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At least 649 records · Page 36

Probabilistic Unsteady Aerodynamic Analysis

Probabilistic CFD design is needed because we are asked to do more with less. To cost effectively accomplish the design task, we need to formally quantify the effect of uncertainties (variables) in the design. Probabilistic design is one effective method to formally quantify the effect of uncertainties. Our objective is to establish a revolutionary new early design process, by developing non-deterministic physics-based probabilistic design tools, which will include all the life cycle processes. This work was concerned with the usefulness of parametric optimization method coupled with a Navier-Stokes analysis code for the aero-thermodynamic design of turbomachinery combustor liner. The interconnection between the CFD code and NESSUS codes will facilitate the coupling between the thermal profiles and structural design. We have developed new concepts for reducing the computational cost of unsteady, three-dimensional, compressible aerodynamic analyses for multistage turbomachinery flows. The flow was modeled by the three-dimensional Favre-Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes equations using the k-E turbulence closure, which was integrated using an implicit third-order upwind solver. The methodology developed in this work is expected to lead to the design optimization of turbomachinery blades.

Gorla, Rama S. R.↗

Overview of the Temperature Response in the Mesosphere and Lower Thermosphere to Solar Activity

The natural variability in the terrestrial mesosphere needs to be known to correctly quantify global change. The response of the thermal structure to solar activity variations is an important factor. Some of the earlier studies highly overestimated the mesospheric solar response. Modeling of the mesospheric temperature response to solar activity has evolved in recent years, and measurement techniques as well as the amount of data have improved. Recent investigations revealed much smaller solar signatures and in some case no significant solar signal at all. However, not much effort has been made to synthesize the results available so far. This article presents an overview of the energy budget of the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) and an up-to-date status of solar response in temperature structure based on recently available observational data. An objective evaluation of the data sets is attempted and important factors of uncertainty are discussed.

Beig, Gufran↗

The Aqua-Planet Experiment (APE): CONTROL SST Simulation

Climate simulations by 16 atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) are compared on an aqua-planet, a water-covered Earth with prescribed sea surface temperature varying only in latitude. The idealised configuration is designed to expose differences in the circulation simulated by different models. Basic features of the aqua-planet climate are characterised by comparison with Earth. The models display a wide range of behaviour. The balanced component of the tropospheric mean flow, and mid-latitude eddy covariances subject to budget constraints, vary relatively little among the models. In contrast, differences in damping in the dynamical core strongly influence transient eddy amplitudes. Historical uncertainty in modelled lower stratospheric temperatures persists in APE.Aspects of the circulation generated more directly by interactions between the resolved fluid dynamics and parameterized moist processes vary greatly. The tropical Hadley circulation forms either a single or double inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) at the equator, with large variations in mean precipitation. The equatorial wave spectrum shows a wide range of precipitation intensity and propagation characteristics. Kelvin mode-like eastward propagation with remarkably constant phase speed dominates in most models. Westward propagation, less dispersive than the equatorial Rossby modes, dominates in a few models or occurs within an eastward propagating envelope in others. The mean structure of the ITCZ is related to precipitation variability, consistent with previous studies.The aqua-planet global energy balance is unknown but the models produce a surprisingly large range of top of atmosphere global net flux, dominated by differences in shortwave reflection by clouds. A number of newly developed models, not optimised for Earth climate, contribute to this. Possible reasons for differences in the optimised models are discussed.The aqua-planet configuration is intended as one component of an experimental hierarchy used to evaluate AGCMs. This comparison does suggest that the range of model behaviour could be better understood and reduced in conjunction with Earth climate simulations. Controlled experimentation is required to explore individual model behavior and investigate convergence of the aqua-planet climate with increasing resolution.

AGCM↗

Pinhole occulter experiment

Viewgraphs and charts from a briefing summarize the accomplishments, results, conclusions, and recommendations of a feasibility study using the Pinhole Occulter Facility (POF). Accomplishments for 1986 include: (1) improved IPS Gimbal Model; (2) improved Crew Motion Disturbance Model; (3) use of existing shuttle on-orbit simulation to study the effects of orbiter attitude deadband size on POF performance; (4) increased understanding of maximum performance expected from current actuator/sensor set; (5) use of TREETOPS nonlinear time domain program to obtain system dynamics describing the complex multibody flexible structures; (6) use of HONEY-X design tool to design and evaluate multivariable compensator for stability, robustness, and performance; (7) application of state-of-the-art compensator design methodology Linear Quadratic Gaussian/Loop Transfer Recovery (LQG/LTR); and (8) examination of tolerance required on knowledge of the POF boom flexible mode frequencies to insure stability, using structure uncertainty analysis.

