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Nested Pebble Bed Blanket (NesPeB)

Recent advances in magnetic confinement fusion technology have attracted billions of dollars of investments in startups from venture capitals and corporations, resulting in the development of devices aiming to demonstrate net energy gain in a self-heated burning plasma, such as SPARC (under construction) and others. However, future fusion power plants must operate in regimes that will require technologies far beyond current experience. According to a National Academies of Science, Engineering, and Medicine report, to have nuclear fusion power plants contributing in a timely manner to the planned reduction of atmospheric carbon dioxide, a pilot plant should be built by 2035, and it should demonstrate fusion power production and the performance of the tritium fuel system (requiring a high enough tritium breeding) by 2040. A recognized key technology gap by [26] is the fusion first wall and blanket since no current blanket concept is considered satisfactory or has been built and proven. The first wall and blanket in magnetic fusion reactors form a vital and complex system, as it must satisfy different functions such as power extraction, tritium breeding, plasma containment, radiation shielding, and safety. The list of design requirements is even longer: high enough tritium production for fusion self-sufficiency, low material activation, decay heat and shutdown dose rates, high thermal efficiency, high-capacity factor, high magnets-divertor-vacuum vessel-first wall life, low corrosion, low cost, and intrinsically safe (requiring minimal licensing). Despite fifty-plus years of research, the first wall and blanket concepts proposed suffer from fundamental technical problems and immaturity (TRL=2-3) that jeopardize the timely delivery of a commercial fusion power plant. A fusion first-wall blanket has never been built nor tested, and a "winning", practical functioning design requires enough engineering margins (high enough tritium breeding considering the uncertainty, etc.), manufacturing simplicity, ease of continuous operation, maintenance, and low cost. A new, groundbreaking blanket concept called "Nested Pebble Bed Blanket" (NesPeB) was developed at ORNL under the successful ARPA-E GAMOW FERMI project (patent application allowed by the USPTO). The NesPeB blanket concept addresses current blanket concepts' shortcomings and technical immaturity, paving the way for accelerated delivery of fusion power plants. NesPeB is based on nested pebbles, which are binary-sized lithium-ceramic pebbles enclosed in "Beryllide" perforated and coated spherical shells, which are also binary-sized, stacked on top of each other, forming a "bed" and cooled by Nitrogen gas also "sweeping" the Helium and Tritium generated by the neutron irradiation of Lithium; the vacuum vessel plasma facing material is Molybdenum-96 and -97 with the first wall cooled by Helium while the divertor armor is made of Tungsten. The simulations of the NesPeB blanket using Fusion Reactors Models Integrator (FERMI) are encouraging as they estimate a tritium breeding ratio (TBR) greater than 1.2 using natural Lithium, acceptable pressure drop, and excellent heat transfer properties. Furthermore, the NesPeB blanket is not limited by magneto-hydro-dynamics (MHD) effects, is designed for online refueling, relies on existing tritium extraction technologies, has a simple construction, and limits the corrosion and chemical reactivity problems. NesPeB has the potential to be transformational and disruptive since it can solve all the main, challenging technical problems of fusion device blankets and accelerate a pilot plant delivery for 10 or more years.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Autonomous Inversion of In Situ Deformation Measurement Data for Injection-Induced Stress Change

Geologic carbon storage (GCS) is likely to play a key part of the global effort to dramatically reduce CO2 emissions and perhaps even reduce atmospheric CO2 concentrations through carbon negative operations. A critical part of effort to commercialize and widely deploy this technology is developing the capability to rapidly assimilate real-time monitoring data into a form that will enable site operators to make decisions to manage the safe and efficient operations. Two of the risks associate with GCS are the risk of inducing fractures in the sealing formations that can create leakage pathways and the risk of inducing earthquakes of sufficient magnitude to cause public concern, property damage, or safety risks. To properly manage these risks the site operator needs to know the initial state of stress, the change in stress induced by injection, and the relationship between operational parameters such as injection rate and pressure and the change in stress. Current methods of estimating the change in stress require choosing the type of constitutive model and the model parameters based on core, log, and geophysical data during the characterization phase, with little feedback from operational observations to validate or refine these choices. These characterization methods interrogate the geologic formations using length scales, loading rates or magnitudes that are quite different from those encountered by the actual storage system. It is shown that errors in the assumed constitutive response, even when informed by laboratory tests on core samples, are likely to be common, large, and underestimate the magnitude of stress change caused by injection. Recent advances in borehole-based strain instruments and borehole and surface-based tilt and displacement instruments have now enabled monitoring of the deformation of the storage system throughout its operational lifespan. This data can enable validation and refinement of the knowledge of the geomechanical properties and state of the system, but brings with it a challenge to transform the raw data into actionable knowledge. We demonstrate a method that uses automatic differentiation and a finite-element based geomechanical model perform a gradient-based deterministic inversion of geomechanical monitoring data. This approach allows autonomous integration of the instrument data without the need for time consuming manual interpretation and selection of updated model parameters. Furthermore, only isotropic linear elasticity is considered in this paper, the approach presented is very flexible as to what type of geomechanical constitutive response can be used. The approach is easily adaptable to nonlinear physics-based constitutive models to account for common rock behaviors such as creep and plasticity. The approach also enables training of machine learning-based constitutive models by allowing back propagation of errors through the finite element calculations. This enables strongly enforcing known physics, such as conservation of momentum and continuity, while allowing data-driven models to learn the truly unknown physics such as the constitutive or petrophysical responses.

