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DOE OSTI2012

SPITZER OBSERVATIONS OF MF 16 NEBULA AND THE ASSOCIATED ULTRALUMINOUS X-RAY SOURCE

We present Spitzer Infrared Spectrograph observations of the ultraluminous X-ray source (ULX) NGC 6946 X-1 and its associated nebula MF 16. This ULX has very similar properties to the famous Holmberg II ULX, the first ULX to show a prominent infrared [O IV] emission line comparable to those found in active galactic nuclei. This paper attempts to constrain the ULX spectral energy distribution (SED) given the optical/UV photometric fluxes and high-resolution X-ray observations. Specifically, Chandra X-ray data and published Hubble optical/UV data are extrapolated to produce a model for the full optical to X-ray SED. The photoionization modeling of the IR lines and ratios is then used to test different accretion spectral models. While either an irradiated disk model or an O-supergiant plus accretion disk model fits the data very well, we prefer the latter because it fits the nebular parameters slightly better. In this second case the accretion disk alone dominates the extreme-UV and X-ray emission, while an O-supergiant is responsible for most of the far-UV emission.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2012

THE SMALL-SCALE PHYSICAL STRUCTURE AND FRAGMENTATION DIFFERENCE OF TWO EMBEDDED INTERMEDIATE-MASS PROTOSTARS IN ORION

Intermediate-mass (IM) protostars, the bridge between the very common solar-like protostars and the more massive, but rarer, O and B stars, can only be studied at high physical spatial resolutions in a handful of clouds. In this paper, we present and analyze the continuum results from an observing campaign at the Submillimeter Array (SMA) targeting two well-studied IM protostars in Orion, NGC 2071 and L1641 S3 MMS 1. The extended SMA (eSMA) probes structure at angular resolutions up to 0.''2, revealing protostellar disks on scales of {approx}200 AU. Continuum flux measurements on these scales indicate that a significant amount of mass, a few tens of M{sub Sun }, is present. Envelope, stellar, and disk masses are derived using compact, extended, and eSMA configurations and compared against spectral energy distribution fitting models. We hypothesize that fragmentation into three components occurred within NGC 2071 at an early time, when the envelopes were less than 10% of their current masses, e.g., <0.5 M{sub Sun }. No fragmentation occurred for L1641 S3 MMS 1. For NGC 2071, evidence is given that the bulk of the envelope material currently around each source was accreted after the initial fragmentation. In addition, about 30% of the total core mass is not yet associated to one of the three sources. A global accretion model is favored and a potential accretion history of NGC 2071 is presented. It is shown that the relatively low level of fragmentation in NGC 2071 was stifled compared to the expected fragmentation from a Jeans argument. Similarly, the lack of fragmentation in L1641 S3 MMS 1 is likely due to similar arguments.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2012

BLIND DETECTIONS OF CO J = 1-0 IN 11 H-ATLAS GALAXIES AT z = 2.1-3.5 WITH THE GBT/ZPECTROMETER

We report measurements of the carbon monoxide ground state rotational transition ({sup 12}C{sup 16}O J = 1-0) with the Zpectrometer ultrawideband spectrometer on the 100 m diameter Green Bank Telescope. The sample comprises 11 galaxies with redshifts between z = 2.1 and 3.5 from a total sample of 24 targets identified by Herschel-ATLAS photometric colors from the SPIRE instrument. Nine of the CO measurements are new redshift determinations, substantially adding to the number of detections of galaxies with rest-frame peak submillimeter emission near 100 {mu}m. The CO detections confirm the existence of massive gas reservoirs within these luminous dusty star-forming galaxies (DSFGs). The CO redshift distribution of the 350 {mu}m selected galaxies is strikingly similar to the optical redshifts of 850 {mu}m-selected submillimeter galaxies in 2.1 {<=} z {<=} 3.5. Spectroscopic redshifts break a temperature-redshift degeneracy; optically thin dust models fit to the far-infrared photometry indicate characteristic dust temperatures near 34 K for most of the galaxies we detect in CO. Detections of two warmer galaxies, and statistically significant nondetections, hint at warmer or molecule-poor DSFGs with redshifts that are difficult to determine from Herschel-SPIRE photometric colors alone. Many of the galaxies identified by H-ATLAS photometry are expected to be amplified by foreground gravitational lenses. Analysis of CO linewidths and luminosities provides a method for finding approximate gravitational lens magnifications {mu} from spectroscopic data alone, yielding {mu} {approx} 3-20. Corrected for magnification, most galaxy luminosities are consistent with an ultraluminous infrared galaxy classification, but three are candidate hyper-LIRGs with luminosities greater than 10{sup 13} L{sub Sun }.

