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Study of the Protection Improvements for a Weak Grid Area With High Inverter-Based Resources (IBRs)

This project designs enhanced protection scheme for the real-world weak grid area with a high penetration of IBRs. As the existing protection schemes are originally designed for traditional synchronous machines, we first evaluate if the protection scheme will continue to operate reliably in systems with high levels of IBRs. Hardware relays are tested using a controller-hardware-in-the-loop setup. PSCAD electromagnetic transient simulation with IBR original equipment manufacturer black-box models is used to perform fault studies and generate COMTRADE data, which are replayed by a real-time digital simulator (RTDS) to feed input to the hardware relays. Three scenarios are analyzed: normal operation, an N-1 contingency, and an IBR-only scenario. The evaluation results reveal the following: 1) the protection scheme remains reliable under normal conditions and N-1 contingencies and 2) in IBR-only scenarios, differential protection (87L) continues to operate reliably, whereas local protection elements, such as distance and directional elements, fail because of the lack of regulated negative sequence current contributed by IBRs. Enhanced protection is designed to address the challenge of lack of negative sequence current from IBRs, including increased restraining factors a2 and k2 to block 32Q or using V instead QV ORDER for ground faults, enhanced mho distance element with voltage and phase angle supervision for L-L faults. The efficacy of enhanced protection logic is validated and proven to work reliably. Additionally, IEEE Std. 2800-2022 negative sequence current compliant GFL and GFM IBRs from another vendor are tested and proven to work reliably without need for enhanced logic. Therefore, this work provides valuable decision-making for utilities facing protection system challenges due to IBRs, either designing enhanced protection scheme or requesting their IBRs being IEEE Std. 2800-2022 compliant to produce regulated negative sequence current for protection relay to make correct decision.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Orbiting Rainbows: Optical Manipulation of Aerosols and the Beginnings of Future Space Construction

Our objective is to investigate the conditions to manipulate and maintain the shape of an orbiting cloud of dust-like matter so that it can function as an ultra-lightweight surface with useful and adaptable electromagnetic characteristics, for instance, in the optical, RF, or microwave bands. Inspired by the light scattering and focusing properties of distributed optical assemblies in Nature, such as rainbows and aerosols, and by recent laboratory successes in optical trapping and manipulation, we propose a unique combination of space optics and autonomous robotic system technology, to enable a new vision of space system architecture with applications to ultra-lightweight space optics and, ultimately, in-situ space system fabrication. Typically, the cost of an optical system is driven by the size and mass of the primary aperture. The ideal system is a cloud of spatially disordered dust-like objects that can be optically manipulated: it is highly reconfigurable, fault-tolerant, and allows very large aperture sizes at low cost. See Figure 1 for a scenario of application of this concept. The solution that we propose is to construct an optical system in space in which the nonlinear optical properties of a cloud of micron-sized particles are shaped into a specific surface by light pressure, allowing it to form a very large and lightweight aperture of an optical system, hence reducing overall mass and cost. Other potential advantages offered by the cloud properties as optical system involve possible combination of properties (combined transmit/receive), variable focal length, combined refractive and reflective lens designs, and hyper-spectral imaging. A cloud of highly reflective particles of micron-size acting coherently in a specific electromagnetic band, just like an aerosol in suspension in the atmosphere, would reflect the Sun's light much like a rainbow. The only difference with an atmospheric or industrial aerosol is the absence of the supporting fluid medium. This new concept is based on recent understandings in the physics of optical manipulation of small particles in the laboratory and the engineering of distributed ensembles of spacecraft clouds to shape an orbiting cloud of micron-sized objects. In the same way that optical tweezers have revolutionized micro- and nano-manipulation of objects, our breakthrough concept will enable new large scale NASA mission applications and develop new technology in the areas of Astrophysical Imaging Systems and Remote Sensing because the cloud can operate as an adaptive optical imaging sensor. While achieving the feasibility of constructing one single aperture out of the cloud is the main topic of this work, it is clear that multiple orbiting aerosol lenses could also combine their power to synthesize a much larger aperture in space to enable challenging goals such as exoplanet detection. Furthermore, this effort could establish feasibility of key issues related to material properties, remote manipulation, and autonomy characteristics of cloud in orbit. There are several types of endeavors (science missions) that could be enabled by this type of approach, i.e. it can enable new astrophysical imaging systems, exoplanet search, large apertures allow for unprecedented high resolution to discern continents and important features of other planets, hyperspectral imaging, adaptive systems, spectroscopy imaging through limb, and stable optical systems from Lagrange-points. Future micro-miniaturization might hold promise of a further extension of our dust aperture concept to other more exciting smart dust concepts with other associated capabilities.

