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At least 649 records · Page 36

On the subject of large-scale pool fires and turbulent boundary layer interactions

The role to which a realistic inflow turbulent boundary layer (TBL) influences transient and mean large-scale pool fire quantities of interest (QoIs) is numerically investigated. High-fidelity, low-Mach large-eddy simulations that activate low-dissipation, unstructured numerics are conducted using an unsteady flamelet combustion modeling approach with mutiphysics coupling to soot and participating media radiation transport. Three inlet profile configurations are exercised for a large-scale, high-aspect rectangular pool that is oriented perpendicular to the flow direction: a time-varying, TBL inflow profile obtained from a periodic precursor simulation, the time-mean of the transient TBL, and a steady power-law inflow profile that replicates the mean TBL crosswind velocity of 10.0 m/s at a vertical height of 10 m. Results include both qualitative transient flame evolution and quantitative flame shape with ground-level temperature and convective/radiative heat flux profiles. While transient fire events, which are driven by burst-sweep TBL coupling, such as blow-off and reattachment are vastly different in the TBL case (contributing to increased root mean square QoI fluctuation prediction and disparate flame lengths), mean surface QoI magnitudes are similar. Quadrant analysis demonstrates that the TBL configuration modifies burst-sweep phenomena at windward pool locations, while leeward recovery is found. In conclusion, positive fluctuations of convective heat flux correlate with fast moving fluid away from the pool surface due to intermittent combustion events.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

RF-Net 2: fast inference of virus reassortment and hybridization networks

Abstract Motivation A phylogenetic network is a powerful model to represent entangled evolutionary histories with both divergent (speciation) and convergent (e.g. hybridization, reassortment, recombination) evolution. The standard approach to inference of hybridization networks is to (i) reconstruct rooted gene trees and (ii) leverage gene tree discordance for network inference. Recently, we introduced a method called RF-Net for accurate inference of virus reassortment and hybridization networks from input gene trees in the presence of errors commonly found in phylogenetic trees. While RF-Net demonstrated the ability to accurately infer networks with up to four reticulations from erroneous input gene trees, its application was limited by the number of reticulations it could handle in a reasonable amount of time. This limitation is particularly restrictive in the inference of the evolutionary history of segmented RNA viruses such as influenza A virus (IAV), where reassortment is one of the major mechanisms shaping the evolution of these pathogens. Results Here, we expand the functionality of RF-Net that makes it significantly more applicable in practice. Crucially, we introduce a fast extension to RF-Net, called Fast-RF-Net, that can handle large numbers of reticulations without sacrificing accuracy. In addition, we develop automatic stopping criteria to select the appropriate number of reticulations heuristically and implement a feature for RF-Net to output error-corrected input gene trees. We then conduct a comprehensive study of the original method and its novel extensions and confirm their efficacy in practice using extensive simulation and empirical IAV evolutionary analyses. Availability and implementation RF-Net 2 is available at https://github.com/flu-crew/rf-net-2. Supplementary information Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Markin, Alexey (ORCID:0000000332809050)↗

Dynamic Phasor Modeling of Various Multipulse Rectifiers and a VSI Fed by 18-Pulse Asymmetrical Autotransformer Rectifier Unit for Fast Transient Analysis

To study the fast modelling of dynamic characteristics caused by power electronic switching, the dynamic phasor (DP) theory based on the time-varying Fourier decomposition and frequency shifting is firstly applied to the modelling of various multipulse rectifiers. The DP model for symmetrical 12-pulse phase-shifting reactor rectifier unit (PSR-RU) is derived with model order reduction, relations between ac and dc terminals, and Taylor series expansion. The DP model of asymmetrical 18-pulse autotransformer rectifier unit (AT-RU) is proposed based on the switching functions expressed in the DP domain. Meanwhile, the DP model of voltage source inverter (VSI) fed by asymmetrical 18-pulse AT-RU is built with the harmonic state-space (HSS) equations. Under both balanced and unbalanced conditions, the good calculation accuracy and rapid simulation speed of the developed DP models are validated by the detailed time-domain (TD) simulation.