Burghardt, Jeffrey A.↗

Polarization Performance Simulation for the GeoXO Atmospheric Composition Instrument: NO2 Retrieval Impacts

NOAA's Geostationary Extended Observations (GeoXO) constellation will continue and expand on the capabilities of the current generation of geostationary satellite systems to support US weather, ocean, atmosphere, and climate operations. It is planned to consist of a dedicated atmospheric composition instrument (ACX) to support air quality forecasting and monitoring by providing capabilities similar to missions such as TEMPO (Tropospheric Emission: Monitoring Pollution), currently planned to launch in 2023, as well as OMI (Ozone Monitoring Instrument), TROPOMI (TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument), and GEMS (Geostationary Environment Monitoring Spectrometer) currently in operation. As the early phases of ACX development are progressing, design trade-offs are being considered to understand the relationship between instrument design choices and trace gas retrieval impacts. Some of these choices will affect the instrument polarization sensitivity (PS), which can have radiometric impacts on environmental satellite observations. We conducted a study to investigate how such radiometric impacts can affect NO2 retrievals by exploring their sensitivities to time of day, location, and scene type with an ACX instrument model that incorporates PS. The study addresses the basic steps of operational NO2 retrievals: the spectral fitting step and the conversion of slant column to vertical column via the air mass factor (AMF). The spectral fitting step was performed by generating at-sensor radiance from a clear-sky scene with a known NO2 amount, the application of an instrument model including both instrument PS and noise, and a physical retrieval. The spectral fitting step was found to mitigate the impacts of instrument PS. The AMF-related step was considered for clear-sky and partially cloudy scenes, for which instrument PS can lead to errors in interpreting the cloud content, propagating to AMF errors and finally to NO2 retrieval errors. For this step, the NO2 retrieval impacts were small but non-negligible for high NO2 amounts; we estimated that a typical high NO2 amount can cause a maximum retrieval error of 0.25×1015 molec. cm−2 for a PS of 5 %. These simulation capabilities were designed to aid in the development of a GeoXO atmospheric composition instrument that will improve our ability to monitor and understand the Earth's atmosphere.

Aaron Pearlman↗

Study of the space environmental effects on spacecraft engineering materials

The space environment in which the Space Station Freedom and other space platforms will orbit is truly a hostile environment. For example, the current estimates of the integral fluence for electrons above 1 Mev at 2000 nautical miles is above 2 x 10(exp 10) electrons/sq cm/day. and the proton integral fluence is above 1 x 109 protons/sq cm/day. At the 200 - 400 nautical miles, which is more representative of the altitude which will provide the environment for the Space Station, each of these fluences will be proportionately less; however, the data indicates that the radiation environment will obviously have an effect on structural materials exposed to the environment for long durations. The effects of this combined environment is the issue which needs to be understood for the long term exposure of structures in space. In order to better understand the effect of these hostile phenomena on spacecraft, several types of studies are worth performing in order to simulate at some level the effect of the environment. For example the effect of protons and electrons impacting structural materials are easily simulated through experiments using the Van de Graff and Pelletron accelerators currently housed in the Environmental Effects Facility at MSFC. Proton fluxes with energies of 700 Kev-2.5 Mev can be generated and used to impinge on sample targets to determine the effects of the particles. Also the Environmental Effects Facility has the capability to generate electron beams with energies from 700 Kev to 2.5 Mev. These facilities will be used in this research to simulate space environmental effects from energetic particles. Ultraviolet radiation, particularly in the ultraviolet (less than 400 nm wavelength) is less well characterized at this time. The Environmental Effects Facility has a vacuum system dedicated to studying the effects of ultraviolet radiation on specific surface materials. This particular system was assembled in a previous study (NAS8-38609) in order to perform a variety of experiments on materials proposed for the Space Station. That system has continued to function as planned and has been used in carrying out portions of the proposed study.