Space Construction↗

Evaluating Protection System Performance for a Real-World Weak Grid Area With High Inverter-Based Resources

This paper evaluates an existing protection scheme implemented in a real-world weak grid area with a high penetration of inverter-based resources (IBRs). The study aims to assess the reliability and adequacy of protection schemes originally designed for traditional synchronous machine systems and determine whether they can continue to operate reliably in systems with high levels of IBRs. Hardware relays are tested using a controller-hardware-in-the-loop setup. PSCAD electromagnetic transient simulation with an IBR original equipment manufacturer black-box model is used to perform fault studies and generate COMTRADE data, which are replayed by a realtime digital simulator (RTDS) to feed input to the hardware relays. Three scenarios are analyzed: normal operation, an N-1 contingency, and an IBR-only scenario. The evaluation results reveal the following: 1) the protection scheme remains reliable under normal conditions and N-1 contingencies and 2) in IBRonly scenarios, differential protection (87L) continues to operate reliably, whereas local protection elements, such as distance and directional elements, fail because of the lack of regulated negative sequence current contributed by IBRs. These findings provide utilities with valuable insights for improving their protection systems in high-IBRs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Transient Stability-Enhancing Method for Grid-Forming Inverters Under Current Limiting

The primary controller of a grid-forming (GFM) inverter governs the internal reference voltage and angle, which enables the inverter to naturally synchronize and share power with the connected grid; however, during disturbances on the grid caused by, e.g., line faults, overloading, or frequency and phase shifts, a GFM inverter can be pushed into a current-limited operation to protect the device against thermal damage. This can lead to a windup of the internal reference frequency generated by the primary controller and cause a total loss of synchronism with the grid. Here, to make the primary controller of GFM inverters more robust against transient instability, this paper proposes a method that manipulates the reference signals governed by the primary controller by introducing the concept of fictitious power. The fictitious power counteracts the integrator windup in the primary controller, which enables the current-limited inverter to conceive a stable operating point. This method is benchmarked against five state-of-the-art GFM inverter stabilization methods to evaluate its stability-enhancing performance. Full-order electromagnetic-transient simulations and experimental results of a hardware inverter test setup validate the benefits of the method to improve the transient stability of GFM inverters in the face of grid disturbances.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Evaluating Protection System Performance for a Real-World Weak Grid Area With High Inverter-Based Resources: Preprint

This paper evaluates an existing protection scheme implemented in a real-world weak grid area with a high penetration of inverter-based resources (IBRs). The study aims to assess the reliability and adequacy of protection schemes originally designed for traditional synchronous machine systems and determine whether they can continue to operate reliably in systems with high levels of IBRs. Hardware relays are tested using a controller-hardware-in-the-loop setup. PSCAD electromagnetic transient simulation with an IBR original equipment manufacturer black-box model is used to perform fault studies and generate COMTRADE data, which are replayed by a real-time digital simulator (RTDS) to feed input to the hardware relays. Three scenarios are analyzed: normal operation, an N-1 contingency, and an IBR-only scenario. The evaluation results reveal the following: 1) the protection scheme remains reliable under normal conditions and N-1 contingencies and 2) in IBR-only scenarios, differential protection (87L) continues to operate reliably, whereas local protection elements, such as distance and directional elements, fail because of the lack of regulated negative sequence current contributed by IBRs. These findings provide utilities with valuable insights for improving their protection systems in high-IBRs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Enhanced Large-Signal Stability Method for Grid-Forming Inverters During Current Limiting: Preprint

Grid-forming (GFM) inverters are a promising technology for the widespread integration of renewable energy sources in future power systems. As a key element of GFM inverter control, the primary controller governs the internal reference voltage and angle. During contingencies in the grid---such as faults, voltage drops, or frequency and phase jumps---an inverter can be forced into a current-limiting mode of operation modulating inverter dynamics, and, as a result, it is prone to losing synchronism with the grid. In this paper, we propose a novel GFM primary control method with an additional synchronization term that naturally activates during contingencies to improve the dynamic response. The method allows the inverter to remain synchronized with the grid, which improves the inverter's dynamic behavior both during and after current-limiting grid conditions and enhances grid support, including voltage support using full current capacity. The method is demonstrated for voltage, frequency, and phase jumps both in a single-machine-to-infinite-bus and a network-wide electromagnetic transient simulation of the IEEE 14-bus system with 5 GFM inverters. The simulations provide insights into the proposed synchronization method and confirm the high potential of the method, which robustly secures synchronism under severe contingencies.

