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NASA NTRS2018

Comparisons of Two Spatial Implementations of a Crop Model Using Remotely Sensed Observations over Southeastern United States

Global food security is one of the most pressing issues of the current century, particularly for developing nations. Agricultural simulation models can be a key component in testing new technologies, seeds and cultivars etc. However, inaccurate input information, model related errors and the mode of implementation can also add to model uncertainties. In this study, the crop model is implemented in two separate fashions: a)gridded (GriDSSAT model) and b) using random spatial ensembles (RHEAS model). This is done in the Southeastern US to evaluate and understand the modelperformance over a region data availabilities. Once the model performance is assessed, multiple satellite based earth observation parameters such as soil moisture, vegetation index etc. can be assimilated into crop models to reduce input and model related uncertainties particularly in data limited regions. In this study, the National Agricultural Statistical Services (NASS) reported yield data at county levels are used for comparison andvalidation purposes. The GriDSSAT model estimation of corn yields in comparison with the reported NASS yields showed an overall RMSD of nearly 3720 (kg/ha) whereas RMSD for the RHEAS model implementation was 3550 (kg/ha). Overall the GriDSSAT model had negative bias of nearly 2400 kg/ha (except for 2013) while RHEAS had a slight positive bias of 400 kg/ha (approx.).

SERVIR↗

NASA NTRS2013

Nine-Year Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe (WMAP) Observations: Final Maps and Results

We present the final nine-year maps and basic results from the Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe (WMAP) mission. The full nine-year analysis of the time-ordered data provides updated characterizations and calibrations of the experiment. We also provide new nine-year full sky temperature maps that were processed to reduce the asymmetry of the effective beams. Temperature and polarization sky maps are examined to separate cosmic microwave background (CMB) anisotropy from foreground emission, and both types of signals are analyzed in detail.We provide new point source catalogs as well as new diffuse and point source foreground masks. An updated template-removal process is used for cosmological analysis; new foreground fits are performed, and new foreground reduced are presented.We nowimplement an optimal C(exp -1)1 weighting to compute the temperature angular power spectrum. The WMAP mission has resulted in a highly constrained Lambda-CDM cosmological model with precise and accurate parameters in agreement with a host of other cosmological measurements. When WMAP data are combined with finer scale CMB, baryon acoustic oscillation, and Hubble constant measurements, we find that big bang nucleosynthesis is well supported and there is no compelling evidence for a non-standard number of neutrino species (N(sub eff) = 3.84 +/- 0.40). The model fit also implies that the age of the universe is (sub 0) = 13.772 +/- 0.059 Gyr, and the fit Hubble constant is H(sub 0) = 69.32 +/- 0.80 km/s/ Mpc. Inflation is also supported: the fluctuations are adiabatic, with Gaussian random phases; the detection of a deviation of the scalar spectral index from unity, reported earlier by the WMAP team, now has high statistical significance (n(sub s) = 0.9608+/-0.0080); and the universe is close to flat/Euclidean (Omega = −0.0027+0.0039/−0.0038). Overall, the WMAP mission has resulted in a reduction of the cosmological parameter volume by a factor of 68,000 for the standard six-parameter Lambda-CDM model, based on CMB data alone. For a model including tensors, the allowed seven-parameter volume has been reduced by a factor 117,000. Other cosmological observations are in accord with the CMB predictions, and the combined data reduces the cosmological parameter volume even further.With no significant anomalies and an adequate goodness of fit, the inflationary flat Lambda-CDM model and its precise and accurate parameters rooted in WMAP data stands as the standard model of cosmology.

dark matter↗

NASA NTRS1993

Relationship of attenuation in a vegetation canopy to physical parameters of the canopy

A discrete scatter model is employed to compute the radiometric response (i.e. emissivity) of a layer of vegetation over a homogeneous ground. This was done to gain insight into empirical formulas for the emissivity which have recently appeared in the literature and which indicate that the attenuation through the canopy is proportional to the water content of the vegetation and inversely proportional to wavelength raised to a power around unity. The analytical result assumes that the vegetation can be modeled by a sparse layer of discrete, randomly oriented particles (leaves, stalks, etc.). The attenuation is given by the effective wave number of the layer obtained from the solution for the mean wave using the effective field approximation. By using the Ulaby-El Rayes formula to relate the dielectric constant of the vegetation to its water content, it can be shown that the attenuation is proportional to water content. The analytical form offers insight into the dependence of the empirical parameters on other variables of the canopy, including plant geometry (i.e. shape and orientation of the leaves and stalks of which the vegetation is comprised), frequency of the measurement and even the physical temperature of the vegetation. Solutions are presented for some special cases including layers consisting of cylinders (stalks) and disks (leaves).

