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A New Look at NASA: Strategic Research In Information Technology

This viewgraph presentation provides information on research undertaken by NASA to facilitate the development of information technologies. Specific ideas covered here include: 1) Bio/nano technologies: biomolecular and nanoscale systems and tools for assembly and computing; 2) Evolvable hardware: autonomous self-improving, self-repairing hardware and software for survivable space systems in extreme environments; 3) High Confidence Software Technologies: formal methods, high-assurance software design, and program synthesis; 4) Intelligent Controls and Diagnostics: Next generation machine learning, adaptive control, and health management technologies; 5) Revolutionary computing: New computational models to increase capability and robustness to enable future NASA space missions.

Alfano, David↗

Economic and Jobs Impacts of Point-Source Carbon Capture in Cement Industry – Case Study

The cement industry accounts for an estimated 8% of global CO2 emissions, which surpasses that of the entire aviation sector. In contrast with other industries, where CO2 emissions can be drastically reduced via electrification or fuels substitution, cement production releases CO2 as part of its process, during the calcination of carbonates to yield oxides. Thus, point-source carbon capture has become a key technology in the cement industry’s decarbonization. Apart from the expected environmental benefits, point-source carbon capture in the cement industry can yield important economic benefits and create jobs. The objective of this study was to perform a preliminary assessment of the economic and workforce impacts associated with the construction and operation of a point-source carbon capture retrofit of an existing cement production facility, using as a basis the data from a front-end engineering design (FEED) study to install a 3.9 million metric tons per year (Mtpy) CO2 capture facility at Holcim Ste Genevieve cement plant in Missouri, United States of America. The advanced carbon capture technology used in this FEED study was Air Liquide’s Cryocap™ FG carbon capture technology. The study evaluated the direct, indirect, and induced economic impacts of the construction, operation, and maintenance activities of the project over its lifespan. It also covered how the project will generate new jobs, their nature, and quantity, along with strategies to prepare the workforce. To perform this study, construction, operation, and maintenance cost estimates, as well as construction and operation staffing plans from the FEED study were input into IMPLAN version 7.5 software, licensed by IMPLAN Group LLC (Huntersville, VC), to predict the direct, indirect and induced economic impacts of the project using industry multipliers from the software. Additionally, recruitment strategies were developed for hiring individuals who belong to groups that are historically underserved or underrepresented, as well as anticipated recruitment of workers from the local community (whether training will be required or if the skills are associated with an existing labor force). The analysis estimated that the construction and operation of the carbon capture at Holcim Ste. Genevive will result in over 24 thousand work-years of job opportunities, close to USD 10 billion of economic impacts, including over USD 460 million of tax revenue. These results encompass the direct, indirect, and induced effects. A strategy to maximize hiring from the project and neighboring counties was developed, leveraging training agreements with local trade groups and universities. The result of this study can be used for a strategic preliminary assessment of the potential regional economic and job impacts of retrofitting existing cement plants with point source carbon systems, and its methodology can be replicated to individual projects to aid in planning and workforce development.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

LDRD FY25 Program Overview

As Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory’s (LLNL’s) Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) program enters its fifth decade of leading-edge research and development, its impact and importance have never been stronger. The program continues to advance strategic investments in pioneering science, technology, and engineering, ensuring LLNL will be ready to deliver on our mission as it evolves over the coming decades. Investing in LDRD research, and the people who perform this critical work, gives LLNL the ability to sustain our role as a leader in the Department of Energy and National Nuclear Security Administration enterprise. The LDRD program enables high-risk, high-payoff research that anticipates emerging threats and future mission needs. By nurturing the ingenuity of the Lab’s greatest asset, its people, LDRD funding advances not only our research but also grows and nurtures our workforce: engaging future innovators with student mentoring, challenging postdoctoral researchers to apply their skills to support national security, and strengthening the leadership skills of early career staff. This annual report documents how LDRD investments advance LLNL’s science, technology, and engineering across our mission space. To assess LDRD’s impact we track both short and long-term metrics such as peer-reviewed publications, number of students, or professional fellows. In addition to reviewing these metrics, I encourage you to delve deeper into the breadth of science and technology that illustrate the strategic value of this research portfolio. For instance, a recent exploratory research project used advanced manufacturing to construct miniaturized three-dimensional ion traps for a quantum computer with reduced quantum error rates to enable applications that address national security missions and support basic science. Another project has delved into studying detonation by examining deflagration to enhance the safety and security of the nuclear weapons stockpile. LDRD researchers are also deploying AI agents on two of the world’s most powerful supercomputers to automate and accelerate inertial confinement fusion experiments. Other teams are delivering more accurate optical constants to enable improved validation for aluminum to advance atomic and molecular physics models. LDRD-driven discoveries of how metals deform under extreme conditions strengthen our ability to model and design materials for demanding national security environments. National security challenges are increasingly complex and continuously evolving. LDRD focuses our most innovative science and technology on these challenges, ensuring the Laboratory is developing creative, forward-leaning solutions for our nation and the world. The following pages feature highlights of published scientific advances, patents, and honors that stem from LDRD investments. As you read this report, I hope you will understand how these investments position the Laboratory, and our partners, to meet the demands of the decades ahead.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Improving Early Adaptation Following Long Duration Spaceflight by Enhancing Vestibular Information

