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Cosmic Background Rejection of the ICARUS experiment at Fermilab

The Short Baseline Neutrino program at Fermilab aims to explore significant regions of parameter space, applicable to sterile neutrinos at the eV mass scale, as suggested by existing experimental anomalies. To this purpose it exploits Liquid Argon Time Projection Chamber detectors located along the Booster Neutrino Beamline to measure both νe appearance and νµ disappearance: the Short Baseline Neutrino Detector and the ICARUS-T600 detector at 110 and 600 m from the neutrino source, respectively. The ICARUS T-600 Far Detector, located at shallow depth, is surrounded by a Cosmic Ray Tagger system to mitigate the cosmic ray background. On average ~ 11 muon tracks are expected to cross the detector during the ~ 1 ms drift time. The cosmic ray tagger is composed of plastic scintillator bars, ensuring near 4π coverage of the detector aiming at tagging cosmic muons and thus reject 𝛾s produced by muon interactions in the surrounding materials that can generate an electromagnetic showers mimicking a νe signal. The system allows one to disentangle cosmic rays from particles originated in a neutrino interaction inside the detector by measuring their position and crossing time. A synchronization of the cosmic ray tagger with the ICARUS photon detection system with a nanosecond accuracy allows one to reject cosmic particles recorded during the beam spill and thus select an enriched sample of neutrino triggered events ahead of the event reconstruction. An overview of the cosmic ray tagger system as well as its role in the neutrino events identification and cosmic background rejection will be presented.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Searching for Sterile Neutrinos In the NOvA Experiment and Measurements of Hadronic Energy Response with NOvA Test Beam Data

The NOvA (NuMI Off-Axis electron neutrino Appearance) experiment is a long-baseline neutrino oscillation experiment composed of two functionally identical detectors: a 300-ton Near Detector and a 14-kton Far Detector, separated by 809 km and placed 14 mrad off the axis of the NuMI neutrino beam created at Fermilab. This configuration enables NOvA’s rich neutrino physics program, which includes measuring neutrino mixing parameters, determining the neutrino mass hierarchy, probing CP violation in the leptonic sector, studying neutrino cross sections, searching for sterile neutrinos, and more.\\ In this thesis I will present two independent analyses developed within the NOvA experiment. The first is a search for light sterile neutrino oscillations in the 3+1 framework using $\nu_\mu$-CC and NC samples from the NOvA Near and Far Detectors. Light sterile neutrinos are hypothetical neutral leptons that do not participate in the weak interactions but can mix with the three known active neutrinos: $\nu_e$, $\nu_\mu$, and $\nu_\tau$. Anomalous results, such as $\nu_e$/$\bar{\nu}e$ appearance in a $\nu_\mu$ ($\bar{\nu}_\mu$) beam observed by the MiniBooNE and LSND experiments, can be explained by the existence of sterile neutrinos. Thus, proving the existence of this type of neutrino is essential. The latest results of these searches in the NOvA experiment, along with contributions to this effort, will be presented.\\ The second is the first measurement of the pion energy response using data from the NOvA Test Beam experiment. The NOvA Test Beam experiment, deployed at Fermilab, uses a scaled-down 30-ton NOvA detector to analyze tagged beamline particles. The beamline can select and identify electrons, muons, pions, kaons, and protons with momenta ranging from 0.4 to 1.4 GeV/c. Pions are an important component of the hadronic system in neutrino interactions, and understanding how the detector responds to these particles is crucial for the validation of the simulation and the reduction of detector calibration uncertainties, which remain one of the largest systematic uncertainties in NOvA analyses.

Dueñas Tonguino, David Francisco [Cincinnati U.] (↗

Complete Optimization of LPBF Ni-Based Alloys Down-Selected from FY23 Candidate Materials Including, Thermodynamic Modeling, Sample Fabrication and Microstructure Characterization

The goal of the Advanced Materials and Manufacturing Technologies (AMMT) program is to accelerate the incorporation of new materials and manufacturing technologies into advanced nuclear-related systems. Although 316H stainless steel fabricated by laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) has already been identified as an alloy that could have a significant effect on various reactor technologies, many other materials and manufacturing techniques are being evaluated. Nickel-based alloys typically offer higher-temperature capabilities compared with advanced stainless steels, and previous reports looked at three Ni-based alloy categories: low-Co alloys with a potential use close to the reactor core; high-temperature, high-strength alloys; and molten salt–compatible alloys. In the first category, alloy 718 was studied in 2023, and creep testing at 600°C and 650°C revealed that the alloy exhibited great creep strength after the appropriate annealing but had low ductility. Advanced characterization was recently conducted to highlight the presence of strengthening γ' and γ" precipitates after creep testing and to show that brittle phases at grain boundaries might explain the low ductility of LPBF 718 compared with wrought 718. For the high-temperature, high-strength alloys, previously purchased powders of alloys 617, 230, and 625 were used to assess the printability of these three solution-strengthened alloys. Hot cracking could not be suppressed for alloy 617 and 230, and it was shown that these cracks, which were elongated along the build direction (BD), had a drastic effect on the ductility of alloy 230 at room temperature when specimens were machined perpendicular to the BD. On the contrary, LPBF printing of crack-free alloy 625 was achieved using similar printing parameters, and the alloy looked like a promising candidate for various reactor technologies. The fabrication of alloy 282 by LPBF, a γ'-strengthened alloy with great creep strength up to 800°C, was performed in 2023, and x-ray computed tomography (XCT) scans of the alloy before and after creep testing at 750°C were carried out to assess the effect of flaws on the alloy’s creep behavior. Correlation between the flaws’ volume fraction, creep ductility, and creep lifetime could be established, and future work on LPBF 625 will take full advantage of in situ printing data and ex situ XCT scans to accelerate the alloy qualification. Finally, single track experiments were performed on the two alloys previously identified as good molten salt–resistant, Ni-based candidates: Hastelloy N and 244. Various laser parameters were considered, and cracking was not observed for either of the two alloys. Wrought 244 offers better creep strength and molten salt compatibility than alloy 625, and future work will aim to establish the alloy LPBF processing window.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Masses of Sunyaev-Zel’dovich galaxy clusters detected by the Atacama Cosmology Telescope: Stacked lensing measurements with Subaru HSC year 3 data

We present a stacked lensing analysis of 96 galaxy clusters selected by the thermal Sunyaev-Zel’dovich (SZ) effect in maps of the cosmic microwave background (CMB). We select foreground galaxy clusters with a 5 σ -level SZ threshold in CMB observations from the Atacama Cosmology Telescope, while we define background source galaxies for the lensing analysis with secure photometric redshift cuts in Year 3 data of the Subaru Hyper Suprime Cam survey. We detect the stacked lensing signal in the range of 0.1 < R [ h - 1 Mpc ] < 100 in each of three cluster redshift bins, 0.092 < z ≤ 0.445 , 0.445 < z ≤ 0.695 , and 0.695 < z ≤ 1.180 , with 32 galaxy clusters in each bin. The cumulative signal-to-noise ratios of the lensing signal are 14.6, 12.0, and 6.6, respectively. Using a halo-based forward model, we then constrain statistical relationships between the mass inferred from the SZ observation (i.e. SZ mass) and the total mass derived from our stacked lensing measurements. At the average SZ mass in the cluster sample ( 2.1 - 2.4 × 10 14 h - 1 M ⊙ ), our likelihood analysis shows that the average total mass differs from the SZ counterpart by a factor of 1.3 ± 0.2 , 1.6 ± 0.2 , and 1.6 ± 0.3 (68%) in the aforementioned redshift ranges, respectively. Our limits are consistent with previous lensing measurements, and we find that the cluster modeling choices can introduce a 1 σ -level difference in our parameter inferences.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

