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At least 649 records · Page 36

Report on the ASCR Workshop on Modeling and Simulation of Exascale Systems and Applications

In the last few years, numerous studies commissioned by the Department of Energy (DOE), the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA), and others have examined the challenges that will have to be overcome for computational science to achieve exascale, a two order-of-magnitude increase in capability beyond what is possible today. Exponential growth in the number of devices (Moore's Law) is expected to continue unabated, but the end of Dennard scaling, and hence the growth in performance of individual processors, has led to exponential growth in concurrency. Power consumption has also grown to the point where the cost of the electrical power for systems threatens to exceed the cost of acquiring them. Ever-shrinking devices, and the growth in their number, are expected to increase the rate of soft, or transient, errors such that applications will no longer be able to assume correct behavior of the underlying machine. Adapting to such systems will require new mathematical algorithms that minimize synchronization and data movement, and a new generation of scientific software. Rather than addressing these issues in isolation, a new process of "Co-Design" is being pursued in which application and computer scientists work toward the common goal of an exascale ecosystem of systems and applications. Modeling and simulation (ModSim) is a critical part of this process. It enables scientists and engineers to analyze future algorithms, applications, and computing systems, long before they are realized, and make the necessary design decisions such that exascale science is broadly achieved. Later, when exascale applications and systems are realized, ModSim technology will enable us to understand their behavior, debugging and optimizing them. Given the increasing importance of modeling and simulation, a workshop was organized by DOE/ASCR to assess the current state of the art and to identify research challenges that must be overcome in this field. Fifty experts, representing academia, industry, and government, participated in the workshop, and others contributed both beforehand and afterwards. This report summarizes their findings.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Unsupervised machine learning based on non-negative tensor factorization for analyzing reactive-mixing

Analysis of reactive-diffusion simulations representing complex mixing processes requires a large number of independent model runs. For each high-fidelity model simulation, the model inputs are varied and the predicted mixing behavior is represented by temporal and spatial changes in species concentration. It is then required to discern how the model inputs (such as diffusivity, dispersion, anisotropy, and velocity field properties) impact the mixing process. This task is challenging and typically involves interpretation of large model outputs representing temporal and spatial changes of species concentration within the model domain. Yet, the task can be automated and substantially simplified by applying Machine Learning (ML) methods. Here, we present an application of an unsupervised ML method (called NTF k ) using Non-negative Tensor Factorization (NTF) coupled with a custom clustering procedure based on k-means to reveal the temporal and spatial features in product concentrations. An attractive and unique aspect of the proposed ML method is that it ensures the extracted features are non-negative, which is important to obtain a meaningful deconstruction of the mixing processes. The ML methodology is applied to a large set of high-resolution finite-element model simulations representing anisotropic reaction-diffusion processes in perturbed vortex-based velocity fields. The applied finite-element method ensures that spatial and temporal species concentration are always non-negative, even in the case of high anisotropic contrasts. The simulated reaction is a fast irreversible bimolecular reaction A+B→C , where species A and B react to form species C. The reactive-diffusion model input parameters that control mixing include properties of the velocity field (such as vortex structures), anisotropic dispersion, and molecular diffusion. We demonstrate the applicability of the ML feature extraction method to produce a meaningful deconstruction of model outputs to discriminate between different physical processes impacting the reactants, their mixing, and the spatial distribution of the product C. The introduced ML analysis allowed us to identify additive temporal and spatial features that characterize mixing behavior. The application of the proposed NTF k approach is not limited to reactive-mixing. NTFk can be readily applied to any observed or simulated datasets that can be represented as tensors (multi-dimensional arrays) and have separable latent signatures or features.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Propagation of statistical uncertainties of Skyrme mass models to simulations of r -process nucleosynthesis

Uncertainties in nuclear models have a major impact on simulations that aim at understanding the origin of heavy elements in the universe through the rapid neutron capture process ( r process) of nucleosynthesis. Within the framework of the nuclear density functional theory, we use results of Bayesian statistical analysis to propagate uncertainties in the parameters of energy density functionals to the predicted r -process abundance pattern, by way not only of the nuclear masses but also through the influence of the masses on β -decay and neutron capture rates. We point out the importance of the nonequilibrium end stage of the r process in determining the width of the resulting abundance pattern uncertainty bands. We additionally make the first identifications of specific parameters of Skyrme-like energy density functionals which show tentative correlations with particular aspects of the r -process abundance pattern. While previous studies have explored the reduction in the abundance pattern uncertainties due to anticipated new measurements of neutron-rich nuclei, here we point out that an even larger reduction will occur when these new measurements are used to reduce the uncertainty of model predictions of masses, which are then propagated through to the abundance pattern. We make a quantitative prediction for how large this reduction will be.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

