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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS2005

Studies of Particle Acceleration, Transport and Radiation in Impulsive Phase of Solar Flares

Solar activity and its most prominent aspect, the solar flares, have considerable influence on terrestrial and space weather. Solar flares also provide a suitable laboratory for the investigation of many plasma and high energy processes important in the magnetosphere of the Earth and many other space and astrophysical situations. Hence, progress in understanding of flares will have considerable scientific and societal impact. The primary goal of this grant is the understanding of two of the most important problems of solar flare physics, namely the determination of the energy release mechanism and how this energy accelerates particles. This is done through comparison of the observations with theoretical models, starting from observations and gradually proceeding to theoretically more complex situations as the lower foundations of our understanding are secured. It is generally agreed that the source of the flare energy is the annihilation of magnetic fields by the reconnection process. Exactly how this energy is released or how it is dissipated remains controversial. Moreover, the exact mechanism of the acceleration of the particles is still a matter of debate. Data from many spacecrafts and ground based instruments obtained over the past decades have given us some clues. Theoretical analyses of these data have led to the standard thick target model (STT) where most of the released energy goes into an (assumed) power law spectrum of accelerated particles, and where all the observed radiations are the consequence of the interaction of these particles with the flare plasma. However, some theoretical arguments, and more importantly some new observations, have led us to believe that the above picture is not complete. It appears that plasma turbulence plays a more prominent role than suspected previously, and that it is the most likely agent for accelerating particles. The model we have developed is based on production of a high level of plasma waves and turbulence in the reconnection region above a flare loop. This turbulence accelerates particles stochastically which radiate some of their energy in this region but carry most of their energy to the footpoints of the loop, where they lose all their energy and radiate bulk of the observed radiation as in the traditional thick target model. In the past we have worked on various aspects of this model. We have evaluated the interaction rates of the plasma waves with electrons and ions, developed theoretical frameworks for the acceleration, transport and radiative processes, and produced numerical codes for the investigation of these processes. The goal of this grant has been further development and testing of this new paradigm, with emphases on the relative acceleration of electrons and ions and on a comprehensive investigation of the turbulence generation, cascade, and damping processes. We review several pieces of important evidence that we have uncovered indicating the crucial roles of turbulence, in and we describe accomplishments during the past two years of this grant.

Petrosian, Vahe↗
NASA NTRS2008

A New Handbook for the Development of Space Vehicle Terrestrial Environment Design Requirements.

A new NASA document entitled "Terrestrial Environment (Climatic) Criteria Handbook for Use in Aerospace Vehicle Development (NASA-HDBK-1001A) has been developed. The Handbook provides terrestrial environment information, data bases, models, recommendations, etc. for use in the design, development, trade studies, testing, and mission analyses for space (or launch) .vehicles. This document is organized into fourteen specific natural environment disciplines of which some are winds, atmospheric models, thermal radiation, precipitation-for-icing, cloud cover, atmospheric electricity, geologic hazards, toxic chemical release by propulsion systems, and sea state. Atmospheric phenomena play a significant role in the design and flight of aerospace vehicles and in the integrity of the associated aerospace systems and structures. Environmental design criteria guidelines in this document are based on measurements and observations of atmospheric and climatic phenomena relative to various aerospace development, operational, and vehicle launch locations. The natural environment criteria guidelines data presented in this Handbook were formulated based on discussions with and requests from engineers involved in aerospace vehicle development and operations. Therefore, they represent responses to actual engineering problems and are not just a general compilation of environmental data. The Handbook addresses the basis for the information presented, the interpretations of the terrestrial environment guideline given in the Handbook, and its application to the development of aerospace vehicle design requirements. Specific examples of the Handbook content and associated "lessons lenmed" are given in this paper.