AGC-4 As-Run Uncertainty Analysis

The concept of measuring neutron flux (or fluence rate) with activation foils has existed since the late 1940s and is a well-used methodology. Activation foils are selected for their unique isotopic cross sections that create reaction products with desirable properties: relatively simple radioactive decay scheme, measurable quantities of gamma-rays or betas, and half-lives appropriate for the irradiation and decay durations of the experiment. The activation materials, deemed flux wires, fluence wires, dosimeters, or flux foils, are fabricated to have a mass appropriate for the irradiation as well so the measurement using a radiation detector following the irradiation is sufficient but not overwhelming in terms of total activity. Activation measurement results are expressed in terms of reaction rate, which can then be used to “adjust” the neutron spectrum. The Advanced Graphite Creep (AGC)-4 experiment contained 26 flux wire packages, each containing an iron and a niobium wire inside a vanadium capsule. For all stackup positions, the value of fast to thermal neutrons is higher than expected, but the total neutron fluence is near the predicted value of ~2 x 1022 n/cm2. As compared to the predicted neutron spectrum, there are four takeaways in the results as compared to the predicted ATR irradiation: 1) Additional fast (fission) neutrons present, 2) Spectrum hardening due to temperature, 3) Spectrum hardening due to container attenuation, 4) Total neutron fluence is close to predicted values. Since the neutron energy spectrum is a key parameter when attributing neutron damage in materials, the adjusted energy-dependent spectrum and the total neutron fluence results from the dosimeters can be incorporated for future calculations.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Engineering design of a kW-scale continuous reactor-heat exchanger for high temperature discharge of particle-based thermochemical energy storage

This study investigates the theoretical design parameters and thermal performance of a kW-scale continuous oxidation reactor for high temperature (~1000 °C) thermochemical energy storage (TCES) applications. The concept comprises a counter-current particle-based system that includes a reaction zone with a heat exchanger to extract the heat produced from the oxidation reaction. Both above and below the hot reactive volume are sensible heat recuperation zones to enable the feed and removal of particles and oxidizing gas near ambient temperature during steady state operation. Two operation types for the reaction zone are studied, a fluidized bed reactor (FBR) and a moving bed reactor (MBR). The results of the parametric analysis suggest that the MBR requires a smaller volume per kW of heat produced, achieving power densities in excess of 2500 kW/m3 compared to ~ 900 kW/m 3 in the FBR. Additionally, the MBR achieves between 0.71 and 0.99 oxidation conversions compared to between 0.23 and 0.38 conversions in the FBR with the same volumes and flowrates. However, the FBR has the potential to maintain a uniform reactor temperature which can produce heat transfer fluid (HTF) outlet temperatures as high as the reactor temperature, i.e., ~1000 °C, whereas the MBR produces variable reactor temperatures that can create overheating zones and low HTF outlet temperatures (< 800 °C) depending on the operating conditions selected. Future work should aim at understanding the coupled fluid dynamics, heat and mass transfer, and thermochemical reaction for any given combination of reactor volume and contacting patterns. Here, these studies should be complemented by experimental work on particle-gas TCES reactors.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Predicting Selective Laser Printing Print Quality of Polymer Powders through Melt Flow Index

Selective Laser Sintering (SLS) uses a precisely controlled laser to fuse polymer powder to build complex 3D shapes. While SLS covers a wide application space, the processing knowledge of polymer powder is limited, restricting the number of commercial powders available. This study serves to expand the processing knowledge of polypropylene and polyethylene in parallel with a “mature” SLS feedstock, nylon, through melt flow index (MFI) characterization. Differential Scanning Calorimetry (DSC) was used to explore the sintering window of the polymers. Polyethylene and polypropylene exhibited a relatively narrow sintering window between 4 – 5 °C, whereas the sintering window of nylon was much wider, between 23 – 24 °C. This suggests that the print quality between polyethylene and polypropylene would be similar; however, X-ray computed tomography revealed a higher volume of print defects, voids, and de lamination in polyethylene than in polypropylene. MFI analysis provided additional insight into the difference in print quality, as the MFI of polyethylene was 7.16 g/10 min, 9.95 g/10 min for polypropylene, and 17.23 g/10 min for nylon. MFI is inversely correlated to melt viscosity, and a low melt viscosity is desired for proper coalescing between the layers and particles. These results suggest that MFI is a promising tool, in conjunction with traditional thermal analysis, for screening candidate powder feedstocks for SLS and optimization of print parameters for novel powders.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Chemical Imaging of Atmospheric Biomass Burning Particles from North American Wildfires

The effects of biomass burning aerosols (BBA) on radiative forcing and cloud formation depend on chemical composition and the internal structures of individual particles within smoke plumes. To improve our understanding of the chemical and physical properties of BBA emitted at different times of the day and their evolution during atmospheric aging, we conducted a study as a part of the Fire Influence on Regional to Global Environments and Air Quality field campaign. Particle samples were collected onboard a research aircraft from smoke plumes from a wildfire in eastern Oregon during late afternoon and nighttime flights on August 28, 2019. A time-resolved aerosol collector was used to collect samples on substrates for offline spectromicroscopic imaging to investigate the single-particle characteristics of BBA particles. Approximately 20,400 individual particles from 10 selected samples were analyzed using computer-controlled scanning electron microscopy coupled with energy-dispersive X-ray microanalysis, revealing their elemental composition, morphology, and viscosity. Elemental microanalysis indicated that aged potassium is likely found in the form of K 2 SO 4 , KNO 3 , and possible K-organic salts. Further chemical speciation and carbon bonding mapping within individual particles were conducted using synchrotron-based scanning transmission X-ray microscopy (STXM) coupled with near edge X-ray absorption fine structure (NEXAFS) spectroscopy. Real-time, water-soluble light absorption measurements were acquired using a particle-into-liquid sampler instrument coupled to a liquid waveguide capillary cell and total organic analyzer. In the late afternoon samples, 65% of the total particle number population consisted entirely of organic components, compared to 46% in the nighttime particles. These differences were attributed to discrepancies in composition at the time of emission and to the daytime condensation and accumulation of photochemically formed secondary organic material on existing BBA particles, a process that halts at night. Microscopy images indicated that particle viscosity was lower in the nighttime particles (<10 1 Pa·s), likely due to increased relative humidity and a higher contribution from hygroscopic inorganic components. The chemical heterogeneity of individual particles was quantified using STXM-derived mixing state parameters. The nature of carbon bonding within individual particles was inferred from the extent of carbon sp 2 hybridization derived from NEXAFS spectra. Average percentages of sp 2 hybridization range between 40% and 60%, with no noticeable differences between late afternoon and nighttime flights. These findings were compared with the online optical properties of both late afternoon and nighttime smoke plumes, providing valuable insights into the complex relationship between chemical composition and optical properties of BBA particles at different times of the day.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Laser Powder Bed Fusion Additive Manufacture Nb1Zr Development

