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DOE OSTI2025

Stable Machine‐Learning Parameterization of Subgrid Processes in a Comprehensive Atmospheric Model Learned From Embedded Convection‐Permitting Simulations

Modern climate projections often suffer from inadequate spatial and temporal resolution due to computational limitations, resulting in inaccurate representations of sub-grid processes. A promising technique to address this is the multiscale modeling framework (MMF), which embeds a kilometer-resolution cloud-resolving model (CRM) within each atmospheric column of a host climate model to replace traditional convection and cloud parameterizations. Machine learning offers a unique opportunity to make MMF more accessible by emulating the embedded CRM and reducing its substantial computational cost. Although many studies have demonstrated proof-of-concept success of achieving stable hybrid simulations, it remains a challenge to achieve near operational-level success with real geography and comprehensive variable emulation that includes, for example, explicit cloud condensate coupling. In this study, we present a stable hybrid model capable of integrating for at least 5 years with near operational-level complexity, including coarse-grid geography, seasonality, explicit cloud condensate and wind predictions, and land coupling. Our model demonstrates skillful online performance, achieving a 5-year zonal mean tropospheric temperature bias within 2 K, water vapor bias within 1 g/kg, and a precipitation root mean square error of 0.96 mm/day. Key factors contributing to our online performance include an expressive U-Net architecture and physical thermodynamic constraints for microphysics. With microphysical constraints mitigating unrealistic cloud formation, our work is the first to demonstrate realistic multi-year cloud condensate climatology under the MMF framework. Despite these advances, online diagnostics reveal persistent biases in certain regions, highlighting the need for innovative strategies to further optimize online performance.

Hu, Zeyuan [NVIDIA Corporation, Santa Clara, CA (U↗

DOE OSTI2025

Knowledge graph-aided Bayesian active learning for top- K genetic interaction discovery

In silico methods for predicting the effects of multi-gene perturbations hold great promise for advancing functional genomics, computational drug discovery, and disease modeling. However, the development of these predictive algorithms for mammalian systems has been hampered by limited datasets and high experimental costs. In this study, we present a Bayesian active learning framework designed to discover pairwise host gene knockdowns that effectively inhibit viral proliferation in an in vitro HIV-1 infection model. Our method leverages a biological knowledge graph as side information and employs a computationally efficient batch diversification approach. We evaluated this framework using a dataset of viral load measurements obtained from multi-day dual-gene depletion experiments, encompassing all possible pairwise knockdowns of over 350 host genes associated with HIV infection. We demonstrate that our framework rapidly identifies the most effective gene knockdown pairs for reducing viral load. Furthermore, we show that incorporating side information enhances performance during the early stages of active learning (low data regime), while our batch diversification strategy significantly boosts performance in later stages (high data regime). This framework is general and can be adapted to explore gene interactions in other contexts, such as synthetic lethality prediction and mapping epistatic effects across quantitative trait loci.

Computational biology and bioinformatics↗

DOE OSTI2025

Techno-economic and life cycle analyses of the synthesis of a platinum–strontium titanate catalyst

The heterogeneous platinum/strontium titanate (Pt/SrTiO 3 or Pt/STO) catalyst has garnered significant attention as a promising candidate for the hydrogenolysis of polyolefins to hydrocarbon oils. This study evaluates the cost and environmental impacts of a newly developed scalable Pt/STO catalyst production, which includes the synthesis of the STO support and the deposition of Pt onto the support. This two-step synthesis plays a significant role in assessing the commercial feasibility of the catalyst, while energy consumption during the process plays an important role in its environmental impacts. The CatCost and the Research and Development Greenhouse Gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy use in Technologies (R&D GREET) models were used, respectively, to perform techno-economic analysis (TEA) and life cycle analysis (LCA) of the newly developed catalyst. The TEA showed that the raw materials, accounting for approximately 76% of the total operation cost, has a profound effect on the estimated catalyst cost, mainly due to the platinum precursor. The LCA findings indicated that the catalyst production generates greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of 66 kg CO 2 e per kg, primarily due to the use of solvents and electricity in the process. The sensitivity analysis indicated that the total operating costs (OpEX), platinum precursor cost, and spent catalyst value (SCV) significantly impact the cost of the synthesized catalyst. Additionally, adopting solvent recovery strategies and using renewable electricity can reduce the GHG emissions of catalyst production to 29 kg CO 2 e per kg.