42 ENGINEERING↗

On the Correspondence between Seasonal Forecast Biases and Long-Term Climate Biases in Sea Surface Temperature

In this paper, the correspondence between mean sea surface temperature (SST) biases in retrospective seasonal forecasts (hindcasts) and long-term climate simulations from five global climate models is examined to diagnose the degree to which systematic SST biases develop on seasonal time scales. The hindcasts are from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble and the climate simulations are from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. The analysis suggests that most robust climatological SST biases begin to form within 6 months of a realistically initialized integration, although the growth rate varies with location, time, and model. In regions with large biases, interannual variability and ensemble spread is much smaller than the climatological bias. Additional ensemble hindcasts of the Community Earth System Model with a different initialization method suggest that initial conditions do matter for the initial bias growth, but the overall global bias patterns are similar after 6 months. A hindcast approach is more suitable to study biases over the tropics and sub-tropics than over the extra-tropics because of smaller initial biases and faster bias growth. The rapid emergence of SST biases makes it likely that fast processes with times scales shorter than the seasonal time scales in the atmosphere and upper ocean are responsible for a substantial part of the climatological SST biases. Studying the growth of biases may provide important clues to the causes and ultimately the amelioration of these biases. Further, initialized seasonal hindcasts can profitably be used in the development of high-resolution coupled ocean-atmosphere models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Putting multipoint kinetics to the test: preliminary analysis of the MUSE-4 experiment with APOLLO3

Modeling neutron kinetics is a challenging task and over the years, several approaches have been developed offering different tradeoffs between precision and cost. Probably the most popular one is point kinetics (PK), which, despite being very cheap, provides good results for many applications. One of the limitations of PK is that it is not able to model effects that happen before the prompt jump time scale. In practice, applications, where those time scales are interesting, are rare and those for which experimental data are available are even rarer. One of those cases is the MUSE-4 experiment for which the focus is on the very fast behavior and where we have no thermal feedback. As we have shown in a recent paper, a simple extension of PK, known as multipoint kinetics (MPK), can overcome this limitation. In this paper, which is intended as a preliminary study, we show how a simple MPK model can qualitatively reproduce the fast behavior that we cannot model with PK. Moreover, we will show how to exploit its low cost and compact form to model also slow effects as the precursors built up, behaviours that are not affordable to model with more expensive techniques, such as kinetic Monte Carlo simulations. For the periodic pulse transients with no feedbacks we will also provide an analytical solution in closed form. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

An intra-node HPC network architecture with nanosecond-scale photonic switches

We propose a single-stage network architecture for intra-node connectivity that makes use of nanosecond-scale photonic switches. Although buffering at the switch points is of vital importance for complex multi-stage networks, this is not the case for smaller-scale single-stage networks where the end nodes are located only one hop apart. By limiting the buffering to the end points, the proposed architecture manages to minimize the required electro-optic and opto-electronic conversions, leading in this way to both low end-to-end latency and better energy efficiency. Combining these advantages with nanosecond-scale switching times can allow for high-throughput operation even for frequent switch reconfigurations. The performance of the proposed architecture is evaluated via discrete-event simulations for a wide range of synthetic-traffic cases. The simulation results show that high-throughput operation of ≥90% can be achieved even for small message sizes, i.e., 32 KB for all-to-all communication and 2 KB for uniform random traffic, at a data rate of 400 Gb/s and a switch reconfiguration time of ≤72 ns. Moreover, if 100-ns reconfiguration times are achievable as opposed to 150-ns, then for the all-to-all traffic case a 16% and 28% reduction in completion time can be achieved for message sizes of 8 KB and 1 KB, respectively. In a forthcoming era of optically interfaced processors and accelerators, nanosecond-scale photonic switches appear as a highly promising solution for keeping up with the intra-node bandwidth scaling due to their high-bandwidth, low-latency and fast-switching capabilities.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Dynamics and observational signatures of core-collapse supernovae with central engines: hydrodynamics simulations with Monte Carlo post-processing

A long-lived central engine embedded in expanding supernova ejecta can alter the dynamics and observational signatures of the event, producing an unusually luminous, energetic, and/or rapidly evolving transient. We use 2D hydrodynamics simulations to study the effect of a central energy source, varying the amount, rate, and isotropy of the energy deposition. We post-process the results with a time-dependent Monte Carlo radiation transport code to extract observational signatures. The engine excavates a bubble at the centre of the ejecta, which becomes Rayleigh–Taylor unstable. Sufficiently powerful engines are able to break through the edge of the bubble and accelerate, shred, and compositionally mix the entire ejecta. The breakout of the engine-driven wind occurs at distinct rupture points, and the outflowing high-velocity gas may eventually give rise to radio emission. The dynamical impact of the engine leads to faster rising optical light curves, with photon escape facilitated by the faster expansion of the ejecta and the opening of low-density channels. For models with strong engines, the spectra are initially hot and featureless, but later evolve to resemble those of broad-line Ic supernovae. Under certain conditions, line emission from ionized, low-velocity material near the centre of the ejecta may be able to escape and produce narrow emission similar to that seen in interacting supernovae. We discuss how variability in the engine energy reservoir and injection rate could give rise to a heterogeneous set of events spanning multiple observational classes, including the fast blue optical transients, broad-line Ic supernovae, and superluminous supernovae.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Fast and flexible analysis of direct dark matter search data with machine learning

