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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 649 records · Page 36
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Dark Energy Survey Year 3 results: marginalization over redshift distribution uncertainties using ranking of discrete realizations

ABSTRACT Cosmological information from weak lensing surveys is maximized by sorting source galaxies into tomographic redshift subsamples. Any uncertainties on these redshift distributions must be correctly propagated into the cosmological results. We present hyperrank, a new method for marginalizing over redshift distribution uncertainties, using discrete samples from the space of all possible redshift distributions, improving over simple parametrized models. In hyperrank, the set of proposed redshift distributions is ranked according to a small (between one and four) number of summary values, which are then sampled, along with other nuisance parameters and cosmological parameters in the Monte Carlo chain used for inference. This approach can be regarded as a general method for marginalizing over discrete realizations of data vector variation with nuisance parameters, which can consequently be sampled separately from the main parameters of interest, allowing for increased computational efficiency. We focus on the case of weak lensing cosmic shear analyses and demonstrate our method using simulations made for the Dark Energy Survey (DES). We show that the method can correctly and efficiently marginalize over a wide range of models for the redshift distribution uncertainty. Finally, we compare hyperrank to the common mean-shifting method of marginalizing over redshift uncertainty, validating that this simpler model is sufficient for use in the DES Year 3 cosmology results presented in companion papers.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Evaluation of a Class of Simple and Effective Uncertainty Methods for Sparse Samples of Random Variables and Functions

When very few samples of a random quantity are available from a source distribution of unknown shape, it is usually not possible to accurately infer the exact distribution from which the data samples come. Under-estimation of important quantities such as response variance and failure probabilities can result. For many engineering purposes, including design and risk analysis, we attempt to avoid under-estimation with a strategy to conservatively estimate (bound) these types of quantities -- without being overly conservative -- when only a few samples of a random quantity are available from model predictions or replicate experiments. This report examines a class of related sparse-data uncertainty representation and inference approaches that are relatively simple, inexpensive, and effective. Tradeoffs between the methods' conservatism, reliability, and risk versus number of data samples (cost) are quantified with multi-attribute metrics use d to assess method performance for conservative estimation of two representative quantities: central 95% of response; and 10 -4 probability of exceeding a response threshold in a tail of the distribution. Each method's performance is characterized with 10,000 random trials on a large number of diverse and challenging distributions. The best method and number of samples to use in a given circumstance depends on the uncertainty quantity to be estimated, the PDF character, and the desired reliability of bounding the true value. On the basis of this large data base and study, a strategy is proposed for selecting the method and number of samples for attaining reasonable credibility levels in bounding these types of quantities when sparse samples of random variables or functions are available from experiments or simulations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS1972

A new method for the determination of the mixing ratio hydrogen to helium in the giant planets.

By using a numerical iterative method, it is demonstrated that the mixing ratio H2/He on the giant planets can be inferred from spectral measurements of the intensity emitted by these planets in the far infrared range. The method is successfully applied to synthetic spectra of Saturn computed from atmospheric thermal models. The effect of random and systematic measurement errors on the determination of the mixing ratio is also studied.

Gautier, D.↗
DOE OSTI2024

A decade of curtailment studies demonstrates a consistent and effective strategy to reduce bat fatalities at wind turbines in North America