Heterogeneous Platinum/strontium titanate Catalyst↗

DOE OSTI2024

Accelerating science: The usage of commercial clouds in ATLAS Distributed Computing

The ATLAS experiment at CERN is one of the largest scientific machines built to date and will have ever growing computing needs as the Large Hadron Collider collects an increasingly larger volume of data over the next 20 years. ATLAS is conducting R&D projects on Amazon Web Services and Google Cloud as complementary resources for distributed computing, focusing on some of the key features of commercial clouds: lightweight operation, elasticity and availability of multiple chip architectures. The proof of concept phases have concluded with the cloud-native, vendoragnostic integration with the experiment’s data and workload management frameworks. Google Cloud has been used to evaluate elastic batch computing, ramping up ephemeral clusters of up to O(100k) cores to process tasks requiring quick turnaround. Amazon Web Services has been exploited for the successful physics validation of the Athena simulation software on ARM processors. We have also set up an interactive facility for physics analysis allowing endusers to spin up private, on-demand clusters for parallel computing with up to 4 000 cores, or run GPU enabled notebooks and jobs for machine learning applications. The success of the proof of concept phases has led to the extension of the Google Cloud project, where ATLAS will study the total cost of ownership of a production cloud site during 15 months with 10k cores on average, fully integrated with distributed grid computing resources and continue the R&D projects.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Needed computations and computational capabilities for stellarators

Stellarator plasmas are externally controlled to a degree unparalleled by any other fusion concept, magnetic or inertial. This control is largely through the magnetic fields produced by external coils. The development of fusion energy could be expedited by carrying out remarkably straight-forward computations to define strategies for exploiting this external control. In addition to these computations, which have a reliability limited only by competence, certain physics areas that affect the development of stellarator power plants should have a more intense study. The low cost and speed with which computations can be carried out relative to experiments have implications for the development of fusion. Computations should be used to develop a strategy that to the extent possible allows major issues to be circumvented. Required computations for this strategy are the subject of this paper.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Modeling prebiotic chemistries with quantum accuracy at classical costs

Molecular Dynamics (MD) simulations using classical force-fields are commonly employed in numerous scientific investigations. However, many natural processes involve bond breaking and quantum forces. This complexity is compounded by the presence of multiple competing length and timescales. For example, accurately modeling the thermodynamics and dynamics of a chemical reaction requires accounting for the concerted movements of numerous solvent molecules and ions with their own fast or slow timescales. While widely used static Density Functional Theory (DFT) calculations at 0 temperature can be beneficial for such investigations, they do not account for dynamics, and lack precision in describing the molecular environments. They particularly fail at correct, rigorous treatments of finite-temperature fluctuations, and thus generalization to experimentally relevant conditions. In PNAS Benayad et al develop a scalable, generalizable approach for designing Neural Network Potentials (NNPs) that can handle chemical reactivity in solvated systems with quantum accuracy at classical costs. Specifically, they study phosphoester bond formation and rupture, which is fundamentally relevant to the Phosphorus-Oxygen bond formation central to life, and especially for the RNA world hypothesis. The framework developed here has the potential to generalize to different chemical reactions of energy and biological relevance.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2022

Efficient emulation of relativistic heavy ion collisions with transfer learning

Measurements from the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) and the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider (RHIC) can be used to study the properties of quark-gluon plasma. Systematic constraints on these properties must combine measurements from different collision systems and methodically account for experimental and theoretical uncertainties. Such studies require a vast number of costly numerical simulations. While computationally inexpensive surrogate models (“emulators”) can be used to efficiently approximate the predictions of heavy ion simulations across a broad range of model parameters, training a reliable emulator remains a computationally expensive task. We use transfer learning to map the parameter dependencies of one model emulator onto another, leveraging similarities between different simulations of heavy ion collisions. By limiting the need for large numbers of simulations to only one of the emulators, this technique reduces the numerical cost of comprehensive uncertainty quantification when studying multiple collision systems and exploring different models.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Analysis of Energy Justice and Equity Impacts from Replacing Peaker Plants with Energy Storage

