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At least 649 records · Page 36

Autonomous Propulsion System Technology Being Developed to Optimize Engine Performance Throughout the Lifecycle

The goal of the Autonomous Propulsion System Technology (APST) project is to reduce pilot workload under both normal and anomalous conditions. Ongoing work under APST develops and leverages technologies that provide autonomous engine monitoring, diagnosing, and controller adaptation functions, resulting in an integrated suite of algorithms that maintain the propulsion system's performance and safety throughout its life. Engine-to-engine performance variation occurs among new engines because of manufacturing tolerances and assembly practices. As an engine wears, the performance changes as operability limits are reached. In addition to these normal phenomena, other unanticipated events such as sensor failures, bird ingestion, or component faults may occur, affecting pilot workload as well as compromising safety. APST will adapt the controller as necessary to achieve optimal performance for a normal aging engine, and the safety net of APST algorithms will examine and interpret data from a variety of onboard sources to detect, isolate, and if possible, accommodate faults. Situations that cannot be accommodated within the faulted engine itself will be referred to a higher level vehicle management system. This system will have the authority to redistribute the faulted engine's functionality among other engines, or to replan the mission based on this new engine health information. Work is currently underway in the areas of adaptive control to compensate for engine degradation due to aging, data fusion for diagnostics and prognostics of specific sensor and component faults, and foreign object ingestion detection. In addition, a framework is being defined for integrating all the components of APST into a unified system. A multivariable, adaptive, multimode control algorithm has been developed that accommodates degradation-induced thrust disturbances during throttle transients. The baseline controller of the engine model currently being investigated has multiple control modes that are selected according to some performance or operational criteria. As the engine degrades, parameters shift from their nominal values. Thus, when a new control mode is swapped in, a variable that is being brought under control might have an excessive initial error. The new adaptive algorithm adjusts the controller gains on the basis of the level of degradation to minimize the disruptive influence of the large error on other variables and to recover the desired thrust response.

Litt, Jonathan S.↗

A Transfer of Training Study of Control Loader Dynamics

The control inceptor used in a simulated vehicle is an important part in maintaining the fidelity of a simulation. The force feedback provided by the control inceptor gives the operator important cues to maintain adequate performance. The dynamics of a control inceptor are typically based on a second order spring mass damper system with damping, force gradient, breakout force, and natural frequency parameters. Changing these parameters can have a great effect on pilot or driver control of the vehicle. The neuromuscular system has a very important role in manipulating the control inceptor within a vehicle. Many studies by McRuer, Aponso, and Hess have dealt with modeling the neuromuscular system and quantifying the effects of a high fidelity control loader as compared to a low fidelity control loader. Humans are adaptive in nature and their control behavior changes based on different control loader dynamics. Humans will change their control behavior to maintain tracking bandwidth and minimize tracking error. This paper reports on a quasi-transfer of training experiment which was performed at the NASA Langley Research Center. The quasi transfer of training study used a high fidelity control loader and a low fidelity control loader. Subjects trained in both simulations and then were transferred to the high fidelity control loader simulation. The parameters for the high fidelity control loader were determined from the literature. The low fidelity control loader parameters were found through testing of a simple computer joystick. A disturbance compensatory task is employed. The compensatory task involves implementing a simple horizon out the window display. A disturbance consisting of a sum of sines is used. The task consists of the subject compensating for the disturbance on the roll angle of the aircraft. The vehicle dynamics are represented as 1/s and 1/s2. The subject will try to maintain level flight throughout the experiment. The subjects consist of non-pilots to remove any effects of pilot experience. First, this paper discusses the implementation of the disturbance compensation task. Second, the high and low fidelity parameters used within the experiment are presented. Finally, an explanation of results from the experiments is presented.

