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Luciola Hypertelescope Space Observatory

Luciola is a large (one kilometer) "multi-aperture densified-pupil imaging interferometer", or "hypertelescope" employing many small apertures, rather than a few large ones, for obtaining direct snapshot images with a high information content. A diluted collector mirror, deployed in space as a flotilla of small mirrors, focuses a sky image which is exploited by several beam-combiner spaceships. Each contains a pupil densifier micro-lens array to avoid the diffractive spread and image attenuation caused by the small sub-apertures. The elucidation of hypertelescope imaging properties during the last decade has shown that many small apertures tend to be far more efficient, regarding the science yield, than a few large ones providing a comparable collecting area. For similar underlying physical reasons, radio-astronomy has also evolved in the direction of many-antenna systems such as the proposed Low Frequency Array having hundreds of thousands of individual receivers . With its high limiting magnitude, reaching the mv=30 limit of HST when 100 collectors of 25cm will match its collecting area, high-resolution direct imaging in multiple channels, broad spectral coverage from the 1200 Angstrom ultra-violet to the 20 micron infra-red, apodization, coronagraphic and spectroscopic capabilities, the proposed hypertelescope observatory addresses very broad and innovative science covering different areas of ESA s Cosmic Vision program. In the initial phase, a focal spacecraft covering the UV to near IR spectral range of EMCCD photon-counting cameras ( currently 200 to 1000nm), will image details on the surface of many stars, as well as their environment, including multiple stars and clusters. Spectra will be obtained for each resel. It will also image neutron star, black-hole and micro-quasar candidates, as well as active galactic nuclei, quasars, gravitational lenses, and other Cosmic Vision targets observable with the initial modest crowding limit. With subsequent upgrade missions, the spectral coverage can be extended from 120nm to 20 microns, using four detectors carried by two to four focal spacecraft. The number of collector mirrors in the flotilla can also be increased from 12 to 100 and possibly 1,000. The imaging and spectroscopy of habitable exoplanets in the mid infra-red then becomes feasible once the collecting area reaches 6m2 , using a specialized mid infra-red focal spacecraft. Calculations ( Boccaletti et al., 2000) have shown that hypertelescope coronagraphy has unequalled sensitivity for detecting, at mid infra-red wavelengths, faint exoplanets within the exo-zodiacal glare. Later upgrades will enable the more difficult imaging and spectroscopy of these faint objects at visible wavelengths, using refined techniques of adaptive coronagraphy (Labeyrie. & Le Coroller, 2004). Together, the infra-red and visible spectral data carry rich information on the possible presence of life. The close environment of the central black-hole in the Milky Way will be imageable with unprecedented detail in the near infra-red . Cosmological imaging of remote galaxies at the limit of the known universe is also expected, from the ultra-violet to the near infra-red, following the first upgrade, and with greatly increasing sensitivity through successive upgrades. These areas will indeed greatly benefit from the upgrades, in terms of dynamic range, limiting complexity of the objects to be imaged, size of the elementary Direct Imaging Field , and limiting magnitude, approaching that of an 8-meter space telescope when 1000 apertures of 25cm are installed. Similar gains will occur for addressing fundamental problems in physics and cosmology, particularly when observing neutron stars and black holes, single or binary, including the giant black holes, with accretion disks and jets, in active galactic nuclei beyond the Milky Way. Gravitational lensing and micro-lensing patterns, including time-variable patterns and perhaps millisecond lensing flasheshich may be beamed by diffraction from sub-stellar masses at sub-parsec distances (Labeyrie, 1994) , will also be observable initially in the favourable cases, and upgrades will greatly improve the number of observable objects. The observability of gravitational waves emitted by binary lensing masses, in the form of modulated lensing patterns, is a debated issue ( Ragazzoni et al., 2003) but will also become addressable observationally. The technology readiness of Luciola approaches levels where low-orbit testing and stepwise implementation will become feasible in the 2015-2025 time frame. For the following decades beyond 2020, once accurate formation flying techniques will be mastered, much larger hypertelescopes such as the proposed 100km Exo-Earth Imager and the 100,000 km Neutron Star Imager should also become feasible. Luciola is therefore also seen as a precursor toward such very powerful instruments.