current limiting↗

Ultra High-Temperature Magnetic Bearing System for s-CO 2 Turbines/Expanders. Phase II Final Report

The goal of this project is to design and construct of a prototype of ultra-high temperature permanent magnet (UHT–PM), which provides the force to pull the spinning shaft towards the target position in the magnetic bearing (MB) clearance circle. This project will develop a PM biased MB system, that is actively cooled to the 550°C maximum operating temperature limit of PMs. The MB test environment will include 700°C, 40krpm and 4,000 psi requirements to advance the supercritical carbon dioxide (sCO 2 ) and other types of Brayton power cycle systems. The proposed novel MBs combine PMs for supplying the bias field and electromagnets for supplying the control field, both in UHT conditions. The choice of material is the UHT Sm-Co PMs (US patent 6,451,132) due to their significantly better thermal stability. The 6-pole homopolar design permits uninterrupted force delivery via a redundant control capability (US patent 7,429,811) even if 3 poles were to fail. The Phase I efforts was to focus on development and demonstration of component technologies and detailed design of full scale components and a demonstrator test rig for use in Phase II. UHT–PMs were produced and used in the MB actuator. The operating environment of the EEC-T550 Sm-Co magnet material could be extended by implementing active cooling. Electromagnetic coils imbedded in the MB provide forces to stabilize the shaft position at the target via sensing and control stages. Shaft position sensors enable to identify the present position of the spinning shaft relative to its desired target position in the MB clearance circle (air gap). Auxiliary bearings will be installed to provide a backup support system in the event that power to the MB fails or there is a fault in a device providing current to the MB coils. For control, reliability and safety reasons the sensors and auxiliary bearings are typically located as close as possible to the MBs, which exposes them to the same environmental conditions. Development of only the actuator for the UHT environment is an inadequate approach to complete integration of the MB system in the turbine/expander. Therefore the UHT sensor and auxiliary bearing were designed and developed along with the actively cooled, UHT-PM actuator development. Although shaft position sensors are commercially available (Kaman) they may cost up to $10k per channel, and a full 5 axis magnetic suspension is best implemented with up to 20 sensors. Once successfully completed, this project will significantly extend the operating environment capability for turbomachinery applications such as nuclear power, concentrated solar thermal, fossil fuel, geothermal, and shipboard propulsion. The further advancement of UHT-PM-MB will also strengthen the US position in PM technology, which is presently heavily dominated by China. The UHT Sm-Co magnet material that will be utilized in the proposed work has been developed exclusively by the project proposer. Many actuators, motors, generators and other MB applications will greatly benefit from the proposed work.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Exploring Properties and Correlations of Fatal Events in a Large-Scale HPC System

In this study, we explore potential correlations of fatal system events for one of the most powerful supercomputers-IBM Blue Gene/Q Mira, which is deployed at Argonne National Laboratory, based on its 5-year reliability, availability, and serviceability (RAS) log. Our contribution is two-fold. (1) We design an efficient log analysis tool, namely LogAider, with a novel filtering method to effectively extract fatal events from masses of system messages that are heavily duplicated in the log. LogAider exhibits a very precise detection of temporal-correlation with a high similarity (up to 95 percent) to the ground-truth (i.e., compared to the failure records reported by the administrators). The total number of fatal events can be reduced to about 1,255 compared with originally 2.6 million duplicated fatal messages. (2) We analyze the 5-year RAS log of the MIRA system using LogAider, and summarize six important "takeaways" which can help system vendors and administrators better understand an extreme-scale system's fatal events. Specifically, we find that the distribution or proportion of the fatal system events follow a Pareto-like principle in general. The temporal correlation among fatal events is much stronger than that of warn messages and info messages, and the correlated events tend to constitute a few clusters. The mean time between fatal events (MTBFE) of the Mira system is about 1.3 days from the perspective of the system, and the MTTI is 2-4 days from the perspective of users. The most error-prone item value with respect to any key attribute appears likely in the log every 2-10 days. Weibull, Gamma, and Pearson6 are the three best-fit distributions for the fatal event intervals. The overall correlation of fatal events on the 5D torus network is not prominent, whereas the small-region locality correlation (e.g., the fatal events inside racks) is relatively strong. We believe our work will be interesting to large-scale HPC system administrators and vendors and to fault tolerance researchers, enabling them to better understand fatal events and mitigate such events accordingly.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

An Operational Resilience Metric to Evaluate Inertia and Inverter-based Generation on the Grid

