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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Flow and thermal modelling of the argon volume in the DarkSide-20k TPC

The DarkSide-20k dark matter experiment, currently under construction at LNGS, features a dual-phase time projection chamber (TPC) with a ∼ 50 t argon target from an underground well. At this scale, it is crucial to optimise the argon flow pattern for efficient target purification and for fast distribution of internal gaseous calibration sources with lifetimes of the order of hours. To this end, we have performed computational fluid dynamics simulations and heat transfer calculations. The residence time distribution shows that the detector is well-mixed on time-scales of the turnover time (∼ 40 d). Notably, simulations show that despite a two-order-of-magnitude difference between the turnover time and the half-life of 83m Kr of 1.83 h, source atoms have the highest probability to reach the centre of the TPC 13 min after their injection, allowing for a homogeneous distribution before undergoing radioactive decay. We further analyse the thermal aspects of dual-phase operation and define the requirements for the formation of a stable gas pocket on top of the liquid. We find a best-estimate value for the heat transfer rate at the liquid-gas interface of 62 W with an upper limit of 144 W and a minimum gas pocket inlet temperature of 89 K to avoid condensation on the acrylic anode. This study also informs the placement of liquid inlets and outlets in the TPC. The presented techniques are widely applicable to other large-scale, noble-liquid detectors.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Future projections and uncertainty assessment of precipitation extremes in the Korean peninsula from the CMIP5 ensemble

Abstract Projections of changes in extreme climate are sometimes predicted by multimodel ensemble methods that combine forecasts from individual simulation models using weighted averaging. One method to assign weight to each model is the Bayesian model averaging (BMA) in which posterior probability is used. For the cases of extreme climate, the generalized extreme value distribution (GEVD) is typically used. We applied the approach of GEV‐embedded BMA to a series of 35 years of the annual maximum daily precipitation data (both historical data and data gathered from simulation experiments for future periods) over the Korean peninsula as simulated by the models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Simulation data under two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios, namely RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, were used. Observed data and 17 CMIP5 models for 12 gird cells in Korea have been examined to predict future changes in precipitation extremes. A simple regional frequency analysis of pooling observations from three stations in each cell was employed to reduce the estimation variance and local fluctuations. A bias correction technique using the regression‐type transfer function was applied to these simulation data. Return levels spanning over 20 and 50 years, as well as the return periods relative to the reference years (1971–2005), were estimated for two future periods, namely Period 1 (2021–2050) and Period 2 (2066–2095). From these analyses, relative increase observed in the spatially averaged 20‐year (50‐year) return level was approximately 23% (16%) and 45% (36%) in the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 experiments, respectively, by the end of the 21st century. We concluded that extreme rainfalls will likely occur two times and four times more frequently in the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, as compared to in the reference years by the end of the 21st century.

Lee, Youngsaeng↗
DOE OSTI2021

Total absorption spectroscopy of the β decay of 101,102 Zr and 109 Tc

The β decay of 101,102 Zr and 109 Tc was studied using the technique of total absorption spectroscopy. The experiment was performed at the National Superconducting Cyclotron Laboratory using the Summing NaI(Tl) (SuN) detector in the first-ever application of total absorption spectroscopy with a fast beam produced via projectile fragmentation. The β -decay feeding intensity and Gamow-Teller transition strength distributions were extracted for these three decays. The extracted distributions were compared to three different quasiparticle random-phase approximation (QRPA) models based on different mean-field potentials. A comparison with calculations from one of the QRPA models was performed to learn about the ground-state shape of the parent nucleus. For 101 Zr and 102 Zr, calculations assuming a pure shape configuration (oblate or prolate) were not able to reproduce the extracted distributions. These results may indicate that some type of mixture between oblate and prolate shapes is necessary to reproduce the extracted distributions. For 109 Tc, a comparison of the extracted distributions with QRPA calculations suggests a dominant oblate configuration. The other two QRPA models are commonly used to provide β-decay properties in r-process network calculations. This work shows the importance of making comparisons between the experimental and theoretical β-decay distributions, rather than just half-lives and β-delayed neutron emission probabilities, as close to the r-process path as possible.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

