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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 649 records · Page 36
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2002

Comparison of a 2D Photochemical Model to Data Using Statistical Trend Analysis

We have analyzed our 23-year merged ozone data set for variability and trends with a statistical time-series model. To assist in that analysis, we have analyzed the Goddard 2D photochemical model for the same time period with the same time-series model. Multiple runs of the photochemical model allow us to separate the effects of various terms on ozone, such as solar cycle and volcanic eruptions. We use this to help us separate those signals from each other in the data. We also used a smoothed version of the photochemical model's prediction of global ozone change in place of a simple linear trend. We find a number of interesting results. This particular photochemical model is more sensitive to chlorine perturbations than the atmosphere appears to be. It is less sensitive to solar cycle. It predicts an effect from the Pinatubo eruption that is nearly symmetric in the two hemispheres, but the data appears to have not responded to Pinatubo in the southern mid-latitudes. These results and their uncertainties will be discussed.

Bhartia, P. K.↗
NASA NTRS1972

Structural model optimization using statistical evaluation

The results of research in applying statistical methods to the problem of structural dynamic system identification are presented. The study is in three parts: a review of previous approaches by other researchers, a development of various linear estimators which might find application, and the design and development of a computer program which uses a Bayesian estimator. The method is tried on two models and is successful where the predicted stiffness matrix is a proper model, e.g., a bending beam is represented by a bending model. Difficulties are encountered when the model concept varies. There is also evidence that nonlinearity must be handled properly to speed the convergence.

Collins, J. D.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Statistical and Prediction modeling of the Ka Band Using Experimental Results from ACTS Propagation Terminals at 20.185 and 27.505 GHZ

With the increase in demand for wireless communication services, most of the operating frequency bands have become very congested. The increase of wireless costumers is only fractional contribution to this phenomenon. The demand for more services such as video streams and internet explorer which require a lot of band width has been a more significant contributor to the congestion in a communication system. One way to increase the amount of information or data per unit of time transmitted with in a wireless communication system is to use a higher radio frequency. However in spite the advantage available in the using higher frequency bands such as, the Ka-band, higher frequencies also implies short wavelengths. And shorter wavelengths are more susceptible to rain attenuation. Until the Advanced Communication Technology Satellite (ACTS) was launched, the Ka- band frequency was virtually unused - the majority of communication satellites operated in lower frequency bands called the C- and Ku- bands. Ka-band is desirable because its higher frequency allows wide bandwidth applications, smaller spacecraft and ground terminal components, and stronger signal strength. Since the Ka-band is a high frequency band, the millimeter wavelengths of the signals are easily degraded by rain. This problem known as rain fade or rain attenuation The Advanced Communication Technology Satellite (ACTS) propagation experiment has collected 5 years of Radio Frequency (RF) attenuation data from December 1993 to November 1997. The objective of my summer work is to help develop the statistics and prediction techniques that will help to better characterize the Ka Frequency band. The statistical analysis consists of seasonal and cumulative five-year attenuation statistics for the 20.2 and 27.5 GHz. The cumulative five-year results give the link outage that occurs for a given link margin. The experiment has seven ground station terminals that can be attributed to a unique rain zone climate. The locations are White Sands, NM, Tampa, Fly Clarksburg, MD, Norman, OK, Ft. Collins, COY Vancouver, BC, and Fairbanks, AK. The analysis will help us to develop and define specific parameters that will help system engineers develop the appropriated instrumentation and structure for a Ka-band wireless communication systems and networks.

Ogunwuyi, Oluwatosin O.↗
NASA NTRS1986

A statistical rain attenuation prediction model with application to the advanced communication technology satellite project. 1: Theoretical development and application to yearly predictions for selected cities in the United States

A rain attenuation prediction model is described for use in calculating satellite communication link availability for any specific location in the world that is characterized by an extended record of rainfall. Such a formalism is necessary for the accurate assessment of such availability predictions in the case of the small user-terminal concept of the Advanced Communication Technology Satellite (ACTS) Project. The model employs the theory of extreme value statistics to generate the necessary statistical rainrate parameters from rain data in the form compiled by the National Weather Service. These location dependent rain statistics are then applied to a rain attenuation model to obtain a yearly prediction of the occurrence of attenuation on any satellite link at that location. The predictions of this model are compared to those of the Crane Two-Component Rain Model and some empirical data and found to be very good. The model is then used to calculate rain attenuation statistics at 59 locations in the United States (including Alaska and Hawaii) for the 20 GHz downlinks and 30 GHz uplinks of the proposed ACTS system. The flexibility of this modeling formalism is such that it allows a complete and unified treatment of the temporal aspects of rain attenuation that leads to the design of an optimum stochastic power control algorithm, the purpose of which is to efficiently counter such rain fades on a satellite link.