Abstract There is a rapid, global push for wind energy installation. However, large numbers of bats are killed by turbines each year, raising concerns about the impacts of wind energy expansion on bat populations. Preventing turbine blades from spinning at low wind speeds, referred to as curtailment, is a method to reduce bat fatalities, but drawing consistent inference across studies has been challenging. We compiled publicly available studies that evaluated curtailment at six wind energy facilities in North America across 10 years. We used meta‐regression of 29 implemented treatments to determine fatality reduction efficacy as well as sources of variation influencing efficacy. We also estimated species‐specific fatality reduction for three species that comprise most fatalities in North America: hoary bat ( Lasiurus cinereus ), eastern red bat ( Lasiurus borealis ) and silver‐haired bat ( Lasionycteris noctivagans ). We found that curtailment reduced total bat fatalities by 33% with every 1.0 ms −1 increase in curtailment wind speed. Estimates of the efficacy for the three target species were similar (hoary bats: 28% per ms −1 , 95% CI: 0.4%–48%, eastern red bats: 32% per ms −1 , 95% CI: 13%–47% and silver‐haired bats: 32% per ms −1 , 95% CI: 3%–53%). Across multiple facilities and years, a 5.0 ms −1 cut‐in speed was estimated to reduce total bat fatalities by an average of 62% (95% CI: 54%–69%). Mortality reductions at individual facilities in any given year were estimated to fall between 33%–79% (95% prediction interval). Inter‐annual differences rather than inter‐site or turbine characteristics accounted for most of the variation in efficacy rates. Species‐specific average mortality reduction at 5.0 ms −1 curtailment wind speed was 48% (95% CI: 24%–64%) for hoary bats, 61% (95% CI: 42%–74%) for eastern red bats and 52% (95% CI: 30%–66%) for silver‐haired bats. Practical implication . curtailment reduced bat mortality at wind turbines in this North American study. Efficacy increased proportionally as curtailment speed is raised, and patterns and rates of efficacy were similar across species. This indicates that curtailment is an effective strategy to reduce bat fatalities at wind energy facilities, but exploration of further refinements could both minimize bat mortality and maximize energy production.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Enabling probabilistic learning on manifolds through double diffusion maps

Here, we present a generative learning framework for probabilistic sampling that extends Probabilistic Learning on Manifolds (PLoM), which is designed to generate statistically consistent realizations of a random vector in a finite-dimensional Euclidean space, informed by a (representative) set of observations. In its original form, PLoM constructs a reduced-order probabilistic model by combining three main components: (a) kernel density estimation to approximate the underlying probability measure, (b) Diffusion Maps to characterize the manifold of the data, and (c) a reduced-order Itô Stochastic Differential Equation (ISDE) to sample from the learned distribution. However, its sampling dynamics are posed in the ambient space and the retained number of reduced coordinates is chosen by projection-reconstruction error. In practice, this often (i) requires more coordinates than the data’s intrinsic dimension to achieve stable sampling and (ii) lacks a smooth, basis-independent lifting back to the data domain; moreover, standard Diffusion Maps emphasize harmonic eigenfunctions and can miss non-harmonic latent structure. We address these limitations by decoupling geometry learning from sampling: a first Diffusion Maps pass identifies non-harmonic coordinates on which we formulate a full-order ISDE directly in the latent space, while Double Diffusion Maps captures multiscale geometric features and Geometric Harmonics (GH) learns a smooth lifting map to the ambient variables that is independent of the particular diffusion basis. This hybrid design preserves the system’s dynamical richness with a compact geometric representation and enables principled out-of-sample inference. The effectiveness and robustness of the proposed method are illustrated through two numerical studies: one based on data generated from two-dimensional Hermite polynomial functions and another based on high-fidelity simulations of a detonation wave in a reactive flow.

Double diffusion maps↗
DOE OSTI2017

Inferring morphology and strength of magnetic fields from proton radiographs

Proton radiography is an important diagnostic method for laser plasma experiments and is particularly important in the analysis of magnetized plasmas. The theory of radiographic image analysis has heretofore only permitted somewhat limited analysis of the radiographs of such plasmas. We furnish here a theory that remedies this deficiency. We show that to linear order in magnetic field gradients, proton radiographs are projection images of the MHD current along the proton trajectories. We demonstrate that in the linear regime (i.e., the small image contrast regime), the full structure of the projected perpendicular magnetic field can be reconstructed by solving a steady-state inhomogeneous 2-dimensional diffusion equation sourced by the radiograph fluence contrast data. Here, we explore the validity of the scheme with increasing image contrast, as well as limitations of the inversion method due to the Poisson noise, discretization errors, radiograph edge effects, and obstruction by laser target structures. We also provide a separate analysis that is suited to the inference of isotropic-homogeneous magnetic turbulence spectra. Finally, we discuss extension of these results to the nonlinear regime (i.e., the order unity image contrast regime).