Crewmember adapted to the microgravity state may need to egress the vehicle within a few minutes for safety and operational reasons after g-transitions. The transition from one sensorimotor state to another consists of two main mechanisms: strategic and plastic-adaptive and have been demonstrated in astronauts returning after long duration space flight. Strategic modifications represent "early adaptation" -immediate and transitory changes in control that are employed to deal with short-term changes in the environment. If these modifications are prolonged then plastic-adaptive changes are evoked that modify central nervous system function, automating new behavioral responses. More importantly, this longer term adaptive recovery mechanism was significantly associated with their strategic ability to recover on the first day after return to Earth G. We are developing a method based on stochastic resonance (SR) to enhance information transfer by improving the brain's ability to detect vestibular signals especially when combined with balance training exercises for rapid improvement in functional skill, for standing and mobility. The countermeasure to improve post-flight balance and locomotor disturbances is a stimulus delivery system that is wearable/portable providing low imperceptible levels of white noise based binaural bipolar electrical stimulation of the vestibular system (stochastic vestibular stimulation, SVS). The techniques for improving signal detection using SVS may thus provide additional information to improve such strategic abilities and thus help in significantly reducing the number of days required to recover functional performance to preflight levels after long duration space flight. We have conducted a series of studies to document the efficacy of SVS stimulation on balance/locomotion tasks on unstable surfaces and motion tracking tasks during intra-vestibular system conflicts. In an initial study, we showed that SVS improved overall balance performance while standing on an unstable surface indicating that SVS may be sufficient to provide a comprehensive countermeasure approach for improving postural stability. In a second study, we showed that SVS improved locomotor performance on a treadmill mounted on an oscillating platform indicating that SVS may also be used to maximize locomotor performance during walking in unstable environments. In a third study, SVS was evaluated during an otolith-canal conflict scenario in a variable radius centrifuge at low frequency of oscillation (0.1 Hz) on both eye movements and perceptual responses (using a joystick) to track imposed oscillations. The variable radius centrifuge provides a selective tilting sensation that is detectable only by the otolith organs providing conflicting information from the canal organs of the vestibular system (intra-vestibular conflict). Results show that SVS significantly reduced the timing difference between both the eye movement responses as well as the perceptual tracking responses with respect to the imposed tilt sensations. These results indicate that SVS can improve performance in sensory conflict scenarios like that experienced during space flight. Such a SR countermeasure will act synergistically along with the pre-and in-flight adaptability training protocols providing an integrated, multi-disciplinary countermeasure capable of fulfilling multiple requirements making it a comprehensive and cost effective countermeasure approach to enhance sensorimotor capabilities following long-duration space flight.

Mulavara, Ajitkumar↗

The Office of Space Science and Applications strategic plan, 1990: A strategy for leadership in space through excellence in space science and applications

A strategic plan for the U.S. space science and applications program during the next 5 to 10 years was developed and published in 1988. Based on the strategies developed by the advisory committees of both the National Academy of Science and NASA, the plan balances major, moderate, and small mission initiatives, the utilization of the Space Station Freedom, and the requirements for a vital research base. The Office of Space Science and Applications (OSSA) strategic plan is constructed around five actions: establish a set of programmatic themes; establish a set of decision rules; establish a set of priorities for missions and programs within each theme; demonstrate that the strategy will yield a viable program; and check the strategy for consistency within resource constraints. The OSSA plan is revised annually. This OSSA 1990 Strategic Plan refines the 1989 Plan and represents OSSA's initial plan for fulfilling its responsibilities in two major national initiatives. The Plan is now built on interrelated, complementary strategies for the core space science and applications program, for the U.S. Global Change Research Program, and for the Space Exploration Initiative. The challenge is to make sure that the current level of activity is sustained through the end of this century and into the next. The 1990 Plan presents OSSA's strategy to do this.

