Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “deterministic”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 649 records · Page 36
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2018

Operator Trust Function for Predicted Drone Arrival

To realize the full benefit from autonomy, systems will have to react to unknown events and uncertain dynamic environments. The resulting number of behaviors is essentially infinite; thus, the system is effectively non-deterministic but an operator needs to understand and trust the actions of the autonomous vehicles. This research began to tackle non-deterministic systems and trust by beginning to develop a user trust function based on intent information displayed and the prescribed bounds on allowable behaviors/actions of the non-deterministic system. Linear regression shows promise on being able to predict a person’s confidence of the machine’s prediction. Linear regression techniques indicated that subject characteristics, scenario difficulty, the experience with the system, and confidence earlier in the scenario account for approximately 60% of the variation in confidence ratings. This paper details the specifics of the liner regression model – essentially a trust function – for predicting a person’s confidence.

Trujillo, Anna C.↗
NASA NTRS2020

An Examination of the Impact of Grid Spacing on WRF Simulations of Wintertime Precipitation in the Mid-Atlantic United States

A large set of deterministic and ensemble forecasts was produced to identify the optimal spacing for forecasting U.S. East Coast snowstorms. WRF forecasts were produced on cloud-allowing (~1-km grid spacing) and convection-allowing (3–4 km) grids, and compared against forecasts with parameterized convection (>~10 km). Performance diagrams were used to evaluate 19 deterministic forecasts from the winter of 2013–14. Ensemble forecasts of five disruptive snowstorms spanning the years 2015–18 were evaluated using various methods to evaluate probabilistic forecasts. While deterministic forecasts using cloud-allowing grids were not better than convection-allowing forecasts, both had lower bias and higher success ratios than forecasts with parameterized convection. All forecasts were underdispersive. Nevertheless, forecasts on the higher-resolution grids were more reliable than those with parameterized convection. Forecasts on the cloud-allowing grid were best able to discriminate areas that received heavy snow and those that did not, while the forecasts with parameterized convection were least able to do so. It is recommended to use convection-resolving and (if computationally possible) to use cloud-allowing forecast grids when predicting East Coast winter storms.

Snowstorms↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Robust Design Under Uncertainty of Hypersonic Inlets

The objective of this work is to optimize scramjet inlet designs under uncertainty at multiple fidelity levels. Optimizations are performed for both deterministic and stochastic conditions. For stochastic conditions, robust design is used to minimize the variance in system performance in addition to optimizing mean system performance. Uncertainty quantification is performed using non-intrusive polynomial chaos. Comparisons are made between low-fidelity analysis and high-fidelity analysis, as well as deterministic optimization and robust optimization. Results indicate that the general design trend of previous inlet optimization techniques is recovered for the external compression portion of an inlet. For the internal compression portion of an inlet, when viscous effects become more significant and boundary layer separation becomes more likely, the optimal trend departs from previous results. Multifidelity uncertainty quantification methods are found to substantially reduce the computation time of robust design while obtaining results that nearly match those of high-fidelity analysis. Robust optimization is found to decrease the standard deviation of throat Mach number by up to 40% compared to deterministic optimization. Changes in the design variables and total turning that lead to robust scramjet inlets are identified and linked back to fundamental physical principles through the theta-beta-Mach function.

Hypersonic↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NASA's Moon to Mars Autonomous Habitat Status

