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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 649 records · Page 36
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Probing the origin of the two-component structure of broad-line region by reverberation mapping of an extremely variable quasar

ABSTRACT The physical origins of quasar components, such as the broad-line region (BLR) and dust torus, remain under debate. To gain insights into them, we focused on changing-state quasars (CSQs) which provide a unique perspective through structural changes associated with accretion disc state transitions. We targeted SDSS J125809.31+351943.0, an extremely variable CSQ, to study its central core structure and kinematics. We conducted reverberation mapping with optical spectroscopy to explore the structure of the BLR and estimate the black hole mass. The results from Hβ reverberation mapping indicated a black hole mass of $10^{9.64^{+0.11}_{-0.20}}\rm {M_\odot }$. Additionally, we analysed variations in the optical to X-ray spectral indices, αox, before and after the state transition, to investigate the accretion disc. These variations in αox and the Eddington ratio (from 0.4 per cent to 2.4 per cent) exhibitied behaviour similar to state transitions observed in X-ray binary systems. Spectral analysis of Hβ revealed a predominantly double-peaked profile during dim periods, transitioning to include a single-peaked component as the quasar brightened, suggesting that Hβ contains a mixture of two components. Each of these components has its distinct characteristics: the first is a double-peaked profile that remains stable despite changes in the accretion rate, while the second is a variable single-peaked profile. Using time-lags from reverberation mapping, we estimated the spatial relationships between these BLR components, the accretion disc, and the dust torus. Our results suggest that the BLR consists of two distinct components, each differing in location and origin.

Nagoshi, Shumpei (ORCID:0000000326504322)↗
DOE OSTI2020

Quantum Quench Dynamics–Crossover Phenomena in Nonequilibrium Correlated Quantum Systems (Final Technical Report)

In this project we have developed analytical and numerical tools to study the interplay between interactions, dimensionality, fluctuations and disorder in quantum impurity systems. We have studied the transient dynamics following a quench, i.e. the sudden change in a control variable of the model Hamiltonian, which offers a unique way to examine the system’s spatial, temporal and energetic structure. Specifically, we have investigated how crossover scales, i.e. given by Kondo couplings, are affected by disorder. We have addressed a wide range of phenomena, such as the effects of static disorder on dynamical screening of magnetic impurities, and the influence of a fully time-fluctuating bath environment on the dephasing of system qubits. We have found that many of these systems exhibit fascinating counterintuitive behavior, such as e.g. the possibility of asymptotic unitary time evolution in specifically conditioned system-bath Hamiltonians. From a technical point of view, we have developed a supersymmetric formalism to analyze scaling functions of disordered quantum impurity spin chains, we generalized the strong-coupling real-space renormalization group method to probe the quench dynamics of higher-dimensional quantum impurity systems, and we devised a master equation approach that included the effects of a fully fluctuating environment. This way, we have addressed a very broad spectrum of transient phenomena in quantum impurity systems, with disorder ranging from the quenched to the annealed limit.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2024

First Sagittarius A* Event Horizon Telescope Results. VII. Polarization of the Ring

Abstract The Event Horizon Telescope observed the horizon-scale synchrotron emission region around the Galactic center supermassive black hole, Sagittarius A* (Sgr A*), in 2017. These observations revealed a bright, thick ring morphology with a diameter of 51.8 ± 2.3 μas and modest azimuthal brightness asymmetry, consistent with the expected appearance of a black hole with mass M ≈ 4 × 106 M ⊙. From these observations, we present the first resolved linear and circular polarimetric images of Sgr A*. The linear polarization images demonstrate that the emission ring is highly polarized, exhibiting a prominent spiral electric vector polarization angle pattern with a peak fractional polarization of ∼40% in the western portion of the ring. The circular polarization images feature a modestly (∼5%–10%) polarized dipole structure along the emission ring, with negative circular polarization in the western region and positive circular polarization in the eastern region, although our methods exhibit stronger disagreement than for linear polarization. We analyze the data using multiple independent imaging and modeling methods, each of which is validated using a standardized suite of synthetic data sets. While the detailed spatial distribution of the linear polarization along the ring remains uncertain owing to the intrinsic variability of the source, the spiraling polarization structure is robust to methodological choices. The degree and orientation of the linear polarization provide stringent constraints for the black hole and its surrounding magnetic fields, which we discuss in an accompanying publication.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Using heterogeneous data to identify signatures of dengue outbreaks at fine spatio-temporal scales across Brazil

