Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Predictability”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 649 records · Page 36
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2010

Multivariate Methods for Prediction of Geologic Sample Composition with Laser-Induced Breakdown Spectroscopy

Laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) uses pulses of laser light to ablate a material from the surface of a sample and produce an expanding plasma. The optical emission from the plasma produces a spectrum which can be used to classify target materials and estimate their composition. The ChemCam instrument on the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) mission will use LIBS to rapidly analyze targets remotely, allowing more resource- and time-intensive in-situ analyses to be reserved for targets of particular interest. ChemCam will also be used to analyze samples that are not reachable by the rover's in-situ instruments. Due to these tactical and scientific roles, it is important that ChemCam-derived sample compositions are as accurate as possible. We have compared the results of partial least squares (PLS), multilayer perceptron (MLP) artificial neural networks (ANNs), and cascade correlation (CC) ANNs to determine which technique yields better estimates of quantitative element abundances in rock and mineral samples. The number of hidden nodes in the MLP ANNs was optimized using a genetic algorithm. The influence of two data preprocessing techniques were also investigated: genetic algorithm feature selection and averaging the spectra for each training sample prior to training the PLS and ANN algorithms. We used a ChemCam-like laboratory stand-off LIBS system to collect spectra of 30 pressed powder geostandards and a diverse suite of 196 geologic slab samples of known bulk composition. We tested the performance of PLS and ANNs on a subset of these samples, choosing to focus on silicate rocks and minerals with a loss on ignition of less than 2 percent. This resulted in a set of 22 pressed powder geostandards and 80 geologic samples. Four of the geostandards were used as a validation set and 18 were used as the training set for the algorithms. We found that PLS typically resulted in the lowest average absolute error in its predictions, but that the optimized MLP ANN and the CC ANN often gave results comparable to PLS. Averaging the spectra for each training sample and/or using feature selection to choose a small subset of wavelengths to use for predictions gave mixed results, with degraded performance in some cases and similar or slightly improved performance in other cases. However, training time was significantly reduced for both PLS and ANN methods by implementing feature selection, making this a potentially appealing method for initial, rapid-turn-around analyses necessary for Chemcam's tactical role on MSL. Choice of training samples has a strong influence on the accuracy of predictions. We are currently investigating the use of clustering algorithms (e.g. k-means, neural gas, etc.) to identify training sets that are spectrally similar to the unknown samples that are being predicted, and therefore result in improved predictions

Morris, Richard↗
NASA NTRS2011

Satellite Observations and Chemistry Climate Models - A Meandering Path Towards Better Predictions

Knowledge of the chemical and dynamical processes that control the stratospheric ozone layer has grown rapidly since the 1970s, when ideas that depletion of the ozone layer due to human activity were put forth. The concept of ozone depletion due to anthropogenic chlorine increase is simple; quantification of the effect is much more difficult. The future of stratospheric ozone is complicated because ozone is expected to increase for two reasons: the slow decrease in anthropogenic chlorine due to the Montreal Protocol and its amendments and stratospheric cooling caused by increases in carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. Prediction of future ozone levels requires three-dimensional models that represent physical, photochemical and radiative processes, i.e., chemistry climate models (CCMs). While laboratory kinetic and photochemical data are necessary inputs for a CCM, atmospheric measurements are needed both to reveal physical and chemical processes and for comparison with simulations to test the conceptual model that CCMs represent. Global measurements are available from various satellites including but not limited to the LIMS and TOMS instruments on Nimbus 7 (1979 - 1993), and various instruments on the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (1991 - 2005), Envisat (2002 - ongoing), Sci-Sat (2003 - ongoing) and Aura (2004 - ongoing). Every successful satellite instrument requires a physical concept for the measurement, knowledge of physical chemical properties of the molecules to be measured, and stellar engineering to design an instrument that will survive launch and operate for years with no opportunity for repair but providing enough information that trend information can be separated from any instrument change. The on-going challenge is to use observations to decrease uncertainty in prediction. This talk will focus on two applications. The first considers transport diagnostics and implications for prediction of the eventual demise of the Antarctic ozone hole. The second focuses on the upper stratosphere, where ozone is predicted to increase both due to chlorine decrease and due to temperature decrease expected as a result of increased concentrations Of CO2 and other greenhouse gases. Both applications show how diagnostics developed from global observations are being used to explain why the ozone response varies among CCM predictions for stratospheric ozone in the 21st century.