Labeyrie, Antoine↗

A two-dimensional numerical study of the magneto-Rayleigh–Taylor instability with FLASH: Application to the staged Z-pinch concept

Magnetically driven implosions involving a liner collapsing onto a target are inherently vulnerable to the magneto-Rayleigh–Taylor instability (MRTI). Among the various approaches proposed to achieve fusion conditions within the target, the staged Z-pinch (SZP) concept employs a high-Z liner, the advantages of which remain an active area of investigation. Consequently, ongoing design optimization efforts are essential, while critical physical processes such as magnetic field (B-field) diffusion and radiation transport increase the complexity of required simulations. In this study, we utilize the new capabilities of the FLASH code to simulate in 2D, for the first time using this code, staged Z-pinch configurations (designated SZP1 and SZP1*), focusing on their stability. First, a comparison of simulation results with theoretical predictions of MRTI growth provide new insights into the often-overlooked influences of high mesh resolution and initial perturbation seeding on instability dynamics. These findings then lead to a discussion on potential improvements for future SZP experiments. These include the use of an axial B-field stabilization and the optimization of radiation transport processes during the implosion. The results presented herein establish the framework for simulating multi-dimensional Z pinches using the FLASH code and pave the way for the development of innovative experimental configurations leveraging its advanced simulation capabilities.

Adaptive mesh refinement↗

Spaceborne Remote Sensing of Aerosol Type: Global Distribution, Model Evaluation and Translation into Chemical Speciation

It is essential to evaluate and refine aerosol classification methods applied to passive satellite remote sensing. We have developed an aerosol classification algorithm (called Specified Clustering and Mahalanobis Classification, SCMC) that assigns an aerosol type to multi-parameter retrievals by spaceborne, airborne or ground-based passive remote sensing instruments [1]. The aerosol types identified by our scheme are pure dust, polluted dust, urban-industrialdeveloped economy, urban-industrialdeveloping economy, dark biomass smoke, light biomass smoke and pure marine. We apply the SCMC method to inversions from the ground-based AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET [2]) and retrievals from the space-borne Polarization and Directionality of Earths Reflectances instrument (POLDER, [3]). The POLDER retrievals that we use differ from the standard POLDER retrievals [4] as they make full use of multi-angle, multispectral polarimetric data [5]. We analyze agreement in the aerosol types inferred from both AERONET and POLDER and evaluate GEOS-Chem [6] simulations over the globe. Finally, we use in-situ observations from the SEAC4RS airborne field experiment to bridge the gap between remote sensing-inferred qualitative SCMC aerosol types and their corresponding quantitative chemical speciation. We apply the SCMC method to airborne in-situ observations from the NASA Langley Aerosol Research Group Experiment (LARGE, [7]) and the Differential Aerosol Sizing and Hygroscopicity Spectrometer Probe (DASH-SP, [8]) instruments; we then relate each coarsely defined SCMC type to a sum of percentage of individual aerosol species, using in-situ observations from the Particle Analysis by Laser Mass Spectrometry (PALMS, [9]), the Soluble Acidic Gases and Aerosol (SAGA, [10]), and the High - Resolution Time - of - Flight Aerosol Mass Spectrometer (HR ToF AMS, [11]).

