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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 649 records · Page 36
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Efficient high-fidelity TRISO statistical failure analysis using Bison: Applications to AGR-2 irradiation testing

The ability of tri-structural isotropic (TRISO) fuel to contain fission products is largely dictated by the quality of the manufacturing process, since most of the fission product release is expected to occur due to coating layer failure in a small number of particles containing defects. The Bison fuel performance code has capabilities to predict failure in individual particles, accounting for the presence of defects, and to apply statistical analysis methods to compute the probability of failure in a set of fuel particles. Bison has recently undergone significant development both to improve its physical representations of fuel particle behavior and to improve the efficiency of its statistical failure calculations. Physical model improvements include new capabilities to account for the pressure generated by fission gases on inner pyrolytic carbon (IPyC) crack surfaces and to use local material coordinate orientation to accurately incorporate the anisotropy in the material properties in aspherical particles. To improve statistical modeling efficiency, a direct integration approach which involves directly integrating the failure probability function associated with statistically varying parameters has been developed. The direct integration approach is much more efficient than the Monte Carlo (MC) schemes commonly employed, and allows Bison to directly run high-dimensional fuel performance models, which improves the accuracy of failure probability calculations. Finally, a set of benchmark problems is considered here to compare the MC and direct integration approaches, and a statistical failure analysis of compacts in the Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR)-2 experiments is performed using the direct integration approach.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS1998

Prognostic significance of electrical alternans versus signal averaged electrocardiography in predicting the outcome of electrophysiological testing and arrhythmia-free survival

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the accuracy of signal averaged electrocardiography (SAECG) and measurement of microvolt level T wave alternans as predictors of susceptibility to ventricular arrhythmias. DESIGN: Analysis of new data from a previously published prospective investigation. SETTING: Electrophysiology laboratory of a major referral hospital. PATIENTS AND INTERVENTIONS: 43 patients, not on class I or class III antiarrhythmic drug treatment, undergoing invasive electrophysiological testing had SAECG and T wave alternans measurements. The SAECG was considered positive in the presence of one (SAECG-I) or two (SAECG-II) of three standard criteria. T wave alternans was considered positive if the alternans ratio exceeded 3.0. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Inducibility of sustained ventricular tachycardia or fibrillation during electrophysiological testing, and 20 month arrhythmia-free survival. RESULTS: The accuracy of T wave alternans in predicting the outcome of electrophysiological testing was 84% (p < 0.0001). Neither SAECG-I (accuracy 60%; p < 0.29) nor SAECG-II (accuracy 71%; p < 0.10) was a statistically significant predictor of electrophysiological testing. SAECG, T wave alternans, electrophysiological testing, and follow up data were available in 36 patients while not on class I or III antiarrhythmic agents. The accuracy of T wave alternans in predicting the outcome of arrhythmia-free survival was 86% (p < 0.030). Neither SAECG-I (accuracy 65%; p < 0.21) nor SAECG-II (accuracy 71%; p < 0.48) was a statistically significant predictor of arrhythmia-free survival. CONCLUSIONS: T wave alternans was a highly significant predictor of the outcome of electrophysiological testing and arrhythmia-free survival, while SAECG was not a statistically significant predictor. Although these results need to be confirmed in prospective clinical studies, they suggest that T wave alternans may serve as a non-invasive probe for screening high risk populations for malignant ventricular arrhythmias.