We present the results from combining machine learning with the profile likelihood fit procedure, using data from the Large Underground Xenon (LUX) dark matter experiment. This approach demonstrates reduction in computation time by a factor of 30 when compared with the previous approach, without loss of performance on real data. We establish its flexibility to capture non-linear correlations between variables (such as smearing in light and charge signals due to position variation) by achieving equal performance using pulse areas with and without position-corrections applied. Its efficiency and scalability furthermore enables searching for dark matter using additional variables without significant computational burden. We demonstrate this by including a light signal pulse shape variable alongside more traditional inputs such as light and charge signal strengths. Furthermore, this technique can be exploited by future dark matter experiments to make use of additional information, reduce computational resources needed for signal searches and simulations, and make inclusion of physical nuisance parameters in fits tractable.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Impact of Urban Pollution on Organic-Mediated New-Particle Formation and Particle Number Concentration in the Amazon Rainforest

A major challenge in assessing the impact of aerosols on climate change is to understand how human activities change aerosol loading and properties relative to the pristine-preindustrial baseline. Here we combine chemical transport simulation and field measurements to investigate the effect of anthropogenic pollution from an isolated metropolis on particle number concentration over the preindustrial-like Amazon rainforest through various new-particle formation (NPF) mechanisms and primary particle emissions. To represent organic-mediated NPF, we employ a state-of-the-art model that systematically simulates the formation chemistry and thermodynamics of extremely low volatility organic compounds as well as their roles in NPF processes, and further update the model to improve organic NPF simulations under human-influenced conditions. Results show that urban pollution from the metropolis increases particle number concentration by a factor of 5–25 over the downwind region (within 200 km from city center) compared to background conditions. Overall, our model indicates that NPF contributes over 70% of the total particle number in the downwind region except immediately adjacent to the sources. Among different NPF mechanisms, the ternary NPF involving organics and sulfuric acid overwhelmingly dominates. The improved understanding of particle formation mechanisms will help better quantify anthropogenic aerosol forcing from pristine-preindustrial times to present day.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Time-dependent-bases with local CUR decomposition method for accelerating turbulent combustion simulations

Here, this study presents a novel reduced-order modeling framework, Time-Dependent Bases with Local CUR decomposition (TDB-L-CUR), designed to efficiently and accurately approximate the species transport equations in reacting flow simulations. The method extends the existing TDB-CUR approach for chemically reacting flows (Jung et al. Comput. Methods Appl. Mech. Engrg. 437 (2025) 117758), which leverages matrix decomposition techniques to form a global-in-space, time-dependent low-dimensional manifold. While TDB-CUR performs well in homogeneous systems, it may be less well-suited to spatially heterogeneous systems such as turbulent flames, where higher-rank approximations are typically required. The proposed TDB-L-CUR framework introduces two methodological extensions to the baseline approach. First, it applies unsupervised clustering to partition the physical domain into distinct regions, enabling spatially localized manifold construction, thereby reducing the rank required for the reduced-order representation. Second, it incorporates a computational singular perturbation (CSP)-based scheme for identifying and penalizing fast species, allowing for spatio-temporally adaptive mitigation of chemical stiffness. The proposed framework is validated on a hierarchy of test cases, including a one-dimensional premixed flame, a two-dimensional nonpremixed ignition case with vortex interaction, and a three-dimensional turbulent premixed flame. TDB-L-CUR significantly improves accuracy over TDB-CUR while further reducing computational cost. The fully on-the-fly formulation of TDB-L-CUR (i.e., requiring no offline training or prior knowledge) makes it a robust and scalable tool for reduced-order modeling of reactive flows.