airborne↗

The Far Infrared Lines of OH as Molecular Cloud Diagnostics

Future IR missions should give some priority to high resolution spectroscopic observations of the set of far-IR transitions of OH. There are 15 far-IR lines arising between the lowest eight rotational levels of OH, and ISO detected nine of them. Furthermore, ISO found the OH lines, sometimes in emission and sometimes in absorption, in a wide variety of galactic and extragalactic objects ranging from AGB stars to molecular clouds to active galactic nuclei and ultra-luminous IR galaxies. The ISO/LWS Fabry-Perot resolved the 119 m doublet line in a few of the strong sources. This set of OH lines provides a uniquely important diagnostic for many reasons: the lines span a wide wavelength range (28.9 m to 163.2 m); the transitions have fast radiative rates; the abundance of the species is relatively high; the IR continuum plays an important role as a pump; the contribution from shocks is relatively minor; and, not least, the powerful centimeter-wave radiation from OH allows comparison with radio and VLBI datasets. The problem is that the large number of sensitive free parameters, and the large optical depths of the strongest lines, make modeling the full set a difficult job. The SWAS montecarlo radiative transfer code has been used to analyze the ISO/LWS spectra of a number of objects with good success, including in both the lines and the FIR continuum; the DUSTY radiative transfer code was used to insure a self-consistent continuum. Other far IR lines including those from H2O, CO, and [OI] are also in the code. The OH lines all show features which future FIR spectrometers should be able to resolve, and which will enable further refinements in the details of each cloud's structure. Some examples are given, including the case of S140, for which independent SWAS data found evidence for bulk flows.

Smith, Howard A.↗

Characterization of the Triassic Newark Basin of New York and New Jersey for Geologic Storage of Carbon Dioxide

The project Characterization of the Triassic Newark Basin of New York and New Jersey for Geologic Storage of Carbon Dioxide is one of 9 site characterization projects that were implemented as part of ARRA (American Recovery and Reinvestment Act). Data from this project was used to improve resolution of data in NATCARB in the area of study. Data related to this study has already been incorporated in NATCARB Atlas. Sandia Technologies, LLC, and co-investigator Conrad Geoscience Corporation, examined the potential for large-scale, permanent CO2 storage in sedimentary strata within the Newark Rift Basin. The Newark Rift Basin underlies an industrialized, developed region comprising parts of New York, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania. The project characterized and investigated the suitability of Triassic age sedimentary formations for potential geologic CO2 storage. The project team drilled and cored two test wells to define the sedimentary geologic formations underlying the basin and to document or reach basement rock. With this geologic characterization phase, an integration of seismic, geologic, borehole, and formation core results provided a higher resolution assessment of CO2 storage potential. The Stockton Formation is known to be a potentially favorable geologic storage formation in the basin. In 2011, the 1-NYSTA Tandem Lot stratigraphic test well was drilled to a depth of 6,855 feet in the northern portion of the Newark Basin in southern New York State. Approximately 9 miles south-southeast on the Lamont Doherty Campus, TW-4 was drilled and cored in 2013 to a depth of 1,802 feet and contacted apparent igneous basement at a depth of 1,712 feet. Both wells penetrated the Palisades Sill ranging from 800 feet thick in the eastern well to approximately 1,800 feet in thickness at the 1-NYSTA Tandem Lot deep drill site. A diabase sill can provide an excellent seal and dense confining layer for potential CO2 storage reservoirs and flow layers that are situated beneath it within the Stockton Sandstone. The Stockton Sandstone was encountered beneath the sill in the TW-4 well on the Lamont campus, and data integration suggests that it was likely observed near total depth in the deep 1-NYSTA Tandem Lot well. The test wells confirm and define reservoirs are present beneath the sill and offer CO2 storage potential. The integration of geologic and reservoir characterization of well logs, formation cores, and formation fluids indicated Triassic age lacustrine playa lake and mudbank shales of the Upper Passaic Group can provide an effective seal for the porous and permeable underlying sandstone reservoir layers. This project acquired seismic data, drilled borehole well logs, acquired core samples, and integrated these findings to provide a better understanding of the subsurface geologic formations in the Newark Rift Basin. These findings have contributed to a higher degree of accuracy in predicting potential geologic storage opportunities, while refining geologic storage capacity estimates for the indicated reservoirs and flow units.