Douglass, Anne R.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Chondritic Models of 4 Vesta: Comparison of Data from the Dawn Mission with Predicted Internal Structure and Surface Composition/Mineralogy

While the HEDs provide an extremely useful basis for interpreting data from the Dawn mission, there is no guarantee that they provide a complete vision of all possible crustal (and possibly mantle) lithologies that are exposed at the surface of Vesta. With this in mind, an alternative approach is to identify plausible bulk compositions and use mass-balance and geochemical modelling to predict possible internal structures and crust/mantle compositions and mineralogies. While such models must be consistent with known HED samples, this approach has the potential to extend predictions to thermodynamically plausible rock types that are not necessarily present in the HED collection. Nine chondritic bulk compositions are considered (CI, CV, CO, CM, H, L, LL, EH, EL). For each, relative proportions and densities of the core, mantle, and crust are quantified. This calculation is complicated by the fact that iron may occur in metallic form (in the core) and/or in oxidized form (in the mantle and crust). However, considering that the basaltic crust has the composition of Juvinas and assuming that this crust is in thermodynamic equilibrium with the residual mantle, it is possible to calculate a single solution to this problem for a given bulk composition. Of the nine bulk compositions tested, solutions corresponding to CI and LL groups predicted a negative metal fraction and were not considered further. Solutions for enstatite chondrites imply significant oxidation relative to the starting materials and these solutions too are considered unlikely. For the remaining bulk compositions, the relative proportion of crust to bulk silicate is typically in the range 15 to 20% corresponding to crustal thicknesses of 15 to 20 km for a porosity-free Vesta-sized body. The mantle is predicted to be largely dominated by olivine (greater than 85%) for carbonaceous chondrites, but to be a roughly equal mixture of olivine and pyroxene for ordinary chondrite precursors. All bulk compositions have a significant core, but the relative proportions of metal and sulphide can be widely different. Using these data, total core size (metal+ sulphide) and average core densities can be calculated, providing a useful reference frame within which to consider geophysical/gravity data of the Dawn mission. Further to these mass-balance calculations, the MELTS thermodynamic calculator has been used to assess to what extent chondritic bulk compositions can produce Juvinas-like liquids at relevant degrees of partial melting/crystallization. This work will refine acceptable bulk compositions and predict the mineralogy and composition of the associated solid and liquid products over wide ranges of partial melting and crystallization, providing a useful and self-consistent reference frame for interpretation of the data from the VIR and GRaND instruments onboard the Dawn spacecraft.

Toplis, M. J.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Overview of Heat Addition and Efficiency Predictions for an Advanced Stirling Convertor

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and Lockheed Martin Space Systems Company (LMSSC) have been developing the Advanced Stirling Radioisotope Generator (ASRG) for use as a power system for space science missions. This generator would use two high-efficiency Advanced Stirling Convertors (ASCs), developed by Sunpower Inc. and NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC). The ASCs convert thermal energy from a radioisotope heat source into electricity. As part of ground testing of these ASCs, different operating conditions are used to simulate expected mission conditions. These conditions require achieving a particular operating frequency, hot end and cold end temperatures, and specified electrical power output for a given net heat input. Microporous bulk insulation is used in the ground support test hardware to minimize the loss of thermal energy from the electric heat source to the environment. The insulation package is characterized before operation to predict how much heat will be absorbed by the convertor and how much will be lost to the environment during operation. In an effort to validate these predictions, numerous tasks have been performed, which provided a more accurate value for net heat input into the ASCs. This test and modeling effort included: (a) making thermophysical property measurements of test setup materials to provide inputs to the numerical models, (b) acquiring additional test data that was collected during convertor tests to provide numerical models with temperature profiles of the test setup via thermocouple and infrared measurements, (c) using multidimensional numerical models (computational fluid dynamics code) to predict net heat input of an operating convertor, and (d) using validation test hardware to provide direct comparison of numerical results and validate the multidimensional numerical models used to predict convertor net heat input. This effort produced high fidelity ASC net heat input predictions, which were successfully validated using specially designed test hardware enabling measurement of heat transferred through a simulated Stirling cycle. The overall effort and results are discussed.