No Evidence for Orbital Clustering in the Extreme Trans-Neptunian Objects

The apparent clustering in longitude of perihelion piv and ascending node Ω of extreme trans-Neptunian objects (ETNOs) has been attributed to the gravitational effects of an unseen 5–10 Earth-mass planet in the outer solar system. To investigate how selection bias may contribute to this clustering, we consider 14 ETNOs discovered by the Dark Energy Survey, the Outer Solar System Origins Survey, and the survey of Sheppard and Trujillo. Using each survey's published pointing history, depth, and TNO tracking selections, we calculate the joint probability that these objects are consistent with an underlying parent population with uniform distributions in $\bar{w}$ and Ω. We find that the mean scaled longitude of perihelion and orbital poles of the detected ETNOs are consistent with a uniform population at a level between 17% and 94% and thus conclude that this sample provides no evidence for angular clustering.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Estimating Cosmological Constraints from Galaxy Cluster Abundance using Simulation-Based Inference

Inferring the values and uncertainties of cosmological parameters in a cosmology model is of paramount importance for modern cosmic observations. In this paper, we use the simulation-based inference (SBI) approach to estimate cosmological constraints from a simplified galaxy cluster observation analysis. Using data generated from the Quijote simulation suite and analytical models, we train a machine learning algorithm to learn the probability function between cosmological parameters and the possible galaxy cluster observables. The posterior distribution of the cosmological parameters at a given observation is then obtained by sampling the predictions from the trained algorithm. Our results show that the SBI method can successfully recover the truth values of the cosmological parameters within the 2σ limit for this simplified galaxy cluster analysis, and acquires similar posterior constraints obtained with a likelihood-based Markov Chain Monte Carlo method, the current state-of the-art method used in similar cosmological studies.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2025

Elastic dijet production in electron scattering on a longitudinally polarized proton at small x : A portal to orbital angular momentum distributions

We calculate the elastic production of dijets from electron collisions with a longitudinally polarized proton target at small values of the Bjorken x variable. Building on the pioneering proposals of Hatta [Gluon orbital angular momentum at small- x , .] and Bhattacharya [Signature of the gluon orbital angular momentum, ., Probing the quark orbital angular momentum at electron-ion colliders using exclusive π 0 production, ., and Exploring orbital angular momentum and spin-orbit correlation for gluons at the Electron-Ion Collider, .] for measuring the quark and gluon orbital angular momentum (OAM) distributions, our focus is on both the longitudinal double spin asymmetry (DSA) and longitudinal single spin asymmetry (SSA). We compute the numerators of these asymmetries in the small- x formalism of the light-cone operator treatment. Utilizing the small- x expressions for the OAM distributions derived earlier in Kovchegov and Manley [Orbital angular momentum at small x revisited, .], we demonstrate that the DSA provides a robust probe for both the quark and gluon OAM distributions within the proton. In contrast, we find that while the SSA is also sensitive to the OAM distributions, extraction of the latter from the SSA would require new developments in small- x theory and phenomenology, and is probably not feasible at this point in time. These findings highlight the potential of DSA measurements in elastic dijet production at the future Electron-Ion Collider to provide the first-ever direct access to the quark and gluon OAM distributions at small x , paving the way for new insights into the proton spin puzzle. Published by the American Physical Society 2025

Kovchegov, Yuri V. (ORCID:0000000169909173)↗
DOE OSTI2023

Formal Experimentation and Analysis of Handheld RFID Readers as a Tool for Nuclear Material Accounting