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Design and simulation of a muon detector to characterize geological overburden

This study presents the design, construction, and simulation of a mobile muon detector tailored for geological overburden characterization. The detector employs plastic scintillator paddles with silicon photomultipliers (SiPMs) and a QuarkNet data acquisition system, offering a portable solution suitable for remote field deployment. The simulator’s modular aluminum frame allows for adjustable geometry and directional sensitivity, while its battery system supports over a week of autonomous operation. Preliminary experimental tests confirmed that its muon flux measurements were consistent with theoretical expectations. A comprehensive simulation framework using Geant4 and CORSIKA was developed to model detector response and overburden effects. Analytical and Monte Carlo methods were used to assess quadrant resolution and infer muon directionality. This work lays the foundation for future overburden mapping and supports the development of reconstruction algorithms for geological applications.

72 - PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2021

A composite likelihood approach for inference under photometric redshift uncertainty

ABSTRACT Obtaining accurately calibrated redshift distributions of photometric samples is one of the great challenges in photometric surveys like LSST, Euclid, HSC, KiDS, and DES. We present an inference methodology that combines the redshift information from the galaxy photometry with constraints from two-point functions, utilizing cross-correlations with spatially overlapping spectroscopic samples, and illustrate the approach on CosmoDC2 simulations. Our likelihood framework is designed to integrate directly into a typical large-scale structure and weak lensing analysis based on two-point functions. We discuss efficient and accurate inference techniques that allow us to scale the method to the large samples of galaxies to be expected in LSST. We consider statistical challenges like the parametrization of redshift systematics, discuss and evaluate techniques to regularize the sample redshift distributions, and investigate techniques that can help to detect and calibrate sources of systematic error using posterior predictive checks. We evaluate and forecast photometric redshift performance using data from the CosmoDC2 simulations, within which we mimic a DESI-like spectroscopic calibration sample for cross-correlations. Using a combination of spatial cross-correlations and photometry, we show that we can provide calibration of the mean of the sample redshift distribution to an accuracy of at least 0.002(1 + z), consistent with the LSST-Y1 science requirements for weak lensing and large-scale structure probes.

(cosmology:) large-scale structure of Universe↗
DOE OSTI2016

Experimental Analysis of File Transfer Rates over Wide-Area Dedicated Connections

File transfers over dedicated connections, supported by large parallel file systems, have become increasingly important in high-performance computing and big data workflows. It remains a challenge to achieve peak rates for such transfers due to the complexities of file I/O, host, and network transport subsystems, and equally importantly, their interactions. We present extensive measurements of disk-to-disk file transfers using Lustre and XFS file systems mounted on multi-core servers over a suite of 10 Gbps emulated connections with 0-366 ms round trip times. Our results indicate that large buffer sizes and many parallel flows do not always guarantee high transfer rates. Furthermore, large variations in the measured rates necessitate repeated measurements to ensure confidence in inferences based on them. We propose a new method to efficiently identify the optimal joint file I/O and network transport parameters using a small number of measurements. We show that for XFS and Lustre with direct I/O, this method identifies configurations achieving 97% of the peak transfer rate while probing only 12% of the parameter space.

Rao, Nageswara S.↗
DOE OSTI2025

I/O in Machine Learning Applications on HPC Systems: A 360-degree Survey

Growing interest in Artificial Intelligence (AI) has resulted in a surge in demand for faster methods of Machine Learning (ML) model training and inference. This demand for speed has prompted the use of high performance computing (HPC) systems that excel in managing distributed workloads. Because data is the main fuel for AI applications, the performance of the storage and I/O subsystem of HPC systems is critical. In the past, HPC applications accessed large portions of data written by simulations or experiments or ingested data for visualizations or analysis tasks. ML workloads perform small reads spread across a large number of random files. This shift of I/O access patterns poses several challenges to modern parallel storage systems. In this paper, we survey I/O in ML applications on HPC systems, and target literature within a 6-year time window from 2019 to 2024. We define the scope of the survey, provide an overview of the common phases of ML, review available profilers and benchmarks, examine the I/O patterns encountered during offline data preparation, training, and inference, and explore I/O optimizations utilized in modern ML frameworks and proposed in recent literature. Lastly, we seek to expose research gaps that could spawn further R&D.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