.las↗

Fractional Snowcover Estimates from Earth Observing System (EOS) Terra and Aqua Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)

The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on the NASA Earth Observing System (EOS) Terra and Aqua missions has shown considerable capability for mapping snowcover. The typical approach that has used, along with other criteria, the Normalized Snow Difference Index (NDSI) that takes the difference between 500 meter observations at 1.64 micrometers (MODIS band 6) and 0.555 micrometers (MODIS band 4) over the sum of these observations to determine whether MODIS pixels are snowcovered or not in mapping the extent of snowcover. For many hydrological and climate studies using remote sensing of snowcover, it is desirable to assess if the MODIS snowcover observations could not be enhanced by providing the fraction of snowcover in each MODIS observation (pixel). Pursuant to this objective studies have been conducted to assess whether there is sufficient "signal%o in the NDSI parameter to provide useful estimates of fractional snowcover in each MODIS 500 meter pixel. To accomplish this objective high spatial resolution (30 meter) Landsat snowcover observations were used and co-registered with MODIS 500 meter pixels. The NDSI approach was used to assess whether a Landsat pixel was or was not snowcovered. Then the number of snowcovered Landsat pixels within a MODIS pixel was used to determine the fraction of snowcover within each MODIS pixel. The e results were then used to develop statistical relationships between the NDSI value for each 500 meter MODIS pixel and the fraction of snowcover in the MODIS pixel. Such studies were conducted for three widely different areas covered by Landsat scenes in Alaska, Russia, and the Quebec Province in Canada. The statistical relationships indicate that a 10 percent accuracy can be attained. The variability in the statistical relationship for the three areas was found to be remarkably similar (-0.02 for mean error and less than 0.01 for mean absolute error and standard deviation). Independent tests of the relationships were accomplished by taking the relationship of fractional snow-cover to NDSI from one area (e.g., Alaska) and testing it on the other two areas (e.g. Russia and Quebec). Again the results showed that fractional snow-cover can be estimated to 10 percent. The results have been shown to have advantages over other published fractional snowcover algorithms applied to MODIS data. Most recently the fractional snow-cover algorithm has been applied using 500-meter observations over the state of Colorado for a period spanning 25 days. The results exhibit good behavior in mapping the spatial and temporal variability in snowcover over that 25-day period. Overall these studies indicate that robust estimates of fractional snow-cover can be attained using the NDSI parameter over areas extending in size from watersheds relatively large compared to MODIS pixels to global land cover. Other refinements to this approach as well as different approaches are being examined for mapping fractional snow-cover using MODIS observations.

Salomonson, Vincent V.↗

Shallow Lunar Seismic Activity and the Current Stress State of the Moon

A vast, global network of more than 3200 lobate thrust fault scarps has been revealed in high resolution Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter Camera (LROC) images. The fault scarps very young, less than 50 Ma, based on their small scale and crisp appearance, crosscutting relations with small-diameter impact craters, and rates of infilling of associated small, shallow graben and may be actively forming today. The population of young thrust fault scarps provides a window into the recent stress state of the Moon and offers insight into the origin of global lunar stresses. The distribution of orientations of the fault scarps is non-random, inconsistent with isotropic stresses from late-stage global contraction as the sole source of stress Modeling shows that tidal stresses contribute significantly to the current stress state of the lunar crust. Tidal stresses (orbital recession and diurnal tides) superimposed on stresses from global contraction result in non-isotropic compressional stress and thrust faults consistent with lobate scarp orientations. Stresses due to orbital recession do not change with orbital position, thus it is with the addition of diurnal stresses that peak stresses are reached. At apogee, diurnal and recession stresses are most compressive near the tidal axis, while at perigee they are most compressive 90 degrees away from the tidal axis. Coseismic slip events on currently active thrust faults are expected to be triggered when peak stresses are reached. Analysis of the timing of the 28 the shallow moonquakes recorded by the Apollo seismic network shows that 19 indeed occur when the Moon is closer to apogee, while only 9 shallow events occur when the Moon is closer to perigee. Here we show the results of relocating the shallow moonquake using an algorithm designed for sparse networks to better constrain their epicentral locations in order to compare them with stress models. The model for the current stress state of the Moon is refined by investigating the contribution of polar wander.