Johnson, Dale L.↗
NASA NTRS2008

A New Handbook for the Development of Space Vehicle Terrestrial Environment Design Requirements

A new NASA document entitled "Terrestrial Environment (Climatic) Criteria Handbook for Use in Aerospace Vehicle Development (NASA-HDBK-IOO1A) has been developed. The Handbook provides terrestrial environment information, data bases, models, recommendations, etc. for use in the design, development, trade studies, testing, and mission analyses for space (or launch) vehicles. This document is organized into fourteen specific natural environment disciplines of which some are winds, atmospheric models, thermal radiation, precipitation-for-icing, cloud cover, atmospheric electricity, geologic hazards, toxic chemical release by propulsion systems, and sea state. Atmospheric phenomena play a significant role in the design and flight of aerospace vehicles and in the integrity of the associated aerospace systems and structures. Environmental design criteria guidelines in this document are based on measurements and observations of atmospheric and climatic phenomena relative to various aerospace development, operational, and vehicle launch locations. The natural environment criteria guidelines data presented in this Handbook were formulated based on discussions with and requests from engineers involved in aerospace vehicle development and operations. Therefore, they represent responses to actual engineering problems and are not just a general compilation of environmental data. The Handbook addresses the basis for the information presented, the interpretations of the terrestrial environment guideline given in the Handbook, and its application to the development of aerospace vehicle design requirements. Specific examples of the Handbook content and associated "lessons lenmed" are given in this paper.

Johnson, Dale L.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Modeling the Prodromal Effects and Performance Reduction of Astronauts from Exposure to Large Solar Particle Events

In space exploration outside the Earth's geomagnetic field, radiation exposure from solar particle events (SPE) presents a health concern for astronauts, that could impair their performance and result in possibility of failure of the mission. Acute risks are especially of concern during spacewalks on the lunar surface because of the rapid onset of SPE's and science goals that involve long distances to crew habitats. Thus assessing the potential of early radiation effect under such adverse conditions is of prime importance. Here we present a biologic based mathematical model which describes the dose and time-dependent early human responses to ionizing radiation. We examine the possible early effects on crew behind various shielding materials from exposure to some historical large SPEs on the lunar and Mars surfaces. The doses and dose rates were calculated using the BRYNTRN code (Kim, M.Y, Hu, X, and Cucinotta, F.A, Effect of Shielding Materials from SPEs on the Lunar and Mars Surface, AIAA Space 2005, paper number AIAA-2005-6653, Long Beach, CA, August 30-September 1, 2005) and the hazard of the early radiation effects and performance reduction were calculated using the RIPD code (Anno, G.H, McClellan, G.E., Dore, M.A, Protracted Radiation-Induced Performance Decrement, Volume 1 Model Development,1996, Defense Nuclear Agency: Alexandria VA). Based on model assumptions we show that exposure to these historical SPEs do cause early effects to crew members and impair their performance if effective shielding and medical countermeasure tactics are not provided. The calculations show multiple occurrence of large SPEs in a short period of time significantly increase the severity of early illness, however early death from failure of the hematopoietic system is very unlikely because of the dose-rate and dose heterogeneity of SPEs. Results from these types of calculations will be a guide in design of protection systems and medical response strategy for astronauts in case of exposure to high dose irradiation during future space missions.

Hu, S.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Response of Silicon-Based Linear Energy Transfer Spectrometers: Implication for Radiation Risk Assessment in Space Flights

There is considerable interest in developing silicon-based telescopes because of their compactness and low power requirements. Three such telescopes have been flown on board the Space Shuttle to measure the linear energy transfer spectra of trapped, galactic cosmic ray, and solar energetic particles. Dosimeters based on single silicon detectors have also been flown on the Mir orbital station. A comparison of the absorbed dose and radiation quality factors calculated from these telescopes with that estimated from measurements made with a tissue equivalent proportional counter show differences which need to be fully understood if these telescopes are to be used for astronaut radiation risk assessments. Instrument performance is complicated by a variety of factors. A Monte Carlo-based technique was developed to model the behavior of both single element detectors in a proton beam, and the performance of a two-element, wide-angle telescope, in the trapped belt proton field inside the Space Shuttle. The technique is based on: (1) radiation transport intranuclear-evaporation model that takes into account the charge and angular distribution of target fragments, (2) Landau-Vavilov distribution of energy deposition allowing for electron escape, (3) true detector geometry of the telescope, (4) coincidence and discriminator settings, (5) spacecraft shielding geometry, and (6) the external space radiation environment, including albedo protons. The value of such detailed modeling and its implications in astronaut risk assessment is addressed. c2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

