Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “random variables”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 649 records · Page 36
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Peridynamic Model for Microballistic Perforation of Multilayer Graphene

The peridynamic theory of solid mechanics is applied to the continuum modeling of the impact of small, high-velocity silica spheres on multilayer graphene targets. The model treats the laminate as a brittle elastic membrane. The material model includes separate failure criteria for the initial rupture of the membrane and for propagating cracks. Material variability is incorporated by assigning random variations in elastic properties within Voronoi cells. Here, the computational model is shown to reproduce the primary aspects of the response observed in experiments, including the growth of a family of radial cracks from the point of impact.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Data-Driven Preemptive Voltage Monitoring and Control Using Probabilistic Voltage Sensitivities

Increased penetration levels of distributed variable renewable generation can cause random voltage fluctuations and violations at multiple nodes. Traditional methods of voltage control typically involve reactionary responses of capacitor banks, tap changers, and recently even smart inverters. But because of the lack of foresight in voltage violations, these controls are ineffective to completely mitigate the issue. Therefore, new methods of predicting voltage violations subject to random power injection changes in the distribution network are needed, which can be used to guide optimal and dynamic methods of voltage control. This work lays the foundation for such preemptive voltage monitoring and control by proposing an analytical and sensor data-driven voltage sensitivity analysis method. Driven by stochastic data and forecasts, the method can be used to develop probabilistic voltage sensitivities and consequently to predict system nodes with high likelihood of voltage limit violations. The effectiveness of this method is tested on IEEE 69-node distribution system integrated with distributed solar. The results demonstrate the proposed method's ability to successfully predict nodes with high probability of voltage violations for a specific time-series simulation. The results also demonstrate the ability to guide timely power injection control actions to mitigate future voltage violations.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

An Information Theoretic Approach to Identify Dominant Voltage Influencers for Unbalanced Distribution Systems

Smart distribution grid with multiple renewable energy sources can experience random voltage fluctuations due to variable generation, which may result in voltage violations. Traditional voltage control algorithms are inadequate to handle fast voltage variations. Therefore, new dynamic control methods are being developed that can significantly benefit from the knowledge of dominant voltage influencer (DVI) nodes. DVI nodes for a particular node of interest refer to nodes that have a relatively high impact on the voltage fluctuations at that node. Conventional power flow-based algorithms to identify DVI nodes are computationally complex, which limits their use in real-time applications. This paper proposes a novel information theoretic voltage influencing score (VIS) that quantifies the voltage influencing capacity of nodes with DERs/active loads in a three phase unbalanced distribution system. VIS is then employed to rank the nodes and identify the DVI set. VIS is derived analytically in a computationally efficient manner and its efficacy to identify DVI nodes is validated using the IEEE 37-node test system. It is shown through experiments that KL divergence and Bhattacharyya distance are effective indicators of DVI nodes with an identifying accuracy of more than 90%. Additionally, the computation burden is also reduced by an order of 5, thus providing the foundation for efficient voltage control.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Moisture availability mediates the relationship between terrestrial gross primary production and solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence: Insights from global-scale variations

Effective use of solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) to estimate and monitor gross primary production (GPP) in terrestrial ecosystems requires a comprehensive understanding and quantification of the relationship between SIF and GPP. To date, this understanding is incomplete and somewhat controversial in the literature. Here we derived the GPP/SIF ratio from multiple data sources as a diagnostic metric to explore its global-scale patterns of spatial variation and potential climatic dependence. We found that the growing season GPP/SIF ratio varied substantially across global land surfaces, with the highest ratios consistently found in boreal regions. Spatial variation in GPP/SIF was strongly modulated by climate variables. The most striking pattern was a consistent decrease in GPP/SIF from cold-and-wet climates to hot-and-dry climates. We propose that the reduction in GPP/SIF with decreasing moisture availability may be related to stomatal responses to aridity. Furthermore, we show that GPP/SIF can be empirically modeled from climate variables using a machine learning (random forest) framework, which can improve the modeling of ecosystem production and quantify its uncertainty in global terrestrial biosphere models. Finally, our results point to the need for targeted field and experimental studies to better understand the patterns observed and to improve the modeling of the relationship between SIF and GPP over broad scales.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

