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At least 649 records · Page 36

Estimating Watershed Subsurface Permeability From Stream Discharge Data using Deep Neural Networks, Frontiers in Earth Science: Dataset

This data package contains watershed modeling inputs and outputs as well as deep neural networks training and testing results used in "Estimating Watershed Subsurface Permeability From Stream Discharge Data using Deep Neural Networks" (Cromwell et al., 2021). We train various deep neural network models with different architectures to predict subsurface permeability from stream discharge hydrograph at the watershed outlet. The training data are obtained from ensemble simulations of hydrographs corresponding to an permeability ensemble using a fully-distributed, integrated surface-subsurface hydrologic model. The trained model is then applied to estimate the permeability of the real watershed using its observed hydrograph at the outlet. Our study demonstrates that the permeabilities of the soil and geologic facies that make significant contributions to the outlet discharge can be more accurately estimated from the discharge data. Their estimations are also more robust with observation errors. Compared to the traditional ensemble smoother method, DNNs show stronger performance in capturing the nonlinear relationship between permeability and stream hydrograph to accurately estimate permeability. Our study sheds new light on the value of the emerging deep learning methods in assisting integrated watershed modeling by improving parameter estimation, which will eventually reduce the uncertainty in predictive watershed models. For detailed information regarding watershed model description and DNNs setup, please refer to Cromwell et al., 2021. The deep_learning.zip file contains the inputs and outputs for the different deep neural networks. The watershed_model.zip file contains the inputs and outputs for watershed simulation using ATS. The figures.zip file contains raw figures and their corresponding scripts. For a more detailed description, please see the README.md file within each compressed file.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Simulation modeling of estuarine ecosystems

A simulation model has been developed of Galveston Bay, Texas ecosystem. Secondary productivity measured by harvestable species (such as shrimp and fish) is evaluated in terms of man-related and controllable factors, such as quantity and quality of inlet fresh-water and pollutants. This simulation model used information from an existing physical parameters model as well as pertinent biological measurements obtained by conventional sampling techniques. Predicted results from the model compared favorably with those from comparable investigations. In addition, this paper will discuss remotely sensed and conventional measurements in the framework of prospective models that may be used to study estuarine processes and ecosystem productivity.

Johnson, R. W.↗

Nitric acid forecast experiments

Results of two three-dimensional forecasts of the time evolution of the distribution of HNO3 in the stratosphere are reported. The first is for the February 1979 stratospheric warming, and the second is for a period in March, 1979 when the relative importance of photochemistry and dynamics is thought to be rapidly changing. The zonal mean results of the model calculations are in general qualitative agreement with the LIMS HNO3 observations. However, the calculated three-dimensional fields show significant differences from the observations. The results provide insight into what must be done to form a successful constituent forecast model and provide information on the modeling technique and the self-consistency of the observed dynamical and constituent fields.

Rood, Richard B.↗

Intelligent interfaces to aircraft systems

An approach for developing intelligent aiding systems for airline flight crews is proposed. This approach proceeds in four cycles: (1) National Traffic Safety Board data and pilot interviews are used to determine the areas in which pilots require aid; (2) a pilot information processing model is designed; (3) an intelligent pilot-aiding model is developed; and (4) systems for implementing aiding functions are defined. This approach is utilized to design a general situation-response pilot-aiding system. The situation-response model and the structure of a general situation-response pilot-aiding system are described. The computer implementation of the situation-response information processing model is examined.