Wilson, Scott D.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Decadal Prediction Skill in the GEOS-5 Forecast System

A suite of decadal predictions has been conducted with the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office?s GEOS-5 Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model (AOGCM). The hindcasts are initialized every December from 1959 to 2010 following the CMIP5 experimental protocol for decadal predictions. The initial conditions are from a multi-variate ensemble optimal interpolation ocean and sea-ice reanalysis, and from the atmospheric reanalysis (MERRA, the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications) generated using the GEOS-5 atmospheric model. The forecast skill of a three-member-ensemble mean is compared to that of an experiment without initialization but forced with observed CO2. The results show that initialization acts to increase the forecast skill of Northern Atlantic SST compared to the uninitialized runs, with the increase in skill maintained for almost a decade over the subtropical and mid-latitude Atlantic. The annual-mean Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) index is predictable up to a 5-year lead time, consistent with the predictable signal in upper ocean heat content over the Northern Atlantic. While the skill measured by Mean Squared Skill Score (MSSS) shows 50% improvement up to 10-year lead forecast over the subtropical and mid-latitude Atlantic, however, prediction skill is relatively low in the subpolar gyre, due in part to the fact that the spatial pattern of the dominant simulated decadal mode in upper ocean heat content over this region appears to be unrealistic. An analysis of the large-scale temperature budget shows that this is the result of a model bias, implying that realistic simulation of the climatological fields is crucial for skillful decadal forecasts.

Ham, Yoo-Geun↗
NASA NTRS2013

CFL3D, FUN3d, and NSU3D Contributions to the Fifth Drag Prediction Workshop

Results presented at the Fifth Drag Prediction Workshop using CFL3D, FUN3D, and NSU3D are described. These are calculations on the workshop provided grids and drag adapted grids. The NSU3D results have been updated to reflect an improvement to skin friction calculation on skewed grids. FUN3D results generated after the workshop are included for custom participant generated grids and a grid from a previous workshop. Uniform grid refinement at the design condition shows a tight grouping in calculated drag, where the variation in the pressure component of drag is larger than the skin friction component. At this design condition, A fine-grid drag value was predicted with a smaller drag adjoint adapted grid via tetrahedral adaption to a metric and mixed-element subdivision. The buffet study produced larger variation than the design case, which is attributed to large differences in the predicted side-of-body separation extent. Various modeling and discretization approaches had a strong impact on predicted side-of-body separation. This large wing root separation bubble was not observed in wind tunnel tests indicating that more work is necessary in modeling wing root juncture flows to predict experiments.

Park, Michael A.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Predicting Bone Mechanical State During Recovery After Long-Duration Skeletal Unloading Using QCT and Finite Element Modeling