Commercial, off-the-shelf Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) systems have been successfully deployed for inventory tracking in numerous industries, but their viability in the tracking of complex environments containing nuclear material is less understood. Of primary interest in this setting is a RFID tracking system for nuclear material accounting which can reliably identify as many tags as possible with high accuracy, while also reducing an operator’s exposure to radiation. In this work, we develop a formal statistical approach to identify relevant handheld RFID reader settings which optimize tagging performance. To achieve this goal, we design a full factorial split-plot experiment for a static shelf configuration scene with 50 randomly placed nuclear material containers affixed with RFID tags. We use Bayesian inference to fit a second-order response surface model which expresses the probability of a successful match for each container as a function of the experimental factors. Such effects are allowed to vary across individual containers and the containers’ population in its entirety to estimate overall effects. Uncertainties of estimates and predictions are quantified via their corresponding posterior distributions. Following extensive model checking and validation, the fitted model is used to identify experimental factors which maximize matching probabilities at both the container-level and for the full shelf configuration scene. We also analyze sensitivity of performance to relevant factors.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Estimating the Likelihood of GHG Concentration Scenarios From Probabilistic Integrated Assessment Model Simulations

The climate scenarios that form the basis for current climate risk assessments have no assigned probabilities, and this impedes the analysis of future climate risks. This paper proposes an approach to estimate the probability of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) concentration scenarios used in key climate change modeling experiments. It computes the CO 2 emissions compatible with the concentrations prescribed by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and CMIP6 experiments. The distribution of these compatible cumulative emissions is interpreted as the likelihood of future emissions given a concentration pathway. Using Bayesian analysis, the probability of each pathway can be estimated from a probabilistic sample of future emissions. The approach is demonstrated with five probabilistic CO 2 emission simulation ensembles from four Integrated Assessment Models (IAM), leading to independent estimates of the likelihood of the CO 2 concentration of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP). Results suggest that SSP5-8.5 is unlikely for the second half of the 21st century, but offer no clear consensus on which of the remaining scenarios is most likely. Estimates of likelihoods of CO 2 concentrations associated with RCP and SSP scenarios are affected by sampling errors, differences in emission sources simulated by the IAMs, and a lack of a common experimental framework for IAM simulations. These shortcomings, along with a small IAM ensemble size, limit the applicability of the results presented here. Novel joint IAM and the Earth System Model experiments are needed to deliver actionable probabilistic climate risk assessments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating design safety margins in the American Society of Mechanical Engineers graphite core components design-by-analysis assessments

Graphite is an important material being used for core components in next-generation high-temperature gas-cooled nuclear reactors. The selection of graphite grade for a specific Designer is a complex task, dependent on reactor conditions, component functionality, and required reliability. The American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) provides two semi-probabilistic design-by-analysis assessments to evaluate graphite core components against design reliability targets. The simplified assessment uses a 2-parameter Weibull distribution to describe the graphite grade’s tensile-strength distribution to establish component stress limits. The full assessment uses the 3-parameter Weibull distribution and a modified Weakest-Link Theory approach to calculate a component design probability of failure. The paper defines recommended assessment rules, which are the as-written simplified assessment and the full assessment with parameter lower bounds, the modulus update with threshold reduction, and the 2027 grouping rules. Code rules are applied to three grades: 2114, IG-110, and NBG-18. The baseline margin calculation is developed using the experimental tensile dogbone specimen. Percent margin is defined as the percent reduction in the median experimental load to obtain the allowable load per ASME assessments. Under the recommended rules, the SRC–1 margin in the simplified assessment ranged from 40.2 % to 52.7 % among the grades in this study and from 36.1 % to 49.8 % in the full assessment. The full assessment only decreases the margins by 2.5–4.5 % for the SRC-1 components and 0–1.5 % for the SRC-2 components for this baseline case. Margin is inversely related to material median strength (i.e., the strongest grade, 2114, has the lowest margin).