Source record↗

Automation for Accommodating Fuel-Efficient Descents in Constrained Airspace

Continuous descents at low engine power are desired to reduce fuel consumption, emissions and noise during arrival operations. The challenge is to allow airplanes to fly these types of efficient descents without interruption during busy traffic conditions. During busy conditions today, airplanes are commonly forced to fly inefficient, step-down descents as airtraffic controllers work to ensure separation and maximize throughput. NASA in collaboration with government and industry partners is developing new automation to help controllers accommodate continuous descents in the presence of complex traffic and airspace constraints. This automation relies on accurate trajectory predictions to compute strategic maneuver advisories. The talk will describe the concept behind this new automation and provide an overview of the simulations and flight testing used to develop and refine its underlying technology.

Coopenbarger, Richard A.↗

Toward Discord : Code for Simulating Continuous Spin Systems

A new computational tool to simulate classical spin systems with frustrated crystal structures is presented. Complementary single- and cluster-spin flip algorithms are implemented to calculate the diffuse scattering patterns, spin-pair correlations, and thermodynamic quantities. Test cases of geometrically frustrated kagome, pyrochlore, and cubic systems are detailed. Two recent scientific cases are also shown here. This new method, together with recent developments of the rmc-discord package (https://github.com/zjmorgan/rmc-discord), represent integrated and strategic step in a complete forward and reverse Monte Carlo framework discord.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Sandia's Integrated Methodology for Energy and Infrastructure Resilience Analysis

Sandia National Laboratories' (Sandia) Resilient Energy Systems (RES) Strategic Initiative is establishing a strategic vision for U.S. energy systems' resilience through threat-informed research and development, enabling energy and interdependent infrastructure systems to successfully adapt in an environment of accelerating change. A key challenge in promoting energy systems resilience lies in developing rigorous resilience analysis methodologies to quantify system performance. Resilience analysis methodologies should enable evaluation of the consequences of various disruptions and the relative effectiveness of potential mitigations. To address this challenge, RES synthesized the common components of Sandia's resilience frameworks into an integrated methodology for energy and infrastructure resilience analysis. This report documents, demonstrates, and extends this methodology.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Technology and Innovation Roadmap

This Technology and Innovation Roadmap outlines the Hanford Tank Waste Operations & Closure, LLC (H2C) strategic approach for advancing the Hanford Tank Waste Treatment Mission (HTWTM) through technology development. Our focus is on addressing technology needs that address risks, enhance efficiency, ensure worker safety, and uphold environmental standards. This Roadmap identifies key technology initiatives essential for the successful completion of the Hanford Site tank waste cleanup. Updated annually, it incorporates insights from the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), the Integrated Tank Disposition Contractor (ITDC) H2C, recognized national lab experts, and fieldwork specialists. The Roadmap includes approximately 100 technology elements, each detailed in Technology Element Description Summaries (TEDS) and summarized in catalog sheets. These elements are crucial for aligning technology development activities with mission objectives across the HTWTM. With the initiation of the Direct-Feed Low-Activity Waste (DFLAW) program and the operation of the Tank Side Cesium Removal (TSCR) system, our focus now shifts to the support of scaled up production in East Area; applying similar and exploring new treatment alternatives to West Area Tank Waste; and advancing retrieval, delivery and treatment technologies for waste managed as high-level waste (HLW) across the Hanford tank farms. This transition is reflected in the technology and maturation (TM&E) charts, which highlight the evolving technology priorities. This document serves as a guide for navigating the challenges and opportunities in technology development at the Hanford Site.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Development of rapidly solidified oxidation resistant alloys

The development of iron-base alloys that contain low concentrations of expensive and/or strategic metals, but that are very resistant to oxidation at elevated tempratures was investigated. Rapid solidification processing was employed to make alloys that are uniform in composition, that comprise very fine grains 10 microns and that contain a uniform dispersion of very fine ( 0.5 microns) nonmetallic inclusions. Each of these factors contribute to the oxidation behavior of alloys. The compositional and processing variables that yield the optimum oxidation resistance are described.