Karam, M. A.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Toward Accelerating Discovery via Physics-Driven and Interactive Multifidelity Bayesian Optimization

Both computational and experimental material discovery bring forth the challenge of exploring multidimensional and often nondifferentiable parameter spaces, such as phase diagrams of Hamiltonians with multiple interactions, composition spaces of combinatorial libraries, processing spaces, and molecular embedding spaces. Often these systems are expensive or time consuming to evaluate a single instance, and hence classical approaches based on exhaustive grid or random search are too data intensive. This resulted in strong interest toward active learning methods such as Bayesian optimization (BO) where the adaptive exploration occurs based on human learning (discovery) objective. However, classical BO is based on a predefined optimization target, and policies balancing exploration and exploitation are purely data driven. In practical settings, the domain expert can pose prior knowledge of the system in the form of partially known physics laws and exploration policies often vary during the experiment. Here, we propose an interactive workflow building on multifidelity BO (MFBO), starting with classical (data-driven) MFBO, then expand to a proposed structured (physics-driven) structured MFBO (sMFBO), and finally extend it to allow human-in-the-loop interactive interactive MFBO (iMFBO) workflows for adaptive and domain expert aligned exploration. These approaches are demonstrated over highly nonsmooth multifidelity simulation data generated from an Ising model, considering spin–spin interaction as parameter space, lattice sizes as fidelity spaces, and the objective as maximizing heat capacity. Detailed analysis and comparison show the impact of physics knowledge injection and real-time human decisions for improved exploration with increased alignment to ground truth. Here, the associated notebooks allow to reproduce the reported analyses and apply them to other systems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS2020

JWST Noise Floor. I. Random Error Sources in JWST NIRCam Time Series

James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) transmission and emission spectra will provide invaluable glimpses of transiting exoplanet atmospheres, including possible biosignatures. This promising science from JWST, however, will require exquisite precision and understanding of systematic errors that can impact the time series of planets crossing in front of and behind their host stars. Here, we provide estimates of the random noise sources affecting JWST Near-Infrared Camera (NIRCam) time-series data on the integration-to-integration level. We find that 1/ f noise can limit the precision of grism time series for two groups (230–1000 ppm depending on the extraction method and extraction parameters) but will average down like the square root of N frames/reads. The current NIRCam grism time-series mode is especially affected by 1/ f noise because its GRISMR dispersion direction is parallel to the detector fast-read direction, but could be alleviated in the GRISMC direction. Care should be taken to include as many frames as possible per visit to reduce this 1/ f noise source: thus, we recommend the smallest detector subarray sizes one can tolerate, four output channels, and readout modes that minimize the number of skipped frames (RAPID or BRIGHT2). We also describe a covariance-weighting scheme that can significantly lower the contributions from 1/ f noise as compared to sum extraction. We evaluate the noise introduced by preamplifier offsets, random telegraph noise, and high dark current resistor capacitor (RC) pixels and find that these are correctable below 10 ppm once background subtraction and pixel masking are performed. We explore systematic error sources in a companion paper.

Exoplanet atmospheres↗

NASA NTRS1994

Correlation of finite element free vibration predictions using random vibration test data

Finite element analysis is regularly used during the engineering cycle of mechanical systems to predict the response to static, thermal, and dynamic loads. The finite element model (FEM) used to represent the system is often correlated with physical test results to determine the validity of analytical results provided. Results from dynamic testing provide one means for performing this correlation. One of the most common methods of measuring accuracy is by classical modal testing, whereby vibratory mode shapes are compared to mode shapes provided by finite element analysis. The degree of correlation between the test and analytical mode shapes can be shown mathematically using the cross orthogonality check. A great deal of time and effort can be exhausted in generating the set of test acquired mode shapes needed for the cross orthogonality check. In most situations response data from vibration tests are digitally processed to generate the mode shapes from a combination of modal parameters, forcing functions, and recorded response data. An alternate method is proposed in which the same correlation of analytical and test acquired mode shapes can be achieved without conducting the modal survey. Instead a procedure is detailed in which a minimum of test information, specifically the acceleration response data from a random vibration test, is used to generate a set of equivalent local accelerations to be applied to the reduced analytical model at discrete points corresponding to the test measurement locations. The static solution of the analytical model then produces a set of deformations that once normalized can be used to represent the test acquired mode shapes in the cross orthogonality relation. The method proposed has been shown to provide accurate results for both a simple analytical model as well as a complex space flight structure.

