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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 649 records · Page 36
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Prediction of DIII-D Pedestal Structure From Externally Controllable Parameters

The sharp increase of pressure at the edge of a high confinement mode (H-mode) plasma, the pedestal, strongly impacts overall plasma performance. Predicting the pedestal is a necessity to control and optimize tokamak operations. Here, an experimental data-driven machine learning (ML) approach is presented that predicts the pedestal heights and widths of electron density (n e ) and electron temperature (T e ) profiles as well as the separatrix ne from externally controllable parameters such as the plasma shape, heating method and power, and gas puff rate and integrated gas puff. The OMFIT framework was used with DIII-D data to efficiently, robustly, and automatically build a database of pedestal parameters to train machine learning models. Database creation was enabled by the search engine tool for DIII-D data, TokSearch, which parallelizes data fetching, enabling fast searches through basic signals of thousands of DIII-D shots and selection of relevant time intervals. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) separated the database into three clusters that represent classes of plasma shapes that are regularly used in DIII-D. The most important parameters for setting the pedestal structure were plasma current (I p ), toroidal magnetic field (B Φ ), neutral beam heating power (P NBI ) and shaping quantities. The Deep Jointly Informed Neural Networks (DJINN) algorithm was applied to identify suitable neural network (NN) architectures that appropriately capture the features of the pedestal database. Separate NNs were implemented for each pedestal parameter, and ensembling methods were used to improve the prediction accuracy and allowed estimation of the prediction uncertainty. The pedestal predictions of the test dataset lie within the measurement uncertainties of the pedestal parameters. The NN outperformed simple Linear Regression (LR) analysis, indicating non-linear dependencies in the pedestal structure. The presented achievements illustrate a promising path for future research, using feature extraction to infer experimental trends and thereby improve pedestal models as well as deploying NN for a fast pedestal prediction in DIII-D scenario development.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Deep learning of parameterized equations with applications to uncertainty quantification

We propose a learning algorithm for discovering unknown parameterized dynamical systems by using observational data of the state variables. Our method is built upon and extends the recent work of discovering unknown dynamical systems, in particular those using deep neural network (DNN). We propose a DNN structure, largely based upon the residual network (ResNet), to not only learn the unknown form of the governing equation but also take into account the random effect embedded in the system, which is generated by the random parameters. Once the DNN model is successfully constructed, it is able to produce system prediction over longer term and for arbitrary parameter values. For uncertainty quantification, it allows us to conduct uncertainty analysis by evaluating solution statistics over the parameter space.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Bayesian Learning of Adatom Interactions from Atomically Resolved Imaging Data

Atomic structures and adatom geometries of surfaces encode information about the thermodynamics and kinetics of the processes that lead to their formation, and which can be captured by a generative physical model. In this work, we develop a workflow based on a machine-learning-based analysis of scanning tunneling microscopy images to reconstruct the atomic and adatom positions, and a Bayesian optimization procedure to minimize statistical distance between the chosen physical models and experimental observations. We optimize the parameters of a 2- and 3-parameter Ising model describing surface ordering and use the derived generative model to make predictions across the parameter space. For concentration dependence, we compare the predicted morphologies at different adatom concentrations with the dissimilar regions on the sample surfaces that serendipitously had different adatom concentrations. The proposed workflow can be used to reconstruct the thermodynamic models and associated uncertainties from the experimental observations of materials microstructures. The code used in the manuscript is available at https://github.com/saimani5/Adatom_interactions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS1997

Efficient Evaluation and Optimization of Structural Reliability

Use of approximations for calculating the structural failure probability under uncertainties is a necessary aspect. But efficient use of suitable approximations at different stages of reliability prediction and design makes this valuable tool practical for many large scale structures. This research addresses the modern approximation concepts and their utility in structural reliability estimation. Emphasis is placed on building higher order approximations using intervening variables to closely represent the nonlinear limit state functions. Several test problems with highly nonlinear performance functions are used to demonstrate the accuracy of the proposed method. Many of the structural problems are modeled and simulated using the finite element methods (FEM) for obtaining a detailed structural response. FEM is a computationally intensive numerical procedure with a large number of degrees of freedom. With an increase in the complexity of the structural model and the multidisciplinary nature of analyses, the number of limit states and their computation increases very significantly. The requirement of frequent repetitive analysis of the structure hinders the utility of any tool and discourages that approach from being used. One particular tool which faces this difficulty is the computation of the structural reliability under parametric uncertainties.