Obrien, Susan K.↗

MODELING THE PERFORMANCE OF THE LSST IN SURVEYING THE NEAR-EARTH OBJECT POPULATION

We have performed a detailed survey simulation of the LSST performance with regards to near-Earth objects (NEOs) using the project’s current baseline cadence. The survey shows that if the project is able to reliably generate linked sets of positions and times (a so-called “tracklet”) using two detections of a given object per night and can link these tracklets into a track with a minimum of three tracklets covering more than a ∼12 day length-of-arc, then they would be able to discover 62% of the potentially hazardous asteroids (PHAs) larger than 140 m in its projected 10 year survey lifetime. This completeness would be reduced to 58% if the project is unable to implement a pipeline using the two detection cadence and has to adopt the four detection cadence more commonly used by existing NEO surveys. When including the estimated performance from the current operating surveys, assuming these would continue running until the start of LSST and perhaps beyond, the completeness fraction for PHAs larger than 140 m would be 73% for the baseline cadence and 71% for the four detection cadence. This result is a lower completeness than the estimate of Ivezić et al.; however, the result is quite close to that of Jones et al., who show ∼70% completeness using the identical survey cadence as used here. We show that the traditional method of using absolute magnitude H<22 mag as a proxy for the population with diameters larger than 140 m results in completeness values that are too high by ∼5%. Our simulation makes use of the most recent models of the physical and orbital properties of the NEO and PHA populations, as well as simulated cadences and telescope performance estimates provided by the LSST project. The consistency of the results presented here when compared to those of Jones et al. demonstrates the robustness of these survey modeling approaches. We also show that while neither LSST nor a space-based IR platform like NEOCam individually can complete the survey for 140 m diameter NEOs, the combination of these systems can achieve that goal after a decade of observation.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The Database Query Support Processor (QSP)

The number and diversity of databases available to users continues to increase dramatically. Currently, the trend is towards decentralized, client server architectures that (on the surface) are less expensive to acquire, operate, and maintain than information architectures based on centralized, monolithic mainframes. The database query support processor (QSP) effort evaluates the performance of a network level, heterogeneous database access capability. Air Force Material Command's Rome Laboratory has developed an approach, based on ANSI standard X3.138 - 1988, 'The Information Resource Dictionary System (IRDS)' to seamless access to heterogeneous databases based on extensions to data dictionary technology. To successfully query a decentralized information system, users must know what data are available from which source, or have the knowledge and system privileges necessary to find out this information. Privacy and security considerations prohibit free and open access to every information system in every network. Even in completely open systems, time required to locate relevant data (in systems of any appreciable size) would be better spent analyzing the data, assuming the original question was not forgotten. Extensions to data dictionary technology have the potential to more fully automate the search and retrieval for relevant data in a decentralized environment. Substantial amounts of time and money could be saved by not having to teach users what data resides in which systems and how to access each of those systems. Information describing data and how to get it could be removed from the application and placed in a dedicated repository where it belongs. The result simplified applications that are less brittle and less expensive to build and maintain. Software technology providing the required functionality is off the shelf. The key difficulty is in defining the metadata required to support the process. The database query support processor effort will provide quantitative data on the amount of effort required to implement an extended data dictionary at the network level, add new systems, adapt to changing user needs, and provide sound estimates on operations and maintenance costs and savings.

Source record↗

Designing an Optimal Ensemble Strategy for GMAO S2S Forecast System

The NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) Sub-seasonal to Seasonal (S2S) prediction system is being readied for a major upgrade. An important factor in successful extended range forecasting is the definition of the ensemble. Our overall strategy is to run a relatively large ensemble of about 40 members up to 3 months (focusing on the sub-seasonal forecast problem), after which we sub-sample the ensemble, and continue the forecast with about 10 members (up to 12 months). Here we present the results of our testing of various ways to generate the initial perturbations and the validation of a stratified sampling approach for choosing the members of the smaller ensemble. For the initialization of the ensemble we propose a combination of lagged and burst initial conditions. To generate perturbations for the burst ensemble members we used scaled differences of pairs of analysis states (chosen randomly from the corresponding season) separated by 1-10 days. We consider perturbing separately the atmosphere and the ocean, or both. By varying the separation times between the analysis states, we are able to produce perturbations that resemble well-known modes of variability. Focusing on the ENSO SST indices, we found that all types of perturbations are important for the ensemble spread with, however, considerable differences in the timing of the impacts on spread for the atmospheric and oceanic perturbations.Our initial (larger) ensemble size was determined so as to maximize the skill of predicting some of the leading modes of boreal winter atmospheric modes (namely the NAO, PNA and AO). Since it is not feasible for us to run with the larger ensemble beyond about 3 months, we employ a stratified sampling procedure that identifies the emerging directions of error growth to subset the ensemble. By comparing the results from the stratified ensemble with that of the randomly sampled ensemble of the same size, we find that the former provides substantially better estimates the mean of the original large ensemble.