Local manifold↗

Optimizing multigrid reduction-in-time and Parareal coarse-grid operators for linear advection

Parallel-in-time methods, such as multigrid reduction-in-time (MGRIT) and Parareal, provide an attractive option for increasing concurrency when simulating time-dependent partial differential equations (PDEs) in modern high-performance computing environments. While these techniques have been very successful for parabolic equations, it has often been observed that their performance suffers dramatically when applied to advection-dominated problems or purely hyperbolic PDEs using standard rediscretization approaches on coarse grids. In this paper, we apply MGRIT or Parareal to the constant-coefficient linear advection equation, appealing to existing convergence theory to provide insight into the typically nonscalable or even divergent behavior of these solvers for this problem. To overcome these failings, we replace rediscretization on coarse grids with improved coarse-grid operators that are computed by applying optimization techniques to approximately minimize error estimates from the convergence theory. Therefore, one of our main findings is that, in order to obtain fast convergence as for parabolic problems, coarse-grid operators should take into account the behavior of the hyperbolic problem by tracking the characteristic curves. Our approach is tested for schemes of various orders using explicit or implicit Runge–Kutta methods combined with upwind-finite-difference spatial discretizations. In all cases, we obtain scalable convergence in just a handful of iterations, with parallel tests also showing significant speed-ups over sequential time-stepping.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Fast and Accurate Predictions of Total Energy for Solid Solution Alloys with Graph Convolutional Neural Networks

We use graph convolutional neural networks (GCNNs) to produce fast and accurate predictions of the total energy of solid solution binary alloys. GCNNs allow us to abstract the lattice structure of a solid material as a graph, whereby atoms are modeled as nodes and metallic bonds as edges. This representation naturally incorporates information about the structure of the material, thereby eliminating the need for computationally expensive data pre-processing which would be required with standard neural network (NN) approaches. We train GCNNs on ab-initio density functional theory (DFT) for copper-gold (CuAu) and iron-platinum (FePt) data that has been generated by running the LSMS-3 code, which implements a locally self-consistent multiple scattering method, on OLCF supercomputers Titan and Summit. GCNN outperforms the ab-initio DFT simulation by orders of magnitude in terms of computational time to produce the estimate of the total energy for a given atomic configuration of the lattice structure. We compare the predictive performance of GCNN models against a standard NN such as dense feedforward multi-layer perceptron (MLP) by using the root-mean-squared errors to quantify the predictive quality of the deep learning (DL) models. We find that the attainable accuracy of GCNNs is at least an order of magnitude better than that of the MLP.

Lupo Pasini, Massimiliano↗

Overview of ASDEX upgrade results in view of ITER and DEMO

Experiments on ASDEX Upgrade (AUG) in 2021 and 2022 have addressed a number of critical issues for ITER and EU DEMO. A major objective of the AUG programme is to shed light on the underlying physics of confinement, stability, and plasma exhaust in order to allow reliable extrapolation of results obtained on present day machines to these reactor-grade devices. Concerning pedestal physics, the mitigation of edge localised modes (ELMs) using resonant magnetic perturbations (RMPs) was found to be consistent with a reduction of the linear peeling-ballooning stability threshold due to the helical deformation of the plasma. Conversely, ELM suppression by RMPs is ascribed to an increased pedestal transport that keeps the plasma away from this boundary. Candidates for this increased transport are locally enhanced turbulence and a locked magnetic island in the pedestal. The enhanced D-alpha (EDA) and quasi-continuous exhaust (QCE) regimes have been established as promising ELM-free scenarios. Here, the pressure gradient at the foot of the H-mode pedestal is reduced by a quasi-coherent mode, consistent with violation of the high-n ballooning mode stability limit there. This is suggestive that the EDA and QCE regimes have a common underlying physics origin. In the area of transport physics, full radius models for both L- and H-modes have been developed. These models predict energy confinement in AUG better than the commonly used global scaling laws, representing a large step towards the goal of predictive capability. A new momentum transport analysis framework has been developed that provides access to the intrinsic torque in the plasma core. In the field of exhaust, the X-Point Radiator (XPR), a cold and dense plasma region on closed flux surfaces close to the X-point, was described by an analytical model that provides an understanding of its formation as well as its stability, i.e., the conditions under which it transitions into a deleterious MARFE with the potential to result in a disruptive termination. With the XPR close to the divertor target, a new detached divertor concept, the compact radiative divertor, was developed. Here, the exhaust power is radiated before reaching the target, allowing close proximity of the X-point to the target. No limitations by the shallow field line angle due to the large flux expansion were observed, and sufficient compression of neutral density was demonstrated. With respect to the pumping of non-recycling impurities, the divertor enrichment was found to mainly depend on the ionisation energy of the impurity under consideration. In the area of MHD physics, analysis of the hot plasma core motion in sawtooth crashes showed good agreement with nonlinear 2-fluid simulations. This indicates that the fast reconnection observed in these events is adequately described including the pressure gradient and the electron inertia in the parallel Ohm’s law. Concerning disruption physics, a shattered pellet injection system was installed in collaboration with the ITER International Organisation. Thanks to the ability to vary the shard size distribution independently of the injection velocity, as well as its impurity admixture, it was possible to tailor the current quench rate, which is an important requirement for future large devices such as ITER. Progress was also made modelling the force reduction of VDEs induced by massive gas injection on AUG. The H-mode density limit was characterised in terms of safe operational space with a newly developed active feedback control method that allowed the stability boundary to be probed several times within a single discharge without inducing a disruptive termination. Regarding integrated operation scenarios, the role of density peaking in the confinement of the ITER baseline scenario (high plasma current) was clarified. The usual energy confinement scaling ITER98(p,y) does not capture this effect, but the more recent H20 scaling does, highlighting again the importance of developing adequate physics based models. Advanced tokamak scenarios, aiming at large non-inductive current fraction due to non-standard profiles of the safety factor in combination with high normalised plasma pressure were studied with a focus on their access conditions. A method to guide the approach of the targeted safety factor profiles was developed, and the conditions for achieving good confinement were clarified. Based on this, two types of advanced scenarios (‘hybrid’ and ‘elevated’