siesmology↗

Breakup dynamics in a pressure-swirl injector for urea-water solution applications: A computational study

The co-optimization of in-cylinder combustion and after-treatment technology has become a major aspect in engine design and development, with the goal of meeting the increasingly restrictive emission regulations in the transportation industry. Selective Catalytic Reduction is a robust technology to control the emission of NO x , and the injection of urea in water solution is the exhaust tailpipe is a key aspect of its operation. The proposed work uses high-fidelity Computational Fluid Dynamics to characterize the atomization dynamics of the liquid jet in relevant cross-flow conditions. The study focuses on a commercial low-pressure (9 bar) pressure-swirl injector which is characterized in its internal geometry through high-resolution X-ray micro-computational tomography. The internal two-phase flow has been modeled according to the volume-of-fluid approach in a large eddy simulation framework and validated against near-nozzle X-ray radiography measurement. Moreover, characterizing the breakup dynamics for the swirling hollow cone formation, and assessing the influence of the cross-flow in the breakup dynamics was completed. The results have been reported proposing Re-Oh maps and probability density functions of the spray kinematics. Higher cross-flow momentum generates an increase in the jet intact length and a reduction of the liquid droplet diameters. The axial momentum of the jet is affected by the cross-flow already in the near-nozzle region, determining a relevant deviation of the spray velocities. In conclusion, this work aims to inform the initialization of Eulerian-Lagrangian spray models through the assignment of droplet kinematics and static one-way coupling between volume-of-fluid results and Lagrangian spray parcels, to be used for system-size domain simulations.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

The Impact of Microphysics and Planetary Boundary Layer Physics on Model Simulation of U.S. Deep South Summer Convection

Inspection of output from various configurations of high-resolution, explicit convection forecast models such as the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model indicates significant sensitivity to the choices of model physics pararneterizations employed. Some of the largest apparent sensitivities are related to the specifications of the cloud microphysics and planetary boundary layer physics packages. In addition, these sensitivities appear to be especially pronounced for the weakly-sheared, multicell modes of deep convection characteristic of the Deep South of the United States during the boreal summer. Possible ocean-land sensitivities also argue for further examination of the impacts of using unique ocean-land surface initialization datasets provided by the NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRn Center to select NOAAlNWS weather forecast offices. To obtain better quantitative understanding of these sensitivities and also to determine the utility of the ocean-land initialization data, we have executed matrices of regional WRF forecasts for selected convective events near Mobile, AL (MOB), and Houston, TX (HGX). The matrices consist of identically initialized WRF 24-h forecasts using any of eight microphysics choices and any of three planetary boWldary layer choices. The resulting 24 simulations performed for each event within either the MOB or HGX regions are then compared to identify the sensitivities of various convective storm metrics to the physics choices. Particular emphasis is placed on sensitivities of precipitation timing, intensity, and coverage, as well as amount and coverage oflightuing activity diagnosed from storm kinematics and graupel in the mixed phase layer. The results confirm impressions gleaned from study of the behavior of variously configured WRF runs contained in the ensembles produced each spring at the Center for the Analysis and Prediction of Storms, but with the benefit of more straightforward control of the physics package choices. The design of the experiments thus allows for more direct interpretation of the sensitivities to each possible physics combination. The results should assist forecasters in their efforts to anticipate and correct for possible biases in simulated WRF convection patterns, and help the modeling community refine their model parameterizations.

