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A pattern recognition system for locating small volvanoes in Magellan SAR images of Venus

The Magellan data set constitutes an example of the large volumes of data that today's instruments can collect, providing more detail of Venus than was previously available from Pioneer Venus, Venera 15/16, or ground-based radar observations put together. However, data analysis technology has not kept pace with data collection and storage technology. Due to the sheer size of the data, complete and comprehensive scientific analysis of such large volumes of image data is no longer feasible without the use of computational aids. Our progress towards developing a pattern recognition system for aiding in the detection and cataloging of small-scale natural features in large collections of images is reported. Combining classical image processing, machine learning, and a graphical user interface, the detection of the 'small-shield' volcanoes (less than 15km in diameter) that constitute the most abundant visible geologic feature in the more that 30,000 synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images of the surface of Venus are initially targeted. Our eventual goal is to provide a general, trainable tool for locating small-scale features where scientists specify what to look for simply by providing examples and attributes of interest to measure. This contrasts with the traditional approach of developing problem specific programs for detecting Specific patterns. The approach and initial results in the specific context of locating small volcanoes is reported. It is estimated, based on extrapolating from previous studies and knowledge of the underlying geologic processes, that there should be on the order of 10(exp 5) to 10(exp 6) of these volcanoes visible in the Magellan data. Identifying and studying these volcanoes is fundamental to a proper understanding of the geologic evolution of Venus. However, locating and parameterizing them in a manual manner is forbiddingly time-consuming. Hence, the development of techniques to partially automate this task were undertaken. The primary constraints for this particular problem are that the method must be reasonably robust and fast. Unlike most geological features, the small volcanoes of Venus can be ascribed to a basic process that produces features with a short list of readily defined characteristics differing significantly from other surface features on Venus. For pattern recognition purposes the relevant criteria include (1) a circular planimetric outline, (2) known diameter frequency distribution from preliminary studies, (3) a limited number of basic morphological shapes, and (4) the common occurrence of a single, circular summit pit at the center of the edifice.

Burl, M. C.↗

Physical initialization using SSM/I rain rates

Following our recent study on physical initialization for tropical prediction using rain rates based on outgoing long-wave radiation, the present study demonstrates a major improvement from the use of microwave radiance-based rain rates. A rain rate algorithm is used on the data from a special sensor microwave instrument (SSM/I). The initialization, as before, uses a reverse surface similarity theory, a reverse cumulus parameterization algorithm, and a bisection method to minimize the difference between satellite-based and the model-based outgoing long-wave radiation. These are invoked within a preforecast Newtonian relaxation phase of the initialization. These tests are carried out with a high-resolution global spectral model. The impact of the initialization on forecast is tested for a complex triple typhoon scenario over the Western Pacific Ocean during September 1987. A major impact from the inclusion of the SSM/I is demonstrated. Also addressed are the spin-up issues related to the typhoon structure and the improved water budget from the physical initialization.

Krishnamurti, T. N.↗

An Accurate Potential Energy Surface for H2O

We have carried out extensive high quality ab initio electronic structure calculations of the ground state potential energy surface (PES) and dipole moment function (DMF) for H2O. A small adjustment is made to the PES to improve the agreement of line positions from theory and experiment. The theoretical line positions are obtained from variational ro-vibrational calculations using the exact kinetic energy operator. For the lines being fitted, the root-mean-square error was reduced from 6.9 to 0.08 /cm. We were then able to match 30,092 of the 30,117 lines from the HITRAN 96 data base to theoretical lines, and 80% of the line positions differed less than 0.1 /cm. About 3% of the line positions in the experimental data base appear to be incorrect. Theory predicts the existence of many additional weak lines with intensities above the cutoff used in the data base. To obtain results of similar accuracy for HDO, a mass dependent correction to the PH is introduced and is parameterized by simultaneously fitting line positions for HDO and D2O. The mass dependent PH has good predictive value for T2O and HTO. Nonadiabatic effects are not explicitly included. Line strengths for vibrational bands summed over rotational levels usually agree well between theory and experiment, but individual line strengths can differ greatly. A high temperature line list containing about 380 million lines has been generated using the present PES and DMF