Cardullo, Frank M.↗

Special relativity effects for space-based coherent lidar experiments

There is a great need to develop a system that can measure accurately atmospheric wind profiles because an accurate data of wind profiles in the atmosphere constitutes single most input for reliable simulations of global climate numerical methods. Also such data helps us understand atmospheric circulation and climate dynamics better. Because of this need for accurate wind measurements, a space-based Laser Atmospheric Winds Sounder (LAWS) is being designed at MSFC to measure wind profiles in the lower atmosphere of the earth with an accuracy of 1 m/s at lower altitudes to 5m/s at higher altitudes. This system uses an orbiting spacecraft with a pulsed laser source and measures the Doppler shift between the transmitted and received frequencies to estimate the atmospheric wind velocities. If a significant return from the ground (sea) is possible, the spacecraft speed and height are estimated from it and these results and the Doppler shift are then used to estimate the wind velocities in the atmosphere. It is expected that at the proposed wavelengths, there will be enough backscatter from the aerosols but there may no be significant return from the ground. So a coherent (heterodyne) detection system is being proposed for signal processing because it can provide high signal to noise ratio and sensitivity and thus make the best use of low ground return. However, for a heterodyne detection scheme to provide the best results, it is important that the receiving aperture be aligned properly for the proposed wind sounder, this amounts to only a few microradians tolerance in alignment. It is suspected that the satellite motion relative to the ground may introduce errors in the order of a few microradians because of special relativity. Hence, the problem of laser scattering off a moving fixed target when the source and receiver are moving, which was not treated in the past in the literature, was analyzed in the following, using relativistic electrodynamics and applied to the case of the space-based coherent lidar, assuming flat ground. Here an interest in developing analytical expression for the location of the receiving point for the return with respect to the satellite, receiving angle and Doppler shift in frequency and amount of tip, all as measured in the satellite moving coordinate system and the diffuse scattering angle at the ground which does not require any compensation. All the three cases of retro-reflection, specular reflection and diffuse scattering by the ground should be treated though retro-reflection and diffuse scattering are more important.

Raogudimetla, V. S.↗

Adaptation in a rotating artificial gravity environment

The centripetal force generated by a rotating space vehicle is a potential source of artificial gravity. Minimizing the cost of such a vehicle dictates using the smallest radius and highest rotation rate possible, but head movements made at high rotation rates generate disorienting, nauseogenic cross-coupled semicircular canal stimulation. Early studies suggested 3 or 4 rpm as the highest rate at which humans could adapt to this vestibular stimulus. These studies neglected the concomitant Coriolis force actions on the head/neck system. We assessed non-vestibular Coriolis effects by measuring arm and leg movements made in the center of a rotating room turning at 10 rpm and found that movement endpoints and trajectories are initially deviated; however, subjects readily adapt with 10-20 additional movements, even without seeing their errors. Equilibrium point theories of motor control errantly predict that Coriolis forces will not cause movement endpoint errors so that subjects will not have to adapt their reaching movements during rotation. Adaptation of movement trajectory acquired during Coriolis force perturbations of one arm transfers to the unexposed arm but there is no intermanual transfer of endpoint adaptation indicating that neuromotor representations of movement endpoint and trajectory are separable and can adapt independently, also contradictory to equilibrium point theories. Touching a surface at the end of reaching movements is required for complete endpoint adaptation in darkness but trajectory adapts completely with or without terminal contact. We have also made the first kinematic measurements of unconstrained head movements during rotation, these movements show rapid adaptation to Coriolis force perturbations. Our results point to methods for achieving full compensation for rotation up to 10 rpm. Copyright 1998 Published by Elsevier Science B.V.

Non-NASA Center↗

Telerobotic Surgery: An Intelligent Systems Approach to Mitigate the Adverse Effects of Communication Delay