SU-D-207B-02: Early Grade Classification in Meningioma Patients Combining Radiomics and Semantics Data

Purpose: The clinical management of meningioma is guided by its grade and biologic behavior. Currently, diagnosis of tumor grade follows surgical resection and histopathologic review. Reliable techniques for pre-operative determination of tumor behavior are needed. We investigated the association between imaging features extracted from preoperative gadolinium-enhanced T1-weighted MRI and meningioma grade. Methods: We retrospectively examined the pre-operative MRI for 139 patients with de novo WHO grade I (63%) and grade II (37%) meningiomas. We investigated the predictive power of ten semantic radiologic features as determined by a neuroradiologist, fifteen radiomic features, and tumor location. Conventional (volume and diameter) imaging features were added for comparison. AUC was computed for continuous and χ{sup 2} for discrete variables. Classification was done using random forest. Performance was evaluated using cross validation (1000 iterations, 75% training and 25% validation). All p-values were adjusted for multiple testing. Results: Significant association was observed between meningioma grade and tumor location (p<0.001) and two semantic features including intra-tumoral heterogeneity (p<0.001) and overt hemorrhage (p=0.01). Conventional (AUC 0.61–0.67) and eleven radiomic (AUC 0.60–0.70) features were significant from random (p<0.05, Noether test). Median AUC values for classification of tumor grade were 0.57, 0.71, 0.72 and 0.77 respectively for conventional, radiomic, location, and semantic features after using random forest. By combining all imaging data (semantic, radiomic, and location), the median AUC was 0.81, which offers superior predicting power to that of conventional imaging descriptors for meningioma as well as radiomic features alone (p<0.05, permutation test). Conclusion: We demonstrate a strong association between radiologic features and meningioma grade. Pre-operative prediction of tumor behavior based on imaging features offers promise for guiding personalized medicine and improving patient management.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2014

Statistically significant relational data mining :

This report summarizes the work performed under the project (3z(BStatitically significant relational data mining.(3y (BThe goal of the project was to add more statistical rigor to the fairly ad hoc area of data mining on graphs. Our goal was to develop better algorithms and better ways to evaluate algorithm quality. We concetrated on algorithms for community detection, approximate pattern matching, and graph similarity measures. Approximate pattern matching involves finding an instance of a relatively small pattern, expressed with tolerance, in a large graph of data observed with uncertainty. This report gathers the abstracts and references for the eight refereed publications that have appeared as part of this work. We then archive three pieces of research that have not yet been published. The first is theoretical and experimental evidence that a popular statistical measure for comparison of community assignments favors over-resolved communities over approximations to a ground truth. The second are statistically motivated methods for measuring the quality of an approximate match of a small pattern in a large graph. The third is a new probabilistic random graph model. Statisticians favor these models for graph analysis. The new local structure graph model overcomes some of the issues with popular models such as exponential random graph models and latent variable models.

Berry, Jonathan W.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Computational Model for Microballistic Perforation of Multilayer Graphene

The peridynamic theory of solid mechanics is applied to the continuum modeling of the impact of small, high-velocity silica spheres on multilayer graphene targets. The model treats the laminate as a brittle elastic membrane. The material model includes separate failure criteria for the initial rupture of the membrane and for propagating cracks. Material variability is incorporated by assigning random variations in elastic properties within Voronoi cells. The computational model is shown to reproduce the primary aspects of the response observed in experiments, including the growth of a family of radial cracks from the point of impact.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS2002

Probabilistic and Possibilistic Analyses of the Strength of a Bonded Joint

The effects of uncertainties on the predicted strength of a single lap shear joint are examined. Probabilistic and possibilistic methods are used to account for uncertainties. A total of ten variables are assumed to be random, with normal distributions. Both Monte Carlo Simulation and the First Order Reliability Method are used to determine the probability of failure. Triangular membership functions with upper and lower bounds located at plus or minus three standard deviations are used to model uncertainty in the possibilistic analysis. The alpha cut (or vertex) method is used to evaluate the possibility of failure. Linear and geometrically nonlinear finite element analyses are used calculate the response of the joint; fracture in the adhesive and material strength failure in the strap are used to evaluate its strength. Although probabilistic and possibilistic analyses provide significantly more information than do conventional deterministic analyses, they are computationally expensive. A novel scaling approach is developed and used to substantially reduce the computational cost of the probabilistic and possibilistic analyses. The possibilistic approach for treating uncertainties appears to be viable during the conceptual and preliminary design stages when limited data are available and high accuracies are not needed. However, this viability is mixed with several cautions that are discussed herein.

