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At least 667 records · Page 37

Predicting Airport Runway Configurations for Decision-Support Using Supervised Learning

One of the most challenging tasks for air traffic controllers is runway configuration management (RCM). It deals with the optimal selection of runways to operate on (for arrivals and departures) based on traffic, surface wind speed, wind direction, other environmental variables, noise constraints, and several other airport-specific factors. It affects the efficiency of the National Airspace System (NAS) and both surface and airspace operations can benefit from better understanding future runway configurations. In this paper, we present a comprehensive implementation of predictive models for runway configuration estimation from large volumes of historical data. Specifically, operational data from two full years (2018 and 2019) is collected, analyzed, and fused together to build the data product used in this work. The data set differs from prior work in the field in terms of its scope, resolution, and variety of factors collected and considered. Meteorological data is collected from two different sources – current weather conditions from METAR (Meteorological Terminal Aviation Routine Weather Report) and forecast weather conditions from Localized Aviation MOS Program (LAMP). Operational data from the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Aviation System Performance Metrics (ASPM) related to scheduled and actual number of arrivals and departures, average taxi times, etc. are collected. NASA’s Sherlock Data Warehouse is used to identify critical information such as go-arounds, and other events that might impact RCM decision-making. All data is collected and aggregated over 15-minute intervals throughout the two years. This provides a resolution like the timescales that might be necessary for runway configuration management decision-making. A variety of supervised learning algorithms are tested including Support Vector Machine, Random Forest, Gradient Boosting, etc. including tuning of the model hyperparameters. The modeling process is applied and presented on two representative U.S. airports – Charlotte Douglas International Airport (KCLT) and Denver International Airport (KDEN). The two airports present different levels of complexity in terms of the total number of configurations used and provide a balanced perspective on the generalizability of the developed approach to other airports in the NAS. Initial results are promising (F1 score of 0.91 at KCLT and 0.83 at KDEN) for data in the test set. The final paper will contain a comprehensive comparison between different models and model building strategies as well as further refined results. Most important predictors for each airport will be identified along with a discussion and recommendations on adapting the framework to other scenarios.

Tejas G Puranik↗

Adaptive resource allocation for surrogate modeling of systems comprised of multiple disciplines with varying fidelity

We present an adaptive algorithm for constructing surrogate models for integrated systems composed of a set of coupled components. With this goal we introduce ‘coupling’ variables with a priori unknown distributions that allow approximations of each component to be built independently. Once built, the surrogates of the components are combined and used to predict system-level quantities of interest (QoI) at a fraction of the cost of interrogating the full system model. We use a greedy experimental design procedure, based upon a modification of Multi-Index Stochastic Collocation (MISC), to minimize the error of the combined surrogate. This is achieved by refining each component surrogate in accordance with its relative contribution to error in the approximation of the system-level QoI. Our adaptation of MISC is a multi-fidelity procedure that can leverage ensembles of models of varying cost and accuracy, for one or more components, to produce estimates of system-level QoI. Several numerical examples demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed approach on systems involving feed-forward and feedback coupling. For a fixed computational budget, the proposed algorithm is able to produce approximations that are orders of magnitude more accurate than approximations that treat the integrated system as a black-box.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

From biological neural networks to thinking machines: Transitioning biological organizational principles to computer technology

The three-dimensional organization of the vestibular macula is under study by computer assisted reconstruction and simulation methods as a model for more complex neural systems. One goal of this research is to transition knowledge of biological neural network architecture and functioning to computer technology, to contribute to the development of thinking computers. Maculas are organized as weighted neural networks for parallel distributed processing of information. The network is characterized by non-linearity of its terminal/receptive fields. Wiring appears to develop through constrained randomness. A further property is the presence of two main circuits, highly channeled and distributed modifying, that are connected through feedforward-feedback collaterals and biasing subcircuit. Computer simulations demonstrate that differences in geometry of the feedback (afferent) collaterals affects the timing and the magnitude of voltage changes delivered to the spike initiation zone. Feedforward (efferent) collaterals act as voltage followers and likely inhibit neurons of the distributed modifying circuit. These results illustrate the importance of feedforward-feedback loops, of timing, and of inhibition in refining neural network output. They also suggest that it is the distributed modifying network that is most involved in adaptation, memory, and learning. Tests of macular adaptation, through hyper- and microgravitational studies, support this hypothesis since synapses in the distributed modifying circuit, but not the channeled circuit, are altered. Transitioning knowledge of biological systems to computer technology, however, remains problematical.