Schwenke, David W.↗

Relationships Between the Bulk-Skin Sea Surface Temperature Difference, Wind, and Net Air-Sea Heat Flux

The primary purpose of this project was to evaluate and improve models for the bulk-skin temperature difference to the point where they could accurately and reliably apply under a wide variety of environmental conditions. To accomplish this goal, work was conducted in three primary areas. These included production of an archive of available data sets containing measurements of the skin and bulk temperatures and associated environmental conditions, evaluation of existing skin layer models using the compiled data archive, and additional theoretical work on the development of an improved model using the data collected under diverse environmental conditions. In this work we set the basis for a new physical model of renewal type, and propose a parameterization for the temperature difference across the cool skin of the ocean in which the effects of thermal buoyancy, wind stress, and microscale breaking are all integrated by means of the appropriate renewal time scales. Ideally, we seek to obtain a model that will accurately apply under a wide variety of environmental conditions. A summary of the work in each of these areas is included in this report. A large amount of work was accomplished under the support of this grant. The grant supported the graduate studies of Sandra Castro and the preparation of her thesis which will be completed later this year. This work led to poster presentations at the 1999 American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting and 2000 IGARSS meeting. Additional work will be presented in a talk at this year's American Meteorological Society Air-Sea Interaction Meeting this May. The grant also supported Sandra Castro during a two week experiment aboard the R/P Flip (led by Dr. Andrew Jessup of the Applied Physics Laboratory) to help obtain additional shared data sets and to provide Sandra with a fundamental understanding of the physical processes needed in the models. In a related area, the funding also partially supported Dr. William Emery and Daniel Baldwin in the preparation of their publication "Accuracy of in situ sea surface temperatures used to calibrate infrared satellite measurements". The remainder of this report is drawn from these publications and presentations.

Emery, William J.↗

Variational Continuous Assimilation of TMI and SSM/I Rain Rates: Impact on GEOS-3 Hurricane Analyses and Forecasts

We describe a variational continuous assimilation (VCA) algorithm for assimilating tropical rainfall data using moisture and temperature tendency corrections as the control variable to offset model deficiencies. For rainfall assimilation, model errors are of special concern since model-predicted precipitation is based on parameterized moist physics, which can have substantial systematic errors. This study examines whether a VCA scheme using the forecast model as a weak constraint offers an effective pathway to precipitation assimilation. The particular scheme we exarnine employs a '1+1' dimension precipitation observation operator based on a 6-h integration of a column model of moist physics from the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) global data assimilation system DAS). In earlier studies, we tested a simplified version of this scheme and obtained improved monthly-mean analyses and better short-range forecast skills. This paper describes the full implementation ofthe 1+1D VCA scheme using background and observation error statistics, and examines how it may improve GEOS analyses and forecasts of prominent tropical weather systems such as hurricanes. Parallel assimilation experiments with and without rainfall data for Hurricanes Bonnie and Floyd show that assimilating 6-h TMI and SSM/I surfice rain rates leads to more realistic storm features in the analysis, which, in turn, provide better initial conditions for 5-day storm track prediction and precipitation forecast. These results provide evidence that addressing model deficiencies in moisture tendency may be crucial to making effective use of precipitation information in data assimilation.

Hou, Arthur Y.↗

Mechanisms Regulating Deep Moist Convection and Sea-Surface Temperatures of the Tropics