Ring, Jeff↗

Multiscale modeling to evaluate proposed space-based Doppler lidar sampling strategies

A proposal has been made to place a pulsed Doppler lidar on a space platform (Huffaker, et al., 1980; Emmitt, 1982) in a low earth orbit (200 to 800 km) to measure the atmospheric winds with a spatial resolution commensurate with the current continental rawinsonde network density - i.e., 300 to 500 km resolution. In the case of the space-based doppler lidar, the full range of space scales applies. Single shot pulses with dimensions of 10 x 1000 meters are used to sample areas 100,000 x 100,000 meters to resolved mass flow structure with wavelength of 1 million meters. Simulation studies, therefore, require an equally broad range of atmospheric models. A general circulation model is appropriate to answer questions regarding the impact of a global wind measuring system upon synoptic forecasts. Since the nominal resolution of the spacebased system is expected to be a few 100's of kilometers, then a numerical model with mesoscale dynamics is required. The meaning of an average Doppler shift within a laser pulse volume must be evaluated with models of turbulent/convective scale motions and aerosol gradients. Examples of how models on all these scales have been applied in an ongoing simulation study are presented. In particular, the uncertainties in a mesoscale wind estimate are separated into those arising from pulse scale variances and those due to sample distribution within a prescribed resolution volume. Trade-offs between accuracy and representativeness are discussed in terms of the model results.

Emmitt, G. D.↗

Calibration and Validation of Landsat Tree Cover in the Taiga-Tundra Ecotone

Monitoring current forest characteristics in the taiga-tundra ecotone (TTE) at multiple scales is critical for understanding its vulnerability to structural changes. A 30 m spatial resolution Landsat-based tree canopy cover map has been calibrated and validated in the TTE with reference tree cover data from airborne LiDAR and high resolution spaceborne images across the full range of boreal forest tree cover. This domain-specific calibration model used estimates of forest height to determine reference forest cover that best matched Landsat estimates. The model removed the systematic under-estimation of tree canopy cover greater than 80% and indicated that Landsat estimates of tree canopy cover more closely matched canopies at least 2 m in height rather than 5 m. The validation improved estimates of uncertainty in tree canopy cover in discontinuous TTE forests for three temporal epochs (2000, 2005, and 2010) by reducing systematic errors, leading to increases in tree canopy cover uncertainty. Average pixel-level uncertainties in tree canopy cover were 29.0%, 27.1% and 31.1% for the 2000, 2005 and 2010 epochs, respectively. Maps from these calibrated data improve the uncertainty associated with Landsat tree canopy cover estimates in the discontinuous forests of the circumpolar TTE.

Montesano, Paul Mannix↗

Optical Characterization of Component Wear and Near-Field Plasma of the Hermes Thruster

Optical emission spectral (OES) data are presented which correlate trends in sputtered species and the near-field plasma with the Hall-Effect Rocket with Magnetic Shielding (HERMeS) thruster operating condition. The relative density of singly-ionized xenon (Xe II) is estimated using a collisional-radiative model. OES data were collected at three radial and several axial locations downstream of the thruster's exit plane. These data were deconvolved to show the structure for the near-field plasma as a function of thruster operating condition. The magnetic field is shown to have a much greater affect on plasma structure than the discharge voltage with the primary ionization/acceleration zone boundary being similar for all nominal operating voltages at constant power. OES measurement of sputtered boron shows that the HERMeS thruster is magnetically shielded across its operating envelope. Preliminary assessment of carbon sputtered from the keeper face suggest it increases significantly with operating voltage, but the uncertainty associated with these measurements is very high.

Electric Propulsion↗

PACE Technical Report Series, Volume 4: Cloud Retrievals in the PACE Mission: PACE Science Team Consensus Document

Earth is a complex dynamical system exhibiting continuous change in its atmosphere, ocean,and surface elements. Nearly all (99.97%) of the energy driving these systems is linked to the Sun. Measurements of reflected sunlight contain a unique signature of wavelength-specific scattering and absorption interactions occurring between incoming solar energy and atmospheric (molecules, aerosols,clouds) and surface features Clouds can affect significantly both shortwave and long wave radiation, depending on altitude/vertical structure, thermodynamic phase, and optical properties. Low, warm, and optically thick clouds predominantly have a cooling effect, while high, cold, optically thin clouds can cause warming by absorbing warmer radiation emitted from the surface and lower atmosphere.When the net difference between outgoing and incoming solar radiation is matched by the net infrared radiation emitted to space, the Earth's climate is in radiative balance. While radiative forcing components (GHGs, aerosols - direct and indirect) contribute to a net radiative imbalance, climate sensitivity is ultimately determined by the contribution of various system feed backs. The role of cloud feedback in a warming climate is currently the largest inter-model uncertainty in climate sensitivity and therefore in climate prediction [Bony and Dufresne 2005]. A comprehensive understanding of current cloud propertiesand dynamic/microphysical processes requires a global perspective from satellites.

