Results for “Bayesian Analysis” — Page 37

DOE OSTI2015

ORBITAL AND PHYSICAL PROPERTIES OF THE σ Ori Aa, Ab, B TRIPLE SYSTEM

We provide a complete characterization of the astrophysical properties of the σ Ori Aa, Ab, B hierarchical triple system and an improved set of orbital parameters for the highly eccentric σ Ori Aa, Ab spectroscopic binary. We compiled a spectroscopic data set comprising 90 high-resolution spectra covering a total time span of 1963 days. We applied the Lehman-Filhés method for a detailed orbital analysis of the radial velocity curves and performed a combined quantitative spectroscopic analysis of the σ Ori Aa, Ab, B system by means of the stellar atmosphere code FASTWIND. We used our own plus other available information on photometry and distance to the system for measuring the radii, luminosities, and spectroscopic masses of the three components. We also inferred evolutionary masses and stellar ages using the Bayesian code BONNSAI. The orbital analysis of the new radial velocity curves led to a very accurate orbital solution of the σ Ori Aa, Ab pair. We provided indirect arguments indicating that σ Ori B is a fast-rotating early B dwarf. The FASTWIND+BONNSAI analysis showed that the Aa, Ab pair contains the hottest and most massive components of the triple system while σ Ori B is a bit cooler and less massive. The derived stellar ages of the inner pair are intriguingly younger than the one widely accepted for the σ Orionis cluster, at 3 ± 1 Ma. The outcome of this study will be of key importance for a precise determination of the distance to the σ Orionis cluster, the interpretation of the strong X-ray emission detected for σ Ori Aa, Ab, B, and the investigation of the formation and evolution of multiple massive stellar systems and substellar objects.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Sensitivity Study of Multiscale and Phenomenological Elasto-Viscoplastic Grade 91 Material Models for Component-Scale Response

Many advanced nuclear reactor concepts currently being developed are targeting higher operating temperatures relative to the current fleet of light water nuclear reactors, for efficiency gains and other operational considerations. The design of high temperature structural components with reliable long-term operational performance will depend on material models that accurately capture the inelastic deformation mechanisms active in these environments. In this work, we perform a detailed parameter sensitivity analysis of two unified elasto-viscoplastic Grade 91 material models capable of capturing long term high temperature creep deformation. The first model is a phenomelogical material model from the Nuclear Engineering Material Library (NEML) developed at Argonne National Lab. The NEML model parameters and their uncertainty were fit to a range of Grade 91 experimental data using Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo analysis. The second model is a LAROMance data-driven surrogate material model developed at Los Alamos National Lab. The LAROMance model is fit to a large database of responses produced by a mechanistic crystal plasticity based polycrystal model. Parameters for the LAROMance surrogate material model reflect the pedigree of the Grade 91 microstructure. Both material models have been integrated into the Grizzly code, based on the open-source MOOSE multiphysics simulation framework, to simulate both the progression of aging mechanisms and the effects of that aging on nuclear power plant structures. Grizzly is used analyze a three-dimensional Grade 91 piping system to compare the long-term inelastic response predicted by these two fundamentally different models and assess the sensitivity of the material model input parameters on this quantity of interest.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Parameter estimation for X-ray scattering analysis with Hamiltonian Markov Chain Monte Carlo

Bayesian-inference-based approaches, in particular the random-walk Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method, have received much attention recently for X-ray scattering analysis. Hamiltonian MCMC, a state-of-the-art development in the field of MCMC, has become popular in recent years. It utilizes Hamiltonian dynamics for indirect but much more efficient drawings of the model parameters. We described the principle of the Hamiltonian MCMC for inversion problems in X-ray scattering analysis by estimating high-dimensional models for several motivating scenarios in small-angle X-ray scattering, reflectivity, and X-ray fluorescence holography. Hamiltonian MCMC with appropriate preconditioning can deliver superior performance over the random-walk MCMC, and thus can be used as an efficient tool for the statistical analysis of the parameter distributions, as well as model predictions and confidence analysis.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2019

Computational Bayesian Framework for Quantification and Reduction of Predictive Uncertainty in Subsurface Environmental Modeling