Stroud, W. Jefferson↗
NASA NTRS1956

On the Contribution of Turbulent Boundary Layers to the Noise Inside a Fuselage

The following report deals in preliminary fashion with the transmission through a fuselage of random noise generated on the fuselage skin by a turbulent boundary layer. The concept of attenuation is abandoned and instead the problem is formulated as a sequence of two linear couplings: the turbulent boundary layer fluctuations excite the fuselage skin in lateral vibrations and the skin vibrations induce sound inside the fuselage. The techniques used are those required to determine the response of linear systems to random forcing functions of several variables. A certain degree of idealization has been resorted to. Thus the boundary layer is assumed locally homogeneous, the fuselage skin is assumed flat, unlined and free from axial loads and the 'cabin' air is bounded only by the vibrating plate so that only outgoing waves are considered. Some of the details of the statistical description have been simplified in order to reveal the basic features of the problem. The results, strictly applicable only to the limiting case of thin boundary layers, show that the sound pressure intensity is proportional to the square of the free stream density, the square of cabin air density and inversely proportional to the first power of the damping constant and to the second power of the plate density. The dependence on free stream velocity and boundary layer thickness cannot be given in general without a detailed knowledge of the characteristics of the pressure fluctuations in the boundary layer (in particular the frequency spectrum). For a flat spectrum the noise intensity depends on the fifth power of the velocity and the first power of the boundary layer thickness. This suggests that boundary layer removal is probably not an economical means for decreasing cabin noise. In general, the analysis presented here only reduces the determination of cabin noise intensity to the measurement of the effect of any one of our variables (free stream velocity, boundary layer thickness, plate thickness or the characteristic velocity of propagation in the plate). The plate generates noise by vibrating in resonance over a wide range of frequencies and increasing the damping constant is consequently an effective method of decreasing noise generation. One of the main features of the results is that the relevant quantities upon which noise intensity depends are non-dimensional numbers in which boundary layer and plate properties enter as ratios. This is taken as an indication that in testing models of structures for boundary layer noise it is not sufficient to duplicate in the model the structural characteristics of the fuselage. One must match properly the characteristics of the exicitng pressure fluctuations to that of the structure.

Corcos, G. M.↗
NASA NTRS2021

Vegetation Monitoring Optimization with Normalized Difference Vegetation Index and Evapotranspiration Using Remote Sensing Measurements and Land Surface Models Over East Africa

The majority of people in East Africa rely on the agro-pastoral system for their livelihood, which is highly vulnerable to droughts and flooding. Agro-pastoral droughts are endemic to the region and are considered the main natural hazard that contributes to food insecurity. Drought begins with rainfall deficit, gradually leading to soil moisture deficit, higher land surface temperature, and finally impacts to vegetation growth. Therefore, monitoring vegetation conditions is essential in understanding the progression of drought, potential effects on food security, and providing early warning information needed for drought mitigation decisions. Because vegetation processes couple the land and atmosphere, monitoring of vegetation conditions requires consideration of both water provision and demand. While there is consensus in using either the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) or evapotranspiration(ET) for vegetation monitoring, a comprehensive assessment optimizing the use of both has not yet been done. Moreover, the evaluation methods for understanding the relationships between NDVI and ET for vegetation monitoring are also limited. Taking these gaps into account we have developed a framework to optimize vegetation monitoring using both NDVI and ET by identifying where they perform the best by using triple collocation and cross-correlation methods. We estimated the random error structure in Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) NDVI; ET from the Operational Simplified Surface Energy Balance (SSEBop) model; and ET from land surface models (LSMs). LSM ET and SSEBop ET have been found to be better indicators for vegetation monitoring during extreme drought events, while NDVI could provide better information on vegetation condition during wetter than normal conditions. The random error structures of these variables suggest that LSM ET is most likely to provide important information for vegetation monitoring over low and high ends of the vegetation fraction areas. Over moderate vegetative areas, any of these variables could provide important vegetation information for drought characterization and food security assessments. While this study provides a framework for optimizing vegetation monitoring for drought and food security assessments over East Africa, the framework can be adopted to optimize vegetation monitoring over any other drought and food insecure region of the world.