Chambers, Jeffrey A.↗

NASA NTRS1995

A two-year program of aerobics and weight training enhances bone mineral density of young women

Previous research suggests that physical activity may have a beneficial effect on bone mineral density (BMD) in women. This relationship was explored in a 2-year, randomized, intervention trial investigating the efficacy of exercise and calcium supplementation on increasing peak bone mass in young women. One hundred and twenty-seven subjects (ages of 20-35 years) were randomly assigned either to an exercise program that contained both aerobics and weight training components or to a stretching program. Calcium supplementation (up to 1500 mg/day including dietary intake) or placebo was given in a double-blinded design to all subjects. Spinal trabecular BMD was determined using quantitative computed tomography (QCT). Spinal integral, femoral neck, and trochanteric BMD were measured by dual X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) and calcaneal BMD by single photon absorptiometry (SPA). Fitness variables included maximal aerobic capacity (VO2max), and isokinetic muscle performance of the trunk and thigh. Measurements were made at baseline, 1 year, and 2 years. Sixty-three subjects (32 exercise, 31 stretching) completed the study, and all the measured bone parameters indicated a positive influence of the exercise intervention. There were significant positive differences in BMD between the exercise and stretching groups for spinal trabecular (2.5%), femoral neck (2.4%), femoral trochanteric (2.3%), and calcaneal (6.4%) measurements. The exercise group demonstrated a significant gain in BMD for spinal integral (1.3 +/- 2.8%, p < 0.02), femoral trochanteric (2.6 +/- 6.1%, p < 0.05), and calcaneal (5.6 +/- 5.1, p < 0.01) measurements. In contrast to exercise, the calcium intervention had no positive effect on any of the bone parameters. In regard to fitness parameters, the exercise group completed the study with significant gains in VO2max and isokinetic (peak torque) values for the knee flexion and extension and trunk extension. This study indicates that over a 2-year period, a combined regimen of aerobics and weight training has beneficial effects on BMD and fitness parameters in young women. However, the addition of daily calcium supplementation does not add significant benefit to the intervention.

Randomized Controlled Trial↗

DOE OSTI2025

Machine learning of 27Al NMR electric field gradient tensors for crystalline structures from DFT

NMR crystallography has emerged as a promising technique for the determination and refinement of atomic coordinates in crystal structures. The crystal structure of compounds containing quadrupolar nuclei, such as 27Al, can be improved by directly comparing solid-state NMR measurements to DFT computations of the electric field gradient (EFG) tensor. The non-negligible computational cost of these first-principles calculations limits the applicability of this method to all but the most well-defined structures. We developed a fast, low-cost machine learning model to predict EFG parameters based on local structural motifs and elemental parameters. We computed 8081 EFG tensors from 1681 27Al crystalline solids using DFT and benchmarked them against 105 experimentally measured 27Al sites. Surprisingly, simple local geometric features dominate the predictive performance of the resulting random-forest model, yielding an R2 value of 0.98 and an RMSE of 0.61 MHz for CQ, the quadrupolar coupling constant. This model accuracy should enable pre-refining future structural assignments before finally validating with first-principles calculations. Such a catalogue of 27Al NMR tensors can serve as a tool for researchers assigning complex NMR spectra influenced by the nuclear electric quadrupole interaction.

Sun, He↗

NASA NTRS1975

A note on the consistency of maximum likelihood estimates for finite families of stochastic processes

The note considers families of stochastic processes indexed by a finite number of alternative parameter values. For general classes of stochastic processes, it is shown that maximum-likelihood estimates converge almost surely to the correct parameter value. This is established by use of a submartingale property of the sequence of maximized-likelihood ratios together with a technique first employed by Wald (1949) in the case of independent identically distributed random variables.

Caines, P. E.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Fracture mechanics concepts in reliability analysis of monolithic ceramics

Basic design concepts for high-performance, monolithic ceramic structural components are addressed. The design of brittle ceramics differs from that of ductile metals because of the inability of ceramic materials to redistribute high local stresses caused by inherent flaws. Random flaw size and orientation requires that a probabilistic analysis be performed in order to determine component reliability. The current trend in probabilistic analysis is to combine linear elastic fracture mechanics concepts with the two parameter Weibull distribution function to predict component reliability under multiaxial stress states. Nondestructive evaluation supports this analytical effort by supplying data during verification testing. It can also help to determine statistical parameters which describe the material strength variation, in particular the material threshold strength (the third Weibull parameter), which in the past was often taken as zero for simplicity.