manned↗
NASA NTRS2011

Model-Based Diagnostics for Propellant Loading Systems

The loading of spacecraft propellants is a complex, risky operation. Therefore, diagnostic solutions are necessary to quickly identify when a fault occurs, so that recovery actions can be taken or an abort procedure can be initiated. Model-based diagnosis solutions, established using an in-depth analysis and understanding of the underlying physical processes, offer the advanced capability to quickly detect and isolate faults, identify their severity, and predict their effects on system performance. We develop a physics-based model of a cryogenic propellant loading system, which describes the complex dynamics of liquid hydrogen filling from a storage tank to an external vehicle tank, as well as the influence of different faults on this process. The model takes into account the main physical processes such as highly nonequilibrium condensation and evaporation of the hydrogen vapor, pressurization, and also the dynamics of liquid hydrogen and vapor flows inside the system in the presence of helium gas. Since the model incorporates multiple faults in the system, it provides a suitable framework for model-based diagnostics and prognostics algorithms. Using this model, we analyze the effects of faults on the system, derive symbolic fault signatures for the purposes of fault isolation, and perform fault identification using a particle filter approach. We demonstrate the detection, isolation, and identification of a number of faults using simulation-based experiments.

Daigle, Matthew John↗
DOE OSTI2026

Dark Energy Survey Year 3 results: Simulation-based 𝑤CDM inference from weak lensing and galaxy clustering maps with deep learning: Analysis design

Data-driven approaches using deep learning are emerging as powerful techniques to extract non-Gaussian information from cosmological large-scale structure. Here, this work presents the first simulation-based inference (SBI) pipeline that combines weak lensing and galaxy clustering maps in a realistic Dark Energy Survey Year 3 (DES Y3) configuration and serves as preparation for a forthcoming analysis of the survey data. We develop a scalable forward model based on the CosmoGridV1 suite of N-body simulations to generate over one million self-consistent mock realizations of DES Y3 at the map level. Leveraging this large dataset, we train deep graph convolutional neural networks on the full survey footprint in spherical geometry to learn low-dimensional features that approximately maximize mutual information with target parameters. These learned compressions enable neural density estimation of the implicit likelihood via normalizing flows in a ten-dimensional parameter space spanning cosmological 𝑤CDM, intrinsic alignment, and linear galaxy bias parameters, while marginalizing over baryonic, photometric redshift, and shear bias nuisances. To ensure robustness, we extensively validate our inference pipeline using synthetic observations derived from both systematic contaminations in our forward model and independent Buzzard galaxy catalogs. Our forecasts yield significant improvements in cosmological parameter constraints, achieving 2−3× higher figures of merit in the 𝛺 𝑚 − 𝑆 8 plane relative to our implementation of baseline two-point statistics and effectively breaking parameter degeneracies through probe combination. These results demonstrate the potential of SBI analyses powered by deep learning for upcoming Stage-IV wide-field imaging surveys.

Thomsen, A. [Zurich, ETH] (ORCID:0000000203099021)↗
NASA NTRS1986

Mechanisms of crustal deformation in the western US

The deformation processes in the western United States were studied, considering both deterministic models and random or statistical models. The role of the intracrustal delamination and mechanisms of crustal thinning were also examined. The application of fractal techniques to understand how the crust is deforming was studied in complex regions. Work continued on the development of a fractal based model for deformation in the western United States. Fractal studies were also extended to the study of topography and the geoid.