Borovikov, Anna↗

Real-time Erosion-Corrosion Detection in Waste Transfer Pipelines using Guided Wave Ultrasonic Sensors - 18368

A Fitness-for-Service (FFS) program for the Waste Transfer System has been implemented by the United States Department of Energy Hanford Site Tank Farm to examine structural parameters of the waste transfer systems in order to develop erosion/corrosion rates for relevant system components. The FFS information is acquired from opportunistic evaluations of pipelines that have been removed from service. The objective is to deliver more realistic estimates to the remaining useful life of the components and incorporate those estimates into future design/testing plans across the DOE complex. To aid to this objective, previous efforts at Hanford included the installation of sensors on some of the POR 104 components, to provide real time pipe wall thickness measurements. Due to certain limitations, alternative approaches for remote permanently mounted pipe wall ultrasonic thickness measurement systems have been investigated by FIU. Present research work is a supportive effort by FIU-ARC for DOE and WRPS, which investigates the option for remote-permanently mount guided wave ultrasonic transducer (UT) systems for HLW pipe wall thickness measurements. Specific applications include straight sections, elbows and other fittings used in jumper pits, evaporators, and valve boxes. The proposed method will provide information that will assist engineers with understanding the failure potential of HLW transfer components due to corrosion and erosion. This information can assist in determining if and when lines need to be removed, saving time and resources on the unneeded excavation of transfer lines. This information will also assist engineers with designing new transfer systems by establishing more detailed/accurate guidelines governing the life expectancy of the transfer system and its components. In the previous work, FIU has investigated the use of various ultrasonic systems that are either commercially available or used previously at Hanford and selected the most promising systems for further evaluation. The down-selected system is the guided wave UT sensor system from Permasense which is a UK based manufacturer. It is an integrated wireless sensor network system which used a patented technology for the acoustic wave propagation and has proven applications in the oil and gas industries. Scope of the present research includes the initial verification and validation of the Permasense Guided Wave sensor system as a potential erosion/corrosion detection system for carbon steel pipelines under static conditions. In future, the real-time erosion/corrosion detection will be investigated by measuring the thinning of the pipe sections by circulating simulants and continuous monitoring. This is achieved by passing abrasive and caustic solutions through an in-house designed pipe loop system. Results obtained provide realistic wear rates on 2 inch and 3 inch carbon steel pipes with straight sections and elbows using the Permasense UT sensor system. Thus, the present research delivers solutions for sensor evaluations, conducts bench scale testing followed by data acquisition and analysis for corrosion and erosion assessment. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Fast and Accurate Core Analysis by the Full-Immersion Pressure-Pulse Decay: Part 2—Practice and Demonstration

Summary This study continues the work of presenting a novel approach for making petrophysical assessments of tight core samples. This method, the full-immersion pressure-pulse decay (Hannon 2019), involves applying a rapid increase in pressure in a chamber surrounding the entire outer surface area of a cylindrical sample, shutting the system in, and monitoring the pressure decay in the chamber as it reaches a new equilibrium. A precursor article covered the numerical simulator designed to model flow through the sample, demonstrating its performance and accuracy in addition to providing a first-order comparison between the speed and shape of the pressure-decay responses of the full-immersion method with those of other similar transient methods. This study covers the parameter-estimation procedure and experimental verification through a proof-of-concept laboratory investigation. The investigations provided here demonstrate that under appropriate, achievable experimental conditions, the pressure data can be analyzed in such a way that returns an estimate of the porosity and apparent permeabilities both parallel and perpendicular to bedding from a single test performed on a single cylindrical sample. After determining these experimental conditions (the uniqueness window), this report outlines a data-inversion strategy to estimate the petrophysical properties (porosity, horizontal permeability, and vertical permeability) from each test. This strategy is put to the test through comparisons with measurements performed by a commercial core laboratory. A common set of samples recovered from an outcrop of a tight-gas sandstone formation were investigated using the full-immersion method, and their results are compared with those from conventional steady-state measurement procedures performed by the commercial laboratory. Comparisons between petrophysical characterizations of these samples, which had permeabilities between 25 nd and 2.3 μd, demonstrated close agreement in most cases. However, whereas steady-state measurements performed at the professional laboratory required 4 to 5 hours of testing time per measurement of a single permeability, similar assessments using the full-immersion technique, requiring approximately 5 to 10 minutes to complete, returned estimates of the horizontal and vertical permeability simultaneously. Additional analyses are provided to determine principal reasons of discrepancies in instances where agreement was not as strong. Based on lessons learned from these experiences, the report closes with suggestions on areas of improvement in the experimental approach. Once complete, these developments should propel this technology to fill a critical need to determine petrophysical properties (porosity and permeability) of tight rocks in a time-efficient manner and in a way that does not compromise their accuracy.

Energy & Fuels↗

IMAGING ANALYSIS OF THE HARD X-RAY TELESCOPE ProtoEXIST2 AND NEW TECHNIQUES FOR HIGH-RESOLUTION CODED-APERTURE TELESCOPES