Dengue virus remains a significant public health challenge in Brazil, and seasonal preparation efforts are hindered by variable intra- and interseasonal dynamics. Here, we present a framework for characterizing weekly dengue activity at the Brazilian mesoregion level from 2010–2016 as time series properties that are relevant to forecasting efforts, focusing on outbreak shape, seasonal timing, and pairwise correlations in magnitude and onset. In addition, we use a combination of 18 satellite remote sensing imagery, weather, clinical, mobility, and census data streams and regression methods to identify a parsimonious set of covariates that explain each time series property. The models explained 54% of the variation in outbreak shape, 38% of seasonal onset, 34% of pairwise correlation in outbreak timing, and 11% of pairwise correlation in outbreak magnitude. Regions that have experienced longer periods of drought sensitivity, as captured by the “normalized burn ratio,” experienced less intense outbreaks, while regions with regular fluctuations in relative humidity had less regular seasonal outbreaks. Both the pairwise correlations in outbreak timing and outbreak trend between mesoresgions were best predicted by distance. Our analysis also revealed the presence of distinct geographic clusters where dengue properties tend to be spatially correlated. Forecasting models aimed at predicting the dynamics of dengue activity need to identify the most salient variables capable of contributing to accurate predictions. Our findings show that successful models may need to leverage distinct variables in different locations and be catered to a specific task, such as predicting outbreak magnitude or timing characteristics, to be useful. This advocates in favor of “adaptive models” rather than “one-size-fits-all” models. The results of this study can be applied to improving spatial hierarchical or target-focused forecasting models of dengue activity across Brazil.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Little vertical and circumferential variations in stem xylem water Δ 2 H and Δ 18 O in three tree species

Vertical and circumferential patterns of xylem water isotope signatures in large trees are rarely characterized but may influence interpretation of water source investigations and soil/xylem water isotope offsets. Furthermore, to examine vertical and circumferential variation in xylem water δ 2 H and δ 18 O, we collected xylem tissue at 5 heights (0, 1, 4, 7 and 10 m) from three replicate trees of three species with contrasting xylem anatomy, two angiosperms (Liquidambar styraciflua and Quercus nigra) and one gymnosperm (Pinus taeda). Concurrently, we also determined δ 2 H and δ 18 O of groundwater, soil water, and recent precipitation. On a different day, we collected circumferential samples at 1 m from the same trees to test for sectorality effects. Water from stem and soil samples were cryogenically extracted and analyzed for δ 2 H and δ 18 O. Mean xylem water δ 2 H and δ 18 O were significantly different between species, both vertically and circumferentially. We did not find significant (p = 0.05) systematic variation in δ 2 H or δ 18 O with height. We found no significant evidence for sectorality effects on δ 2 H, δ 18 O. Variances of vertical synoptic xylem water δ 2 H or δ 18 O were similar between species, 7.2–10.4‰ for δ 2 H and 0.58–0.81‰ for δ 18 O. Circumferential variances were also similar between species, 4.0–6.0 for δ 2 H and 0.37–0.44 for δ 18 O. A mixing model showed that sweetgum, water oak and loblolly pine, were drawing most of their water from deep soil from 45 to 190 cm (84.7, 68.4 and 53.2%, respectively) however, soil water-excess values indicate δ 2 H fractionation effects on these estimates. Dual isotope mixing model evaluation with single and multiple sample configurations showed that source water estimates were not affected by within tree variability of xylem water signatures. Xylem water δ 2 H and δ 18 O variability with height or circumference, was 3.2 and 2.7 times less than between tree variation because of transient temporal and spatial processes and is, therefore, not likely to affect interpretations of water sourcing in these three species.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Wintertime Arctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation and their impacts on the Northern Hemisphere climate in E3SM