Transitions to low-carbon energy systems are essential to mitigating and adapting to climate change. Energy storage systems are a key component in achieving a viable decarbonized electric grid. However, decarbonization alone does not guarantee a fairer, more inclusive, or socially just energy system. Energy equity and justice should be integrated in energy system transitions to ensure benefits and burdens are shared equitably. In this paper, we discuss the relationship between energy storage and social equity by assessing the use of energy storage to replace natural gas-fired (NG) peaker plants. Peaker plants are disproportionately located near disadvantaged communities and tend to be older and high emitters of health-affecting fine particulate matter and other pollutants. This paper investigates the equity implications of NG peaker plant replacements with battery energy storage in the context of Washington State’s peaker plants to highlight the human-centered values of retiring the plants. The study performed production cost simulations using the latest Western Electric Coordinating Council Anchor Dataset 2030 case and found that total generation cost, locational marginal price, and total annual emissions were reduced with the replacements. These reductions will have equity benefits on local communities including access to clean air, enhanced health outcomes, and energy burden reductions.

Tarekegne, Bethel W.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Genome reduction improves octanoic acid production in scale down bioreactors

Microorganisms in large-scale bioreactors are exposed to heterogeneous environmental conditions due to physical mixing constraints. Nutritional gradients can lead to transient expression of energetically wasteful stress responses and as a result, can reduce the titres, rates and yields of a bioprocess at larger scales. To what extent these process parameters are impacted is often unknown and therefore bioprocess scale-up comes with major risk. Designing platform strains to account for these intermittent stresses before introducing synthesis pathways is one strategy for de-risking bioprocess development. For example, Escherichia coli strain RM214 is a derivative of wild-type MG1655 that has had several genes and whole operons removed from its genome based on their metabolic cost. In this study, we engineered E. coli strain RM214 (referred to as WG02) to produce octanoic acid from glycerol in batch-flask and fed-batch bioreactor cultivations and compared it to an octanoic acid-producing E. coli MG1655 (WG01). In batch flask cultivations, the two strains performed similarly. However, in carbon limited fed-batch bioreactor cultivations, WG02 provided a greater than 22% boost to biomass compared to WG01 while maintaining similar titres of octanoic acid. Reducing the biomass accumulation of WG02 with nitrogen limited fed-batch cultivation resulted in a 16% improvement in octanoic acid titre over WG01. Finally, in a scale-down system consisting of a stirred tank reactor (representing a well-mixed zone) and plug flow reactor (representing an intermittent carbon starvation zone), WG02 again improved octanoic acid titre by almost 18% while maintaining similar biomass concentrations as WG01.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Framework for Inverse Prediction Using Functional Response Data

Inverse prediction models have commonly been developed to handle scalar data from physical experiments. However, it is not uncommon for data to be collected in functional form. When data are collected in functional form, it must be aggregated to fit the form of traditional methods, which often results in a loss of information. For expensive experiments, this loss of information can be costly. In this study, we introduce the functional inverse prediction (FIP) framework, a general approach which uses the full information in functional response data to provide inverse predictions with probabilistic prediction uncertainties obtained with the bootstrap. The FIP framework is a general methodology that can be modified by practitioners to accommodate many different applications and types of data. We demonstrate the framework, highlighting points of flexibility, with a simulation example and applications to weather data and to nuclear forensics. Results show how functional models can improve the accuracy and precision of predictions.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Simulating metagenomic stable isotope probing datasets with MetaSIPSim