Subsurface environmental systems are open and complex, in which intricate hydrologic, microbiologic, and geochemical processes occur and interact at multiple scales. Understanding and predicting system responses to natural forces (e.g., climate changes) and human activities (e.g., contaminant remediation and CO 2 sequestration) is indispensable for managing water resources, cleaning subsurface contamination at many sites of the Department of Energy (DOE), and providing expert analysis to inform policy-making on long-term stewardship of nuclear waste disposal and CO 2 storage sites. Groundwater reactive transport modeling is necessary for understanding and predicting the complex subsurface environmental system. However, as complex systems are never completely predictable, model predictions of the subsurface system are inherently uncertain, and uncertainty is one of the greatest obstacles in simulating the subsurface environment. Quantifying predictive uncertainty of the complex system is critical to test model predictive power, support decision-making, and guide experimental design and data collection for uncertainty reduction. This project tackled two major obstacles to efficient and effective quantification and reduction of predictive uncertainty in simulating the complex subsurface environment. One obstacle is that existing methods of uncertainty quantification are too fragmented and incomplete for understanding and predicting the complex subsurface environment as a whole. The other obstacle is that existing methods of uncertainty quantification are computationally demanding and may not be applicable to groundwater reactive transport modeling that is always computationally expensive. The above two obstacles to uncertainty quantification directly affect the design of data collection schemes for uncertainty reduction. In this project, we developed a comprehensive Bayesian framework to remove the first obstacle. The second obstacle was tackled by using the sparse grid methods, which were originally developed and analyzed for numerical integration in the field of applied mathematics. We integrated the sparse grid methods into the Bayesian framework seamlessly, which led to a sparse-grid-based method of Bayesian uncertainty analysis. The developed computational Bayesian framework has been applied to a number of subsurface environmental problems through collaborating with scientists at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and Oak Ridge National Laboratory. The applications demonstrated that the computational Bayesian framework is general and compatible with any models and numerical codes of subsurface modeling. It is thus can be applied to gain insights for subsurface environmental modeling. This project helped the PI achieve his career goal to advance the state-of-the-art computational methods in uncertainty quantification for subsurface environmental modeling. This project supported two doctoral students, two master students, and one post-doc. The two doctoral students, after their graduation, worked as post-docs at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and the Oak Ridge National Laboratory. The project produced a total of 29 journal articles (four under review), one book chapter, and a number of conference proceedings and abstracts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

ARCTRON: A Rapid Experimental Proving Ground for TPS Experiments and Arcjet Technology Development