During long-duration missions at the International Space Station, astronauts experience weightlessness leading to skeletal unloading. Unloading causes a lack of a mechanical stimulus that triggers bone cellular units to remove mass from the skeleton. A mathematical system of the cellular dynamics predicts theoretical changes to volume fractions and ash fraction in response to temporal variations in skeletal loading. No current model uses image technology to gather information about a skeletal site s initial properties to calculate bone remodeling changes and then to compare predicted bone strengths with the initial strength. The goal of this study is to use quantitative computed tomography (QCT) in conjunction with a computational model of the bone remodeling process to establish initial bone properties to predict changes in bone mechanics during bone loss and recovery with finite element (FE) modeling. Input parameters for the remodeling model include bone volume fraction and ash fraction, which are both computed from the QCT images. A non-destructive approach to measure ash fraction is also derived. Voxel-based finite element models (FEM) created from QCTs provide initial evaluation of bone strength. Bone volume fraction and ash fraction outputs from the computational model predict changes to the elastic modulus of bone via a two-parameter equation. The modulus captures the effect of bone remodeling and functions as the key to evaluate of changes in strength. Application of this time-dependent modulus to FEMs and composite beam theory enables an assessment of bone mechanics during recovery. Prediction of bone strength is not only important for astronauts, but is also pertinent to millions of patients with osteoporosis and low bone density.

Chang, Katarina L.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Acoustic Prediction Methodology and Test Validation for an Efficient Low-Noise Hybrid Wing Body Subsonic Transport

This investigation was conducted to: (1) Develop a hybrid wing body subsonic transport configuration with noise prediction methods to meet the circa 2007 NASA Subsonic Fixed Wing (SFW) N+2 noise goal of -52 dB cum relative to FAR 36 Stage 3 (-42 dB cum re: Stage 4) while achieving a -25% fuel burned compared to current transports (re :B737/B767); (2) Develop improved noise prediction methods for ANOPP2 for use in predicting FAR 36 noise; (3) Design and fabricate a wind tunnel model for testing in the LaRC 14 x 22 ft low speed wind tunnel to validate noise predictions and determine low speed aero characteristics for an efficient low noise Hybrid Wing Body configuration. A medium wide body cargo freighter was selected to represent a logical need for an initial operational capability in the 2020 time frame. The Efficient Low Noise Hybrid Wing Body (ELNHWB) configuration N2A-EXTE was evolved meeting the circa 2007 NRA N+2 fuel burn and noise goals. The noise estimates were made using improvements in jet noise shielding and noise shielding prediction methods developed by UC Irvine and MIT. From this the Quiet Ultra Integrated Efficient Test Research Aircraft #1 (QUIET-R1) 5.8% wind tunnel model was designed and fabricated.

Kawai, Ronald T.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Modeling and Prediction of the Noise from Non-Axisymmetric Jets