Next generation fission and fusion nuclear reactors require materials that can withstand operating temperatures greater than 500 °C, neutron irradiation doses of up to 200 displacements per atom (dpa), and potentially corrosive coolants such as the alkali liquid metals sodium, lithium, and NaK (Na33K eutectic alloy). Refractory alloys, such as Nb1Zr (Nb-1wt%Zr) and Molybdenum alloy TZM (Mo-0.5wt%Ti-0.08wt%Zr) have been traditionally considered viable candidates for advanced fission and fusion reactor concepts. However, it is relatively difficult to generate complex geometries of interest from these alloys using traditional manufacturing methods. In addition, there needs to be a concentrated effort to address refractory metal challenges at elevated temperature operation. In order to generate complex geometries of interest, modern manufacturing techniques are considered to increase the technological readiness level (TRL), cost-effectiveness, and schedule savings. This work focused on the continued development of laser powder bed fusion (L-PBF) additive manufacturing (AM) to improve both design flexibility, evaluate microstructure and properties, and ultimately accelerate the TRL and qualification of these processes and alloys for components to potentially be put into service. Niobium alloy Nb1Zr was identified through a down-selection process outlined in previous reports as a candidate to develop in L-PBF AM. Historically, Nb1Zr had been explored for high temperature fast spectrum fission reactors for both terrestrial and space applications. Molybdenum alloy TZM has also been considered for these reactor concepts due to exceptional high-temperature strength, creep resistance, and stability under irradiation. L-PBF AM of TZM has previously been investigated at LANL under the Microreactor program, NASA, ORNL, and in academia. However, due to the crack prone nature of TZM, L-PBF AM of TZM resulted in significant microcracking and additional development is required to pursue viable maturation. Other AM methods have been found to be more successful in printing TZM, and those alternatives approaches are discussed in this effort. The efforts detailed in this report focused on continued development of Nb1Zr through L-PBF and development of TZM via L-PBF and electron powder bed fusion (E-PBF). The objective of this work was to further the development of these AM techniques for the chosen refractory alloys, elucidating and addressing associated challenges through characterization of several demonstration builds. At LANL, Nb1Zr builds were completed using an EOS M290 and M400 machines, and a refractory alloy-dedicated L-PBF system, the Xact Metal XM200G, was installed. The XM200G primary purpose was to do the Nb1Zr parameter development process; however, due to difficulties associated with the machine installation and qualification process, it was decided to pivot development to the larger M400 and M290 machines. Although the supply of Nb1Zr powder was limited, it was sufficient to generate sub-scale metallographic specimens for the purpose of parameter development. This was first accomplished on the EOS M400 then the M290 due to machine schedule availability. Further development of TZM has been initiated at the University of Texas El Paso (UTEP) under contract with LANL to use both a heated build envelope L-PBF machine and E-PBF machine that have been found in the literature to mitigate microcracking. UTEP was provided with TZM powder and build plates to support parallel TZM parameter development across both machines. As part of the contract, UTEP will also be conducting microstructural characterization once optimized process parameters have been identified. The optimized process parameters for each machine will be used to generate a series of metallographic, mechanical, and surface finish specimens for subsequent characterization and testing. In the next section, we provide a detailed discussion of the methodology used for investigating the feasibility of leveraging these alloys for use in advanced reactor applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Cosmological Constraints from Combining Photometric Galaxy Surveys and Gravitational Wave Observatories

Spatial variations in survey properties due to selection effects generate substantial systematic errors in large-scale structure measurements in optical galaxy surveys on very large scales. On such scales, the statistical sensitivity of optical surveys is also limited by their finite sky coverage. By contrast, gravitational wave (GW) sources appear to be relatively free of these issues, provided the angular sensitivity of GW experiments can be accurately characterized. We quantify the expected cosmological information gain from combining the forecast LSST 3$\times$2pt analysis (combination of three 2-point correlations of galaxy density and weak lensing shear fields) with the large-scale auto-correlation of GW sources from proposed next-generation GW experiments. We find that in $\Lambda$CDM and $w$CDM models, there is no significant improvement in cosmological constraints from combining GW with LSST 3$\times$2pt over LSST alone, due to the large shot noise for the former; however, this combination does enable a $\sim6\%$ constraint on the linear galaxy bias of GW sources. More interestingly, the optical-GW data combination provides tight constraints on models with primordial non-Gaussianity (PNG), due to the predicted scale-dependent bias in PNG models on large scales. Assuming that the largest angular scales that LSST will probe are comparable to those in Stage III surveys ($\ell_{\rm min}\sim50$), the inclusion of next-generation GW measurements could improve constraints on the PNG parameter $f_{\rm NL}$ by up to a factor of $\simeq6.6$ compared to LSST alone, yielding $\sigma(f_{\rm NL})=8.5$. These results assume the expected capability of a network of Einstein Telescope-like GW observatories, with a detection rate of $10^6$ events/year. We investigate the sensitivity of our results to different assumptions about future GW detectors as well as different LSST analysis choices.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Development of large-scale, 3D Printed high temperature ceramic material

Through this collaborative effort, a new 3D printing platform for ceramics called laser-induced slip casting (LIS) was explored and developed for improving the processing and manufacture of silicon carbide (SiC), a high temperature ceramic material. This method prints layers of ceramic slips/slurries with subsequent selective-laser heating to dry each layer to build a 3D structure. The completed and dried part is then sintered. This manufacturing process is inherently lower cost than alternative ceramic printing methods such as binder jet technology or stereolithography when it comes to the feedstock material but is more expensive than robocasting or direct ink writing. However, it has the potential to make more controlled parts with less defects compared to robocasting. The largest cost is the heating source for the printer. With this technique, there is potential to make large ceramic parts in a near-net shape. Further, there is no known commercial manufacturing of 3D printed ceramics that creates a large range of different high-density ceramics at large scale. The goals and outcomes for the development of the new printing technology were: 1) assessing the technology with alumina by characterizing coupons, 2) printing and sintering of silicon carbide (SiC), and 3) characterization and properties testing of materials printed and a scale-up of SiC part(s). Through this collaborative project, it was sought to provide the best solution to achieving highly dense and near-net shaped ceramic parts at large scale and reduced cost. The goal was to produce high density sintered materials for applications in defense, energy generating systems, armor, and wear parts using 3D printing methods. Variables including powder particle sizes, dispersant molecular weights (MWs), binders, printing parameters, and post processing were explored as well as the characterization of the physical properties (add specifics here).