QMMM 2023: A program for combined quantum mechanical and molecular mechanical modeling and simulations

Combined quantum mechanical and molecular mechanical (QM/MM) methods play an important role in multiscale modeling and simulations. QMMM 2023 is a general-purpose program for single-point calculations, geometry optimizations, transition-state optimizations, and molecular dynamics (MD) at the QM/MM level. It calls a QM package and an MM package to perform the required single-level calculations and combines them into a QM/MM energy by a variety of schemes. QMMM 2023 supports GAMESS-US, Gaussian, and ORCA as QM packages and Tinker as the MM package. Four types of treatments are available for embedding the QM subsystem in the MM environment: mechanical embedding with gas-phase calculations of the QM region, electronic embedding that allows polarization of the QM region by the MM environment, polarizable embedding for mutual polarization of the QM and MM regions, and flexible embedding for both mutual polarization and partial charge transfer between the QM and MM regions. Boundaries between QM and MM regions that pass through covalent bonds can be treated by several methods, including the redistributed charge (RC) scheme, redistributed charge and dipole (RCD) scheme, balanced-RC scheme, balanced-RCD scheme, screened charge scheme that takes account of charge penetration effects, and smeared charge scheme that delocalizes the MM charges near the QM–MM boundary. Geometry optimization can be done using the optimizer implemented in QMMM 2023 or the Berny optimizer in Gaussian through external calls to Gaussian. Molecular dynamics simulations can be performed at the pure-MM level, pure-QM level, fixed-partitioning QM/MM level, and adaptive-partitioning QM/MM level. As a result, the adaptive-partitioning treatments permit on-the-fly relocation of the QM–MM boundary by dynamically reclassifying atoms or groups into the QM or MM subsystems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Dynamic Modeling and Simulation of a Subcritical Coal-Fired Power Plant under Load-Following Conditions

Dynamic models for power plants that capture realistic general process trends and effects of manipulated variables are needed to improve load-following, while minimizing carbon footprint. In this work, a dynamic modeling approach and simulation results for subcritical coal-fired power plant components are presented. These encompass simulation of the dynamics in the fireside, including the effects of fuel, air combustion, and the dynamics of the entire waterside and power generation sections. This model development enables the simulation and analysis of the important short and long-time scale dynamics of components such as heaters, evaporative loop, and power generation units. Furthermore, additional variables in the power generation section are introduced to improve model accuracy, extending the prediction capability of subcritical power plant models and opening new opportunities for research in operator training, optimization, and advanced model-based controller design that are based on these models. The change in process gain for different ramp rates associated with disturbance signals that affect process variables is also explored and a correlation developed. This provides opportunities to study disturbance rejection control implementation and adaptation for scenarios with such variations in ramp rates. The prediction capabilities of selected components are compared to data available in literature, with the obtained root mean squared error ranges that reflect the model performance and quality of predictions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Evolution and forcing mechanisms of El Niño over the past 21,000 years

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is Earth’s dominant source of interannual climate variability, but its response to global warming remains highly uncertain1. To improve our understanding of ENSO’s sensitivity to external climate forcing, it is paramount to determine its past behaviour by using palaeoclimate data and model simulations. Palaeoclimate records show that ENSO has varied considerably since the Last Glacial Maximum (21,000 years ago), and some data sets predict a gradual intensification of ENSO over the past ~6,000 years. Other attempts to simulate the transient evolution of ENSO have relied on simplified models or snapshot experiments. In this work, we assess a series of transient Coupled General Circulation Model simulations forced by changes in greenhouse gasses, orbital forcing, the meltwater discharge and the ice-sheet history throughout the past 21,000 years. Consistent with most palaeo-ENSO reconstructions, our model simulates an orbitally induced strengthening of ENSO during the Holocene epoch, which is caused by increasing positive ocean–atmosphere feedbacks. During the early deglaciation, ENSO characteristics change drastically in response to meltwater discharges and the resulting changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and equatorial annual cycle. Increasing deglacial atmospheric CO 2 concentrations tend to weaken ENSO, whereas retreating glacial ice sheets intensify ENSO. The complex evolution of forcings and ENSO feedbacks and the uncertainties in the reconstruction further highlight the challenge and opportunity for constraining future ENSO responses.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Development of an Integrated Hydrological Model for Simulation of Surface Runoff and Stream Flow in Tims Branch Watershed, Savannah River Site, South Carolina - 16203