The characteristics of the wintertime Arctic Oscillation (AO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and their impacts on climate variability over the Northern Hemisphere are important metrics for evaluating a climate system model. Observational analyses reveal that the horizontal and vertical structures in the AO and NAO exhibit a meridional dipole and a large-scale barotropic pattern between the Arctic and mid-latitudes. Historical model simulations from the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM-HIST) are used to identify how well it captures these major climate modes. It is found that the simulated AO and NAO modes have spatial structures similar to the observed features. In addition, the observed frequency bands in the AO and NAO-related time variability are captured well in the E3SM-HIST simulation. Associated with the positive phase in wintertime AO and NAO, zonal flow and warm advection in mid-latitude continents are enhanced, along with stronger cold flow from enhanced northerly winds over high latitudes. These features are linked to the atmospheric circulation pattern reflected by lower SLP anomalies over the Arctic and higher SLP anomalies over the mid-latitudes. In E3SM-HIST, these spatial associations and main structural features are analogous to those in observations. In the time-height evolution related to winter AO and NAO modes, it can also be seen that the simulations reproduce the downward propagating patterns in observations. Nevertheless, the vertical structures associated with AO and NAO in E3SM-HIST exhibit substantial biases in the lower stratosphere. The cause of these stratospheric biases is investigated using the strength of climatological stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) and wave activity fluxes. The results herein suggest that E3SM-HIST has a reasonable skill in reproducing the observed characteristics related to the winter AO and NAO, although there exist systematic biases in the associated climate variability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Modeling Si/SiGe quantum dot variability induced by interface disorder reconstructed from multiperspective microscopy

SiGe heteroepitaxial growth yields pristine host material for quantum dot qubits, but residual interface disorder can lead to qubit-to-qubit variability that might pose an obstacle to reliable SiGe-based quantum computing. By convolving data from scanning tunneling microscopy and high-angle annular dark field scanning transmission electron microscopy, we reconstruct 3D interfacial atomic structure and employ an atomistic multi-valley effective mass theory to quantify qubit spectral variability. The results indicate (1) appreciable valley splitting (VS) variability of ~50% owing to alloy disorder and (2) roughness-induced double-dot detuning bias energy variability of order 1–10 meV depending on well thickness. For measured intermixing, atomic steps have negligible influence on VS, and uncorrelated roughness causes spatially fluctuating energy biases in double-dot detunings potentially incorrectly attributed to charge disorder. Our approach yields atomic structure spanning orders of magnitude larger areas than post-growth microscopy or tomography alone, enabling more holistic predictions of disorder-induced qubit variability.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2021

Removing the Effects of Tropical Dynamics from North Pacific Climate Variability

Teleconnections from the Tropics energize variations of the North Pacific climate, but detailed diagnosis of this relationship has proven difficult. Simple univariate methods, such as regression on El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indices, may be inadequate since the key dynamical processes involved -- including ENSO diversity in the Tropics, re-emergence of mixed layer thermal anomalies, and oceanic Rossby wave propagation in the North Pacific -- have a variety of overlapping spatial and temporal scales. Here we use a multivariate Linear Inverse Model to quantify tropical and extra-tropical multi-scale dynamical contributions to North Pacific variability, in both observations and CMIP6 models. In observations, we find that the Tropics are responsible for almost half of the seasonal variance, and almost three quarters of the decadal variance, along the North American coast and within the subtropical front region northwest of Hawaii. SST anomalies that are generated by local dynamics within the Northeast Pacific have much shorter time scales, consistent with transient weather forcing by Aleutian low anomalies. Variability within the Kuroshio-Oyashio Extension (KOE) region is considerably less impacted by the Tropics, on all time scales. Consequently, without tropical forcing the dominant pattern of North Pacific variability would be a KOE pattern, rather than the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). In contrast to observations, most CMIP6 historical simulations produce North Pacific variability that maximizes in the KOE region, with amplitude significantly higher than observed. Correspondingly, the simulated North Pacific in all CMIP6 models is shown to be relatively insensitive to the Tropics, with a dominant spatial pattern generally resembling the KOE pattern, not the PDO.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