Wide-field (≳100 deg{sup 2}) hard X-ray coded-aperture telescopes with high angular resolution (≲2′) will enable a wide range of time domain astrophysics. For instance, transient sources such as gamma-ray bursts can be precisely localized without the assistance of secondary focusing X-ray telescopes to enable rapid followup studies. On the other hand, high angular resolution in coded-aperture imaging introduces a new challenge in handling the systematic uncertainty: the average photon count per pixel is often too small to establish a proper background pattern or model the systematic uncertainty in a timescale where the model remains invariant. We introduce two new techniques to improve detection sensitivity, which are designed for, but not limited to, a high-resolution coded-aperture system: a self-background modeling scheme which utilizes continuous scan or dithering operations, and a Poisson-statistics based probabilistic approach to evaluate the significance of source detection without subtraction in handling the background. We illustrate these new imaging analysis techniques in high resolution coded-aperture telescope using the data acquired by the wide-field hard X-ray telescope ProtoEXIST2 during a high-altitude balloon flight in fall 2012. We review the imaging sensitivity of ProtoEXIST2 during the flight, and demonstrate the performance of the new techniques using our balloon flight data in comparison with a simulated ideal Poisson background.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The Slowly Varying Corona. I. Daily Differential Emission Measure Distributions Derived from EVE Spectra

Daily differential emission measure (DEM) distributions of the solar corona are derived from spectra obtained by the Extreme-ultraviolet Variability Experiment (EVE) over a 4 yr period starting in 2010 near solar minimum and continuing through the maximum of solar cycle 24. The DEMs are calculated using six strong emission features dominated by Fe lines of charge states viii, ix, xi, xii, xiv, and xvi that sample the nonflaring coronal temperature range 0.3–5 MK. A proxy for the non-Fe xviii emission in the wavelength band around the 93.9 Å line is demonstrated. There is little variability in the cool component of the corona (T < 1.3 MK) over the 4 yr, suggesting that the quiet-Sun corona does not respond strongly to the solar cycle, whereas the hotter component (T > 2.0 MK) varies by more than an order of magnitude. A discontinuity in the behavior of coronal diagnostics in 2011 February–March, around the time of the first X-class flare of cycle 24, suggests fundamentally different behavior in the corona under solar minimum and maximum conditions. This global state transition occurs over a period of several months. The DEMs are used to estimate the thermal energy of the visible solar corona (of order 10{sup 31} erg), its radiative energy loss rate ((2.5–8) × 10{sup 27} erg s{sup −1}), and the corresponding energy turnover timescale (about an hour). The uncertainties associated with the DEMs and these derived values are mostly due to the coronal Fe abundance and density and the CHIANTI atomic line database.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The Novel Hybrid Ab Initio Model of High-Performance Structural Alloys Design for Fossil Energy Power Plants

The current project developed a novel HT-CALPHAD/DFT approach, which can quickly design new high-performance structural alloys for the application of FE power plants. The PI will mainly take charge of high-throughput DFT simulations and computational thermodynamics of the selected multicomponent alloy systems for the FE power plant applications. At the end of the project, a novel hybrid model based on high throughput CALPHAD/DFT simulations and computational thermodynamics will be developed to provide guidance on how to identify multi-component new high-performance structural alloys with much less computational effort needed. It will address the extensive computation time needed for DFT on the new alloys design. In addition, it will also address the well-known headache of DFT, i.e. how to make the accurate prediction of the high-temperature equilibria. The novel hybrid model the PI proposed will not only be applied to the design of high-performance structural alloys in FE power plants but in many different applications, such as nuclear reactors. This hybrid modeling approach includes four sections: 1) HT-CALPHAD modeling of Al-Co-Cr-Ni-Fe system with FCC and BCC phase. In this section, 3561 non-equiatomic compositions were randomly generated in order to investigate the phase stability of single FCC and BCC phases. Meanwhile, we proposed a data screening procedure to screen out the good candidates within these compositions, considering the temperature range, average density, and melting temperature, etc. 2) Investigation of FCC-Cr lattice stability in Fe-Cr system. We systematically assessed the reliability of FCC-Cr lattice stability derived by DFT and CALPHAD approaches. Meanwhile, the Fe-Cr binary system was chosen as a case study to verify the Cr lattice stability obtained by both approaches. 3) High-throughput DFT modeling on elastic properties of Al-Co-Cr-Ni-Fe systems. We predicted and established the FCC quinary elastic constant database of the Al-Co-Cr-Fe-Ni systems at 0K by using special quasi-random structure (SQS) approach. The predictions will start with pure elements of Al-Co-Cr-Fe-Ni system and will be continued with binaries, ternaries, quaternaries, and finally the quinary compositions. 3) Modeling of temperature-dependent elastic properties in Al-Co-Cr-Ni-Fe systems. In this part, we predict the thermal expansion coefficient and elastic stiffness coefficient as a function of temperature by applying quasiharmonic approximation. With this approach, the elastic properties of HEAs at elevate temperature can be estimated.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

A global anthropogenic emission inventory of atmospheric pollutants from sector- and fuel-specific sources (1970–2017): an application of the Community Emissions Data System (CEDS)