This research is part of continued efforts to develop an integrated transport model to predict the distribution of tin within the overland flow in Tims Branch Watershed (TBW) at Savannah River Site (SRS), South Carolina. Tin was introduced into TBW during the application of an innovative mercury remediation technology implemented by the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Environmental Management, which involved the injection of stannous (tin) chloride into mercury contaminated groundwater. Understanding the fate and transport of tin and its compounds is of primary importance due to their potential impact on the environment. In this study, we developed an overland hydrology model (MIKE SHE) capable of simulating surface hydrology throughout the TBW. The modeling application used historical precipitation, groundwater levels, geological data, and river discharges that were retrieved from government databases and input to the model. The model was developed to simulate spatio-temporal distribution of flow discharges, flow duration, and water levels in the TBW. The preliminary simulation results indicated that the model was capable of predicting flow depth and velocity within the study area during extreme climate events. The developed hydrology model will later on be coupled with transport model to simulate tin distribution within Tims Branch stream during seasonal storm events. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

A pseudo-kinetic model to simulate phase changes in gas hydrate bearing sediments

Herein, modeling of the phase transitions anticipated in gas hydrate bearing sediments (GHBS) is critical for a proper understanding of time-dependent changes in states and volumes (e.g. the production of methane from this type of soils). We propose a new pseudo-kinetic approach to simulate the typical phase changes anticipated in GHBS, using published experimental results involving gas hydrate dissociation that are the basis of a widely used kinetic model. The proposed pseudo-kinetic model is formulated in the pressure-temperature (P-T) plane and assumes a rate of gas hydrate dissociation (or formation) proportional to the distance between the current state and the phase boundary. The model consists of only one parameter and is simple to implement in numerical simulators. A similar concept is used to model ice formation/thawing phenomena, but based on the ice/liquid-water phase boundary. We implemented the pseudo-kinetic model in a fully coupled thermo-hydro-chemo-mechanical (THCM) finite element code and validated it against experimental results performed on the dissociation of synthetic gas hydrate. We also evaluated the pseudo-kinetic model using synthetic cases covering several scenarios associated with gas hydrate formation/dissociation and ice formation/thawing. The model successfully reproduced the gas production test from a natural GHBS core from Korea (scaled gas venting experiment over 14 h), and also the formation of gas hydrate and ice in permafrost in Alaska (over 2 × 10 6 years). -The analyses show the versatility of the proposed pseudo-kinetic approach by applying it to model the different types of phase transitions typically encounter in GHBS. The simple formulation, easy implementation in numerical simulator, and reduced number of parameters (only one per phase change) make this model an attractive option for simulating phase transformations in problems involving GHBS.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Optimization of Depletion Modeling and Simulation for the High Flux Isotope Reactor

Monte Carlo based depletion tools used for the high-fidelity modeling and simulation of the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) come at a great computational cost; finding sufficient approximations is necessary to make the use of these tools feasible. The optimization of the neutronics and depletion model for the HFIR is based on two factors: (i) the explicit representation of the involute fuel plates with sets of polyhedra and (ii) the treatment of depletion mixtures and control element position during depletion calculations. A very fine representation (i.e., more polyhedra in the involute plate approximation) does not significantly improve simulation accuracy. The recommended representation closely represents the physical plates and ensures sufficient fidelity in regions with high flux gradients. Including the fissile targets in the central flux trap of the reactor as depletion mixtures has the greatest effect on the calculated cycle length, while localized effects (e.g., the burnup of specific isotopes or the power distribution evolution over the cycle) are more noticeable consequences of including a critical control element search or depleting burnable absorbers outside the fuel region.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

CHARMM-GUI Bicelle Builder : An Extension of Membrane Builder for Modeling and Simulation of Bicelle Systems