Manderscheid, Jane M.↗

NASA NTRS1995

On the upstream boundary of electron foreshocks in the solar wind

The upstream boundary of electron foreshocks is defined as the path of the fastest electrons reflected by collisionless shocks and moving along the magnetic field in the solar wind. Considerable levels of magnetic fluctuations are found in these regions of the solar wind, and their effect is to create both a broadening and a fine structure of the electron foreshock boundary. The magnetic structure is studied by means of a 3-D numerical simulation of a turbulent magnetic field. Enhanced, anomalous diffusion is found, (Delta x(exp 2)) varies as s(sup alpha), where alpha is greater than 1 for typical values of the parameters (here, Delta x(exp 2) is the mean square width of the tangent magnetic surface and s is the field line length). This corresponds to a Levy flight regime for the magnetic field line random walk, and allows very efficient electron propagation perpendicular to the magnetic field. Implications on the observations of planetary foreshocks and of the termination shock foreshock are considered.

Zimbardo, G.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Estimation of Vegetation Aerodynamic Roughness of Natural Regions Using Frontal Area Density Determined from Satellite Imagery

Parameterizations of the frontal area index and canopy area index of natural or randomly distributed plants are developed, and applied to the estimation of local aerodynamic roughness using satellite imagery. The formulas are expressed in terms of the subpixel fractional vegetation cover and one non-dimensional geometric parameter that characterizes the plant's shape. Geometrically similar plants and Poisson distributed plant centers are assumed. An appropriate averaging technique to extend satellite pixel-scale estimates to larger scales is provided. ne parameterization is applied to the estimation of aerodynamic roughness using satellite imagery for a 2.3 sq km coniferous portion of the Landes Forest near Lubbon, France, during the 1986 HAPEX-Mobilhy Experiment. The canopy area index is estimated first for each pixel in the scene based on previous estimates of fractional cover obtained using Landsat Thematic Mapper imagery. Next, the results are incorporated into Raupach's (1992, 1994) analytical formulas for momentum roughness and zero-plane displacement height. The estimates compare reasonably well to reference values determined from measurements taken during the experiment and to published literature values. The approach offers the potential for estimating regionally variable, vegetation aerodynamic roughness lengths over natural regions using satellite imagery when there exists only limited knowledge of the vegetated surface.

Jasinski, Michael F.↗

NASA NTRS1998

Parameterization of Vegetation Aerodynamic Roughness of Natural Regions Satellite Imagery

Parameterizations of the frontal area index and canopy area index of natural or randomly distributed plants are developed, and applied to the estimation of local aerodynamic roughness using satellite imagery. The formulas are expressed in terms of the subpixel fractional vegetation cover and one non-dimensional geometric parameter that characterizes the plant's shape. Geometrically similar plants and Poisson distributed plant centers are assumed. An appropriate averaging technique to extend satellite pixel-scale estimates to larger scales is provided. The parameterization is applied to the estimation of aerodynamic roughness using satellite imagery for a 2.3 sq km coniferous portion of the Landes Forest near Lubbon, France, during the 1986 HAPEX-Mobilhy Experiment. The canopy area index is estimated first for each pixel in the scene based on previous estimates of fractional cover obtained using Landsat Thematic Mapper imagery. Next, the results are incorporated into Raupach's (1992, 1994) analytical formulas for momentum roughness and zero-plane displacement height. The estimates compare reasonably well to reference values determined from measurements taken during the experiment and to published literature values. The approach offers the potential for estimating regionally variable, vegetation aerodynamic roughness lengths over natural regions using satellite imagery when there exists only limited knowledge of the vegetated surface.

Jasinski, Michael F.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Characterizing skyrmion flow phases with principal component analysis

Principal component analysis (PCA) is a powerful method that can identify patterns in large, complex data sets by constructing low-dimensional order parameters from higher-dimensional feature vectors. There are increasing efforts to use space-and-time-dependent PCA to detect transitions in nonequilibrium systems that are difficult to characterize with equilibrium methods. Here, we demonstrate that feature vectors incorporating the position and velocity information of driven skyrmions moving through random disorder permit PCA to resolve different types of disordered skyrmion motion as a function of driving force and the ratio of the Magnus force to the dissipation. Since the Magnus force creates gyroscopic motion and a finite Hall angle, skyrmions can exhibit a greater range of flow phases than what is observed in overdamped driven systems with quenched disorder. We show that in addition to identifying previously known skyrmion flow phases, PCA detects several additional phases, including different types of channel flow, moving fluids, and partially ordered states. Guided by the PCA analysis, we further characterize the disordered flow phases to elucidate the different microscopic dynamics and show that the changes in the PCA-derived order parameters can be connected to features in bulk transport measures, including the transverse and longitudinal velocity-force curves, differential conductivity, topological defect density, and changes in the skyrmion Hall angle as a function of drive. We discuss how asymmetric feature vectors can be used to improve the resolution of the PCA analysis, and how this technique can be extended to find disordered phases in other nonequilibrium systems with time-dependent dynamics.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NASA NTRS1986

