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At least 649 records · Page 36

Search for an Exotic S=-2, Q=-2 Baryon Resonance in Proton-Proton Interactions at $\sqrt{s_{NN}}$ = 17.3 GeV

Searches and analyses of strong gravitational lenses are challenging due to the rarity and image complexity of these astronomical objects. Next-generation surveys (both ground- and space-based) will provide more opportunities to derive science from these objects, but only if they can be analyzed on realistic time-scales. Currently, these analyses are expensive. In this work, we present a regression analysis with uncertainty estimates using deep learning models to measure four parameters of strong gravitational lenses in simulated Dark Energy Survey data. Using only $gri$-band images, we predict Einstein Radius, lens velocity dispersion, lens redshift to within $10-15\%$ of truth values and source redshift to $30\%$ of truth values, along with predictive uncertainties. This work helps to take a step along the path of faster analyses of strong lenses with deep learning frameworks.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Synergism of active and passive microwave data for estimating bare surface soil moisture

Active and passive microwave sensors were applied effectively to the problem of estimating the surface soil moisture in a variety of environmental conditions. Research to date has shown that both types of sensors are also sensitive to the surface roughness and the vegetation cover. In estimating the soil moisture, the effect of the vegetation and roughness are often corrected either by acquiring multi-configuration (frequency and polarization) data or by adjusting the surface parameters in order to match the model predictions to the measured data. Due to the limitations on multi-configuration spaceborne data and the lack of a priori knowledge of the surface characteristics for parameter adjustments, it was suggested that the synergistic use of the sensors may improve the estimation of the soil moisture over the extreme range of naturally occurring soil and vegetation conditions. To investigate this problem, the backscattering and emission from a bare soil surface using the classical rough surface scattering theory were modeled. The model combines the small perturbation and the Kirchhoff approximations in conjunction with the Peak formulation to cover a wide range of surface roughness parameters with respect to frequency for both active and passive measurements. In this approach, the same analytical method was used to calculate the backscattering and emissivity. Therefore, the active and passive simulations can be combined at various polarizations and frequencies in order to estimate the soil moisture more actively. As a result, it is shown that (1) the emissivity is less dependent on the surface correlation length, (2) the ratio of the backscattering coefficient (HH) over the surface reflectivity (H) is almost independent of the soil moisture for a wide range of surface roughness, and (3) this ratio can be approximated as a linear function of the surface rms height. The results were compared with the data obtained by a multi-frequency radiometer-scatterometer system working at frequencies between 3.0 GHz to 11.0 GHz. The data were acquired over bare soil surfaces with moisture variations due to freezing and thawing and roughness changes due to rain and erosion. The model predictions are shown to be in reasonable agreement with the data. In addition, it was shown that the same ratio when calculated from the data shows almost no dependence on the soil moisture. Finally, a simple technique which combines the backscattering coefficient at HH polarization (active sensing) with the emissivity at H polarization (passive sensing) is suggested for retrieving the soil moisture from bare soil surfaces.

Saatchi, Sasan S.↗

LAGEOS geodetic analysis-SL7.1

Laser ranging measurements to the LAGEOS satellite from 1976 through 1989 are related via geodetic and orbital theories to a variety of geodetic and geodynamic parameters. The SL7.1 analyses are explained of this data set including the estimation process for geodetic parameters such as Earth's gravitational constant (GM), those describing the Earth's elasticity properties (Love numbers), and the temporally varying geodetic parameters such as Earth's orientation (polar motion and Delta UT1) and tracking site horizontal tectonic motions. Descriptions of the reference systems, tectonic models, and adopted geodetic constants are provided; these are the framework within which the SL7.1 solution takes place. Estimates of temporal variations in non-conservative force parameters are included in these SL7.1 analyses as well as parameters describing the orbital states at monthly epochs. This information is useful in further refining models used to describe close-Earth satellite behavior. Estimates of intersite motions and individual tracking site motions computed through the network adjustment scheme are given. Tabulations of tracking site eccentricities, data summaries, estimated monthly orbital and force model parameters, polar motion, Earth rotation, and tracking station coordinate results are also provided.

