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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 649 records · Page 36
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

A spatially regularized detector for emergent/re-emergent disease outbreaks

Early detection of outbreaks caused by emergent pathogens, using epidemiological surveillance data i.e., daily case counts, is difficult. This is because the data tend to be noisy during the early epoch of the outbreak. In contrast, the spread-rate of the disease tends to be well-behaved, as it depends only on the mixing patterns of the population and the characteristics of the pathogen, neither of which behave erratically in space-time. In this report, we explore whether the spread-rate can be used for epidemiological surveillance, conditional on case count data. Estimating the spread-rate from case count data allows us to exploit exogenous information, e.g., incubation period distributions etc., which can considerably smooth out any erratic temporal behavior. Further, epidemiological dynamics are spatially correlated, and if case counts are available for multiple areal units e.g., counties, these correlations could potentially be used to suppress noise in the early epoch data. These exogenous information and structure are not exploited by conventional syndromic surveillance detectors to extract a well-behaved latent variable for monitoring purposes. The technical challenge lies in the estimation of the spread-rate field jointly over a collection of areal units; further, the spread-rate varies over time. We develop a method based on mean-field variational inference to approximately estimate the spread-rate field, using a Gaussian Random Field Model for spatial regularization. The method is tested on the estimation of spread-rate in the thirty-three counties of New Mexico and detect the arrival of the Fall 2020 COVID-19 wave in September 2020. We find that the method is scalable, but underestimates the uncertainty in the estimated spread-rate field. We detect the arrival of the Fall 2020 wave a week ahead of conventional syndromic surveillance algorithms, but our simplistic detection algorithm, based on simple anomaly detection, suffers from a high false positive rate, similar to conventional detectors.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2005

A Method to Analyze Tail Buffet Loads of Aircraft

Aircraft designers commit significant resources to the design of aircraft in meeting performance goals. Despite fulfilling traditional design requirements, many fighter aircraft have encountered buffet loads when demonstrating their high angle-of-attack maneuver capabilities. As a result, during test or initial production phases of fighter development programs, many new designs are impacted, usually in a detrimental way, by resulting in reassessing designs or limiting full mission capability. These troublesome experiences usually stem from overlooking or completely ignoring the effects of buffet during the design phase of aircraft. Perhaps additional requirements are necessary that addresses effects of buffet in achieving best aircraft performance in fulfilling mission goals. This paper describes a reliable, fairly simple, but quite general buffet loads analysis method to use in the initial design phases of fighter-aircraft development. The method is very similar to the random gust load analysis that is now commonly available in a commercial code, which this analysis capability is based, with some key modifications. The paper describes the theory and the implementation of the methodology. The method is demonstrated on a JSF prototype example problem. The demonstration also serves as a validation of the method, since, in the paper, the analysis is shown to nearly match the flight data. In addition, the paper demonstrates how the analysis method can be used to assess candidate design concepts in determining a satisfactory final aircraft configuration.

Pototzky, Anthony S.↗
NASA NTRS2005

A Tail Buffet Loads Prediction Method for Aircraft at High Angles of Attack

Aircraft designers commit significant resources to the design of aircraft in meeting performance goals. Despite fulfilling traditional design requirements, many fighter aircraft have encountered buffet loads when demonstrating their high angle-of-attack maneuver capabilities. As a result, during test or initial production phases of fighter development programs, many new designs are impacted, usually in a detrimental way, by resulting in reassessing designs or limiting full mission capability. These troublesome experiences usually stem from overlooking or completely ignoring the effects of buffet during the design phase of aircraft. Perhaps additional requirements are necessary that addresses effects of buffet in achieving best aircraft performance in fulfilling mission goals. This paper describes a reliable, fairly simple, but quite general buffet loads analysis method to use in the initial design phases of fighter-aircraft development. The method is very similar to the random gust load analysis that is now commonly available in a commercial code, which this analysis capability is based, with some key modifications. The paper describes the theory and the implementation of the methodology. The method is demonstrated on a JSF prototype example problem. The demonstration also serves as a validation of the method, since, in the paper, the analysis is shown to nearly match the flight data. In addition, the paper demonstrates how the analysis method can be used to assess candidate design concepts in determining a satisfactory final aircraft configuration.