Grandhi, Ramana V.↗
DOE OSTI2020

UQpy: A general purpose Python package and development environment for uncertainty quantification

In this paper, we present the UQpy software toolbox, an open-source Python package for general uncertainty quantification (UQ) in mathematical and physical systems. The software serves as both a user-ready toolbox that includes many of the latest methods for UQ in computational modeling and a convenient development environment for Python programmers advancing the field of UQ. The paper presents an introduction to the software's architecture and existing capabilities, divided in the code in a set of modules centered around different UQ tasks such as sampling methods, generation of random processes and random fields, probabilistic inverse modeling, reliability analysis, surrogate modeling, and active learning. The paper also highlights the importance of the RunModel module, which is used to drive simulations in the uncertainty analyses performed in UQpy. This module conveniently allows the user to define computational models directly in Python, or to run simulations from a third-party software in serial or in parallel. To illustrate the various capabilities, two examples are tracked throughout the paper and analyzed repeatedly for various UQ tasks. The first is a Python model solving a nonlinear structural dynamics problem, used to illustrate UQpy's capabilities in sampling and forward propagation of high dimensional random vectors (stochastic processes), and probabilistic inference. The second model is a third-party Abaqus finite element model solving the thermomechanical response of a beam structure. This example is used to illustrate UQpy's capabilities in variance reduction sampling techniques, reliability analysis, surrogate modeling and active learning techniques.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Pebble Tanker Model for Nuclear Criticality Safety Needs

This report documents a study performed to investigate the requirements for criticality safety benchmark experiments for high-assay, low-enriched uranium (HALEU) fuel in transportation applications. In this work, an exploratory application model, the “Pebble Tanker,” was developed to represent TRISO fuel in a transportation scenario for an analysis of the validation basis in industrial quantities. An aspect of the criticality validation process involves assessing the “similarity” between application and experimental benchmark systems through an integral index parameter evaluation. Here, this includes propagating nuclear data uncertainties and calculating a correlation coefficient (hereinafter referred to as “c k ”) to evaluate the similarity of benchmark experiments compared with the application Pebble Tanker model. Finding sufficient critical benchmark experiments allows for the evaluation of bias and bias uncertainty, thus determining the upper subcritical limit (USL) of the transportation package. A target k eff of ~0.94 was used in this work to establish appropriate modeling conditions, reflecting a reasonable estimate for a USL. Two container models were investigated: one with the Hermes-type pebble and one with the Pebble Bed Modular Reactor (PBMR)–type pebble. The models were simplified, considering only fuel, containment structure, and either water or air. This allows a focus on the underlying physics of applications involving TRISO fuel pebbles using the Pebble Tanker model. A crucial consideration is the transport package's ability to safely hold pebbles while flooded, maintaining subcritical conditions. Tools available in the SCALE 6.3.1 suite—the CSAS6-Shift, TSUNAMI-3D-Shift, and TSUNAMI-IP sequences—were employed for neutronics and sensitivity and uncertainty (S/U) analysis of the Pebble Tanker. Findings demonstrated sufficient available critical experiment benchmarks to perform a validation of the Pebble Tanker in the most reactive state, i.e., when the Tanker is flooded.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Isotope dependence of muon-to-electron conversion

The lepton-flavor-violating conversion of a muon into an electron in the field of a nucleus is one of the most sensitive probes of physics beyond the Standard Model and the experiments Mu2e, COMET, and DeeMe will explore uncharted terrain in the near future. An observation of this μ - → e - conversion process opens up the possibility to distinguish the underlying operator or new-physics model by exploiting the target-nucleus dependence of the conversion rate. To facilitate the choice of optimal targets we provide μ - → e - conversion rates for all stable isotopes and estimate nuclear-structure uncertainties. Our results enable studies of mixed or enriched target materials that are particularly promising for distinguishing scenarios in which the muon converts either on protons or neutrons.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Systematic Review and Integrated Approach to Modeling of Aging Utility Scale PV Systems

The growing deployment of utility-scale photovoltaic (PV) systems has increased the importance of techno-economic modeling operational photovoltaic (PV) systems for predicting energy yield, optimizing asset management, and informing financial decisions. Through a systematic review of literature and current industry practices, we review the different common modeling practices of a system's configuration and age, performance and degradation, operation and maintenance (O&M), while also focusing on specific considerations for repowering, revamping, and decommissioning. Building on the synthesis, we develop a structured framework for techno-economic modeling of operating PV systems that integrate performance and degradation analysis, a decommissioning and repowering cost model that estimates the system's end-of-life costs to reduce uncertainty quantifications and improve consistency across the sector. This research contributes to improved modeling methodologies and potentially to reduced financial performance requirements by providing practitioners with input resources and practical approaches to estimate performance, degradation, and costs associated with continued operation, revamping, repowering, or decommissioning decisions.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1988

Object oriented studies into artificial space debris

A prototype simulation is being developed under contract to the Royal Aerospace Establishment (RAE), Farnborough, England, to assist in the discrimination of artificial space objects/debris. The methodology undertaken has been to link Object Oriented programming, intelligent knowledge based system (IKBS) techniques and advanced computer technology with numeric analysis to provide a graphical, symbolic simulation. The objective is to provide an additional layer of understanding on top of conventional classification methods. Use is being made of object and rule based knowledge representation, multiple reasoning, truth maintenance and uncertainty. Software tools being used include Knowledge Engineering Environment (KEE) and SymTactics for knowledge representation. Hooks are being developed within the SymTactics framework to incorporate mathematical models describing orbital motion and fragmentation. Penetration and structural analysis can also be incorporated. SymTactics is an Object Oriented discrete event simulation tool built as a domain specific extension to the KEE environment. The tool provides facilities for building, debugging and monitoring dynamic (military) simulations.