In an effort to reduce carbon emissions and curtail the effects of climate change there has been considerable effort to increase the penetration of inverter-based renewable energy sources. The adoption of renewable generation over conventional inertia-based generation sources is forming considerable challenges for the operation and stability of the power system. The power system has been designed around generation units characterized by high inertia and primary frequency response (PFR), allowing them to respond to disturbances such as faults or generators tripping off line. In contrast, the modern inverter-based assets are characterized by no contribution to inertia and they typically provide stochastic generation at their maximum output, thus having no contribution to PFR during low-frequency disturbance events. Because of this, inertia in power systems is reducing, resulting in a faster rate of frequency change after a disturbance occurs. As more inverter-based generation units are added to the grid it is important to understand the stability of the system and the size of disturbance a system is capable of withstanding. This paper presents a resilience metric that evaluates the maximum size of disturbance a systems can withstand based on the system inertia and the primary frequency control of inverter and inertia-based generation. The results are shown visually and are based on the real-time operation of generation units and their characteristics such as latency, ramp rates, and energy constraints. It is demonstrated that the real-time positioning or bias of the generating units has an effect of the size of disturbance that a system can withstand, i.e. its resilience. It is expected that this type of analysis can help operators increase the resilience of power systems in the future.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Data Analytics for Electrical Distribution Systems with Micro PMUs (GMLC 1.4.9 Technical Report)

This report describes how electrical utilities with residential, industrial, commercial and government customers make decisions using Data Analytics (DA) applications and discusses how OpenFMB was leveraged to share that data among disparate types of devices for DA. OpenFMB is a data standard developed by utilities for distributed communication and control of power system assets. Here we explored how OpenFMB can be used for sharing analytics and what those analytics could be for a set of representative grid devices. A review of DA applications performed by electrical utilities and customers is presented. An overview of how the testbed we used was built and configured is summarized. Several experiments which were carried out to explore the capabilities of OpenFMB alongside other data sharing mechanisms for gathering sensor measurements and sharing analytics is also discussed. And finally a comparison of OpenFMB and LBNL’s SPARK framework is summarized. Today’s electrical utilities focus on monitoring the real-time customer consumptions, offering new real-time tariff models based on customer usage habits (rewards and punishments), providing energy peak during peak load times (plan energy generation and distribution), improving the load management for transformers and power lines, and controlling the energy and grid resources efficiently. On the other hand, the DA applications for residential customers are based on modifying the customer electricity usage habit to save money, making accurate and timely decisions for electrical billing. However, the DA applications for industrial, commercial and government customers focus on creating efficient programs to improve the environmental condition (reducing CO₂ emission), developing better load forecasting for industrial and/or commercial activities. In this project, a testbed was built to explore how the OpenFMB framework can be used to distribute data among various types of representative grid edge devices. Micro PMUs (Phasor Measurement Unit) were used to collect and transmit data to an OpenPDC server alongside relays with a framework configured with a system using OpenFMB to collect and transmit data. The testbed was composed of a physical asset based on a 60 Hz AC radial power system constructed using SI-GRID components. The power system consisted of a 3-phase 14 volts line-to-ground (24 volts line-to-line) power source, three 3-phase line emulators, a programmable resistive load bank, two smart relays, two micro PMUs, and a (SCADA) and Phasor Data Concentrator (PDC) computer. This testbed configuration allowed us to perform breaker operation tests collecting data from the micro PMUs and from the relays’ sensors. During the micro PMU breaker operation tests we collected the measured and estimated fundamental voltages, currents, frequency as well as the total true, reactive and apparent power. The displacement power factor from two micro PMUs located in parallel power lines was also used. The software steps for the implementation of the Synchrophasor system are explained in detail in this report. The setting (1-2-3) and data collection (4-5) phases were performed with a free download open source software. In the setting phase, the micro PMUs were set (1), the data stream for each micro PMU was validated, and the connection and configuration files were created (2). The PDC computer was set using the connection and configuration files of the micro PMUs (3). In the data collection phase, the binary data from the micro PMUs was collected (4), and the binary data files of the micro PMUs was converted to analyze the test results (5). OpenFMB was configured to use protocol translators to read Modbus and transform the reading into the OpenFMB data model to be read for DA applications.Our experiments showed that by leveraging the OpenFMB data model and the micro PMUs together we could obtain better situational awareness of network faults, which in some cases could lead to failures in the system and would be less perceivable otherwise. For example, in one experiment the fundamental RMS current angle, and the fundamental displacement power factor (estimated by the ratio between the measured real and apparent total power) had a disturbance at the micro PMU connected to the beginning of the parallel power line because the breaker was opened without the operators or SCADA system’s knowledge, and no current was available. Based on the breaker state scenarios and micro PMU locations, the DA applications using the current angle and displacement power factor from the micro PMUs should be studied in detail to avoid a non-desired measurement that could affect the decision from the DA. Also, the sample rates for PMU, Relay and micro PMU devices were compared. The DA application improved the control and operation between the electrical utilities and their customers (residential, industrial, transportation, commercial and government). The higher the sample rate, the better the quality of the measurement for DA estimations.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Resilience Analysis of DC Microgrids under Denial of Service Threats