Global anthropogenic emission inventories remain vital for understanding the sources of atmospheric pollution and the associated impacts on the environment, human health, and society. Rapid changes in today's society require that these inventories provide contemporary estimates of multiple atmospheric pollutants with both source sector and fuel type information to understand and effectively mitigate future impacts. To fill this need, we have updated the open-source Community Emissions Data System (CEDS) (Hoesly et al., 2019) to develop a new global emission inventory, CEDSGBD-MAPS. This inventory includes emissions of seven key atmospheric pollutants (NOx; CO; SO2; NH3; non-methane volatile organic compounds, NMVOCs; black carbon, BC; organic carbon, OC) over the time period from 1970–2017 and reports annual country-total emissions as a function of 11 anthropogenic sectors (agriculture; energy generation; industrial processes; on-road and non-road transportation; separate residential, commercial, and other sectors (RCO); waste; solvent use; and international shipping) and four fuel categories (total coal, solid biofuel, the sum of liquid-fuel and natural-gas combustion, and remaining process-level emissions). The CEDSGBD-MAPS inventory additionally includes monthly global gridded (0.5°?×?0.5°) emission fluxes for each compound, sector, and fuel type to facilitate their use in earth system models. CEDSGBD-MAPS utilizes updated activity data, updates to the core CEDS default scaling procedure, and modifications to the final procedures for emissions gridding and aggregation. Relative to the previous CEDS inventory (Hoesly et al., 2018), these updates extend the emission estimates from 2014 to 2017 and improve the overall agreement between CEDS and two widely used global bottom-up emission inventories. The CEDSGBD-MAPS inventory provides the most contemporary global emission estimates to date for these key atmospheric pollutants and is the first to provide global estimates for these species as a function of multiple fuel types and source sectors. Dominant sources of global NOx and SO2 emissions in 2017 include the combustion of oil, gas, and coal in the energy and industry sectors as well as on-road transportation and international shipping for NOx. Dominant sources of global CO emissions in 2017 include on-road transportation and residential biofuel combustion. Dominant global sources of carbonaceous aerosol in 2017 include residential biofuel combustion, on-road transportation (BC only), and emissions from the waste sector. Global emissions of NOx, SO2, CO, BC, and OC all peak in 2012 or earlier, with more recent emission reductions driven by large changes in emissions from China, North America, and Europe. In contrast, global emissions of NH3 and NMVOCs continuously increase between 1970 and 2017, with agriculture as a major source of global NH3 emissions and solvent use, energy, residential, and the on-road transport sectors as major sources of global NMVOCs. Due to similar development methods and underlying datasets, the CEDSGBD-MAPS emissions are expected to have consistent sources of uncertainty as other bottom-up inventories. The CEDSGBD-MAPS source code is publicly available online through GitHub: https://github.com/emcduffie/CEDS/tree/CEDS_GBD-MAPS (last access: 1 December 2020). The CEDSGBD-MAPS emission inventory dataset (both annual country-total and monthly global gridded files) is publicly available under https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3754964 (McDuffie et al., 2020c).

Mcduffie, Erin↗

Towards Autonomous Lunar Resource Excavation via Reinforcement Learning

To continue on a sustainable and flexible path, NASA needs to address the challenge of collecting and moving large amounts of regolith at the destination. NASA’s Regolith Advanced Surface Systems Operations Robot (RASSOR) is principally designed to mine and deliver regolith for In-Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU) processing. RASSOR’s design enables it to efficiently collect and deposit regolith, return collected material for processing, and myriad related ISRU activities. To reliably perform these operations on the lunar surface, RASSOR software and sensory systems need to be robust and maximize the information extracted from a reduced sensor payload. Herein, we present preliminary findings from the Intelligent Capabilities Enhanced RASSOR project. We created reduced-order simulation environments to develop autonomous trenching controllers via reinforcement learning and prototype state estimation architectures. The goal of reinforcement learning is for an agent to learn a policy (task strategy) through interactions with an environment. When the agent performs an action, a change occurs in environment state and a numerical reward is received which informs the agent whether the action performed was good or not. Since reinforcement learning algorithms learn through trial-and-error, a simulation is a desirable first environment for development and learning. We developed two simulations, the first is a 2D excavation simulation developed to facilitate parameter selection, and a 3D simulation developed using a game physics engine, to simulate simplified soil interactions and increase the fidelity of the dynamic models of the robotic agents. The development of this 3D simulation has enabled the training of additional sensing capabilities and research both at the granular mechanics and operations levels. We experimented with various virtual sensor payloads to identify a combination that enabled efficient excavation operation and learning. Our reward function is based on how much material is excavated per step. A penalty is also received for leaving the dig site and to smooth the acceleration of the drum arms. We implemented pseudo time-of-flight sensors to report distance from each drum to ground and the height above ground which was found to be more efficient than existing solutions. Our findings suggest that reinforcement learning for autonomous operations has learned viable trenching strategies within 3000 training episodes in our simplified 2D environment and helped identify desirable sensing capabilities, arrangements, and considerations such as the positioning of time-of-flight sensors. Future work includes expanding our simulation to more complex environments and scenarios, and transfer learning from simulation to RASSOR 2.0 hardware for deployment in the Regolith Test Bin at NASA's Kennedy Space Center.