Non-NASA Center↗
DOE OSTI2024

An Investigation of LES Wall Modeling for Rayleigh–Bénard Convection via Interpretable and Physics-Aware Feedforward Neural Networks with DNS

Abstract The traditional approach of using the Monin–Obukhov similarity theory (MOST) to model near-surface processes in large-eddy simulations (LESs) can lead to significant errors in natural convection. In this study, we propose an alternative approach based on feedforward neural networks (FNNs) trained on output from direct numerical simulation (DNS). To evaluate the performance, we conduct both a priori and a posteriori tests. In the a priori (offline) tests, we compare the statistics of the surface shear stress and heat flux, computed from filtered DNS input variables, to the stress and flux obtained from the filtered DNS. Additionally, we investigate the importance of various input features using the Shapley additive explanations value and the conditional average of the filter grid cells. In the a posteriori (online) tests, we implement the trained models in the System for Atmospheric Modeling (SAM) LES and compare the LES-generated surface shear stress and heat flux with those in the DNS. Our findings reveal that vertical velocity, a traditionally overlooked flow quantity, is one of the most important input features for determining the wall fluxes. Increasing the number of input features improves the a priori test results but does not always improve the model performance in the a posteriori tests because of the differences in input variables between the LES and DNS. Last, we show that physics-aware FNN models trained with logarithmic and scaled parameters can well extrapolate to more intense convection scenarios than in the training dataset, whereas those trained with primitive flow quantities cannot. Significance Statement The traditional near-surface turbulence model, based on a shear-dominated boundary layer flow, does not represent near-surface turbulence in natural convection. Using a feedforward neural network (FNN), we can construct a more accurate model that better represents the near-surface turbulence in various flows and reveals previously overlooked controlling factors and process interactions. Our study shows that the FNN-generated models outperform the traditional model and highlight the importance of the near-surface vertical velocity. Furthermore, the physics-aware FNN models exhibit the potential to extrapolate to convective flows of various intensities beyond the range of the training dataset, suggesting their broader applicability for more accurate modeling of near-surface turbulence.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Test–retest reliability for a social discounting of personal information task

Increasing cybercrime rates means identifying potential victims is critically important. Social discounting tasks show that individuals share less personally identifying information as social distance increases. However, the test–retest reliability and uniqueness of this measure is unclear. The current study assessed social discounting for personally identifying information (SDPII), delay discounting, risk taking, and personality at two measurement waves 30 days apart for 64 undergraduate students. Test–retest reliability was statistically significant for the SDPII and all other measures, replicating previous studies. SDPII rates were not significantly correlated with other measures during both measurement waves, showing discriminant validity. SDPII rates were lower than those reported in a previous study but were still well described by a hyperbolic discounting function, suggesting replicability across studies. Furthermore, the high test–retest reliability, uniqueness, and replicability of the SDPII suggests that it may quantitatively identify cybercrime victimization. Future research should test which measure or combination of measures can accurately predict scam and cybercrime victimization to inform data-based interventions.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
NASA NTRS1977

Shuttle payload minimum cost vibroacoustic tests

This paper is directed toward the development of the methodology needed to evaluate cost effective vibroacoustic test plans for Shuttle Spacelab payloads. Statistical decision theory is used to quantitatively evaluate seven alternate test plans by deriving optimum test levels and the expected cost for each multiple mission payload considered. The results indicate that minimum costs can vary by as much as $6 million for the various test plans. The lowest cost approach eliminates component testing and maintains flight vibration reliability by performing subassembly tests at a relatively high acoustic level. Test plans using system testing or combinations of component and assembly level testing are attractive alternatives. Component testing alone is shown not to be cost effective.

Stahle, C. V.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Alternative Test Methods for Electronic Parts

It is common practice within NASA to test electronic parts at the manufacturing lot level to demonstrate, statistically, that parts from the lot tested will not fail in service using generic application conditions. The test methods and the generic application conditions used have been developed over the years through cooperation between NASA, DoD, and industry in order to establish a common set of standard practices. These common practices, found in MIL-STD-883, MIL-STD-750, military part specifications, EEE-INST-002, and other guidelines are preferred because they are considered to be effective and repeatable and their results are usually straightforward to interpret. These practices can sometimes be unavailable to some NASA projects due to special application conditions that must be addressed, such as schedule constraints, cost constraints, logistical constraints, or advances in the technology that make the historical standards an inappropriate choice for establishing part performance and reliability. Alternate methods have begun to emerge and to be used by NASA programs to test parts individually or as part of a system, especially when standard lot tests cannot be applied. Four alternate screening methods will be discussed in this paper: Highly accelerated life test (HALT), forward voltage drop tests for evaluating wire-bond integrity, burn-in options during or after highly accelerated stress test (HAST), and board-level qualification.