Membrane mimetics, such as detergent micelles, nanodiscs, and amphipol complexes, which can provide membrane-like environments while retaining small and soluble features, have been utilized to study membrane proteins. A bicelle, composed of varying lipids and detergents, is a useful membrane mimetic because the lipid-to-detergent ratio, the q-value, can be adjusted to alter the properties of the aggregate, including the thickness and size of the bicelle. However, building a bicelle model for modeling and simulation studies requires nontrivial efforts, even for experts. We introduce CHARMM-GUI Bicelle Builder, a web-based platform that can generate various all-atom bicelle systems via a graphical user interface with all available lipids and detergents in Membrane Builder. To illustrate and validate Bicelle Builder with practical systems, we have modeled and simulated pure bicelles consisting of 1,2-dimyristoyl-sn-glycero-3-phosphocholine (DMPC) lipids with 1,2-dihexanoyl-sn-glycero-3-phosphocholine (C6DHPC) detergents and protein–bicelle complexes, composed of DMPC with C6DHPC, foscholine-10 (FOS10), and lysophosphatidylcholine-12 (LPC12) detergents. Our simulation results indicate that Bicelle Builder can generate reliable and robust bicelle models with and without proteins that retain DMPC bilayer characteristics. Bicelle Builder is expected to help researchers better understand not only bicelles themselves but also atomistic-level structures of protein–bicelle complexes that are often difficult to access through experimental approaches.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Distributed Wind Representation in Modeling and Simulation Tools: An Assessment of Existing Tools

PNNL evaluated the inclusion of wind in distributed energy resource modeling and simulation tools. Tools were assessed based on a survey of publicly available and readily accessible information. While the authors have made a good faith effort to understand these tools, PNNL does not know the intentions of the developers and acknowledges that some tool capabilities or features may not have been accurately captured in this assessment. This evaluation informs an ongoing effort by PNNL to modernize existing tools both directly by working with developers of some tools and indirectly by providing best practices on how different types of tools could enhance certain modeling features to improve distributed wind’s representation and valuation.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Modeling and simulation of gas separations with spiral–wound membranes

Models for gas separations with spiral–wound membranes are developed and found to exhibit good agreement with experiments performed on N 2 /O 2 mixtures. The two–dimensional (2D) model can be accurately approximated by a one–dimensional (1D) surrogate model when the spacer widths are chosen to make the channel pressure drops small. Subsequently, the separation of propane/propylene mixtures from the recycle purge stream of a polypropylene reactor is investigated. Assuming ideal gas is found to lead to significant overestimations in membrane stage cuts (sometimes more than 10%), an extent comparable to that associated with extrapolating constant olefin permeance from a low–pressure condition. While olefin permeance can change significantly with pressure, using a constant–permeance formulation can result in a small (< 2.5%) underprediction in stage cut if the value for the permeance is taken from the feed condition. Finally, membrane properties and costs necessary for a viable separation process are discussed.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Incorporation of aerosol into the COSPv2 satellite lidar simulator for climate model evaluation

Abstract. Atmospheric aerosol has substantial impacts on climate, air quality and biogeochemical cycles, and its concentrations are highly variable in space and time. A key variability to evaluate within models that simulate aerosol is the vertical distribution, which influences atmospheric heating profiles and aerosol–cloud interactions, to help constrain aerosol residence time and to better represent the magnitude of simulated impacts. To ensure a consistent comparison between modeled and observed vertical distribution of aerosol, we implemented an aerosol lidar simulator within the Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project (CFMIP) Observation Simulator Package version 2 (COSPv2). We assessed the attenuated total backscattered (ATB) signal and the backscatter ratios (SRs) at 532 nm in the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1 (E3SMv1). The simulator performs the computations at the same vertical resolution as the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP), making use of aerosol optics from the E3SMv1 model as inputs and assuming that aerosol is uniformly distributed horizontally within each model grid box. The simulator applies a cloud masking and an aerosol detection threshold to obtain the ATB and SR profiles that would be observed above clouds by CALIOP with its aerosol detection capability. Our analysis shows that the aerosol distribution simulated at a seasonal timescale is generally in good agreement with observations. Over the Southern Ocean, however, the model does not produce the SR maximum as observed in the real world. Comparison between clear-sky and all-sky SRs shows little differences, indicating that the cloud screening by potentially incorrect model clouds does not affect the mean aerosol signal averaged over a season. This indicates that the differences between observed and simulated SR values are due not to sampling errors, but to deficiencies in the representation of aerosol in models. Finally, we highlight the need for future applications of lidar observations at multiple wavelengths to provide insights into aerosol properties and distribution and their representation in Earth system models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Status Report on Modelling and Simulation Capabilities for Nuclear-Renewable Hybrid Energy Systems