Pototzky, Anthony S.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Denoising Autoencoder for Reconstructing Sensor Observation Data and Predicting Evapotranspiration: Noisy and Missing Values Repair and Uncertainty Quantification

Abstract Machine learning (ML) methods applied in scientific research often deal with interrelated features in high‐dimensional data. Reducing data noise and redundancy is needed to increase prediction accuracy and efficiency especially when dealing with data from field sensors. We explored an unsupervised learning method, the denoising autoencoder (DAE), to extract the underlying data structure from noisy raw data in the context of predicting hydrologic quantities from multiple field sensors. These sensors have intrinsic instrumental noise and occasional malfunctions that cause missing values. Our DAE neural network reconstructed meteorological sensor data containing noise and missing values to predict evapotranspiration in a mountainous watershed. The DAE reconstructed the sensor variables with a mean coefficient of determination value of 0.77 across 15 dimensions representing individual sensors. It reduced variance and bias uncertainties compared to a classical autoencoder model. The reconstruction quality varied across dimensions depending on their cross‐correlation and alignment with the underlying data structure. Uncertainties arising from the model structure were overall higher than those resulting from data corruption. We attached the DAE structure to a downstream ET‐prediction neural network in three formats and achieved reasonably accurate ET predictions . The use of the DAE notably reduced variance uncertainty in ET prediction. However, excessive variance reduction may be accompanied by an increase in bias due to the intrinsic bias‐variance tradeoff. Our method of evaluating and reducing uncertainties in aggregated data from different sources can be used to improve predictive models, process understanding, and uncertainty quantification for better water resource management. Plain Language Summary We present a machine learning method, namely the denoising autoencoder, which reduces the effects of data noise and missing values typically present in scientific data sets collected through sensor measurements. This method selects the most relevant information from noisy raw data collected by the instruments and fills in missing values. To demonstrate the effectiveness of our method, we applied it to predict evapotranspiration, a hydrologic variable that represents the water moved from the land surface to the atmosphere through a combination of evaporation and plant water use (transpiration). We also used a random sampling technique (the Monte Carlo method) to compare the uncertainty in the predictions when using the raw and noisy data versus the reconstructed data. The denoising process produced more accurate predictions of evapotranspiration with less uncertainty. Improved predictions of evapotranspiration can lead to a better understanding and accounting of water budgets. This ML approach is broadly suitable for a wide variety of applications that involve noisy sensor data with missing values. Key Points We used a denoising autoencoder (DAE) neural network to reduce noise in meteorological and soil sensor observations by on average We used Monte Carlo sampling to estimate the bias and variance of all model outputs, including uncertainty sources from data and the model We attached the DAE component to a downstream neural network to predict ET with the variance reduced by , compared to that without the DAE

denoising autoencoder↗
NASA NTRS1988

Retrieval of constituent mixing ratios from limb thermal emission spectra

An onion-peeling iterative, least-squares relaxation method to retrieve mixing ratio profiles from limb thermal emission spectra is presented. The method has been tested on synthetic data, containing various amounts of added random noise for O3, HNO3, and N2O. The retrieval method is used to obtain O3 and HNO3 mixing ratio profiles from high-resolution thermal emission spectra. Results of the retrievals compare favorably with those obtained previously.

Shaffer, William A.↗
NASA NTRS2007

A Simple Stochastic Model for Generating Broken Cloud Optical Depth and Top Height Fields