This paper develops a resilience analysis framework to study the fault ride-through capability of direct current (DC) microgrids in unknown denial of service (DoS) cyber incidents. DoS can be a frequent threat to DC microgrids with advanced controllers that hinge on active information exchanges: it can paralyze data communications and cause control ineptness or even system instability. Furthermore, we show that temporal DoS incidents render the DC microgrid cyber-physical topology and parameters time-varying and cause them to jump between faulty conditions. As existing DC microgrid stability analysis results are primarily developed from time-invariant systems, they might not be valid for the DoS interrupted systems. In this paper, we seek to study whether a DC microgrid is resilient against time-varying unknown DoS incidents. The problem is formulated as a stability analysis problem for a system with randomly switching dynamics. Scalable conditions are developed to provide provable resilience guarantees. In addition, we exploit the special structure of the conditions to yield quantified resilience measure by convex optimization techniques. As a result, the measure can be used for the evaluation of the resilience of different DC microgrid design against DoS incidents. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed work using simulation case studies.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

A Sensitivity-driven Wide Area Protection (SWAP) Coordination Tool for High Penetration of Inverter-based Resources (IBR)

Traditionally, power system generation sources have been composed of synchronous generators, of which the fault current behavior is understood with minimal differences between generation size and types due to the physics of their construction. Present protection schemes and modeling methods are based upon these understood characteristics. Most renewable generation is composed of inverter-based resources (IBR), in which fault current is determined by switching control software and hardware limitations, each of which can vary between manufacturers and even between models of the same manufacturer. The resulting fault current is low in magnitude, low in negative-sequence current, unpredictable phase angles, and is a challenge to model. These characteristics also result in a challenge to traditional protection schemes and fault simulation software. To address several of these concerns, the project has the following goals: 1. Improve IBR models: Improve IBR models used in short circuit (SC) programs to accurately capture the response of IBRs at the bulk power system (BPS) level for fault and protection studies. 2. Develop automation tool: Develop an automation tool that allows engineers to identify protection coordination and sensitivity issues by performing SC and protection coordination studies in a high IBR-penetrated grid by applying variations to the IBR models, faults, contingencies, etc. 3. Develop schemes: Develop new protection mitigation solution schemes that complement the existing protection systems to ensure safe operation of the BPS with higher IBR penetration levels. The project team did not achieve this final goal, as the Department of Energy (DOE) stopped the project early due to changes in DOE funding priorities. The termination notice came at the beginning of the final project phase, while the team was identifying and beginning to investigate protection issues. It should be noted that the team discussed a 100% penetration scenario. However, this scenario would require the use of grid-forming IBR models that are not presently available. Since developing these models requires additional effort, the 100% penetration scenario was not pursued during this project. In the future, developing the methodology and models for the 100% scenario could benefit the industry.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

QCOR; A Language Extension Specification for the Heterogeneous Quantum-Classical Model of Computation

Quantum computing (QC) is an emerging computational paradigm that leverages the laws of quantum mechanics to perform elementary logic operations. Existing programming models for QC were designed with fault-tolerant hardware in mind, envisioning stand-alone applications. However, the susceptibility of near-term quantum computers to noise limits their stand-alone utility. To better leverage limited computational strengths of noisy quantum devices, hybrid algorithms have been suggested whereby quantum computers are used in tandem with their classical counterparts in a heterogeneous fashion. This modus operandi calls out for a programming model and a high-level programming language that natively and seamlessly supports heterogeneous quantum-classical hardware architectures in a single-source-code paradigm. Motivated by the lack of such a model, we introduce a language extension specification, called QCOR, which enables single-source quantum-classical programming. Programs written using the QCOR library–based language extensions can be compiled to produce functional hybrid binary executables. After defining QCOR’s programming model, memory model, and execution model, we discuss how QCOR enables variational, iterative, and feed-forward QC. Additionally, QCOR approaches quantum-classical computation in a hardware-agnostic heterogeneous fashion and strives to build on best practices of high-performance computing. The high level of abstraction in the language extension is intended to accelerate the adoption of QC by researchers familiar with classical high-performance computing.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Research Roadmap on Grid-Forming Inverters