Ross, Muriel D.↗

Aerodynamic Shape Optimization of a Dual-Stream Supersonic Plug Nozzle

Aerodynamic shape optimization was performed on an isolated axisymmetric plug nozzle sized for a supersonic business jet. The dual-stream concept was tailored to attenuate nearfield pressure disturbances without compromising nozzle performance. Adjoint-based anisotropic mesh refinement was applied to resolve nearfield compression and expansion features in the baseline viscous grid. Deformed versions of the adapted grid were used for subsequent adjoint-driven shape optimization. For design, a nonlinear gradient-based optimizer was coupled to the discrete adjoint formulation of the Reynolds-averaged Navier- Stokes equations. All nozzle surfaces were parameterized using 3rd order B-spline interpolants and perturbed axisymmetrically via free-form deformation. Geometry deformations were performed using 20 design variables shared between the outer cowl, shroud and centerbody nozzle surfaces. Interior volume grid deformation during design was accomplished using linear elastic mesh morphing. The nozzle optimization was performed at a design cruise speed of Mach 1.6, assuming core and bypass pressure ratios of 6.19 and 3.24, respectively. Ambient flight conditions at design were commensurate with 45,000-ft standard day atmosphere.

shape optimization↗

Mesh refinement in finite element analysis by minimization of the stiffness matrix trace

Most finite element packages provide means to generate meshes automatically. However, the user is usually confronted with the problem of not knowing whether the mesh generated is appropriate for the problem at hand. Since the accuracy of the finite element results is mesh dependent, mesh selection forms a very important step in the analysis. Indeed, in accurate analyses, meshes need to be refined or rezoned until the solution converges to a value so that the error is below a predetermined tolerance. A-posteriori methods use error indicators, developed by using the theory of interpolation and approximation theory, for mesh refinements. Some use other criterions, such as strain energy density variation and stress contours for example, to obtain near optimal meshes. Although these methods are adaptive, they are expensive. Alternatively, a priori methods, until now available, use geometrical parameters, for example, element aspect ratio. Therefore, they are not adaptive by nature. An adaptive a-priori method is developed. The criterion is that the minimization of the trace of the stiffness matrix with respect to the nodal coordinates, leads to a minimization of the potential energy, and as a consequence provide a good starting mesh. In a few examples the method is shown to provide the optimal mesh. The method is also shown to be relatively simple and amenable to development of computer algorithms. When the procedure is used in conjunction with a-posteriori methods of grid refinement, it is shown that fewer refinement iterations and fewer degrees of freedom are required for convergence as opposed to when the procedure is not used. The mesh obtained is shown to have uniform distribution of stiffness among the nodes and elements which, as a consequence, leads to uniform error distribution. Thus the mesh obtained meets the optimality criterion of uniform error distribution.

Kittur, Madan G.↗

Wing tip vortex calculations with an unstructured adaptive-grid Euler solver

A solution-adaptive grid method has been developed for computing tip-vortex flowfields around rectangular wings. This method uses subdivision in order to locally refine the grid in regions with high vorticity. Two different flow solvers are used. Each solves the three-dimensional Euler equations on unstructured grids. Computed results are compared to experimentally measured surface pressures and vortex velocities on a NACA 0015 rectangular wing. Predicted results for surface pressures and integrated lift agree well with the experimental data. The predicted size of the rotational vortex core is larger than the experimentally-measured value and the peak velocities are less. This discrepancy appears to be caused by deficiencies in the inviscid Euler-equation model. This model cannot capture the complex viscous effects at the tip that determine the detailed structure of the resulting vortex. In spite of this limitation, the present Euler unstructured adaptive-grid method demonstrates the ability to convert vortical flows with low numerical diffusion. Applications for modeling helicopter rotor wake systems are discussed.