A simple and fast algorithm for generating two correlated stochastic twodimensional (2D) cloud fields is described. The algorithm is illustrated with two broken cumulus cloud fields: cloud optical depth and cloud top height retrieved from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS). Only two 2D fields are required as an input. The algorithm output is statistical realizations of these two fields with approximately the same correlation and joint distribution functions as the original ones. The major assumption of the algorithm is statistical isotropy of the fields. In contrast to fractals and the Fourier filtering methods frequently used for stochastic cloud modeling, the proposed method is based on spectral models of homogeneous random fields. For keeping the same probability density function as the (first) original field, the method of inverse distribution function is used. When the spatial distribution of the first field has been generated, a realization of the correlated second field is simulated using a conditional distribution matrix. This paper is served as a theoretical justification to the publicly available software that has been recently released by the authors and can be freely downloaded from http://i3rc.gsfc.nasa.gov/Public codes clouds.htm. Though 2D rather than full 3D, stochastic realizations of two correlated cloud fields that mimic statistics of given fields have proved to be very useful to study 3D radiative transfer features of broken cumulus clouds for better understanding of shortwave radiation and interpretation of the remote sensing retrievals.

Prigarin, Sergei M.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Unifying and benchmarking state-of-the-art quantum error mitigation techniques

Error mitigation is an essential component of achieving a practical quantum advantage in the near term, and a number of different approaches have been proposed. In this work, we recognize that many state-of-the-art error mitigation methods share a common feature: they are data-driven, employing classical data obtained from runs of different quantum circuits. For example, Zero-noise extrapolation (ZNE) uses variable noise data and Clifford-data regression (CDR) uses data from near-Clifford circuits. We show that Virtual Distillation (VD) can be viewed in a similar manner by considering classical data produced from different numbers of state preparations. Observing this fact allows us to unify these three methods under a general data-driven error mitigation framework that we call UNIfied Technique for Error mitigation with Data (UNITED). In certain situations, we find that our UNITED method can outperform the individual methods (i.e., the whole is better than the individual parts). Specifically, we employ a realistic noise model obtained from a trapped ion quantum computer to benchmark UNITED, as well as other state-of-the-art methods, in mitigating observables produced from random quantum circuits and the Quantum Alternating Operator Ansatz (QAOA) applied to Max-Cut problems with various numbers of qubits, circuit depths and total numbers of shots. We find that the performance of different techniques depends strongly on shot budgets, with more powerful methods requiring more shots for optimal performance. For our largest considered shot budget (10 10 ), we find that UNITED gives the most accurate mitigation. Hence, our work represents a benchmarking of current error mitigation methods and provides a guide for the regimes when certain methods are most useful.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2025

Informing Plant Asset Reliability and Availability Through AI-Driven Analysis of Operator Logs

The availability and reliability of nuclear power plant (NPP) structures, systems, and components (SSCs) are critical parameters for NPP safety. Tracking these parameters is necessary but costly and labor-intensive, requiring the collection and evaluation of SSC event data such as shutdowns, startups, and failures. To show how these events are needed for the parameters an example is given: one measure of reliability is based on the number of equipment failure events and the number of run hours (i.e., the time from a startup event to a shutdown event). Here, this work investigates using artificial intelligence (AI) to mine NPP operator log entry texts for SSC event data. Four AI approaches were explored for identifying these events, including natural language processing (NLP) methods, generative AI, generative AI combined with NLP, and topic modeling. A key challenge addressed with all four approaches is the brevity of operator log entries. Among these four a neural network–based NLP method was shown to be the most promising for this application, achieving F1 scores of 86.0% for shutdowns, 92.2% for startups, and 80.4% for failures on a subject-matter-expert-curated dataset from NPP operator logs, compared to a baseline of 66.6% for a random classifier. This shows that NLP methods can perform better than generative AI. Additionally, the NLP methods combined with generative AI were shown to perform better than generative AI alone. Generative AI was most successful at providing the background information for the NLP methods to use. This work demonstrates the potential to use AI to automate parameter collection from NPP operator log entries and other records.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2017

Impact of parametric uncertainty on estimation of the energy deposition into an irradiated brain tumor