Schudy, Robert↗

Geodata Modeling and Query in Geographic Information Systems

Geographic information systems (GIS) deal with collecting, modeling, man- aging, analyzing, and integrating spatial (locational) and non-spatial (attribute) data required for geographic applications. Examples of spatial data are digital maps, administrative boundaries, road networks, and those of non-spatial data are census counts, land elevations and soil characteristics. GIS shares common areas with a number of other disciplines such as computer- aided design, computer cartography, database management, and remote sensing. None of these disciplines however, can by themselves fully meet the requirements of a GIS application. Examples of such requirements include: the ability to use locational data to produce high quality plots, perform complex operations such as network analysis, enable spatial searching and overlay operations, support spatial analysis and modeling, and provide data management functions such as efficient storage, retrieval, and modification of large datasets; independence, integrity, and security of data; and concurrent access to multiple users. It is on the data management issues that we devote our discussions in this monograph. Traditionally, database management technology have been developed for business applications. Such applications require, among other things, capturing the data requirements of high-level business functions and developing machine- level implementations; supporting multiple views of data and yet providing integration that would minimize redundancy and maintain data integrity and security; providing a high-level language for data definition and manipulation; allowing concurrent access to multiple users; and processing user transactions in an efficient manner. The demands on database management systems have been for speed, reliability, efficiency, cost effectiveness, and user-friendliness. Significant progress have been made in all of these areas over the last two decades to the point that many generalized database platforms are now available for developing data intensive applications that run in real-time. While continuous improvement is still being made at a very fast-paced and competitive rate, new application areas such as computer aided design, image processing, VLSI design, and GIS have been identified by many as the next generation of database applications. These new application areas pose serious challenges to the currently available database technology. At the core of these challenges is the nature of data that is manipulated. In traditional database applications, the database objects do not have any spatial dimension, and as such, can be thought of as point data in a multi-dimensional space. For example, each instance of an entity EMPLOYEE will have a unique value corresponding to every attribute such as employee id, employee name, employee address and so on. Thus, every Employee instance can be thought of as a point in a multi-dimensional space where each dimension is represented by an attribute. Furthermore, all operations on such data are one-dimensional. Thus, users may retrieve all entities satisfying one or more constraints. Examples of such constraints include employees with addresses in a certain area code, or salaries within a certain range. Even though constraints can be specified on multiple attributes (dimensions), the search for such data is essentially orthogonal across these dimensions.

Adam, Nabil↗

Density modification of cryo-EM maps

Density modification uses expectations about features of a map such as a flat solvent and expected distributions of density in the region of the macromolecule to improve individual Fourier terms representing the map. This process transfers information from one part of a map to another and can improve the accuracy of a map. Here, the assumptions behind density modification for maps from electron cryomicroscopy are examined and a procedure is presented that allows the incorporation of model-based information. Density modification works best in cases where unfiltered, unmasked maps with clear boundaries between the macromolecule and solvent are visible, and where there is substantial noise in the map, both in the region of the macromolecule and the solvent. It also is most effective if the characteristics of the map are relatively constant within regions of the macromolecule and the solvent. Model-based information can be used to improve density modification, but model bias can in principle occur. Here, model bias is reduced by using ensemble models that allow an estimation of model uncertainty. A test of model bias is presented that suggests that even if the expected density in a region of a map is specified incorrectly by using an incorrect model, the incorrect expectations do not strongly affect the final map.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

State of Wildfires

Fire is an essential component of ecosystems and acts as key driver of biogeochemical cycling with impacts on vegetation structure and composition, soil conditions, and climate feedbacks. Fire behavior and effects vary based on the types of fuel, fuel dryness, and frequency of ignition. Due to changing climate and land use patterns, fire danger is increasing in many regions globally, and fires are having increasingly devastating impacts on human health, infrastructure, and ecosystem services. Recurrent fires help to determine the distribution of trees and grasses, and overall fuel load, which inform the behavior of future fires. Process-based models can be used to capture multi-scale impacts at the forest stand-level up to the landscape level, and across minutes to centuries, but must capture variation in fire behavior and intensity as a function of the fuel and climate, from high intensity forest crown fires within boreal regions to low intensity rapid grass fires of the tropics. Fire model development demonstrates our ability to capture large scale fire influenced biogeography and vegetation distribution at the earth system scale through vegetation traits and fire feedbacks. At the individual stand scale the importance of interactions and feedbacks between above and below ground process is essential to capturing the vegetation dynamics across boreal forest systems. Improving the mechanics of including plant physiology and specifically live fuel moisture content is the next step to advancing the capability of process based models to inform fire research. Advances in the testing and creation of a mechanistic live fuel moisture model demonstrate the foundation for future live fuel dynamics research that can be informed by field and remote sensing information. Improved remote sensing, technological and modeling capabilities support a more comprehensive and cohesive fire response that will be better equipped to overcome current barriers and anticipate the new reality of fires in a warming world.

wildfires↗

Model-based vision for space applications

This paper describes a method for tracking moving image features by combining spatial and temporal edge information with model based feature information. The algorithm updates the two-dimensional position of object features by correlating predicted model features with current image data. The results of the correlation process are used to compute an updated model. The algorithm makes use of a high temporal sampling rate with respect to spatial changes of the image features and operates in a real-time multiprocessing environment. Preliminary results demonstrate successful tracking for image feature velocities between 1.1 and 4.5 pixels every image frame. This work has applications for docking, assembly, retrieval of floating objects and a host of other space-related tasks.