An extremely innovative approach has been presented, which is to have the surgeon operate through a simulator running in real-time enhanced with an intelligent controller component to enhance the safety and efficiency of a remotely conducted operation. The use of a simulator enables the surgeon to operate in a virtual environment free from the impediments of telecommunication delay. The simulator functions as a predictor and periodically the simulator state is corrected with truth data. Three major research areas must be explored in order to ensure achieving the objectives. They are: simulator as predictor, image processing, and intelligent control. Each is equally necessary for success of the project and each of these involves a significant intelligent component in it. These are diverse, interdisciplinary areas of investigation, thereby requiring a highly coordinated effort by all the members of our team, to ensure an integrated system. The following is a brief discussion of those areas. Simulator as a predictor: The delays encountered in remote robotic surgery will be greater than any encountered in human-machine systems analysis, with the possible exception of remote operations in space. Therefore, novel compensation techniques will be developed. Included will be the development of the real-time simulator, which is at the heart of our approach. The simulator will present real-time, stereoscopic images and artificial haptic stimuli to the surgeon. Image processing: Because of the delay and the possibility of insufficient bandwidth a high level of novel image processing is necessary. This image processing will include several innovative aspects, including image interpretation, video to graphical conversion, texture extraction, geometric processing, image compression and image generation at the surgeon station. Intelligent control: Since the approach we propose is in a sense predictor based, albeit a very sophisticated predictor, a controller, which not only optimizes end effector trajectory but also avoids error, is essential. We propose to investigate two different approaches to the controller design. One approach employs an optimal controller based on modern control theory; the other one involves soft computing techniques, i.e. fuzzy logic, neural networks, genetic algorithms and hybrids of these.

Cardullo, Frank M.↗

Neural Flight Control System

The Neural Flight Control System (NFCS) was developed to address the need for control systems that can be produced and tested at lower cost, easily adapted to prototype vehicles and for flight systems that can accommodate damaged control surfaces or changes to aircraft stability and control characteristics resulting from failures or accidents. NFCS utilizes on a neural network-based flight control algorithm which automatically compensates for a broad spectrum of unanticipated damage or failures of an aircraft in flight. Pilot stick and rudder pedal inputs are fed into a reference model which produces pitch, roll and yaw rate commands. The reference model frequencies and gains can be set to provide handling quality characteristics suitable for the aircraft of interest. The rate commands are used in conjunction with estimates of the aircraft s stability and control (S&C) derivatives by a simplified Dynamic Inverse controller to produce virtual elevator, aileron and rudder commands. These virtual surface deflection commands are optimally distributed across the aircraft s available control surfaces using linear programming theory. Sensor data is compared with the reference model rate commands to produce an error signal. A Proportional/Integral (PI) error controller "winds up" on the error signal and adds an augmented command to the reference model output with the effect of zeroing the error signal. In order to provide more consistent handling qualities for the pilot, neural networks learn the behavior of the error controller and add in the augmented command before the integrator winds up. In the case of damage sufficient to affect the handling qualities of the aircraft, an Adaptive Critic is utilized to reduce the reference model frequencies and gains to stay within a flyable envelope of the aircraft.

Gundy-Burlet, Karen↗

Adaptive Strategies for Controls of Flexible Arms

An adaptive controller for a modern manipulator has been designed based on asymptotical stability via the Lyapunov criterion with the output error between the system and a reference model used as the actuating control signal. Computer simulations were carried out to test the design. The combination of the adaptive controller and a system vibration and mode shape estimator show that the flexible arm should move along a pre-defined trajectory with high-speed motion and fast vibration setting time. An existing computer-controlled prototype two link manipulator, RALF (Robotic Arm, Large Flexible), with a parallel mechanism driven by hydraulic actuators was used to verify the mathematical analysis. The experimental results illustrate that assumed modes found from finite element techniques can be used to derive the equations of motion with acceptable accuracy. The robust adaptive (modal) control is implemented to compensate for unmodelled modes and nonlinearities and is compared with the joint feedback control in additional experiments. Preliminary results show promise for the experimental control algorithm.

Yuan, Bau-San↗

Visualization of three dimensional data

The objective of research is to characterize patterns of errors observers make when relating the judged exocentric direction of a target presented on a perspective display to their egocentric sense of visual direction. This type of spatial task is commonly faced by operators of telerobotic systems when using a map-like display of their workspace to determine the visual location and orientation of objects seen by direct view. It is also essentially the same task as faced by an aircraft pilot using a cockpit perspective traffic display of his surrounding airspace to locate traffic out his windows. The results of the current study clearly show that the visual direction is a significantly biased metric of virtual space presented by flat panel perspective displays. Modeling and explanation of the causes of the observed biases will allow design of compensated perspective displays.