Innovation in high-enthalpy facilities is fundamentally limited by the cost and risk of experimentation. New concepts for plasma control, diagnostics, facility components, and plasma-material interaction often require repeated iterations that are impractical to perform in production arcjets. As a result, promising ideas may remain unexplored or reach operational facilities only after significant development effort. ARCTRON is being developed as a rapid experimental proving ground where new ideas in plasma science, arcjet engineering, diagnostics, and material response can be conceived, tested, and quantitatively evaluated before transition to large-scale facilities. The platform combines radio-frequency (RF) and DC arc plasma generation, externally applied magnetic fields, configurable gas composition, reduced-pressure operation, laser heating, electrical biasing, and modular diagnostic access. These capabilities permit the plasma source, applied forcing, test article, and measurement configuration to be modified independently, allowing individual physical mechanisms to be isolated more readily than in a traditional test environment. One class of investigations addresses fundamental plasma-surface interaction physics. Conventional material tests often expose a specimen simultaneously to convective heating, reactive species, pressure, shear, radiation, and surface-current effects. The resulting material response may be measured accurately, while the contribution of each mechanism remains difficult to identify. ARCTRON is designed to vary these effects selectively. Plasma chemistry can be changed independently through configurable gas mixtures; magnetic fields and electrical biasing can modify charged-particle transport; laser heating can provide a non-plasma thermal input; and pressure, flow, and discharge mode can be varied over a broad operating space. This enables controlled tests of hypotheses involving surface catalycity, reactive-species transport, plasma-assisted oxidation, electromagnetic effects, shear, and the relative contributions of thermal and chemical loading. A second class of investigations enabled by this approach concerns the engineering of high-enthalpy facilities themselves. Arc-heated facilities are limited by electrode erosion, unstable arc attachment, localized heating, and damage to nozzles and other plasma-facing components. ARCTRON provides a lower-cost environment for testing concepts intended to mitigate these limitations. Candidate investigations include the use of applied magnetic fields to alter current paths and reduce plasma interaction with nozzle walls, ExB forcing to introduce controlled plasma rotation, magnetic or geometric approaches for distributing arc attachment, and alternative electrode or discharge configurations intended to reduce erosion and improve stability. Because the platform is reconfigurable, these concepts can be evaluated through repeated design--build--test cycles before they are considered for implementation in operational facilities. The platform also supports the development and validation of diagnostics that may be difficult to introduce initially into a large arcjet. Current and planned measurements include spatially resolved optical emission spectroscopy, electrostatic probes, fast imaging, pyrometry, calorimetry, laser-induced fluorescence, and absorption spectroscopy. These diagnostics are intended not merely to document a nominal operating condition, but to constrain the local plasma state and its relationship to component or material response. The modular facility geometry allows diagnostic concepts to be tested, calibrated, and compared under repeatable conditions before deployment in more demanding environments. ARCTRON is also supported by an integrated software suite. Automated control and data acquisition allow discharge parameters, gas composition, magnetic fields, diagnostic timing, and test configuration to be recorded as part of each experiment (STARDAC - Software for Testing, Analysis, Research Data, and Control). The Backend for Experiment Analysis, Storage, and Traceability (BEAST) is a database that provides the infrastructure needed to associate heterogeneous measurements with facility configuration, specimen identity, calibration state, geometry, and analysis provenance. This backend is particularly important for exploratory campaigns, in which many related configurations may be tested, and the value of an individual experiment depends on its connection to earlier and subsequent iterations. Complementary analysis capabilities, including computer-vision-based transient response measurements (arcjetCV), three-dimensional surface reconstruction (STARSCAN), and model-based Bayesian inference (SHIELD), and tomography data analysis (TOMATO, PuMA) can be incorporated when required by a specific hypothesis without becoming the focus of every campaign. The central objective of ARCTRON is therefore not to maximize heat flux or reproduce a complete flight environment. Its purpose is to reduce the cost and time required to ask consequential questions about plasma behavior, plasma-facing materials, diagnostics, and arcjet technology. By providing a controlled environment for rapid reconfiguration, mechanism isolation, quantitative measurement, and iterative engineering, ARCTRON can help mature concepts that would otherwise remain too speculative or too risky for evaluation in production facilities. The resulting knowledge can then guide the design of material models, focus test objectives in larger arcjets, reduce facility-development risk, and improve the physical basis of high-enthalpy ground testing. This work will present the ARCTRON architecture, operating modes, diagnostic suite, and digital experimental workflow. Initial experimental results from the first integrated operation of the facility will be presented, including flow characterization, power limitations, and deployment of the initial diagnostic suite. Ongoing development efforts aimed at catalycity characterization, magnetic plasma control, and advanced optical diagnostics will also be discussed, illustrating how the platform supports rapid iteration from concept to experiment.

experimental diagnostics↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

ARCTRON: A Rapid Experimental Proving Ground for TPS Experiments and Arcjet Technology Development