NASA is developing a strategy for sending humans to the Mars vicinity, known broadly as the Moon to Mars (M2M) Campaign. A critical part of this campaign is the development of in-space and surface habitation systems capable of substantially extending human presence beyond Low Earth Orbit (LEO). Mars missions feature an in-space transit habitat capable of supporting crews of four on ~850-1200-day missions, including transit to and from Mars and time in Mars orbit. Surface and transit habitats are complex elements which must keep crewmembers healthy and productive in deep-space environments with limited resources, long rescue times in contingency situations, and communication delays; all within constrained mass, volume, and power budgets. These habitats provide crew both living and workspace as well as most of the resources needed to support crew life. For deep space habitats, automation needs to be employed due to latency and for significant amounts of time when the habitats are uncrewed. Automation of systems is possible in space applications, but there are limitations. Outside of the Earth’s (or any) magnetosphere, radiation environments are harsh to both the physical hardware and the software components. Radiation (charged particles and ionizing electromagnetic waves) degrades and damages the hardware and causes single event upsets (SEUs) in software. If the hardware is damaged, data can be lost, or control actions not made. For software, SEUs cause algorithms to result in different solutions, or incorrect commands to be sent out. This means that algorithms and hardware used for deep space systems are different than what is used on Earth. Radiation-tolerant hardware is generations behind the current state-of-the-art hardware. Recent NASA missions, such as James Webb Space Telescope, continue to rely on older technologies such as the RAD750 processor, and the most advanced processors are still single core and less than 1.5 GHz. There have been attempts to use higher performance processors, but these often take multiple mitigation steps to handle the radiation environments, which limits the processing power and/or throughput. Current techniques for radiation mitigation have been redundancies, voting, physical separation of hardware, encasing materials, under-clocking hardware, and more. Some radiation mitigation techniques do provide benefits such as having a redundant system to improve the probability that a system will be available when needed. Autonomous software systems will have fewer interactions with humans on deep space missions and therefore need to be able to handle more off-nominal conditions. Microgravity also complicates the autonomous aspects of the mission because autonomous systems are usually built from known deterministic states, but microgravity causes physical objects to shift and move changing the location an autonomous system placed the object. Not only does the software need to be reliable and deterministic, losing resources due to a software error is not only costly but detrimental to reputation. The combination of having lower performance hardware and having to be able to verify and deterministically run software and an ever-changing environment makes deep space autonomous systems more complicated. Multiple gaps have been identified including verification of autonomous software algorithms (including artificial intelligence and machine learning), higher performance processors (graphics and general purpose), high speed networks (onboard and transmissions), memory, power distribution, data security, and variations from these. These gaps need to be closed for more advanced systems to be deployed and reduce the size, weight, and power impacts on the habitats.

Scott B. Tashakkor↗
NASA NTRS2023

Interpretation of Probabilistic Surface Ozone Forecasts: A Case Study for Philadelphia

The use of probabilistic forecasting has been growing in a variety of disciplines because of its potential to emphasize the degree of uncertainty inherent in a prediction. Interpretation of probabilistic forecasts, however, is oftentimes difficult, deterring users who may benefit from such forecasts. To encourage broader use of probabilistic forecasts in the field of air quality, a process for interpreting forecasts from a statistical probabilistic air quality surface ozone model [the Regression in Self Organizing Map (REGiS)] is demonstrated. Four procedures to convert probabilistic to deterministic forecasts are explored for the Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, metropolitan area. These procedures calibrate the predicted probability of daily maximum 8-h-average ozone exceeding a standard value by 1) estimating climatological relative frequency, 2) establishing a probability of an exceedance threshold as 50%, 3) maximizing the threat score, and 4) determining the unit bias ratio. REGiS is trained using 2000–11 ozone-season (1 May–30 September) data, calibrated using 2012–14 data, and evaluated using 2015–18 data. Assessment of the calibration data with the Pierce skill score suggests an exceedance threshold based on climatological relative frequency for the conversion from probabilistic to deterministic forecasts. Calibrated REGiS generally compares well to predictions from the U.S. national air quality model and operational “expert” forecasts over the evaluation period. For other probabilistic models and situations, different procedures of converting probabilistic to deterministic forecasts may be more beneficial. The methods presented in this paper represent an approach for operational air quality forecasters seeking to use probabilistic model output to support forecasts designed to protect public health.