DNA-stable isotope probing (DNA-SIP) links microorganisms to their in-situ function in diverse environmental samples. Combining DNA-SIP and metagenomics (metagenomic-SIP) allows us to link genomes from complex communities to their specific functions and improves the assembly and binning of these targeted genomes. However, empirical development of metagenomic-SIP methods is hindered by the complexity and cost of these studies. We developed a toolkit, ‘MetaSIPSim,’ to simulate sequencing read libraries for metagenomic-SIP experiments. MetaSIPSim is intended to generate datasets for method development and testing. To this end, we used MetaSIPSim generated data to demonstrate the advantages of metagenomic-SIP over a conventional shotgun metagenomic sequencing experiment. Through simulation we show that metagenomic-SIP improves the assembly and binning of isotopically labeled genomes relative to a conventional metagenomic approach. Improvements were dependent on experimental parameters and on sequencing depth. Community level G + C content impacted the assembly of labeled genomes and subsequent binning, where high community G + C generally reduced the benefits of metagenomic-SIP. Furthermore, when a high proportion of the community is isotopically labeled, the benefits of metagenomic-SIP decline. Finally, the choice of gradient fractions to sequence greatly influences method performance. Metagenomic-SIP is a valuable method for recovering isotopically labeled genomes from complex communities. We show that metagenomic-SIP performance depends on optimization of experimental parameters. MetaSIPSim allows for simulation of metagenomic-SIP datasets which facilitates the optimization and development of metagenomic-SIP experiments and analytical approaches for dealing with these data.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Hemicellulose and starch citrate chitosan foam adsorbents for removal of arsenic and other heavy metals from contaminated water

Arsenic and other heavy metal contaminants in water are a significant global health threat. In this study, low-cost, sulfur-free, sustainable, water-insoluble materials with heavy metal remediation properties were produced from renewable resources such as starch, xylan, citric acid, and chitosan. Synthesized starch citrate-chitosan (SCC) foam and xylan citrate-chitosan (XCC) foam were flexible, porous, and elastic. The foams’ arsenic uptake in water was significantly greater than five different commercial metal remediating agents. The mercury and lead uptakes with the synthesized foams were similar to the performance of a commercial sulfur-based product, SorbaTech 450 (ST450). However, the cadmium and selenium uptakes were comparatively lower. The complexation of arsenic with oxygen and nitrogen of the SCC foam was shown with time-of-flight secondary ion mass spectrometry (TOF-SIMS). The XCC foam was also shown to adsorb potassium iodide (KI) at a similar rate to sodium chloride. This may be used to remediate water contaminated with radioactive materials, such as iodine 131.

Materials Science↗

DOE OSTI2020

Relation Inference among Sensor Time Series in Smart Buildings with Metric Learning

Smart Building Technologies hold promise for better livability for residents and lower energy footprints. Yet, the rollout of these technologies, from demand response controls to fault detection and diagnosis, significantly lags behind and is impeded by the current practice of manual identification of sensing point relationships, e.g., how equipment is connected or which sensors are co-located in the same space. This manual process is still error-prone, albeit costly and laborious.We study relation inference among sensor time series. Our key insight is that, as equipment is connected or sensors co-locate in the same physical environment, they are affected by the same real-world events, e.g., a fan turning on or a person entering the room, thus exhibiting correlated changes in their time series data. To this end, we develop a deep metric learning solution that first converts the primitive sensor time series to the frequency domain, and then optimizes a representation of sensors that encodes their relations. Built upon the learned representation, our solution pinpoints the relationships among sensors via solving a combinatorial optimization problem. Extensive experiments on real-world buildings demonstrate the effectiveness of our solution.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