Adamson, J. M.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Variable Complexity Optimization of Composite Structures

The use of several levels of modeling in design has been dubbed variable complexity modeling. The work under the grant focused on developing variable complexity modeling strategies with emphasis on response surface techniques. Applications included design of stiffened composite plates for improved damage tolerance, the use of response surfaces for fitting weights obtained by structural optimization, and design against uncertainty using response surface techniques.

Haftka, Raphael T.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Application of FUN3D and CFL3D to the Third Workshop on CFD Uncertainty Analysis

Two Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes computer codes - one unstructured and one structured - are applied to two workshop cases (for the 3rd Workshop on CFD Uncertainty Analysis, held at Instituto Superior Tecnico, Lisbon, in October 2008) for the purpose of uncertainty analysis. The Spalart-Allmaras turbulence model is employed. The first case uses the method of manufactured solution and is intended as a verification case. In other words, the CFD solution is expected to approach the exact solution as the grid is refined. The second case is a validation case (comparison against experiment), for which modeling errors inherent in the turbulence model and errors/uncertainty in the experiment may prevent close agreement. The results from the two computer codes are also compared. This exercise verifies that the codes are consistent both with the exact manufactured solution and with each other. In terms of order property, both codes behave as expected for the manufactured solution. For the backward facing step, CFD uncertainty on the finest grid is computed and is generally very low for both codes (whose results are nearly identical). Agreement with experiment is good at some locations for particular variables, but there are also many areas where the CFD and experimental uncertainties do not overlap.

Rumsey, C. L.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Multiscale Modeling of Woven Ablative Thermal Protection System Materials

The NASA Entry Systems Modeling project maintains a portfolio of computational model and tool development activities focused on reducing performance uncertainties in ablative Thermal Protection System (TPS) materials for NASA missions. The development activities span material scale and strive to allow microstructural characterization of material structure and properties, mesoscale analyses of damage, and macroscale evaluation of heatshield performance and recession in a given aerothermodynamic environment. This talk will detail the application of developed capabilities at all three scales to the woven TPS material that the Agency has selected as the heatshield for the Mars Sample Return Earth Entry System (MSR-EES) mission – 3D Mid-Density Carbon Phenolic (3MDCP). Each of the applications focuses on driving down uncertainties in material performance and thus risk for MSR-EES and other future missions that may leverage woven TPS. At the microscale, machine learning techniques are used to characterize images from destructive microscopy and inform structural variability. At the mesoscale, Lagrangian techniques are used to simulate ballistic impact and interpret damage modes noted in experiments. At the macroscale, coupled flow-material response techniques are validated by Arc Jet testing to enable heatshield design for missions with massive ablation.

Justin B Haskins↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Atmospheric Variability and Measurement Uncertainty: Pitfalls in Averaging in situ Data

Satellite measurements and atmospheric models, two essential components of the integrated global observing system, provide crucial tools for monitoring and predicting regional and global foci, spanning numerous Earth Science fields. Unfortunately, models can lack the spatial and temporal resolution needed to resolve finer scale structure. Satellite measurements also have similar tempo-spatial restriction issues, but additionally can only measure certain species and can have biases that must be evaluated. Ground measurement networks are critical components of this system, by providing both independent inputs of species needed by models (including those that satellites do not provide) and assisting with investigation of biases in satellite products. Similarly, aircraft measurements play a vital role in closing the gaps between satellite measurements, model products, and ground monitoring networks by providing high accuracy, high-resolution data on local to regional spatial scales. Therefore, both ground-based and airborne observations are widely used to assess model predictions and satellite observations. One of the great challenges in using both ground and aircraft data in this fashion is matching the data temporally and spatially to the model/satellite data. A meaningful comparison with model or satellite requires a solid assessment of the variability of the in-situ measurements, which include both the instrument uncertainty and the statistical uncertainty due to atmospheric variability. While instrument uncertainty is generally more straightforwardly characterized, it can be challenging to accurately capture this variability uncertainty as it often presents in a non-Gaussian manner (e.g. emission plumes, frontal passages). We will present results examining spatial and temporal variability over a selection of scales relevant to satellite measurements and models of several in situ measurement species spanning both airborne and ground measurements. The extent of non-Gaussian variability will be quantified, and we will discuss additional statistical parameters that help assess the fitness of gaussian variability assumption when temporally or spatially averaging.