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DOE OSTI2012

880 {mu}m IMAGING OF A TRANSITIONAL DISK IN UPPER SCORPIUS: HOLDOVER FROM THE ERA OF GIANT PLANET FORMATION?

We present 880 {mu}m images of the transition disk around the star [PZ99] J160421.7-213028, a solar mass star in the nearby Upper Scorpius association. With a resolution down to 0.''34, we resolve the inner hole in this disk, and via model fitting to the visibilities and spectral energy distribution we determine both the structure of the outer region and the presence of sparse dust within the cavity. The disk contains {approx}0.1 M{sub Jup} of millimeter-emitting grains, with an inner disk edge of about 70 AU. The inner cavity contains a small amount of dust with a depleted surface density in a region extending from about 20 to 70 AU. Taking into account prior observations indicating little to no stellar accretion, the lack of a binary companion, and the presence of dust near {approx}0.1 AU, we determine that the most likely mechanism for the formation of this inner hole is the presence of one or more giant planets.

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DOE OSTI2012

THE ROMER DELAY AND MASS RATIO OF THE sdB+dM BINARY 2M 1938+4603 FROM KEPLER ECLIPSE TIMINGS

The eclipsing binary system 2M 1938+4603 consists of a pulsating hot subdwarf B star and a cool M dwarf companion in an effectively circular three-hour orbit. The light curve shows both primary and secondary eclipses, along with a strong reflection effect from the cool companion. Here, we present constraints on the component masses and eccentricity derived from the Romer delay of the secondary eclipse. Using six months of publicly available Kepler photometry obtained in short-cadence mode, we fit model profiles to the primary and secondary eclipses to measure their centroid values. We find that the secondary eclipse arrives on average 2.06 {+-} 0.12 s after the midpoint between primary eclipses. Under the assumption of a circular orbit, we calculate from this time delay a mass ratio of q = 0.2691 {+-} 0.0018 and individual masses of M{sub sd} = 0.372 {+-} 0.024 M{sub Sun} and M{sub c} = 0.1002 {+-} 0.0065 M{sub Sun} for the sdB and M dwarf, respectively. These results differ slightly from those of a previously published light-curve modeling solution; this difference, however, may be reconciled with a very small eccentricity, ecos {omega} Almost-Equal-To 0.00004. We also report a decrease in the orbital period of P-dot = (-1.23 {+-} 0.07) Multiplication-Sign 10{sup -10}.

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DOE OSTI2012

STAR FORMATION AND YOUNG POPULATION OF THE H II COMPLEX Sh2-294

The Sh2-294 H II region ionized by a single B0V star features several infrared excess sources, a photodissociation region, and also a group of reddened stars at its border. The star formation scenario in this region seems to be quite complex. In this paper, we present follow-up results of Sh2-294 H II region at 3.6, 4.5, 5.8, and 8.0 {mu}m observed with the Spitzer Space Telescope Infrared Array Camera (IRAC), coupled with H{sub 2} (2.12 {mu}m) observation, to characterize the young population of the region and to understand its star formation history. We identified 36 young stellar object (YSO, Class I, Class II, and Class I/II) candidates using IRAC color-color diagrams. It is found that Class I sources are preferentially located at the outskirts of the H II region and associated with enhanced H{sub 2} emission; none of them are located near the central cluster. Combining the optical to mid-infrared (MIR) photometry of the YSO candidates and using the spectral energy distribution fitting models, we constrained stellar parameters and the evolutionary status of 33 YSO candidates. Most of them are interpreted by the model as low-mass (<4 M{sub Sun }) YSOs; however, we also detected a massive YSO ({approx}9 M{sub Sun }) of Class I nature, embedded in a cloud of visual extinction of {approx}24 mag. Present analysis suggests that the Class I sources are indeed a younger population of the region relative to Class II sources (age {approx} 4.5 Multiplication-Sign 10{sup 6} yr). We suggest that the majority of the Class I sources, including the massive YSOs, are second-generation stars of the region whose formation is possibly induced by the expansion of the H II region powered by a {approx}4 Multiplication-Sign 10{sup 6} yr B0 main-sequence star.

