

An Icy Kuiper-Belt Around the Young Solar-Type Star HD 181327

HD 181327 is a young Main Sequence F5/F6 V star belonging to the Beta Pictoris moving group (age approx 12 Myr). It harbors an optically thin belt of circumstellar material at approx90 AU, presumed to result from collisions in a populat.ion of unseen planetesimals. Aims. We aim to study the dust properties in the belt in great details, and to constrain the gas-to-dust ratio. Methods. We obtained far-IR photometric observations of HD 181327 with the PACS instrument onboard the Herschel Space Observatory, complemented by new 3.2 nun observations carried with the ATCA array. The geometry of the belt is constrained with newly reduced HST /NICMOS scattered light images that break the degeneracy between the disk geometry and the dust properties. We then use the radiative transfer code GRaTer to compute a large grid of dust models, and we apply a Bayesian inference method to identify the grain models that best reproduce the SED. We attempt to detect the oxygen and ionized carbon fine-structure lines with Herschel/PACS spectroscopy, providing observables to our photochemical code ProDiMo. Results. The HST observations confirm that the dust is confined in a narrow belt. The continuum is detected with Herschel/PACS completing nicely the SED in the far-infrared. The disk is marginally resolved with both PACS and ATCA. A medium integration of the gas spectral lines only provides upper limits on the [OI] and [CII] line fluxes. We show that the HD 181327 dust disk consists of micron-sized grains of porous amorphous silicates and carbonaceous material surrounded by an import.ant layer of ice for a total dust mass of approx 0.05 stellar Mass. We discuss evidences that the grains consists of fluffy aggregates. The upper limits on the gas atomic lines do not provide unambiguous constraints: only if the PAH abundance is high, the gas mass must be lower than approx 17 Stellar Mass Conclusions. Despite the weak constraints on the gas disk, the age of HD 181327 and the properties of the dust disk suggest that it has passed the stage of gaseous planets formation. The dust reveals a population of icy planetesimals, similar to the primitive Edgeworth-Kuiper Belt, that may be a source for the future delivery of water and volatiles onto forming terrestrial planets.

Lebreton, J.↗

Variability of Basal Melt Beneath the Pine Island Glacier Ice Shelf, West Antarctica

Observations from satellite and airborne platforms are combined with model calculations to infer the nature and efficiency of basal melting of the Pine Island Glacier ice shelf, West Antarctica, by ocean waters. Satellite imagery shows surface features that suggest ice-shelf-wide changes to the ocean s influence on the ice shelf as the grounding line retreated. Longitudinal profiles of ice surface and bottom elevations are analyzed to reveal a spatially dependent pattern of basal melt with an annual melt flux of 40.5 Gt/a. One profile captures a persistent set of surface waves that correlates with quasi-annual variations of atmospheric forcing of Amundsen Sea circulation patterns, establishing a direct connection between atmospheric variability and sub-ice-shelf melting. Ice surface troughs are hydrostatically compensated by ice-bottom voids up to 150m deep. Voids form dynamically at the grounding line, triggered by enhanced melting when warmer-than-average water arrives. Subsequent enlargement of the voids is thermally inefficient (4% or less) compared with an overall melting efficiency beneath the ice shelf of 22%. Residual warm water is believed to cause three persistent polynyas at the ice-shelf front seen in Landsat imagery. Landsat thermal imagery confirms the occurrence of warm water at the same locations.

Bindschadler, Robert↗

Earth Science Data Analysis in the Era of Big Data

Anyone with even a cursory interest in information technology cannot help but recognize that "Big Data" is one of the most fashionable catchphrases of late. From accurate voice and facial recognition, language translation, and airfare prediction and comparison, to monitoring the real-time spread of flu, Big Data techniques have been applied to many seemingly intractable problems with spectacular successes. They appear to be a rewarding way to approach many currently unsolved problems. Few fields of research can claim a longer history with problems involving voluminous data than Earth science. The problems we are facing today with our Earth's future are more complex and carry potentially graver consequences than the examples given above. How has our climate changed? Beside natural variations, what is causing these changes? What are the processes involved and through what mechanisms are these connected? How will they impact life as we know it? In attempts to answer these questions, we have resorted to observations and numerical simulations with ever-finer resolutions, which continue to feed the "data deluge." Plausibly, many Earth scientists are wondering: How will Big Data technologies benefit Earth science research? As an example from the global water cycle, one subdomain among many in Earth science, how would these technologies accelerate the analysis of decades of global precipitation to ascertain the changes in its characteristics, to validate these changes in predictive climate models, and to infer the implications of these changes to ecosystems, economies, and public health? Earth science researchers need a viable way to harness the power of Big Data technologies to analyze large volumes and varieties of data with velocity and veracity. Beyond providing speedy data analysis capabilities, Big Data technologies can also play a crucial, albeit indirect, role in boosting scientific productivity by facilitating effective collaboration within an analysis environment. To illustrate the effects of combining a Big Data technology with an effective means of collaboration, we relate the (fictitious) experience of an early-career Earth science researcher a few years beyond the present, interlaced and contrasted with reminiscences of its recent past (i.e., the present).