satellite validation↗
NASA NTRS1998

Worst case estimation of homology design by convex analysis

The methodology of homology design is investigated for optimum design of advanced structures. for which the achievement of delicate tasks by the aid of active control system is demanded. The proposed formulation of homology design, based on the finite element sensitivity analysis, necessarily requires the specification of external loadings. The formulation to evaluate the worst case for homology design caused by uncertain fluctuation of loadings is presented by means of the convex model of uncertainty, in which uncertainty variables are assigned to discretized nodal forces and are confined within a conceivable convex hull given as a hyperellipse. The worst case of the distortion from objective homologous deformation is estimated by the Lagrange multiplier method searching the point to maximize the error index on the boundary of the convex hull. The validity of the proposed method is demonstrated in a numerical example using the eleven-bar truss structure.

Yoshikawa, N.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Generalized Bayesian MARS: Tools for Stochastic Computer Model Emulation

The multivariate adaptive regression spline (MARS) approach of Friedman and its Bayesian counterpart are effective approaches for the emulation of computer models. The traditional assumption of Gaussian errors limits the usefulness of MARS, and many popular alternatives, when dealing with stochastic computer models. Here, we propose a generalized Bayesian MARS (GBMARS) framework which admits the broad class of generalized hyperbolic distributions as the induced likelihood function. This allows us to develop tools for the emulation of stochastic simulators which are parsimonious, scalable, and interpretable and require minimal tuning, while providing powerful predictive and uncertainty quantification capabilities. GBMARS is capable of robust regression with t distributions, quantile regression with asymmetric Laplace distributions, and a general form of “Normal-Wald” regression in which the shape of the error distribution and the structure of the mean function are learned simultaneously. We demonstrate the effectiveness of GBMARS on various stochastic computer models, and we show that it compares favorably to several popular alternatives.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Regression of exchangeable relational arrays

Relational arrays represent measures of association between pairs of actors, often in varied contexts or over time. Trade flows between countries, financial transactions between individuals, contact frequencies between school children in classrooms and dynamic protein-protein interactions are all examples of relational arrays. Elements of a relational array are often modelled as a linear function of observable covariates. Uncertainty estimates for regression coefficient estimators, and ideally the coefficient estimators themselves, must account for dependence between elements of the array, e.g., relations involving the same actor. Existing estimators of standard errors that recognize such relational dependence rely on estimating extremely complex, heterogeneous structure across actors. This paper develops a new class of parsimonious coefficient and standard error estimators for regressions of relational arrays. Here we leverage an exchangeability assumption to derive standard error estimators that pool information across actors, and are substantially more accurate than existing estimators in a variety of settings. This exchangeability assumption is pervasive in network and array models in the statistics literature, but not previously considered when adjusting for dependence in a regression setting with relational data. We demonstrate improvements in inference theoretically, via a simulation study, and by analysis of a dataset involving international trade.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Bond Line Thickness Estimation in Composite Structures Using Multiple Inspection Techniques

Imaging and other nondestructive evaluation techniques are commonly used for material characterization and defect recognition in safety critical aerospace applications, with data fusion providing the framework for uncertainty quantification in these contexts. Most commonly, forward physics-based modeling predicts the response conditioned on material properties and defect assumptions, and probabilistic methods are used to infer the hidden state of the subject of the inspection from a combination of prior information, likelihoods, and inspection data. In this paper Bayesian methods are used to estimate bond thickness in lap joints comprised of aluminum adherends using a combination of infrared thermography and ultrasound. The concept of the conflation of probability distributions is applied to combine the posterior distributions derived from thermography and ultrasound and the quality of the fused estimates are compared against the individual estimates against synthetic data that was created to mimic the inspection of a lap joint comprised of aluminum adherends.

thermal nondestructive evaluation↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Bond Line Thickness Estimation in Composite Structures Using Multiple Inspection Techniques

Imaging and other nondestructive evaluation techniques are commonly used for material characterization and defect recognition in safety critical aerospace applications, with data fusion providing the framework for uncertainty quantification in these contexts. Most commonly, forward physics-based modeling predicts the response conditioned on material properties and defect assumptions, and probabilistic methods are used to infer the hidden state of subject of the inspection from a combination of prior information, likelihoods, and inspection data. In this paper Bayesian methods are used to estimate bond thickness in lap joints comprised of aluminum adherends using a combination of infrared thermography, digital radiography, and ultrasound. The accuracy of the fused estimates are validated against data generated from synthetic specimens, and by comparison against high resolution X-ray computed tomography inspections of built specimens.

thermal nondestructive evaluation↗