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DOE OSTI2012

REBIRTH OF X-RAY EMISSION FROM THE BORN-AGAIN PLANETARY NEBULA A30

The planetary nebula A30 is believed to have undergone a very late thermal pulse resulting in the ejection of knots of hydrogen-poor material. Using multi-epoch Hubble Space Telescope images, we have detected the angular expansion of these knots and derived an age of 850{sup +280}{sub -150} yr. To investigate the spectral and spatial properties of the soft X-ray emission detected by ROSAT, we have obtained Chandra and XMM-Newton deep observations of A30. The X-ray emission from A30 can be separated into two components: a point source at the central star and diffuse emission associated with the hydrogen-poor knots and the cloverleaf structure inside the nebular shell. To help us assess the role of the current stellar wind in powering this X-ray emission, we have determined the stellar parameters and wind properties of the central star of A30 using a non-LTE model fit to its optical and UV spectra. The spatial distribution and spectral properties of the diffuse X-ray emission are highly suggestive that it is generated by the post-born-again and present fast stellar winds interacting with the hydrogen-poor ejecta of the born-again event. This emission can be attributed to shock-heated plasma, as the hydrogen-poor knots are ablated by the stellar winds, under which circumstances the efficient mass loading of the present fast stellar wind raises its density and damps its velocity to produce the observed diffuse soft X-rays. Charge transfer reactions between the ions of the stellar winds and material of the born-again ejecta have also been considered as a possible mechanism for the production of diffuse X-ray emission, and upper limits on the expected X-ray production by this mechanism have been derived. The origin of the X-ray emission from the central star of A30 is puzzling: shocks in the present fast stellar wind and photospheric emission can be ruled out, while the development of a new, compact hot bubble confining the fast stellar wind seems implausible.

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DOE OSTI2012

CATCH ME IF YOU CAN: IS THERE A 'RUNAWAY-MASS' BLACK HOLE IN THE ORION NEBULA CLUSTER?

We investigate the dynamical evolution of the Orion Nebula Cluster (ONC) by means of direct N-body integrations. A large fraction of residual gas was probably expelled when the ONC formed, so we assume that the ONC was much more compact when it formed compared with its current size, in agreement with the embedded cluster radius-mass relation from Marks and Kroupa. Hence, we assume that few-body relaxation played an important role during the initial phase of evolution of the ONC. In particular, three-body interactions among OB stars likely led to their ejection from the cluster and, at the same time, to the formation of a massive object via 'runaway' physical stellar collisions. The resulting depletion of the high-mass end of the stellar mass function in the cluster is one of the important points where our models fit the observational data. We speculate that the runaway-mass star may have collapsed directly into a massive black hole (M{sub .} {approx}> 100 M{sub Sun }). Such a dark object could explain the large velocity dispersion of the four Trapezium stars observed in the ONC core. We further show that the putative massive black hole is likely to be a member of a binary system with Almost-Equal-To 70% probability. In such a case, it could be detected either due to short periods of enhanced accretion of stellar winds from the secondary star during pericentre passages, or through a measurement of the motion of the secondary whose velocity would exceed 10 km s{sup -1} along the whole orbit.

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DOE OSTI2012

CHANDRA OBSERVATIONS OF SGR 1627-41 NEAR QUIESCENCE

We report on an observation of SGR 1627-41 made with the Chandra X-Ray Observatory on 2011 June 16. Approximately three years after its outburst activity in 2008, the source's flux has been declining, as it approaches its quiescent state. For an assumed power-law spectrum, we find that the absorbed 2-10 keV flux for the source is 1.0{sup +0.3}{sub -0.2} Multiplication-Sign 10{sup -13} erg cm{sup -2} s{sup -1} with a photon index of 2.9 {+-} 0.8 (N{sub H} = 1.0 Multiplication-Sign 10{sup 23} cm{sup -2}). This flux is approximately consistent with that measured at the same time after the source's outburst in 1998. With measurements spanning three years after the 2008 outburst, we analyze the long-term flux and spectral evolution of the source. The flux evolution is well described by a double exponential with decay times of 0.5 {+-} 0.1 and 59 {+-} 6 days, and a thermal cooling model fit suggests that SGR 1627-41 may have a hot core (T{sub c} {approx} 2 Multiplication-Sign 10{sup 8} K). We find no clear correlation between flux and spectral hardness as found in other magnetars. We consider the quiescent X-ray luminosities of magnetars and the subset of rotation-powered pulsars with high magnetic fields (B {approx}> 10{sup 13} G) in relation to their spin-inferred surface magnetic field strength and find a possible trend between the two quantities.