Ellis, Stephen R.↗

Adaptive Model-Free Vehicle Path-Tracking via Fast-Converging Prescribed-Time Newton-Based Extremum-Seeking Control

Model-free control (MFC) offers a simple and effective approach to automated vehicle path-tracking without requiring an explicit plant model for control law design. However, gain tuning in MFC is typically carried out through trial-and-error, which can be time-consuming and may lead to suboptimal performance. To address this limitation, extremum-seeking-based adaptive MFC has shown promise by enabling real-time adaptation of control gains, without relying on a predefined vehicle model. Nonetheless, existing ESC approaches often suffer from slow convergence. This paper integrates MFC, employing longitudinal and lateral ultra-local models of a rear-wheel-drive vehicle, with a novel prescribed-time (PT) Newton-based extremum-seeking control (ESC) strategy that ensures rapid convergence of control gains within the prescribed time. Unlike conventional gradient-based ESC methods, the PT Newton-based ESC leverages artificial delays and time-periodic gains, not only to guarantee convergence within the specified time, but also to compensate for feedback delays. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed approach significantly improves gain adaptation speed and tracking accuracy. This work advances adaptive model-free vehicle control by offering a high-performance, delay-resilient alternative to existing ESCMFC frameworks.

Waleed khan, Muhammad [The University of Texas at ↗

GRAVSAT error analysis by means of global spectral analyses of the marine geoid from SEASAT altimeter data

The geographical variability of short wavelength geoid power spectra (geoid roughness), was mapped for the world's oceans between latitudes 72 deg N and 72 deg S. A spectral analysis of SEASAT altimeter data, reduced to sea surface heights, was performed at 2 minute intervals for 15 consecutive days of the 3-day repeat orbit. The geoid roughness represented by these spectra for wavelengths shorter than about 220 km is separated from the total sea height variance and is displayed in the form of a global contour map. The global average geoid roughness is 32 cm RMS, varying from a high in excess of 2 m RMS near deep ocean trenches to a low of 2 cm RMS in the southeast Pacific near the East Pacific Rise. This average value agrees well with previous estimates based on gravimetry and GEOS-3 altimetry. In general, the smoothest areas in the marine geoid overlie relatively young seafloor adjacent mid-ocean spreading centers, where even short-wavelength topographic variations tend to be isostatically compensated.

Source record↗

Ka-Band, Multi-Gigabit-Per-Second Transceiver

A document discusses a multi-Gigabit-per-second, Ka-band transceiver with a software-defined modem (SDM) capable of digitally encoding/decoding data and compensating for linear and nonlinear distortions in the end-to-end system, including the traveling-wave tube amplifier (TWTA). This innovation can increase data rates of space-to-ground communication links, and has potential application to NASA s future spacebased Earth observation system. The SDM incorporates an extended version of the industry-standard DVB-S2, and LDPC rate 9/10 FEC codec. The SDM supports a suite of waveforms, including QPSK, 8-PSK, 16-APSK, 32- APSK, 64-APSK, and 128-QAM. The Ka-band and TWTA deliver an output power on the order of 200 W with efficiency greater than 60%, and a passband of at least 3 GHz. The modem and the TWTA together enable a data rate of 20 Gbps with a low bit error rate (BER). The payload data rates for spacecraft in NASA s integrated space communications network can be increased by an order of magnitude (>10 ) over current state-of-practice. This innovation enhances the data rate by using bandwidth-efficient modulation techniques, which transmit a higher number of bits per Hertz of bandwidth than the currently used quadrature phase shift keying (QPSK) waveforms.