DOE OSTI2023

Evaluating the Aftershock Duration of Induced Earthquakes

As the carbon sequestration community prepares to scale up the number and size of commercial operations, the need for tools and methods to assess and mitigate risks associated with these operations becomes increasingly important. One outstanding question is whether aftershocks of induced events decay quickly after injection operations cease or if aftershock activity persists for hundreds of years before returning to background levels more akin to tectonic events (Stein and Liu, 2009). Appropriate estimates of the aftershock duration impact several operational management decisions including mitigation strategies and post-injection monitoring for seismic activity. It is hypothesized that induced earthquake rates may diminish more quickly after injection is stopped, owing to higher stressing rates from injected fluids. Alternatively, it is plausible that only the first event in the sequence is induced by increased fluid overpressures, whereas subsequent events (e.g., aftershocks) respond to the stored tectonic stresses and static and dynamic stress changes due to the mainshock (Keranen et al., 2013). Further, if the aftershock duration can be linked to stressing rates due to injection, then it follows that operational strategies to reduce seismic hazard by reducing injection rates or volumes may be successful. However, if aftershocks of induced events are relieving stored tectonic stresses, then altering injection volumes may not alleviate ongoing seismic activity. Furthermore, knowledge of an aftershock duration could aid in the determination of an appropriate post-injection monitoring period for ongoing seismicity, which is a factor in overall operational costs. In this study, we model induced seismicity sequences in Oklahoma with a coupled Coulomb rate–state earthquake rate model (Dieterich, 1994; Kroll et al., 2017) to estimate aftershocks durations. Results for the current study indicate that elevated rates of aftershock activity following induced mainshocks return to background seismicity rates in less than five years, contrary to the tens to hundreds of years observed for tectonic aftershocks.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Solar-to-Grid: Trends in System Impacts, Reliability, and Market Value in the United States with Data Through 2019

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Solar-to-Grid: Trends in System Impacts, Reliability, and Market Value in the United States with Data Through 2020

With continued deployment of solar across the United States, assessing the interactions of solar with the power system is an increasingly important complement to studies tracking the cost and performance of solar plants. This project focuses on the historical contribution to reliability, trends in market value, and impacts on the bulk power system of solar deployed in the U.S. through the end of 2020. The scope of this analysis includes the seven organized U.S. wholesale power markets and is based on historical hourly solar generation profiles for each individual plant larger than 1 MW or county-level aggregate profiles for smaller solar. In addition, we present a limited set of results for ten utilities that are outside of the independent system operator (ISO)/regional transmission organization (RTO) markets.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Eliminating the Derate of Carbon Capture Retrofits (Rev. 2)

This study presents updated cost and performance information on retrofitting pulverized coal (PC) power plants with post-combustion carbon capture based on an advanced solvent process, based on NETL's Fossil Energy Baseline, Revision 4A. Cases considered include those using a fully integrated capture system, a case that provides capture system steam via a natural gas boiler, and a case that provides combined heat and power via a natural gas simple cycle system. Comparison cases include both new build and retrofit analysis at 90% and 95% carbon capture.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2024

MW-Class SOFC Pilot System Development

The overall objective of this project is to develop a low-cost, efficient, and reliable MWe-class Solid Oxide Fuel Cell (SOFC) power system towards commercial deployment in natural-gas fueled distributed generation applications. This report details the successful completion of all project objectives. The main goals of the project were to develop the conceptual design of a MWe-class SOFC power system, and to complete a techno-economic analysis (TEA) to determine system costs at low-volume production levels of >100MW per year. The combination of the BoP equipment cost and SOFC stack module factory cost provided the net fabrication cost of the selected 1MW SOFC system configuration. The results of the study showed that the cost target of less than $6000/kW is achievable for a FOAK 1MW SOFC system, exclusive of the first-time engineering cost. Also, the project included an exploratory analysis of the factory cost of next generation stack technology based on the Compact Solid-oxide Architecture (CSA) design at a high annual manufacturing rate of one-GW produced in a giga-factory. The BoP capital cost for one giga-watt power production was estimated using learning-curve analysis based on the historical manufacturing cost data related to similar high temperature Molten Carbonate fuel cell systems built by FuelCell Energy (FCE). The giga-factory manufactured SOFC cost estimate combined with the BoP cost at high production rates led to the estimation of entire system capital cost. Ultimately, a Cost of Electricity (COE) analysis was performed including natural gas fuel prices, installation and O&M costs, and stack replacement cost. The results of the techno-economic analysis were summarized by parametric estimation of COE for 1MW SOFC NOAK (Nth-of-a-Kind) system with natural gas prices as a variable parameter.

08 HYDROGEN↗