Nikolay Balashov↗
DOE OSTI2012

Methods for Detector Placement and Analysis of Criticality Accident Alarm Systems

Determining the optimum placement to minimize the number of detectors for a criticality accident alarm system (CAAS) in a large manufacturing facility is a complex problem. There is typically a target for the number of detectors that can be used over a given zone of the facility. A study to optimize detector placement typically begins with some initial guess at the placement of the detectors and is followed by either predictive calculations of accidents at specific locations or adjoint calculations based on preferred detector locations. Within an area of a facility, there may be a large number of potential criticality accident sites. For any given placement of the detectors, the list of accident sites can be reduced to a smaller number of locations at which accidents may be difficult for detectors to detect. Developing the initial detector placement and determining the list of difficult accident locations are both based on the practitioner's experience. Simulations following fission particles released from an accident location are called 'forward calculations.' These calculations can be used to answer the question 'where would an alarm be triggered?' by an accident at a specified location. Conversely, 'adjoint calculations' start at a detector site using the detector response function as a source and essentially run in reverse. These calculations can be used to answer the question 'where would an accident be detected?' by a specified detector location. If the number of accidents, P, is much less than the number of detectors, Q, then forward simulations may be more convenient and less time-consuming. If Q is large or the detectors are not placed yet, then a mesh tally of dose observed by a detector at any location must be computed over the entire zone. If Q is much less than P, then adjoint calculations may be more efficient. Adjoint calculations employing a mesh tally can be even more advantageous because they do not rely on a list of specific difficult-to-detect accident sites, which may not have included every possible accident location. Analog calculations (no biasing) simply follow particles naturally. For sparse buildings and line-of-sight calculations, analog Monte Carlo (MC) may be adequate. For buildings with internal walls or large amounts of heavy equipment (dense geometry), variance reduction may be required. Calculations employing the CADIS method use a deterministic calculation to create an importance map and a matching biased source distribution that optimize the final MC to quickly calculate one specific tally. Calculations employing the FW-CADIS method use two deterministic calculations (one forward and one adjoint) to create an importance map and a matching biased source distribution that are designed to make the MC calculate a mesh tally with more uniform uncertainties in both high-dose and low-dose areas. Depending on the geometry of the problem, the number of detectors, and the number of accident sites, different approaches to CAAS placement studies can be taken. These are summarized in Table I. SCALE 6.1 contains the MAVRIC sequence, which can be used to perform any of the forward-based approaches outlined in Table I. For analog calculations, MAVRIC simply calls the Monaco MC code. For CADIS and FW-CADIS, MAVRIC uses the Denovo discrete ordinates (SN) deterministic code to generate the importance map and biased source used by Monaco. An adjoint capability is currently being added to Monaco and should be available in the next release of SCALE. An adjoint-based approach could be performed with Denovo alone - although fine meshes, large amounts of memory, and long computation times may be required to obtain accurate solutions. Coarse-mesh SN simulations could be employed for adjoint-based scoping studies until the adjoint capability in Monaco is complete. CAAS placement studies, especially those dealing with mesh tallies, require some extra utilities to aid in the analysis. Detectors must receive a minimum dose rate in order to alarm; therefore, a simple yes/no plot could be more useful to the analyst than a standard dose rate contour plot. Alarm systems that require several detectors to alarm simultaneously for a given accident would need to combine several yes/no plots in order to show accident sites where multiple detectors would be triggered. This could require a plot of 'areas of coverage' that is mapped over the building geometry. Several new utilities (which will be part of SCALE 6.2) were created to help with CAAS analysis.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2012

Analysis Of Ductile Crack Growth In Pipe Test In STYLE Project

The Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) is conducting structural analyses, both deterministic and probabilistic, to simulate a large scale mock-up experiment planned within the European Network for Structural Integrity for Lifetime Management non-RPV Components (STYLE). The paper summarizes current ORNL analyses of STYLE s Mock-up3 experiment to simulate/evaluate ductile crack growth in a cladded ferritic pipe. Deterministic analyses of the large-scale bending test of ferritic surge pipe, with an internal circumferential crack, are simulated with a number of local micromechanical approaches, such as Gurson-Tvergaard-Needleman (GTN) model and cohesive-zone model. Both WARP 3D and ABAQUS general purpose finite element programs are being used to predict the failure load and the failure mode, i.e. ductile tearing or net-section collapse, as part of the pre-test phase of the project. Companion probabilistic analyses of the experiment are utilizing the ORNL developed open-source Structural Integrity Assessment Modular - Probabilistic Fracture Mechanics (SIAM-PFM) framework. SIAM-PFM contains engineering assessment methodology such as the tearing instability (J-T analysis) module developed for inner surface cracks under bending load. The driving force J-integral estimations are based on the SC.ENG1 or SC.ENG2 models. The J-A2 methodology is used to transfer (constraint-adjust) J-R curve material data from standard test specimens to the Mock-up3 experiment configuration. The probabilistic results of the Mock-Up3 experiment obtained from SIAM-PFM will be compared to those generated using the deterministic finite element modeling approach. The objective of the probabilistic analysis is to provide uncertainty bounds that will assist in assessing the more detailed 3D finite-element solutions and to also assess the level of confidence that can be placed in the best-estimate finite-element solutions.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2013