McCaul, Eugene W., Jr.↗

The Impacts of Microphysics and Planetary Boundary Layer Physics on Model Simulations of U. S. Deep South Summer Convection

Inspection of output from various configurations of high-resolution, explicit convection forecast models such as the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model indicates significant sensitivity to the choices of model physics parameterizations employed. Some of the largest apparent sensitivities are related to the specifications of the cloud microphysics and planetary boundary layer physics packages. In addition, these sensitivities appear to be especially pronounced for the weakly-sheared, multicell modes of deep convection characteristic of the Deep South of the United States during the boreal summer. Possible ocean-land sensitivities also argue for further examination of the impacts of using unique ocean-land surface initialization datasets provided by the NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT Center to select NOAA/NWS weather forecast offices. To obtain better quantitative understanding of these sensitivities and also to determine the utility of the ocean-land initialization data, we have executed matrices of regional WRF forecasts for selected convective events near Mobile, AL (MOB), and Houston, TX (HGX). The matrices consist of identically initialized WRF 24-h forecasts using any of eight microphysics choices and any of three planetary boundary layer choices. The resulting 24 simulations performed for each event within either the MOB or HGX regions are then compared to identify the sensitivities of various convective storm metrics to the physics choices. Particular emphasis is placed on sensitivities of precipitation timing, intensity, and coverage, as well as amount and coverage of lightning activity diagnosed from storm kinematics and graupel in the mixed phase layer. The results confirm impressions gleaned from study of the behavior of variously configured WRF runs contained in the ensembles produced each spring at the Center for the Analysis and Prediction of Storms, but with the benefit of more straightforward control of the physics package choices. The design of the experiments thus allows for more direct interpretation of the sensitivities to each possible physics combination. The results should assist forecasters in their efforts to anticipate and correct for possible biases in simulated WRF convection patterns, and help the modeling community refine their model parameterizations.

McCaul, E. W., Jr.↗

AI-3000K Infrared Line List for Hot CO 2

AI-3000K is a semi-empirical IR line list constructed for hot CO 2 spectra analysis and simulation up to 3000 – 4000 K. Compared to previously published Ames-1000K and UCL-4000, it represents a major upgrade, utilizing a new algorithm for optimization and including the latest improvements in potential energy surface (PES), dipole moment surface (DMS), and room temperature IR line list (Ames-2021 296K). To maximize the success of introducing experimental based accurate line positions, a new PES (X01d) was refined with respect to >800 selected CDSD2019 [Tashkun et al. JQSRT (2019) 228, 124] energy levels in the range of 0 – 24,000 cm -1 , with σ rms = 0.5 – 0.7 cm -1 . Most differences between the X01d PES based levels and CDSD2019 energies are within ± 2 cm -1 . A new DMS is fitted from extrapolated CCSD(T)/aug-cc-pV(T,Q,5)Z dipole calculations, with σ rms = 5.1 × 10 -6 au for 11,155 geometries up to 40,000 cm -1 , denoted Ames-2021–40K. Compared to the best available Ames-2021 DMS and room temperature IR line list [Huang et al J. Phys. Chem. A (2022) 126, 5940], the relative intensity differences are expected to be ∼ 1 ‰. The line position accuracy of ''X01d + Ames-2021–40K'' IR line list is significantly improved by adopting CDSD2019 energy levels up to 24,000 cm -1 (J ≤ 150). The Einstein A21 coefficients for E' < 15,000 cm -1 transitions are replaced by more accurate values from the Ames-2021 296K IR line list. In short, the AI-3000K is the X01d PES and Ames-2021–40K DMS based line list enhanced with the A 21 of Ames-2021 296K line list and CDSD energy levels. It provides continuous coverage from 0 to 20,000 cm -1 for the four most abundant isotopologues: 12 C 16 O 2 (626), 13 C 16 O 2 (636), 16 O 12 C 18 O (628), and 16 O 12 C 17 O (627). The impacts of isotopologue and E'/E'' cutoffs have been examined. Intensity convergence (not accuracy) of AI-3000K line list is quantitatively estimated in 1 cm -1 bins. It is better than 99% in the whole range of 0 – 20,000 (or 10,000) cm -1 at 1000 K (or 2000 K), or better than 90% in the whole range of 0 – 15,000 (or 9000) cm -1 at 2000 K (or 3000 K), respectively. Convergence beyond 3000 K will require a new PES and DMS for E' > 40,000 cm -1 . The AI-3000K and HITEMP based IR simulations are compared to high resolution shock tube experiments for CO 2 -Ar mixture up to 2000 K. With line position accuracy comparable to that of HITEMP, AI-3000K IR line list yields better agreements at more frequencies. Potential sources of discrepancies with experiment are discussed.