Plante, Jeannette↗
NASA NTRS1995

The Role of Analysis and Testing in the Service Life Assessment of Ion Engines

Experience from tests and flights and engineering analysis represent the two sources of information on which to base conclusions on the reliability or failure risk of aerospace flight systems. It is rarely feasible to establish high reliability at high confidence by testing aerospace flight systems or components. The limitations of testing in evaluating failure risk are discussed and an alternate statistical approach which relies on both test experience and analysis to quantitatively assess reliability is outlined. The implementation of this methodology in the service life assessment of ion thrusters is discussed and examples of failure modes being addressed in the NASA Solar Electric Propulsion Technology Application Readiness (NSTAR) program are given.

Ion↗
DOE OSTI2021

Search for Multi-flare Neutrino Emissions in 10 yr of IceCube Data from a Catalog of Sources

A recent time-integrated analysis of a catalog of 110 candidate neutrino sources revealed a cumulative neutrino excess in the data collected by IceCube between 2008 April 6 and 2018 July 10. This excess, inconsistent with the background hypothesis in the Northern Hemisphere at the 3.3σ level, is associated with four sources: NGC 1068, TXS 0506+056, PKS 1424+240, and GB6 J1542+6129. Here, this Letter presents two time-dependent neutrino emission searches on the same data sample and catalog: a point-source search that looks for the most significant time-dependent source of the catalog by combining space, energy, and time information of the events, and a population test based on binomial statistics that looks for a cumulative time-dependent neutrino excess from a subset of sources. Compared to previous time-dependent searches, these analyses enable a feature to possibly find multiple flares from a single direction with an unbinned maximum-likelihood method. M87 is found to be the most significant time-dependent source of this catalog at the level of 1.7σ post-trial, and TXS 0506+056 is the only source for which two flares are reconstructed. The binomial test reports a cumulative time-dependent neutrino excess in the Northern Hemisphere at the level of 3.0σ associated with four sources: M87, TXS 0506+056, GB6 J1542+6129, and NGC 1068.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2009

Bayes Analysis and Reliability Implications of Stress-Rupture Testing a Kevlar/Epoxy COPV Using Temperature and Pressure Acceleration

Composite Overwrapped Pressure Vessels (COPVs) that have survived a long service time under pressure generally must be recertified before service is extended. Flight certification is dependent on the reliability analysis to quantify the risk of stress rupture failure in existing flight vessels. Full certification of this reliability model would require a statistically significant number of lifetime tests to be performed and is impractical given the cost and limited flight hardware for certification testing purposes. One approach to confirm the reliability model is to perform a stress rupture test on a flight COPV. Currently, testing of such a Kevlar49 (Dupont)/epoxy COPV is nearing completion. The present paper focuses on a Bayesian statistical approach to analyze the possible failure time results of this test and to assess the implications in choosing between possible model parameter values that in the past have had significant uncertainty. The key uncertain parameters in this case are the actual fiber stress ratio at operating pressure, and the Weibull shape parameter for lifetime; the former has been uncertain due to ambiguities in interpreting the original and a duplicate burst test. The latter has been uncertain due to major differences between COPVs in the database and the actual COPVs in service. Any information obtained that clarifies and eliminates uncertainty in these parameters will have a major effect on the predicted reliability of the service COPVs going forward. The key result is that the longer the vessel survives, the more likely the more optimistic stress ratio model is correct. At the time of writing, the resulting effect on predicted future reliability is dramatic, increasing it by about one "nine," that is, reducing the predicted probability of failure by an order of magnitude. However, testing one vessel does not change the uncertainty on the Weibull shape parameter for lifetime since testing several vessels would be necessary.