Yurek, G. J.↗

We Must Take the Next Steps Towards Safe, Routine Space Travel

This paper presents, in viewgraph form, six in a half generations of airplanes in a century. Some of the topics include: 1) Enterprise goals; 2) Generations of Reusable Launch Vehicles; 3) Space Transportation Across NASA; 4) Three Tiered Implementation Approach for Future Space Transportation Technology; 5) Develop a Comprehensive, Agency Level Space Transportation Plan That Will Enable NASA's Strategic Plan; 6) Timeline for Addressing NASA's Needs; 7) Significant 2nd Generation Technology Drivers; 8) Example Large Scale Ground Demonstrations; and 9) Example Pathfinder Demonstrations. The paper also includes various aircraft designs and propulsion system technology.

Lyles, G. M.↗

Unstructured LES of Reacting Multiphase Flows in Realistic Gas Turbine Combustors

As part of the Accelerated Strategic Computing Initiative (ASCI) program, an accurate and robust simulation tool is being developed to perform high-fidelity LES studies of multiphase, multiscale turbulent reacting flows in aircraft gas turbine combustor configurations using hybrid unstructured grids. In the combustor, pressurized gas from the upstream compressor is reacted with atomized liquid fuel to produce the combustion products that drive the downstream turbine. The Large Eddy Simulation (LES) approach is used to simulate the combustor because of its demonstrated superiority over RANS in predicting turbulent mixing, which is central to combustion. This paper summarizes the accomplishments of the combustor group over the past year, concentrating mainly on the two major milestones achieved this year: 1) Large scale simulation: A major rewrite and redesign of the flagship unstructured LES code has allowed the group to perform large eddy simulations of the complete combustor geometry (all 18 injectors) with over 100 million control volumes; 2) Multi-physics simulation in complex geometry: The first multi-physics simulations including fuel spray breakup, coalescence, evaporation, and combustion are now being performed in a single periodic sector (1/18th) of an actual Pratt & Whitney combustor geometry.

Ham, Frank↗

A Contrast in Use of Metrics in Earth Science Data Systems

In recent years there has been a surge in the number of systems for processing, archiving and distributing remotely sensed data. Such systems, working independently as well as in collaboration, have been contributing greatly to the advances in the scientific understanding of the Earth system, as well as utilization of the data for nationally and internationally important applications. Among such systems, we consider those that are developed by or under the sponsorship of NASA to fulfill one of its strategic objectives: "Study Earth from space to advance scientific understanding and meet societal needs." NASA's Earth science data systems are of varying size and complexity depending on the requirements they are intended to meet. Some data systems are regarded as NASA's "Core Capabilities" that provide the basic infrastructure for processing, archiving and distributing a set of data products to a large and diverse user community in a robust and reliable manner. Other data systems constitute "Community Capabilities". These provide specialized and innovative services to data users and/or research products offering new scientific insight. Such data systems are generally supported by NASA through peer reviewed competition. Examples of Core Capabilities are 1. Earth Observing Data and Information System (EOSDIS) with its Distributed Active Archive Centers (DAACs), Science Investigator-led Processing Systems (SIPSs), and the EOS Clearing House (ECHO); 2. Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) Science Data and Information System (TSDIS); 3. Ocean Data Processing System (ODPS); and 4. CloudSat Data Processing Center. Examples of Community Capabilities are projects under the Research, Education and Applications Solutions Network (REASON), and Advancing Collaborative Connections for Earth System Science (ACCESS) Programs. In managing these data system capabilities, it is necessary to have well-established goals and to measure progress relative to them. Progress is measured through "metrics", which can be a combination of quantitative as well as qualitative assessments. The specific metrics of interest depend on the user of the metrics as well as the type of data system. The users of metrics can be data system managers, program managers, funding agency or the public. Data system managers need metrics for assessing and improving the performance of the system and for future planning. Program managers need metrics to assess progress and the value of the data systems sponsored by them. Also, there is a difference in the metrics needed for core capabilities that tend to be more complex, larger and longer-term compared to community capabilities and the community capabilities that tend to be simpler, smaller and shorter-term. Even among community capabilities there are differences; hence the same set of metrics does not apply to all. Some provide data products to users, some provide services that enable better utilization of data or interoperability among other systems, and some are a part of a larger project where provision of data or services is only a minor activity. There is also a contrast between metrics used for internal and external purposes. Examples of internal purposes are: ensuring that the system meets its requirements, and planning for evolution and growth. Examples of external purposes are: providing to sponsors indicators of success of the systems, demonstrating the contributions of the system to overall program success, etc. This paper will consider EOSDIS, REASON and ACCESS programs to show the various types of metrics needed and how they need to be tailored to the types of data systems while maintaining the overall management goals of measuring progress and contributions made by the data systems.