Hybrid Technique in SCALE for Fission Source Convergence Applied to Used Nuclear Fuel Analysis

The new hybrid SOURCE ConveRgence accelERator (SOURCERER) sequence in SCALE deterministically computes a fission distribution and uses it as the starting source in a Monte Carlo eigenvalue criticality calculation. In addition to taking the guesswork out of defining an appropriate, problem-dependent starting source, the more accurate starting source provided by the deterministic calculation decreases the probability of producing inaccurate tally estimates associated with undersampling problems caused by inadequate source convergence. Furthermore, SOURCERER can increase the efficiency of the overall simulation by decreasing the number of cycles that has to be skipped before the keff accumulation. SOURCERER was applied to a representative example for a used nuclear fuel cask utilized at the Maine Yankee storage site {Scaglione and Ilas}. Because of the time constraints of the Used Fuel Research, Development, and Demonstration project, it was found that using more than 30,000 neutrons per cycle will lead to inaccurate Monte Carlo calculation of keff due to the inevitable decrease in the number of skipped and active cycles used with this problem. For a fixed uncertainty objective and by using 30,000 neutron per cycle, the use of SOURCERER increased the efficiency of the keff calculation by 60%compared to a Monte Carlo calculation that used a starting source distributed uniformly in fissionable regions, even with the inclusion of the extra computational time required by the deterministic calculation. Additionally, the use of SOURCERER increased the reliability of keff calculation using any number of skipped cycles below 350.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2013

Comparison Of Hybrid Methods For Global Variance Reduction In Shielding Calculations

For Monte Carlo shielding problems that calculate a mesh tally over the entire problem, the relative uncertainties computed for each voxel can vary widely. This can lead to unacceptably long run times in order to reduce the uncertainties in all areas of the problem to a reasonably low level. Hybrid methods using estimates from deterministic calculations to create importance maps for variance reduction in Monte Carlo calculations have been successfully used to optimize the calculation of specific tallies. For the global problem, several methods have been proposed that create importance maps that distribute Monte Carlo particles in such a way as to achieve a more uniform distribution of relative uncertainty across the problem. The goal is to compute a mesh tally with nearly the same relative uncertainties in the low flux/dose areas as in the high flux/dose areas. Methods based on only forward deterministic estimates and methods using both forward and adjoint deterministic methods have been implemented the SCALE/MAVRIC package and have been compared against each other by computing global mesh tallies on several representative shielding problems. Methods using both forward and adjoint estimates provide better performance for computing more uniform relative uncertainties across a global mesh tally.

FW-CADIS↗
DOE OSTI2013

A GENERALIZED STOCHASTIC COLLOCATION APPROACH TO CONSTRAINED OPTIMIZATION FOR RANDOM DATA IDENTIFICATION PROBLEMS

We present a scalable, parallel mechanism for stochastic identification/control for problems constrained by partial differential equations with random input data. Several identification objectives will be discussed that either minimize the expectation of a tracking cost functional or minimize the difference of desired statistical quantities in the appropriate $L^p$ norm, and the distributed parameters/control can both deterministic or stochastic. Given an objective we prove the existence of an optimal solution, establish the validity of the Lagrange multiplier rule and obtain a stochastic optimality system of equations. The modeling process may describe the solution in terms of high dimensional spaces, particularly in the case when the input data (coefficients, forcing terms, boundary conditions, geometry, etc) are affected by a large amount of uncertainty. For higher accuracy, the computer simulation must increase the number of random variables (dimensions), and expend more effort approximating the quantity of interest in each individual dimension. Hence, we introduce a novel stochastic parameter identification algorithm that integrates an adjoint-based deterministic algorithm with the sparse grid stochastic collocation FEM approach. This allows for decoupled, moderately high dimensional, parameterized computations of the stochastic optimality system, where at each collocation point, deterministic analysis and techniques can be utilized. The advantage of our approach is that it allows for the optimal identification of statistical moments (mean value, variance, covariance, etc.) or even the whole probability distribution of the input random fields, given the probability distribution of some responses of the system (quantities of physical interest). Our rigorously derived error estimates, for the fully discrete problems, will be described and used to compare the efficiency of the method with several other techniques. Numerical examples illustrate the theoretical results and demonstrate the distinctions between the various stochastic identification objectives.