Smith, D. E.↗

Rotation Rate of Saturn's Magnetosphere using CAPS Plasma Measurements

We present the present status of an investigation of the rotation rate of Saturn 's magnetosphere using a 3D velocity moment technique being developed at Goddard which is similar to the 2D version used by Sittler et al. (2005) [1] for SOI and similar to that used by Thomsen et al. (2010). This technique allows one to nearly cover the full energy range of the CAPS IMS from 1 V less than or equal to E/Q less than 50 kV. Since our technique maps the observations into a local inertial frame, it does work during roll manoeuvres. We have made comparisons with Wilson et al. (2008) [2] (2005-358 and 2005-284) who performs a bi-Maxwellian fit to the ion singles data and our results are nearly identical. We will also make comparisons with results by Thomsen et al. (2010) [3]. Our analysis uses ion composition data to weight the non-compositional data, referred to as singles data, to separate H+, H2+ and water group ions (W+) from each other. The ion data set is especially valuable for measuring flow velocities for protons, which are more difficult to derive using singles data within the inner magnetosphere, where the signal is dominated by heavy ions (i.e., proton peak merges with W+ peak as low energy shoulder). Our technique uses a flux function, which is zero in the proper plasma flow frame, to estimate fluid parameter uncertainties. The comparisons investigate the experimental errors and potential for systematic errors in the analyses, including ours. The rolls provide the best data set when it comes to getting 4PI coverage of the plasma but are more susceptible to time aliasing effects. Since our analysis is a velocity moments technique it will work within the inner magnetosphere where pickup ions are important and velocity distributions are non-Maxwellian. So, we will present results inside Enceladus' L shell and determine if mass loading is important. In the future we plan to make comparisons with magnetic field observations, use Saturn ionosphere conductivities as presently known and the field aligned currents necessary for the planet to enforce corotation of the rotating plasma.

Sittler, E.↗

Surface Turbulent Fluxes Over Pack Ice Inferred from TOVS Observations

A one-dimensional, atmospheric boundary layer model is coupled to a thermodynamic ice model to estimate the surface turbulent fluxes over thick sea ice. The principal forcing parameters in this time-dependent model are the air temperature, humidity, and wind speed at a specified level (either at 2 m or at 850 mb) and the downwelling surface radiative fluxes. The free parameters. are the air temperature, humidity, and wind speed profiles below the specified level, the surface skin temperature, the ice temperature profile, and the surface turbulent fluxes. The goal is to determine how well we can estimate the turbulent surface heat and momentum fluxes using forcing parameters from atmospheric temperatures and radiative fluxes retrieved from the TIROS-N Operational Vertical Sounder (TOVS) data. Meteorological observations from the Lead Experiment (LeadEx, April 1992) ice camp are used to validate turbulent fluxes computed with the surface observations and the results are used to compare with estimates based on radio-sonde observations or with estimates based on TOVS data. We find that the TOVS-based estimates of the stress are significantly more accurate than those found with a constant geostrophic drag coefficient, with a root-mean-square error about half as large. This improvement is due to stratification effects included in the boundary layer model. The errors in the sensible heat flux estimates, however, are large compared to the small mean values observed during the field experiment.