AI-3000K↗

Developing New Coastal Forest Restoration Products Based on Landsat, ASTER, and MODIS Data

This paper discusses an ongoing effort to develop new geospatial information products for aiding coastal forest restoration and conservation efforts in coastal Louisiana and Mississippi. This project employs Landsat, Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER), and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite data in conjunction with airborne elevation data to compute coastal forest cover type maps and change detection products. Improved forest mapping products are needed to aid coastal forest restoration and management efforts of State and Federal agencies in the Northern Gulf of Mexico (NGOM) region. In particular, such products may aid coastal forest land acquisition and conservation easement procurements. This region's forests are often disturbed and subjected to multiple biotic and abiotic threats, including subsidence, salt water intrusion, hurricanes, sea-level rise, insect-induced defoliation and mortality, altered hydrology, wildfire, and conversion to non-forest land use. In some cases, such forest disturbance has led to forest loss or loss of regeneration capacity. In response, a case study was conducted to assess and demonstrate the potential of satellite remote sensing products for improving forest type maps and for assessing forest change over the last 25 years. Change detection products are needed for assessing risks for specific priority coastal forest types, such as live oak and baldcypress-dominated forest. Preliminary results indicate Landsat time series data are capable of generating the needed forest type and change detection products. Useful classifications were obtained using 2 strategies: 1) general forest classification based on use of 3 seasons of Landsat data from the same year; and 2) classification of specific forest types of concern using a single date of Landsat data in which a given targeted type is spectrally distinct compared to adjacent forested cover. When available, ASTER data was useful as a complement to Landsat data. Elevation data helped to define areas in which targeted forest types occur, such as live oak forests on natural levees. MODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index time series data aided visual assessments of coastal forest damage and recovery from hurricanes. Landsat change detection products enabled change to be identified at the stand level and at 10- year intervals with the earliest date preceding available change detection products from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and from the U.S. Geological Survey. Additional work is being done in collaboration with State and Federal agency partners in a follow-on NASA ROSES project to refine and validate these new, promising products. The products from the ROSES project will be available for aiding NGOM coastal forest restoration and conservation.

Spruce, Joseph P.↗

Role of MODIS Vegetation Phenology Products in the ForWarn System for Monitoring of Forest Disturbances in the Conterminous United States