Simons, Rainee N.↗

Long-term variability in immersion-mode marine ice-nucleating particles from climate model simulations and observations

Abstract. Ice-nucleating particles (INPs) in the Southern Ocean (SO) atmosphere have significant impacts on cloud radiative and microphysical properties. Yet, INP prediction skill in climate models remains poorly understood, in part because of the lack of long-term measurements. Here we show, for the first time, how model-simulated INP concentrations compare with year-round INP measurements during the Macquarie Island Cloud Radiation Experiment (MICRE) campaign from 2017–2018. We simulate immersion-mode INP concentrations using the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1 (E3SMv1) by combining simulated aerosols with recently developed deterministic INP parameterizations and the native classical nucleation theory (CNT) for mineral dust in E3SMv1. Because MICRE did not collect aerosol measurements of super-micron particles, which are more effective ice nucleators, we evaluate the model's aerosol fields at other high-latitude sites using long-term in situ observations of dust and sea spray aerosol. We find that the model underestimates dust and overestimates sea spray aerosol concentrations by 1 to 2 orders of magnitude for most of the high-latitude sites in the Southern Hemisphere. We next compare predicted INP concentrations with concentrations of INPs collected on filter samples (typically for 2 or 3 d) and processed offline using the Colorado State University ice spectrometer (IS) in immersion freezing mode. We find that when deterministic parameterizations for both dust and sea spray INPs are used, simulated INPs are within a factor of 10 of observed INPs more than 60 % of the time during summer. Our results also indicate that the E3SM's current treatment of mineral dust immersion freezing in the SO is impacted by compensating biases – an underprediction of dust amount was compensated by an overprediction of its effectiveness as INPs. We also perform idealized droplet freezing experiments to quantify the implications of the time-dependent behavior assumed by the E3SM's CNT-parameterization and compare with the ice spectrometer observations. We find that the E3SM CNT 10 s diagnostic used in this study is a reasonable approximation of the exact formulation of CNT, when applied to ice spectrometer measurements in low-INP conditions similar to Macquarie Island. However, the linearized 10 s diagnostic underestimates the exact formula by an order of magnitude or more in places with high-INP conditions like the Sahara. Overall, our findings suggest that it is important to correct the biases in E3SM's simulated dust life cycle and update E3SM's INP parameterizations. INP prediction errors of 2 to 3 orders of magnitude can have considerable impacts on the simulated cloud and radiative properties in global climate models. On comparing INP concentrations during MICRE against ship-based campaigns, Measurements of Aerosols, Radiation, and Clouds over the Southern Ocean (MARCUS) and Antarctic Circumnavigation Expedition (ACE), we find that INPs from the latter are significantly higher only in regions closer to Macquarie Island. This alludes to the fact that physical, chemical and biological processes affecting INP concentrations as stimulated by the island could be partly responsible for the high INP concentrations observed at Macquarie Island during the MICRE campaign. Therefore, improvements to both aerosol simulation and INP parameterizations are required to adequately simulate INPs and their cloud impacts in E3SM. It will be helpful to include a parallel measurement of the size-resolved aerosol composition and explore opportunities for long-term measurement platforms in future field campaigns studying INP sources in remote marine regions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Using a focal-plane array to estimate antenna pointing errors

The use of extra collecting horns in the focal plane of an antenna as a means of determining the Direction of Arrival (DOA) of the signal impinging on it, provided it is within the antenna beam, is considered. Our analysis yields a relatively simple algorithm to extract the DOA from the horns' outputs. An algorithm which, in effect, measures the thermal noise of the horns' signals and determines its effect on the uncertainty of the extracted DOA parameters is developed. Both algorithms were implemented in software and tested in simulated data. Based on these tests, it is concluded that this is a viable approach to the DOA determination. Though the results obtained are of general applicability, the particular motivation for the present work is their application to the pointing of a mechanically deformed antenna. It is anticipated that the pointing algorithm developed for a deformed antenna could be obtained as a small perturbation of the algorithm developed for an undeformed antenna. In this context, it should be pointed out that, with a deformed antenna, the array of horns and its associated circuitry constitute the main part of the deformation-compensation system. In this case, the pointing system proposed may be viewed as an additional task carried out by the deformation-compensation hardware.