This research roadmap is intended to fill the knowledge gap by providing a system view of grid-forming inverter-based resource controls and their impact on grid stability, which we believe is central to meeting some of the challenges to operating the future North American electric power system. This includes the roles and requirements of grid-forming inverter-based resources—including solar photovoltaics, wind generators, and energy storage. For this roadmap, we focus on a specific family of grid-forming inverter control approaches that do not rely on an external voltage source (i.e., no phase-locked loop) and that can share load without explicit communications. Although the roadmap is focused narrowly on system challenges for grid-forming controls and power system stability, including interactions with protection, we hope it serves as a foundational element for future system-of-systems roadmapping needed in a broader grid modernization effort with increasing deployments of inverter-based resources. The roadmap first introduces formal definitions for the grid stability topics and then describes the differences between grid-forming and traditional grid-following control approaches for inverter-based resources. The core of the roadmap consists of a review of current research and an outline of research needs related to five grid-forming inverter topics: frequency control, voltage control, system protection, fault ride-through and voltage recovery, and modeling and simulation. The review both delineates contemporary advances and highlights open research questions that must be addressed to enable the widespread adoption of inverter-based resources across the grid. Feedback from industry on these research questions is incorporated, including discussions during the Workshop on Grid-forming Inverters for Low-inertia Power Systems. The workshop included industry presentations and discussion of ongoing research, technology gaps, and piloting needs. This roadmap concludes by offering a multiyear perspective on the gradual field validation of grid-forming inverters. This perspective recognizes that the scale and scope of the types of power systems that inverters will be called on to provide grid-forming services will and should begin modestly. Specifically, this roadmap recognizes that inverter controls today are predominantly grid-following and that future power systems will involve a mix of inverter-based resources with both grid-following and grid-forming control capabilities. Growth over time will depend on how well grid-forming inverters perform and what advantages they bring as penetration levels (instantaneous and average) of inverter-based resources increases. This recognition, in turn, establishes a natural sequence of priorities for the research questions that must be addressed. Following this multiyear perspective, the roadmap offers short descriptions of two specific near-term research priorities: the review of regulatory and technical standards and the development of advanced modeling techniques. These priorities are foundational. We recommend immediate pursuit of them in parallel with and in direct support of the research outlined by our multiyear perspective.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Geomechanical Framework for Secure CO 2 Storage in Fractured Reservoirs and Caprocks for Sedimentary Basins in theMidwest United States

This report presents final technical results for the project Geomechanical Framework for Secure CO 2 Storage in Fractured Reservoirs and Caprocks for Sedimentary Basins in the Midwest United States (DE-FE0023330). The project was a three-year effort consisting of seven technical tasks focused on defining geomechanical factors for CO 2 storage applications in deep saline rock formations in Ohio and the Midwest United States, because geomechancial issues have been identified as a significant risk factor for large-scale CO 2 storage applications. A basin-scale stress-strain analysis was completed to describe the geomechanical setting for rock formations of Ordovician-Cambrian age in Ohio and adjacent areas of the Midwest United States in relation to geologic CO 2 storage applications. The tectonic setting, stress orientation-magnitude, and geomechanical and petrophysical parameters for CO 2 storage zones and caprocks in the region were cataloged. Ten geophysical image logs were analyzed for natural fractures, borehole breakouts, and drilling-induced fractures. The logs indicated mostly less than 10 fractures per 100 vertical feet in the borehole, with mostly N65E principal stress orientation through the section. Geophysical image logs and other logs were obtained for three wells located near the sites where specific models were developed for geomechanical simulations: Arches site in Boone County, Kentucky; Northern Appalachian Basin site in Chautauqua County, New York; and E-Central Appalachian Basin site in Tuscarawas County, Ohio. For these three wells, 9,700 feet of image logs were processed and interpreted to provide a systematic review of the distribution within each well of natural fractures, wellbore breakouts, faults, and drilling induced fractures. There were many borehole breakouts and drilling-induced tensile fractures but few natural fractures. Concentrated fractures were present at the Rome-basal sandstone and basal sandstone-Precambrian contacts at the Arches and East-Central Appalachian Basin sites. Geophysical logs were utilized to develop local-scale geologic models by determining geomechanical and petrophysical parameters within the geologic formations. These data were ported to coupled fluid-flow and reservoir geomechanics multi-phase CO 2 injection simulations. The models were developed to emphasize the geomechanical layers within the CO 2 storage zones and caprocks. A series of simulations were completed for each site to evaluate whether commercial-scale CO 2 could be safely injected into each site, given site-specific geologic and geomechanical controls. This involved analyzing the simulation results for the integrity of the caprock, intermediate, and reservoir zones, as well quantifying the areal uplift at the surface. Simulation results were also examined to ensure that the stress-stress perturbations were isolated within the subsurface, and that there was only limited upward migration of the CO 2 . Simulations showed capacity to inject more than 10 million metric tons of CO 2 in a single well at the Arches and East Central Appalachian Basin sites without excessive geomechanical risks. Low-permeability rock layers at the Northern Appalachian Basin study area well resulted in very low CO 2 injection capacity. Fracture models developed for the sites suggests that the sites have sparse fracture network in the deeper Cambrian rocks. However, there were indicators in image logs of a moderate fracture matrix in the Rose Run Sandstone at the Northern Appalachian Basin site. Dual permeability fracture matrix simulations suggest the much higher injection rates may be feasible in the fractured interval. Guidance was developed for geomechanical site characterization in the areas of geophysical logging, rock core testing, well testing, and site monitoring. The guidance demonstrates that there is a suitable array of options for addressing geomechanical issues at CO 2 storage sites. Finally, a review of Marcellus and Utica-Point Pleasant shale gas wells and CO 2 storage intervals indicates that these items are vertically separated, except for the Oriskany sandstone and Marcellus wells in southwest Pennsylvania and northern West Virginia. Together, project results present a more realistic portrayal of geomechanical risk factors related to CO 2 storage for existing and future coal-fired power plants in Ohio.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Modeling and Evaluation of Cyber-Attacks on Grid-Interactive Efficient Buildings