Strawn, Roger C.↗

Adaptive Uncertainty Quantification for Stochastic Hyperbolic Conservation Laws

Here, we propose a predictor-corrector adaptive method for the study of hyperbolic partial differential equations (PDEs) under uncertainty. Constructed around the framework of stochastic finite volume (SFV) methods, our approach circumvents sampling schemes or simulation ensembles while also preserving fundamental properties, in particular hyperbolicity of the resulting systems and conservation of the discrete solutions. Furthermore, we augment the existing SFV theory with a priori convergence results for statistical quantities, in particular push-forward densities, which we demonstrate through numerical experiments. By linking refinement indicators to regions of the physical and stochastic spaces, we drive anisotropic refinements of the discretizations, introducing new degrees of freedom where deemed profitable. To illustrate our proposed method, we consider a series of numerical examples for nonlinear hyperbolic PDEs based on Burgers’ and Euler’s equations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Space Launch System Development Status

Development of NASA's Space Launch System (SLS) heavy lift rocket is shifting from the formulation phase into the implementation phase in 2014, a little more than three years after formal program approval. Current development is focused on delivering a vehicle capable of launching 70 metric tons (t) into low Earth orbit. This "Block 1" configuration will launch the Orion Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV) on its first autonomous flight beyond the Moon and back in December 2017, followed by its first crewed flight in 2021. SLS can evolve to a130-t lift capability and serve as a baseline for numerous robotic and human missions ranging from a Mars sample return to delivering the first astronauts to explore another planet. Benefits associated with its unprecedented mass and volume include reduced trip times and simplified payload design. Every SLS element achieved significant, tangible progress over the past year. Among the Program's many accomplishments are: manufacture of Core Stage test panels; testing of Solid Rocket Booster development hardware including thrust vector controls and avionics; planning for testing the RS-25 Core Stage engine; and more than 4,000 wind tunnel runs to refine vehicle configuration, trajectory, and guidance. The Program shipped its first flight hardware - the Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle Stage Adapter (MSA) - to the United Launch Alliance for integration with the Delta IV heavy rocket that will launch an Orion test article in 2014 from NASA's Kennedy Space Center. Objectives of this Earth-orbit flight include validating the performance of Orion's heat shield and the MSA design, which will be manufactured again for SLS missions to deep space. The Program successfully completed Preliminary Design Review in 2013 and Key Decision Point C in early 2014. NASA has authorized the Program to move forward to Critical Design Review, scheduled for 2015 and a December 2017 first launch. The Program's success to date is due to prudent use of proven technology, infrastructure, and workforce from the Saturn and Space Shuttle programs, a streamlined management approach, and judicious use of new technologies. The result is a safe, affordable, sustainable, and evolutionary path to development of an unprecedented capability for future missions across the solar system. In an environment of economic challenges, the nationwide SLS team continues to meet ambitious budget and schedule targets. This paper will discuss SLS program and technical accomplishments over the past year and provide a look at the milestones and challenges ahead.

Lyles, Garry↗

NASA's Space Launch System Development Status

Development of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA's) Space Launch System (SLS) heavy lift rocket is shifting from the formulation phase into the implementation phase in 2014, a little more than 3 years after formal program establishment. Current development is focused on delivering a vehicle capable of launching 70 metric tons (t) into low Earth orbit. This "Block 1" configuration will launch the Orion Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV) on its first autonomous flight beyond the Moon and back in December 2017, followed by its first crewed flight in 2021. SLS can evolve to a130t lift capability and serve as a baseline for numerous robotic and human missions ranging from a Mars sample return to delivering the first astronauts to explore another planet. Benefits associated with its unprecedented mass and volume include reduced trip times and simplified payload design. Every SLS element achieved significant, tangible progress over the past year. Among the Program's many accomplishments are: manufacture of core stage test barrels and domes; testing of Solid Rocket Booster development hardware including thrust vector controls and avionics; planning for RS- 25 core stage engine testing; and more than 4,000 wind tunnel runs to refine vehicle configuration, trajectory, and guidance. The Program shipped its first flight hardware - the Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle Stage Adapter (MSA) - to the United Launch Alliance for integration with the Delta IV heavy rocket that will launch an Orion test article in 2014 from NASA's Kennedy Space Center. The Program successfully completed Preliminary Design Review in 2013 and will complete Key Decision Point C in 2014. NASA has authorized the Program to move forward to Critical Design Review, scheduled for 2015 and a December 2017 first launch. The Program's success to date is due to prudent use of proven technology, infrastructure, and workforce from the Saturn and Space Shuttle programs, a streamlined management approach, and judicious use of new technologies. The result is a safe, affordable, sustainable, and evolutionary path to development of an unprecedented capability for future missions across the solar system. In an environment of economic challenges, the nationwide SLS team continues to meet ambitious budget and schedule targets. This paper will discuss SLS Program and technical accomplishments over the past year and provide a look at the milestones and challenges ahead.