Phoenix, S. Leigh↗
NASA NTRS1984

Reaction times to weak test lights

Maloney and Wandell (1984) describe a model of the response of a single visual channel to weak test lights. The initial channel response is a linearly filtered version of the stimulus. The filter output is randomly sampled over time. Each time a sample occurs there is some probability increasing with the magnitude of the sampled response - that a discrete detection event is generated. Maloney and Wandell derive the statistics of the detection events. In this paper a test is conducted of the hypothesis that the reaction time responses to the presence of a weak test light are initiated at the first detection event. This makes it possible to extend the application of the model to lights that are slightly above threshold, but still within the linear operating range of the visual system. A parameter-free prediction of the model proposed by Maloney and Wandell for lights detected by this statistic is tested. The data are in agreement with the prediction.

Wandell, B. A.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Monte Carlo Bayesian Inference on a Statistical Model of Sub-gridcolumn Moisture Variability Using High-resolution Cloud Observations : Sensitivity Tests and Results - Part II

Part I presented a Monte Carlo Bayesian method for constraining a complex statistical model of GCM sub-gridcolumn moisture variability using high-resolution MODIS cloud data, thereby permitting large-scale model parameter estimation and cloud data assimilation. This part performs some basic testing of this new approach, verifying that it does indeed significantly reduce mean and standard deviation biases with respect to the assimilated MODIS cloud optical depth, brightness temperature and cloud top pressure, and that it also improves the simulated rotational-Ramman scattering cloud optical centroid pressure (OCP) against independent (non-assimilated) retrievals from the OMI instrument. Of particular interest, the Monte Carlo method does show skill in the especially difficult case where the background state is clear but cloudy observations exist. In traditional linearized data assimilation methods, a subsaturated background cannot produce clouds via any infinitesimal equilibrium perturbation, but the Monte Carlo approach allows finite jumps into regions of non-zero cloud probability. In the example provided, the method is able to restore marine stratocumulus near the Californian coast where the background state has a clear swath. This paper also examines a number of algorithmic and physical sensitivities of the new method and provides guidance for its cost-effective implementation. One obvious difficulty for the method, and other cloud data assimilation methods as well, is the lack of information content in the cloud observables on cloud vertical structure, beyond cloud top pressure and optical thickness, thus necessitating strong dependence on the background vertical moisture structure. It is found that a simple flow-dependent correlation modification due to Riishojgaard (1998) provides some help in this respect, by better honoring inversion structures in the background state.

Monte Carlo Bayesian inference↗
NASA NTRS1999

Predicting Slag Generation in Sub-Scale Test Motors Using a Neural Network

Generation of slag (aluminum oxide) is an important issue for the Reusable Solid Rocket Motor (RSRM). Thiokol performed testing to quantify the relationship between raw material variations and slag generation in solid propellants by testing sub-scale motors cast with propellant containing various combinations of aluminum fuel and ammonium perchlorate (AP) oxidizer particle sizes. The test data were analyzed using statistical methods and an artificial neural network. This paper primarily addresses the neural network results with some comparisons to the statistical results. The neural network showed that the particle sizes of both the aluminum and unground AP have a measurable effect on slag generation. The neural network analysis showed that aluminum particle size is the dominant driver in slag generation, about 40% more influential than AP. The network predictions of the amount of slag produced during firing of sub-scale motors were 16% better than the predictions of a statistically derived empirical equation. Another neural network successfully characterized the slag generated during full-scale motor tests. The success is attributable to the ability of neural networks to characterize multiple complex factors including interactions that affect slag generation.