Ramapriyan, Hampapuram↗

Evolution of the Earth Observing System (EOS) Data and Information System (EOSDIS)

One of the strategic goals of the U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is to "Develop a balanced overall program of science, exploration, and aeronautics consistent with the redirection of the human spaceflight program to focus on exploration". An important sub-goal of this goal is to "Study Earth from space to advance scientific understanding and meet societal needs." NASA meets this subgoal in partnership with other U.S. agencies and international organizations through its Earth science program. A major component of NASA s Earth science program is the Earth Observing System (EOS). The EOS program was started in 1990 with the primary purpose of modeling global climate change. This program consists of a set of space-borne instruments, science teams, and a data system. The instruments are designed to obtain highly accurate, frequent and global measurements of geophysical properties of land, oceans and atmosphere. The science teams are responsible for designing the instruments as well as scientific algorithms to derive information from the instrument measurements. The data system, called the EOS Data and Information System (EOSDIS), produces data products using those algorithms as well as archives and distributes such products. The first of the EOS instruments were launched in November 1997 on the Japanese satellite called the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and the last, on the U.S. satellite Aura, were launched in July 2004. The instrument science teams have been active since the inception of the program in 1990 and have participation from Brazil, Canada, France, Japan, Netherlands, United Kingdom and U.S. The development of EOSDIS was initiated in 1990, and this data system has been serving the user community since 1994. The purpose of this chapter is to discuss the history and evolution of EOSDIS since its beginnings to the present and indicate how it continues to evolve into the future. this chapter is organized as follows. Sect. 7.2 provides a discussion of EOSDIS, its elements and their functions. Sect. 7.3 provides details regarding the move towards more distributed systems for supporting both the core and community needs to be served by NASA Earth science data systems. Sect. 7.4 discusses the use of standards and interfaces and their importance in EOSDIS. Sect. 7.5 provides details about the EOSDIS Evolution Study. Sect. 7.6 presents the implementation of the EOSDIS Evolution plan. Sect. 7.7 briefly outlines the progress that the implementation has made towards the 2015 Vision, followed by a summary in Sect. 7.8.

Ramapriyan, Hampapuram K.↗

4.2.1.31 Integrated Life Cycle Sustainability Analysis

This project provides the Department of Energy's Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO) with strategic decision-support for the evaluation of its R&D portfolio by developing, validating, and applying a coherent methodology and consistent model framework to quantify the net effects of an expanding US bioeconomy. The framework fills an analysis gap previously identified by Peer Review and supports a related milestone in BETO's Multi-Year Program Plan. The framework was scoped with inputs from practitioners in academia, national laboratories, and federal agencies. The model is a top-down, economy-wide framework using a coherent methodology to compute environmental and socio-economic metrics. It is purposefully complementary to existing bottom-up, process-based techno-economic and life cycle assessment BETO tools and uses their data as inputs. Presently, the model covers several commercial and near-commercial biofuel routes and an emerging pathway for plastics upcycling. It covers temporal detail across four time-steps and is currently being expanded with a prospective modeling capability. The model has provided analyses for the Third Triennial Report to Congress (RtC3) on the environmental impacts of the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS2), among others. As part of this project, NREL also provides scientific support to BETO in the International Energy Agency's Technology Collaboration Program on Bioenergy (IEA Bioenergy) Task 45 on Sustainability. Here, NREL evaluates and synthesizes activities that develop, compare, or apply metrics, methods, and tools to quantify sustainability effects of bioeconomy products. NREL also coordinates related national lab involvement and a BETO Working Group on Sustainable Land Management.

bioeconomy↗

Developing IEEE Std 2800-Compliant Algorithms for Transmission-Connected Inverter-Based Resources: Preprint

This study addresses the compliance of Inverter-based Resources (IBRs) with the IEEE Std 2800, a leading standard that defines interconnection and interoperability requirements for IBRs integrated into transmission systems. Focusing on abnormal grid scenarios, the research evaluates the specific demands on IBRs, proposing a comprehensive controller development framework. This framework caters to maintaining ride-trhough operation or implementing strategic disconnections in line with IEEE Std 2800, alongside managing currents during voltage ride-through scenarios. The effectiveness of this proposed controller framework is rigorously validated through case studies, employing a MATLAB/Simulink model of an IBR to test its performance under diverse grid fault conditions, ensuring the IBRs' alignment with standard requirements and their robust performance in enhancing grid reliability.