How do Hydrological Variability and Human Activities Control the Spatiotemporal Changes of Riverine Nitrogen Export in the Upper Mississippi River Basin?

Excessive nitrogen export from agricultural watersheds remains a critical water quality challenge, with the Upper Mississippi River Basin (UMRB) significantly contributing to downstream eutrophication and hypoxia in the Gulf. This study investigates the spatiotemporal dynamics of riverine nitrate plus nitrite (NO 3 − + NO 2 − -N) export across the UMRB at high spatial resolution (12-digit Hydrologic Unit Codes or HUC12 subwatershed scale) during 2001−2020 and quantifies the effects of anthropogenic activities and hydrological variability on riverine NO 3 − + NO 2 − -N export changes in the region between 2001−2005 and 2016−2020. Our results revealed hotspots of substantial increases in NO 3 − + NO 2 − -N yields across the UMRB, with distinct regional patterns in driving factors. Over the entire UMRB, NO 3 − + NO 2 − -N yields increased by 9.7 kg/ha/yr on average from 2001−2005 to 2016−2020, with anthropogenic activities contributing 4.8 kg/ha/yr and hydrological variability contributing 4.9 kg/ha/yr. The northern and western UMRB had combined influences from both anthropogenic activities and hydrological variability, while the east-central regions had predominantly hydrologically driven changes. Agricultural sources, including fertilizer, manure, and biological nitrogen fixation, collectively contributed over 80% of NO 3 − + NO 2 − -N loading throughout the basin. Furthermore, this framework for disentangling human and hydrological impacts provides critical insights for developing effective and targeted watershed management strategies to reduce nutrient losses and improve water quality.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

A data-driven global soil heterotrophic respiration dataset and the drivers of its inter-annual variability

Soil heterotrophic respiration (SHR), one of the primary carbon fluxes from terrestrial ecosystems to the atmosphere, is important for carbon-climate feedbacks because of its sensitivity to available litter and soil carbon, climatic conditions, and nutrient availability. However, until recently limited SHR data were available, and most published global SHR estimates have either a short time span, coarse spatial resolution, or reply on overly-simple model formulations. To better understand and quantify the global distribution of SHR and its sensitivity to climate variability, we produced a new global SHR dataset using Random Forest algorithms, up-scaling 455 point data from the Global Soil Respiration Database (SRDB 4.0) with gridded fields of climatic, edaphic and productivity as explanatory variables. We estimated a global total SHR of 46.8 Pg C yr-1 over 1985-2013 (95% confidence interval: 38.6-56.3 Pg C yr-1), with a significant increasing trend of 0.03 Pg C yr-2 during this period. We found that the choice of soil moisture datasets contributes more to the difference among these data-driven SHR members rather than that of productivity, temperature and precipitation data sources. We also analyzed the influence of climatic variables on the inter-annual variability (IAV) of our SHR product. Water availability was the dominant driver of IAV at global scales, although the inferred sensitivity depends on the choice of the soil moisture gridded dataset. At the ecosystem scale, temperature strongly controls the IAV of SHR in tropical forests, while water availability dominates in extra-tropical forest and semi-arid regions. Our machine-learning gridded SHR dataset and outputs from process-based land surface models (TRENDYv6) show agreement for a strong association between water variability and SHR IAV at the global scale, but the two approaches lead to different temporal trend globally and different controlling variables for IAV at the ecosystem scale. Our study provides evidence for the pervasive and important role of water availability in driving SHR, indicating both a direct effect limiting decomposition rates and an indirect effect through the amount of fresh organic matter made available to SHR from productivity. In consideration of potential limitations and uncertainties remaining in our data-driven SHR datasets, we call for a more scientifically designed observation network for SHR, more observation data compilation, and increased use of deep learning methods making maximum use of observation data in hand. This will benefit process-based models, and improve our understanding of SHR response to future anomalous environmental conditions.