This report summarizes the current status of the modeling and simulation capabilities developed for the economic assessment of Nuclear-Renewable Hybrid Energy Systems (N-R HES). The increasing penetration of variable renewables is altering the profile of the net demand, with which the other generators on the grid have to cope. N-R HES analyses are being conducted to determine the potential feasibility of mitigating the resultant volatility in the net electricity demand by adding industrial processes that utilize either thermal or electrical energy as stabilizing loads. This coordination of energy generators and users is proposed to mitigate the increase in electricity cost and cost volatility through the production of a saleable commodity. Overall, the financial performance of a system that is comprised of peaking units (i.e. gas turbine), baseload supply (i.e. nuclear power plant), and an industrial process (e.g. hydrogen plant) should be optimized under the constraint of satisfying an electricity demand profile with a certain level of variable renewable (wind) penetration. The optimization should entail both the sizing of the components/subsystems that comprise the system and the optimal dispatch strategy (output at any given moment in time from the different subsystems). Some of the capabilities here described have been reported separately in [1, 2, 3]. The purpose of this report is to provide an update on the improvement and extension of those capabilities and to illustrate their integrated application in the economic assessment of N-R HES.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

VERA-CS Modeling and Simulation of PWR Main Steam Line Break Core Response to DNB

The Virtual Environment for Reactor Applications core simulator (VERA-CS) being developed by the Consortium for the Advanced Simulation of Light Water Reactors (CASL) includes coupled neutronics, thermal-hydraulics, and fuel temperature components with an isotopic depletion capability. The neutronics capability employed is based on MPACT, a three-dimensional (3-D) whole core transport code. The thermal-hydraulics and fuel temperature models are provided by the COBRA-TF (CTF) subchannel code. As part of the CASL development program, the VERA-CS (MPACT/CTF) code system was applied to model and simulate reactor core response with respect to departure from nucleate boiling ratio (DNBR) at the limiting time step of a postulated pressurized water reactor (PWR) main steamline break (MSLB) event initiated at the hot zero power (HZP), either with offsite power available and the reactor coolant pumps in operation (high-flow case) or without offsite power where the reactor core is cooled through natural circulation (low-flow case). The VERA-CS simulation was based on core boundary conditions from the RETRAN-02 system transient calculations and STAR-CCM+ computational fluid dynamics (CFD) core inlet distribution calculations. The evaluation indicated that the VERA-CS code system is capable of modeling and simulating quasi-steady state reactor core response under the steamline break (SLB) accident condition, the results are insensitive to uncertainties in the inlet flow distributions from the CFD simulations, and the high-flow case is more DNB limiting than the low-flow case.

CTF↗

Simulation-Based Assessment of Energy Consumption of Alternative Powertrains in Agricultural Tractors

The objectives of this research were to develop simulation models for agricultural tractors with different powertrain technologies and evaluate the energy consumption in typical agricultural operations. Simulation models were developed for conventional, parallel hybrid electric, series hybrid electric, fuel cell hybrid, and battery electric powertrains. Autonomie vehicle simulation software (version 2022) was used for the simulations and the tractor models were simulated in two tilling cycles and in a road transport cycle with a trailer. The alternative powertrains were configured to have at least the same tractive performance as the conventional, diesel engine-powered tractor model. The simulation results showed that the potential of the parallel and series hybrid powertrains to improve energy efficiency depends heavily on the tractor size and the operating cycle conditions. The fuel cell hybrid and battery electric powertrains have a higher potential to reduce energy consumption and emissions but still have inherent technical challenges for practical operation. The battery-powered electric tractor would require improvements in the storage energy density to have a comparable operational performance in comparison to other powertrains. The fuel cell hybrid tractor already provided an adequate operating performance but the availability of hydrogen and refueling infrastructure could be challenging to resolve in the farming context.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