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DOE OSTI2012

THE NEPTUNE-SIZED CIRCUMBINARY PLANET KEPLER-38b

We discuss the discovery and characterization of the circumbinary planet Kepler-38b. The stellar binary is single-lined, with a period of 18.8 days, and consists of a moderately evolved main-sequence star (M{sub A} = 0.949 {+-} 0.059 M {sub Sun} and R{sub A} = 1.757 {+-} 0.034 R {sub Sun }) paired with a low-mass star (M{sub B} = 0.249 {+-} 0.010 M {sub Sun} and R{sub B} = 0.2724 {+-} 0.0053 R {sub Sun }) in a mildly eccentric (e = 0.103) orbit. A total of eight transits due to a circumbinary planet crossing the primary star were identified in the Kepler light curve (using Kepler Quarters 1-11), from which a planetary period of 105.595 {+-} 0.053 days can be established. A photometric dynamical model fit to the radial velocity curve and Kepler light curve yields a planetary radius of 4.35 {+-} 0.11 R {sub Circled-Plus }, or equivalently 1.12 {+-} 0.03 R {sub Nep}. Since the planet is not sufficiently massive to observably alter the orbit of the binary from Keplerian motion, we can only place an upper limit on the mass of the planet of 122 M {sub Circled-Plus} (7.11 M {sub Nep} or equivalently 0.384 M {sub Jup}) at 95% confidence. This upper limit should decrease as more Kepler data become available.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2012

AN ANGLE-DEPENDENT SYNCHROTRON SELF-COMPTON MODEL FOR RELATIVISTIC JET SOURCES

We report on the development of a numerical code to calculate the angle-dependent synchrotron + synchrotron self-Compton radiation from relativistic jet sources with partially ordered magnetic fields and anisotropic particle distributions. Using a multi-zone radiation transfer approach, we can simulate magnetic-field configurations ranging from perfectly ordered (unidirectional) to randomly oriented (tangled). We demonstrate that synchrotron self-Compton model fits to the spectral energy distributions (SEDs) of extragalactic jet sources may be possible with a wide range of magnetic-field values, depending on their orientation with respect to the jet axis and the observer. This is illustrated with the example of a spectral fit to the SED of Mrk 421 from multiwavelength observations in 2006, where acceptable fits are possible with magnetic-field values varying within a range of an order of magnitude for different degrees of B-field alignment and orientation.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2012

WISE/NEOWISE OBSERVATIONS OF THE JOVIAN TROJAN POPULATION: TAXONOMY

We present updated/new thermal model fits for 478 Jovian Trojan asteroids observed with the Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE). Using the fact that the two shortest bands used by WISE, centered on 3.4 and 4.6 {mu}m, are dominated by reflected light, we derive albedos of a significant fraction of these objects in these bands. While the visible albedos of both the C-, P-, and D-type asteroids are strikingly similar, the WISE data reveal that the albedo at 3.4 {mu}m is different between C-/P- and D-types. The albedo at 3.4 {mu}m can thus be used to classify the objects, with C-/P-types having values less than 10% and D-types have values larger than 10%. Classifying all objects larger than 50 km shows that the D-type objects dominate both the leading cloud (L {sub 4}), with a fraction of 84%, and trailing cloud (L {sub 5}), with a fraction of 71%-80%. The two clouds thus have very similar taxonomic distribution for these large objects, but the leading cloud has a larger number of these large objects, L {sub 4}/L {sub 5} = 1.34. The taxonomic distribution of the Jovian Trojans is found to be different from that of the large Hildas, which is dominated by C- and P-type objects. At smaller sizes, the fraction of D-type Hildas starts increasing, showing more similarities with the Jovian Trojans. If this similarity is confirmed through deeper surveys, it could hold important clues to the formation and evolution of the two populations. The Jovian Trojans does have similar taxonomic distribution to that of the Jovian irregular satellites, but lacks the ultra red surfaces found among the Saturnian irregular satellites and Centaur population.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2012

SPATIALLY RESOLVED SPECTROSCOPY OF THE GLOBULAR CLUSTER RZ 2109 AND THE NATURE OF ITS BLACK HOLE

We present optical Hubble Space Telescope/Space Telescope Imaging Spectrograph (HST/STIS) spectroscopy of RZ 2109, a globular cluster (GC) in the elliptical galaxy NGC 4472. This GC is notable for hosting an ultraluminous X-ray source as well as associated strong and broad [O III] {lambda}{lambda}4959, 5007 emission. We show that the HST/STIS spectroscopy spatially resolves the [O III] emission in RZ 2109. While we are unable to make a precise determination of the morphology of the emission-line nebula, the best-fitting models all require that the [O III] {lambda}5007 emission has a half-light radius in the range 3-7 pc. The extended nature of the [O III] {lambda}5007 emission is inconsistent with published models that invoke an intermediate-mass black hole origin. It is also inconsistent with the ionization of ejecta from a nova in the cluster. The spatial scale of the nebula could be produced via the photoionization of a strong wind driven from a stellar mass black hole accreting at roughly its Eddington rate.