Turcotte, Donald L.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Molecular-Based Optical Measurement Techniques for Transition and Turbulence in High-Speed Flow

High-speed laminar-to-turbulent transition and turbulence affect the control of flight vehicles, the heat transfer rate to a flight vehicle's surface, the material selected to protect such vehicles from high heating loads, the ultimate weight of a flight vehicle due to the presence of thermal protection systems, the efficiency of fuel-air mixing processes in high-speed combustion applications, etc. Gaining a fundamental understanding of the physical mechanisms involved in the transition process will lead to the development of predictive capabilities that can identify transition location and its impact on parameters like surface heating. Currently, there is no general theory that can completely describe the transition-to-turbulence process. However, transition research has led to the identification of the predominant pathways by which this process occurs. For a truly physics-based model of transition to be developed, the individual stages in the paths leading to the onset of fully turbulent flow must be well understood. This requires that each pathway be computationally modeled and experimentally characterized and validated. This may also lead to the discovery of new physical pathways. This document is intended to describe molecular based measurement techniques that have been developed, addressing the needs of the high-speed transition-to-turbulence and high-speed turbulence research fields. In particular, we focus on techniques that have either been used to study high speed transition and turbulence or techniques that show promise for studying these flows. This review is not exhaustive. In addition to the probe-based techniques described in the previous paragraph, several other classes of measurement techniques that are, or could be, used to study high speed transition and turbulence are excluded from this manuscript. For example, surface measurement techniques such as pressure and temperature paint, phosphor thermography, skin friction measurements and photogrammetry (for model attitude and deformation measurement) are excluded to limit the scope of this report. Other physical probes such as heat flux gauges, total temperature probes are also excluded. We further exclude measurement techniques that require particle seeding though particle based methods may still be useful in many high speed flow applications. This manuscript details some of the more widely used molecular-based measurement techniques for studying transition and turbulence: laser-induced fluorescence (LIF), Rayleigh and Raman Scattering and coherent anti-Stokes Raman scattering (CARS). These techniques are emphasized, in part, because of the prior experience of the authors. Additional molecular based techniques are described, albeit in less detail. Where possible, an effort is made to compare the relative advantages and disadvantages of the various measurement techniques, although these comparisons can be subjective views of the authors. Finally, the manuscript concludes by evaluating the different measurement techniques in view of the precision requirements described in this chapter. Additional requirements and considerations are discussed to assist with choosing an optical measurement technique for a given application.

Bathel, Brett F.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Spacecraft Internal Acoustic Environment Modeling

The objective of the project is to develop an acoustic modeling capability, based on commercial off-the-shelf software, to be used as a tool for oversight of the future manned Constellation vehicles. The use of such a model will help ensure compliance with acoustic requirements. Also, this project includes modeling validation and development feedback via building physical mockups and conducting acoustic measurements to compare with the predictions.

Chu, S. Reynold↗
NASA NTRS1992

Multimegawatt dynamic NEP PMAD study

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration Lewis Research Center (NASA LeRC) is developing a FORTRAN-based model of a complete nuclear electric propulsion (NEP) vehicle to be used for piloted or cargo missions to the Moon or Mars. The proposed vehicle will use either a Brayton or K-Rankine power conversion cycle, and either ion or magnetoplasmadynamic (MPD) thrusters. In support of this effort, Rocketdyne evaluated various power management and distribution (PMAD) approaches and selected a low-frequency design that is based on the direct use of the alternator voltage and frequency for power transmission. This approach was compared with dc and high-frequency ac designs, and selected on the basis of mass, efficiency, and qualitative assessment of power quality, reliability and development costs. This low-frequency architecture will be used as the reference in future NEP PMAD studies and for the subsequent FORTRAN model development.

Metcalf, Kenneth J.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Multi Targeted Dietary Supplement as a Potential Countermeasure for Prolonged, Deep Space Exploration