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Dynamic Control of Sodium Cold Trap Purification Temperature Using LSTM System Identification

This study investigates the dynamic regulation of the sodium cold trap purification temperature at Argonne National Laboratory’s liquid sodium test facility, employing long short-term memory (LSTM) system identification techniques. The investigation introduces an innovative hybrid approach by integrating model predictive control (MPC) based on first principles dynamic models with a multi-step time–frequency LSTM model in predicting the temperature profiles of a sodium cold trap purification system. The long short-term memory–model predictive controller (LSTM-MPC) model employs a sliding window scheme to gather training samples for multi-step prediction, leveraging historical data to construct predictive models that capture the non-linearities of the complex system dynamics without explicitly modeling the underlying physical processes. The performance of the LSTM-MPC and MPC were evaluated through simulation experiments, where both models were assessed on their capacity to maintain the cold trap temperature within predefined set-points while minimizing deviations and overshoots. Results obtained show how the data-driven LSTM-MPC model demonstrates stability and adaptability. In contrast, the traditional MPC model exhibits irregularities, particularly evident as overshoots around set-point limits, which can potentially compromise its effectiveness over long prediction time intervals. The findings obtained offer valuable insights into integrating data-driven techniques for enhancing real-time monitoring systems.

LSTM-MPC↗

Shedding light on the 239Pu fission source term with new high-precision experiments and advanced fission modeling

In the last decade, there has been a renaissance of fission research resulting in new high-precision experiments and advanced fission modeling. For instance, the Chi-Nu and CEA teams supplied, for the first time, the 239 Pu prompt fission neutron spectrum (PFNS) for broad ranges of incident and outgoing neutron energies. The CEA team also measured 239 Pu average prompt neutron multiplicities, ν ̄ p , with lower statistical uncertainties and a technique significantly different than the one used in the past. The NIFFTE collaboration provided 239 Pu( n ,f)/ 235 U( n ,f) cross section shape ratios with uncertainties below 1% utilizing a novel detector type. Advanced fission event generators were developed, among them CGMF, FIFRELIN, FREYA, and GEF, which calculate post-scission fission observables in a correlated manner. These new experimental data and more consistent fission models change the evaluated PFNS, ν ̄ p , and ( n ,f) cross sections, some only modestly, compared to ENDF/B-VIII.0. In turn, the individual new nuclear data distinctly change simulated effective neutron multiplication factors of fast critical assemblies, but their combined impact is small, while affecting the prediction of LLNL pulsed sphere neutron leakage spectra and reaction rates only within experimental uncertainties. Also, the parameters obtained from fitting to ν ̄ p reproduce various post-scission fission observables within the uncertainties of experimental data. This indicates that new differential experiments and consistent fission modeling reduce compensating errors present in ENDF/B-VIII.0.