Lindsay, R. W.↗

Estimating the Properties of Hard X-Ray Solar Flares by Constraining Model Parameters

We wish to better constrain the properties of solar flares by exploring how parameterized models of solar flares interact with uncertainty estimation methods. We compare four different methods of calculating uncertainty estimates in fitting parameterized models to Ramaty High Energy Solar Spectroscopic Imager X-ray spectra, considering only statistical sources of error. Three of the four methods are based on estimating the scale-size of the minimum in a hypersurface formed by the weighted sum of the squares of the differences between the model fit and the data as a function of the fit parameters, and are implemented as commonly practiced. The fourth method is also based on the difference between the data and the model, but instead uses Bayesian data analysis and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques to calculate an uncertainty estimate. Two flare spectra are modeled: one from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite X1.3 class flare of 2005 January 19, and the other from the X4.8 flare of 2002 July 23.We find that the four methods give approximately the same uncertainty estimates for the 2005 January 19 spectral fit parameters, but lead to very different uncertainty estimates for the 2002 July 23 spectral fit. This is because each method implements different analyses of the hypersurface, yielding method-dependent results that can differ greatly depending on the shape of the hypersurface. The hypersurface arising from the 2005 January 19 analysis is consistent with a normal distribution; therefore, the assumptions behind the three non- Bayesian uncertainty estimation methods are satisfied and similar estimates are found. The 2002 July 23 analysis shows that the hypersurface is not consistent with a normal distribution, indicating that the assumptions behind the three non-Bayesian uncertainty estimation methods are not satisfied, leading to differing estimates of the uncertainty. We find that the shape of the hypersurface is crucial in understanding the output from each uncertainty estimation technique, and that a crucial factor determining the shape of hypersurface is the location of the low-energy cutoff relative to energies where the thermal emission dominates. The Bayesian/MCMC approach also allows us to provide detailed information on probable values of the low-energy cutoff, Ec, a crucial parameter in defining the energy content of the flare-accelerated electrons. We show that for the 2002 July 23 flare data, there is a 95% probability that Ec lies below approximately 40 keV, and a 68% probability that it lies in the range 7-36 keV. Further, the low-energy cutoff is more likely to be in the range 25-35 keV than in any other 10 keV wide energy range. The low-energy cutoff for the 2005 January 19 flare is more tightly constrained to 107 +/- 4 keV with 68% probability.

X-rays↗

Ground-Based Passive Microwave Remote Sensing Observations of Soil Moisture at S and L Band with Insight into Measurement Accuracy

Accurate estimates of spatially heterogeneous algorithm variables and parameters are required in determining the spatial distribution of soil moisture using radiometer data from aircraft and satellites. A ground-based experiment in passive microwave remote sensing of soil moisture was conducted in Huntsville, Alabama from July 1-14, 1996 to study retrieval algorithms and their sensitivity to variable and parameter specification. With high temporal frequency observations at S and L band, we were able to observe large scale moisture changes following irrigation and rainfall events, as well as diurnal behavior of surface moisture among three plots, one bare, one covered with short grass and another covered with alfalfa. The L band emitting depth was determined to be on the order of 0-3 or 0-5 cm below 0.30 cubic centimeter/cubic centimeter with an indication of a shallower emitting depth at higher moisture values. Surface moisture behavior was less apparent on the vegetated plots than it was on the bare plot because there was less moisture gradient and because of difficulty in determining vegetation water content and estimating the vegetation b parameter. Discrepancies between remotely sensed and gravimetric, soil moisture estimates on the vegetated plots point to an incomplete understanding of the requirements needed to correct for the effects of vegetation attenuation. Quantifying the uncertainty in moisture estimates is vital if applications are to utilize remotely-sensed soil moisture data. Computations based only on the real part of the complex dielectric constant and/or an alternative dielectric mixing model contribute a relatively insignificant amount of uncertainty to estimates of soil moisture. Rather, the retrieval algorithm is much more sensitive to soil properties, surface roughness and biomass.

Laymon, Charles A.↗

Magnetic Suspension Wind Tunnel Reconstruction Using an Extended Kalman Filter Framework

A Kalman filter tool has been created for processing data from NASA Langley’s Magnetic Suspension and Balance System. The filter is formulated to estimate aerodynamic parameters of a model that is levitated magnetically in the test section of the wind tunnel. The Kalman filter tool is a modification of an existing code that has been in use for solving trajectory reconstruction problems and has been validated through previous use supporting many flight projects. Modifications to the code were implemented to add the capability to process data from the magnetic suspension wind tunnel. In particular, the main modifications were to the equations of motion to add models for magnetic and aerodynamic forces and moments. The code has been tested using simulation data to provide a known truth for verification.