Pervasive small-scale structure in molecular clouds

An unbiased CO survey of molecular cloud cores was completed, and the profiles were analyzed within the context of a model for emission from clumpy clouds. It was found that all sources observed contain a significant amount of structure that is not resolved with our 2.3-arcmin beam, and that the parameters which describe the degree of clumping span a remarkably narrow range of the possible values. We studied two separate samples of cloud cores: a large sample of warm cores from the Massachusetts-Stony Brook 12CO survey of the first galactic quadrant, and a sample of cool cores in the Taurus dark clouds chosen primarily on the basis of H2CO emission. We observed all sources in the 1-0 transition of 12CO and 13CO with the 5-m telescope of the Millimeter Wave Observatory. The 12CO/13CO ratios can be explained if there is unresolved structure giving rise to significant variations of opacity across the beam. Our model cloud consists of a large number of identical clumps distributed randomly in the beam. These clumps have velocity widths v small compared to the width of the observed profile, which is determined by the relative motion of the clumps. The entire cloud is isothermal and in local thermodynamic equilibrium. With these assumptions the intensity and linewidth ratios depend on three parameters: the abundance ratio; the peak 13CO opacity through a single clump, tau(0); and the average number of clumps on a line of sight N. Small tau(0) and large N correspond to the microturbulent limit, which is indistinguishable from a uniform gas distribution. In the other extreme, large tau(0) and snall N, at a given velocity at most one clump contributes to the profile on each line of sight. A figure is presented which shows the model parameters which reproduce the measured intensity and linewidth ratios for the sample of warm cores, assuming an abundance ratio of 75.

Martin, B.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Uncertainty propagation in feed-forward neural network models

We develop new uncertainty propagation methods for feed-forward neural network architectures with leaky ReLU activation functions subject to random perturbations in the input vectors. In particular, we derive analytical expressions for the probability density function (PDF) of the neural network output and its statistical moments as a function of the input uncertainty and the parameters of the network, i.e., weights and biases. A key finding is that an appropriate linearization of the leaky ReLU activation function yields accurate statistical results even for large perturbations in the input vectors. This can be attributed to the way information propagates through the network. We also propose new analytically tractable Gaussian copula surrogate models to approximate the full joint PDF of the neural network output. To validate our theoretical results, we conduct Monte Carlo simulations and a thorough error analysis on a multi-layer neural network representing a nonlinear integro-differential operator between two polynomial function spaces. Our findings demonstrate excellent agreement between the theoretical predictions and Monte Carlo simulations.

MLP networks↗

NASA NTRS1974

Space shuttle OMS helium regulator design and development

Analysis, design, fabrication and design verification testing was conducted on the technological feasiblity of the helium pressurization regulator for the space shuttle orbital maneuvering system application. A prototype regulator was fabricated which was a single-stage design featuring the most reliable and lowest cost concept. A tradeoff study on regulator concepts indicated that a single-stage regulator with a lever arm between the valve and the actuator section would offer significant weight savings. Damping concepts were tested to determine the amount of damping required to restrict actuator travel during vibration. Component design parameters such as spring rates, effective area, contamination cutting, and damping were determined by test prior to regulator final assembly. The unit was subjected to performance testing at widely ranging flow rates, temperatures, inlet pressures, and random vibration levels. A test plan for propellant compatibility and extended life tests is included.

Wichmann, H.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Range data description based on multiple characteristics

An algorithm for describing range images based on Mean curvature (H) and Gaussian curvature (K) is presented. Range images are unique in that they directly approximate the physical surfaces of a real world 3-D scene. The curvature parameters are derived from the fundamental theorems of differential geometry and provides visible invariant pixel labels that can be used to characterize the scene. The sign of H and K can be used to classify each pixel into one of eight possible surface types. Due to the sensitivity of these parameters to noise the resulting HK-sing map does not directly identify surfaces in the range images and must be further processed. A region growing algorithm based on modeling the scene points with a Markov Random Field (MRF) of variable neighborhood size and edge models is suggested. This approach allows the integration of information from multiple characteristics in an efficient way. The performance of the proposed algorithm on a number of synthetic and real range images is discussed.

Al-Hujazi, Ezzet↗