A framework for inferring and analyzing pharmacotherapy treatment patterns

Background: To discover pharmacotherapy prescription patterns and their statistical associations with outcomes through a clinical pathway inference framework applied to real-world data. Methods: We apply machine learning steps in our framework using a 2006 to 2020 cohort of veterans with major depressive disorder (MDD). Outpatient antidepressant pharmacy fills, dispensed inpatient antidepressant medications, emergency department visits, self-harm, and all-cause mortality data were extracted from the Department of Veterans Affairs Corporate Data Warehouse. Results: Our MDD cohort consisted of 252,179 individuals. During the study period there were 98,417 emergency department visits, 1,016 cases of self-harm, and 1,507 deaths from all causes. The top ten prescription patterns accounted for 69.3% of the data for individuals starting antidepressants at the fluoxetine equivalent of 20-39 mg. Additionally, we found associations between outcomes and dosage change. Conclusions: For 252,179 Veterans who served in Iraq and Afghanistan with subsequent MDD noted in their electronic medical records, we documented and described the major pharmacotherapy prescription patterns implemented by Veterans Health Administration providers. Ten patterns accounted for almost 70% of the data. Associations between antidepressant usage and outcomes in observational data may be confounded. The low numbers of adverse events, especially those associated with all-cause mortality, make our calculations imprecise. Furthermore, our outcomes are also indications for both disease and treatment. Despite these limitations, we demonstrate the usefulness of our framework in providing operational insight into clinical practice, and our results underscore the need for increased monitoring during critical points of treatment.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

K-ε Turbulence Model Parameter Estimates Using an Approximate Self-similar Jet-in-Crossflow Solution

The k-ε turbulence model has been described as perhaps “the most widely used complete turbulence model.” This family of heuristic Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) turbulence closures is supported by a suite of model parameters that have been estimated by demanding the satisfaction of well-established canonical flows such as homogeneous shear flow, log-law behavior, etc. While this procedure does yield a set of so-called nominal parameters, it is abundantly clear that they do not provide a universally satisfactory turbulence model that is capable of simulating complex flows. Recent work on the Bayesian calibration of the k-ε model using jet-in-crossflow wind tunnel data has yielded parameter estimates that are far more predictive than nominal parameter values. In this paper, we develop a self-similar asymptotic solution for axisymmetric jet-in-crossflow interactions and derive analytical estimates of the parameters that were inferred using Bayesian calibration. The self-similar method utilizes a near field approach to estimate the turbulence model parameters while retaining the classical far-field scaling to model flow field quantities. Our parameter values are seen to be far more predictive than the nominal values, as checked using RANS simulations and experimental measurements. They are also closer to the Bayesian estimates than the nominal parameters. A traditional simplified jet trajectory model is explicitly related to the turbulence model parameters and is shown to yield good agreement with measurement when utilizing the analytical derived turbulence model coefficients. Finally, the close agreement between the turbulence model coefficients obtained via Bayesian calibration and the analytically estimated coefficients derived in this paper is consistent with the contention that the Bayesian calibration approach is firmly rooted in the underlying physical description.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS1972

Viscous stability theory for thermally stratified flow - Discontinuous jets and shear layers.

The method used by Drazin to investigate the stability of unbounded, viscous, homogeneous, parallel shear flow to small wavenumber disturbances is extended to study the effect of thermal stratification on the stability of unbounded jets and shear layers. By this method the stability characteristics of continuous profiles are inferred from the stability characteristics of discontinuous profiles. The characteristic value problem for discontinuous jet and shear layers is posed by the requirement that the solutions of the governing differential equation satisfy the matching conditions and boundedness conditions for layers that extend to infinity. The analysis leads to a characteristic determinant which is required to vanish for the characteristic values of the parameters: the Reynolds number, the wavenumber, and the wave speed. The stabilizing effect of the thermal stratification as parameterized by the Richardson number was found to be most stabilizing for small wavenumber (large-scale) disturbances.