Webster, Clayton G↗
DOE OSTI2016

Impact of delayed spark restrike on the dynamics of cyclic variability in dilute SI combustion

Spark-ignition (SI) engines can derive substantial efficiency gains from operation at high dilution levels. Additionally, the use of exhaust gas recirculation (EGR) for charge dilution also maintains compatibility with three-way catalysts by allowing stoichiometric operation. However, running high dilution levels increases the occurrence of misfires and partial burns, which induce higher levels of cyclic-variability in engine operation. This variability has been shown to have both stochastic and deterministic components. Factors such as in-cylinder turbulence and mixing-variations can be classified as stochastic; while, charge composition is the major source of the deterministic component through its non-linear effect on ignition and flame propagation characteristics. The use of these deterministic components has been previously explored to construct next-cycle control approaches that would allow stable operation near the edge of stability. Building on that work, this paper aims to understand the effect of spark strategies, specifically the use of a second spark (restrike) after the main spark, on engine operation at high dilution levels that were achieved using both excess air (i.e. lean combustion) and EGR.

Kaul, Brian C↗
DOE OSTI2018

Probabilistic Short-Term Wind Forecasting Based on Pinball Loss Optimization: Preprint

Probabilistic wind power forecasts that quantify the uncertainty in wind output have the potential to aid in the economic grid integration of wind power at large penetration levels. In this paper, a novel probabilistic wind forecasting approach based on pinball loss optimization is proposed, in conjunction with a multi-model machine learning based ensemble deterministic forecasting framework. By assuming the pointforecasted value as the mean at each point, one unknown parameter (i.e., standard deviation) of a predictive distribution at each forecasting point is determined by minimizing the pinball loss. A surrogate model is developed to represent the unknown distribution parameter as a function of deterministic forecasts. This surrogate model can be used together with deterministic forecasts to predict the unknown distribution parameter and thereby generate probabilistic forecasts. Numerical results of case studies show that the proposed method has improved the pinball loss by up to 35% compared to a baseline quantile regression forecasting model.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2018

APPLICATION OF THE FAVOR-OCI FRACTURE MECHANICS COMPUTER PROGRAM TO ASME CODE SECTION XI, IWB-3610 FLAW ACCEPTANCE CRITERIA EVALUATIONS