This presentation discusses MODIS vegetation phenology products used in the ForWarn Early Warning System (EWS) tool for near real time regional forest disturbance detection and surveillance at regional to national scales. The ForWarn EWS is being developed by the USDA Forest Service NASA, ORNL, and USGS to aid federal and state forest health management activities. ForWarn employs multiple historical land surface phenology products that are derived from MODIS MOD13 Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data. The latter is temporally processed into phenology products with the Time Series Product Tool (TSPT) and the Phenological Parameter Estimation Tool (PPET) software produced at NASA Stennis Space Center. TSPT is used to effectively noise reduce, fuse, and void interpolate MODIS NDVI data. PPET employs TSPT-processed NDVI time series data as an input, outputting multiple vegetation phenology products at a 232 meter resolution for 2000 to 2011, including NDVI magnitude and day of year products for seven key points along the growing season (peak of growing season and the minima, 20%, and 80% of the peak NDVI for both the left and right side of growing season), cumulative NDVI integral products for the most active part of the growing season and sequentially across the growing season at 8 day intervals, and maximum value NDVI products composited at 24 day intervals in which each product date has 8 days of overlap between the previous and following product dates. MODIS NDVI phenology products are also used to compute nationwide NRT forest change products refreshed every 8 days. These include percent change in forest NDVI products that compare the current NDVI from USGS eMODIS products to historical MODIS MOD13 NDVI. For each date, three forest change products are produced using three different maximum value NDVI baselines (from the previous year, three previous years, and all previous years). All change products are output with a rainbow color table in which forests with the most severe NDVI decreases are assigned hot colors (yellow to red) and forests with prominent NDVI increases are assigned cold colors (blue tones). All mentioned products have been integrated as data layers into ForWarn s geospatial data viewer known as the U.S. Forest Change Assessment Viewer (FCAV). The latter is used to view and assess the context of the mentioned forest change products with respect to ancillary data layers, such as land cover, elevation, hydrologic features, climatic data, storm data, aerial disturbance surveys, fire data, and land ownership. The FCAV also includes a temporal NDVI profiler for viewing phenological change in multi-year NDVI associated with known or suspected regionally apparent forest disturbances (e.g., from fire and insects). ForWarn forest change products have been used to detect, track, and assess several biotic and abiotic regional forest disturbance events across the country, including ephemeral and longer lasting damage from storms, drought, and insects. Such change products are most effective for viewing severe disturbances affecting multiple MODIS pixels. MODIS vegetation phenology products contribute vital current information on forest conditions to the ForWarn system and this role is expected to grow as these products are refined and derivative products are added.

Spruce, Joseph P.↗

Technology Assessment of High Capacity Data Storage Systems: Can We Avoid a Data Survivability Crisis?

In a recent address at the California Science Center in Los Angeles, Vice President Al Gore articulated a Digital Earth Vision. That vision spoke to developing a multi-resolution, three-dimensional visual representation of the planet into which we can roam and zoom into vast quantities of embedded geo-referenced data. The vision was not limited to moving through space, but also allowing travel over a time-line, which can be set for days, years, centuries, or even geological epochs. A working group of Federal Agencies, developing a coordinated program to implement the Vice President's vision, developed the definition of the Digital Earth as a visual representation of our planet that enables a person to explore and interact with the vast amounts of natural and cultural geo-referenced information gathered about the Earth. One of the challenges identified by the agencies was whether the technology existed that would be available to permanently store and deliver all the digital data that enterprises might want to save for decades and centuries. Satellite digital data is growing by Moore's Law as is the growth of computer generated data. Similarly, the density of digital storage media in our information-intensive society is also increasing by a factor of four every three years. The technological bottleneck is that the bandwidth for transferring data is only growing at a factor of four every nine years. This implies that the migration of data to viable long-term storage is growing more slowly. The implication is that older data stored on increasingly obsolete media are at considerable risk if they cannot be continuously migrated to media with longer life times. Another problem occurs when the software and hardware systems for which the media were designed are no longer serviced by their manufacturers. Many instances exist where support for these systems are phased out after mergers or even in going out of business. In addition, survivability of older media can suffer from physical breakdown of components (e.g. tapes simply lose their magnetic properties after a long time in storage). As a result, a potential data survivability crisis is emerging. The scale of the crisis is comparable to that facing the Social Security System. Sometime in one or two decades, the exponential growth of data will become so great that many enterprises will not be able to migrate through their data to more permanent media during the lifetime of the media on which it resides. This will result in significant losses of data and their resultant impacts. To avoid this crisis, we need to plan and devote greater financial and intellectual resources are needed for the development and refinement of new storage media and migration technologies in order to preserve all data any organization determines worth saving permanently. This talk will explore technological solutions and suggested recommendations to address this technological data crisis.

Halem, Milton↗