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Modeling q 95 windows for the suppression of edge localized modes by resonant magnetic perturbations in the DIII-D tokamak

A toroidal asymptotic matching model of the response of a tokamak plasma to a static resonant magnetic perturbation (RMP) is used to simulate the n = 3 RMP-induced edge-localized-mode-suppression windows in q 95 that are evident when the plasma current is slowly ramped in DIII-D discharge #145380. All quantities employed in the simulation are derived from experimental measurements, apart from the neutral particle data. Three cases are considered. In the first case, the natural frequencies of tearing modes resonant in the plasma are determined by the ion flows at the corresponding resonant surfaces, which is the prediction of nonlinear tearing mode theory. In the second case, the natural frequencies are determined by the local E x B velocities at the resonant surfaces. In the third case, the natural frequencies are determined by the electron flows at the resonant surfaces, which is the prediction of linear tearing mode theory. The second case gives the best agreement between the simulations and the experimental observations. The first and third cases only lead to partial agreement between the simulations and the observations. In the first case, the lack of complete agreement may be a consequence of using an inaccurate assumption for the neutral particle distribution in the pedestal. In the third case, the lack of complete agreement is probably due to the fact that the response of a tokamak plasma to an RMP is not accurately described by linear tearing mode theory.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Targeted engineering of camelina and pennycress seeds for ultrahigh accumulation of acetyl-TAG

Acetyl-TAG (3-acetyl-1,2-diacylglycerol), unique triacylglycerols (TAG) possessing an acetate group at the sn -3 position, exhibit valuable properties, such as reduced viscosity and freezing points. Previous attempts to engineer acetyl-TAG production in oilseed crops did not achieve the high levels found in naturally producing Euonymus seeds. Here, we demonstrate the successful generation of camelina and pennycress transgenic lines accumulating nearly pure acetyl-TAG at 93 mol% and 98 mol%, respectively. These ultrahigh acetyl-TAG synthesizing lines were created using gene-edited FATTY ACID ELONGASE1 ( FAE1 ) mutant lines as an improved genetic background to increase levels of acetyl-CoA available for acetyl-TAG synthesis mediated by the expression of EfDAcT, a high-activity diacylglycerol acetyltransferase isolated from Euonymus fortunei . Combining EfDAcT expression with suppression of the competing TAG-synthesizing enzyme DGAT1 further enhanced acetyl-TAG accumulation. These ultrahigh levels of acetyl-TAG exceed those in earlier engineered oilseeds and are equivalent or greater than those in Euonymus seeds. Imaging of lipid localization in transgenic seeds revealed that the low amounts of residual TAG were mostly confined to the embryonic axis. Similar spatial distributions of specific TAG and acetyl-TAG molecular species, as well as their probable diacylglycerol (DAG) precursors, provide additional evidence that acetyl-TAG and TAG are both synthesized from the same tissue-specific DAG pools. Remarkably, this ultrahigh production of acetyl-TAG in transgenic seeds exhibited minimal negative effects on seed properties, highlighting the potential for production of designer oils required for economical biofuel industries.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2024

3D Multiresolution Velocity Model Fusion with Probability Graphical Models

ABSTRACT The variability in spatial resolution of seismic velocity models obtained via tomographic methodologies is attributed to many factors, including inversion strategies, ray-path coverage, and data integrity. Integration of such models, with distinct resolutions, is crucial during the refinement of community models, thereby enhancing the precision of ground-motion simulations. Toward this goal, we introduce the probability graphical model (PGM), combining velocity models with heterogeneous resolutions and nonuniform data point distributions. The PGM integrates data relations across varying resolution subdomains, enhancing detail within low-resolution (LR) domains by utilizing information and prior knowledge from high-resolution (HR) subdomains through a maximum posterior problem. Assessment of efficacy, utilizing both 2D and 3D velocity models—consisting of synthetic checkerboard models and a fault-zone model from Ridgecrest, California—demonstrates noteworthy improvements in accuracy, compared to state-of-the-art fusion techniques. Specifically, we find reductions of 30% and 44% in computed travel-time residuals for 2D and 3D models, respectively, as compared to conventional smoothing techniques. Unlike conventional methods, the PGM’s adaptive weight selection facilitates preserving and learning details from complex, nonuniform HR models and applies the enhancements to the LR background domain.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Resilient Integrated Resource Planning Framework for Transmission Systems: Analysis and Optimization