fission cross section↗

Simulating Reflected Light Exoplanet Spectra of the Promising Direct Imaging Target, υ Andromedae d, with a New, Fast Sampling Method Using the Planetary Spectrum Generator

Simulations of exoplanet albedo profiles are key to planning and interpreting future direct imaging observations. In this paper we demonstrate the use of the Planetary Spectrum Generator (PSG) to produce simulations of reflected light exoplanet spectra. We use PSG to examine multiple issues relevant to all models of directly imaged exoplanet spectra and to produce sample spectra of the bright, nearby exoplanet υ Andromedae d (υ And d), a potential direct imaging target for next-generation facilities. We introduce a new, fast, and accurate subsampling technique that enables calculations of disk-integrated spectra one order of magnitude faster than Chebyshev–Gauss sampling for moderate- to high-resolution sampling. Using this method and a first-principles-derived atmosphere for υ And d, we simulate phase-dependent spectra for a variety of different potential atmospheric configurations. The simulated spectra for υ And d include versions with different haze and cloud properties. Based on our combined analysis of this planet’s orbital parameters, phase- and illumination-appropriate model spectra, and realistic instrument noise parameters, we find that υ And d is a potentially favorable direct imaging and spectroscopy target for the Coronagraph Instrument (CGI) on the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope. When a noise model corresponding to the Roman CGI SPC spectroscopy mode is included, PSG predicts the time required to reach a signal-to-noise ratio of 10 of the simulated spectra in both the central wavelength bin of the Roman CGI SPC spectroscopy mode (R = 50 spectrum) and of the Band 1 HLC imaging mode is approximately 400 and less than 40 hr, respectively. We also discuss potential pathways to extricating information about the planet and its atmosphere with future observations and find that Roman observations may be able to bound the interior temperature of the planet.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

Deep Learning Based Approach to Integrate MyShake's Trigger Data with ShakeAlert for Faster and Robust EEW Alerts

Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) systems depend on the dense seismic network to make fast and accurate earthquake detections to issue useful early alerts. The recent development and implementation of the ShakeAlert system is relying on the west coast seismic network to detect and estimate the earthquake parameters in real-time. While working on making improvements on the current system, one potential approach is to include more seismic recordings from various sources, such as the low-cost smartphone seismic network, such as the MyShake network, or the Google Android smartphones, since these smartphone seismic networks have much more portable stations (phones) to potentially provide useful data to the system. This report summarizes the initial exploration of using a deep learning approach to combine the data from both traditional seismic stations and the smartphone data in California. Due to the heterogeneity nature of the data, we aggregate data from the phones (using simulation data), as well as that from traditional seismic stations to grid cells. By generating real-time triggering ratio grid cell maps, the designed deep learning algorithm can process the data from multiple sources and detect the earthquake faster than only using that from a traditional seismic network.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Mountain waves can impact wind power generation

Abstract. Mountains can modify the weather downstream of the terrain. In particular, when stably stratified air ascends a mountain barrier, buoyancy perturbations develop. These perturbations can trigger mountain waves downstream of the mountains that can reach deep into the atmospheric boundary layer where wind turbines operate. Several such cases of mountain waves occurred during the Second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2) in the Columbia River basin in the lee of the Cascade Range bounding the states of Washington and Oregon in the Pacific Northwest of the United States. Signals from the mountain waves appear in boundary layer sodar and lidar observations as well as in nacelle wind speeds and power observations from wind plants. Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulations also produce mountain waves and are compared to satellite, lidar, and sodar observations. Simulated mountain wave wavelengths and wave propagation speeds (group velocities) are analyzed using the fast Fourier transform. We found that not all mountain waves exhibit the same speed and conclude that the speed of propagation, magnitudes of wind speeds, or wavelengths are important parameters for forecasters to recognize the risk for mountain waves and associated large drops or surges in power. When analyzing wind farm power output and nacelle wind speeds, we found that even small oscillations in wind speed caused by mountain waves can induce oscillations between full-rated power of a wind farm and half of the power output, depending on the position of the mountain wave's crests and troughs. For the wind plant analyzed in this paper, mountain-wave-induced fluctuations translate to approximately 11 % of the total wind farm output being influenced by mountain waves. Oscillations in measured wind speeds agree well with WRF simulations in timing and magnitude. We conclude that mountain waves can impact wind turbine and wind farm power output and, therefore, should be considered in complex terrain when designing, building, and forecasting for wind farms.

17 WIND ENERGY↗