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

X-ray Computed Tomography Data of Dense Metallic Components

The data shared in here are X-ray computed tomography (XCT) scans of a hexagonal fuel nozzle in 3 sections with the Metrotom 800 system at the Manufacturing Demonstration Facility (MDF) at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. The data are used in the paper "Tomographic Sparse View Selection using the View Covariance Loss, by Lin et al. (doi:10.1109/TPAMI.2025.36000720), accepted to the international conference on computational imaging (ICCP 2025). Figures 4-7 in the paper describe the part/XCT scan. File name Descriptions: Bottom section: TCR- Single Channeled SRC L 2019-3-18 12-26-41.hdf5 Medium section: TCR- Single Channeled SRC M 2019-3-18 13-8-9.hdf5 Top section: TCR- Single Channeled SRC T 2019-3-18 13-45-39.hdf5 Each hdf5 file contains projection data, and all the relevant X-ray CT scan setting. The full list of included attributes: distance_unit: Units of all distances specified angle_unit : Units of the angles angles: Array of all angles used voxel_size_xy: Baseline recon (if any) has this voxel size in the in-plane direction voxel_size_z: Baseline recon (if any) has this voxel size in the cross-plane direction det_pixel_size_col: Size of the detector pixels in the column dimension det_pixel_size_row: Size of the detector pixels in the row dimension src_iso_dist: Source to iso-center distance iso_det_dist: Iso-center to detector distance det_angle: If the detector is rotated/tilted, this angle corresponds to that value det_row_offset: Center of rotation offset in the vertical direction det_col_offset: Center of rotation offset in the horizontal direction reconstruction: A baseline reconstruction stored as 3D array BHC params: Beam-hardening parameters - Van De Casteel Model - if it has been used to pre-process the projections We also provided a python script (hdf_io.py) that allows the user to read the relevant data from each hdf5 file.

Ziabari, Amir [Oak Ridge National Laboratory]↗

Systems Analysis of Biomass and Coal Co-firing Power Plants with Deep Carbon Capture Toward Net-zero Emissions

Achieving a net-zero emission economy in the United States requires integrating diverse low-carbon and negative-emission technologies into the existing fossil fuel-dominant power fleet. Potential technologies from the low-carbon portfolio include renewable power, fossil power with carbon capture and storage (CCS), bioenergy with CCS (BECCS), and direct air capture (DAC). Renewable power is a clean energy source but has to pair with costly battery storage to provide dispatchable electricity. Fossil power with CCS offers dispatchable electricity yet still relies on DAC to offset residual emissions, even when deploying deep CCS with more than 90% CO2 capture. Coal-biomass co-firing with CCS, a subset of BECCS, is a reliable energy production technology that can be retrofitted from existing electricity generation units (EGUs). Power plant retrofit maximizes the use of the current U.S. coal power fleet without the need for large-scale deployment of new renewable power, battery storage, or DAC. Retrofitting coal-biomass co-firing with deep CCS in EGUs is a promising option, but not a universal solution. Biomass co-firing at a power plant introduces economic challenges and indirectly poses pressure on land and water resources. Meanwhile, retrofitting deep CCS affects plant efficiency and raises electricity generation costs. Overall, the technical feasibility and economic viability of plant retrofits vary across EGUs, as they are contingent upon the regional availability of biomass, unit-specific characteristics, site-specific fuel supply costs, and adjacent CO2 storage potential. Government incentives like 45Q can improve the retrofit viability, though the impact requires further quantification. A comprehensive analysis at the unit level is essential to address the question regarding the fate of the U.S. coal-fired electricity generation fleet toward the net-zero emission goal. This study conducts a systematic techno-economic-environmental assessment of EGUs to identify the viability of biomass co-firing and deep CCS retrofits in the U.S. coal-fired power fleet. Specifically, it characterizes the techno-economic performance of deep carbon capture, estimates life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and conducts a fleet-level assessment on retrofit viability. The key objectives are (1) to estimate the unit-specific performance and retrofitted cost under various biomass co-firing levels and CO2 capture rates; (2) to determine the possibility of reaching net-zero emission at the fleet level; (3) to quantify the cumulative capacities that are suitable for plant retrofits under current and future biomass supply scenarios; and (4) to improve the understanding of policy impacts on such retrofits to help the power sector’s transition to a net-zero economy. Techno-economic Model of Deep Carbon Capture. This study develops the performance and economic models for Monoethanolamine-based post-combustion CO2 capture at 95–99% capture rates. The process is simulated in Aspen Plus, analyzing the performance of carbon capture technology by varying the plant sizes, solvent lean loading, CO2 concentrations, and flue gas inlet temperature. Based on the key inputs and output parameters of CO2 capture, a reduced-order performance model of deep carbon capture is formulated. In addition, an engineering-economic model integrating the performance metrics is developed to estimate the capital as well as operation and maintenance (O&M) costs. Capital cost estimations follow the framework of the Integrated Environmental Control Model (IECM) and incorporate data regressions from three technical reports by IECM, the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL), and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. The O&M cost estimation utilizes the actual inventory consumption rate and labor requirements. Both performance and cost models are embedded into IECM v13.0-beta, a fossil-fuel power plant modeling tool. Life Cycle Assessment of Power Plants. This study estimates the GHG emissions of power plants through life cycle assessment (LCA). The LCA scope includes fuel supply, combustion-based power generation, and CO2 transport and storage. The fuel-based life cycle module is designed following the framework of the NETL Unit Process Library and CO2U LCA Guidance Toolkit. The module is then incorporated into IECM v13.0-beta. The process-based LCA is applied to estimate the GHG emissions of coal and biomass supply, coal- and coal-biomass co-firing power plant operation, as well as CO2 pipeline transport and geographical sequestration. An uncertainty analysis is conducted to quantify the variability and uncertainty associated with the LCA using the Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) method. Fleet-level Assessment. This study evaluates the technical and economic feasibility of selected coal-fired EGUs, examines the role of tax credits in retrofit viability, and assesses the competitiveness of retrofitted units against other low-carbon options. Unit screening identifies EGUs for the study, focusing on new, efficient baseload units with air pollution controls. The power plant databases are then established to organize unit-specific information on performance and operating conditions from the relevant public databases. Biomass for co-firing retrofits is selected based on home and neighboring county availability, ensuring sustained operation with at least a 5% co-firing level. The CO2 storage site is determined by state-level storage potential, with ArcGIS Pro and NETL CO2 Saline Storage Cost Model used to identify the optimal balance between the nearest transport distances and affordable storage costs. The latest IECM v13.0-beta is then employed to configure and evaluate the eligible EGUs with or without the deployment of deep CCS and biomass co-firing. A supply curve is established to illustrate the cumulative installed capacity suitable for retrofits at different cost levels. A sensitivity analysis on tax credits for carbon sequestration is performed. Finally, a unit-level cost comparison is conducted among retrofitted plants, renewable power with battery storage, and abated fossil fuels with DAC. Expected Results. This study evaluates the technical, economic, and environmental metrics of each EGU across an array of CO2 capture rates and biomass co-firing level scenarios. Unit-level comparisons will identify critical factors influencing technical performance. The supply curves with and without tax incentives will provide insights into the impact of tax credits on biomass co-firing and CCS deployment. The cost comparisons with renewables and DAC-retrofit will assess the competitiveness of the retrofitted units. Life cycle emissions from each unit will be assessed to identify the scenarios under which net-zero emissions can be achieved. These analyses are expected to determine the total coal-fired capacity suitable for serving as a low-carbon energy source with or without tax incentives. The study results are novel in identifying optimal unit-specific strategies for producing carbon-neutral power, whether through retrofitting EGUs with deep CCS, biomass co-firing, DAC, or installing renewable power with battery. The findings will provide insight into nationwide efforts to ensure reliable, affordable, and low-carbon electricity. It also will inform investment decisions and policies in the deployment of deep carbon capture and negative emission technologies for a net-zero energy future.