Chaconas, Karen↗

Soil Moisture Data Assimilation in the NASA Land Information System for Local Modeling Applications and Improved Situational Awareness

As part of the NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) Early Adopter (EA) program, the NASA Shortterm Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center has implemented a data assimilation (DA) routine into the NASA Land Information System (LIS) for soil moisture retrievals from the European Space Agency's Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity (SMOS) satellite. The SMAP EA program promotes application‐driven research to provide a fundamental understanding of how SMAP data products will be used to improve decision‐making at operational agencies. SPoRT has partnered with select NOAA/NWS Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs) that use output from a real‐time regional configuration of LIS, without soil moisture DA, to initialize local numerical weather prediction (NWP) models and enhance situational awareness. Improvements to local NWP with the current LIS have been demonstrated; however, a better representation of the land surface through assimilation of SMOS (and eventually SMAP) retrievals is expected to lead to further model improvement, particularly during warm‐season months. SPoRT will collaborate with select WFOs to assess the impact of soil moisture DA on operational forecast situations. Assimilation of the legacy SMOS instrument data provides an opportunity to develop expertise in preparation for using SMAP data products shortly after the scheduled launch on 5 November 2014. SMOS contains a passive L‐band radiometer that is used to retrieve surface soil moisture at 35‐km resolution with an accuracy of 0.04 cu cm cm (exp -3). SMAP will feature a comparable passive L‐band instrument in conjunction with a 3‐km resolution active radar component of slightly degraded accuracy. A combined radar‐radiometer product will offer unprecedented global coverage of soil moisture at high spatial resolution (9 km) for hydrometeorological applications, balancing the resolution and accuracy of the active and passive instruments, respectively. The LIS software framework manages land surface model (LSM) simulations and includes an Ensemble Kalman Filter for conducting land surface DA. SPoRT has added a module to read, quality‐control and bias‐correct swaths of Level II SMOS soil moisture retrievals prior to assimilation within LIS. The impact of SMOS DA is being tested using the Noah LSM. Experiments are being conducted to examine the impacts of SMOS soil moisture DA on the resulting LISNoah fields and subsequent NWP simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model initialized with LIS‐Noah output. LIS‐Noah soil moisture will be validated against in situ observations from Texas A&M's North American Soil Moisture Database to reveal the impact and possible improvement in soil moisture trends through DA. WRF model NWP case studies will test the impacts of DA on the simulated near‐surface and boundary‐layer environments, and precipitation during both quiescent and disturbed weather scenarios. Emphasis will be placed on cases with large analysis increments, especially due to contributions from regional irrigation patterns that are not represented by precipitation input in the baseline LIS‐Noah run. This poster presentation will describe the soil moisture DA methodology and highlight LIS‐Noah and WRF simulation results with and without assimilation.

Case, Jonathan L.↗

Urban Flood Modeling: Uncertainty Quantification and Physics‐Informed Gaussian Processes Regression Forecasting

Abstract Estimating uncertainty in flood model predictions is important for many applications, including risk assessment and flood forecasting. We focus on uncertainty in physics‐based urban flooding models. We consider the effects of the model's complexity and uncertainty in key input parameters. The effect of rainfall intensity on the uncertainty in water depth predictions is also studied. As a test study, we choose the Interconnected Channel and Pond Routing (ICPR) model of a part of the city of Minneapolis. The uncertainty in the ICPR model's predictions of the floodwater depth is quantified in terms of the ensemble variance using the multilevel Monte Carlo (MC) simulation method. Our results show that uncertainties in the studied domain are highly localized. Model simplifications, such as disregarding the groundwater flow, lead to overly confident predictions, that is, predictions that are both less accurate and uncertain than those of the more complex model. We find that for the same number of uncertain parameters, increasing the model resolution reduces uncertainty in the model predictions (and increases the MC method's computational cost). We employ the multilevel MC method to reduce the cost of estimating uncertainty in a high‐resolution ICPR model. Finally, we use the ensemble estimates of the mean and covariance of the flood depth for real‐time flood depth forecasting using the physics‐informed Gaussian process regression method. We show that even with few measurements, the proposed framework results in a more accurate forecast than that provided by the mean prediction of the ICPR model.