Deep space exploration, particularly to the Moon and Mars, are currently major goals of NASA and other international space agencies. Long-term space flight presents unique challenges to the human physiology from microgravity, social isolation, altered circadian rhythm and radiation. Oxidative stress has been implicated as a crucial factor in space environment induced injury. Elucidating these detrimental effects on the central nervous system and brain is a primary objective, as they may result in adverse changes in astronaut behavior, mood and performance of critical tasks. We were recently funded by HRP Human Factors Behavioral Performance (HFBP) Element to test the hypothesis that Galactic Cosmic Ray Simulation (GCRsim) Ionizing Radiation (IR), microgravity and social isolation combine synergistically to trigger an oxidative stress response that alters immune homeostasis, brain structure and function, and neurobehavioral and cognitive performance. This project will identify potential biomarkers for, and mechanisms underlying, structural and functional changes in the immune and nervous systems leading to behavioral/cognitive performance deficits, and its potential application to develop effective countermeasures to mitigate negative health effects of long duration space habitation. Countermeasures to offset neurological damaged and cognitive deficits are paramount for protecting astronauts during deep space transits, but many countermeasures have been found to be unsuitable in ground-based model studies. We have developed a multi targeted dietary supplement (MTDS) designed to simultaneously ameliorate oxidative stress, inflammatory processes, energetic shortfalls, and membrane and mitochondrial deterioration. Administration of this MTDS has improved cognition and longevity in age accelerated and normal aging mice. Specifically, the MTDS was found to prevent a decline in mitochondrial complex III activity and cell loss, as well as prevent an increase in protein carbonyls and mitochondrial 3-nitrotyrosine in the brain of these mice. Further, administration of the MTDS was also found to reduce bone marrow chromosomal aberrations, DNA damage, lymphocyte apoptosis after whole body exposure of 2 Gy γ radiation. Mice exposed to a high dose cranially (10 Gy) had decreased cognitive responses (seen as increased latency time to uncover buried food and decreased novel object recognition), increased plasma 8-OHdG levels, increased markers of cell stress in the brain, decreased hippocampal brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) protein and decreased plasma levels of cytokines, all of which were ameliorated with treatment of the MTDS. As we have shown the supplement is protective in models of cognitive damage similar space environment stressors, particularly increased oxidative stress, we propose it may be a suitable countermeasure for upcoming deep space exploration.

radiation↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A MULTI TARGETED DIETARY SUPPLEMENT AS A POTENTIAL COUNTERMEASURE FOR DEEP SPACE EXPLORATION

Future deep space exploration to the Moon and Mars and beyond are currently major goals of NASA. Space flight presents unique challenges to the human physiology from the combined effects of microgravity, social isolation, altered circadian rhythm and radiation. Oxidative stress has been implicated as a crucial factor in space environment induced injury. Elucidating these detrimental effects on the central nervous system and brain is a primary objective, as they may result in adverse changes in astronaut behavior, mood and performance of critical tasks. We were recently funded by HRP Human Factors Behavioral Performance (HFBP) Element to test the hypothesis that Galactic Cosmic Ray Simulation (GCRsim) Ionizing Radiation (IR), microgravity and social isolation combine synergistically to trigger an oxidative stress response that alters immune homeostasis, brain structure and function, and neurobehavioral and cognitive performance. This project will identify potential biomarkers for, and mechanisms underlying, structural and functional changes in the immune and nervous systems leading to behavioral/cognitive performance deficits, and its potential application to develop effective countermeasures to mitigate negative health effects of long duration space habitation. Countermeasures to offset neurological damaged and cognitive deficits are paramount for protecting astronauts during deep space transits, but many countermeasures have been found to be unsuitable in ground-based model studies. We have developed a multi targeted dietary supplement (MTDS) designed to simultaneously ameliorate oxidative stress, inflammatory processes, energetic shortfalls, and membrane and mitochondrial deterioration. Administration of this MTDS has improved cognition and longevity in age accelerated and normal aging mice. Specifically, the MTDS was found to prevent a decline in mitochondrial complex III activity and cell loss, as well as prevent an increase in protein carbonyls and mitochondrial 3-nitrotyrosine in the brain of these mice. Further, administration of the MTDS was also found to reduce bone marrow chromosomal aberrations, DNA damage, lymphocyte apoptosis after whole body exposure of 2 Gy γ radiation. Mice exposed to a high dose cranially (10 Gy) had decreased cognitive responses (seen as increased latency time to uncover buried food and decreased novel object recognition), increased plasma 8-OHdG levels, increased markers of cell stress in the brain, decreased hippocampal brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) protein and decreased plasma levels of cytokines, all of which were ameliorated with treatment of the MTDS. As we have shown the supplement is protective in models of cognitive damage similar space environment stressors, particularly increased oxidative stress, we propose it may be a suitable countermeasure for upcoming deep space exploration.