Yao, Yitong↗
DOE OSTI2021

Predictability of Seawater DMS During the North Atlantic Aerosol and Marine Ecosystem Study (NAAMES)

This work presents an overview of a unique set of surface ocean dimethylsulfide (DMS) measurements from four shipboard field campaigns conducted during the North Atlantic Aerosol and Marine Ecosystem Study (NAAMES) project. Variations in surface seawater DMS are discussed in relation to biological and physical observations. Results are considered at a range of timescales (seasons to days) and spatial scales (regional to sub-mesoscale). Elevated DMS concentrations are generally associated with greater biological productivity, although chlorophyll a (Chl) only explains a small fraction of the DMS variability (15%). Physical factors that determine the location of oceanic temperature fronts and depth of vertical mixing have an important influence on seawater DMS concentrations during all seasons. The interplay of biomass and physics influences DMS concentrations at regional/seasonal scales and at smaller spatial and shorter temporal scales. Seawater DMS measurements are compared with the global seawater DMS climatology and predictions made using a recently published algorithm and by a neural network model. The climatology is successful at capturing the seasonal progression in average seawater DMS, but does not reproduce the shorter spatial/temporal scale variability. The input terms common to the algorithm and neural network approaches are biological (Chl) and physical (mixed layer depth, photosynthetically active radiation, seawater temperature). Both models predict the seasonal North Atlantic average seawater DMS trends better than the climatology. However, DMS concentrations tend to be under-predicted and the episodic occurrence of higher DMS concentrations is poorly predicted. The choice of climatological seawater DMS product makes a substantial impact on the estimated DMS flux into the North Atlantic atmosphere. These results suggest that additional input terms are needed to improve the predictive capability of current state-of-the-art approaches to estimating seawater DMS.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Distribution of genetic variation underlying adult migration timing in steelhead of the Columbia River basin

Abstract Fish migrations are energetically costly, especially when moving between freshwater and saltwater, but are a viable strategy for Pacific salmon and trout ( Oncorhynchus spp.) due to the advantageous resources available at various life stages. Anadromous steelhead ( O. mykiss ) migrate vast distances and exhibit variation for adult migration phenotypes that have a genetic basis at candidate genes known as greb1L and rock1 . We examined the distribution of genetic variation at 13 candidate markers spanning greb1L , intergenic, and rock1 regions versus 226 neutral markers for 113 populations ( n = 9,471) of steelhead from inland and coastal lineages in the Columbia River. Patterns of population structure with neutral markers reflected genetic similarity by geographic region as demonstrated in previous studies, but candidate markers clustered populations by genetic variation associated with adult migration timing. Mature alleles for late migration had the highest frequency overall in steelhead populations throughout the Columbia River, with only 9 of 113 populations that had a higher frequency of premature alleles for early migration. While a single haplotype block was evident for the coastal lineage, we identified multiple haplotype blocks for the inland lineage. The inland lineage had one haplotype block that corresponded to candidate markers within the greb1L gene and immediately upstream in the intergenic region, and the second block only contained candidate markers from the intergenic region. Haplotype frequencies had similar patterns of geographic distribution as single markers, but there were distinct differences in frequency between the two haplotype blocks for the inland lineage. This may represent multiple recombination events that differed between lineages where phenotypic differences exist between freshwater entry versus arrival timing as indicated by Micheletti et al. (2018a). Redundancy analyses were used to model environmental effects on allelic frequencies of candidate markers, and significant variables were migration distance, temperature, isothermality, and annual precipitation. This study improves our understanding of the spatial distribution of genetic variation underlying adult migration timing in steelhead as well as associated environmental factors and has direct conservation and management implications.