Grid-interactive efficient buildings (GEBs) are not only exposed to passive threats (e.g., physical faults) but also active threats such as cyber-attacks launched on the network-based control systems. The impact of cyber-attacks on GEB operation are not yet fully understood, especially as regards the performance of grid services. To quantify the consequences of cyber-attacks on GEBs, this paper proposes a modeling and simulation framework that includes different cyber-attack models and key performance indexes to quantify the performance of GEB operation under cyber-attacks. The framework is numerically demonstrated to model and evaluate cyber-attacks such as data intrusion attacks and Denial-of-Service attacks on a typical medium-sized office building that uses the BACnet/IP protocol for communication networks. Simulation results show that, while different types of attacks could compromise the building systems to different extents, attacks via the remote control of a chiller yield the most significant consequences on a building system’s operation, including both the building service and the grid service. It is also noted that a cyber-attack impacts the building systems during the attack period as well as the post-attack period, which suggests that both periods should be considered to fully evaluate the consequences of a cyber-attack.

Fu, Yanyang↗

Enabling Advanced Automation in Spacecraft Operations with the Spacecraft Emergency Response System

True autonomy is the Holy Grail of spacecraft mission operations. The goal of launching a satellite and letting it manage itself throughout its useful life is a worthy one. With true autonomy, the cost of mission operations would be reduced to a negligible amount. Under full autonomy, any problems (no matter the severity or type) that may arise with the spacecraft would be handled without any human intervention via some combination of smart sensors, on-board intelligence, and/or smart automated ground system. Until the day that complete autonomy is practical and affordable to deploy, incremental steps of deploying ever-increasing levels of automation (computerization of once manual tasks) on the ground and on the spacecraft are gradually decreasing the cost of mission operations. For example, NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center (NASA-GSFC) has been flying spacecraft with low cost operations for several years. NASA-GSFC's SMEX (Small Explorer) and MIDEX (Middle Explorer) missions have effectively deployed significant amounts of automation to enable the missions to fly predominately in 'light-out' mode. Under light-out operations the ground system is run without human intervention. Various tools perform many of the tasks previously performed by the human operators. One of the major issues in reducing human staff in favor of automation is the perceived increased in risk of losing data, or even losing a spacecraft, because of anomalous conditions that may occur when there is no one in the control center. When things go wrong, missions deploying advanced automation need to be sure that anomalous conditions are detected and that key personal are notified in a timely manner so that on-call team members can react to those conditions. To ensure the health and safety of its lights-out missions, NASA-GSFC's Advanced Automation and Autonomy branch (Code 588) developed the Spacecraft Emergency Response System (SERS). The SERS is a Web-based collaborative environment that enables secure distributed fault and resource management. The SERS incorporates the use of intelligent agents, threaded discussions, workflow, database connectivity, and links to a variety of communications devices (e.g., two-way paging, PDA's, and Internet phones) via commercial gateways. When the SERS detects a problem, it notifies on-call team members, who then can remotely take any necessary actions to resolve the anomalies.The SERS goes well beyond a simple '911' system that sends out an error code to everyone with a pager. Instead, SERS' software agents send detailed data (i.e., notifications) to the most appropriate team members based on the type and severity of the anomaly and the skills of the on-call team members. The SERS also allows the team members to respond to the notifications from their wireless devices. This unique capability ensures rapid response since the team members no longer have to go to a PC or the control center for every anomalous event. Most importantly, the SERS enables safe experimentation with various techniques for increasing levels of automation, leading to robust autonomy. For the MIDEX missions at NASA GSFC, the SERS is used to provide 'human-in-the-loop' automation. During lights-out operations, as greater control is given to the MIDEX automated systems, the SERS can be configured to page remote personnel and keep them informed regarding actions taking place in the control center. Remote off-duty operators can even be given the option of enabling or inhibiting a specific automated response in near real time via their two-way pagers. The SERS facilitates insertion of new technology to increase automation, while maintaining the safety and security of mission resources. This paper will focus on SERS' overall functionality and how SERS has been designed to handle the monitoring and emergency response for missions with varying levels of automation. The paper will also convey some of the key lessons learned from SERS' deployment across of variety of missions, highlighting this incremental approach to achieving 'robust autonomy'.