Lyles, Garry↗

Efficient Reliability Analysis using Generalized Multifidelity Modeling and Explainable Active Learning

To assess the reliability of critical technologies like nuclear plants and infrastructure systems and improve the robustness of design, engineers have to quantify the uncertainties surrounding the system behavior accurately. However, the complexity of the problem can make standard reliability analysis algorithms prohibitively expensive, primarily due to the high computational cost of estimating the system response at each iteration. This cost can be greatly reduced by using multi-fidelity modeling and machine learning to build a surrogate model to replace the expensive response function. We propose a general and robust method for building surrogates from multiple Low Fidelity (LF) models coupled with machine learning to retain accuracy. Our framework first constructs “Corrected Low Fidelity models” (CLFs) by coupling a High Fidelity (HF) model inferred Gaussian Process correction term with each of the LF models. It then uses the correction terms to assign model probabilities to each of these CLFs in an explainable way before using them to assemble the final surrogate. No assumptions are made about the type of the LF models or their correlation with the HF model. The proposed surrogate modeling framework is used within the subset simulation algorithm (a variance-reduced MCMC-based reliability analysis algorithm) for enhanced efficiency. Additionally, an active learning step is added to the algorithm to adaptively decide when the surrogate is not sufficiently accurate, at which point the HF model is called and used to refine the surrogate. Through a frame buckling example, our method is shown to be highly efficient at reducing the expensive HF model calls while accurately estimating the failure probability.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Photovoltaic Analysis and Response Support (PARS) Platform for Solar Situational Awareness and Resiliency Services

The project's primary objective is to develop a digital-twin based Photovoltaic (PV) Analysis and Response Support (PARS) platform, which aims to provide real-time situational awareness and optimal response plans. This platform is designed to enhance the performance of hybrid PV systems, making them competitive with or even superior to conventional generation resources. The PARS platform enabled the project team to develop and evaluate an extensive suite of grid support functionalities for the hybrid PV systems to enhance grid performance, across key areas including visibility, dispatchability, security, resilience, and reliability. Given the global push toward achieving 100% clean energy by 2035, there is a significant increase in the integration of inverter-based resources (IBRs) throughout the energy grid. Effectively managing the inherent variability and uncertainty associated with IBRs is crucial for ensuring cost-effectiveness, reliability, and security in both the main grid and islanded microgrids. Constrained to a limited array of IEEE test systems or standard feeder models, traditional IBR modeling struggles to assimilate new field data, accurately reflect system dynamics, and adapt to the evolving energy landscape. In our project, we embraced a Digital Twin (DT) strategy for crafting the PARS platform. A digital twin acts as a precise virtual counterpart of a physical system, built on historical data and continuously honed with real-time insights. This enables the high-fidelity DT to accurately mirror current system operations and forecast future scenarios. Consequently, the PARS platform becomes an ideal environment for testing and refining monitoring, control, power, and energy management algorithms designed to boost hybrid PV system performance. The defining feature of the PARS platform, distinguishing it from other advanced simulation tools, is its exceptional adaptability. This is achieved by employing actual network topologies and utilizing real-time field data for fine-tuning and calibration, ensuring a close emulation of real-world conditions. The project deliverables include: 1) High-fidelity IBR models and tools for real-time parameterization, utilizing real-time field measurements to refine IBR models for enhanced accuracy and performance; 2) Grid-forming and Grid-following capabilities to deliver resilience services, including blackstart, voltage and frequency support, cold-load pick-up, power reserves, and three-phase load balancing across grid-connected and microgrid settings; 3) Machine learning-based forecasting tools and methods for generating synthetic data and topologies, creating diverse and realistic simulation environments for evaluating varied operational scenarios; 4) Advanced microgrid power and energy management algorithms for optimizing the integration and operation of PV, storage, and demand response resources within both feeder and community scales. The power grid data sets are provided by four utility companies in North Carolina and the New York Power Administration. Acting as industry advisors, our industry partners communicated stakeholder needs and regulatory standards to the research teams, aiding technology transfer by incorporating the developed methodologies into their daily operations. This collaboration ensures that the PARS platform, functioning as a power system digital twin, enhances our understanding of IBR dynamic behaviors and enables the development and evaluation of IBR control functions that match or exceed the capabilities of conventional synchronous generators.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Efficient Low Dissipative High Order Schemes for Multiscale MHD Flows