This paper presents an overview of added features in a new version of the FAVOR (Fracture Analysis of Vessels Oak Ridge) computer code called FAVOR-OCI. The original FAVOR code was developed at the US Department of Energy’s Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) under the sponsorship of the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). FAVOR is applied by US and international nuclear power industries to perform deterministic and probabilistic fracture mechanics analyses of commercial nuclear reactor pressure vessels (RPVs). Appli-cations of FAVOR are focused on insuring that the structural integrity of aging, and increasingly embrittled, RPVs is main-tained throughout their licensed service life. Based on the final ORNL release of FAVOR, v16.1, FAVOR-OCI extends existing deterministic features of FAVOR while preserving all prev-iously-existing probabilistic capabilities of FAVOR.The objective of this paper is to describe new deterministic features in FAVOR-OCI that can be applied to analytical evaluations of planar flaws. These evaluations are consistent with the acceptance criteria of ASME Code, Section XI, Article IWB-3610, including Subarticles IWB-3611 (acceptance based on flaw size) and IWB-3612 (acceptance based on applied stress intensity factor). The linear elastic fracture mechanics (LEFM) capabilities of FAVOR-OCI also incorporate the analytical procedures presented in the Nonmandatory Appendix A, Analysis of Flaws, Article A-3000, Method of KI Determination, for both surface and subsurface (embedded) flaws.The paper describes a computational methodology for determining critical values of fracture-related parameters that satisfy ASME Code Section XI acceptance criteria for flaws exposed to multiple thermal-hydraulic transients. These com-pute-intensive analyses can be carried out with a single execution of FAVOR-OCI. The new methodology determines critical values by solving for either the point of tangency or point of intersection between applied KI versus time histories and a user-selected fracture toughness material property (e.g., ASME KIc, FAVOR Weibull KIc, or Master Curve Weibull KJc) for surface or subsurface flaws. Situations where warm prestress conditions apply can also be addressed. The paper highlights a need for this new capability via applications to a recent independent review of safety cases for RPVs in two Belgian nuclear power plants (NPPs). That review required ASME Section XI assessments of several thousand embedded, quasi-laminar flaws in the wall of each RPV. Analysis results provided by the new capability contributed to the technical bases compiled from several sources by the Belgian nuclear regulatory agency (FANC) and eventually used by FANC to justify the restart of these NPPs.

Dickson, Terry L.↗
DOE OSTI2018

RISK-INFORMED EXTERNAL HAZARDS ANALYSIS BY EEVE TOOLKIT

Introducing risk-informed safety analyses for external events can bring sensible benefits to the nuclear power industry easing the regulatory burden introduced in the aftermath of the Fukushima accident. In the framework of the US-DOE Light-Water Reactor Sustainability program, Risk-Informed Margin Characterization project (LWRS-RISMC), research activities were conducted at INL for developing and applying a toolkit for performing risk-informed external hazards analysis. The “EEVE” (External EVEnts) toolkit, a chain of INL and state-of-the-art codes, was set-up and applied for simulating earthquake-induced transients with internal flooding in a PWR. This was done using methodology set-up for evaluating new data and determining critical areas that would benefit most from advanced analysis methods. The methodology is agnostic and it can be applied to other external hazards than just seismic and flooding (e.g., high winds, intense precipitation, etc.). The first step was the deterministic calculations for evaluating the propagation of a set of earthquakes and for determining the effects on a fire suppression system in an auxiliary building. These deterministic calculations were performed using the LS-DYNA and the OPENSEE structural mechanics codes. Probability failures and event trees of a generic 3-loops Westinghouse PWR were derived from a generic SAPHIRE model. Seismically induced Loss of Offsite Power, Station Blackout, and fire suppression piping failure events were considered. SAPHIRE code allowed a pre-screening of all possible branches of the event tree and a selection of those with the largest Core Damage Frequency increase for further analysis using dynamic PRA methods. INL's EMRALD code performed dynamic PRA calculations of the identified sequences, integrating risk analysis with on-line deterministic safety analysis results (seismically-induced internal flooding calculations by NEUTRINO code and system analysis by RELAP5-3D code). RELAP5-3D Best-Estimate calculations coupled with RAVEN statistical code were used for deriving limit surfaces as function of relevant transient parameters. This data was used by EMRALD for determining the final core status (core damage/core safe). Finally, the coupling of seismic, flooding, system thermal-hydraulic, uncertainty quantification and probabilistic risk analysis for an advanced risk-informed external hazards analysis was demonstrated. Results showed the sensible decrease in the level of conservatism achieved using the developed risk-informed methodology, which allowed also improving the evaluation of the failure modes and failure probabilities of different components.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2012

Towards a reference numerical scheme using MCNPX for PWR control rod tip fluence estimations