triple collocation↗
DOE OSTI2017

Quantum communications system with integrated photonic devices

Security is increased in quantum communication (QC) systems lacking a true single-photon laser source by encoding a transmitted optical signal with two or more decoy-states. A variable attenuator or amplitude modulator randomly imposes average photon values onto the optical signal based on data input and the predetermined decoy-states. By measuring and comparing photon distributions for a received QC signal, a single-photon transmittance is estimated. Fiber birefringence is compensated by applying polarization modulation. A transmitter can be configured to transmit in conjugate polarization bases whose states of polarization (SOPs) can be represented as equidistant points on a great circle on the Poincare sphere so that the received SOPs are mapped to equidistant points on a great circle and routed to corresponding detectors. Transmitters are implemented in quantum communication cards and can be assembled from micro-optical components, or transmitter components can be fabricated as part of a monolithic or hybrid chip-scale circuit.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2019

Exploring Intentional Driving Volatility in Naturalistic Driving Environment Prior to Involvement in Unsafe Events

The sequence of instantaneous driving decisions and its variations prior to involvement in safety critical events, defined as event-based volatility, can be a leading indicator of safety. The research issue is characterizing volatility in instantaneous driving decisions in longitudinal and lateral directions, and how it varies across drivers involved in normal driving, crash, and near-crash events. A rigorous quasi-experimental study design is adopted to help compare driving behaviors in normal vs unsafe outcomes. Using a unique real-world naturalistic driving database from the SHRP 2, a test set of 9,593 driving events featuring 2.2 million temporal samples of real-world driving are analyzed. Twenty-four aggregate and segmented driving volatility measures based on acceleration and vehicular jerk are proposed, capturing variations in intentional and unintentional extreme instantaneous driving decisions. Given the possibility of unobserved heterogeneity/omitted variable bias, fixed- and random-parameter discrete choice models are developed that relate crash propensity to driving volatility and other factors. Statistically significant evidence is found that driver volatilities in near-crash and crash events are significantly greater than volatility in normal driving events. After controlling for traffic, roadway, and unobserved factors, the results suggest that greater intentional volatility increases the likelihood of both crash and near-crash events. Importantly, intentional volatility in longitudinal negative jerk has more negative consequences than intentional volatility in positive vehicular jerk. Compared to acceleration/deceleration, vehicular jerk can better characterize the volatility in microscopic driving decisions. The study demonstrates the value of big data analytics for understanding extreme driving behaviors in safe vs. unsafe driving outcomes.

Wali, Behram↗
NASA NTRS1994

A probabilistic fatigue analysis of multiple site damage

The variability in initial crack size and fatigue crack growth is incorporated in a probabilistic model that is used to predict the fatigue lives for unstiffened aluminum alloy panels containing multiple site damage (MSD). The uncertainty of the damage in the MSD panel is represented by a distribution of fatigue crack lengths that are analytically derived from equivalent initial flaw sizes. The variability in fatigue crack growth rate is characterized by stochastic descriptions of crack growth parameters for a modified Paris crack growth law. A Monte-Carlo simulation explicitly describes the MSD panel by randomly selecting values from the stochastic variables and then grows the MSD cracks with a deterministic fatigue model until the panel fails. Different simulations investigate the influences of the fatigue variability on the distributions of remaining fatigue lives. Six cases that consider fixed and variable conditions of initial crack size and fatigue crack growth rate are examined. The crack size distribution exhibited a dominant effect on the remaining fatigue life distribution, and the variable crack growth rate exhibited a lesser effect on the distribution. In addition, the probabilistic model predicted that only a small percentage of the life remains after a lead crack develops in the MSD panel.