Accurate numerical simulations of complex multiscale compressible viscous flows, especially high speed turbulence combustion and acoustics, demand high order schemes with adaptive numerical dissipation controls. Standard high resolution shock-capturing methods are too dissipative to capture the small scales and/or long-time wave propagations without extreme grid refinements and small time steps. An integrated approach for the control of numerical dissipation in high order schemes for the compressible Euler and Navier-Stokes equations has been developed and verified by the authors and collaborators. These schemes are suitable for the problems in question. Basically, the scheme consists of sixth-order or higher non-dissipative spatial difference operators as the base scheme. To control the amount of numerical dissipation, multiresolution wavelets are used as sensors to adaptively limit the amount and to aid the selection and/or blending of the appropriate types of numerical dissipation to be used. Magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) waves play a key role in drag reduction in highly maneuverable high speed combat aircraft, in space weather forecasting, and in the understanding of the dynamics of the evolution of our solar system and the main sequence stars. Although there exist a few well-studied second and third-order high-resolution shock-capturing schemes for the MHD in the literature, these schemes are too diffusive and not practical for turbulence/combustion MHD flows. On the other hand, extension of higher than third-order high-resolution schemes to the MHD system of equations is not straightforward. Unlike the hydrodynamic equations, the inviscid MHD system is non-strictly hyperbolic with non-convex fluxes. The wave structures and shock types are different from their hydrodynamic counterparts. Many of the non-traditional hydrodynamic shocks are not fully understood. Consequently, reliable and highly accurate numerical schemes for multiscale MHD equations pose a great challenge to algorithm development. In addition, controlling the numerical error of the divergence free condition of the magnetic fields for high order methods has been a stumbling block. Lower order methods are not practical for the astrophysical problems in question. We propose to extend our hydrodynamics schemes to the MHD equations with several desired properties over commonly used MHD schemes.

Sjoegreen, Bjoern↗

Using adaptive grid in modeling rocket nozzle flow

The mechanical behavior of a rocket motor internal flow field results in a system of nonlinear partial differential equations which cannot be solved analytically. However, this system of equations called the Navier-Stokes equations can be solved numerically. The accuracy and the convergence of the solution of the system of equations will depend largely on how precisely the sharp gradients in the domain of interest can be resolved. With the advances in computer technology, more sophisticated algorithms are available to improve the accuracy and convergence of the solutions. An adaptive grid generation is one of the schemes which can be incorporated into the algorithm to enhance the capability of numerical modeling. It is equivalent to putting intelligence into the algorithm to optimize the use of computer memory. With this scheme, the finite difference domain of the flow field called the grid does neither have to be very fine nor strategically placed at the location of sharp gradients. The grid is self adapting as the solution evolves. This scheme significantly improves the methodology of solving flow problems in rocket nozzles by taking the refinement part of grid generation out of the hands of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) specialists and place it into the computer algorithm itself.