Recent occurrences of cracks and fissures on the cladding tubes of PWR control rod (CR) fingers employed in the Swiss reactors prompted the need to develop more reliable analytical methods for CR tip fluence estimations. To partly address this need, a deterministic methodology based on SIMULATE-3/CASMO-4 was in recent years developed at PSI. Although this methodology has already been applied for independent support to licensing issues related to CR lifetime, two main questions are currently being the center of attention for further enhancements. First, the methodology relies on several assumptions that have so far not been verified. Secondly, an assessment of the achieved accuracy has not been addressed. In an attempt to answer both these open questions, it was considered appropriate to develop an alternative computational scheme based on the stochastic MCNPX code with the objective to provide reference numerical solutions. This paper presents the first steps undertaken in that direction. To start, a methodology for a volumetric neutron source transfer to full core MCNPX models with detailed CR as well as axial reflector representations is established. On this basis, the assumptions of the deterministic methodology are studied for selected CR configurations for two Beginning-of-Life cores by comparing the spatial neutron flux distributions obtained with the two approaches for the entire spectrum. Finally, for the high-energy range (E> 1 MeV) and for a few CRs, the new MCNPX scheme is applied to estimate the accumulated fluence over one real operated cycle and the results are compared with the deterministic approach. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2012

Revised methods for few-group cross sections generation in the Serpent Monte Carlo code

This paper presents new calculation methods, recently implemented in the Serpent Monte Carlo code, and related to the production of homogenized few-group constants for deterministic 3D core analysis. The new methods fall under three topics: 1) Improved treatment of neutron-multiplying scattering reactions, 2) Group constant generation in reflectors and other non-fissile regions and 3) Homogenization in leakage-corrected criticality spectrum. The methodology is demonstrated by a numerical example, comparing a deterministic nodal diffusion calculation using Serpent-generated cross sections to a reference full-core Monte Carlo simulation. It is concluded that the new methodology improves the results of the deterministic calculation, and paves the way for Monte Carlo based group constant generation. (authors)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2013

Comparison of hybrid methods for global variance reduction in shielding calculations

For Monte Carlo shielding problems that calculate a mesh tally over the entire problem, the statistical uncertainties computed for each voxel can vary widely. This can lead to unacceptably long run times in order to reduce the uncertainties in all areas of the problem to a reasonably low level. Hybrid methods - using estimates from deterministic calculations to create importance maps for variance reduction in Monte Carlo calculations - have been successfully used to optimize the calculation of specific tallies. For the global problem, several methods have been proposed to create importance maps that distribute Monte Carlo particles in such a way as to achieve a more uniform distribution of relative uncertainty across the problem. The goal is to compute a mesh tally with nearly the same relative uncertainties in the low flux/dose areas as in the high flux/dose areas. Methods based on only forward deterministic estimates and methods using both forward and adjoint deterministic methods have been implemented in the SCALE/MAVRIC package and have been compared against each other by computing global mesh tallies on several representative shielding problems. Methods using both forward and adjoint estimates provide better performance for computing more uniform relative uncertainties across a global mesh tally. (authors)

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2016

Accelerated Monte Carlo Fission Source Convergence with Fission Matrix and Kernel Density Estimators

Accurate solution of the k-eigenvalue form of the Boltzmann radiation transport equation is required in many application areas, including nuclear reactor analysis and criticality safety. Monte Carlo calculations are free of the discretization errors inherent to deterministic methods and therefore offer the most accurate solutions. However, converging the fission source can be difficult for many problems, resulting in either a substantial computational overhead or potential inaccuracies that negate many of the benefits of using Monte Carlo methods. Difficulty in converging the fission source occurs for two distinct reasons. The first is the existence of a high dominance ratio in the problem (i.e. the largest and second largest eigenvalues have approximately the same magnitude). The second difficulty arises due to undersampling of the fission source because an insufficient number of particle histories are simulated. The first difficulty is shared by deterministic solvers when using power iteration, while the second difficulty is unique to Monte Carlo solvers. In practice, both difficulties may be present in the same problem, compounding the difficulty in achieving a converged distribution. In this paper, we consider a new approach to accelerate the convergence of the fission source based on combining the use of fission matrix methods with kernel density estimators (KDEs). It has been observed that deterministic fission matrix methods show the potential to accelerate the convergence of the fission source in Monte Carlo criticality calculations but may introduce significant additional noise for difficult problems. In this paper, we have demonstrated the use of a KDE approach in combination with the fission matrix acceleration. Although the addition of the KDE initially slows the convergence of the fission matrix acceleration, it decreases the magnitude of the noise while still offering significantly improved convergence relative to analog Monte Carlo. (authors)

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