Manning, Robert M.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Data-driven prediction of scaling and ignition of inertial confinement fusion experiments

Recent advances in inertial confinement fusion (ICF) at the National Ignition Facility (NIF), including ignition and energy gain, are enabled by a close coupling between experiments and high-fidelity simulations. Neither simulations nor experiments can fully constrain the behavior of ICF implosions on their own, meaning pre- and postshot simulation studies must incorporate experimental data to be reliable. Linking past data with simulations to make predictions for upcoming designs and quantifying the uncertainty in those predictions has been an ongoing challenge in ICF research. We have developed a data-driven approach to prediction and uncertainty quantification that combines large ensembles of simulations with Bayesian inference and deep learning. The approach builds a predictive model for the statistical distribution of key performance parameters, which is jointly informed by past experiments and physics simulations. The prediction distribution captures the impact of experimental uncertainty, expert priors, design changes, and shot-to-shot variations. We have used this new capability to predict a 10× increase in ignition probability between Hybrid-E shots driven with 2.05 MJ compared to 1.9 MJ, and validated our predictions against subsequent experiments. We describe our new Bayesian postshot and prediction capabilities, discuss their application to NIF ignition and validate the results, and finally investigate the impact of data sparsity on our prediction results.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
NASA NTRS1971

Properties of hadron matter. II - Dense baryon matter and neutron stars.

In this article we have provided certain details of a nuclear-matter computation, based on the Brueckner-Bethe-Goldstone theory of nuclear reaction, which leads to an equation of state for matter in the density region of 10 to 500 trillion g/cu cm. We also explore the possibilities that at very high baryon densities or for very short baryon separations, the net baryon-baryon interaction may be negligible so that the results of dynamical models, like the statistical bootstrap model and the dual-resonance model, may be applicable to the study of dense baryon matter. Several plausible equations of state are constructed, and their effect on the limiting mass of the neutron star is examined.

Leung, Y. C.↗
NASA NTRS1974

Model optimization using statistical estimation

Program revises initial or prior estimate of stiffness and mass parameters to parameters yielding frequency and mode characteristics in agreement with test data. Variances are also calculated and consequently define uncertainties of final estimates.

Collins, J. D.↗
NASA NTRS1979

A computer program for thermal radiation from gaseous rocket exhuast plumes (GASRAD)

A computer code is presented for predicting incident thermal radiation from defined plume gas properties in either axisymmetric or cylindrical coordinate systems. The radiation model is a statistical band model for exponential line strength distribution with Lorentz/Doppler line shapes for 5 gaseous species (H2O, CO2, CO, HCl and HF) and an appoximate (non-scattering) treatment of carbon particles. The Curtis-Godson approximation is used for inhomogeneous gases, but a subroutine is available for using Young's intuitive derivative method for H2O with Lorentz line shape and exponentially-tailed-inverse line strength distribution. The geometry model provides integration over a hemisphere with up to 6 individually oriented identical axisymmetric plumes, a single 3-D plume, Shading surfaces may be used in any of 7 shapes, and a conical limit may be defined for the plume to set individual line-of-signt limits. Intermediate coordinate systems may specified to simplify input of plumes and shading surfaces.

Reardon, J. E.↗
NASA NTRS1982

Modeling the joint statistics of satellite path XPD and attenuation

A new and simple technique for estimating from attenuation statistics alone the joint distribution of attenuation and cross-polarization impairments on a satellite-to-earth radio path is presented. It compares measurements with predictions for the CTS spacecraft 11.7 GHz right-hand circularly polarized downlink during the first six months of 1979.

Gaines, J. M.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Model development and statistical investigation of turbine blade mistuning

This paper discusses the development of an efficient algorithm which calculates the individual blade response of a bladed turbine disk, the subsequent statistical investigation to establish mistuning dependencies, and procedures which reduce the increase in blade amplitudes caused by mistuning.