Rohrbaugh, S. M.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Electronegative metal dopants improve switching variability in Al 2 ⁢O 3 resistive switching devices

Resistive random-access memories are promising for nonvolatile memory and brain-inspired computing applications. High variability and low yield of these devices are key drawbacks hindering reliable training of physical neural networks. In this paper, we show that doping an oxide electrolyte, Al 2 ⁢O 3 , with electronegative metals makes resistive switching significantly more reproducible, surpassing the reproducibility requirements for obtaining reliable hardware neuromorphic circuits. Based on density functional theory calculations, the underlying mechanism is hypothesized to be the ease of creating oxygen vacancies in the vicinity of electronegative dopants due to the capture of the associated electrons by dopant midgap states and the weakening of Al-O bonds. These oxygen vacancies and vacancy clusters also bind significantly to the dopant, thereby serving as preferential sites and building blocks in the formation of conducting paths. Throughout this work, we validate this theory experimentally by implanting different dopants over a range of electronegativities in devices made of multiple alternating layers of Al 2 ⁢O 3 and WN and find superior repeatability and yield with highly electronegative metals, Au, Pt, and Pd. These devices also exhibit a gradual SET transition, enabling multibit switching that is desirable for analog computing.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS2001

Gravitational Core-Mantle Coupling and the Acceleration of the Earth

Gravitational core-mantle coupling may be the cause of the observed variable acceleration of the Earth's rotation on the 1000 year timescale. The idea is that density inhomogeneities which randomly come and go in the liquid outer core gravitationally attract density inhomogeneities in the mantle and crust, torquing the mantle and changing its rotation state. The corresponding torque by the mantle on the core may also explain the westward drift of the magnetic field of 0.2 deg per year. Gravitational core-mantle coupling would stochastically affect the rate of change of the Earth's obliquity by just a few per cent. Its contribution to polar wander would only be about 0.5% the presently observed rate. Tidal friction is slowing down the rotation of the Earth, overwhelming a smaller positive acceleration from postglacial rebound. Coupling between the liquid outer core of the Earth and the mantle has long been a suspected reason for changes in the length-of-day. The present investigation focuses on the gravitational coupling between the density anomalies in the convecting liquid outer core and those in the mantle and crust as a possible cause for the observed nonsecular acceleration on the millenial timescale. The basic idea is as follows. There are density inhomogeneities caused by blobs circulating in the outer core like the blobs in a lava lamp; thus the outer core's gravitational field is not featureless. Moreover, these blobs will form and dissipate somewhat randomly. Thus there will be a time variability to the fields. These density inhomogeneities will gravitationally attract the density anomalies in the mantle.

Rubincam, David Parry↗
NASA NTRS2021

Colorado Front Range Disasters: Understanding the Impact of Forest Management on the Cameron Peak and CalWood Fire

Along the Colorado Front Range, forest management has gained significant attention due to uncharacteristically large fires that burned late in 2020. The Cameron Peak Fire (largest in Colorado recorded history) and the CalWood Fire collectively burned an estimated 219,019 acres from August through December of 2020. Project partners at the Coalition for the Poudre River Watershed, Colorado State Forest Service, Ben Delatour Scout Ranch, The Nature Conservancy, Colorado Forest Restoration Institute, and Colorado State University were interested in understanding the effectiveness of previous forest treatments in reducing burn severity within the Cameron Peak Fire and the CalWood Fire. We first collated a forest treatment dataset from pre-existing datasets by reclassifying over 29,000 treatments, which occurred across the Northern Colorado Front Range between 1970-2020. Secondly, we mapped three burn severity indices using Landsat 8 OLI and Sentinel-2 MSI Earth observations and compared them to soil burn severity field data. Thirdly, a total of 35 topographic, disturbance, forest structure, and treatment predictor variables were generated across the fires. Finally, we assessed relationships between these predictor variables and burn severity using the random forest algorithm. Model results indicate that the primary drivers of burn severity were elevation and distance to treatment edge for the Cameron Peak Fire and fire area and forest canopy cover for the CalWood Fire. Further analysis of these variables paired with field data is necessary to understand the relationship between burn severity and treatments to guide future restoration efforts, improve forest resiliency, and mitigate fire risks.

Neal Swayze↗