Innovation in high-enthalpy facilities is fundamentally limited by the cost and risk of experimentation. New concepts for plasma control, diagnostics, facility components, and plasma-material interaction often require repeated iterations that are impractical to perform in production arcjets. As a result, promising ideas may remain unexplored or reach operational facilities only after significant development effort. ARCTRON is being developed as a rapid experimental proving ground where new ideas in plasma science, arcjet engineering, diagnostics, and material response can be conceived, tested, and quantitatively evaluated before transition to large-scale facilities. The platform combines radio-frequency (RF) and DC arc plasma generation, externally applied magnetic fields, configurable gas composition, reduced-pressure operation, laser heating, electrical biasing, and modular diagnostic access. These capabilities permit the plasma source, applied forcing, test article, and measurement configuration to be modified independently, allowing individual physical mechanisms to be isolated more readily than in a traditional test environment. One class of investigations addresses fundamental plasma-surface interaction physics. Conventional material tests often expose a specimen simultaneously to convective heating, reactive species, pressure, shear, radiation, and surface-current effects. The resulting material response may be measured accurately, while the contribution of each mechanism remains difficult to identify. ARCTRON is designed to vary these effects selectively. Plasma chemistry can be changed independently through configurable gas mixtures; magnetic fields and electrical biasing can modify charged-particle transport; laser heating can provide a non-plasma thermal input; and pressure, flow, and discharge mode can be varied over a broad operating space. This enables controlled tests of hypotheses involving surface catalycity, reactive-species transport, plasma-assisted oxidation, electromagnetic effects, shear, and the relative contributions of thermal and chemical loading. A second class of investigations enabled by this approach concerns the engineering of high-enthalpy facilities themselves. Arc-heated facilities are limited by electrode erosion, unstable arc attachment, localized heating, and damage to nozzles and other plasma-facing components. ARCTRON provides a lower-cost environment for testing concepts intended to mitigate these limitations. Candidate investigations include the use of applied magnetic fields to alter current paths and reduce plasma interaction with nozzle walls, ExB forcing to introduce controlled plasma rotation, magnetic or geometric approaches for distributing arc attachment, and alternative electrode or discharge configurations intended to reduce erosion and improve stability. Because the platform is reconfigurable, these concepts can be evaluated through repeated design--build--test cycles before they are considered for implementation in operational facilities. The platform also supports the development and validation of diagnostics that may be difficult to introduce initially into a large arcjet. Current and planned measurements include spatially resolved optical emission spectroscopy, electrostatic probes, fast imaging, pyrometry, calorimetry, laser-induced fluorescence, and absorption spectroscopy. These diagnostics are intended not merely to document a nominal operating condition, but to constrain the local plasma state and its relationship to component or material response. The modular facility geometry allows diagnostic concepts to be tested, calibrated, and compared under repeatable conditions before deployment in more demanding environments. ARCTRON is also supported by an integrated software suite. Automated control and data acquisition allow discharge parameters, gas composition, magnetic fields, diagnostic timing, and test configuration to be recorded as part of each experiment (STARDAC - Software for Testing, Analysis, Research Data, and Control). The Backend for Experiment Analysis, Storage, and Traceability (BEAST) is a database that provides the infrastructure needed to associate heterogeneous measurements with facility configuration, specimen identity, calibration state, geometry, and analysis provenance. This backend is particularly important for exploratory campaigns, in which many related configurations may be tested, and the value of an individual experiment depends on its connection to earlier and subsequent iterations. Complementary analysis capabilities, including computer-vision-based transient response measurements (arcjetCV), three-dimensional surface reconstruction (STARSCAN), and model-based Bayesian inference (SHIELD), and tomography data analysis (TOMATO, PuMA) can be incorporated when required by a specific hypothesis without becoming the focus of every campaign. The central objective of ARCTRON is therefore not to maximize heat flux or reproduce a complete flight environment. Its purpose is to reduce the cost and time required to ask consequential questions about plasma behavior, plasma-facing materials, diagnostics, and arcjet technology. By providing a controlled environment for rapid reconfiguration, mechanism isolation, quantitative measurement, and iterative engineering, ARCTRON can help mature concepts that would otherwise remain too speculative or too risky for evaluation in production facilities. The resulting knowledge can then guide the design of material models, focus test objectives in larger arcjets, reduce facility-development risk, and improve the physical basis of high-enthalpy ground testing. This work will present the ARCTRON architecture, operating modes, diagnostic suite, and digital experimental workflow. Initial experimental results from the first integrated operation of the facility will be presented, including flow characterization, power limitations, and deployment of the initial diagnostic suite. Ongoing development efforts aimed at catalycity characterization, magnetic plasma control, and advanced optical diagnostics will also be discussed, illustrating how the platform supports rapid iteration from concept to experiment.

experimental diagnostics↗

DOE OSTI2017

Bayesian calibration of groundwater models with input data uncertainty

Effective water resources management typically relies on numerical models to analyze groundwater flow and solute transport processes. Groundwater models are often subject to input data uncertainty, as some inputs (such as recharge and well pumping rates) are estimated and subject to uncertainty. Current practices of groundwater model calibration often overlook uncertainties in input data; this can lead to biased parameter estimates and compromised predictions. Through a synthetic case study of surface–ground water interaction under changing pumping conditions and land use, we investigate the impacts of uncertain pumping and recharge rates on model calibration and uncertainty analysis. We then present a Bayesian framework of model calibration to handle uncertain input of groundwater models. The framework implements a marginalizing step to account for input data uncertainty when evaluating likelihood. It was found that not accounting for input uncertainty may lead to biased, overconfident parameter estimates because parameters could be over–adjusted to compensate for possible input data errors. Parameter compensation can have deleterious impacts when the calibrated model is used to make forecast under a scenario that is different from calibration conditions. By marginalizing input data uncertainty, the Bayesian calibration approach effectively alleviates parameter compensation and gives more accurate predictions in the synthetic case study. The marginalizing Bayesian method also decomposes prediction uncertainty into uncertainties contributed by parameters, input data, and measurements. Furthermore, the results underscore the need to account for input uncertainty to better inform postmodeling decision making.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