Gage, K. S.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Dynamics of the solar photosphere

Current knowledge of photospheric velocity fields is summarized. A model of the solar atmosphere is described along with the methods used in solar velocity field observations. The inferences drawn from integrated Sun observations, the velocity fields of the quiet Sun, sunspots, and other magnetic structures are discussed.

Beckers, J. M.↗
NASA NTRS1982

Comparison of LANDSAT-2 and field spectrometer reflectance signatures of south Texas rangeland plant communities

The accuracy was assessed for an atmospheric correction method that depends on clear water bodies to infer solar and atmospheric parameters for radiative transfer equations by measuring the reflectance signature of four prominent south Texas rangeland plants with the LANDSAT satellite multispectral scanner (MSS) and a ground based spectroradiometer. The rangeland plant reflectances produced by the two sensors were correlated with no significant deviation of the slope from unity or of the intercept from zero. These results indicated that the atmospheric correction produced LANDSAT MSS estimates of rangeland plant reflectances that are as accurate as the ground based spectroradiometer.

Richardson, A. J.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Stoichiometric disturbances in compound semiconductors due to ion implantation

A method is developed to calculate the depth distribution of the local stoichiometric disturbance (SD) resulting from ion implantation in binary-compound substrates. The calculation includes first-order recoils considering projected range straggle of projectiles and recoils and lateral straggle of recoils. The method uses tabulated final-range statistics to infer the projectile range distributions at intermediate energies. This approach greatly simplifies the calculation with little compromise on accuracy as compared to existing procedures. As an illustration, the SD profile is calculated for implantation of boron, silicon, and aluminum in silicon carbide. The results for the latter case suggest that the SD may be responsible for otherwise unexplained distortions in the annealed aluminum profile. A comparison with calculations by other investigators using the Boltzmann transport equation shows good agreement.

Avila, R. E.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Airborne Microwave Radiometry on a Semi-Arid Area During HAPEX-Sahel

Airborne microwave radiometric measurements in the framework of the HAPEX-Sahel Experiment were performed by the Push Broom Microwave Radiometer (PBMR) and the PORTOS radiometer. The flights of both radiometers produced an original set of data covering the 1.4-90 GHz range of frequency. The East and West Central Super Sites were the areas most intensively observed by the microwave radiometers. Over those sites, several brightness temperature (TB) maps are available at seven dates distributed over a 1 month period in the middle of the rainy season. A comparison of the two radiometers demonstrates their radiometric quality and the precision of the localization of the microwave observations. At 1.4 GHz, the vegetation had very little effect on the soil microwave emission. Maps of soil moisture were developed using a single linear relationship between TB and the surface soil moisture. There is an important spatial heterogeneity in the soil moisture distribution, which is explained by both the soil moisture hydrodynamic properties and the localization of the precipitation fields. At 5.05 GHz, the vegetation must be accounted for to infer soil moisture from the microwave observations. A method based on a simple radiative transfer model and on microwave data has shown encouraging results.

Chanzy, A↗
NASA NTRS2003

Genomic clocks and evolutionary timescales

For decades, molecular clocks have helped to illuminate the evolutionary timescale of life, but now genomic data pose a challenge for time estimation methods. It is unclear how to integrate data from many genes, each potentially evolving under a different model of substitution and at a different rate. Current methods can be grouped by the way the data are handled (genes considered separately or combined into a 'supergene') and the way gene-specific rate models are applied (global versus local clock). There are advantages and disadvantages to each of these approaches, and the optimal method has not yet emerged. Fortunately, time estimates inferred using many genes or proteins have greater precision and appear to be robust to different approaches.

Evolution, Molecular↗