Stephanie Puukila↗
DOE OSTI2025

Enhanced Feedstock Characterization and Modeling to Facilitate Optimal Preprocessing and Deconstruction of Corn Stover (Final Report)

This project addresses the challenge of processing corn stover by fractionating this biomass feedstock to both streamline processing and generate new potential co-products. Additionally, the project developed new field-deployable analytical tools that can be coupled with empirical models that were used to predict feedstock properties and processing performance. The overall scope of this project was: (1) identify conditions for optimal corn stover fractionation using a two- stage physical fractionation, (2) assess how physical fractionation impacts properties, partitioning of biomass, and response to processing, (3) further adapt, develop, and validate several advanced characterization tools for assessing biomass properties that can be linked to processing behavior, and (4) develop and validate predictive models based on measurements that can be performed “in the field” or “at the biorefinery gate” to predict feedstock processing behavior (preprocessing and deconstruction). The first objective employed pre-separation processing (size reduction) which was next subjected to enhanced separations to yield fractions enriched or depleted in select compositional components or properties. For the second objective, fractions were screened for their response to post-separation processing (pretreatment and enzymatic hydrolysis). Detailed characterization profiles were developed and dynamic image analysis to assess distribution of particle size and morphology. For the final objective, we utilized these tools to develop empirical models to assess the relative abundance of tissue type in order to assess fractionation efficacy and to predict fraction performance during pretreatment and enzymatic hydrolysis.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2024

MODELING AND METHOD FOR OPTICAL PERFORMANCE OF A RECEIVER COATING AND ITS DEGRADATION DUE TO OPERATION

The optical properties of the coating used on a concentrated solar power (CSP)’s receiver directly impact the performance of the power plant. Receiver coatings are designed to absorb as much heat as possible and transfer it to the circulating fluid. Over time, the absorptivity of the receiver coating degrades due to environmental and operational conditions. This project aims to (1) create a test apparatus that allows coatings to undergo accelerated lifetime testing under conditions that mimic what the coating will experience on-tower; and (2) develop a mathematical model that based on the test data predicts absorptivity over time. To create the mathematical model, samples of BrightSource Energy’s Gen1 and Gen2 coatings were tested first looking at individual failure modes (such as high temperature cycling) and then for combined failure modes in the newly developed apparatus. In addition to taking optical measurements, the samples were destroyed to allow for metalogical evaluation to understand what was happening on a microscopic level. Pre-existing models from the literature that describe accelerated testing as well as individual phenomena observed in the coating were then combined to create the model. Additionally, the Gen2 and Gen3 coatings are being testing at the Plataforma Solar de Almería (PSA) facility in Almeria, Spain to confirm that the apparatus test results are similar to those received on-sun. (PSA’s facility closely mimics on-tower conditions). The goal is to enable industry players to test coatings using the new apparatus, gather absorptivity measurements (without needing to destroy samples), and input the information into the model to determine how the coating will perform over time, thus allowing the optical performance of coatings to be compared even before they are used on-tower. The model will be publicly available by the end of the project (currently projected as December 2024).

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1990

Compensating for pneumatic distortion in pressure sensing devices

A general numerical technique for obtaining unsteady pressure measurements using conventional pressure sensing technology has been developed. A pneumatic distortion model, based on the Navier-Stokes equations of momentum and continuity, was reduced to a low-order, state-variable model retaining most of the dynamic characteristics of the full model. The reduced-order model is coupled with results from minimum variance estimation theory to develop an algorithm to compensate the effects of pneumatic distortion. Both postflight and real-time algorithms were developed and evaluated using simulated and flight data.