The eROSITA Final Equatorial-Depth Survey (eFEDS): The AGN catalog and its X-ray spectral properties

The eROSITA Final Equatorial Depth Survey (eFEDS), observed with eROSITA ahead of its planned 4-yr all-sky survey, is the largest contiguous-field X-ray survey at present. It yielded a large sample of X-ray sources with very rich multiband photometric and spectroscopic coverage. We present here the eFEDS active galactic nuclei (AGN) catalog and the eROSITA X-ray spectral properties of the eFEDS sources. Using a Bayesian method, we performed a systematic X-ray spectral analysis for all the eFEDS sources. We adopted multiple spectral models, including single-component power-law or hot-plasma models and double-component models of a power law plus soft excess. We investigated the capacity of eROSITA X-ray spectra for constraining AGN spectral shapes through a detailed analysis of the posterior parameter probability distribution functions. Hierarchical Bayesian modeling was used to recover the spectral parameter distribution of the sample. The source fluxes and luminosities were measured from the posterior of the spectral fitting. The eFEDS AGN catalog (22 079 sources) comprises ~80% of the eFEDS point sources. Despite a large number of faint sources, our spectral fitting provides reasonable measurements of spectral shapes and intrinsic luminosities for a majority of the sources. Because of sample selection bias, this AGN catalog is dominated by X-ray unobscured sources, with an obscured (logN H > 21.5) fraction of 8%; the power-law emission of the hot corona is also relatively soft, with a typical slope of 2.0. For type-I AGN, the X-ray emission is well correlated with the UV emission with the usual anticorrelation between the X-ray to UV spectral slope α OX and the UV luminosity. The X-ray spectral properties measured with various models are presented for all the eFEDS sources.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS2014

Development of a Bayesian Belief Network Runway Incursion and Excursion Model

In a previous work, a statistical analysis of runway incursion (RI) event data was conducted to ascertain the relevance of this data to the top ten Technical Challenges (TC) of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Aviation Safety Program (AvSP). The study revealed connections to several of the AvSP top ten TC and identified numerous primary causes and contributing factors of RI events. The statistical analysis served as the basis for developing a system-level Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) model for RI events, also previously reported. Through literature searches and data analysis, this RI event network has now been extended to also model runway excursion (RE) events. These RI and RE event networks have been further modified and vetted by a Subject Matter Expert (SME) panel. The combined system-level BBN model will allow NASA to generically model the causes of RI and RE events and to assess the effectiveness of technology products being developed under NASA funding. These products are intended to reduce the frequency of runway safety incidents/accidents, and to improve runway safety in general. The development and structure of the BBN for both RI and RE events are documented in this paper.

Green, Lawrence L.↗

DOE OSTI2017

Bayesian Estimation of Thermonuclear Reaction Rates for Deuterium+Deuterium Reactions

The study of d+d reactions is of major interest since their reaction rates affect the predicted abundances of D, 3 He, and 7 Li. In particular, recent measurements of primordial D/H ratios call for reduced uncertainties in the theoretical abundances predicted by Big Bang nucleosynthesis (BBN). Different authors have studied reactions involved in BBN by incorporating new experimental data and a careful treatment of systematic and probabilistic uncertainties. To analyze the experimental data, Coc et al. used results of ab initio models for the theoretical calculation of the energy dependence of S -factors in conjunction with traditional statistical methods based on χ 2 minimization. Bayesian methods have now spread to many scientific fields and provide numerous advantages in data analysis. Astrophysical S -factors and reaction rates using Bayesian statistics were calculated by Iliadis et al. In this paper we present a similar analysis for two d+d reactions, d(d, n) 3 He and d(d, p) 3 H, that has been translated into a total decrease of the predicted D/H value by 0.16%.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Bayesian optimized collection strategies for fatigue strength testing

Abstract A statistical framework is presented enabling optimal sampling and analysis of constant life fatigue data. Protocols using Bayesian maximum entropy sampling are built based on conventional staircase and stress step methods, reducing the requirement of prior knowledge for data collection. The Bayesian Staircase method shows improved parameter estimation efficiency, and the Bayesian Stress Step method shows equal accuracy to the standard method at larger step size allowing experimentalists to lessen concerns of loading history. Statistical methods for determining model suitability are shown, highlighting the influence of protocol. Experimental validation is performed, showing the applicability of the methods in laboratory testing.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Single Gaussian process method for arbitrary tokamak regimes with a statistical analysis