This article presents a resilient Integrated Resource Planning (IRP) framework designed for transmission systems, with a specific focus on analyzing and optimizing responses to High-Impact Low-Probability (HILP) events. The framework aims to improve the resilience of transmission networks in the face of extreme events by prioritizing the assessment of events with significant consequences. Unlike traditional reliability-based planning methods that average the impact of various outage durations, this work adopts a metric based on the proximity of outage lines to generators to select HILP events. The system’s baseline resilience is evaluated by calculating load curtailment in different parts of the network resulting from HILP outage events. The transmission network is represented as an undirected graph. Graph-theoretic techniques are used to identify islands with or without generators, potentially forming segmented grids or microgrids. This article introduces Expected Load Curtailment (ELC) as a metric to quantify the system’s resilience. The framework allows for the re-evaluation of system resilience by integrating additional generating resources to achieve desired resilience levels. Optimization is performed in the re-evaluation stage to determine the optimal placement of distributed energy resources (DERs) for enhancing resilience, i.e., minimizing ELC. Case studies on the IEEE 24-bus system illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed framework. In the broader context, this resilient IRP framework aligns with energy sustainability goals by promoting robust and resilient transmission networks, as the optimal placement of DERs for resilience enhancement not only strengthens the system’s ability to withstand and recover from disruptions but also contributes to efficient resource utilization, advancing the overarching goal of energy sustainability.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Load-Displacement Relation and Gap Distribution Between Rough Surfaces: Partial Differential Equations Approach

We develop a theoretical model to predict the load-displacement relation and probability density function for gaps between contacting rough surfaces. We derive partial differential equations from the previous model (Joe et al., 2018), and extend them to the non-adhesive contact problem. The predictions of the present theory are compared with numerical results using the Green's function molecular dynamics algorithm, and a good agreement is obtained.

adhesion↗
DOE OSTI2023

Modular chip-integrated photonic control of artificial atoms in diamond waveguides

A central goal in creating long-distance quantum networks and distributed quantum computing is the development of interconnected and individually controlled qubit nodes. Atom-like emitters in diamond have emerged as a leading system for optically networked quantum memories, motivating the development of visible-spectrum, multi-channel photonic integrated circuit (PIC) systems for scalable atom control. However, it has remained an open challenge to realize optical programmability with a qubit layer that can achieve high optical detection probability over many optical channels. Here, we address this problem by introducing a modular architecture of piezoelectrically actuated atom-control PICs (APICs) and artificial atoms embedded in diamond nanostructures designed for high-efficiency free-space collection. The high-speed four-channel APIC is based on a splitting tree mesh with triple-phase shifter Mach–Zehnder interferometers. This design simultaneously achieves optically broadband operation at visible wavelengths, high-fidelity switching (>40dB) at low voltages, submicrosecond modulation timescales (>30MHz), and minimal channel-to-channel crosstalk for repeatable optical pulse carving. Via a reconfigurable free-space interconnect, we use the APIC to address single silicon vacancy color centers in individual diamond waveguides with inverse tapered couplers, achieving efficient single photon detection probabilities (∼15%) and second-order autocorrelation measurements g (2) (0)<0.14 for all channels. The modularity of this distributed APIC–quantum memory system simplifies the quantum control problem, potentially enabling further scaling to thousands of channels.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Blockchain for Fault-Tolerant Grid Operations Version 2.0