Plankton, Aerosol, Cloud, ocean Ecosystem (PACE)↗

Ultraviolet extinction toward five open clusters, and the accuracy of IUE extinction measurements

The UV extinction curves of 33 main-sequence B stars in five open clusters are presented and analyzed. An analytic fitting function is introduced which represents the observed curves and codifies the structure of the 2175 A extinction bump. A set of extinction parameters are also defined which describe the shape of the far-UV extinction. These data are first used to determine whether the extinction toward any of the clusters is uniform, i.e., whether it can be represented by a single curve for the cluster. This is accomplished by comparing the observed scatter of the far-UV extinction measurements toward a given cluster with that predicted by an error model. The extinction toward four of the five clusters is found to be uniform. The extinction data for those clusters with uniform extinction are then used to determine the observational uncertainties in other extinction parameters for which a priori error estimates cannot be made. With one exception, all of the parameters which describe the shapes of UV extinction curves differ significantly from cluster to cluster. The exception is the central position of the UV extinction bump, which has the same value for all of the cluster extinction curves. Applications and interpretation of the results are given elsewhere.

Massa, D.↗

Advanced probabilistic method of development

Advanced structural reliability methods are utilized on the Probabilistic Structural Analysis Methods (PSAM) project to provide a tool for analysis and design of space propulsion system hardware. The role of the effort at the University of Arizona is to provide reliability technology support to this project. PSAM computer programs will provide a design tool for analyzing uncertainty associated with thermal and mechanical loading, material behavior, geometry, and the analysis methods used. Specifically, reliability methods are employed to perform sensitivity analyses, to establish the distribution of a critical response variable (e.g., stress, deflection), to perform reliability assessment, and ultimately to produce a design which will minimize cost and/or weight. Uncertainties in the design factors of space propulsion hardware are described by probability models constructed using statistical analysis of data. Statistical methods are employed to produce a probability model, i.e., a statistical synthesis or summary of each design variable in a format suitable for reliability analysis and ultimately, design decisions.

Wirsching, P. H.↗

Improvements in the Uncertainty Model in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies Surface Temperature (GISTEMP) Analysis

We outline a new and improved uncertainty analysis for the Goddard Institute of Space Studies (GISS) Surface Temperature product version 4 (GISTEMP v4). Historical spatial variations in surface temperature anomalies are derived from historical weather station data and ocean data from ships, buoys and other sensors. Uncertainties arise from measurement uncertainty, changes in spatial coverage of the station record, and systematic biases due to technology shifts and land cover changes. Previously published uncertainty estimates for GISTEMP included only the effect of incomplete station coverage. Here, we update this term using currently available spatial distributions of source data, state‐of‐the‐art reanalyses and incorporate independently derived estimates for ocean data processing, station homogenization and other structural biases. The resulting 95% uncertainties are near 0.05° C in the global annual mean for the last 50 years, and increase going back further in time reaching 0.15° C in 1880. In addition, we quantify the benefits and inherent uncertainty due to the GISTEMP interpolation and averaging method. We use the total uncertainties to estimate the probability for each record year in the GISTEMP to actually be the true record year (to that date), and conclude with 86% likelihood that 2016 was indeed the hottest year of the instrumental period (so far).

Nathan J L Lenssen↗

Estimating Software Reliability for Space Launch Vehicles in Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA)

It is acutely recognized in the Probabilistic Risk assessment (PRA) field that software plays a defining role in overall system reliability for all modern systems across a wide variety of industries. Regardless if the software is embedded firmware for working components or elements, part of a Human-Machine-Interface, or automated command and control logic, the success of the software to fulfill its function under nominal and off-nominal environments will be a dominant contributor to system reliability. It is also recognized that software reliability prediction and estimation is one of the more challenging and questionable aspects of any PRA or system analyses due to the nature of software and its integration with physics based systems. Irrespective of this dichotomy, any incorporation of software reliability methods requires that the contributions are accountable, quantitative, and tractable. This paper provides a brief overview of software reliability methods, establishes some minimum requirements that the methods should incorporate for completeness, and provides a logic structure for applying software reliability. Model resolution will be discussed that supports current testing plans and trade studies. We will provide initial recommendations for use in the NASA PRA and present a future dynamic option for software and PRA. Space Launch Vehicle Software is recognized to be reliable in static conditions, yet relatively vulnerable to a set of failure modes in changing environments/flight phases. Two quantitative methods were chosen to incorporate software reliability into a Space Launch Vehicle PRA accounting for phase adjustments. One method predicts latent software failure using statistical methods, and the second provides estimates of coding errors and software operating system failures based on test and historical data, respectively. Software uncertainty will also be discussed. We determined that recommendations for PRA software reliability should be modeled at the software module level where multiple software components compose a module and combinations of the software architecture can lead to a functional failure.