rassor↗

High-Spectral Resolution Lidar (HSRL) Instrument Handbook

High-spectral-resolution lidar (HSRL) systems provide vertical profiles of optical depth, backscatter cross-section, depolarization, and backscatter phase function. All HSRL measurements are calibrated by reference to molecular scattering, which is measured at each point in the lidar profile. Like the Raman lidar (RL), but unlike simple backscatter lidars such as the micropulse lidar (MPL), this enables the HSRL to measure backscatter cross-sections and optical depths without prior assumptions about the scattering properties of the atmosphere. The depolarization observations allow robust discrimination between ice and water clouds. Rigorous error estimates can be computed for all measurements. A very narrow angular field of view reduces multiple scattering contributions. The small field of view, coupled with a narrow optical bandwidth, nearly eliminates noise due to scattered sunlight. The laser transmitter is a diode-pumped, frequency-doubled Nd:YAG laser. Narrow-band, single-frequency operation is provided by injection seeding with a single-frequency, cw-diode-pumped diode laser. The main laser cavity is maintained in resonance with the seed laser by adjusting the cavity length to minimize the time between the Q-switch trigger and the emission of the laser pulse. The emission wavelength is tuned via temperature control of the seed laser crystal and is locked to line #1109 of the iodine absorption spectra. Locking is accomplished by minimizing the transmission through a 2-cm-long iodine absorption cell. Use of a high-repetition-rate laser and expansion of the transmitted beam through a 400-mm telescope reduces the transmitted energy density to eye-safe levels. It is possible to look directly into the output beam without hazard. The receiver and transmitter use the same afocal telescope, simplifying the maintenance of stable alignment of the transmitter and receiver although the angular FOV is only 100 μrad. The small FOV and the 4-kHz repetition rate also limit the near-field signal strength, making it possible to record continuous profiles that start at an altitude of ~100 m and extend to 30 km using photon counting detectors. The small FOV also suppresses multiple scattering contributions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

CSP Systems Analysis - Final Project Report

The CSP Systems Analysis project was a three-year effort supporting the Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) Subprogram within the Solar Energy Technologies Office of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). The goal of the CSP Systems Analysis project was to provide timely and accurate CSP cost data to the DOE and predict performance and cost for emerging technologies that may impact research directions and industry investment. The project consisted of six, mostly independent tasks. Major accomplishments over the three-year period of performance were as follows. The NREL team maintained current cost estimates for CSP technologies by annual updates to the cost input parameters within NREL's System Advisor Model (SAM). SAM is a performance and cost simulation software that includes technology models for the primary CSP technologies. During the period from 2016 to 2018, the estimated cost within SAM's default CSP molten-salt power tower technology dropped from 13.0 to 11.1 cent/kWh (real dollars without incentives). Power cycle models for the supercritical carbon dioxide (sCO2) Brayton Cycle were developed and made an option within SAM's molten-salt power tower model. These models were subsequently used to evaluate the cost reduction potential of alternative salts. The partial-cooling model was found to provide the greatest cost-reduction potential due to its combination of efficiency and temperature differential across the turbine and thermal energy storage (TES) system. These studies were documented in two journal articles. NREL's optical modeling software SolTrace and SolarPILOT were made more versatile and released as open-source software to the CSP community. These tools help researchers and developers to model and optimize the optical performance of CSP collector systems. The new features were highlighted in a recorded webinar that can be accessed from the NREL SAM website. New models for solar-thermal systems, that is, applications for solar industrial process heat, were developed, validated, and installed within SAM. The analysis includes a 2018 review of linear collectors in the market that are tailored for solar process heat applications. In 2018 the NREL team also developed an annual simulation for a direct steam generation system integrated with a latent-heat TES system. This analysis was submitted for journal publication. The NREL team continued to support the exchange of information and development of CSP guidelines within the international CSP community of SolarPACES. Much of the work under this project was presented at SolarPACES, including the development of a modeling checklist to help CSP stakeholders standardize the models used for estimating CSP performance and cost. The CSP Systems Analysis project also supported DOE requests for tracking and reporting programmatic targets for the CSP Subprogram.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Cesium Ion Exchange Testing Using a Three-Column System with Crystalline Silicotitanate and Hanford Tank Waste 241-AP-107