The new source model was combined with the original sound propagation model developed for rectangular jets to produce a new version of the rectangular jet noise prediction code. This code was validated using a set of rectangular nozzles whose geometries were specified by NASA. Nozzles of aspect ratios two, four and eight were studied at jet exit Mach numbers of 0.5, 0.7 and 0.9, for a total of nine cases. Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes solutions for these jets were provided to the contactor for use as input to the code. Quantitative comparisons of the predicted azimuthal and polar directivity of the acoustic spectrum were made with experimental data provided by NASA. The results of these comparisons, along with a documentation of the propagation and source models, were reported in a journal article publication (Ref. 4). The complete set of computer codes and computational modules that make up the prediction scheme, along with a user's guide describing their use and example test cases, was provided to NASA as a deliverable of this task. The use of conformal mapping, along with simplified modeling of the mean flow field, for noise propagation modeling was explored for other nozzle geometries, to support the task milestone of developing methods which are applicable to other geometries and flow conditions of interest to NASA. A model to represent twin round jets using this approach was formulated and implemented. A general approach to solving the equations governing sound propagation in a locally parallel nonaxisymmetric jet was developed and implemented, in aid of the tasks and milestones charged with selecting more exact numerical methods for modeling sound propagation, and developing methods that have application to other nozzle geometries. The method is based on expansion of both the mean-flowdependent coefficients in the governing equation and the Green's function in series of orthogonal functions. The method was coded and tested on two analytically prescribed mean flows which were meant to represent noise reduction concepts being considered by NASA. Testing (Ref. 5) showed that the method was feasible for the types of mean flows of interest in jet noise applications. Subsequently, this method was further developed to allow use of mean flow profiles obtained from a Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) solution of the flow. Preliminary testing of the generalized code was among the last tasks completed under this contract. The stringent noise-reduction goals of NASA's Fundamental Aeronautics Program suggest that, in addition to potentially complex exhaust nozzle geometries, next generation aircraft will also involve tighter integration of the engine with the airframe. Therefore, noise generated and propagated by jet flows in the vicinity of solid surfaces is expected to be quite significant, and reduced-order noise prediction tools will be needed that can deal with such geometries. One important source of noise is that generated by the interaction of a turbulent jet with the edge of a solid surface (edge noise). Such noise is generated, for example, by the passing of the engine exhaust over a shielding surface, such as a wing. Work under this task supported an effort to develop a RANS-based prediction code for edge noise based on an extension of the classical Rapid Distortion Theory (RDT) to transversely sheared base flows (Refs. 6 and 7). The RDT-based theoretical analysis was applied to the generic problem of a turbulent jet interacting with the trailing edge of a flat plate. A code was written to evaluate the formula derived for the spectrum of the noise produced by this interaction and results were compared with data taken at NASA Glenn for a variety of jet/plate configurations and flow conditions (Ref. 8). A longer-term goal of this task was to work toward the development of a high-fidelity model of sound propagation in spatially developing non-axisymmetric jets using direct numerical methods for solving the relevant equations. Working with NASA Glenn Acoustics Branch personnel, numerical methods and boundary conditions appropriate for use in a high-resolution calculation of the full equations governing sound propagation in a steady base flow were identified. Computer codes were then written (by NASA) and tested (by OAI) for an increasingly complex set of flow conditions to validate the methods. The NASA-supplied codes were ported to the High-End Computing resources of the NASA Advanced Supercomputing facility for testing and validation against analytical (where possible) and independent numerical solutions. The cases which were completed during the course of this contract were solutions of the two-dimensional linearized Euler equations with no mean flow, a uniform mean flow and a nonuniform mean flow representative of a parallel flow jet.

Leib, Stewart J.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Advanced Methods for Determining Prediction Uncertainty in Model-Based Prognostics with Application to Planetary Rovers

Prognostics is centered on predicting the time of and time until adverse events in components, subsystems, and systems. It typically involves both a state estimation phase, in which the current health state of a system is identified, and a prediction phase, in which the state is projected forward in time. Since prognostics is mainly a prediction problem, prognostic approaches cannot avoid uncertainty, which arises due to several sources. Prognostics algorithms must both characterize this uncertainty and incorporate it into the predictions so that informed decisions can be made about the system. In this paper, we describe three methods to solve these problems, including Monte Carlo-, unscented transform-, and first-order reliability-based methods. Using a planetary rover as a case study, we demonstrate and compare the different methods in simulation for battery end-of-discharge prediction.

prognosis↗
NASA NTRS2014

Modified Displacement Transfer Functions for Deformed Shape Predictions of Slender Curved Structures with Varying Curvatives

To eliminate the need to use finite-element modeling for structure shape predictions, a new method was invented. This method is to use the Displacement Transfer Functions to transform the measured surface strains into deflections for mapping out overall structural deformed shapes. The Displacement Transfer Functions are expressed in terms of rectilinearly distributed surface strains, and contain no material properties. This report is to apply the patented method to the shape predictions of non-symmetrically loaded slender curved structures with different curvatures up to a full circle. Because the measured surface strains are not available, finite-element analysis had to be used to analytically generate the surface strains. Previously formulated straight-beam Displacement Transfer Functions were modified by introducing the curvature-effect correction terms. Through single-point or dual-point collocations with finite-elementgenerated deflection curves, functional forms of the curvature-effect correction terms were empirically established. The resulting modified Displacement Transfer Functions can then provide quite accurate shape predictions. Also, the uniform straight-beam Displacement Transfer Function was applied to the shape predictions of a section-cut of a generic capsule (GC) outer curved sandwich wall. The resulting GC shape predictions are quite accurate in partial regions where the radius of curvature does not change sharply.