Collins, Erin E.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Direct Correlation of Charge Carrier Transport to Local Crystal Quality in Lead Halide Perovskites

Although solution processing methods provide an attractive route toward development of low-cost functional materials, these accessible fabrication approaches can engender high concentrations of microscopic structural defects that are detrimental to performance. In lead halide perovskites, structural disorder derived from solution processing has been implicated as an important determiner of photophysical properties. However, a direct correlation between the functional properties of these materials and the local crystal structure in which non-equilibrium states evolve has remained elusive, in part because structural heterogeneities occur on length scales that defy conventional characterization techniques. To address this knowledge gap, in this work we have combined ultrafast pump–probe microscopy and electron backscattering diffraction to directly correlate charge carrier transport with the local diffraction pattern contrast, an indicator of crystal quality. Spatial correlation of these measurements strongly suggests that even on individual single crystal CsPbBr3 domains, microscopic variability in the crystal quality profoundly impacts the efficiency of charge carrier transport.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

A hydrological simulation dataset of the Upper Colorado River Basin from 1983 to 2019

Abstract This article presents a hydrological reconstruction of the Upper Colorado River Basin with an hourly temporal resolution, and 1-km spatial resolution from October 1982 to September 2019. The validated dataset includes a suite of hydrologic variables including streamflow, water table depth, snow water equivalent (SWE) and evapotranspiration (ET) simulated by an integrated hydrological model, ParFlow-CLM. The dataset was validated over the period with a combination of point observations and remotely sensed products. These datasets provide a long-term, natural-flow, simulation for one of the most over-allocated basins in the world.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Electron kinetics in a positive column of AC discharges in a dynamic regime

Abstract We have performed hybrid kinetic-fluid simulations of a positive column in alternating current (AC) argon discharges over a range of driving frequencies f and gas pressure p for the conditions when the spatial nonlocality of the electron energy distribution function (EEDF) is substantial. Our simulations confirmed that the most efficient conditions of plasma maintenance are observed in the dynamic regime when time modulations of mean electron energy (temperature) are substantial. The minimal values of the root mean square electric field and the electron temperature have been observed at f/p values of about 3 kHz Torr −1 in a tube of radius R = 1 cm. The ionization rate and plasma density reached maximal values under these conditions. The numerical solution of a kinetic equation allowed accounting for the kinetic effects associated with spatial and temporal nonlocality of the EEDF. Using the kinetic energy of electrons as an independent variable, we solved an anisotropic tensor diffusion equation in phase space. We clarified the role of different flux components during electron diffusion in phase space over surfaces of constant total energy. We have shown that the kinetic theory uncovers a more exciting and rich physics than the classical ambipolar diffusion (Schottky) model. Non-monotonic radial distributions of excitation rates, metastable densities, and plasma density have been observed in our simulations at pR > 6 Torr cm. The predicted off-axis plasma density peak in the dynamic regime has never been observed in experiments so far. We hope our results stimulate further experimental studies of the AC positive column. The kinetic analysis could help uncover new physics even for such a well-known plasma object as a positive column in noble gases.