Christopher D. Karlgaard↗

Relating evaporative fraction to remotely sensed data at the FIFE site

Evaporative fractions at surface flux stations on the Konza Prairie are investigated by means of heat-flux estimation, evaporative fractions, and other remotely sensed parameters. Radiometric surface-temperature measurements are used to calculate sensible heat, and evaporative fraction is characterized by comparing systematic differences and consistencies at 21 stations. The evaporative fractions are related to soil and vegetation data collected concurrently with attention given to specific correlations. Little variation is found in the evaporative fraction during the day for the four periods studied, although the most significant change corresponded with the lowest values of soil moisture, leaf-area indices, and simple ratio. Uncertainties in air/surface temperature differences and in small wind speeds affect the reliability of estimates of the surface fluxes.

Gurney, R. J.↗

Land use classification for hydrologic models using interactive machine classification of LANDSAT data

Models designed to simulate the hydrology of urban areas require input parameters describing the land use and degree of imperviousness of the watershed. Unfortunately, the magnitude and spatial distribution of these parameters are rather difficult to estimate when a large watershed is involved. Trade-offs between accuracy of the model parameters and the time or money available for their determination must be made. Because of the necessity of such trade-offs, a study was developed to investigate the use of computer aided analysis of LANDSAT multispectral data in estimating percent of imperviousness and associated land uses needed in urban hydrologic modeling. An interactive computer was used to delineate seven land use classifications in the 342 sq. km. Maryland portion of the Anacostia River Basin from LANDSAT data. These results compared favorably with those of an earlier study which obtained the same information through analysis of aerial photographs having a scale of 1:4800. Approximately 94 man days were required to complete the land use analysis using the aerial photographs while less than three man days were required to accomplish similar tasks using the LANDSAT data.

Thomas J. Jackson↗

Estimating satellite pose and motion parameters using a novelty filter and neural net tracker

A system for determining the position, orientation and motion of a satellite with respect to a robotic spacecraft using video data is advanced. This system utilizes two levels of pose and motion estimation: an initial system which provides coarse estimates of pose and motion, and a second system which uses the coarse estimates and further processing to provide finer pose and motion estimates. The present paper emphasizes the initial coarse pose and motion estimation sybsystem. This subsystem utilizes novelty detection and filtering for locating novel parts and a neural net tracker to track these parts over time. Results of using this system on a sequence of images of a spin stabilized satellite are presented.

Lee, Andrew J.↗

Machine Learning Methods for Estimating Propeller Source Noise Spheres

In this work, several neural network function approximations are compared for inter- polating, storing, and sampling acoustic source spheres with applications to propeller noise estimation. These methods are compared using an acoustic model of the three bladed GL-10 propeller at different flight conditions, with training data generated using NASA’s ANOPP-PAS module. The source spheres used to train the networks capture the tonal propeller noise due to both the blade thickness and loading. This tonal noise prediction method allows the vehicle noise to be estimated for auralization and acoustic control. Three radial basis function neural network architectures are compared in this work. The first two networks directly estimate the parameters of the source sphere at different flight conditions but differ in the number of layers used. The third network estimates the parameters of the source sphere using a weighted combination of spherical basis functions. These networks are trained on numerically generated source spheres, with operating points given in terms of the propeller rotation rate, freestream speed, and propeller angle of attack. The performance of the neural network is determined using a validation dataset of withheld data points. This performance is quantified in terms of the approximation error, training time, and sample time. The third network, which estimates the weights of the spherical basis functions, performs the best in both average and maximum approximation errors in all cases. This network’s worst case performance is 5.6 % relative dif- ference of a model parameter associated with acoustic pressure. The direct estimation network with a single layer has the worst approximation error in all cases. Additionally, the spherically defined network has the slowest sample time at 0.05 seconds per thousand points. Both direct estimation methods produce a thousand sample points in approximately 0.001 seconds.