Biomass Co-firing↗

Weak Lensing Mass Calibration of the ACT DR5 Galaxy Clusters with the DES Year 3 Weak Lensing Data

We use weak gravitational lensing measurements from Year 3 Dark Energy Survey data to calibrate the masses of 443 galaxy clusters selected via the Sunyaev-Zel'dovich effect from Atacama Cosmology Telescope Data Release 5 maps of the cosmic microwave background. We incorporate redshift and SZ measurements for individual clusters into a hierarchical model for the stacked lensing signals and perform Bayesian analyses to constrain the hydrostatic mass bias of the clusters. Our treatment of systematic uncertainties includes a prescription for measuring and accounting for the weak lensing boost factor, consideration of a miscentering effect, as well as marginalization over uncertainties in the source galaxy photometric redshift distributions and shear calibration. The resultant constraints on the normalization of the mass-observable relation have a precision of approximately 7%, with the mean WL halo mass of M $_{500c}$ = 5.4 × 10$^{14}$ M $_{⊙}$. We measure the bias between the true cluster mass and the mass estimated from the SZ signal based on an X-ray-calibrated scaling relation assuming hydrostatic equilibrium, to be 1 - b = 0.74$^{+0.06}$ $_{-0.05}$ over the full sample. When splitting the clusters into high (z = 0.43-0.70) and low (z = 0.15-0.43) redshift bins, we measure 1 - b = 0.58$^{+0.06}$ $_{-0.05}$ and 0.81$^{+0.08}$ $_{-0.06}$, respectively. When introducing additional freedom in redshift and mass to the hydrostatic bias model, we find that 1 - b decreases with redshift (with the power law of -1.8$^{+0.5}$ $_{-0.6}$, 99.95% confidence), consistent with findings from other recent studies, while we do not find any significant trend in mass. We also demonstrate that our result is robust against various systematics such as a scale cut, priors on baryonic and miscentering parameters, and degree of scatter in mass-observable relation. The weak-lensing mass calibration presented in this study will be a useful tool for using the ACT clusters as probes of astrophysics, and as a step towards using their abundance as a cosmological probe.

Shin, T. [Carnegie Mellon U.] (ORCID:0000000263895↗

Xanthos-Lake Dataset

The Xanthos-Lake v1.0 dataset provides the input data, trained machine-learning models, and simulation outputs needed to characterize lake water balance, snow and ice conditions, and mixing-layer temperature within the Xanthos global hydrological modeling framework. The dataset supports lake representation across a wide range of lake sizes and hydroclimatic conditions by combining xLSIM, a basin-specific machine-learning emulator of lake snow, ice, ice-cover fraction, and mixing-layer temperature, with the Xanthos-Lake water-balance model. The archive contains NetCDF datasets used to train and evaluate xLSIM, trained model weights, processed meteorological and lake-property inputs, and basin- and lake-category-specific simulation outputs. These materials are organized into four primary data groups, described below. Snowice_model_inputs: Contains the NetCDF input data used to train xLSIM. The xLSIM machine-learning framework uses three lake-based datasets. The meteorological forcing dataset provides monthly relative humidity, specific humidity, surface wind speed, maximum and minimum air temperature, downward longwave and shortwave radiation, snowfall, surface air pressure, and total precipitation. Lake surface area is included as an additional static predictor. The target-state dataset provides lake ice thickness, snow depth, snow cover, and lake mixing-layer temperature, while a companion lake-surface dataset provides the lake ice-cover fraction. Before training, ice thickness and snow depth are converted from meters to centimeters, mixing-layer temperature is converted from kelvin to degrees Celsius and constrained to nonnegative values, and ice-cover fraction is converted from a fraction to a percentage. The predictor variables are normalized using statistics calculated across the selected lakes and time steps. Snowice_model_outputs: Contains the NetCDF outputs generated by xLSIM. For each basin, xLSIM produces a file containing observed and predicted lake-state variables for the training, validation, and testing periods. The modeled variables include lake ice thickness, snow depth, snow cover, mixing-layer temperature, and lake ice-cover fraction. For basins without a sufficiently persistent snow-and-ice signal, the emulator predicts only mixing-layer temperature. The outputs also include training and validation loss histories, the selected model configuration, identifiers of the lakes used in training, and SHAP-based feature-importance information at the global, lake, and seasonal-regime levels. The trained machine-learning model weights are provided separately within the dataset archive. Together, these files support model evaluation and subsequent coupling with the Xanthos-Lake water-balance framework. XanthosLAKES: Contains the NetCDF input data used by the Xanthos-Lake framework. Monthly meteorological inputs include relative and specific humidity, downward shortwave and longwave radiation, mean, maximum, and minimum air temperature, wind speed, precipitation, snowfall, and surface air pressure. Static lake-property datasets provide lake identifiers, geographic locations, surface area, volume, mean depth, elevation, drainage area, fetch, outlet-routing information, and associated Xanthos grid-cell attributes. Separate bathymetric datasets provide the coefficients of the area–depth and volume–depth relationships for each aggregated lake unit. GLEV-based records provide observed lake surface area and evaporation data used to initialize lake states, define reference conditions, and calibrate and evaluate the model. Xanthos-Lake Outputs: Contains the basin- and lake-category-specific NetCDF outputs generated by Xanthos-Lake. Monthly variables include lake surface area, storage volume, outlet discharge, evaporation rate, evaporation volume, lake–groundwater exchange, lake inflow, ice thickness, snow depth, snow-cover fraction, ice-cover fraction, and mixing-layer temperature. The files also contain lake-specific calibration and validation statistics, including normalized root-mean-square error, mean absolute error, Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency, Kling–Gupta efficiency, and percent bias. Stored calibrated and derived parameters include the weir discharge coefficient, fractional freeboard, groundwater exchange coefficient, reference water level, corresponding reference surface area and storage volume, weir-width adjustment factor, and the fraction of routed inflow entering the lake. Basin identifiers, lake category, simulation period, calibration and validation periods, and parameter-schema information are retained as NetCDF metadata.

Abeshu, Guta [Pacific Northwest National Laborator↗

Field Validation of Thermoelectric Generation System at Holcim Cement Plant in Alpena, Michigan