Abstract Gaussian process regression is a Bayesian method for inferring profiles based on input data. The technique is increasing in popularity in the fusion community due to its many advantages over traditional fitting techniques including intrinsic uncertainty quantification and robustness to over-fitting. This work investigates the use of a new method, the change-point method, for handling the varying length scales found in different tokamak regimes. The use of the Student’s t-distribution for the Bayesian likelihood probability is also investigated and shown to be advantageous in providing good fits in profiles with many outliers. To compare different methods, synthetic data generated from analytic profiles is used to create a database enabling a quantitative statistical comparison of which methods perform the best. Using a full Bayesian approach with the change-point method, Matérn kernel for the prior probability, and Student’s t-distribution for the likelihood is shown to give the best results.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Evolutionary history, potential intermediate animal host, and cross-species analyses of SARS-CoV-2

To investigate the evolutionary history of the recent outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in China, a total of 70 genomes of virus strains from China and elsewhere with sampling dates between 24 December 2019 and 3 February 2020 were analyzed. To explore the potential intermediate animal host of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, we reanalyzed virome data sets from pangolins and representative SARS-related coronaviruses isolates from bats, with particular attention paid to the spike glycoprotein gene. We performed phylogenetic, split network, transmission network, likelihood-mapping, and comparative analyses of the genomes. Additionally, based on Bayesian time-scaled phylogenetic analysis using the tip-dating method, we estimated the time to the most recent common ancestor and evolutionary rate of SARS-CoV-2, which ranged from 22 to 24 November 2019 and 1.19 to 1.31 × 10 -3 substitutions per site per year, respectively. Our results also revealed that the BetaCoV/bat/Yunnan/RaTG13/2013 virus was more similar to the SARS-CoV-2 virus than the coronavirus obtained from the two pangolin samples (SRR10168377 and SRR10168378). We also identified a unique peptide (PRRA) insertion in the human SARS-CoV-2 virus, which may be involved in the proteolytic cleavage of the spike protein by cellular proteases, and thus could impact host range and transmissibility. Interestingly, the coronavirus carried by pangolins did not have the RRAR motif. Therefore, we concluded that the human SARS-CoV-2 virus, which is responsible for the recent outbreak of COVID-19, did not come directly from pangolins.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2019

Single‐Particle Tracking for Understanding Polydisperse Nanoparticle Dispersions

Abstract Colloidal dispersions of nanomaterials are often polydisperse in size, significantly complicating their characterization. This is particularly true for materials early in their historical development due to synthetic control, dispersion efficiency, and instability during storage. Because a wide range of system properties and technological applications depend on particle dimensions, it remains an important problem in nanotechnology to identify a method for the routine characterization of polydispersity in nanoparticle samples, especially changes over time. Commonly employed methods such as dynamic light scattering or analytical ultracentrifugation (AUC) accurately estimate only the first moment of the distribution or are not routine. In this work, the use of single‐particle tracking (SPT) to probe size distributions of common nanoparticle dispersions, including polystyrene nanoparticles, single‐walled carbon nanotubes, graphene oxide, chitosan‐tripolyphosphate, acrylate, hexagonal boron nitride, and poly(lactic‐ co ‐glycolic acid), is proposed and explored. The analysis of particle tracks is conducted using a newly developed Bayesian algorithm that is called Maximum A posteriori Nanoparticle Tracking Analysis. By combining SPT and AUC techniques, it is shown that it is possible to independently estimate the mean aspect ratio of anisotropic particles, an important characterization property. It is concluded that SPT provides a facile, rapid analytical method for routine nanomaterials characterization.