Novack, Steven↗

Analysis and Prediction of VFR Vs IFR Traffic Behavior to Support Uncrewed Aircraft Flight Operations at Regional Airports

Uncrewed Aircraft flight operations at a regional airport will be affected by the uncertainty in the Visual Flight Rules traffic around. This paper analyzes Visual Flight Rules traffic behavior, compares it with Instrument Flight Rules traffic and develops traffic prediction methods to support uncrewed aircraft flight operations. The spatio-temporal distribution of traffic operating under Visual Flight Rules and Instrument Flight Rules was analyzed from one month of historical track data around Fort Worth Alliance airport as a representative regional airport. The traffic behavior was visualized as occupancy maps generated at different altitudes. The Instrument Flight Rules traffic was concentrated in fewer regions of the airspace along structured routes where the risk of interacting with one or more flights reached close to fifty percent in some areas. Visual Flight Rules traffic was spread over more regions, mostly segregated from the Instrument Flight Rules regions, and the risk of interaction was lower reaching up to twenty-five percent on average over the month in some regions. The interaction risk was predicted using predictive occupancy maps over multiple time horizons and conditioned on time and partial observation of traffic in the vicinity. The month-to-month predictability of Visual Flight Rules risk was lower than that of the Instrument Flight Rules traffic, consistently over all the conditions analyzed. However, the prediction and its accuracy were demonstrated to be sensitive to the conditions used. The predictive models generated can be used to support both strategic planning and in-flight decision-making by uncrewed aircraft during flight operations while maintaining an acceptable risk of interacting with other traffic.

VFR↗

Analysis and Prediction of VFR Vs IFR Traffic Behavior to Support Uncrewed Aircraft Flight Operations at Regional Airports

Uncrewed Aircraft flight operations at a regional airport will be affected by the uncertainty in the Visual Flight Rules traffic around. This paper analyzes Visual Flight Rules traffic behavior, compares it with Instrument Flight Rules traffic and develops traffic prediction methods to support uncrewed aircraft flight operations. The spatio-temporal distribution of traffic operating under Visual Flight Rules and Instrument Flight Rules was analyzed from one month of historical track data around Fort Worth Alliance airport as a representative regional airport. The traffic behavior was visualized as occupancy maps generated at different altitudes. The Instrument Flight Rules traffic was concentrated in fewer regions of the airspace along structured routes where the risk of interacting with one or more flights reached close to fifty percent in some areas. Visual Flight Rules traffic was spread over more regions, mostly segregated from the Instrument Flight Rules regions, and the risk of interaction was lower reaching up to twenty-five percent on average over the month in some regions. The interaction risk was predicted using predictive occupancy maps over multiple time horizons and conditioned on time and partial observation of traffic in the vicinity. The month-to-month predictability of Visual Flight Rules risk was lower than that of the Instrument Flight Rules traffic, consistently over all the conditions analyzed. However, the prediction and its accuracy were demonstrated to be sensitive to the conditions used. The predictive models generated can be used to support both strategic planning and in-flight decision-making by uncrewed aircraft during flight operations while maintaining an acceptable risk of interacting with other traffic.

VFR↗

Development of a Modeling Framework to Support Control Investigations of Sailcraft Missions A First Cut: ABLE Sailcraft Dynamics Model