Breed, Julie↗

Subsurface Characterization and Machine Learning Predictions at Brady Hot Springs Results

Geothermal power plants typically show decreasing heat and power production rates over time. Mitigation strategies include optimizing the management of existing wells - increasing or decreasing the fluid flow rates across the wells - and drilling new wells at appropriate locations. The latter is expensive, time-consuming, and subject to many engineering constraints, but the former is a viable mechanism for periodic adjustment of the available fluid allocations. Data and supporting literature from a study describing a new approach combining reservoir modeling and machine learning to produce models that enable strategies for the mitigation of decreased heat and power production rates over time for geothermal power plants. The computational approach used enables translation of sets of potential flow rates for the active wells into reservoir-wide estimates of produced energy and discovery of optimal flow allocations among the studied sets. In our computational experiments, we utilize collections of simulations for a specific reservoir (which capture subsurface characterization and realize history matching) along with machine learning models that predict temperature and pressure timeseries for production wells. We evaluate this approach using an "open-source" reservoir we have constructed that captures many of the characteristics of Brady Hot Springs, a commercially operational geothermal field in Nevada, USA. Selected results from a reservoir model of Brady Hot Springs itself are presented to show successful application to an existing system. In both cases, energy predictions prove to be highly accurate: all observed prediction errors do not exceed 3.68% for temperatures and 4.75% for pressures. In a cumulative energy estimation, we observe prediction errors that are less than 4.04%. A typical reservoir simulation for Brady Hot Springs completes in approximately 4 hours, whereas our machine learning models yield accurate 20-year predictions for temperatures, pressures, and produced energy in 0.9 seconds. This paper aims to demonstrate how the models and techniques from our study can be applied to achieve rapid exploration of controlled parameters and optimization of other geothermal reservoirs. Includes a synthetic, yet realistic, model of a geothermal reservoir, referred to as open-source reservoir (OSR). OSR is a 10-well (4 injection wells and 6 production wells) system that resembles Brady Hot Springs (a commercially operational geothermal field in Nevada, USA) at a high level but has a number of sufficiently modified characteristics (which renders any possible similarity between specific characteristics like temperatures and pressures as purely random). We study OSR through CMG simulations with a wide range of flow allocation scenarios. Includes a dataset with 101 simulated scenarios that cover the period of time between 2020 and 2040 and a link to the published paper about this project, where we focus on the Machine Learning work for predicting OSR's energy production based on the simulation data, as well as a link to the GitHub repository where we have published the code we have developed (please refer to the repository's readme file to see instructions on how to run the code). Additional links are included to associated work led by the USGS to identify geologic factors associated with well productivity in geothermal fields. Below are the high-level steps for applying the same modeling + ML process to other geothermal reservoirs: 1. Develop a geologic model of the geothermal field. The location of faults, upflow zones, aquifers, etc. need to be accounted for as accurately as possible 2. The geologic model needs to be converted to a reservoir model that can be used in a reservoir simulator, such as, for instance, CMG STARS, TETRAD, or FALCON 3. Using native state modeling, the initial temperature and pressure distributions are evaluated, and they become the initial conditions for dynamic reservoir simulations 4....

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