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DOE OSTI2012

POSSIBLE DETECTION OF APPARENT SUPERLUMINAL INWARD MOTION IN MARKARIAN 421 AFTER THE GIANT X-RAY FLARE IN 2010 FEBRUARY

We report on the very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) follow-up observations using the Japanese VLBI Network array at 22 GHz for the largest X-ray flare of TeV blazar Mrk 421 that occurred in 2010 mid-February. The total of five epochs of observations were performed at intervals of about 20 days between 2010 March 7 and May 31. No newborn component associated with the flare was seen directly in the total intensity images obtained by our multi-epoch VLBI observations. However, one jet component located at {approx}1 mas northwest from the core was able to be identified, and its proper motion can be measured as -1.66 {+-} 0.46 mas yr{sup -1}, which corresponds to an apparent velocity of -3.48 {+-} 0.97c. Here, this negative velocity indicates that the jet component was apparently moving toward the core. As the most plausible explanation, we discuss that the apparent negative velocity was possibly caused by the ejection of a new component, which could not be resolved with our observations. In this case, the obtained Doppler factor of the new component is around 10-20, which is consistent with the ones typically estimated by model fittings of spectral energy distribution for this source.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2012

A CONDITIONAL LUMINOSITY FUNCTION MODEL OF THE COSMIC FAR-INFRARED BACKGROUND ANISOTROPY POWER SPECTRUM

The cosmic far-infrared background (CFIRB) is expected to be generated by faint, dusty star-forming galaxies during the peak epoch of galaxy formation. The anisotropy power spectrum of the CFIRB captures the spatial distribution of these galaxies in dark matter halos and the spatial distribution of dark matter halos in the large-scale structure. Existing halo models of CFIRB anisotropy power spectrum either are incomplete or lead to halo model parameters that are inconsistent with the galaxy distribution selected at other wavelengths. Here, we present a conditional luminosity function approach to describe the far-IR bright galaxies. We model the 250 {mu}m luminosity function and its evolution with redshift and model-fit the CFIRB power spectrum at 250 {mu}m measured by the Herschel Space Observatory. We introduce a redshift-dependent duty cycle parameter so that we are able to estimate the typical duration of the dusty star formation process in the dark matter halos as a function of redshifts. We find that the duty cycle of galaxies contributing to the far-IR background is 0.3-0.5 with a dusty star formation phase lasting for {approx}0.3-1.6 Gyr. This result confirms the general expectation that the far-IR background is dominated by star-forming galaxies in an extended phase, not bright starbursts that are driven by galaxy mergers and last {approx}10-100 Myr. The halo occupation number for satellite galaxies has a power-law slope that is close to unity over 0 < z < 4. We find that the minimum halo mass for dusty, star-forming galaxies with L {sub 250} > 10{sup 10} L {sub Sun} is 2 Multiplication-Sign 10{sup 11} M {sub Sun} and 3 Multiplication-Sign 10{sup 10} M {sub Sun} at z = 1 and 2, respectively. Integrating over the galaxy population with L {sub 250} > 10{sup 9} L {sub Sun }, we find that the cosmic density of dust residing in the dusty, star-forming galaxies is responsible for the background anisotropies {Omega}{sub dust} {approx} 3 Multiplication-Sign 10{sup -6} to 2 Multiplication-Sign 10{sup -5}, relative to the critical density of the universe.

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DOE OSTI2012

A MULTI-WAVELENGTH STUDY OF THE SUNYAEV-ZEL'DOVICH EFFECT IN THE TRIPLE-MERGER CLUSTER MACS J0717.5+3745 WITH MUSTANG AND BOLOCAM