Despite numerous previous studies, two relationships between deep convection and the sea-surface temperature (SST) of the tropics remain unclear. The first is the cause for the sudden emergence of deep convection at about 28 deg SST, and the second is its proximity to the highest observed SST of about 30 C. Our analysis provides a rational explanation for both by utilizing the Improved Meteorological (IMET) buoy data together with radar rainfall retrievals and atmospheric soundings provided by the Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Response Experiment (TOGA-COARE). The explanation relies on the basic principles of moist convection as enunciated in the Arakawa-Schubert cumulus parameterization. Our analysis shows that an SST range of 28-29 C is necessary for "charging" the atmospheric boundary layer with sufficient moist static energy that can enable the towering convection to reach up to the 200 hPa level. In the IMET buoy data, the changes in surface energy fluxes associated with different rainfall amounts show that the deep convection not only reduces the solar flux into the ocean with a thick cloud cover, but it also generates downdrafts which bring significantly cooler and drier air into the boundary-layer thereby augmenting oceanic cooling by increased sensible and latent heat fluxes. In this way, the ocean seasaws between a net energy absorber for non-raining and a net energy supplier for deep-convective raining conditions. These processes produce a thermostat-like control of the SST. The data also shows that convection over the warm pool is modulated by dynamical influences of large-scale circulation embodying tropical easterly waves (with a 5-day period) and MJOs (with 40-day period); however, the quasi-permanent feature of the vertical profile of moist static energy, which is primarily maintained by the large-scale circulation and thermodynamical forcings, is vital for both the 28 C SST for deep convection and its upper limit at about 30 C.

Sud, Y. C.↗

Numerical modeling studies of wake vortex transport and evolution within the planetary boundary layer

The proposed research involves four tasks. The first of these is to simulate accurately the turbulent processes in the atmospheric boundary layer. TASS was originally developed to study meso-gamma scale phenomena, such as tornadic storms, microbursts and windshear effects in terminal areas. Simulation of wake vortex evolution, however, will rely on appropriate representation of the physical processes in the surface layer and mixed layer. This involves two parts. First, a specified heat flux boundary condition must be implemented at the surface. Using this boundary condition, simulation results will be compared to experimental data and to other model results for validation. At this point, any necessary changes to the model will be implemented. Next, a surface energy budget parameterization will be added to the model. This will enable calculation of the surface fluxes by accounting for the radiative heat transfer to and from the ground and heat loss to the soil rather than simple specification of the fluxes. The second task involves running TASS with prescribed wake vortices in the initial condition. The vortex models will be supplied by NASA Langley Research Center. Sensitivity tests will be performed on different meteorological environments in the atmospheric boundary layer, which include stable, neutral, and unstable stratifications, calm and severe wind conditions, and dry and wet conditions. Vortex strength may be varied as well. Relevant non-dimensional parameters will include the following: Richardson number or Froude number, Bowen ratio, and height to length scale ratios. The model output will be analyzed and visualized to better understand the transport, decay, and growth rates of the wake vortices. The third task involves running simulations using observed data. MIT Lincoln Labs is currently planning field experiments at the Memphis airport to measure both meteorological conditions and wake vortex characteristics. Once this data becomes available, it can be used to validate the model for vortex behavior under different atmospheric conditions. The fourth task will be to simulate the wake in a more realistic environment covering a wider area. This will involve grid nesting, since high resolution will be required in the wake region but a larger total domain will be used. During the first allocation year, most of the first task will be accomplished.

Lin, Yuh-Lang↗

Subpixel Snow-Covered-Area and Snow Grain Size From Mixture Analysis with AVIRIS Data

Snow-covered-area (SCA) and snow grain size are crucial inputs to hydrologic and climatologic modeling of alpine and other seasonally snow-covered regions. SCA is necessary to parameterize energy budget calculations in climate models, to determine in which regions point snowmelt models are to be run for distributed snowmelt modeling efforts and to provide a basis from which estimates of snow water equivalent (SWE) may be made. Snow grain size, SWE and snow impurities determine the spectral albedo of snow, which controls the net solar flux at the snowpack surface. Snow albedo is of the utmost importance in snowmelt modeling, yet the difficulty with which grain size, SWE, and impurities are mapped has left the spatial distribution of snow albedo in alpine catchments poorly understood. The Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS) has been used to estimate sub-pixel snow-covered-area and snow grain size independently. In this paper we present a technique which improves estimates of both snow parameters by treating their mapping simultaneously.