Executive Summary Project Background The Industrial Technology Validation (ITV) program aims to identify and demonstrate the performance of new, emerging, and underutilized energy-saving technologies in the industrial sector to help inform decisions to help accelerate their commercialization and deployment, as well as to help make industries more competitive. This ITV demonstration evaluated a thermoelectric generation (TEG) technology at a cement plant, aiming to reduce energy demand in the cement industry. A median cement plant consumes 5.73 million British thermal units per ton of clinker production (resulting in 0.838 metric tons of carbon dioxide [CO₂] emissions per ton of clinker) (Boyd and Zhang 2011, EPA 2021), equivalent to approximately 6.9 trillion British thermal units (TBtu) per year in energy consumption at a cement plant producing 3,300 tons of clinker per day.¹ Collaborating with Holcim, Advanced Thermovoltaic Systems (ATS) developed and deployed a pilot-scale thermoelectric power system to efficiently capture and convert waste heat to electricity. The system leverages the Seebeck effect to convert temperature differences on two sides of semiconductor cartridges into electrical power (ScienceDirect, n.d.). This generation is realized with minimal moving parts compared to existing waste-heat-to-generation solutions and allows capture from heat sources with temperatures as low as 150°C. This project aimed to validate a scalable solution applicable for capturing medium-temperature waste heat, including ambient losses from other high-temperature processes, and high-temperature sources less suitable for other waste-heat-to-power solutions. By recovering this otherwise wasted heat, this project intends to validate improvements to overall process efficiency through reduction in purchased electricity, thereby reducing operational costs while enhancing resiliency and competitiveness. Description and Scope This study evaluated the performance of a TEG system from ATS as a solution to convert waste heat into useful power at a Holcim cement plant in Alpena, Michigan. This plant is a fully integrated cement plant that has been operating since 1907. The facility operates continuously (24/7/365) with approximately 250 employees and five long dry kilns, yielding a total production capacity of 7,852 tons of cement per day (EPA 2023). Currently, the Alpena plant uses waste heat boilers to convert waste heat from the exhaust of each kiln into steam, which drives steam turbine generators. The ATS TEG is being evaluated for its potential to supplement the steam turbines by capturing the remaining lower grade heat. This technology is also being considered for other Holcim plants where steam turbines are not a viable option. ATS installed a pilot-scale TEG unit with an array of 582 individual thermoelectric semiconductor cartridges, of which 573 were operational. The cartridges are sandwiched between 48 hot plates and 49 cold plates. Each cartridge is designed to generate 20 watts (W) of gross power at a hot-side temperature of 240°C and cold-side temperature of 20°C. As such, the total gross generation capacity of the installed system is 11.5 kilowatts (kW) at design conditions. The system configuration for the evaluation was designed to prioritize convenience of installation and minimize disruption to production at the site, while ensuring that the heat required can be obtained for evaluating the TEG system at various operational conditions. To accomplish this, a portion of the steam supplied to Alpena’s steam turbine generation system was diverted to be used as the heat source for the TEG system, while water was supplied to the cold side of the system from nearby Lake Huron. This configuration was designed for the evaluation of the pilot-scale system to assess the performance at different conditions. A commercial-scale system will likely vary from the pilot system depending on typical configurations, including both scale and application. Future commercial applications of the ATS system would involve integrating the system into the exhaust from kiln preheaters, clinker coolers, or radiant heat capture from kiln shells for the heat source. For the cold source, a range of cooling solutions can be considered, including a mechanical cooling system, depending on the location and the application. To increase the generation capacity for commercial applications, the technology provider is working toward developing a commercial-scale TEG system, which would combine multiple TEG units (each similar in design to the pilot system) together. The scope of this evaluation includes the pilot-scale TEG system and all impacted equipment including pumps, controllers, and power handling equipment. Study Objectives The evaluation's goal was to assess the potential of the ATS TEG system to generate useful electrical power by capturing waste heat from cement production kilns. The objectives of this study are to evaluate and verify the following claims made by ATS regarding the pilot-scale system installed at the Holcim Alpena plant. The following design parameters and claims are also outlined in Table ES- 1 and Table ES- 2: • Gross Power: The thermoelectric system converts heat into power to create gross power, the total measured power generated by the system. The 573 active cartridge pilot-scale system is expected to generate 11.5 kW of gross power at the designed hot-side temperature of 240°C and cold-side temperature of 20°C. Power production is dependent on the temperature difference between the heat source (ultimately from the waste heat) and cold temperature supply source. • Net Power: The net power is the total usable power provided to the site by the TEG system after deducting parasitic power loads from the gross generated power. Supplementary equipment is required to operate the TEG system including pumps, controllers, and, in certain anticipated applications, mechanical cooling, which introduce parasitic loads to system operation. After deducting the parasitic loads from the gross power generation, ATS anticipates achieving a net power generation of 7.5 kW from the pilot-scale system. • Thermal Efficiency: The thermal efficiency is the percent of the total heat transferred to the TEG system that is converted to gross power. Historically, TEGs have a thermal efficiency of 2%–5% (DOE 2008). Prior industrial-scale TEG systems, such as the E1 TEG offered by Alphabet Energy, operated at an efficiency of 2.5% (Lamonica, 2014). ATS anticipates achieving an average efficiency of 4.8% or higher in converting heat energy to usable electricity. • Cartridge Performance: The TEG system comprises 573 active individual semiconductor cartridges, each of which generates a portion of the total power. Cartridge optimization and selection is an important design consideration for potential future TEG system design performance. Therefore, understanding the distribution of gross power and efficiency within the pilot system is vital to understanding what is achievable. At a design hot-side temperature of 240°C and cold-side temperature of 20°C, ATS anticipates a cartridge performance of 20 W of gross power per cartridge at an efficiency of 4.8% per cartridge. In addition to evaluating the claimed performance of the TEG pilot-scale unit, the study estimated the potential annual impacts of a scaled-up commercial system used to capture kiln waste heat over annual operations. The evaluation estimated the gross and net annual electric generation achievable by capturing heat from the two proposed tap-in points: the kiln exhaust and the clinker cooler exhaust; see Section 2.1 for details. Two use cases were examined: • Holcim Alpena: The Holcim Alpena site consists of long dry kilns with superheater boilers, which differs from the rest of Holcim’s cement plant portfolio and results in lower waste heat temperatures. The study estimates gross and net annual generation using the superheater boiler exhaust and clinker cooler exhaust, based on 2023 operational data. • Typical Installation: Common cement plants have preheater kilns with higher exhaust temperatures than Holcim Alpena across a range of production rates. The study estimates gross and net annual generation using the preheater exhaust and clinker cooler exhaust, with a sensitivity analysis to account for the typical range of preheater exhaust temperatures, clinker cooler exhaust temperatures, and clinker production rates. Methodology The evaluation methodology followed a measurement and verification (M&V) strategy based on the International Performance Measurement and Verification Protocol Option B through comprehensive measurements and analyses of the affected systems. Evaluation data was collected from March 9 to March 11, 2024, the test period of the pilot TEG system. During the test period, in coordination with the ITV team, the ATS team adjusted system operations to capture the range of variability expected for each of the variables pertinent to performance of the system. The methodology consisted of two parts: evaluating the performance of the pilot unit's TEG system and estimating the annual TEG impact in terms of gross and net power based on a given waste heat profile. First, the evaluation of the thermoelectric generation performance of the pilot unit relative to the claims was performed by analyzing the collected test data. Gross power of the pilot TEG system was directly measured. Net power was determined by deducting the measured parasitic power from the gross power. The gross power generation was compared to heat transferred to the system by the working fluid (which was heated by steam generated from the kiln waste heat) to calculate the thermal efficiency achieved by the system. Performance of individual semiconductor cartridges within the pilot array was also assessed in terms of measured gross cartridge power and calculated cartridge thermal efficiency. The second part of the evaluation estimated the annual TEG impacts in terms of gross power and net power (calculated from the difference between gross power and parasitic power). This analysis comprised development of mathematical regression models for gross power and parasitic power, with assessment of each model’s goodness-of-fit characteristics to ensure satisfaction of statistical requirements. The models predicted the gross power generation, the parasitic load based on the temperature difference between the hot working fluid and the cold-side fluid (cold water from Lake Huron) entering the system, the volumetric flow rate of the cold-side fluid at the inlet, and the volumetric flow rate of the hot working fluid at the inlet. The annual impact analysis considered a theoretical commercial-scale system sized to capture the available waste heat at a cement plant, consisting of linked pilot-scale units that receive heat from a theoretical gas-to-working-fluid heat exchanger. To estimate annual impacts at the Alpena plant, the gross power and parasitic power regression models were applied to the arrays in the theoretical commercial-scale system. The heat supplied to the unit was calculated based on the kiln run time, annual production, kiln exhaust waste heat, and clinker cooler waste heat derived from 2023 Holcim Alpena kiln operational data. Net power impacts were calculated by deducting the resulting parasitic power from the estimated gross power. Inputs for the model were generated from a combination of hourly data, assumed design considerations for TEG system scale-up from the pilot-scale unit, and assumptions regarding TEG system operations. This analysis was then used as the basis for estimating annual impacts of typical TEG installation at cement plants, by applying sensitivity analyses to key kiln operational characteristics including kiln preheater exhaust temperatures, cooler clinker exhaust temperatures, and plant daily production rates across a range of expected values. Project Results/Findings Table ES- 2 and Table ES- 2 provide a summary of the operating conditions and evaluation results compared to the stated claims from the technology provider. Key takeaways include: • Gross Power: The peak gross power achieved during the testing period was 10.0 kW, compared to the 11.5 kW expected for 573 active cartridges. The claimed gross power was associated with a target hot side of 240°C; however, the system only received a maximum hot-side mean plate temperature of 212°C during the testing period. • Net Power: The pilot-scale unit exceeded the claims for net power, achieving a peak of 7.7 kW net compared to a claim of 7.5 kW. One factor contributing to the higher achieved net power is the relatively high water pressure available through Lake Huron. The pilot TEG system did not require cold-side pumps during the test, whereas most installations would. This reduced the parasitic loads on the system, ultimately contributing to higher net power relative to the gross power. • Thermal Efficiency: The pilot-scale unit outperformed the claimed efficiency, achieving a peak system efficiency of 5.0% thermal efficiency compared to the stated 4.8%. • Cartridge Performance: To compare cartridge performance against claims, the study focused on the third day of testing, which aimed for conditions closest to the design specifications, with a hot side of 240°C and cold-side exit temperature of 6.4°–30°C. On this day, the mean gross power observed in the cartridges within the TEG array was 18.1 W/cartridge, and the peak performance was 34.7 W/cartridge. The estimated mean cartridge efficiency was 5.2%, and the estimated efficiency at peak gross cartridge power was 10%. The regression models developed for gross power generation and parasitic loads were used to estimate the generation impact for given heat input to the TEG from the working fluid (captured from the waste heat) and from the cold loop (Lake Huron) on an hourly basis for a year of operation. Based on this analysis, installation of a commercial-scale TEG system at the Holcim cement plant in Alpena, Michigan, with a waste heat exchanger of 0.85 effectiveness, would generate up to 391 kW of net power, translating to between 920,000 and 1,800,000 kilowatt-hours (kWh) in net electricity per year. Based on typical grid emissions for Alpena, this would avoid estimated net emissions by 752 metric tons of CO₂ annually.² The sensitivity analysis estimated that typical TEG system installations at cement plants could generate an average of 56–1,040 kW of net power, or between 488,000 and 9,110,000 kWh of net energy. This generation potential is most significantly affected by plant production rates and also influenced by preheater and clinker cooler exhaust temperatures. Applying the national average emission rate, typical commercial-scale installations at Holcim plants are projected to avoid between 182 and 3,401 metric tons of CO₂ annually per site. Table ES- 3 shows a summary of the estimated annual impacts.³ While parasitic loads are significant and vary by application, this analysis assumed the use of heating loop pumps and access to Lake Huron as a cold sink. This setup assumed no need for cooling loop pumps due to the available water pressure at the test site. Applications that require cooling towers or additional equipment are likely to experience higher parasitic loads. Therefore, the study’s estimates are most applicable to scenarios with similar parasitic load configurations—namely, access to a high-pressure cold sink. Applicability to other locations may be limited, as differing conditions could necessitate additional pumps and cooling systems, potentially impacting performance significantly.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