displacement transfer functions↗
NASA NTRS2013

Prediction of Seasonal Climate-induced Variations in Global Food Production

Consumers, including the poor in many countries, are increasingly dependent on food imports and are therefore exposed to variations in yields, production, and export prices in the major food-producing regions of the world. National governments and commercial entities are paying increased attention to the cropping forecasts of major food-exporting countries as well as to their own domestic food production. Given the increased volatility of food markets and the rising incidence of climatic extremes affecting food production, food price spikes may increase in prevalence in future years. Here we present a global assessment of the reliability of crop failure hindcasts for major crops at two lead times derived by linking ensemble seasonal climatic forecasts with statistical crop models. We assessed the reliability of hindcasts (i.e., retrospective forecasts for the past) of crop yield loss relative to the previous year for two lead times. Pre-season yield predictions employ climatic forecasts and have lead times of approximately 3 to 5 months for providing information regarding variations in yields for the coming cropping season. Within-season yield predictions use climatic forecasts with lead times of 1 to 3 months. Pre-season predictions can be of value to national governments and commercial concerns, complemented by subsequent updates from within-season predictions. The latter incorporate information on the most recent climatic data for the upcoming period of reproductive growth. In addition to such predictions, hindcasts using observations from satellites were performed to demonstrate the upper limit of the reliability of crop forecasting.

variations↗
NASA NTRS2013

Prediction of the Arctic Oscillation in Boreal Winter by Dynamical Seasonal Forecasting Systems

This study assesses the prediction skill of the boreal winter Arctic Oscillation (AO) in the state-of-the-art dynamical ensemble prediction systems (EPSs): the UKMO GloSea4, the NCEP CFSv2, and the NASA GEOS-5. Long-term reforecasts made with the EPSs are used to evaluate representations of the AO, and to examine skill scores for the deterministic and probabilistic forecast of the AO index. The reforecasts reproduce the observed changes in the large-scale patterns of the Northern Hemispheric surface temperature, upper-level wind, and precipitation according to the AO phase. Results demonstrate that all EPSs have better prediction skill than the persistence prediction for lead times up to 3-month, suggesting a great potential for skillful prediction of the AO and the associated climate anomalies in seasonal time scale. It is also found that the deterministic and probabilistic forecast skill of the AO in the recent period (1997-2010) is higher than that in the earlier period (1983-1996).

Coupled Models↗
NASA NTRS2014

Grid-Adapted FUN3D Computations for the Second High Lift Prediction Workshop

Contributions of the unstructured Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes code FUN3D to the 2nd AIAA CFD High Lift Prediction Workshop are described, and detailed comparisons are made with experimental data. Using workshop-supplied grids, results for the clean wing configuration are compared with results from the structured code CFL3D Using the same turbulence model, both codes compare reasonably well in terms of total forces and moments, and the maximum lift is similarly over-predicted for both codes compared to experiment. By including more representative geometry features such as slat and flap brackets and slat pressure tube bundles, FUN3D captures the general effects of the Reynolds number variation, but under-predicts maximum lift on workshop-supplied grids in comparison with the experimental data, due to excessive separation. However, when output-based, off-body grid adaptation in FUN3D is employed, results improve considerably. In particular, when the geometry includes both brackets and the pressure tube bundles, grid adaptation results in a more accurate prediction of lift near stall in comparison with the wind-tunnel data. Furthermore, a rotation-corrected turbulence model shows improved pressure predictions on the outboard span when using adapted grids.

Lee-Rausch, E. M.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Predicting Transition from Laminar to Turbulent Flow over a Surface

A prediction of whether a point on a computer-generated surface is adjacent to laminar or turbulent flow is made using a transition prediction technique. A plurality of boundary-layer properties at the point are obtained from a steady-state solution of a fluid flow in a region adjacent to the point. A plurality of instability modes are obtained, each defined by one or more mode parameters. A vector of regressor weights is obtained for the known instability growth rates in a training dataset. For each instability mode in the plurality of instability modes, a covariance vector is determined, which is the covariance of a predicted local growth rate with the known instability growth rates. Each covariance vector is used with the vector of regressor weights to determine a predicted local growth rate at the point. Based on the predicted local growth rates, an n-factor envelope at the point is determined.