Physics↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Predictor-Corrector Strategy for Adaptivity in Dynamical Low-Rank Approximations

Here, in this paper, we present a predictor-corrector strategy for constructing rank-adaptive, dynamical low-rank approximations (DLRAs) of matrix-valued ODE systems. The strategy is a compromise between (i) low-rank step-truncation approaches that alternately evolve and compress solutions and (ii) strict DLRA approaches that augment the low-rank manifold using subspaces generated locally in time by the DLRA integrator. The strategy is based on an analysis of the error between a forward temporal update into the ambient full-rank space, which is typically computed in a step-truncation approach before recompressing, and the standard DLRA update, which is forced to live in a low-rank manifold. We use this error, without requiring its full-rank representation, to correct the DLRA solution. A key ingredient for maintaining a low-rank representation of the error is a randomized SVD, which introduces some degree of stochastic variability into the implementation. The strategy is formulated and implemented in the context of discontinuous Galerkin spatial discretizations of PDEs and applied to several versions of DLRA methods found in the literature as well as a new variant. Numerical experiments comparing the predictor-corrector strategy to other methods demonstrate robustness to overcome shortcomings of step truncation or strict DLRA approaches: The former may require more memory than is strictly needed, while the latter may miss transients solution features that cannot be recovered. The effect of randomization, tolerances, and other implementation parameters is also explored.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

How Well Can CMIP6 Models Represent the Observed Influence of the Pacific and Indian Oceans on the Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall?

This study evaluates the ability of CMIP6 climate models to simulate the observed effects of tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) on Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) variability. Using observational data and the large ensemble historical simulations of seven CMIP6 models from 1950 to 2014, we applied a cyclostationary linear inverse model (CS-LIM) to isolate the impacts of tropical Pacific SSTAs, Indian Ocean SSTAs and their interaction on the interannual variability of ISMR. Overall, CMIP6 models well reproduced the observed enhanced (reduced) ISMR variability from Pacific SSTAs (Indian Ocean SSTAs and the Indo-Pacific interaction), but with varying spatial patterns and magnitudes. While CESM2 and E3SM-2-0 showed the best agreement with observations for the effects of Pacific SSTAs and the Indo-Pacific interaction, respectively, CMIP6 models showed mixed results for the impacts from Indian Ocean SSTAs. Composite analysis of ISMR anomalies during the developing phases of pure and co-occurring El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) events revealed that the impacts from Pacific SSTAs were captured reasonably well by E3SM-2-0, CESM2, MIROC6, and MPI-ESM1-2-LR, while E3SM-2-0 also showed the best agreement with observations for the effects from the Indo-Pacific interaction. However, all models showed substantial biases in simulating the Indian Ocean SSTA impacts on ISMR, especially for pure El Niño events. Overall, this study provides new insights into how individual CMIP6 models simulate the isolated impacts from the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans, which has important applications for improving ISMR predictions and interpreting ISMR future projections.

monsoon↗
DOE OSTI2021

Retrospective Analysis and Bayesian Model Averaging of CMIP6 Precipitation in the Nile River Basin

The Nile River basin is one of the global hotspots vulnerable to climate change impacts because of a fast-growing population and geopolitical tensions. Previous studies demonstrated that general circulation models (GCMs) frequently show disagreement in the sign of change in annual precipitation projections. Here, we first evaluate the performance of 20 GCMs from phase six of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) benchmarked against a high-spatial-resolution precipitation dataset dating back to 1983 from Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information Using Artificial Neural Networks–Climate Data Record (PERSIANN-CDR). Next, a Bayesian model averaging (BMA) approach is adopted to derive probability distributions of precipitation projections in the Nile basin. Retrospective analysis reveals that most GCMs exhibit considerable (up to 64% of mean annual precipitation) and spatially heterogenous bias in simulating annual precipitation. Moreover, it is shown that all GCMs underestimate interannual variability; thus, the ensemble range is underdispersive and is a poor indicator of uncertainty. The projected changes from the BMA model show that the value and sign of change vary considerably across the Nile basin. Specifically, it is found that projected changes in the two headwaters basins, namely, the Blue Nile and Upper White Nile, are 0.03% and -1.65%, respectively; both are statistically insignificant at α = 0.05. The uncertainty range estimated from the BMA model shows that the probability of a precipitation decrease is much higher in the Upper White Nile basin whereas projected change in the Blue Nile is highly uncertain both in magnitude and sign of change.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