Zohar, S.↗

Error field correction strategies in preparation to MAST-U operation

In magnetic fusion devices, unwanted non-axisymmetric magnetic field perturbations, known as error fields (EF), can have detrimental effects on plasma stability and confinement. Such EFs may originate from several sources, such as axi-symmetric coil misalignments, coil feeds, 3D structures in the wall surrounding the plasma, presence of ferromagnetic materials near the plasma surface, blanket materials in future devices. To minimize their impact on plasma performance and on the available operational space, it is important to identify the EF sources and develop EF control strategies. MAST Upgrade (MAST-U) is a spherical tokamak which will operate in the near future after a series of enhancements from the previous MAST experiment. To deliver a machine with EF amplitude low enough to allow a high quality experimental programme, systematic analysis of the intrinsic EF sources has been carried out for poloidal eld (P) and divertor (D) coils. To deliver a machine with EF amplitude low enough to allow a high quality experimental programme, systematic analysis of the intrinsic EF sources has been carried out for poloidal field (P) and divertor (D) coils, whose magnetic eld measurements were available when writing this paper. Such measurements reveal that P and D coils are 3D deformed and thus are responsible for intrinsic EFs, with mainly n=1 and n=2 toroidal mode numbers. In preparation to MAST-U operation, both passive and active EF control strategies have been adopted for n=1 and n=2 EFs compensation. Passive EF control consisted of installing finely each D and P coil within MAST-U device so as to minimize the intrinsic n=1 EF amplitude. The optimal coil alignment has been determined based on magnetic eld measurements and the corresponding 3D electro-magnetic modelling, and envisaged coil shift and tilt of 3.2 mm and 0.7 mrad, respectively, in the case of P coil named P4. Conversely, active control will be use during MAST-U operation to reduce the n=2 EF which is associated mainly with P4 and P5, as well. Since these coils have been re-used from the MAST device, studies attempting n=2 EF control, based on MAST plasmas, have been modelled utilizing the MARS-F code to interpret experimental results in MAST and to give hints for future n=2 EF control studies in MAST-U. Here, a model-based control set for n=2 EF control has been identified which would allow for the minimization of rotation braking, of the resonant magnetic field at the q=2 and of the plasma displacement in MAST-U, simultaneously.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Digital Interface Board to Control Phase and Amplitude of Four Channels

An increasing number of parts are designed with digital control interfaces, including phase shifters and variable attenuators. When designing an antenna array in which each antenna has independent amplitude and phase control, the number of digital control lines that must be set simultaneously can grow very large. Use of a parallel interface would require separate line drivers, more parts, and thus additional failure points. A convenient form of control where single-phase shifters or attenuators could be set or the whole set could be programmed with an update rate of 100 Hz is needed to solve this problem. A digital interface board with a field-programmable gate array (FPGA) can simultaneously control an essentially arbitrary number of digital control lines with a serial command interface requiring only three wires. A small set of short, high-level commands provides a simple programming interface for an external controller. Parity bits are used to validate the control commands. Output timing is controlled within the FPGA to allow for rapid update rates of the phase shifters and attenuators. This technology has been used to set and monitor eight 5-bit control signals via a serial UART (universal asynchronous receiver/transmitter) interface. The digital interface board controls the phase and amplitude of the signals for each element in the array. A host computer running Agilent VEE sends commands via serial UART connection to a Xilinx VirtexII FPGA. The commands are decoded, and either outputs are set or telemetry data is sent back to the host computer describing the status and the current phase and amplitude settings. This technology is an integral part of a closed-loop system in which the angle of arrival of an X-band uplink signal is detected and the appropriate phase shifts are applied to the Ka-band downlink signal to electronically steer the array back in the direction of the uplink signal. It will also be used in the non-beam-steering case to compensate for phase shift variations through power amplifiers. The digital interface board can be used to set four 5-bit phase shifters and four 5-bit attenuators and monitor their current settings. Additionally, it is useful outside of the closed-loop system for beamsteering alone. When the VEE program is started, it prompts the user to initialize variables (to zero) or skip initialization. After that, the program enters into a continuous loop waiting for the telemetry period to elapse or a button to be pushed. A telemetry request is sent when the telemetry period is elapsed (every five seconds). Pushing one of the set or reset buttons will send the appropriate command. When a command is sent, the interface status is returned, and the user will be notified by a pop-up window if any error has occurred. The program runs until the End Program button is depressed.