Green Robert O.↗

Quantifying the Relative Impact of Model Microphysics Parameterizations and Scattering Models in Simulating Synthetic Radar and Microwave Radiometer Observations

Output from numerical weather models is often used to simulate observations from remote sensing instruments, for purposes ranging from data assimilation, synthetic retrievals of geophysical quantities, and optimization of observing systems. However, when hydrometeors are present, the level of detail provided by the weather model is generally insufficient to fully constrain the input to the radiative transfer model (RTM), and further assumptions must be made by the RTM user in order to produce synthetic observations. Using a hierarchy of models including cloud-resolving, double-moment, bin microphysical, and ice-habit predicting models, along with scattering properties from the OpenSSP, Atmospheric Radiative Transfer Simulator (ARTS) databases, as well as relatively simple geometries (e.g., cylindrical plates and columns), we demonstrate the spread in synthetic observation output and the extent to which it is reduced when microphysics is more strongly constrained by the model. As an intermediate step, an error budget for the RTM simulations was derived and from that we developed and will describe best practices for observation simulation (e.g., optimal number of hydrometeor size bins, truncation of the particle size distribution, angular resolution of scattering phase function). Some statistical comparisons with observations will also be presented.

Munchak, S. Joseph↗

Subpixel Snow-Covered-Area and Snow Grain Size from Mixture Analysis with Aviris Data

Snow-covered-area (SCA) and snow grain size are crucial inputs to hydrologic and climatologic modeling of alpine and other seasonally snow-covered regions. SCA is necessary to parameterize energy budget calculations in climate models, to determine in which regions point snowmelt models are to be run for distributed snowmelt modeling efforts and to provide a basis from which estimates of snow water equivalent (SWE) may be made.

hydrologic↗

The NANOGrav Nine-Year Data Set: Limits on the Isotropic Stochastic Gravitational Wave Background

We compute upper limits on the nanohertz-frequency isotropic stochastic gravitational wave background (GWB) using the 9 year data set from the North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves (NANOGrav) collaboration. Well-tested Bayesian techniques are used to set upper limits on the dimensionless strain amplitude (at a frequency of 1 yr(exp -1) for a GWB from supermassive black hole binaries of A(sub gw) less than 1.5 x 10(exp -15). We also parameterize the GWB spectrum with a broken power-law model by placing priors on the strain amplitude derived from simulations of Sesana and McWilliams et al. Using Bayesian model selection we find that the data favor a broken power law to a pure power law with odds ratios of 2.2 and 22 to one for the Sesana and McWilliams prior models, respectively. Using the broken power-law analysis we construct posterior distributions on environmental factors that drive the binary to the GW-driven regime including the stellar mass density for stellar-scattering, mass accretion rate for circumbinary disk interaction, and orbital eccentricity for eccentric binaries, marking the first time that the shape of the GWB spectrum has been used to make astrophysical inferences. Returning to a power-law model, we place stringent limits on the energy density of relic GWs, OMEGA(sub gw) (f) h squared less than 4.2 x 10(exp -10). Our limit on the cosmic string GWB, OMEGA(sub gw) (f) h squared less than 2.2 x 10(exp -10), translates to a conservative limit on the cosmic string tension with G mu less than 3.3 x 10(exp -8), a factor of four better than the joint Planck and high-l‚ cosmic microwave background data from other experiments.

Arzoumanian, Z.↗

Ionospheric calibration for single frequency altimeter measurements

This report investigates the potential of using Global Positioning System (GPS) data and a model of the ionosphere to supply a measure of the sub-satellite Total Electron Current (TEC) of the required accuracy (10 TECU rms) for the purpose of calibrating single frequency radar altimeter measurements. Since climatological (monthly mean) models are known to be in error by as much as 50 percent, this work focused on the Parameterized Real-Time Ionospheric Specification Model (PRISM) which has the capability to improve model accuracy by ingesting (adjusting to) in situ ionospheric measurements. A set of globally distributed TEC measurements were generated using GPS data and were used as input to improve the accuracy of the PRISM model. The adjusted PRISM TEC values were compared to TOPEX dual frequency TEC measurements (which are considered truth) for a number of TOPEX sub-satellite tracks. The adjusted PRISM values generally compared to the TOPEX measurements within the 10 TECU accuracy requirements when the sub-satellite track passed within 300 to 400 km of the GPS TEC data or when the track passed through a night time ionosphere. However, when the sub-satellite points were greater than 300 to 400 km away from the GPS TEC data or when a local noon ionosphere was sampled, the adjusted PRISM values generally differed by greater than 10 TECU rms with data excursions from the TOPEX TEC measurements of as much as 40 TECU (an 8 cm path delay error at K band). Therefore, it can be concluded from this analysis that an unrealistically large number of GPS stations would be needed to predict sub-satellite TEC at the 10 TECU level in the day time ionosphere using a model such as PRISM. However, a technique currently being studied at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) may provide a means of supplying adequate TEC data to meet the 10 TECU ionospheric correction accuracy when using a realistic number of ionospheric stations. This method involves using global GPS TEC data to estimate a global grid of vertical ionospheric TEC as a function of time (i.e. every one half hour) in a sun-fixed longitude frame. Working in a sun-fixed longitude frame, one is not limited by the spatial decorrelation distance of the ionosphere, but instead is limited more by the temporal correlations of the ionosphere in the sun-fixed frame which are a smaller effect. It is the opinion of the authors that using the global sun-fixed TEC grid data, in particular, ingesting it into PRISM, offers the best possibility of meeting the 10 TECU ionospheric correction accuracy requirement, and should be the subject of further study.