Kohanpur, Amir H.↗

A mesoscale 3D model of irradiated concrete informed via a 2.5 U-Net semantic segmentation

The concrete biological shield in light-water reactors is exposed to neutron and gamma irradiation, which deteriorates the concrete’s mechanical properties in the long term. To assess the irradiation-induced damage, predictive mechanical models are developed and used in parallel with the characterization of irradiated concrete samples. Realistic 3D simulation domains can drastically improve a model’s prediction. In this work, we utilized x-ray computed tomography (XCT) data of a concrete specimen to reconstruct its 3D microstructure. The XCT data shows low contrast between the concrete’s aggregates and cement paste, resulting in poor image segmentation when using traditional unsupervised techniques. To address this issue, we developed and trained a 2.5D U-Net model on only 24 pre-labeled XCT layers to segment 651 layers of the XCT data. The overall F1-score of the model is approximately 96%. Then, we created a 3D finite element (FE) mesh based on the stack of segmented images. The FE model contains radiation-induced expansion, damage, and creep. The constitutive equations are adapted to each phase (aggregates and cement paste). Here, we simulated the effects of neutron irradiation in the concrete specimen as well as the specimen’s mechanical response to uniaxial compression. Finally, model validation was performed using experimental data on similar concrete specimens in the literature.

2.5D U-Net↗

SafeAeroBERT: Towards a Safety-Informed Aerospace-Specific Language Model

As aviation systems continue to operate with high traffic, large amounts of documents containing safety-relevant data continue to be generated via reporting systems such as the Aviation Safety Reporting System (ASRS). Advanced natural language processing techniques, specifically pre-trained language models, have shown great success in domain-specific applications; however, the text in aviation safety reports is inundated with jargon and thus not fully utilized by general pre-trained models. In this research, we work towards developing a safety-informed aerospace-specific language model by pre-training a Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformer (BERT) model on reports from the Aviation Safety Reporting System and the National Transportation Safety Board. The resulting model, called SafeAeroBERT, is fine-tuned for the specific task of document classification, and can be further tuned for named-entity recognition, relation detection, information retrieval, and summarization. Results from the classification task are compared between SafeAeroBERT, the base BERT, and SciBERT models and show SafeAeroBERT outperforms the general BERT and SciBERT on classifying reports about weather and procedure. SafeAeroBERT can be used on custom tasks, not limited to document classification, and is intended to aid an intelligent knowledge manager for safety report repositories.

Aviation↗

SafeAeroBERT: Towards a Safety-Informed Aerospace-Specific Language Model

As aviation systems continue to operate with high traffic, large amounts of documents containing safety-relevant data continue to be generated via reporting systems such as the ASRS. Advanced natural language processing techniques, specifically pre-trained language models, have shown great success in domain-specific applications; however, the text in aviation safety reports is inundated with jargon and thus not fully utilized by general pre-trained models. In this research, we work towards developing a safety-informed aerospace-specific language model by pre-training a Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformer (BERT) model on reports from the Aviation Safety Reporting System and the National Transportation Safety Board. The resulting model, called SafeAeroBERT, is fine-tuned for the specific task of document classification, and can be further tuned for named-entity recognition, relation detection, information retrieval, and summarization. Results from the classification task are compared between SafeAeroBERT, the base BERT, and SciBERT models and show SafeAeroBERT outperforms the general BERT and SciBERT on classifying reports about human factors, aircraft, and procedure. SafeAeroBERT can be used on custom tasks, not limited to document classification, and is intended to aid an intelligent knowledge manager for safety report repositories.

Aviation↗

Human-telerobot interactions - Information, control, and mental models

A part of the NASA's Space Station will be a teleoperated robot (telerobot) with arms for grasping and manipulation, feet for holding onto objects, and television cameras for visual feedback. The objective of the work described in this paper is to develop the requirements and specifications for the user-telerobot interface and to determine through research and testing that the interface results in efficient system operation. The focus of the development of the user-telerobot interface is on the information required by the user, the user inputs, and the design of the control workstation. Closely related to both the information required by the user and the user's control of the telerobot is the user's mental model of the relationship between the control inputs and the telerobot's actions.

Smith, Randy L.↗

Improving five-year survival prediction via multitask learning across HPV-related cancers