IEEE Std 2800↗

Space Exploration Technologies Developed through Existing and New Research Partnerships Initiatives

The Space Partnership Development Program of NASA has been highly successful in leveraging commercial research investments to the strategic mission and applied research goals of the Agency through industry academic partnerships. This program is currently undergoing an outward-looking transformation towards Agency wide research and discovery goals that leverage partnership contributions to the strategic research needed to demonstrate enabling space exploration technologies encompassing both robotic spacecraft missions and human space flight. New Space Partnership Initiatives with incremental goals and milestones will allow a continuing series of accomplishments to be achieved throughout the duration of each initiative, permit the "lessons learned" and capabilities acquired from previous implementation steps to be incorporated into subsequent phases of the initiatives, and allow adjustments to be made to the implementation of the initiatives as new opportunities or challenges arise. An Agency technological risk reduction roadmap for any required technologies not currently available will identify the initiative focus areas for the development, demonstration and utilization of space resources supporting the production of power, air, and water, structures and shielding materials. This paper examines the successes to date, lessons learned, and programmatic outlook of enabling sustainable exploration and discovery through governmental, industrial, academic, and international partnerships. Previous government and industry technology development programs have demonstrated that a focused research program that appropriately shares the developmental risk can rapidly mature low Technology Readiness Level (TRL) technologies to the demonstration level. This cost effective and timely, reduced time to discovery, partnership approach to the development of needed technological capabilities addresses the dual use requirements by the investing partners. In addition, these partnerships help to ensure the attainment of complimenting human and robotic exploration goals for NASA while providing additional capabilities for sustainable scientific research benefiting life and security on Earth.

Nall, Mark↗

Technology Alignment and Portfolio Prioritization (TAPP): Advanced Methods in Strategic Analysis, Technology Forecasting and Long Term Planning for Human Exploration and Operations, Advanced Exploration Systems and Advanced Concepts

The Advanced Concepts Office (ACO) at NASA, Marshall Space Flight Center is expanding its current technology assessment methodologies. ACO is developing a framework called TAPP that uses a variety of methods, such as association mining and rule learning from data mining, structure development using a Technological Innovation System (TIS), and social network modeling to measure structural relationships. The role of ACO is to 1) produce a broad spectrum of ideas and alternatives for a variety of NASA's missions, 2) determine mission architecture feasibility and appropriateness to NASA's strategic plans, and 3) define a project in enough detail to establish an initial baseline capable of meeting mission objectives ACO's role supports the decision­-making process associated with the maturation of concepts for traveling through, living in, and understanding space. ACO performs concept studies and technology assessments to determine the degree of alignment between mission objectives and new technologies. The first step in technology assessment is to identify the current technology maturity in terms of a technology readiness level (TRL). The second step is to determine the difficulty associated with advancing a technology from one state to the next state. NASA has used TRLs since 1970 and ACO formalized them in 1995. The DoD, ESA, Oil & Gas, and DoE have adopted TRLs as a means to assess technology maturity. However, "with the emergence of more complex systems and system of systems, it has been increasingly recognized that TRL assessments have limitations, especially when considering [the] integration of complex systems." When performing the second step in a technology assessment, NASA requires that an Advancement Degree of Difficulty (AD2) method be utilized. NASA has used and developed or used a variety of methods to perform this step: Expert Opinion or Delphi Approach, Value Engineering or Value Stream, Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), Technique for the Order of Prioritization by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS), and other multi­‐criteria decision-making methods. These methods can be labor-intensive, often contain cognitive or parochial bias, and do not consider the competing prioritization between mission architectures. Strategic Decision-Making (SDM) processes cannot be properly understood unless the context of the technology is understood. This makes assessing technological change particularly challenging due to the relationships "between incumbent technology and the incumbent (innovation) system in relation to the emerging technology and the emerging innovation system." The central idea in technology dynamics is to consider all activities that contribute to the development, diffusion, and use of innovations as system functions. Bergek defines system functions within a TIS to address what is actually happening and has a direct influence on the ultimate performance of the system and technology development. ACO uses similar metrics and is expanding these metrics to account for the structure and context of the technology. At NASA technology and strategy is strongly interrelated. NASA's Strategic Space Technology Investment Plan (SSTIP) prioritizes those technologies essential to the pursuit of NASA's missions and national interests. The SSTIP is strongly coupled with NASA's Technology Roadmaps to provide investment guidance during the next four years, within a twenty-year horizon. This paper discusses the methods ACO is currently developing to better perform technology assessments while taking into consideration Strategic Alignment, Technology Forecasting, and Long Term Planning.

Funaro, Gregory V.↗