Wiesenberg, Brent↗
DOE OSTI2019

Waste Chemistry Envelope for the Determination of Pitting Corrosion Susceptibility - 19554

Liquid radioactive wastes at the Hanford and Savannah River sites are stored in large underground carbon steel tanks. The high-level wastes are processed in several of the tanks and then transferred by piping to other site facilities for further processing before they are stabilized in a vitrified or grout waste form. Based on waste removal and processing schedules, many of the tanks, will be required to be in service for times exceeding the initial intended life (i.e., greater than 60 years). Until the waste is removed from storage, transferred, and processed, the materials and structures of the tanks must maintain a confinement function by providing a barrier to the environment and by maintaining acceptable structural stability during design basis events, which include loadings from both normal service and abnormal (e.g., earthquake) conditions. Administrative programs are in place to mitigate potential corrosion mechanisms and thereby maintain the structural and leak integrity functions of these waste tanks throughout their intended service life. Waste chemistry and temperature control are the means by which corrosion degradation of the waste tanks is minimized. Chemistry controls are based on in-situ coupon tests, waste tank experience, and laboratory testing. These requirements comprise the technical standards for corrosion control. The standards are utilized then as guidelines for operational procedures. The present waste chemistry controls for the Hanford DSTs were established in the 1980's in response to tank failures caused by stress corrosion cracking (SCC) at the DOE Savannah River Site (SRS). Portions of the SRS chemistry limits, which were developed at the Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) were coupled with corrosion testing results from Pacific Northwest National Laboratories (PNNL) and adopted for corrosion control of the double-shell tank (DST) waste at the Hanford Site. Since that time, the temperatures of the waste in the DSTs have decreased to less than 50 deg. C in most cases as the radioactive material has decayed. As a consequence, new chemistry controls were formulated for SCC in 2010. This testing however, did not address that potential for pitting in the supernatant and at the liquid-air interface. Indeed, initial tests indicated that the inhibitor requirements for SCC would be insufficient for the prevention of pitting. In addition to lower waste temperatures, future retrieval and process changes may impact the DST waste chemistry. Initial projections suggest that the waste chemistry of the DSTs may shift to a broader range of pH and higher aggressive anion concentrations (e.g., chloride, sulfate, etc.) than the wastes that are presently stored. Additionally, processes within the vitrification facility may result in streams that are returned to the tank farm for evaporation. These streams may also contain high concentrations of aggressive species. SRNL investigated the propensity for pitting of the carbon steel waste tanks at current and projected DST waste chemistries. A statistically designed series of tests provided a pitting factor that relates the ratio of the inhibitor species to the aggressive species and the probability of observing pitting. An acceptable pitting factor was determined and was utilized for the development of a new chemistry envelope. The new chemistry envelope was compared to the envelope that was established for SCC and was determined to be bounding. Validation of the new chemistry envelope was performed via model simulations and comparison with historical experimental results and approaches to establishing chemistry envelopes. The new chemistry envelope will eventually be part of an overall assessment of the condition of the tanks and any changes made to the overall structural integrity program for the Hanford DSTs. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2025

Validation of the DESI-DR1 3x2-pt analysis: scale cut and shear ratio tests

Combined survey analyses of galaxy clustering and weak gravitational lensing (3x2-pt studies) will allow new and accurate tests of the standard cosmological model. However, careful validation is necessary to ensure that these cosmological constraints are not biased by uncertainties associated with the modelling of astrophysical or systematic effects. In this study we validate the combined 3x2-pt analysis of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument Data Release 1 (DESI-DR1) spectroscopic galaxy clustering and overlapping weak lensing datasets from the Kilo-Degree Survey (KiDS), the Dark Energy Survey (DES), and the Hyper-Suprime-Cam Survey (HSC). By propagating the modelling uncertainties associated with the non-linear matter power spectrum, non-linear galaxy bias and baryon feedback, we design scale cuts to ensure that measurements of the matter density and the amplitude of the matter power spectrum are biased by less than 30% of the statistical error. We also test the internal consistency of the data and weak lensing systematics by performing new measurements of the lensing shear ratio. We demonstrate that the DESI-DR1 shear ratios can be successfully fit by the same model used to describe cosmic shear correlations, and analyse the additional information that can be extracted about the source redshift distributions and intrinsic alignment parameters. This study serves as crucial preparation for the upcoming cosmological parameter analysis of these datasets.