Schreiner, William S.↗

NN-OpInf

SAND2026-18878O The NN-OpInf tool is a PyTorch-based approach to operator inference that uses composable, structure-preserving neural networks to represent nonlinear operators. Operator inference is a machine learning method for inferring low-dimensional systems from data and polynomial models for system dynamics. However, many systems do not conform to polynomial structures, which NN-OpInf addresses by parameterizing operators with neural networks. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

SciDAC↗

Parameterized cross sections for Coulomb dissociation in heavy-ion collisions

Simple parameterizations of Coulomb dissociation cross sections for use in heavy-ion transport calculations are presented and compared to available experimental dissociation data. The agreement between calculation and experiment is satisfactory considering the simplicity of the calculations.

Norbury, John W.↗

Querying databases of trajectories of differential equations 2: Index functions

Suppose that a large number of parameterized trajectories (gamma) of a dynamical system evolving in R sup N are stored in a database. Let eta is contained R sup N denote a parameterized path in Euclidean space, and let parallel to center dot parallel to denote a norm on the space of paths. A data structures and indices for trajectories are defined and algorithms are given to answer queries of the following forms: Query 1. Given a path eta, determine whether eta occurs as a subtrajectory of any trajectory gamma from the database. If so, return the trajectory; otherwise, return null. Query 2. Given a path eta, return the trajectory gamma from the database which minimizes the norm parallel to eta - gamma parallel.

Grossman, Robert↗

The amplitude and spectral index of the large angular scale anisotropy in the cosmic microwave background radiation

In many cosmological models, the large angular scale anisotropy in the cosmic microwave background is parameterized by a spectral index, n, and a quadrupolar amplitude, Q. For a Harrison-Peebles-Zel'dovich spectrum, n = 1. Using data from the Far Infrared Survey (FIRS) and a new statistical measure, a contour plot of the likelihood for cosmological models for which -1 less than n less than 3 and 0 equal to or less than Q equal to or less than 50 micro K is obtained. Depending upon the details of the analysis, the maximum likelihood occurs at n between 0.8 and 1.4 and Q between 18 and 21 micro K. Regardless of Q, the likelihood is always less than half its maximum for n less than -0.4 and for n greater than 2.2, as it is for Q less than 8 micro K and Q greater than 44 micro K.

Ganga, Ken↗

Satellite Imagery Analysis for Nighttime Temperature Inversion Clouds

Clouds play important roles in the climate system. Their optical and microphysical properties, which largely determine their radiative property, need to be investigated. Among several measurement means, satellite remote sensing seems to be the most promising. Since most of the cloud algorithms proposed so far are daytime use which utilizes solar radiation, Minnis et al. (1998) developed a nighttime use one using 3.7-, 11 - and 12-microns channels. Their algorithm, however, has a drawback that is not able to treat temperature inversion cases. We update their algorithm, incorporating new parameterization by Arduini et al. (1999) which is valid for temperature inversion cases. This updated algorithm has been applied to GOES satellite data and reasonable retrieval results were obtained.

Kawamoto, K.↗