Griffin, J. H.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Statistical Time Series Models of Pilot Control with Applications to Instrument Discrimination

A general description of the methodology used in obtaining the transfer function models and verification of model fidelity, frequency domain plots of the modeled transfer functions, numerical results obtained from an analysis of poles and zeroes obtained from z plane to s-plane conversions of the transfer functions, and the results of a study on the sequential introduction of other variables, both exogenous and endogenous into the loop are contained.

Altschul, R. E.↗
NASA NTRS1989

A complete sample of double-lobed radio quasars for VLBI tests of source models - Definition and statistics

A complete, flux-density-limited sample of double-lobed radio quasars is defined, with nuclei bright enough to be mapped with the Mark III VLBI system. It is shown that the statistics of linear size, nuclear strength, and curvature are consistent with the assumption of random source orientations and simple relativistic beaming in the nuclei. However, these statistics are also consistent with the effects of interaction between the beams and the surrounding medium. The distribution of jet velocities in the nuclei, as measured with VLBI, will provide a powerful test of physical theories of extragalactic radio sources.

Hough, D. H.↗
NASA NTRS2019

North American Extreme Precipitation Events and Related Large-Scale Meteorological Patterns: a Review of Statistical Methods, Dynamics, Modeling, and Trends

This paper surveys the current state of knowledge regarding Large-Scale Meteorological Patterns (LSMPs) associated with short-duration (less than one week) extreme precipitation events over North America. In contrast to teleconnections, which are typically defined based on the characteristic spatial variations of a meteorological field or on the remote circulation response to a known forcing, LSMPs are defined relative to the occurrence of a specific phenomenon—here, extreme precipitation—and with an emphasis on the synoptic scales that have a primary influence in individual events, have medium-range weather predictability, and are well-resolved in both weather and climate models. For the LSMP relationship with extreme precipitation, we consider the previous literature with respect to definitions and data, dynamical mechanisms, model representation, and climate change trends. There is considerable uncertainty in identifying extremes based on existing observational precipitation data and some limitations in analyzing the associated LSMPs in reanalysis data. Many different definitions of “extreme” are in use, making it difficult to directly compare different studies. Dynamically, several types of meteorological systems—extratropical cyclones, tropical cyclones, mesoscale convective systems, and mesohighs—and several mechanisms—fronts, atmospheric rivers, and orographic ascent—have been shown to be important aspects of extreme precipitation LSMPs. The extreme precipitation is often realized through mesoscale processes organized, enhanced, or triggered by the LSMP. Understanding of model representation, trends, and projections for LSMPs is at an early stage, although some 4 promising analysis techniques have been identified and the LSMP perspective is useful for evaluating model dynamics.

Mathew Barlow↗
DOE OSTI2024

An Open-Source Framework for Characterizing Urban Energy Models: Integrating Top-Down and Bottom-Up Methods to Predict Residential Buildings Characteristics: Preprint

Bottom-up urban energy models are crucial for understanding current energy use patterns and informing design strategies. However, accurately characterizing these models to represent different communities remains a challenge due to the extensive data needed for simulating existing energy use behavior. This data includes information related to human activities and building characteristics, all of which correlate with socioeconomic factors. To overcome this challenge, we developed an automated framework that utilizes both top-down and bottom-up data, to predict unknown building and occupant characteristics that are needed for more accurate and equitable modeling and analytics. Our framework, integrated into the URBANopt district energy modeling platform, uses statistical data models from ResStock. URBANopt models co-located buildings and neighborhoods. At this scale there are data gaps in building characteristic data, such as materials, insulation, occupancy, income, and energy usage of the buildings. To address this data gap, we use ResStock data, representative at the census tract scale, and develop machine-learning and deeplearning techniques to disaggregate it to individual buildings. By mapping unique occupant, building and economic properties to URBANopt energy models, we gain detailed insights into the variability of building energy use across different neighborhoods. This insight helps deploy technologies for co-located buildings and supports targeted upgrades for communities with unique economic and demographic characteristics, ensuring energy equity. Accurate characterization of energy models allows us to develop equitable strategies tailored to diverse neighborhoods, whether underserved or affluent. Our automated framework streamlines energy modeling and provides a reliable tool for building energy characterization.

ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATION↗