Washington River Protection Solutions (WRPS) is working to support early production of immobilized low-activity waste by feeding Hanford tank supernate from tank farms to the Hanford Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant (WTP) Low-Activity Waste (LAW) facility. This goal incorporates the design of a Tank-Side Cesium Removal (TSCR) system, which in effect filters tank waste supernate and processes it through a cesium ion exchange medium to remove 137Cs. The 137Cs-depleted product is sent to the WTP for vitrification. Rovira et al. (2018) reported the successful Cs removal from Hanford tank 241-AP-107 waste (hereafter called AP-107) using crystalline silicotitanate (CST) ion exchange media manufactured by Honeywell UOP, LLC (product IONSIVTM R9140-B, Batch 2081000057) in a lead-lag column system. Since that testing, WRPS has changed the column design to a three-column system. WRPS requested a repeated study with AP-107 tank waste using a different batch of IONSIVTM R9140-B, Lot 2002009604, in a three-column format. A small-scale test platform was constructed to demonstrate solids filtration, Cs removal, and LAW vitrification and installed at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. This report describes the small-scale ion exchange testing system component of the test platform and the processing of approximately 8.55 L of filtered AP-107 supernate using CST, Lot 8056262-999, that passed through a 25-mesh filter. This report also describes the Cs ion exchange batch contact testing to determine the Cs distribution coefficient and the maximum Cs loading capacity in the AP-107 tank waste matrix. Batch contact testing helps to evaluate CST performance on tank waste supernate and is often used prior to processing tank waste through ion exchange columns to assess some performance metrics (e.g., 50% Cs breakthrough). Batch contact tests were performed with the filtered AP-107 tank waste at four Cs concentrations at a phase ratio of 200 (liquid volume to exchanger mass). The distribution coefficient (K d ) at the equilibrium condition of 9.2 µg Cs/mL (AP-107 feed condition) was determined to be 806 mL AP 107/g CST. With a CST bed density of 1.01 g/mL (<25 mesh CST), this K d corresponded to a predicted 50% Cs breakthrough of 814 bed volumes (BVs). The Cs load capacity at the equilibrium feed condition was determined to be 8.3 mg Cs/g dry CST. The three-column format testing was prototypic to the intended TSCR operations, albeit on a small scale with 10-mL CST beds. Flowrate was adjusted to match the CST contact time expected for the full-scale operation, i.e., matched bed volumes per hour (BV/h) flow rate. The feed was processed downflow through the lead column, then through the middle column, and then through the polish column. Loading continued at an average of 1.88 BV/h (1.83 to 2.04 BV/h range) until the entire available AP-107 feed was processed. The Cs-decontaminated product will be provided for vitrification testing. The lead column only reached 45% Cs breakthrough after processing 855 BVs of feed. The 50% Cs breakthrough was extrapolated to occur at ~900 BVs. This extrapolated 50% Cs breakthrough value differed from the batch contact estimate (814 BVs) by 13%. The waste acceptance criteria (WAC) or contract limit for the WTP LAW vitrification facility is 3.18E-5 Ci 137 Cs per mole Na. For the AP-107 tank waste, only 0.127% of the influent 137 Cs concentration may be delivered to the WTP; this required a Cs decontamination factor of 787. The Cs effluent from the middle column reached the WAC after processing 590 BVs. Cs breakthrough from the polish column began at 590 BVs, reaching 6.3E-3 µCi/mL or 4.3E-3% Cs breakthrough after processing 844 BVs of feed.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Sensitivity of the Tropical Atmosphere Energy Balance to ENSO-Related SST Changes: How Well Can We Quantify Hydrologic and Radiative Responses?

The continuing debate over feedback mechanisms governing tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and tropical climate in general has highlighted the diversity of potential checks and balances within the climate system. Competing feedbacks due to changes in surface evaporation, water vapor, and cloud long- and shortwave radiative properties each may serve critical roles in stabilizing or destabilizing the climate system. It is also intriguing that even those climate variations having origins internal to the climate system-- changes in ocean heat transport for example, apparently require complementary equilibrating effects by changes in atmospheric energy fluxes. Perhaps the best observational evidence of this is the relatively invariant nature of tropically averaged net radiation exiting the top-of-atmosphere (TOA) as measured by broadband satellite sensors over the past two decades. Thus, analyzing how these feedback mechanisms are operating within the context of current interannual variability may offer considerable insight for anticipating future climate change. In this paper we focus on how fresh water and radiative fluxes over the tropical oceans change during ENSO warm and cold events and how these changes affect the tropical energy balance. At present, ENSO remains the most prominent known mode of natural variability at interannual time scales. Although great advances have been made in understanding this phenomenon and realizing prediction skill over the past decade, our ability to document the coupled water and energy changes observationally and to represent them in climate models seems far from settled (Soden, 2000 J Climate). Our analysis makes use a number of data bases, principally those derived from space-based measurements, to explore systematic changes in rainfall, evaporation, and surface and top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiative fluxes, A reexamination of the Langley 8-Year Surface Radiation Budget data set reveals errors in the surface longwave emission due to use of biased SSTs. Subsequent correction allows subsequent use of this data set along with ERBE TOA fluxes to infer net atmospheric radiative beating. Further analysis of recent rainfall algorithms provides new estimates for precipitation variability in line with interannual evaporation changes inferred from the da Silva, Young, Levitus COADS analysis. The overall results from our analysis suggest an increase (decrease) of the hydrologic cycle during ENSO warm (cold) events at the rate of about 5 Wm-2 per K of SST change. This rate is slightly less than that which would be expected for constant relative humidity over the tropical oceans. Corresponding radiative fluxes seem systematically smaller resulting in a enhanced (suppressed) export of energy from the tropical ocean regions during warm (cold) SST events. Discussion of likely errors due to sampling and measurement strategies are discussed along with their impacts on our conclusions.

Robertson, Franklin R.↗