Whitmore, Stephen A.↗
NASA NTRS2020

Experimental Validation of Model-Based Prognostics for Pneumatic Valves

Because valves control many critical operations, they are prime candidates for deployment of prognostic algorithms. But, similar to the situation with most other components, examples of failures experienced in the field are hard to come by. This lack of data impacts the ability to test and validate prognostic algorithms. A solution sometimes employed to overcome this shortcoming is to perform run-to-failure experiments in a lab. However, the mean time to failure of valves is typically very high (possibly lasting decades), preventing evaluation within a reasonable time frame. Therefore, a mechanism to observe development of fault signatures considerably faster is sought. Described here is a testbed that addresses these issues by allowing the physical injection of leakage faults (which are the most common fault mode) into pneumatic valves. What makes this testbed stand out is the ability to modulate the magnitude of the fault almost arbitrarily fast. With that, the performance of end-of-life estimation algorithms can be tested. Further, the testbed is mobile and can be connected to valves in the field. This mobility helps to bring the overall process of prognostic algorithm development for this valve a step closer to validation. The paper illustrates the development of a model-based prognostic approach that uses data from the testbed for partial validation.

Chetan S Kulkarni↗
NASA NTRS2016

The Global Methane Budget 2000-2012

The global methane (CH4) budget is becoming an increasingly important component for managing realistic pathways to mitigate climate change. This relevance, due to a shorter atmospheric lifetime and a stronger warming potential than carbon dioxide, is challenged by the still unexplained changes of atmospheric CH4 over the past decade. Emissions and concentrations of CH4 are continuing to increase, making CH4 the second most important human-induced greenhouse gas after carbon dioxide. Two major difficulties in reducing uncertainties come from the large variety of diffusive CH4 sources that overlap geographically, and from the destruction of CH4 by the very short-lived hydroxyl radical (OH). To address these difficulties, we have established a consortium of multi-disciplinary scientists under the umbrella of the Global Carbon Project to synthesize and stimulate research on the methane cycle, and producing regular (approximately biennial) updates of the global methane budget. This consortium includes atmospheric physicists and chemists, biogeochemists of surface and marine emissions, and socio-economists who study anthropogenic emissions. Following Kirschke et al. (2013), we propose here the first version of a living review paper that integrates results of top-down studies (exploiting atmospheric observations within an atmospheric inverse-modeling framework) and bottom-up models, inventories and data-driven approaches (including process-based models for estimating land surface emissions and atmospheric chemistry, and inventories for anthropogenic emissions, data-driven extrapolations).For the 2003-2012 decade, global methane emissions are estimated by top-down inversions at 558 TgCH4 yr(exp -1), range 540-568. About 60 of global emissions are anthropogenic (range 50-65%). Since 2010, the bottom-up global emission inventories have been closer to methane emissions in the most carbon-intensive Representative Concentrations Pathway (RCP8.5) and higher than all other RCP scenarios. Bottom-up approaches suggest larger global emissions (736 TgCH4 yr(exp -1), range 596-884) mostly because of larger natural emissions from individual sources such as inland waters, natural wetlands and geological sources. Considering the atmospheric constraints on the top-down budget, it is likely that some of the individual emissions reported by the bottom-up approaches are overestimated, leading to too large global emissions. Latitudinal data from top-down emissions indicate a predominance of tropical emissions (approximately 64% of the global budget, less than 30deg N) as compared to mid (approximately 32%, 30-60deg N) and high northern latitudes (approximately 4%, 60-90deg N). Top-down inversions consistently infer lower emissions in China (approximately 58 TgCH4 yr(exp -1), range 51-72, minus14% ) and higher emissions in Africa (86 TgCH4 yr(exp -1), range 73-108, plus 19% ) than bottom-up values used as prior estimates. Overall, uncertainties for anthropogenic emissions appear smaller than those from natural sources, and the uncertainties on source categories appear larger for top-down inversions than for bottom-up inventories and models. The most important source of uncertainty on the methane budget is attributable to emissions from wetland and other inland waters. We show that the wetland extent could contribute 30-40% on the estimated range for wetland emissions. Other priorities for improving the methane budget include the following: (i) the development of process-based models for inland-water emissions, (ii) the intensification of methane observations at local scale (flux measurements) to constrain bottom-up land surface models, and at regional scale (surface networks and satellites) to constrain top-down inversions, (iii) improvements in the estimation of atmospheric loss by OH, and (iv) improvements of the transport models integrated in top-down inversions. The data presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (http://doi.org/10.3334/CDIAC/GLOBAL_ METHANE_BUDGET_2016_V1.1) and the Global Carbon Project.

Saunois, Marielle↗