MPEX AI Digital Twins

All magnetically confined plasma fusion power plant concepts (Tokamak, Spherical Tokamak, Stellarator, Mirror, ...) must exhaust the heat and plasma from the core confinement region to the material walls. The primary channel for this exhaust is through a plasma divertor which directs plasma along open magnetic field lines to a material target. The Material Plasma Exposure eXperiment (MPEX) illustrated in Figure 1, is a high-power, steady-state linear plasma device designed to produce the plasma material interaction (PMI) conditions of the divertor of future magnetic confinement fusion power plants: energy flux 20MW/m 2 , ion fluence 1031/m 2 , pulse duration 106 sec. These goals of plasma exposure in MPEX are well beyond those achieved in magnetic fusion experimental devices. Successfully achieving these high power steady state conditions for long pulses requires operational control of the heating and particle sources and the plasma flux to the walls and target. The MPEX AI Hot Spot Controller, proposed in this project, will help achieve the operational milestones of MPEX. The MPEX device will begin commissioning at the end of FY26. A smaller proto-MPEX was operated for 14,666 plasma discharges and will resume operation in September of 2025 as proto-MPEX-lite, with reduced capability, to test a new window for the Helicon plasma source. The proto-MPEX data has undergone surrogate modeling with machine learning methods (R. Archibald, 2022 IEEE International Conference on Big Data). This proto-MPEX data will be used to begin development of the AI digital twins described in this white paper. The scientific mission of MPEX is to qualify materials of different composition for use in the high energy and plasma flux conditions of a fusion power plant. The materials exposed in MPEX will in some cases be exposed to high neutron fluxes at other ORNL facilities to measure the changes to their PMI properties. The targets exposed in MPEX will be transported under vacuum to a Surface Analysis Station (SAS). The SAS will be equipped with the following diagnostics: Focused Ion Beam (FIB) for trench milling, 100-400 angstrom resolution scanning electron microscope (SEM), surface mapping x-ray spectrometer, high resolution camera, and a future upgrade to a laser induced breakdown spectroscopy quadruple mass spectrometer (LIBS-QMS). The MPEX experiments will generate diverse pre- and post-exposure measurement data of detailed material properties down to the crystal grain level in 3D for post-exposure assessment of PMI damage (e.g. cracking, melting, erosion and redeposition of the material). Physics models for the PMI, and how the material composition and manufacturing impact its performance under high energy plasma exposure, need to be validated with MPEX data to guide the selection of new candidate materials. Our vision for the MPEX AI Digital Twins project is to supply experimental and physics model simulation data to train Artificial Intelligence (AI) models for data processing, analysis, operational control, PMI and materials simulation to maximize the scientific output of the MPEX device. Ultimately, an AI digital twin of MPEX material assessment metrics for tested and synthetic material types with simulated PMI will be trained by the AI Modeling Teams on the experimental and physics simulation data submitted to the American Science Cloud by this project. A purely empirical search for the best material is inefficient given the finite number of samples that can be tested on MPEX. In order to expand the material properties database for training the MPEX Material Assessment AI Digital Twin, and to gain physics understanding of the PMI processes, physics models of the material properties and PMI processes are required. The physics simulations provide detailed simulation data, like impact angles for plasma ions, sputtering yields, transport of the ionized sputtered target material in the plasma, and redeposition locations. This simulation data expands the measurement data for deeper physics understanding. The experimental data is essential to validate the PMI and material structure simulation models. The validated models can then be used to generate new simulation data of MPEX material assessments for synthetic material compositions that have not been exposed in MPEX. These predictive simulations, plus the whole experimental dataset, will be used to train the MPEX Material Assessment AI Digital Twin allowing a rapid generative AI search for new materials with reduced PMI damage by interpolating the domain of the training set. These new optimum materials can be simulated with the physics codes and/or tested in MPEX. The ability of AI neural networks to interpolate multi-dimensional parameter spaces and generate virtual data is exploited for a more efficient search for optimum materials. The advent of the Transformational AI Models Consortium (TAIMC) is an opportunity to engage with state of the art private and public AI developers to achieve the goals of the AI digital twins and AI accelerated physics models proposed in this project. Our partners at ORNL from the Advance Scientific Computing Research (ASCR) organization will collaborate in accelerating the integrated plasma material interaction simulation framework. This simulation framework will provide a platform for generating simulation data across a range of physical fidelities, including hybrid methods that produce multi-fidelity results. This data will be leveraged for AI model development, both for generation of surrogates and the automation of simulation campaigns. A part of the research below will include collaborative efforts with the TAIMC to (i) adapt data storage approaches to ensure AI-readiness, (ii) provide a protypical exemplar to inform and exercise constructed workflows, and (iii) generate and share data, using the TAIMC unified AI data standard, for foundational models that will be trained from multiple sources across the DOE complex. We will also collaborate with the TAIMC, as well as the planned AI modeling teams, to develop approaches for reducing the cost of data generation. These include tailored multi-fidelity approaches as well as fine-tuning strategies to augment general, large-scale foundational models.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