Emas, N. [Swinburne U., Ctr. Astrophys. Supercompu↗
NASA NTRS1995

Multiwavelength monitoring of the BL Lacertae object PKS 2155-304. 4: Multiwavelength analysis

Simultaneous X-ray, ultraviolet, optical, infrared, and radio monitoring data were used to test and constrain models of continuum emission from the BL Lacertae object PKS 2155-304. Intensively sampled ultraviolet and soft X-ray light curves showed a clear temporal correlation with the X-rays leading the ultraviolet by 2-3 hr. This lag was found to be significantly different from zero after an exhaustive comparison of four different techniques for measuring temporal correlations. Variations in the ultraviolet trough optical wave bands were also strongly correlated, with no measurable lag down to limiting timescales of approximately less than 1-2 hr. This strong correlation extends to the near-infrared, but the less intensive sampling precludes measurement of any lag beyomnd an upper limit of approximately less than 1 day. These lags and limits of the order of hours are much shorter than most rapid observed single-band variations. Because of the very sparse radio sampling, it was not possible to measure quantitatively the correlation and lag with shorter wavelengths, but the data do suggest that the radio may lag the optical/ultraviolet by approximately 1 week, with longer delays and weaker variations to longer radio wavelengths. The epoch-folding Q(exp 2) statistic was used to test for periodicity, and no evidence for strict or quasi-periodicity was found in any of the light curves. Because they lead the lower frequencies, the soft X-rays (approximately less than 1 keV) cannot arise from synchrotron self-Compton scattering. These results also rule out the accretion disk model, which predicts a measurable lag between ultraviolet/optical wavelength bands and a correlation between hardness and brightness, neither of which were seen. They are consistent with the entire radio through X-ray continuum arising from direct synchrotron emission from a relativistic jet. However, the tapered jet model, in which the X-ray emission is produced closer in, has problems explaining the magnitude of the ultraviolet/X-ray lag, because the X-ray-emitting electrons have very short lifetimes (t(sub 1/2) much less than 1 s). The result that the lag is much smaller than the variability timescale suggests instead that the radiation may be produced in a flattened region such as a shock front.

Edelson, R.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Overestimated prediction using polygenic prediction derived from summary statistics

When polygenic risk score (PRS) is derived from summary statistics, independence between discovery and test sets cannot be monitored. We compared two types of PRS studies derived from raw genetic data (denoted as rPRS) and the summary statistics for IGAP (sPRS). Two variables with the high heritability in UK Biobank, hypertension, and height, are used to derive an exemplary scale effect of PRS. sPRS without APOE is derived from International Genomics of Alzheimer’s Project (IGAP), which records ΔAUC and ΔR 2 of 0.051 ± 0.013 and 0.063 ± 0.015 for Alzheimer’s Disease Sequencing Project (ADSP) and 0.060 and 0.086 for Accelerating Medicine Partnership - Alzheimer’s Disease (AMP-AD). On UK Biobank, rPRS performances for hypertension assuming a similar size of discovery and test sets are 0.0036 ± 0.0027 (ΔAUC) and 0.0032 ± 0.0028 (ΔR 2 ). For height, ΔR 2 is 0.029 ± 0.0037. Considering the high heritability of hypertension and height of UK Biobank and sample size of UK Biobank, sPRS results from AD databases are inflated. Independence between discovery and test sets is a well-known basic requirement for PRS studies. However, a lot of PRS studies cannot follow such requirements because of impossible direct comparisons when using summary statistics. Thus, for sPRS, potential duplications should be carefully considered within the same ethnic group.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Convergent Concordant Mode Approach for Molecular Vibrations: CMA-2