Acoustics↗

Use of Satellite, Surface Observations and Numerical Weather Prediction Model Data to Improve Cloud Base Height and Cloud Base Vertical Velocity Estimation

Cloud base height (CBH) and cloud base vertical velocity (CBVV) are important variables that impact the overall climate in a region as they influence the formulation, longevity, and evolution of clouds. Retrieval of both parameters have long used ground instrumentation (e.g., Doppler lidar (DL), ground base radar); however, retrieving CBH from satellites is particularly challenging given that space-based instruments only observe cloud tops. In this manuscript, CBH is retrieved using a multi-linear regression equation, while CBVV used a random forests model. Both retrievals combine satellite and numerical weather prediction data. The satellite data used are the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite imagery, while measurements of CBH and CBVV include DL and radiosonde data at the Southern Great Plains (SGP) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement observatory. Data from 83 summer days (May-August) in 2018–2021 featuring cumulus clouds forced by solar heating were examined and used to train the models, with years 2022–2023 used for validation. Various spatial domains were defined with one large (2.4° longitude by 2.0° latitude) SGP domain being split into smaller sections (smallest being 0.99° and 0.61° longitude and latitude respectably). CBH and CBVV values obtained from the DL as compared to the models show root mean square errors between 150 and 200 m, with CBVV values between 0.45 and 1 ms -1 . Finally, it was found that the CBH formulation performs well over all domains, while the CBVV retrievals become less accurate due to more turbulence being introduced into the observations as the number of DL stations decreases in the smaller domains.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Autonomous Modal Identification of the Space Shuttle Tail Rudder

Autonomous modal identification automates the calculation of natural vibration frequencies, damping, and mode shapes of a structure from experimental data. This technology complements damage detection techniques that use continuous or periodic monitoring of vibration characteristics. The approach shown in the paper incorporates the Eigensystem Realization Algorithm (ERA) as a data analysis engine and an autonomous supervisor to condense multiple estimates of modal parameters using ERA's Consistent-Mode Indicator and correlation of mode shapes. The procedure was applied to free-decay responses of a Space Shuttle tail rudder and successfully identified the seven modes of the structure below 250 Hz. The final modal parameters are a condensed set of results for 87 individual ERA cases requiring approximately five minutes of CPU time on a DEC Alpha computer.

Pappa, Richard S.↗

LAMOST Time-Domain survey: first results of four K2 plates

From Oct. 2019 to Apr. 2020, LAMOST performed a time-domain (TD) spectroscopic survey of four K2 plates with both low- and medium-resolution observations. The low-resolution spectroscopic survey acquired 282 exposures ( ≈ 46.6 h) over 25 nights, yielding a total of about 767 000 spectra, and the medium-resolution survey took 177 exposures ( ≈ 49.1 h) over 27 nights, collecting about 478 000 spectra. More than 70%/50% of low-resolution/medium-resolution spectra have signal-to-noise ratio higher than 10. We determine stellar parameters (e.g., T eff , log g, [Fe/H]) and radial velocity (RV) with different methods, including LASP, DD-Payne and SLAM. In general, these parameter estimations from different methods show good agreement, and the stellar parameter values are consistent with those of APOGEE. We use the Gaia DR2 RV values to calculate a median RV zero point (RVZP) for each spectrograph exposure by exposure, and the RVZP-corrected RVs agree well with the APOGEE data. The stellar evolutionary and spectroscopic masses are estimated based on the stellar parameters, multi-band magnitudes, distances and extinction values. Finally, we construct a binary catalog including about 2700 candidates by analyzing their light curves, fitting the RV data, calculating the binarity parameters from medium-resolution spectra and cross-matching the spatially resolved binary catalog from Gaia EDR3. In conclusion, the LAMOST TD survey is expected to represent a breakthrough in various scientific topics, such as binary systems, stellar activity, stellar pulsation, etc.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Regression Analysis of Top of Descent Location for Idle-thrust Descents