This report explores the potential of distributed ledger technology (DLT) as a transformative tool to enhance fault-tolerant operations in electrical distribution systems. Leveraging DLT's core attributes, including an immutable decentralized ledger, distributed consensus mechanisms, and state replication capabilities, this study focuses on three critical use cases. A central aspect of this research centers on the utilization of a consensus-driven ledger, providing actors within the system, such as distributed resources, with access to a reliable data repository. This empowers these actors to collaborate effectively and make informed decisions, all securely recorded on the blockchain. The first use case concentrates on data configuration, utilizing mathematical criteria---particularly, the chi-squared test for gross error detection---to identify trustworthy sensors for advanced decision-making. Building upon this foundation of trust, the second use case, topology identification, accurately determines circuit breaker states, unveiling the distribution network's topology. Ultimately, the third use case leverages this trust to execute switching actions, reconfiguring feeders and restoring power to disconnected customers after fault events. The concept of trust serves as a cornerstone in this approach, marking a departure from traditional fault location, isolation, and service restoration (FLISR) methods. Additionally, the blockchain-based architecture introduces decentralization, empowering disconnected areas to make autonomous decisions, even when communication with a central control center is disrupted. The primary contributions of this report are twofold: (1) a novel approach for evaluating distribution system voltage areas while preserving data ownership and (2) the implementation of interactions between distribution network areas using the actor model. Unlike the previous sequential approach for evaluating the area connection voltages, which required a radial network topology, this study's area model reduction enables a more versatile approach. The area model reduction addresses issues of prolonged data waiting times and multiple points of failure within the previous approach. Notably, the presented evaluation for the reduced network model area connection reveals a significant increase in the differences in voltage magnitudes. Simulation and evaluation of area agents across four distinct cases elucidate the area-level interaction behavior during a fault event. Simulations demonstrate that the proposed distributed FLISR (DFLISR) approach can successfully restore service to an affected area. Varying message delays and message loss probabilities in each simulation case underscore their impacts on restoration times, ranging from 3 min and 32 s to 6 min and 19 s. In contrast, power is not restored in an area in one of our simulation cases.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

The dark energy survey 5-yr photometrically identified type Ia supernovae

ABSTRACT As part of the cosmology analysis using Type Ia Supernovae (SN Ia) in the Dark Energy Survey (DES), we present photometrically identified SN Ia samples using multiband light curves and host galaxy redshifts. For this analysis, we use the photometric classification framework SuperNNovatrained on realistic DES-like simulations. For reliable classification, we process the DES SN programme (DES-SN) data and introduce improvements to the classifier architecture, obtaining classification accuracies of more than 98 per cent on simulations. This is the first SN classification to make use of ensemble methods, resulting in more robust samples. Using photometry, host galaxy redshifts, and a classification probability requirement, we identify 1863 SNe Ia from which we select 1484 cosmology-grade SNe Ia spanning the redshift range of 0.07 < z < 1.14. We find good agreement between the light-curve properties of the photometrically selected sample and simulations. Additionally, we create similar SN Ia samples using two types of Bayesian Neural Network classifiers that provide uncertainties on the classification probabilities. We test the feasibility of using these uncertainties as indicators for out-of-distribution candidates and model confidence. Finally, we discuss the implications of photometric samples and classification methods for future surveys such as Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2023

Detecting deviations from Gaussianity in high-redshift CMB lensing maps

ABSTRACT While the probability density function of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) convergence field approximately follows a Gaussian distribution, primordial non-Gaussianities, and small contributions from structures at low redshifts make the overall distribution slightly non-Gaussian. Some of the late-time component can be modelled using the distribution of galaxies and subtracted off from the original CMB lensing map to produce a map of matter distribution at high redshifts. Using this high-redshift mass map, we are able to directly study the early phases of structure formation. In this work, we forecast the detectability of signatures of non-Gaussianity due to non-linear structure formation at z > 1.2. Assuming the optimal case of no systematics, we find that it is challenging to detect such signatures in current surveys, but future experiments such as the deep field of CMB-S4 will be able to make detections of ∼7σ.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