Smith, Amy E.↗

Landsat Data Continuity Mission (LDCM) - Optimizing X-Band Usage

The NASA version of the low-density parity check (LDPC) 7/8-rate code, shortened to the dimensions of (8160, 7136), has been implemented as the forward error correction (FEC) schema for the Landsat Data Continuity Mission (LDCM). This is the first flight application of this code. In order to place a 440 Msps link within the 375 MHz wide X band we found it necessary to heavily bandpass filter the satellite transmitter output . Despite the significant amplitude and phase distortions that accompanied the spectral truncation, the mission required BER is maintained at < 10(exp -12) with less than 2 dB of implementation loss. We utilized a band-pass filter designed ostensibly to replicate the link distortions to demonstrate link design viability. The same filter was then used to optimize the adaptive equalizer in the receiver employed at the terminus of the downlink. The excellent results we obtained could be directly attributed to the implementation of the LDPC code and the amplitude and phase compensation provided in the receiver. Similar results were obtained with receivers from several vendors.

Garon, H. M.↗

A Novel Modeling Framework for Computationally Efficient and Accurate Real-Time Ensemble Flood Forecasting With Uncertainty Quantification

A novel modeling framework that simultaneously improves accuracy, predictability, and computational efficiency is presented. It embraces the benefits of three modeling techniques integrated together for the first time: surrogate modeling, parameter inference, and data assimilation. The use of polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) surrogates significantly decreases computational time. Parameter inference allows for model faster convergence, reduced uncertainty, and superior accuracy of simulated results. Ensemble Kalman filters assimilate errors that occur during forecasting. To examine the applicability and effectiveness of the integrated framework, we developed 18 approaches according to how surrogate models are constructed, what type of parameter distributions are used as model inputs, and whether model parameters are updated during the data assimilation procedure. We conclude that (1) PCE must be built over various forcing and flow conditions, and in contrast to previous studies, it does not need to be rebuilt at each time step; (2) model parameter specification that relies on constrained, posterior information of parameters (so-called Selected specification) can significantly improve forecasting performance and reduce uncertainty bounds compared to Random specification using prior information of parameters; and (3) no substantial differences in results exist between single and dual ensemble Kalman filters, but the latter better simulates flood peaks. The use of PCE effectively compensates for the computational load added by the parameter inference and data assimilation (up to ~80 times faster). Therefore, the presented approach contributes to a shift in modeling paradigm arguing that complex, high-fidelity hydrologic and hydraulic models should be increasingly adopted for real-time and ensemble flood forecasting.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Evolutionary Design of Controlled Structures

Basic physical concepts of structural delay and transmissibility are provided for simple rod and beam structures. Investigations show the sensitivity of these concepts to differing controlled-structures variables, and to rational system modeling effects. An evolutionary controls/structures design method is developed. The basis of the method is an accurate model formulation for dynamic compensator optimization and Genetic Algorithm based updating of sensor/actuator placement and structural attributes. One and three dimensional examples from the literature are used to validate the method. Frequency domain interpretation of these controlled structure systems provide physical insight as to how the objective is optimized and consequently what is important in the objective. Several disturbance rejection type controls-structures systems are optimized for a stellar interferometer spacecraft application. The interferometric designs include closed loop tracking optics. Designs are generated for differing structural aspect ratios, differing disturbance attributes, and differing sensor selections. Physical limitations in achieving performance are given in terms of average system transfer function gains and system phase loss. A spacecraft-like optical interferometry system is investigated experimentally over several different optimized controlled structures configurations. Configurations represent common and not-so-common approaches to mitigating pathlength errors induced by disturbances of two different spectra. Results show that an optimized controlled structure for low frequency broadband disturbances achieves modest performance gains over a mass equivalent regular structure, while an optimized structure for high frequency narrow band disturbances is four times better in terms of root-mean-square pathlength. These results are predictable given the nature of the physical system and the optimization design variables. Fundamental limits on controlled performance are discussed based on the measured and fit average system transfer function gains and system phase loss.

Masters, Brett P.↗