The concordant mode approach (CMA) is a promising new scheme for dramatically increasing the system size and level of theory achievable in quantum chemical computations of molecular vibrational frequencies. Here, we achieve advances in the CMA hierarchy by computations targeting CCSD(T)/cc-pVTZ (coupled cluster singles and doubles with perturbative triples using a correlation-consistent polarized-valence triple-ζ basis set) benchmarks within the G2 molecular test set, executing a statistical analysis for 1501 frequencies from 111 compounds and then separately solving the refractory case of pyridine. First, MP2/cc-pVTZ (second-order Møller–Plesset perturbation theory with the same basis set) proves to be an excellent and preferred choice for generating the underlying (Level B) normal modes of the CMA scheme. Utilizing this Level B within the CMA-0A method reproduces the 1501 benchmark frequencies with a mean absolute error (MAE) of only 0.11 cm –1 and an attendant standard deviation of 0.49 cm –1 . Second, a convergent CMA-2 method is constituted that allows efficient computation of higher level (Level A) frequencies to any reasonable accuracy threshold by using only Hartree–Fock (HF) and MP2 or density functional theory (DFT) data to generate ξ parameters, which select the sparse off-diagonal force field elements for explicit evaluation at Level A. When Level B = MP2/cc-pVTZ, a cutoff of ξ = 0.02 provides an average maximum absolute error per molecule of only 0.17 cm –1 by incurring merely a 33% increase in average cost over CMA-0A. This CMA-2 method also eradicates the 4 problematic CMA-0A outliers of pyridine with even less effort (ξ = 0.04, 22% increase). Finally, the newly developed CMA procedures are shown to be highly successful when applied to 1-(1H-pyrrol-3-yl)ethanol, a new test molecule with diverse types of vibration.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS2011

Composite Overwrapped Pressure Vessels (COPV): Flight Rationale for the Space Shuttle Program

Each Orbiter Vehicle (Space Shuttle Program) contains up to 24 Kevlar49/Epoxy Composite Overwrapped Pressure Vessels (COPV) for storage of pressurized gases. In the wake of the Columbia accident and the ensuing Return To Flight (RTF) activities, Orbiter engineers reexamined COPV flight certification. The original COPV design calculations were updated to include recently declassified Kevlar COPV test data from Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) and to incorporate changes in how the Space Shuttle was operated as opposed to orinigially envisioned. 2005 estimates for the probability of a catastrophic failure over the life of the program (from STS-1 through STS-107) were one-in-five. To address this unacceptable risk, the Orbiter Project Office (OPO) initiated a comprehensive investigation to understand and mitigate this risk. First, the team considered and eventually deemed unfeasible procuring and replacing all existing flight COPVs. OPO replaced the two vessels with the highest risk with existing flight spare units. Second, OPO instituted operational improvements in ground procedures to signficiantly reduce risk, without adversely affecting Shuttle capability. Third, OPO developed a comprehensive model to quantify the likelihood of occurrance. A fully-instrumented burst test (recording a lower burst pressure than expected) on a flight-certified vessel provided critical understanding of the behavior of Orbiter COPVs. A more accurate model was based on a newly-compiled comprehensive database of Kevlar data from LLNL and elsewhere. Considering hardware changes, operational improvements and reliability model refinements, the mean reliability was determined to be 0.998 for the remainder of the Shuttle Program (from 2007, for STS- 118 thru STS-135). Since limited hardware resources precluded full model validation through multiple tests, additional model confidence was sought through the first-ever Accelerated Stress Rupture Test (ASRT) of a flown flight article. A Bayesian statistical approach was developed to interpret possible test results. Since the lifetime observed in the ASRT exceeded initial estimates by one to two orders of magnitude, the Space Shuttle Program deemed there was significant conservatism in the model and accepted continued operation with existing flight hardware. Given the variability in tank-to-tank original prooftest response, a non-destructive evaluation (NDE) technique utilizing Raman Spectroscopy was developed to directly measure COPV residual stress state. Preliminary results showed that patterns of low fiber elastic strains over the outside vessel surface, together with measured permanent volume growth during proof, could be directly correlated to increased fiber stress ratios on the inside fibers adjacent to the liner, and thus reduced reliability.

Kezirian, Michael T.↗