Rajnarayan, Dev↗
NASA NTRS2014

Uncertainties in Predicting Rice Yield by Current Crop Models Under a Wide Range of Climatic Conditions

Predicting rice (Oryza sativa) productivity under future climates is important for global food security. Ecophysiological crop models in combination with climate model outputs are commonly used in yield prediction, but uncertainties associated with crop models remain largely unquantified. We evaluated 13 rice models against multi-year experimental yield data at four sites with diverse climatic conditions in Asia and examined whether different modeling approaches on major physiological processes attribute to the uncertainties of prediction to field measured yields and to the uncertainties of sensitivity to changes in temperature and CO2 concentration [CO2]. We also examined whether a use of an ensemble of crop models can reduce the uncertainties. Individual models did not consistently reproduce both experimental and regional yields well, and uncertainty was larger at the warmest and coolest sites. The variation in yield projections was larger among crop models than variation resulting from 16 global climate model-based scenarios. However, the mean of predictions of all crop models reproduced experimental data, with an uncertainty of less than 10 percent of measured yields. Using an ensemble of eight models calibrated only for phenology or five models calibrated in detail resulted in the uncertainty equivalent to that of the measured yield in well-controlled agronomic field experiments. Sensitivity analysis indicates the necessity to improve the accuracy in predicting both biomass and harvest index in response to increasing [CO2] and temperature.

crop-model ensembles↗
NASA NTRS2016

Real-Time Safety Monitoring and Prediction for the National Airspace System

As new operational paradigms and additional aircraft are being introduced into the National Airspace System (NAS), maintaining safety in such a rapidly growing environment becomes more challenging. It is therefore desirable to have both an overview of the current safety of the airspace at different levels of granularity, as well an understanding of how the state of the safety will evolve into the future given the anticipated flight plans, weather forecasts, predicted health of assets in the airspace, and so on. To this end, we have developed a Real-Time Safety Monitoring (RTSM) that first, estimates the state of the NAS using the dynamic models. Then, given the state estimate and a probability distribution of future inputs to the NAS, the framework predicts the evolution of the NAS, i.e., the future state, and analyzes these future states to predict the occurrence of unsafe events. The entire probability distribution of airspace safety metrics is computed, not just point estimates, without significant assumptions regarding the distribution type and or parameters. We demonstrate our overall approach by predicting the occurrence of some unsafe events and show how these predictions evolve in time as flight operations progress.

National Airspace System↗
NASA NTRS2017

Point-Mass Aircraft Trajectory Prediction Using a Hierarchical, Highly-Adaptable Software Design

A highly adaptable and extensible method for predicting four-dimensional trajectories of civil aircraft has been developed. This method, Behavior-Based Trajectory Prediction, is based on taxonomic concepts developed for the description and comparison of trajectory prediction software. A hierarchical approach to the "behavioral" layer of a point-mass model of aircraft flight, a clear separation between the "behavioral" and "mathematical" layers of the model, and an abstraction of the methods of integrating differential equations in the "mathematical" layer have been demonstrated to support aircraft models of different types (in particular, turbojet vs. turboprop aircraft) using performance models at different levels of detail and in different formats, and promise to be easily extensible to other aircraft types and sources of data. The resulting trajectories predict location, altitude, lateral and vertical speeds, and fuel consumption along the flight path of the subject aircraft accurately and quickly, accounting for local conditions of wind and outside air temperature. The Behavior-Based Trajectory Prediction concept was implemented in NASA's Traffic Aware Planner (TAP) flight-optimizing cockpit software application.

Karr, David A.↗