Kuo, K.-S.↗

Spatiotemporal Coherence of Mean and Extreme Aerosol Particle Events over Eastern North America as Observed from Satellite

Quantifying spatiotemporal scales of coherence and variability of aerosol particle properties provides (i) metrics for evaluating observational data sets and model simulations, (ii) inferences regarding dominant causes of variability, and (iii) information that is necessary to determine their climate forcing and air quality impacts. Accordingly, analyses of columnar aerosol optical depth (AOD) and Ångstrom exponent (AE) from the MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on the Aqua and Terra satellites, and AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) stations are used to evaluate the spatially averaged (Level-3) MODIS products, and to characterize the spatiotemporal scales of variability (and coherence) of aerosol particles over eastern North America (2000-2013). Results show a high degree of consistency in AOD retrievals from the different data sets but larger discrepancies in AE estimates, highest mean AOD and lowest day-to-day variability during the summer, and largest scales of spatial coherence in summer and fall. Consistent with the scales of spatial coherence from MODIS data, in both data sets power spectra indicate AOD variability is manifest primarily on synoptic and annual time scales. Conversely, AE variability in MODIS data is primarily focused on seasonal, semiannual, and annual time scales, and there is an additional mode of AE variability at approx. 30 days in the AERONET measurements. The frequency of cooccurrence of extreme AOD values (>local 90th percentile) decreases to below 50% at approx. 150 km from a central grid cell, but is above that expected by random chance over almost all of eastern North America, indicating supra-regional scale extreme events.

MODIS↗

Prediction of Tensile Strength of Friction Stir Weld Joints with Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) and Neural Network

Friction-stir-welding (FSW) is a solid-state joining process where joint properties are dependent on welding process parameters. In the current study three critical process parameters including spindle speed (𝑁), plunge force (𝐹𝑧), and welding speed (𝑉) are considered key factors in the determination of ultimate tensile strength (UTS) of welded aluminum alloy joints. A total of 73 weld schedules were welded and tensile properties were subsequently obtained experimentally. It is observed that all three process parameters have direct influence on UTS of the welded joints. Utilizing experimental data, an optimized adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) model has been developed to predict UTS of FSW joints. A total of 1200 models were developed by varying the number of membership functions (MFs), type of MFs, and combination of four input variables (𝑁,𝑉,𝐹𝑧,𝐸𝐹𝐼) utilizing a MATLAB platform. Note EFI denotes an empirical force index derived from the three process parameters. For comparison, optimized artificial neural network (ANN) models were also developed to predict UTS from FSW process parameters. By comparing ANFIS and ANN predicted results, it was found that optimized ANFIS models provide better results than ANN. This newly developed best ANFIS model could be utilized for prediction of UTS of FSW joints.

Mohammad W Dewan↗

Uncertainty Quantification for JPL Retrievals

We define the notions of verification, validation, and uncertainty quantification (VVUQ), and place them in the context of retrievals of Earth science data. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is the process of characterizing the uncertainty of a measurement system relative to the true, physical quantity it measures. UQ is needed when measurements are used for scientific inference, assimilated into models with other data, and used for decision-making and risk analysis. Many measurements come with measures of standard error and bias, but these uncertainty measures are often inaccurate, due to the operational need to assume crisp values for parameters which are in fact uncertain, as well as the failure of technical assumptions needed by operational error-estimation approaches. UQ provides a way to study which assumptions fail to hold, and a tool to improve the measurement. We describe a particular, broadly-applicable UQ setup that has been successful for JPL retrievals including OCO-2, and provide recommendations for furthering the UQ state of the practice at JPL.

Turmon, Michael↗

NASA SEXTANT Mission Operations Architecture

The Station Explorer for X-Ray Timing and Navigation (SEXTANT) mission is a technology demonstration enhancement to the Neutron Star Interior Composition Explorer (NICER) mission, a NASA Astrophysics Explorer Mission of Opportunity to the International Space Station (ISS) that was launched in June of 2017. The NICER instrument is a precision pointing X-ray telescope that times pulsar sourced photon arrivals which the SEXTANT mission uses to perform autonomous onboard X-ray Pulsar Navigation (XNAV). By comparing the detected time of arrival of X-ray photons to a reference of expected pulsar timing models, one can infer a range and range rate measurement based on light time delay. Since both timing and orientation information comes from a celestial source, this technology could provide a GPS-like navigation capability available throughout our Solar System and beyond. Applications that XNAV can support include outer planet and interstellar missions, manned missions, libration orbit missions, and current infrastructure such as the Deep Space Network (DSN). The SEXTANT team successfully completed a first demonstration of in-space and autonomous XNAV in November 2017. NICER and SEXTANT have separate teams, with NICER being the primary team with its own science objectives. Operational modes for both missions must have concurrent and independent components as well as an integrated ground system. This paper describes on the operational infrastructure and successful operations for performing X-ray Pulsar Navigation with the Station Explorer for X-ray Timing and Navigation Technology (SEXTANT) demonstration. This paper first details the infrastructure implemented, then the concept of operations, and finally the operations for the SEXTANT demonstration and lessons learned.

Ground Systems↗