Solar Sailcraft, the stuff of dreams of the H.G. Wells generation, is now a rapidly maturing reality. The promise of unlimited propulsive power by harnessing stellar radiation is close to realization. Currently, efforts are underway to build, prototype and test two configurations. These sails are designed to meet a 20m sail requirement, under guidance of the In-Space Propulsion (ISP) technology program office at MSFC. While these sails will not fly , they are the first steps in improving our understanding of the processes and phenomena at work. As part of the New Millennium Program (NMP) the ST9 technology validation mission hopes to launch and fly a solar sail by 2010 or sooner. Though the Solar Sail community has been studying and validating various concepts over two decades, it was not until recent breakthroughs in structural and material technology, has made possible to build sails that could be launched. With real sails that can be tested (albeit under earth conditions), the real task of engineering a viable spacecraft has finally commenced. Since it is not possible to accurately or practically recreate the actual operating conditions of the sailcraft (zero-G, vacuum and extremely low temperatures), much of the work has focused on developing accurate models that can be used to predict behavior in space, and for sails that are 6-10 times the size of currently existing sails. Since these models can be validated only with real test data under "earth" conditions, the process of modeling and the identification of uncertainty due to model assumptions and scope need to be closely considered. Sailcraft models that exist currently, are primarily focused on detailed physical representations at the component level, these are intended to support prototyping efforts. System level models that cut across different sail configurations and control concepts while maintaining a consistent approach are non-existent. Much effort has been focused on the areas of thrust performance, solar radiation prediction, and sail membrane behavior vis-a-vis their reflective geometry, such as wrinkling/folding/furling as it pertains to thrust prediction. A parallel effort has been conducted on developing usable models for developing attitude control systems (ACS), for different sail configurations in different regimes. There has been very little by way of a system wide exploration of the impact of the various control schemes, thrust prediction models for different sail configurations being considered.

Sarathy, Sriprakash↗

Genetic algorithm based fuzzy control of spacecraft autonomous rendezvous

The U.S. Bureau of Mines is currently investigating ways to combine the control capabilities of fuzzy logic with the learning capabilities of genetic algorithms. Fuzzy logic allows for the uncertainty inherent in most control problems to be incorporated into conventional expert systems. Although fuzzy logic based expert systems have been used successfully for controlling a number of physical systems, the selection of acceptable fuzzy membership functions has generally been a subjective decision. High performance fuzzy membership functions for a fuzzy logic controller that manipulates a mathematical model simulating the autonomous rendezvous of spacecraft are learned using a genetic algorithm, a search technique based on the mechanics of natural genetics. The membership functions learned by the genetic algorithm provide for a more efficient fuzzy logic controller than membership functions selected by the authors for the rendezvous problem. Thus, genetic algorithms are potentially an effective and structured approach for learning fuzzy membership functions.

Karr, C. L.↗

Finite Element Analysis and Test Correlation of a 10-Meter Inflation-Deployed Solar Sail

Under the direction of the NASA In-Space Propulsion Technology Office, the team of L Garde, NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Ball Aerospace, and NASA Langley Research Center has been developing a scalable solar sail configuration to address NASA's future space propulsion needs. Prior to a flight experiment of a full-scale solar sail, a comprehensive phased test plan is currently being implemented to advance the technology readiness level of the solar sail design. These tests consist of solar sail component, subsystem, and sub-scale system ground tests that simulate the vacuum and thermal conditions of the space environment. Recently, two solar sail test articles, a 7.4-m beam assembly subsystem test article and a 10-m four-quadrant solar sail system test article, were tested in vacuum conditions with a gravity-offload system to mitigate the effects of gravity. This paper presents the structural analyses simulating the ground tests and the correlation of the analyses with the test results. For programmatic risk reduction, a two-prong analysis approach was undertaken in which two separate teams independently developed computational models of the solar sail test articles using the finite element analysis software packages: NEiNastran and ABAQUS. This paper compares the pre-test and post-test analysis predictions from both software packages with the test data including load-deflection curves from static load tests, and vibration frequencies and mode shapes from vibration tests. The analysis predictions were in reasonable agreement with the test data. Factors that precluded better correlation of the analyses and the tests were uncertainties in the material properties, test conditions, and modeling assumptions used in the analyses.

Sleight, David W.↗

High sensitivity dynamic spectral search for flare star radio

We observed ten well-known flare stars with the Arcibo radio telescope at 1.4 GHz and 5 GHz, using a special observing technique to discriminate between real flares and radio freqeuncy interference. With a high sensitivity of 5.5 K/Jy at 1.4 GHz when averaged over a 50 MHz band, we are able to recognize flux enhancements as weak as approximately 6 mJy above the sky background variations. In about 85 hours of observation, about a dozen bursts were detected, only from AD Leo. All had flux densities lower than 70 mJy, which probably explains their lack of fine structures (except for the strongest one), such as were reported in the literature for stronger flares. Half of the bursts that we recorded are 100% circularly polarized, and half are not circularly polarized. Our results are a first attempt of reliable statistics on dMe flare rates at 1.4 GHz. The high brightness temperatures we infer for the observed bursts are interpreted in terms of coherent emission processes, either the cyclotron maser instability or plasma radiation. Efficiencies are comparable to those of solar or planetary radio emissions in the case of the cyclotron maser, and higher than the solar efficiency in the case of plasma radiation, with the caveat that there are great uncertainties in the coronal model and the source size.

Abada-Simon, M.↗