In this paper, multiple regression analysis is used to model the top of descent (TOD) location of user-preferred descent trajectories computed by the flight management system (FMS) on over 1000 commercial flights into Melbourne, Australia. The independent variables cruise altitude, final altitude, cruise Mach, descent speed, wind, and engine type were also recorded or computed post-operations. Both first-order and second-order models are considered, where cross-validation, hypothesis testing, and additional analysis are used to compare models. This identifies the models that should give the smallest errors if used to predict TOD location for new data in the future. A model that is linear in TOD altitude, final altitude, descent speed, and wind gives an estimated standard deviation of 3.9 nmi for TOD location given the trajec- tory parameters, which means about 80% of predictions would have error less than 5 nmi in absolute value. This accuracy is better than demonstrated by other ground automation predictions using kinetic models. Furthermore, this approach would enable online learning of the model. Additional data or further knowl- edge of algorithms is necessary to conclude definitively that no second-order terms are appropriate. Possible applications of the linear model are described, including enabling arriving aircraft to fly optimized descents computed by the FMS even in congested airspace. In particular, a model for TOD location that is linear in the independent variables would enable decision support tool human-machine interfaces for which a kinetic approach would be computationally too slow.

trajectory prediction↗

Scaled Vecchia Approximation for Fast Computer-Model Emulation

Many scientific phenomena are studied using computer experiments consisting of multiple runs of a computer model while varying the input settings. Gaussian processes (GPs) are a popular tool for the analysis of computer experiments, enabling interpolation between input settings, but direct GP inference is computationally infeasible for large datasets. We adapt and extend a powerful class of GP methods from spatial statistics to enable the scalable analysis and emulation of large computer experiments. Specifically, we apply Vecchia’s ordered conditional approximation in a transformed input space, with each input scaled according to how strongly it relates to the computer-model response. The scaling is learned from the data by estimating parameters in the GP covariance function using Fisher scoring. Our methods are highly scalable, enabling estimation, joint prediction, and simulation in near-linear time in the number of model runs. In several numerical examples, our approach substantially outperformed existing methods.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

The second-moment climatology of the GATE rain rate data

The first part of this paper presents the description of the GARP (Global Atmospheric Research Program) Atlantic Tropical Experiment (GATE) 1 rain-rate data and its two-dimensional spectral and correlation characteristics, which has made it possible to accomplish the following: to show the concentration of a significant power along the frequency axis in the spatiotemporal spectra; to detect a diurnal cycle (which has a range of variation of about 3.4-5.4 mm/n) as one of the sources of bias in the rain statistics of satellite data; to study the distinction between the north-south and east-west transport of spatial rain-rate field and character of its anisotropy; to evaluate the scales of the distinction between second-moment estimates associated with ground and satellite samples; and to determine the appropriate spatial and temporal scales of simple linear stochastic models fitted to averaged rain-rate fields. The second part of this paper is devoted to an analysis of the diffusion of the rain rate by establishing a relationship between the parameters of the multivariate autoregressive model and the coefficients of a diffusion equation. This analysis led to the use of rain data to estimate the rain advection velocity as well as other coefficients of the diffusion equation of the corresponding field. The results obtained can be used for comparison with corresponding estimates of other sources of data (satellite, Tropical Oceans Global Atmosphere Coupled Ocean - Atmosphere Response Experiment (TOGA, COARE) or simulated by physical models), for generating multiple samples of any size, for solving the inverse problems of some of the hydrodynamic equations, and in some other areas of rain data analysis and modeling.

Polyak, Ilya↗