Chow, Alan S.↗

Search-based model identification of smart-structure damage

This paper describes the use of a combined model and parameter identification approach, based on modal analysis and artificial intelligence (AI) techniques, for identifying damage or flaws in a rotating truss structure incorporating embedded piezoceramic sensors. This smart structure example is representative of a class of structures commonly found in aerospace systems and next generation space structures. Artificial intelligence techniques of classification, heuristic search, and an object-oriented knowledge base are used in an AI-based model identification approach. A finite model space is classified into a search tree, over which a variant of best-first search is used to identify the model whose stored response most closely matches that of the input. Newly-encountered models can be incorporated into the model space. This adaptativeness demonstrates the potential for learning control. Following this output-error model identification, numerical parameter identification is used to further refine the identified model. Given the rotating truss example in this paper, noisy data corresponding to various damage configurations are input to both this approach and a conventional parameter identification method. The combination of the AI-based model identification with parameter identification is shown to lead to smaller parameter corrections than required by the use of parameter identification alone.

Glass, B. J.↗

Adjoint-Based Mesh Adaptation and Shape Optimization for Simulations with Propulsion

We demonstrate a well-posed formulation of permeable boundary conditions and mass- flow-rate functionals for adjoint-based mesh refinement and shape optimization governed by the steady Euler equations. The boundary conditions are used to model propulsion- system effects of inlets and nozzles. A two-shock diffuser with an analytic solution is used to verify the implementation. Numerical examples show that the adjoint solution is smooth at the boundary, indicating that the discretization is adjoint consistent when exit pressure is specified at subsonic outflow, and stagnation temperature and pressure at subsonic inflow. The results focus on improving simulation techniques for low-boom aircraft analysis and design. By including mass-flow-rate outputs, we obtain reliable estimates of engine flow rates concurrently with nearfield pressure signatures without increasing simulation cost. We also demonstrate the importance of mass-flow-rate constraints in shape optimization by examining trade-offs between maximizing performance of a shrouded supersonic nozzle and minimizing shocks in its nearfield.

Nemec, Marian↗

Resource-Adaptive Federated Text Generation with Differential Privacy

In cross-silo federated learning (FL), sensitive text datasets remain confined to local organizations due to privacy regulations, making repeated training for each downstream task both communication-intensive and privacy-demanding. A promising alternative is to generate differentially private (DP) synthetic datasets that approximate the global distribution and can be reused across tasks. However, pretrained large language models (LLMs) often fail under domain shift, and federated finetuning is hindered by computational heterogeneity: only resource-rich clients can update the model, while weaker clients are excluded, amplifying data skew and the adverse effects of DP noise. We propose a flexible participation framework that adapts to client capacities. Strong clients perform DP federated finetuning, while weak clients contribute through a lightweight DP voting mechanism that refines synthetic text. To ensure the synthetic data mirrors the global dataset, we apply control codes (e.g., labels, topics, metadata) that represent each client’s data proportions and constrain voting to semantically coherent subsets. This two-phase approach requires only a single round of communication for weak clients and integrates contributions from all participants. Experiments show that our framework improves distribution alignment and downstream robustness under DP and heterogeneity.

Wang, Jiayi [ORNL]↗

Towards autonomous fuzzy control

The efficient implementation of on-line adaptation in real time is an important research problem in fuzzy control. The goal is to develop autonomous self-organizing controllers employing system-independent control meta-knowledge which enables them to adjust their control policies depending on the systems they control and the environments in which they operate. An autonomous fuzzy controller would continuously observe system behavior while implementing its control actions and would use the outcomes of these actions to refine its control policy. It could be designed to lie dormant when its control actions give rise to adequate performance characteristics but could rapidly and autonomously initiate real-time adaptation whenever its performance degrades. Such an autonomous fuzzy controller would have immense practical value. It could accommodate individual variations in system characteristics and also compensate for degradations in system characteristics caused by wear and tear. It could also potentially deal with black-box systems and control scenarios. On-going research in autonomous fuzzy control is reported. The ultimate research objective is to develop robust and relatively inexpensive autonomous fuzzy control hardware suitable for use in real time environments.

Shenoi, Sujeet↗