Gong, Xun↗

DOE OSTI2018

Quarkonium in-medium properties from realistic lattice NRQCD

Here, we present the final results of our high statistics study on the properties of bottomonium and charmonium at finite temperature. We focus on the temperature range around the crossover transition 150 ≤ T ≤ 410MeV, relevant for current heavy ion collision experiments. The QCD medium degrees of freedom, which consist of dynamical u,d, and s quarks and gluons are captured by realistic state-of-the art (m π ≈ 161MeV) lattice QCD simulations of the HotQCD collaboration. For the heavy quarks we deploy the non-relativistic effective field theory of QCD, NRQCD. The in-medium properties of quarkonium are deduced from their spectral functions, which are reconstructed using improved and novel Bayesian approaches. Through a systematic analysis we shed light on the origin of the discrepancies in melting temperatures previously reported in the literature, showing that they are owed to underestimated methods uncertainties of the deployed spectral reconstructions. Our simulations corroborate a picture of sequential in-medium modification, ordered according to the vacuum binding energy of the states. As a central quantitative result, our study reveals how the mass of the heavy quarkonium ground state reduces as temperature increases. The observed spectral modifications are interpreted in the light of, and compared to previous studies based on the complex lattice potential for heavy quarkonium. Furthermore for the first time we provide a robust picture of in-medium heavy quarkonium modification in the quark-gluon plasma consistent among different non-relativistic methods. We also critically discuss the perspectives for improving on these results.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2013

Uncertainty quantification of reaction mechanisms accounting for correlations introduced by rate rules and fitted Arrhenius parameters

We study correlations among uncertain Arrhenius rate parameters in a chemical model for hydrocarbon fuel-air combustion. We consider correlations induced by the use of rate rules for modeling reaction rate constants, as well as those resulting from fitting rate expressions to empirical measurements arriving at a joint probability density for all Arrhenius parameters. We focus on homogeneous ignition in a fuel-air mixture at constant-pressure. We also outline a general methodology for this analysis using polynomial chaos and Bayesian inference methods. Finally, we examine the uncertainties in both the Arrhenius parameters and in predicted ignition time, outlining the role of correlations, and considering both accuracy and computational efficiency.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2011

An optimal merging technique for high-resolution precipitation products: OPTIMAL MERGING OF PRECIPITATION METHOD

Precipitation products are currently available from various sources at higher spatial and temporal resolution than any time in the past. Each of the precipitation products has its strengths and weaknesses in availability, accuracy, resolution, retrieval techniques and quality control. By merging the precipitation data obtained from multiple sources, one can improve its information content by minimizing these issues. However, precipitation data merging poses challenges of scale-mismatch, and accurate error and bias assessment. In this paper we present Optimal Merging of Precipitation (OMP), a new method to merge precipitation data from multiple sources that are of different spatial and temporal resolutions and accuracies. This method is a combination of scale conversion and merging weight optimization, involving performance-tracing based on Bayesian statistics and trend-analysis, which yields merging weights for each precipitation data source. The weights are optimized at multiple scales to facilitate multiscale merging and better precipitation downscaling. Precipitation data used in the experiment include products from the 12-km resolution North American Land Data Assimilation (NLDAS) system, the 8-km resolution CMORPH and the 4-km resolution National Stage-IV QPE. The test cases demonstrate that the OMP method is capable of identifying a better data source and allocating a higher priority for them in the merging procedure, dynamically over the region and time period. This method is also effective in filtering out poor quality data introduced into the merging process.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

BeyondPlanck: XV. Limits on large-scale polarized anomalous microwave emission from Planck LFI and WMAP

We constrained the level of polarized anomalous microwave emission (AME) on large angular scales using Planck Low-Frequency Instrument (LFI) and WMAP polarization data within a Bayesian cosmic microwave background (CMB) analysis framework. We modeled synchrotron emission with a power-law spectral energy distribution, as well as the sum of AME and thermal dust emission through linear regression with the Planck High-Frequency Instrument (HFI) 353 GHz data. This template-based dust emission model allowed us to constrain the level of polarized AME while making minimal assumptions on its frequency dependence. We neglected CMB fluctuations, but show through simulations that these fluctuations have a minor impact on the results. We find that the resulting AME polarization fraction confidence limit is sensitive to the polarized synchrotron spectral index prior. In addition, for prior means β s < -3.1 we find an upper limit of p AME max ≲ 0.6% (95% confidence). In contrast, for means β s = -3.0, we find a nominal detection of p AME = 2.5 ± 1.0% (95% confidence). These data are thus not strong enough to simultaneously and robustly constrain both polarized synchrotron emission and AME, and our main result is therefore a constraint on the AME polarization fraction explicitly as a function of β s . Combining the current Planck and WMAP observations with measurements from high-sensitivity low-frequency experiments such as C-BASS and QUIJOTE will be critical to improve these limits further.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