Predictions of the total energy deposited into a brain tumor through X-ray irradiation are notoriously error-prone. We investigate how this predictive uncertainty is affected by uncertainty in both the location of the region occupied by a dose-enhancing iodinated contrast agent and the agent's concentration. This is done within the probabilistic framework in which these uncertain parameters are modeled as random variables. We employ the stochastic collocation (SC) method to estimate statistical moments of the deposited energy in terms of statistical moments of the random inputs, and the global sensitivity analysis (GSA) to quantify the relative importance of uncertainty in these parameters on the overall predictive uncertainty. A nonlinear radiation–diffusion equation dramatically magnifies the coefficient of variation of the uncertain parameters, yielding a large coefficient of variation for the predicted energy deposition. This demonstrates that accurate prediction of the energy deposition requires a proper treatment of even small parametric uncertainty. Our analysis also reveals that SC outperforms standard Monte Carlo, but its relative efficiency decreases as the number of uncertain parameters increases from one to three. A robust GSA ameliorates this problem by reducing this number.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
NASA NTRS1997

A New Approach to Extreme Value Estimation Applicable to a Wide Variety of Random Variables

Designing reliable structures requires an estimate of the maximum and minimum values (i.e., strength and load) that may be encountered in service. Yet designs based on very extreme values (to insure safety) can result in extra material usage and hence, uneconomic systems. In aerospace applications, severe over-design cannot be tolerated making it almost mandatory to design closer to the assumed limits of the design random variables. The issue then is predicting extreme values that are practical, i.e. neither too conservative or non-conservative. Obtaining design values by employing safety factors is well known to often result in overly conservative designs and. Safety factor values have historically been selected rather arbitrarily, often lacking a sound rational basis. To answer the question of how safe a design needs to be has lead design theorists to probabilistic and statistical methods. The so-called three-sigma approach is one such method and has been described as the first step in utilizing information about the data dispersion. However, this method is based on the assumption that the random variable is dispersed symmetrically about the mean and is essentially limited to normally distributed random variables. Use of this method can therefore result in unsafe or overly conservative design allowables if the common assumption of normality is incorrect.

Holland, Frederic A., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1967

Flight computers and sequencers

At present, the most common method of increasing reliability of a system against permanent random component failures is to triplicate the entire system and use voters. This method, though it enhances the reliability, does exact a heavy toll in weight and power consumption which increase by about 225%. In the future, computers will be required to perform complex tasks under adverse conditions on surfaces of planets for long periods of time (6 months or more), without any human intervention. At the same time there will be severe limitations on the weight and power consumption of these computers. For such systems it is obvious that simple triple-redundancy will not do. A more efficient and sophisticated design in redundancy has to evolve. This study has been directed toward that goal. It is understood that the initial design of such a system will be too complex and expensive to be used in a commercial computer; but for a space computer, reduction in weight (without reducing reliability) of every ounce means a great deal.

REDUNDANCY↗
NASA NTRS1977

Modal identification of structures from the responses and random decrement signatures

The theory and application of a method which utilizes the free response of a structure to determine its vibration parameters is described. The time-domain free response is digitized and used in a digital computer program to determine the number of modes excited, the natural frequencies, the damping factors, and the modal vectors. The technique is applied to a complex generalized payload model previously tested using sine sweep method and analyzed by NASTRAN. Ten modes of the payload model are identified. In case free decay response is not readily available, an algorithm is developed to obtain the free responses of a structure from its random responses, due to some unknown or known random input or inputs, using the random decrement technique without changing time correlation between signals. The algorithm is tested using random responses from a generalized payload model and from the space shuttle model.

Brahim, S. R.↗
DOE OSTI2021

From Anderson localization on random regular graphs to many-body localization

Highlights: • Anderson transition from ergodicity to localization on random regular graphs (RRG). • Analytical, pool method, and exact-diagonalization study of correlations on RRG. • Many-body localization (MBL) to ergodicity transition: quantum dots and spin chains. • Dynamical eigenstate correlation functions in RRG and MBL problems. • Anderson localization on RRG as a toy model for MBL. The article reviews the physics of Anderson localization on random regular graphs (RRG) and its connections to many-body localization (MBL) in disordered interacting systems. Properties of eigenstate and energy level correlations in delocalized and localized phases, as well at criticality, are discussed. In the many-body part, models with short-range and power-law interactions are considered, as well as the quantum-dot model representing the limit of the “most long-range” interaction. Central themes – which are common to the RRG and MBL problems – include ergodicity of the delocalized phase, localized character of the critical point, strong finite-size effects, and fractal scaling of eigenstate correlations in the localized phase.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Particulate Fuel Modeling of MC 2 -3 using Iterative Local Spatial Self-shielding Method