Oncology is a highly siloed field of research in which sub-disciplinary specialization has limited the amount of information shared between researchers of distinct cancer types. This can be attributed to legitimate differences in the physiology and carcinogenesis of cancers affecting distinct anatomical sites. However, underlying processes that are shared across seemingly disparate cancers probably affect prognosis. The objective of the current study is to investigate whether multitask learning improves 5-year survival cancer patient survival prediction by leveraging information across anatomically distinct HPV related cancers. Furthermore, data were obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program database. The study cohort consisted of 29,768 primary cancer cases diagnosed in the United States between 2004 and 2015. Ten different cancer diagnoses were selected, all with a known association with HPV risk. In the analysis, the cancer diagnoses were categorized into three distinct topography groups of varying specificity. The most specific topography grouping consisted of 10 original cancer diagnoses differentiated by the first two digits of the ICD-O-3 topography code. The second topography grouping consisted of cancer diagnoses categorized into six distinct organ groups. Finally, the third topography grouping consisted of just two groups, head-neck cancers and ano-genital cancers. The tasks were to predict 5-year survival for patients within the different topography groups using 14 predictive features which were selected among descriptive variables available in the SEER database. The information from the predictive features was shared between tasks in three different ways, resulting in three distinct predictive models: 1) Information was not shared between patients assigned to different tasks (single task learning); 2) Information was shared between all patients, regardless of task (pooled model); 3) Only relevant information was shared between patients grouped to different tasks (multitask learning). Prediction performance was evaluated with Brier scores. All three models were evaluated against one another on each of the three distinct topography-defined tasks. The results showed that multitask classifiers achieved relative improvement for the majority of the scenarios studied compared to single task learning and pooled baseline methods. In this study, we have demonstrated that sharing information among anatomically distinct cancer types can lead to improved predictive survival models.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Metrics as tools for bridging climate science and applications

In climate science and applications, the term “metric” is used to describe the distillation of complex, multifaceted evaluations to summarize the overall quality of a model simulation, or other data product, and/or as a means to quantify some response to climate change. Metrics provide insights into the fidelity of processes and outcomes from climate models and can assist with both differentiating models' representation of variables or processes and informing whether models are “fit for purpose.” Metrics can also provide a valuable reference point for co-production of knowledge between climate scientists and climate impact practitioners. Although continued metric developments enable model developers to better understand the impacts of decisions made in the model design process, metrics also have implications for the characterization of uncertainty and facilitating analyses of underlying physical processes. As a result, comprehensive evaluation with multiple metrics enhances usability of climate information by both scientific and stakeholder communities. Here, this paper presents examples of insights gained from the development and appropriate use of metrics, and provides examples of how metrics can be used to engage with stakeholders and inform decision-making.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Use of physics to improve solar forecast: Part III, impacts of different cloud types

Cloud-type impacts present a great challenge to solar forecasting due to diverse and complex cloud-radiation interactions. This third part of our paper sequence seeks to address this challenge by quantifying the forecast accuracies under eight cloud types: cumulus (Cu), stratified clouds (St), altocumulus (Ac), altostratus (As), cirrostratus/anvil (Cr), cirrus (Ci), congestus (Co), deep convective clouds (Dc) across four physics-informed persistence models reported in Part I. To generalize the cloud impacts, the eight cloud types are further grouped into three cloud categories based on their common features: weak convective clouds, stratiform clouds, and strong convective clouds. Here, the decade-long (2001 ~ 2014) collocated measurements of irradiances and cloud types at the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program South Great Plain (SGP) Central Facility site are used for model evaluation. Results reveal a clear performance hierarchy for global horizontal irradiance (GHI) and direct normal irradiance (DNI): best for weak convective clouds and cirrus, intermediate for stratiform clouds, and worst for strong convective clouds. Performance for diffuse horizontal irradiance (DHI) is less influenced by cloud types. Cloud albedo dominates all three irradiances for Dc, while both cloud albedo and cloud fraction are influential for other cloud types. A 12 %~33 % improvement in accuracy at 6-hour lead time compared to the benchmark smart model confirms the effectiveness of incorporating physics into the models for various cloud types; further improvements are expected by directly integrating cloud type information into forecasting models by modifying the physical formulation of cloud-radiation interaction, and/or using more advanced machine learning models.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Perspectives on the integration between first-principles and data-driven modeling

Efficiently embedding and/or integrating mechanistic information with data-driven models is essential if it is desired to simultaneously take advantage of both engineering principles and data-science. Further the opportunity for hybridization occurs in many scenarios, such as the development of a faster model of an accurate high-fidelity computer model; the correction of a mechanistic model that does not fully-capture the physical phenomena of the system; or the integration of a data-driven component approximating an unknown correlation within a mechanistic model. At the same time, different techniques have been proposed and applied in different literatures to achieve this hybridization, such as hybrid modeling, physics-informed Machine Learning (ML) and model calibration. In this paper we review the methods, challenges, applications and algorithms of these three research areas and discuss them in the context of the different hybridization scenarios. Moreover, we provide a comprehensive comparison of the hybridization techniques with respect to their differences and similarities, as well as advantages and limitations and future perspectives. Finally, we apply and illustrate hybrid modeling, physics-informed ML and model calibration via a chemical reactor case study.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