CERF: IM3 Projected Western US Power Plant Locations

Overview The Capacity Expansion Regional Feasibility (CERF) model is an open-source geospatial python package that provides new power plant locations at a 1km resolution. The model ingests U.S. state or regional-scale electricity system capacity expansion plans, such as those produced by the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM-USA), and identifies feasible, site-specific locations for individual new power plants (renewable and non-renewable). CERF combines high-resolution geospatial suitability analyses with an economic algorithm that selects individual plant siting locations based on grid interconnection costs and the locational marginal value of new generation. The model incorporates a wide range of dynamic constraints and opportunities, such as protected lands, population density, existing infrastructure, and water availability. This dataset provides CERF power plant siting results for IM3 Phase 2 simulations across eight different scenarios for the Western US through 2055. The scenarios include combinations of two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP3 and SSP5) with four high-resolution climate projections specific to the United States (see, https://tgw-data.msdlive.org/). These climate projections include "hotter" and "cooler" variants for two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The resulting eight simulations are: rcp45cooler_ssp3 rcp45cooler_ssp5 rcp45hotter_ssp3 rcp45hotter_ssp5 rcp85cooler_ssp3 rcp85cooler_ssp5 rcp85hotter_ssp3 rcp85hotter_ssp5 CERF siting results in this dataset correspond to capacity expansion plans in the GCAM-USA IM3 Phase 2 simulation data and are available for each of the above scenarios. Data Details Temporal Range: 2015-2055 in 5-year timesteps. Note that 2015 is the experiment base year and 2020 and beyond represent model simulation years. Spatial Range: Plant locations are provided for the eleven states in the Western US including Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, New Mexico, Nevada, Oregon, Utah, Washington, and Wyoming. Spatial Resolution: 1 km-squared, provided in x and y coordinates Geospatial Projection: Albers Equal Area Conic (ESRI:102003) File Type: csv The dataset contains subdirectories for each of the eight scenarios described in the overview. Each scenario folder contains two subfolders with the following information: 1. Power Plant Data This directory contains a single .csv file of power plant locations for both pre-existing (non-CERF sited plants in operation in 2015) and new (CERF-sited) power plants across the temporal range along with additional CERF model output parameters for CERF-sited plants. Plant with a siting year earlier than 2020 correspond to facilities that are operational leading into the first timestep CERF simulation. For a more detailed description of CERF model output parameters, see the CERF model documentation. Note that the cerf_plant_id parameter is unique within each scenario file but not across scenario files. Parameter Descriptions scenario - Name of scenario cerf_plant_id - Unique siting identifier cerf_sited - If True, indicates that plant was sited by CERF model. If False, indicates pre-existing facility region_name - Name of region (state) tech_id - Technology ID tech_name - Full generation technology name inclusive of cooling type (if applicable) and additional characteristics tech_simple - Simplified generation technology type unit_size_mw - Power plant unit size (MW) xcoord - X coordinate in the default CRS (meters) ycoord - Y coordinate in the default CRS (meters) index - Index position in the flattend 2D array buffer_in_km - Exclusion buffer around site (km) sited_year - Year of siting retirement_year - Year of retirement lmp_zone - Locational marginal price (LMP) zone ID locational_marginal_price_usd_per_mwh - Locational marginal price ($/MWh) generation_mwh_per_year - Generation output (MWh/yr) operating_cost_usd_per_year - Cost of plant operations ($/yr) net_operational_value - Net operational value based on LMP and and operating costs ($/yr) interconnection_cost - Cost of interconnection for transmission & gas pipeline (if applicable) net_locational_cost -- Difference of interconnection cost and operating value ($/yr) capacity_factor_fraction - Capacity factor (fraction) carbon_capture_rate_fraction - Carbon capture rate (fraction) fuel_co2_content_tons_per_btu - Fuel CO2 content (tons/Btu) fuel_price_usd_per_mmbtu - Fuel price ($/MMBtu) fuel_price_esc_rate_fraction - Fuel price escalation rate (fraction) heat_rate_btu_per_kWh - Heat rate (Btu/kWh) lifetime_yrs - Technology lifetime for annuity (years) operational_life_yrs - Operational lifetime for retirement (years) variable_om_usd_per_mwh - Variable operation and maintenance costs of yearly capacity use ($/MWh) variable_om_esc_rate_fraction - Variable operation and maintenance costs escalation rate (fraction) carbon_tax_usd_per_ton - Carbon tax ($/ton) carbon_tax_esc_rate_fraction - Carbon tax escalation rate (fraction) 2. Storage Data This directory contains information on new and pre-existing energy storage facilities operational in each timestep along with various storage operational parameters. The 2015 timestep provides pre-existing energy storage data and corresponds with facilities that are operational leading into the first model simulation timestep. Note that coordinates in the storage files correspond to the interconnection point on the grid (substation location), not individual energy storage locations. Energy storage is added in a cumulative process at each given interconnection point. That is, each individual file provides the total operational storage capacity interconnected to the specified substation for the given timestep, inclusive of previously installed storage at that location and new storage installed in that timestep at that location. Parameters scenario - Name of scenario timestep - Simulation timestep name - Unique storage identifier s_typ - Type of energy storage technology (battery or pumped storage hydro) s_node - Node ID of interconnecting substation xcoord - X coordinate in the default CRS (meters) ycoord - Y coordinate in the default CRS (meters) charge_rate - Maximum charge rate (power capacity) of storage system (MW) discharge_rate - Maximum discharge rate (power capacity) of storage system (MW) duration - Duration of storage system (hours) max_SoC - Allowed maximum state of charge (energy capacity) of storage system (MWh) min_SoC -Allowed minimum state of charge (energy capacity) of storage system (MWh) charge_eff - Efficiency of charge (fraction between 0 and 1) discharge_eff - Efficiency of discharge (fraction between 0 and 1) Acknowledgment IM3 is a multi-institutional effort led by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and supported by the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Science as part of research in MultiSector Dynamics, Earth and Environmental Systems Modeling Program.

CERF↗