We report a new spatial self-shielding method for particulate fuels has been developed based on disadvantage factors and implemented in the MC 2 -3 code. This method named the iterative local spatial self-shielding (ILSS) method considers the shadowing effect of randomly distributed particles on spatial self-shielding in particles through a homogenized composition region added outside the particle of interest at the center. The self-shielded cross sections of the central particle are determined iteratively since they are used in determining the cross sections of the homogenized composition region. The ILSS method was verified for infinite stochastic medium problems of single and multiple types of particles, VHTR unit cell problems, and HTTR assembly problems. The verification test results show that the ILSS method accurately predicts the stochastic particle shadowing effect and reaction rates in particles, whereas the regular array model and the stochastic collision probability method underpredict the particle shadowing effect and overestimate reaction rates in particles.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
NASA NTRS2006

A Nonlinear Reduced Order Method for Prediction of Acoustic Fatigue

The goal of this investigation is to assess the quality of high-cycle-fatigue life estimation via a reduced order method, for structures undergoing geometrically nonlinear random vibrations. Modal reduction is performed with several different suites of basis functions. After numerically solving the reduced order system equations of motion, the physical displacement time history is obtained by an inverse transformation and stresses are recovered. Stress ranges obtained through the rainflow counting procedure are used in a linear damage accumulation method to yield fatigue estimates. Fatigue life estimates obtained using various basis functions in the reduced order method are compared with those obtained from numerical simulation in physical degrees-of-freedom.

Przekop, Adam↗
DOE OSTI2019

Computing three-point correlation function randoms counts without the randoms catalogue

ABSTRACT As we move towards future galaxy surveys, the three-point statistics will be increasingly leveraged to enhance the constraining power of the data on cosmological parameters. An essential part of the three-point function estimation is performing triplet counts of synthetic data points in random catalogues. Since triplet counting algorithms scale at best as $\mathcal {O}(N^2\log N)$ with the number of particles and the random catalogues are typically at least 50 times denser than the data; this tends to be by far the most time-consuming part of the measurements. Here, we present a simple method of computing the necessary triplet counts involving uniform random distributions through simple one-dimensional integrals. The method speeds up the computation of the three-point function by orders of magnitude, eliminating the need for random catalogues, with the simultaneous pair and triplet counting of the data points alone being sufficient.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2012

Construction of Solar-Wind-Like Magnetic Fields

Fluctuations in the solar wind fields tend to not only have velocities and magnetic fields correlated in the sense consistent with Alfven waves traveling from the Sun, but they also have the magnitude of the magnetic field remarkably constant despite their being broadband. This paper provides, for the first time, a method for constructing fields with nearly constant magnetic field, zero divergence, and with any specified power spectrum for the fluctuations of the components of the field. Every wave vector, k, is associated with two polarizations the relative phases of these can be chosen to minimize the variance of the field magnitude while retaining the\random character of the fields. The method is applied to a case with one spatial coordinate that demonstrates good agreement with observed time series and power spectra of the magnetic field in the solar wind, as well as with the distribution of the angles of rapid changes (discontinuities), thus showing a deep connection between two seemingly unrelated issues. It is suggested that using this construction will lead to more realistic simulations of solar wind turbulence and of the propagation of energetic particles.

Roberts, Dana Aaron↗
DOE OSTI2018

Non-stationary Almost Sure Invariance Principle for Hyperbolic Systems with Singularities

We investigate a wide class of two-dimensional hyperbolic systems with singularities, and prove the almost sure invariance principle (ASIP) for the random process generated by sequences of dynamically Hölder observables. The observables could be unbounded, and the process may be non-stationary and need not have linearly growing variances. Our results apply to Anosov diffeomorphisms, Sinai dispersing billiards and their perturbations. The random processes under consideration are related to the fluctuation of Lyapunov exponents, the shrinking target problem, etc.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