We present 90, 140, and 268 GHz subarcminute resolution imaging of the Sunyaev-Zel'dovich effect (SZE) in the disturbed, intermediate-redshift (z 0.5458) galaxy cluster MACS J0717.5+3745, a triple-merger system comprising four distinct, optically detected subclusters. Our 90 GHz SZE data result in a sensitive, 34 {mu}Jy beam{sup -1} map of the SZE at 13'' effective resolution using the MUSTANG bolometer array on the Green Bank Telescope (GBT). Our 140 and 268 GHz SZE imaging, with resolutions of 58'' and 31'' and sensitivities of 1.8 and 3.3 mJy beam{sup -1}, respectively, was obtained through observations from the Caltech Submillimeter Observatory using Bolocam. We compare these maps to a two-dimensional pressure map derived from Chandra X-ray observations. Our MUSTANG SZE data confirm previous indications from Chandra of a pressure enhancement due to shock-heated, {approx}> 20 keV gas immediately adjacent to extended radio emission seen in low-frequency radio maps of this cluster. MUSTANG also detects pressure substructure that is not well constrained by the Chandra X-ray data in the remnant core of a merging subcluster. We find that the small-scale pressure enhancements in the MUSTANG data amount to {approx}2% of the total pressure measured in the 140 GHz Bolocam observations. The X-ray inferred pseudo-pressure template also fails on larger scales to accurately describe the Bolocam data, particularly at the location of the subcluster with a remnant core known to have a high line-of-sight optical velocity of {approx}3200 km s{sup -1}. Our Bolocam data are adequately described when we add an additional component-not described by a thermal SZE spectrum-to the X-ray template coincident with this subcluster. Using flux densities extracted from our model fits, and marginalizing over the X-ray spectroscopic temperature constraints for the region, we fit a thermal + kinetic SZE spectrum to our Bolocam data and find that the subcluster has a best-fit line-of-sight proper velocity v{sub z} 3600{sup +3440}{sub -{sub 2160}} km s{sup -1}, in agreement with the optical velocity estimates for the subcluster. The probability v{sub z} {<=} 0 given our measurements is 2.1%. Repeating this analysis using flux densities measured directly from our maps results in a 3.4% probability v{sub z} {<=} 0. We note that this tantalizing result for the kinetic SZE is on resolved, subcluster scales.

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DOE OSTI2013

INITIAL SIZE DISTRIBUTION OF THE GALACTIC GLOBULAR CLUSTER SYSTEM

Despite the importance of their size evolution in understanding the dynamical evolution of globular clusters (GCs) of the Milky Way, studies that focus specifically on this issue are rare. Based on the advanced, realistic Fokker-Planck (FP) approach, we theoretically predict the initial size distribution (SD) of the Galactic GCs along with their initial mass function and radial distribution. Over one thousand FP calculations in a wide parameter space have pinpointed the best-fit initial conditions for the SD, mass function, and radial distribution. Our best-fit model shows that the initial SD of the Galactic GCs is of larger dispersion than today's SD, and that the typical projected half-light radius of the initial GCs is {approx}4.6 pc, which is 1.8 times larger than that of the present-day GCs ({approx}2.5 pc). Their large size signifies greater susceptibility to the Galactic tides: the total mass of destroyed GCs reaches 3-5 Multiplication-Sign 10{sup 8} M {sub Sun }, several times larger than previous estimates. Our result challenges a recent view that the Milky Way GCs were born compact on the sub-pc scale, and rather implies that (1) the initial GCs were generally larger than the typical size of the present-day GCs, (2) the initially large GCs mostly shrank and/or disrupted as a result of the galactic tides, and (3) the initially small GCs expanded by two-body relaxation, and later shrank by the galactic tides.

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DOE OSTI2013

STUDIES IN ASTRONOMICAL TIME SERIES ANALYSIS. VI. BAYESIAN BLOCK REPRESENTATIONS

This paper addresses the problem of detecting and characterizing local variability in time series and other forms of sequential data. The goal is to identify and characterize statistically significant variations, at the same time suppressing the inevitable corrupting observational errors. We present a simple nonparametric modeling technique and an algorithm implementing it-an improved and generalized version of Bayesian Blocks-that finds the optimal segmentation of the data in the observation interval. The structure of the algorithm allows it to be used in either a real-time trigger mode, or a retrospective mode. Maximum likelihood or marginal posterior functions to measure model fitness are presented for events, binned counts, and measurements at arbitrary times with known error distributions. Problems addressed include those connected with data gaps, variable exposure, extension to piecewise linear and piecewise exponential representations, multivariate time series data, analysis of variance, data on the circle, other data modes, and dispersed data. Simulations provide evidence that the detection efficiency for weak signals is close to a theoretical asymptotic limit derived by Arias-Castro et al. In the spirit of Reproducible Research all of the code and data necessary to reproduce all of the figures in this paper are included as supplementary material.

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